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Douglas Davenport

July 16, 2020 - MDT Alert (ZEN)

MDT Alert

I would like to make a suggestion on a debit spread and the stock is Zendesk, Inc. (ZEN).

ZEN is trading around $88.15 as I write this.

My suggestion is to trade the August monthly options that expire on August 21st.

This gives the stock about two weeks to make a move.

Here is how you open the position:

Buy to Open August 21st - $87.50 Call for $6.10

Sell to Open August 21st - $92.50 Call for $4.00

The net debit will be $2.10 per spread.

Based on the tracking portfolio, I suggest you limit the trade to a 6 lot or 1.2% of the portfolio.

The maximum gain on a six lot would be $1,450.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Douglas Davenport https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Douglas Davenport2020-07-16 15:00:262020-07-16 15:00:26July 16, 2020 - MDT Alert (ZEN)
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 16, 2020

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
July 16, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(BIOGEN’S LONG TERM UPSWING HAS BEGUN),
(BIIB), (SGMO), (RHHBY)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-07-16 11:02:192020-07-16 12:45:18July 16, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Biogens' Long Term Upswing has Begun

Biotech Letter

Biogen (BIIB) is a stock that perfectly fits the biotechnology mold.

Over the past 5 years, this Massachusetts-based company was down for roughly 25%. Five years before that though, Biogen stock catapulted 700%. A decade or so prior that, the company’s performance was flat, with a couple of extreme swings now and then.

However, the next decade could see Biogen stocks going upswing once again.

In the past 20 years, the biotechnology and healthcare sectors have been obsessed with finding a cure for cancer. With over 1.8 million fresh cases diagnosed every year, it’s understandable why the oncology space has received the most attention over the years.

Apart from cancer, companies have also made significant progress in other pressing issues like infectious diseases and cardiovascular disorders.

Now, a new market is starting to demand attention as well: the neuroscience field.

With all the demands for treatments for other diseases though, companies pulled R&D dollars away from the neuroscience budget and poured those into less risky efforts.

In comparison, Biogen doubled down spending on its neurology research.

In fact, the company has spent over $10 billion in this sector in the last 5 years. This amounts to roughly 5% of its annual market capitalization.

To bolster its neuroscience efforts, Biogen is investing in gene therapy as drivers of future growth.

Just last April, the company bought $225 million of Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) stock. On top of that, Biogen paid the smaller company $125 million for technology licensing. The deal also included up to $2.37 billion in royalties and milestone payments.

This newly established collaboration will see Sangamo working with Biogen to come up with gene therapies for various disorders, including Alzheimer’s disease and Parkinson’s disease.

 At the moment, Biogen is focusing on the development of its Alzheimer’s treatment Aducanumab.

 Alzheimer’s is a huge untapped market opportunity that presents a substantial unmet clinical demand. Right now, there are no approved treatments that could alter the natural progression of the disease.

In the US alone, there are more than 5.8 million people living with Alzheimer’s and about 500,000 new cases added annually.  

This target makes Biogen’s Alzheimer’s treatment Aducanumab a potential mega-blockbuster.

Biogen’s estimated annual cost per patient for Aducanumab is $30,000.

With the number of Alzheimer’s patients in the US at the moment, back of the napkin math shows that Aducanumab can easily generate $15 billion in sales for Biogen.

Meanwhile, peak sales for this treatment could hit $20 billion — and this could even be an underestimate.

Projecting it further to 10 years down the line and putting Biogen’s market penetration at just 50%, assuming that the number of cases remains flat, then Aducanumab could reach 2.9 million users.

This means an annual astronomical cost of $87 billion for the Alzheimer’s market.

Let’s say Biogen is eventually asked to lower the price for the treatment to be accommodated by Medicare.

We use just a third of the $30,000, which puts the Alzheimer’s treatment at $10,000 each year for every patient instead. This would still rake in an impressive $29 billion for Biogen -- and these numbers only cover the US.

If we assume that the demand from the rest of the world matches the US sales, then global demand for Aducanumab could generate over $60 billion in a year based on our $10,000 per patient each year estimate.

