I am often asked which semiconductor company to buy. After all, this is not just the high beta play for the stock market as a whole, but the entire economy as well.
When times are good, consumers can’t get enough chips to stockpile. When they are bad, they are used as landfill. Semiconductors are the economy on a bungee cord.
For the past five years, the answer was always the same: top-end graphics card maker Nvidia (NVDA).
It was a great call. Since my initial recommendation in 2015, the stock has soared by tenfold, one of several ten-baggers I have been able to rake in during recent years.
Now it’s time to call the next ten-bagger.
That’s easy enough: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD).
(AMD) is an American multinational semiconductor company based in Santa Clara, California that develops computer processors and related technologies for business and consumer markets.
While it initially manufactured its own processors, the company later outsourced all its manufacturing, a practice known as going fabless, after GlobalFoundries was spun off in 2009. Chip foundry Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) currently produces (AMD)'s chips.
AMD's main products include microprocessors, motherboard chipsets, embedded processors, and graphics processors for servers, workstations, personal computers, and embedded system applications.
In 2019, (AMD) brought in $6.48 billion in revenues, $631 million in operating revenue, and $341 million in net profits. It pays no dividend. For the current quarter, (AMD) expects revenue to rise an eye-popping 42% year over year to $2.55 billion.
The company was considered a lagging “also ran” for years, the poor cousin of Intel (INTC), Micron Technology (MU), and powerhouse Nvidia (NVDA).
Then Lisa Hsu took over in 2014. It has been straight up ever since. She immediately launched into a new generation of faster and more efficient chips, such as the Ryzen PC processors and Epyc server chips in 2017.
(AMD) now expects to ship its first revolutionary 7-nanometer processors in late 2022 or early 2023. Next to follow will be once unimaginable 3-nanometer processors. Now we are trying to get single electrons to go through gates.
AMD is also working with Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) and nearby Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory on the El Capitan supercomputer for the U.S. Department of Energy. That gives the company another big advantage in developing new chip technologies.
As a result of (AMD)’s Herculean efforts, Intel was left behind in the dust, as its share price amply demonstrates.
Despite its recent ballistic growth (AMD) is still the smaller of the major chip companies. Its market capitalization stands at only $90 billion, compared to $209 billion for fading (INTC) and a monster $308 billion for (NVDA). Yet (AMD) boasts a higher growth rate.
If a global economic recovery ensues in 2021, (AMD) will be your play. As the move online vastly accelerates thanks to the pandemic, a global chip shortage is in the cards. Earnings, multiples, and share prices should all go up. The recent economic data from China shows that we are certainly headed in that direction.
Use this major selloff to stick your toe into (AMD).
To learn more about Advanced Micro Devices, please visit their website by clicking here.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/amd-logo.png236236Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2020-09-25 11:02:252020-09-25 14:42:34Here is My Next Chip Ten-Bagger
I have to admit that I have been buying into Elon Musk’s vision since I first met him more than 20 years ago, back in his PayPal days. He could see how the future would unroll for the next 50 years.
That has delivered the best investment of my lifetime, with my Tesla shares (TSLA) up 151X from my initial $16.50 cost.
Thanks to Elon, my home is now completely grid-independent, with 59 solar panels and three 13.5-watt Tesla Powerwalls. I am only connected to PG&E so I can sell them my excess power at afternoon peak prices. In the mornings, I recharge my batteries. That’s a cool thing to have when your local utility completely shuts off power for six days a year.
So it was with some enthusiasm that I attended Tesla’s annual shareholder meeting and Battery Day.
Elon Musk was there with all his swagger and confidence in front of a giant screen. The audience was limited to those sitting in Teslas to enable social distancing, and when they approved, they honked horns instead of clapping.
It was a noisy event.
The past five years have been hottest on record. Climate change is accelerating, so the time to step up the move to a truly sustainable grid is here. It is nothing less than a matter of survival of the species. As Musk spoke, pictures of San Francisco's recent orange days, when you could see 100 feet, flashed up on the screen. A hundred-fold increase in our efforts is called for.
