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Tag Archive for: (AAPL)

Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Warren Buffett’s Biopharmaceutical Bets

Biotech Letter

Aside from the recent big moves involving Verizon Communications (VZ), Chevron (CVX), and Apple (AAPL), Warren Buffett has also been busy with biopharmaceutical stocks.

Just before 2020 ended, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) made notable changes in its positions particularly in Merck (MRK), AbbVie (ABBV), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), and Pfizer (PFE).

Berkshire boosted its investment in Merck by 28.1% to reach 28.7 million shares.

Meanwhile, its AbbVie holdings were increased by 20% to hit 25.5 million shares.

It also added 11.2% in its investments in Bristol, totaling to 33.3 million shares.

In contrast, the company cut 3.7 million shares from its Pfizer holdings.

In terms of growth potential, these biopharmaceutical companies hold the most promising prospects in the next decade. 

Merck, hailed as a vaccine stalwart, is behind the blockbuster cancer treatment Keytruda.

For context, Keytruda generated $14.4 billion in sales in 2020 alone.

Despite fears over the expiring patent exclusivity of this drug, the company still trades at roughly 11.5 times earnings and is actually projected to achieve 11% long-term EPS growth rate.

Merck also continues to leverage Keytruda in the development of the next generation of treatments in its pipeline.

In fact, the company recently sealed a clinical collaboration with Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR) to assess the effectiveness of Keytruda when combined with Nektar’s own bempegaldesleukin in the treatment of squamous cell carcinoma.

Other than expanding its oncology sector, Merck has been developing its animal health business as well. So far, this particular segment has grown by 7% year over year, reaching $4.7 billion in 2020.

If things work out, then Merck could emerge as a huge competitor against Pfizer’s own animal healthcare spinoff, Zoetis (ZTS), in the future.

To date, Merck has at least 31 candidates in Phase 2 trials and 25 more undergoing Phase 3 studies.

Needless to say, these will be valuable in enriching the company’s lineup especially with the challenges that Keytruda will face in the next years.

As for AbbVie, this company trades at approximately 8.3 times the earnings estimated in the next 12 months. This is well below its five-year average of 10.4 times earnings.

However, the company is projected to show at least 13% EPS growth rate in the long term.

Despite the challenges of 2020, with the company going down 2.6%, the long-term prospects for AbbVie remain positive.

Although AbbVie broke through the dermatology market following its acquisition of Botox-maker Allergan in the past year, it still has to contend with a major problem: arthritis medication Humira.

Humira is not only AbbVie’s top-selling treatment but also the best selling drug in the world today.

In 2020 alone, this anti-inflammatory treatment raked in $19.8 billion in sales. However, AbbVie might soon lose this edge since its exclusive rights to Humira in the US will expire in 2023.

Amidst the anxiety over this issue though, AbbVie continues to defy expectations.

Last year, the company reported a 65.9% growth in its net revenue despite the overall slowdown caused by the pandemic.

As for 2021, AbbVie is anticipating an even better year thanks to its portfolio diversification efforts.

To date, the company’s lineup now spans neuroscience, immunology, eye care, women’s health, and of course, aesthetics.

Meanwhile, Bristol Myers has been pegged to achieve roughly 8% growth rate in the long term. Right now, the stock trade at 7.9 times earnings estimated over the next 12 months.

Like AbbVie and Merck, Bristol has been dealing with patent expiration issues—a problem that pushed its stock down by 4.1% so far this year.

One of the major updates involving Bristol is its massive $74 billion acquisition of Celgene in 2019.

While the deal raised a lot of eyebrows at the time, it brought cancer blockbuster Revlimid into the company’s fold.

Revlimid, which still enjoys protection from a flood of generics for a few more years, has been pumping up sales for Celgene nonstop for over a decade. The drug is expected to generate the same, if not higher, profits for Bristol.

Two more blockbuster drugs in Bristol’s lineup are facing impending patent exclusivity issues, Opdivo, which would expire in 2028, and Eliquis in 2026.

Nonetheless, the positives outweigh the negatives for Bristol. After all, this company invested so much in diversification.

Sales of Opdivo, Revlimid, and Eliquis continued to trend upwards last year.

Opdivo alone managed to generate $7 billion in annual revenue, prompting Bristol to expand the indications for this product.

However, the more promising news lies in the updates that the recently launched products, like multiple sclerosis drug Zeposia and anemia treatment Reblozyl, are gaining traction in the market.

Thanks to the development of its pipeline, the company expects that its new product lineup would account for roughly 27% of its total revenues by 2025.

