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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

How CVS is Basking in the Corona Sunlight

Biotech Letter

Including a brand-name business to your stock investing portfolio is a wise way to handle even the steepest downturn in the history of trading.

Despite these recent catastrophic losses, history also reminds us that bear markets present buying opportunities -- with two pretty self-explanatory caveats.

One is that investors must only shell out cash to buy into high-quality businesses. The second warning is that investors should be patient in waiting for their investments to make money in the long run.

Those checking out the healthcare sector now have the opportunity to add a large-cap stock and the biggest pharmacy chain operator in the country: CVS Health (CVS). 

Most of us are familiar with CVS Health since it's a widely popular retail pharmacy. Actually, CVS fulfills 1 of every 4 retail pharmacy prescriptions in the US. That’s roughly 26.6% of the entire population.

Now, my primary reason for suggesting CVS is that it’s the go-to place for customers during and even in the absence of the COVID-19 pandemic.

In a regular buying climate, the company is set to rake in long-term gains, thanks to the daily essentials in its catalog ranging from toothpaste to lifesaving prescriptions.

During this ongoing health crisis, CVS proved to be even more valuable to consumers. In fact, the company is expected to explore a new market once the country returns to its normal state.

With the spectrum of services offered by the company, CVS manages to cater to practically all the needs expected from the healthcare system.

Apart from its retail pharmacies and clinics, it also has a dedicated senior pharmacy sector that takes care of over 1 million patients every year.

CVS serves more than 37 million in terms of traditional healthcare insurance offerings while its pharmacy benefit manager operation looks after roughly 105 million individuals -- that’s nearly a third of the country’s population.

It was in late 2018 when CVS made a meaningful transaction courtesy of the acquisition of health insurer Aetna. The deal, which amounted to approximately $70 billion, was hailed as a game-changer for the retail giant.

Although it can be unusual to regard an insurance company as a fast-growing business, the addition of Aetna played a key role in CVS’ organic growth rate. This acquisition is estimated to provide a boost in the company’s sales, with the full impact of the deal expected to be realized sometime between 2020 and 2021.

In terms of revenue growth, CVS saw a 32% growth from its 2018 earnings to reach a total of $256.7 billion in 2019. Realistically though, this may not be the typical growth pace for the company. The jump may be primarily due to the Aetna deal.

CVS Health’s largest segment is still its pharmacy services division, which generated $141.5 billion in sales, recording a net income of $5.1 billion. Its retail sector raked in $86.6 billion while its healthcare benefits sector brought in $69.6 billion.

For 2020, CVS is anticipated to have a cash flow somewhere between $10.5 billion and $11 billion.

Although its business has been doing quite well despite the pandemic, with the company adding 50,000 positions just last March, CVS remains on the lookout for interesting business ventures.

One of its recent experiments is working with UPS (UPS) in the latter’s drone service called UPS Flight Forward. Basically, the two companies joined forces to fly prescription drugs to the customers in a Florida retirement community.

The “test” community is the biggest retirement community in the US called The Villages. This is located near Orlando, which is home to more than 135,000 residents.

This joint effort is anticipated to bolster the demand in nearby areas as well, with CVS and UPS eyeing the expansion of their operations in a month or so.

With almost 9,900 retail branches, 1,100 walk-in clinics across the country, and the addition of this new partnership with UPS, CVS has definitely earned its title as the “trust front door to healthcare.”

Pharmacies are not considered exciting businesses. Basically, these are convenience stores that just happen to offer prescription drugs as well. 

Although that might be true, CVS Health is not your run-of-the-mill pharmacy. Truth be told, the chain’s terrifying efficiency is gradually replacing your doctor.

At the moment, CVS pays its shareholders $0.50 in dividends every quarter. While the payouts have not increased since 2017, the dividend still yields a decent 3.2% annually. It’s a respectable payout and one that’s not in any imminent danger despite the ongoing crisis. 

Taking into consideration its valuation, CVS Health can be purchased for roughly over 7 times its Wall Street profit estimate for 2021.

No company of this caliber has been this cheap in the past decade.

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

May 7, 2020 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-05-07 09:23:172020-05-07 09:23:17May 7, 2020 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

May 7, 2020

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
May 7, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(HOW TO EXECUTE A VERTICAL BULL CALL SPREAD)
(AAPL)
(DINING WITH THE BOTTOM 20%)
(TESTIMONIAL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-05-07 09:08:322020-05-07 09:07:51May 7, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (SPY) May 6, 2020 - SELL-TAKE PROFITS

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-05-06 11:13:412020-05-06 11:47:37Trade Alert - (SPY) May 6, 2020 - SELL-TAKE PROFITS
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (TLT) May 6, 2020 - SELL-TAKE PROFITS

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-05-06 10:35:112020-05-06 10:35:11Trade Alert - (TLT) May 6, 2020 - SELL-TAKE PROFITS
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (TLT) May 6, 2020 - SELL-TAKE PROFITS

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-05-06 09:58:192020-05-06 09:58:19Trade Alert - (TLT) May 6, 2020 - SELL-TAKE PROFITS
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

May 6, 2020 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-05-06 09:34:092020-05-06 09:34:09May 6, 2020 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

May 6, 2020

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
May 6, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE GOLDEN AGE OF BIG TECH HAS ONLY JUST BEGUN)
(AMZN), (MSFT), (AAPL), (FB), (GOOGL), (ZM)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-05-06 09:04:022020-05-06 09:38:48May 6, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Golden Age of Big Tech Has Only Just Begun

Tech Letter

The tech market is telling us that the effects of coronavirus on the U.S. economy have accelerated the Golden Age of Big Tech pulling it forward to 2021.