The good news is that 76% of the new electricity generation built this year will be wind and solar, or 32 GW. In 2010, 46% of electricity was coal-generated. Today it is half. Trump promises to rescue the industry came to nothing.
Even if 100% of new electricity generation comes from alternatives, it would take 25 years to convert the entire national grid. There is not enough time left to accomplish this to avoid environmental catastrophe.
The three legs of the future of power are solar power, solar storage, and electric cars.
Tesla has made a major contribution so far in all of these, with over 1 million electric cars produced, 26 billion electric car miles driven, 5 GWh of stationary batteries installed (I have 40.5 Watts), and 17 terawatt-hours of solar power generated.
The Shanghai Tesla factory went from a pile of dirt to mass production in an amazing 15 months, and that facility will soon be doubled in size.
“Tera is the new giga,” said Elon. A terawatt is 1,000 times more power than a gigawatt.
The world needs 10 terawatt-hours of new battery production a year to transition the global car fleet to all-electric in 15 years. We need 1,600 fold growth in battery efficiencies to convert the entire grid to electric. That means we need 25 terawatt-hours a year for 15 years. That is Tesla’s goal.
Tesla’s present Nevada Gigafactory is producing only 1.5 terawatt-hours a year in batteries. Would need 135 more factories to meet the above demand with current technology.
To achieve this, Tesla needs to make cars cheaper. The cost per kilowatt is not improving fast enough.
Tesla’s current plan to cut battery costs by half working by improving every one of the dozens of steps of production.
The newest battery design brings 6X increase in energy density levels, will begin mass production in a year in Fremont. Interestingly, Musk relied on existing paper and mottle mass production as models. The design is too complex to describe here but is brilliant. It’s easier to understand with the graphics found in the YouTube video below.
Down the road, dry electrodes will bring further 10X improvement in power. New machine designs and processes will bring a 7X improvement in output. Tesla’s plan is to achieve a further 75% improvement in the cost of production. The eventual goal is to make Tesla the best manufacturer on earth.
By 2022, Tesla will see a 100 GWh production increase in batteries and 3 terawatt-hours by 2030. That is a 30-fold jump.
Silicon is the most abundant element in the world after oxygen and will be used to replace existing graphite chemistry. Moving from processed silicon to raw silicon will deliver cheaper anodes and an 18% cheaper battery. Cathodes will use nickel-manganese allowing an 80% cost reduction.
Some 100% of batteries are now recycled, will eventually become sole source of raw materials for new batteries. Thus, it will become a super-efficient closed cycle.
Tesla will also reduce car costs by casting the battery as a single piece of the car body. The aircraft industry first accomplished this with fuel tanks during WWII. This alone would eliminate unnecessary 370 parts.
The next upgrade in design and manufacturing will take three years to implement and deliver a 69% reduction in cost creating a “compelling” $25,000 car that is fully autonomous and will not need maintenance.
This chops the lifetime cost of Teslas by half when compared to conventional gasoline-powered engines. If Musk can deliver on this promise, General Motors (GM) and Ford Motors (F) are toast.
Tesla is also developing a new supercar. The Tesla Plaid Model S will have a 520-mile range, go from zero to 60 miles per hour in under two seconds, and offer a positively bestial 1100 horsepower motor. You can order yours at the end of 2021. No price was mentioned, but my guess is somewhere north of $250,000.
I already have the Model X with “ludicrous” mode that catapults from 0 to 60 in 2.9 seconds and just that presents a major whiplash risk.
After the event finished, it was clear that the stock market was not drinking the Kool-Aide, Tesla shares diving 5%. It turned out to be a big “buy the rumor, sell the news” event. When traders hear the words “long-term” they glaze over and run a mile.
We may need to wait for the next cycle of upgrades and product announcements to achieve a true upside breakout.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/tesla-vertical-integration-e1600950014671.png279500Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2020-09-24 09:02:502020-09-24 09:02:04Elon’s Battery Day Blowout
Last weekend, I had dinner with one of the oldest and best performing technology managers in Silicon Valley. We met at a small out of the way restaurant in Oakland near Jack London Square so no one would recognize us. It was blessed with a very wide sidewalk out front and plenty of patio tables to meet current COVID-19 requirements.