Going back to Biogen’s initial $30,000 projection, then annual sales would reach a jaw-dropping $180 billion.

Sticking to the $60 billion per year estimate, Biogen can easily climb to $250 billion in market capitalization in the next 10 years --- an incredible jump from the $42.79 billion it has right now. The company’s shares could trade north of $1,500, providing its investors with over 400% return.

As a Roche (RRHBY) leader aptly described, “neuroscience has the potential to be in the ‘20s what oncology has been in the last decade.”

Now, Biogen is the undisputed leader in terms of pipeline candidates for the field. It has transformed itself into a research powerhouse in anticipation of its dominance in what could be the most important medical breakthroughs over the next decade or two.  

After all, scientific breakthroughs allow us to live longer. In effect, a good part of our population will eventually face neurological problems that crop up later in life.

Hence, Biogen is poised to lead the charge in this grossly underserved market. The fact that the company has been keeping its pedal to the metal in terms of its R&D efforts further all but guarantees its dominance in the years to come.

biogen stock

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-07-16 11:00:152020-07-17 16:48:54Biogens' Long Term Upswing has Begun
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 16, 2020 - MDT Pro Tips

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-07-16 09:43:512020-07-16 09:43:51July 16, 2020 - MDT Pro Tips
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 16, 2020

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
July 16, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE TRADE OF THE CENTURY IS SETTING UP),
(TLT),
(A COW-BASED ECONOMICS LESSON)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-07-16 09:06:362020-07-16 11:34:00July 16, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 15, 2020

Tech Letter



Mad Hedge Technology Letter
July 15, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(CLOUD 101)
(AMZN), (MSFT), (GOOGL), (DOCU), (CRM), (ZS)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-07-15 14:04:432020-07-15 17:10:42July 15, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Cloud 101

Tech Letter

If you've been living under a rock the past few years, the cloud phenomenon hasn't passed you by and you still have time to cash in.

You want to hitch your wagon to cloud-based investments in any way, shape, or form.

Amazon leads the cloud industry it created.

It still maintains more than 30% of the cloud market. Microsoft would need to gain a lot of ground to even come close to this jewel of a business.

Amazon (AMZN) relies on AWS to underpin the rest of its businesses and that is why AWS contributes most of Amazon's total operating income.

Total revenue for just the AWS division would operate as a healthy stand-alone tech company if need be.

The future is about the cloud.

These days, the average investor probably hears about the cloud a dozen times a day.

If you work in Silicon Valley, you can triple that figure.

So, before we get deep into the weeds with this letter on cloud services, cloud fundamentals, cloud plays, and cloud Trade Alerts, let's get into the basics of what the cloud actually is.

Think of this as a cloud primer.

It's important to understand the cloud, both its strengths and limitations.

Giant companies that have it figured out, such as Salesforce (CRM) and Zscaler (ZS), are some of the fastest-growing companies in the world.

Understand the cloud and you will readily identify its bottlenecks and bulges that can lead to extreme investment opportunities. And that's where I come in.

Cloud storage refers to the online space where you can store data. It resides across multiple remote servers housed inside massive data centers all over the country, some as large as football fields, often in rural areas where land, labor, and electricity are cheap.

They are built using virtualization technology, which means that storage space spans across many different servers and multiple locations. If this sounds crazy, remember that the original Department of Defense packet-switching design was intended to make the system atomic bomb proof.

As a user, you can access any single server at any one time anywhere in the world. These servers are owned, maintained, and operated by giant third-party companies such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet (GOOGL), which may or may not charge a fee for using them.

The most important features of cloud storage are:

1) It is a service provided by an external provider.

2) All data is stored outside your computer residing inside an in-house network.

3) A simple Internet connection will allow you to access your data at any time from anywhere.

4) Because of all these features, sharing data with others is vastly easier, and you can even work with multiple people online at the same time, making it the perfect, collaborative vehicle for our globalized world.

Once you start using the cloud to store a company's data, the benefits are many.