You know, Big Tech is having their time in the sun when unscrupulous personal data seller Facebook is experiencing 10 times growth with its live camera product Portal video during the health crisis.

That is the type of clout big tech has accumulated in the era of Covid-19 and investors will need to focus on these companies first when putting together a high-quality tech portfolio.

Every investor needs upside exposure to a group of assets that is locked into the smartphone ecosphere.

There are no excuses.

Smartphones, although not a new technology, is now a utility, and the further away from the smartphone revenue stream you get, business is nothing short of catastrophic minus healthcare.

The health scare has ultimately justified the mammoth valuations of over $1 trillion that Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon command.  

The next stop is easily $2 trillion and then some.

Consumers are so much more digitized in this day and age weaving in a tapestry of assets such as the iPhone at Apple, advertising at Facebook, and search ads at Google.

Can the coronavirus keep the digital economy down?

Green shoots are certainly popping up with regular consistency.

Facebook and Google have said that digital advertising has “stabilized.”

Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Facebook, and Google each reported financial results in the past week with profits and revenue that, while hit by the closure of the economy, still outperformed relative to the broader market.

Investors already priced in that Apple's iPhone sales temporarily disappeared, that Google's and Facebook's advertising revenue dropped and that Amazon is spending big to keep warehouse workers safe.

Forward expectations can only go north at this point reflecting a giant bull wave of buying that has benefited tech stocks.

Other top tier companies not in the FANG bracket have also gone gangbusters.

Zoom has turned into an overnight sensation now replacing all face-to-face meetings, sparking competition with Microsoft's Teams video chat and Google Meet.

The market grab that big tech has partaken in will position them as the major revenue accumulators for the next 25 years.

Unsurprisingly, Apple was the canary in the coal mine by calling out a dip in iPhone sales and manufacturing in China earlier in the year.

While iPhone's sales did fall, down nearly 7%, to $28.9 billion, its revenues from services and wearables, two categories that have been rising steadily for years, jumped 16.5% and 22.5% respectively.

Chip giant Qualcomm said phone shipments will likely drop about 30% around the globe in the June quarter while Apple rival Samsung, said phone and TV sales will "decline significantly" because of the coronavirus.

Google’s YouTube has grown 33% while the video giant keeps us entertained and Microsoft’s Xbox Game Pass subscription service notched more than 10 million subscribers.

Facebook said nearly 3 billion people use its collection of chat apps representing an 11% jump from a year ago.

Everywhere we turn, relative outperformance is evident which in turn minimizes the absolute underperformance in year to year growth.

The market is looking through and putting a premium on the relative outperformance.

Many are coming to the realization that the economy and population will live with the virus until there is a proper vaccine, meaning an elongated period of time where consumers are overloading big tech with higher than average usage.

President Trump’s chief economic adviser Larry Kudlow is projecting that the U.S. economy next year could see “one of the greatest economic growth rates.”

I would adjust that comment to say that big tech is tipped to be the largest winner of this monster rebound in 2021 putting the rest of the broader market on its back.

This is quickly turning into two economies – tech and everybody else.

The eyeballs won’t necessarily translate into a waterfall of revenue right away because of the nature of all the free services that they provide.

But at the beginning of 2021, a higher incremental portion of consumer’s salaries will be directed towards big tech and the fabulous paid services they offer.

Actions speak louder than words and Berkshire Hathaway’s Warren Buffett unloading billions in airline stocks is an ominous sign indicating that parts of the U.S. economy won’t come back to pre-virus levels.

The biggest takeaway in Buffet’s commentary is that he elected to not sell tech stocks like his big position in Apple validating my thesis that any investor not already in big tech will flood big tech with even more capital after being burnt in retail, energy, hotels, and airlines.

Then, when you consider the ironclad nature of tech’s balance sheets, even in the apocalyptical conditions, they will profit and rip away even market share from the weak.

It’s to the point where any financial advisor who doesn’t recommend big tech as the nucleus of their portfolios is most likely underperforming the wider market.

As the U.S. economy triggers the reopening mechanisms and we enter into the real meat and bones of the reopening, data will recover significantly signaling yet another leg up in tech shares.

Hold onto your hat!

 

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

May 6, 2020 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“I want to put a ding in the universe.” – Said Co-Founder of Apple Steve Jobs

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