The service was poor and the food indifferent as are most dining experiences these days. I ordered via a QR code menu and paid with a touchless Square swipe.
I wanted to glean from my friend the names of the best tech stocks to own for the long term right now, the kind you can pick up and forget about for a decade or more, a “lose behind the radiator” portfolio.
To get this information I had to promise the utmost confidentiality. If I mentioned his name, you would say “oh my gosh!”
Amazon (AMZN) is now his largest holding, the current leader in cloud computing. Only 5% of the world’s workload is on the cloud presently so we are still in the early innings of a hyper-growth phase there.
By the time you price in all the transportation, labor, and warehousing costs, Amazon breaks even with its online retail business at best. The mistake people make is only focusing on this lowest of margin businesses.
It’s everything else that’s so interesting. While its profitability is quite low compared to the other FANG stocks, Amazon has the best growth outlook. For a start, third party products hosted on the Amazon site, most of what Amazon sells, offer hefty 30% margins.
Amazon Web Services (AWS) has grown from a money loser to a huge earner in just four years. It’s a productivity improvement machine for the world’s cloud infrastructure where they pass all cost increases on to the customer who, once in, buys more services.
Apple (AAPL) is his second holding. The company is in transition now justifying a massive increase in earnings multiples, from 9X to 40X. It now trades at 30X. The iPhone has become an indispensable device for people around the world, and it is the services sold through the phone that are key.
The iPhone is really not a communications device but a selling device, be it for apps, storage, music, or third party services. The cream on top is that Apple is at the very beginning of an enormous replacement cycle for its installed base of over one billion phones. Moving from up-front sales to a lifetime subscription model will also give it the boost.
Half of these are more than four years old, positively geriatric in the tech world. More than half of these are outside the US. 5G will add a turbocharger.
Netflix (NFLX) is another favorite. The world is moving to “over the top” content delivery and Netflix is already spending twice as much on content as any other company in this area. This is why the company won an amazing 21 Emmys this year. This will become a much more profitable company as it grows its subscriber base and amortizes its content costs. Their cash flow is growing by leaps and bounds, which they can use to buy back stock or pay a dividend.
Generally speaking, there is no doubt that the pandemic has pulled forward some future technology demand with the stay-at-home trend. But these companies have delivered normal growth in a hard world. Tech growth will accelerate in 2021 and 2022.
5G will enable better Internet coverage for everyone and will increase the competitiveness of the telecom companies. Factory automation will be another big area for 5G, as it is reliable and secure and can be integrated with artificial intelligence.
Transportation will benefit greatly. Connected self-driving cars will be a big deal, improving safety and the quality of life.
My friend is not as worried about government threatened breakups as regulation. There will be more restraints on what these companies can do going forward. Europe, which has no big tech companies if its own, views big American tech companies simply as a source of revenues through fines. Driving companies out of business through cutthroat competition is simply not something Europeans believe in.
Google (GOOG) is probably more subject to antitrust proceedings both in Europe and the US. The founders have both retired to pursue philanthropic activities, so you no longer have the old passion (“don’t be evil”).
Both Google and Facebook (FB) control 70% of the advertising market between them, which is inherently a slow-growing market, expanding at 5% a year at best. (FB)’s growth has slowed dramatically, while it has reversed at (GOOG).
He is a big fan of (AMD), one of his biggest positions, which is undervalued relative to the other chip companies. They out-executed Intel (INTC) over the last five years and should pass it over the next five years.
He has raised value tech stocks from 15% to 30% of his portfolio. Apple used to be one of these. Semiconductor companies today also fall into this category. Samsung with 40% margins in its memory business is a good example. Selling for 10X earnings, it is ridiculously cheap. It is just a matter of time before semiconductors get rerated too.
He was an early owner of Tesla (TSLA) back in the nail-biting days when it was constantly running out of cash. Now they have the opposite problem, using their easy access to cash through new share issues as a weapon to fight off the other EV startups. Tesla is doing to Detroit what Apple did to the cell phone companies, redefining the car.