Overall, Berkshire’s choice of biopharmaceutical companies are offering promising growths in the next several years despite the setbacks they are facing today.

While some investors get alarmed over negative updates, it looks like the Oracle of Omaha is following his own advice: “Whether we're talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise, when it is marked down.”

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-02-18 13:00:002021-02-19 14:51:57Warren Buffett’s Biopharmaceutical Bets
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 17, 2021

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
February 17, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(HOW TO HANDLE THE FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 19 OPTIONS EXPIRATION),
(TSLA), (MS), (BA), (BLK), (GS), (AMD), (KO), (BAC), (NFLX), (AMZN), (AAPL), (INTU), (QCOM), (CRWD), (AZN), (GILD)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-02-17 10:04:252021-02-17 10:14:12February 17, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

How to Handle the Friday, February 19 Options Expiration

Diary, Newsletter

Followers of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader Alert Services have the good fortune to own no less than 16 deep in-the-money options positions, all of which are profitable.  All but one of these expire in two trading days on Friday, February 19, and I just want to explain to the newbies how to best maximize their profits.

It was time to be aggressive. I was aggressive beyond the pale.

These involve the:

Global Trading Dispatch

  • (TSLA) 2/$650-$700 call spread 20.00%
  • (TSLA) 3/$600-$650 call spread
  • (MS) 2/$55-$60 call spread 10.00%
  • (BA) 2/$150-$160 call spread 10.00%
  • (BLK) 2/$640-$660 call spread 10.00%
  • (GS) 2/$240-$260 call spread 10.00%
  • (AMD) 2/$75-$80 call spread 10.00%
  • (BAC) 2/$28-$30 call spread 10.00%
  • (KO) 2/$44-$47 call spread 10.00%

Mad Hedge Technology Letter

  • NFLX 2/ $510- $515 call spread 10.00%
  • AMZN 2/ $3,095- $3,100 call spread 10.00%
  • AAPL 2/ $126-$129 call spread 10.00%
  • INTU 2/ $340-$345 call spread 10.00%
  • QCOM 2/ $135-$140 call spread 10.00%

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter

  • (AZN) 2/$46.50-$49.50 call spread 10.00%
  • GILD 2/ $57-$60 call spread 10.00%

Provided that we don’t have a huge selloff in the markets or monster rallies in bonds, all 15 of these positions will expire at their maximum profit point.

So far, so good.

I’ll do the math for you on our oldest and least liquid position, the Tesla February 19 $650-$700 vertical bull call spread, which I initiated on January 25, 2021 and will definitely run into expiration. At the Friday high, Tesla shares were at a lowly $816, some $53 lower than the $869.70 that prevailed when I strapped on this trade.

Provided that Tesla doesn’t trade below $700 in two days, we will capture the maximum potential profit in the trade. That’s why I love call spreads. They pay you even when you are wrong on the direction of the stock. All of the money we made was due to time decay and the decline in volatility in Tesla stock.

Your profit can be calculated as follows:

Profit: $50.00 expiration value - $44.00 cost = $6.00 net profit

(4 contracts X 100 contracts per option X $6.00 profit per options)

= $2,400 or 20% in 18 trading days.

Many of you have already emailed me asking what to do with these winning positions.

The answer is very simple. You take your left hand, grab your right wrist, pull it behind your neck, and pat yourself on the back for a job well done.

You don’t have to do anything.

Your broker (are they still called that?) will automatically use your long position to cover your short position, canceling out the total holdings.

The entire profit will be credited to your account on Monday morning February 22 and the margin freed up.

Some firms charge you a modest $10 or $15 fee for performing this service.

If you don’t see the cash show up in your account on Monday, get on the blower immediately and find it.

Although the expiration process is now supposed to be fully automated, occasionally machines do make mistakes. Better to sort out any confusion before losses ensue.

If you want to wimp out and close the position before the expiration, it may be expensive to do so. You can probably unload them pennies below their maximum expiration value.

Keep in mind that the liquidity in the options market understandably disappears, and the spreads substantially widen, when security has only hours, or minutes until expiration on Friday, February 19. So, if you plan to exit, do so well before the final expiration at the Friday market close.

This is known in the trade as the “expiration risk.”

If for some reason, your short position in your spread gets “called away,” don’t worry. Just call your broker and instruct them to exercise your long option position to cover your short option position. That gets you out of your position a few days early at your maximum profit point.

If your broker tells you to sell your remaining long and cover your short separately in the market, don’t. That makes money for your broker, but not you. Do what I say, and then fire your broker and close your account because they are giving you terrible advice. I’ve seen this happen many times among my followers.