  1. No Maintenance

Many companies, regardless of their size, prefer to store data inside in-house servers and data centers.

However, these require constant 24-hour-a-day maintenance, so the company has to employ a large in-house IT staff to manage them - a costly proposition.

Thanks to cloud storage, businesses can save costs on maintenance since their servers are now the headache of third-party providers.

Instead, they can focus resources on the core aspects of their business where they can add the most value, without worrying about managing IT staff of prima donnas.

  1. Greater Flexibility

Today's employees want to have a better work/life balance and this goal can be best achieved by letting them telecommute. Increasingly, workers are bending their jobs to fit their lifestyles, and that is certainly the case here at Mad Hedge Fund Trader.

How else can I send off a Trade Alert while hanging from the face of a Swiss Alp?

Cloud storage services, such as Google Drive, offer exactly this kind of flexibility for employees.

With data stored online, it's easy for employees to log into a cloud portal, work on the data they need to, and then log off when they're done. This way a single project can be worked on by a global team, the work handed off from time zone to time zone until it's done.

It also makes them work more efficiently, saving money for penny-pinching entrepreneurs.

  1. Better Collaboration and Communication

In today's business environment, it's common practice for employees to collaborate and communicate with co-workers located around the world.

For example, they may have to work on the same client proposal together or provide feedback on training documents. Cloud-based tools from DocuSign, Dropbox, and Google Drive make collaboration and document management a piece of cake.

These products, which all offer free entry-level versions, allow users to access the latest versions of any document so they can stay on top of real-time changes which can help businesses to better manage workflow, regardless of geographical location.

  1. Data Protection

Another important reason to move to the cloud is for better protection of your data, especially in the event of a natural disaster. Hurricane Sandy wreaked havoc on local data centers in New York City, forcing many websites to shut down their operations for days.

The cloud simply routes traffic around problem areas as if, yes, they have just been destroyed by a nuclear attack.

It's best to move data to the cloud, to avoid such disruptions because there your data will be stored in multiple locations.

This redundancy makes it so that even if one area is affected, your operations don't have to capitulate, and data remains accessible no matter what happens. It's a system called deduplication.

  1. Lower Overhead

The cloud can save businesses a lot of money.

By outsourcing data storage to cloud providers, businesses save on capital and maintenance costs, money that in turn can be used to expand the business. Setting up an in-house data center requires tens of thousands of dollars in investment, and that's not to mention the maintenance costs it carries.

Plus, considering the security, reduced lag, up-time and controlled environments that providers such as Amazon's AWS have, creating an in-house data center seems about as contemporary as a buggy whip, a corset, or a Model T.

cloud storage

 

cloud storage

 

cloud storage

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-07-15 14:02:202020-07-16 09:05:33Cloud 101
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (TLT) July 15, 2020 - SELL-TAKE PROFITS

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-07-15 10:12:482020-07-15 10:14:25Trade Alert - (TLT) July 15, 2020 - SELL-TAKE PROFITS
Douglas Davenport

July 15, 2020 - MDT Alert (QQQ)

MDT Alert

I mentioned this morning that I would be looking to close the QQQ debit spread we placed yesterday.

There are two main reasons for this.

The first is that I did not suggest you buy a lot of time.

And the second is that the QQQ is flirting with the upper band on the daily chart.

Also, the QQQ is trading around $262 as I write this, which is around the price objective I was looking for.

Here is how you close the position:

Sell to Close July 24th - $257 Call for $8.60

Buy to Close July 24th - $263 Call for $5.00

The net credit will be $3.60 per spread.

The net is a profit of $1.60 per spread or $640 if you traded the suggested 4 lot.

The overnight return is 80%.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Douglas Davenport https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Douglas Davenport2020-07-15 10:11:322020-07-15 10:11:32July 15, 2020 - MDT Alert (QQQ)
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 15, 2020 - MDT Pro Tips

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-07-15 09:32:482020-07-15 09:32:48July 15, 2020 - MDT Pro Tips
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