Its stock is overvalued now but will become much more profitable than people realize. They also are starting to extract services revenues from their cars, like Apple has. Tesla will grow revenues 30%-50% a year for the next two or three years. They should sell several million of the new small SUV Model Y. Most other companies bringing EVs will fall on their faces.
EVs are a big factor in climate change, even in China, the world’s biggest polluter. In Europe, they are legislating gasoline cars out of existence. If you can make money building cars in Fremont, CA, you can make a fortune building them in China.
Tech valuations are high, there is no doubt about it. But interest rates are much lower by comparison. The Fed is forcing people to buy stocks, enabling these companies to evolve even faster.
When rates rise in a year or so, tech stocks may have to come down. They have a lot more things going for them than against them. The customers keep coming back for more.
Needless to say, the above stocks should make up your shortlist for LEAPS to buy at the coming market bottom.
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I very rarely publish the works of other financial writers, as I usually have a hundred research ideas of my own in the works and lack the time to get them out.
However, I will make an exception for last week’s Barron’s piece on options trading written by Steven M. Sears.
I have spent the past 13 years teaching investors how to trade options. This is more important than ever, now that the hedging of options accounts for more than 50% of all stock market daily volume.
Those who get it make millions and this year, in particular, seems to have produced a bumper crop of new fortunes.
It’s really not all that hard as I know many who are complete dummies on all other matters but earn a decent living trading options. All they need is to follow a few valuable rules that have stood the test of time.
I could add to this list as I possess additional skills and experience that other options traders and Barron’s writers lack, but the ten tips below are a great start.
Needless to say, following the Mad Hedge Fund Trader is crucial in best obtaining the correct timing in implementing these rules.
1) Have an investment thesis. Know why you are doing what you are about to do. Focus on events like earnings reports or product launches and try to figure out how the underlying stock might react.
2) Use your opinion on the stock to decide whether you will buy or sell a call or put option. Don’t delude yourself into thinking you have an educated view of options contracts until you have traded for a few years and understand how the stock and options markets work with each other.
3) Focus on options that expire in three months or less. The sweet spot for many investors is about 30 to 45 days, which is enough time to benefit from time decay (more on that later) and for your stock thesis to work itself out without paying top dollar.
4) Before you buy or sell options, divide the contract’s implied volatility by 16. This will tell you what the options market thinks the stock will do each day through expiration. If the call has an 80% volatility, the call is priced as if the stock will move 5% each day until expiration. If you think the stock will move more, buy the contract, If, you think it will move less, sell the contract. The Rule of 16 is a powerful tool.
5) Good trading is about understanding events and how they are packed into your expiration. Understand everything that could happen to move the stock during your chosen expiration cycle, such as earnings reports, and anything that could move the entire market, like Federal Reserve meetings, elections, and economic reports.
6) Options contracts lose a little value each day. Time decay, or “theta,” is a powerful force that can be monetized by options sales. It’s also the reason that many investors try to trade options that expire in under a month. No one wants to pay a time premium, which you can think of as the inventory carrying cost for owning options.
7) If you are thematically confident on a stock but unsure of the timeline, many institutions buy options that expire in a year or more to rent exposure to the stock. If the stock goes up, the call goes up. If the trade fails, options always cost less than the associated stock, which means that options, when well used, help investors limit risk.
8) Don’t be a pig. If you make 50% or more on your initial trades, take profits. If you make 100% or more, definitely take profits. If you are so convinced that the market is wrong and you are right, take out your initial invested capital so you are playing with house money.
9) Be afraid of excess leverage. Options contracts represent 100 shares of stock. Don’t trade 10 contracts if you cannot afford to cover 1,000 shares of stock. All tyros should trade one or two contracts at a time until they develop some mastery of basic trading rules. Never trade “naked” contracts that aren’t covered by cash or stock.
10) Simplicity is everything. Avoid strategies with many moving parts. Many seasoned options traders focus on hitting singles and doubles, creating significant income for themselves. Master buying a call and put and selling a call and put, and then consider spread strategies.
When in doubt, remember: Bad investors think of ways to make money. Good investors think of ways to not lose money.