One way or the other, I’m sure you’ll do OK, as long as I am looking over your shoulder, as I will be, always. Think of me as your trading guardian angel.

I am going to hang back and wait for good entry points before jumping back in. It’s all about keeping that “Buy low, sell high” thing going.

I’m looking to cherry-pick my new positions going into the next month-end.

Take your winnings and go out and buy yourself a well-earned dinner. Just make sure it’s take-out. I want you to stick around.

Well done, and on to the next trade.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/john-thomas-hiking.png 638 516 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-02-17 10:02:282021-02-17 10:14:36How to Handle the Friday, February 19 Options Expiration
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 12, 2021

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
February 12, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(TEN STOCKS TO BUY BEFORE YOU DIE)
 (MSFT), (AAPL), (GOOGL), (QCOM), (AMZN),
 (V), (AXP), (NVDA), (DIS), (TGT)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-02-12 10:04:482021-02-12 10:09:10February 12, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Ten Stocks to Buy Before You Die

Diary, Newsletter

A better headline for this piece might have been “Ten stocks to Buy at the Bottom”, except that you have to redefine the word “bottom.”

The rules of the greatest liquidity-driven market of all time demand a different explanation of The NEW bottom, and that is something that hasn’t gone up lately.

And that would be big tech, which appears ready to blast out to the upside from a six-month long sideways “time” correction.

It would be a perfectly rational thing to see in these highly irrational markets. After all, these names just announced blockbuster earnings presaging greater things to come. And these companies actually HAVE earnings, compared to recent market frontrunners, which have none at all.

Coming in here and betting the ranch is now a no-lose trade. If I’m right, the pandemic ends in three months, stocks will soar. If I’m wrong and the global epidemic explodes from here, you’ll be dead anyway and won’t care that the stock market crashed further.

Needless to say, I have a heavy tech orientation with this list, far and away the source of the bulk of earnings growth for the US economy for the foreseeable future. If anything, the coronavirus will accelerate the move away from shopping malls and towards online commerce as consumers seek to shy away from direct contact with the virus.

What would I be avoiding here? Directly corona-related stocks like those in airlines, hotels, casinos, and cruise lines. Avoid human contact at all cost! There is no way of knowing when or where these stocks will bottom. Only the virus knows for sure.

Microsoft (MSFT) – still has a near-monopoly on operating systems for personal computers and a huge cash balance. Their inroads with the Azure cloud services have been impressive.

Apple (AAPL) – Even with the Coronavirus, Apple still has a cash balance of $225 billion. Its 5G iPhone launches in the fall, unleashing enormous pent-up demand. Apple’s rapid move away from a dependence on hardware to services continues.

Alphabet (GOOGL) – Has a massive 92% market share in search and remains the dominant advertising company on the planet.

QUALCOMM (QCOM) – Has a near-monopoly in chips needed for 5G phones. It also won a lawsuit against Apple over proprietary chip design. In the very near future, you won’t be able to do ANYTHING without 5G. It’s also not a bad idea to own a chip stock during the worst global chip shortage in history.

Amazon (AMZN) – The world’s preeminent retailer is growing by leaps and bounds. Dragged down by its association with the world’s worst industry, (AMZN) is a bargain relative to other FANGs.

Visa (V) – The world’s largest credit company is a call on the growth of the internet. We still need credit cards to buy things. And guess what? Coronavirus will accelerate the move of commerce out of malls where you can get sick to online where you can’t.

American Express (AXP) – Ditto above, except it charges higher fees and has snob appeal (read higher margins). Its stock has lagged Visa and MasterCard in recent years.

NVIDIA (NVDA) – The leading graphics card maker that is essential for artificial intelligence, gaming, and bitcoin mining. Another great chip play that has flatlined for half a year.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) – Stands to benefit enormously from the chip shortage created by the coming 5G and the explosion of the cloud.

Target (TGT) – The one retailer that has figured it out, both in their stores and online. It can’t be ALL tech.

Good Luck and Good Trading
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader

 

Looks Like a “BUY” Signal to Me

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/buy-signal.png 484 864 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-02-12 10:02:012021-02-12 10:09:26Ten Stocks to Buy Before You Die
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 11, 2021

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
February 11, 2021
Fiat Lux

FEATURED TRADE:

(WHEN TECHNOLOGY MEETS HEALTHCARE)
(TDOC), (FB), (AAPL), (AMZN), (NFLX), (GOOGL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-02-11 11:02:252021-02-11 14:45:45February 11, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

When Technology Meets Healthcare

Biotech Letter

The decision to invest in FAANG stocks—Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), and Google (GOOGL)—is basically a no-brainer.