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I had the pleasure of meeting Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg only last year. She was funny, a great storyteller, and smart as a tack. If she disagreed with you, she pounced like a lion with a prescient one-liner.
She was also a goldmine of historical anecdotes about American history over the past 60 years, recalling incidents seen from her front-row seat as if they had happened yesterday.
She was also frail and rail-thin as if a faint breeze could knock her over at any time. Contracting cancer five times will do this to a person. Assistants helped her walk.
Her unexpected passing is now on the verge of creating a new financial crisis. Any chance of passing further stimulus in the US congress has just turned to ashes. The focus in Washington has turned entirely to the Supreme Court for the rest of 2020.
As a result, tens of thousands more small business will go under, millions of families will be thrown out on to the street, and the Great Depression will drag on. There is nothing left to spike the punch bowl with.
The Dow Average on Monday morning will open down 1,000 points, led by Tesla (TSLA) and the big technology stocks. US Treasury bonds (TLT) will rocket $5. The US dollar (UUP) will soar on a flight to safety bid.
Traders were already cutting positions and scaling back risk to duck the coming turmoil of the presidential election. We are also trying to front-run a yearend stock selloff prompted by a Biden rise in the capital gains tax from 21% to 40%.
That’s a bit of a moot point as 75% of stock ownership is owned by tax-exempt funds. The remaining 25% is most tied up in institutions that duck the tax by never selling or are embedded on corporate cross ownerships which never change.
Now we have uncertainty with a turbocharger, with gasoline poured in the air intake (pilot talk).
With Democrats refighting the battle of the Alamo, I doubt that Trump can ram through a third Supreme Court nomination. Remember how the last one went, for Brett Cavanaugh? Filibusters alone could delay proceeding by a month. These are NOT developments that make stocks go up.
If Trump succeeds, it may be a pyrrhic victory, costing Republicans at least five Senate seats, losing a majority, and increasing the margin of a presidential loss. If retired astronaut wins the Senate in Arizona on November 3, only two Republicans need to fold to make a Supreme Court nomination impossible.
It’s not like the stock market was in such great shape going into this, the biggest black swan of 2020. The market is being flooded with high priced initial public offerings, some 12 in the coming week alone. Apparently, there is an extreme shortage of high growth large-cap technology stocks and Silicon Valley is more than happy to meet that demand.
Cloud storage player Snowflake (SNOW) saw price talk at $70, an IPO of $120, and a first-day peak of $275. This created $70 billion in market value with the stroke of a key.
Of course, flooding the market like this ends up killing the goose thay laid the golden eggs and is a common signal of market tops. Existing stock holdings have to be sold to buy new ones, taking markets south.
We have already seen the 30-day and 50-day moving averages broken, and sights are clearing set on the 200-day. They would take us to a full top to bottom correction in the indexes of 20%. That would take the S&P 500 from $3,600 to $3,000, The Dow Average from $26,298 to $24,000, and Apple from $137 to $84.
If the Volatility Index (VIX) goes over $50, I’ll start sending out lists of very low risk, high return two-year options LEAPS like I did last time.
The Fed says no interest rate hike until 2023 and promises to heat up the economy even more than previously. The long-term average 2% inflation target I reaffirmed. Jay sees a net shrinkage of the US GDP this year ay 3.7%. Since governor Jay Powell promised to run the economy hot weeks ago, ten-year US treasury bonds have only eked out a paltry rise to 72 basis points.
The market isn’t buying it. It’s tough to beat ever hyper-accelerating technology that crushes prices. Still, I’ll keep selling short bond rallies because it’s just a matter of time before the government crushes the market with massive over-issuance. Sell every rally in the (TLT). The Fed put lives! Buy stocks on dips.
Election chaos is starting to price in, with the US dollar (UUP) getting an undeserved bid in a flight to safety trade and stock down 1,000 points from the week’s high. All sorts of Armageddon scenarios are making the rounds now and traders are pulling out of the market to protect hard-earned profits. For details watch the final season of House of Cards, where martial law is declared in Ohio to reverse an election outcome. No kidding!