These are some of the most highly rated stocks to date, and these companies continue to grow in value.

In fact, they managed to soundly outperform the 16% returns of the S&P 500 in 2020, with the weakest stock in the list, Google’s Alphabet, climbing 31% while Apple rose by an impressive 81%.

Outside of FAANG, those who read my Mad Hedge Technology Letter know of the advantages of Software-as-as-a-Service (SaaS) and the growth of the companies behind it.

I’ve always been a fan of emerging innovations, and this is one of the reasons why I’m excited about the collaboration between technologies like SaaS to bolster age-old industries like the healthcare field.

It’s dubbed healthcare-as-a-service (HaaS).

So far, one promising stock comes to mind when it comes to HaaS: Teladoc Health (TDOC).

Teladoc is one of the companies that benefited massively from the COVID-19 lockdowns.

So far, this healthcare stock is up by over 40% year to date after skyrocketing 139% in 2020. 

During the first nine months of 2020, it recorded a whopping 163% rise on virtual visits compared to the same period in 2019. Meanwhile, its revenue rose by 79%.

The convenient technology it offers, which allows patients to connect with physicians without physically visiting the doctors’ offices, allowed Teladoc to enjoy strong growth amid the pandemic.

However, Teladoc isn’t merely a reasonable investment during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The company has been quietly gaining traction in the past years.

In its 2015 to 2019 reports, Teladoc reported an impressive growth in its revenues at 78%, 59%, 89%, 79%, and 32%, respectively.

The telehealth market is projected to grow to nearly $560 billion by 2027—an estimate that’s over 9 times the $61.4 billion the industry was worth in 2019. 

Needless to say, the growth in the telehealth industry is just beginning, and Teladoc is well-positioned to take advantage of the momentum.

In 2020, it has strengthened its position with its massive $18.5 billion merger with Livongo Health.

Given Livongo’s more specialized portfolio, which puts a premium on chronic care and diabetes, the newly combined companies can offer a more extensive scope of telehealth services.

By 2023, the combined Teladoc and Livongo is estimated to generate more than $3 billion in sales alone.

As for its 2021 plans, Teladoc welcomed the new year with a partnership with continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) systems manufacturer DexCom.

With this collaboration, the company would be able to offer its users “CGM-powered insights.”

In other words, patients would be able to conveniently see and monitor their own glucose levels.

While Teladoc clearly benefited from its partnerships with Livongo and DexCom, its core business continues to show strong growth.

In its third quarter earnings report, which was released days before its Livongo merger, it more than doubled its $138 million sales in 2019 to $288.8 million in 2020.

Meanwhile, the total number of its telehealth visits increased by a staggering 206% to reach 2.8 million.

With the addition of new services in its roster, Teladoc is presented with a considerable growth opportunity just by simply boosting the usage of its current clients.

To give you a better picture of how big this could get, the company recorded a total of 73 million members by the end of the third quarter last year.

Following the mergers and the new deal last January 2021, Teladoc is anticipating an additional 65 million clients. 

Teladoc is one of the most exciting healthcare stocks out there today. Its move to combine technology and doctor’s visits make it a uniquely innovative and stand-out business in an age-old industry.

More importantly, it has shown that its growth is not solely reliant on the demands brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic. Instead, it has made key moves to fortify its market share.

teladoc

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-02-11 11:00:562021-02-14 15:35:23When Technology Meets Healthcare
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 10, 2021

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
February 10, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(GET READY TO TAKE A LEAP BACK INTO LEAPS),
(AAPL), (BRK/B)
(TESTIMONIAL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-02-10 10:06:512021-02-10 12:32:37February 10, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Get Ready to Take a Leap Back into LEAPS

Diary, Newsletter

Just as every cloud has a silver lining, every stock market crash offers generational opportunities.

In a month or two, there will be spectacular trades to be had with LEAPS. What are LEAPS, you may ask?

This is the best strategy with which to cash in on the gigantic market swoons, which have become a regular feature of our markets.

Since the advent of the recent incredible market volatility, I have been asked one question.

What do you think about LEAPS?

LEAPS, or Long Term Equity Anticipation Securities, are just a fancy name for a stock option spread with a maturity of more than one year.

You execute orders for these securities on your options online trading platform, pay options commissions, and endure option like volatility.

Another way of describing LEAPS is that they offer a way to rent stocks instead of buying them, with the prospect of enjoying years’ worth of stock gains for a fraction of the price.

While these are highly leveraged instruments, you can’t lose any more money than you put into them. Your risk is well defined.

And there are many companies in the market where LEAPs are a very good idea, especially on those gut-wrenching 1,000 point down days.

Interested?

Currently, LEAPS are listed all the way out until August 2023.

However, the further expiration dates will have far less liquidity than near month options, so they are not a great short-term trading vehicle. That is why limit orders in LEAPS, as opposed to market orders, are crucial.

These are really for your buy-and-forget investment portfolio, defined benefit plan, 401k, or IRA.

Because of the long maturities, premiums can be enormous. However, there is more than one way to skin a cat, and the profit opportunities here can be astronomical.

Like all options contracts, a LEAP gives its owner the right to "exercise" the option to buy or sell 100 shares of stock at a set price for a given time.

LEAPS have been around since 1990, and trade on the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE).

To participate, you need an options account with a brokerage house, an easy process that mainly involves acknowledging the risk disclosures that no one ever reads.

If a LEAP expires "out-of-the-money" – when exercising, you can lose all the money that was spent on the premium to buy it. There's no toughing it out waiting for a recovery, as with actual shares of stock. Poof and your money is gone.

LEAPS are also offered on exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that track indices like the Standard & Poor's 500 index (SPY) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU), so you could bet on up or down moves of the broad market.

Not all stocks have options, and not all stocks with ordinary options also offer LEAPS.

Note that a LEAPS owner does not vote proxies or receive dividends because the underlying stock is owned by the seller, or "writer," of the LEAP contract until the LEAP owner exercises.

Despite the Wild West image of options, LEAPS are actually ideal for the right type of conservative investor.

They offer more margin and more efficient use of capital than traditional broker margin accounts. And you don’t have to pay the usurious interest rates that margin accounts usually charge.

And for a moderate increase in risk, they present outsized profit opportunities.

For the right investor, they are the ideal instrument.

Let me go through some examples to show you their inner beauty.

By now, you should all know what vertical bull call spreads are. If you don’t, then please click here for a quickie video tutorial (you must be logged in to your account).

Let’s go back to February 9, 2018 when the Dow Average plunged to its 23,800 low for the year. I then begged you to buy the Apple (AAPL) June 2018 $130-$140 call spread at $8.10, which most of you did. A month later, that position is worth $9.40, up some 16.04%. Not bad.

Now let’s say that instead of buying a spread four months out, you went for the full year and three months, to June 2019.

That identical (AAPL) $130-$140 would have cost $5.50 on February 9. The spread would be worth $9.40 today, up 70.90%, and worth $10 on June 21, 2019, up 81.81%.

So, by holding a 15 month to expiration position for only a month, you get to collect 86.67% of the maximum potential profit of the position.

So, now you know why we leap into LEAPS.

When the meltdown comes, and that could be as soon as today, use this strategy to jump into longer term positions in the names we have been recommending and you should be able to retire early.

What’s out there today?

 Take a look at Berkshire Hathaway “B” shares (BRK/B), one of the best plays on boring old high cash flow domestic cyclical stocks. It has a very heavy weighting in banks and has a 10% holding in Apple (AAPL) as a kicker.

Today, (BRK/B) shares were trading at $240. Let say that Berkshire shares recover to $290 by January 20, 2023. You can buy a January 2023 $280-$290 vertical bull call spread for $2.00.  If Berkshire makes it to $290 by the January 20, 2023 options expiration, the LEAP will expire worth $10, an increase of 400%.

Another way of looking at this is a mere 20.8% move up in the stock in two years delivers a return of 400%, and you can't lose any more money than you put up. That implies a leverage in the position of 19.2X once the shares rise above $280.

Caution:
If the shares only make it to $280 the position becomes worthless.

Now you know why I like LEAPS so much. Please play around with the names and the numbers and I’m sure you will find something you like. But remember one thing. LEAPS are only a trade to consider at long time market bottoms, not tops!

They are also the perfect positions to own if you believe we have just entered a second Roaring Twenties and a second American Golden Age, as I do.

 

 

 

Time to Leap Into LEAPS

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-02-10 10:04:052021-02-10 12:33:06Get Ready to Take a Leap Back into LEAPS
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 5, 2021

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
February 5, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(FEBRUARY 3 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(MRNA), (PFE), (JNJ), (AMZN), (SLV), (GME), (GLD), (CLDR), (SNOW), (NVDA), (X), (FCX),
(AAPL), (TSLA), (FEYE), (PANW), (SWI), (WYNN), (MGM), (LVS)

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