Citigroup announced a surprise $900 million loss. I can’t wait for the excuse for this surprise, out-of-the-blue “operational error.' It’s most likely an expensive hack. It’s the kind of black swan that can hit you any time if you are a short-term trader. Long term investors should be buying the dip in (C).
China’s Retail Sales rise for the first time in 2020, up 0.5% in August. First into the pandemic, first out. Keeping Corona deaths to 4,000 was also a big help. It’s proof that economies CAN recover post-COVID-19. Buy China on dips (BABA), (BIDU). Stocks there will enjoy a huge post-election rally once the trade war winds down.
US Consumer Sentiment hits six-month high, up from a 75 estimate to 78.9. The University of Michigan report is proof that those who have money are spending it. Another green shoot. Didn’t help stocks today though.
Oil collapsed 15% on the dimming outlook for the global economy. Not even massive well shutdowns caused by this week’s hurricane could boost prices. Avoid all energy plays like the plague.
Morgan Stanley says the trading boom won’t last forever, says my former employer coming off of a record quarter. Too much of a good thing won’t last forever. Make hay while the sun shines.
The value rotation is on, with large scale selling of technology stocks and the chasing of banks and other recovery plays. It’s been a long time coming and could well persist until the end of the year. The option expiration at the close on Friday was exacerbating all moves, which is why I dumped my last two tech positions days prior. It’s too early to buy tech again on dips. Wait for a pre-election meltdown.
Copper hit a new four-year high as traders bet on an accelerating recovery in the global economy. My favorite, Freeport McMoRan, the world’s largest copper producer and a long time Mad Hedge subscriber is soaring, up 257% from the market lows. China, which is done with the Coronavirus and whose economy is recovering rapidly, has returned as a major buyer of the red metal. Keep buying (FCX) on dips.
When we come out the other side of this, we will be perfectly poised to launch into my new American Golden Age, or the next Roaring Twenties. With interest rates still at zero, oil cheap, there will be no reason not to. The Dow Average will rise by 400% or more in the coming decade. The American coming out the other side of the pandemic will be far more efficient and profitable than the old.
My Global Trading Dispatch clocked its third blockbuster week in a row. I cashed in on my winnings with longs in (JPM), (TLT), (V), (GLD), (AAPL), and (AMZN), rang the cash register with shorts in (TLT) and (SPY), and booked a small loss in a long in (C). This took my cash position from 0% to 80% and I am looking to go to 100% in the coming week. The risk/reward in the market now is terrible.
Notice that I am shifting my longs away from tech and toward domestic recovery plays.
That takes our 2020 year-to-date back up to a blistering 35.74%, versus -2.93% for the Dow Average. September stands at a nosebleed 9.19%. That takes my eleven-year average annualized performance back to 36.43%. My 11-year total return is back for another new all-time high at 392.12%. My trailing one-year return popped back up to 54.87%.
The coming week is a big one for housing data. The only numbers that really count for the market are the number of US Coronavirus cases and deaths, which you can find here.
On Monday, September 21 at 8:30 AM EST, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index is out.
On Tuesday, September 22 at 10:00 AM EST, Existing Home Sales for July are released.
On Wednesday, September 23 at 9:00 AM EST, the US Home Price Index for July is printed. At 10:30 AM EST, the EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks are out.
change.
On Thursday, September 24 at 8:30 AM EST, the Weekly Jobless Claims are announced. At 10:00 AM the all-important Existing Home Sales for July are published.
On Friday, September 25, at 8:30 AM EST, US Durable Goods Sales for August are disclosed. At 2:00 PM The Bakers Hughes Rig Count is released.
As for me, I’ll climb up on the roof this weekend and clean the ash from my 59 solar panels. The fallout from the nearby raging forest fires has been so extreme that it has cut my solar output by 25%.
It’s not just me. Over a million homes in California have the same problem, putting a serious dent in the state’s electricity production.
Stay healthy.
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
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If you do not want that we track your visist to our site you can disable tracking in your browser here:
Other external services
We also use different external services like Google Webfonts, Google Maps, and external Video providers. Since these providers may collect personal data like your IP address we allow you to block them here. Please be aware that this might heavily reduce the functionality and appearance of our site. Changes will take effect once you reload the page.
