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Tag Archive for: (AAPL)

april@madhedgefundtrader.com

December 31, 2024

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
December 31, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

mostbet mostbet giriş mostbet mostbet giriş mostbet mostbet giriş

Featured Trade:

(SOMETIMES WALL STREET GETS IT WRONG)

(BMY), (AAPL), (MRK)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-12-31 12:02:452024-12-31 11:47:45December 31, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Sometimes Wall Street Gets It Wrong

Biotech Letter

Sitting in my stateroom aboard the Coral Princess, about 200 miles off Mexico's west coast, I found myself chuckling at the market's reaction to Bristol-Myers Squibb’s (BMY) latest developments. Sometimes Wall Street reminds me of my old physics professor - brilliant but occasionally missing the forest for the quantum trees.

Here's what caught my attention: BMY's stock has outperformed the broader market by +15% since July, yet still trades at a measly 7.91x forward P/E while its sector peers strut around at 20.53x. It's like finding a Ferrari in a used car lot, priced like a Corolla.

The cynics, of course, point to the patent cliff. "What about Eliquis in 2026? Opdivo in 2028?" they ask, wringing their hands. But that's exactly where it gets interesting.

Just earlier this month, BMY announced FDA approval for Opdivo Qvantig - their new subcutaneous version that cuts treatment time from 30 minutes to 5 minutes. If you've ever spent time in cancer treatment centers like I have, you know those 25 minutes make a world of difference.

BMY's commercial team expects this version to capture 75% of Opdivo's business, with 30-40% of patients switching from IV. That's not just convenience - it's strategic patent life extension.

Speaking of strategy, let's talk about their growth portfolio, which has quietly expanded 20% year-over-year and now represents 48.7% of their business.

Remember when Apple (AAPL) transformed from computers to mobile devices? BMY is pulling a similar pivot, just without the flashy keynotes.

Take their $14 billion Karuna acquisition. Their newly approved schizophrenia treatment, Cobenfy, targets a market projected to hit $15.23 billion by 2034. The timing here is masterful - monetization starts in early 2025, well before the patent cliffs hit.

Meanwhile, they're cleaning up their balance sheet faster than a neat freak with a new vacuum. They've already slashed $4.31 billion in debt this year, with plans to cut $10 billion by 2026.

Their free cash flow has grown to $13.8B, up 18.1% sequentially. At this rate, they'll have plenty of dry powder for more strategic moves.

But here's what really makes me scratch my head: while everyone's fixated on the patent cliff, BMY has quietly added 8 new oncology registrational trials in the past year. Their oncology trio - Opdivo, Yervoy, and Opdualag - is growing at 7.6% year-over-year.

Sure, Merck's (MRK) Keytruda is the 800-pound gorilla with $25 billion in sales, but BMY's playing a different game - diversification with shots on goal across multiple therapeutic areas.

Now, I'm not suggesting you back up the truck tomorrow morning. The stock might see some pressure after the January 3, 2025 ex-dividend date, possibly testing support at $51 or even $48. But with a 4.45% dividend yield and a valuation at half its historical average, patient investors might find this an interesting entry point.

Speaking of timing - Wall Street's greatest fortunes were made by investors who saw value where others saw problems. Right now, most analysts are staring at BMY's patent cliff like deer in headlights.

Meanwhile, I'm seeing a company with a 4.45% dividend yield, a growth portfolio expanding at 20% annually, and a valuation that's practically begging to double.

As I wrap this up from somewhere off the Mexican coast (where I'm supposedly on vacation but can't help analyzing stocks between rounds of Monopoly), I'm reminded of something I learned in my decades of trading: The crowd is usually looking through the wrong end of the telescope.

While they're zoomed in on 2026's patent expirations, they're missing the transformation happening right now in front of their eyes.

Maybe that's why I've averaged +50% returns for over a decade - I tend to look where others don't. BMY just might be one of those opportunities that makes next year's Christmas gift to my subscribers an even bigger winner than this year's +75.25% return.

Now, if you'll excuse me, my banjo needs tuning, and I have a Monopoly empire to build. But remember - in both board games and markets, the best players are always thinking three moves ahead. BMY's management certainly is.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-12-31 12:00:342024-12-31 11:47:09Sometimes Wall Street Gets It Wrong
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

December 26, 2024

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
December 26, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

SPECIAL ISSUE ABOUT THE FAR FUTURE

Featured Trade:
(PEAKING INTO THE FUTURE WITH RAY KURZWEIL),
(GOOG), (INTC), (AAPL), (TXN)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-12-26 09:04:192024-12-26 10:02:24December 26, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

December 23, 2024

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
December 23, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(A BUY WRITE PRIMER)

(AAPL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-12-23 09:04:282024-12-23 11:34:05December 23, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

December 13, 2024

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
December 13, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(THE AI TRAIN KEEPS CHUGGING)
(DELL), (AAPL), (NVDA)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-12-13 14:04:552024-12-13 15:31:41December 13, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

The AI Train Keeps Chugging

Tech Letter

If anyone needs another AI data point, the tech market just delivered us a juicy one with an outstanding earnings call with Broadcom (AVGO) and its CEO Hock Tan.

The AI enterprise build-out has been developing in full-force and investors are pouring money into the foundation of the AI future.

That is currently where the AI profits currently lie.

The software companies have missed out on that profit in the short-term, but since many are also involved in the AI infrastructure spend, they can turn to their investors and ask for a mark-up in owned shares.

This won’t always be the case, and I do believe we are fast reaching an inflection point where shareholders will demand more from their capital and not just more AI data centers and more modern AI semiconductor chips.

I am talking about meaningful revenue growth directly tied to AI spend – we don’t have that yet. 

At some point, there needs to be an application from all of this money spent and return on capital.

In the meantime, Mr. Market is cheering the success of AVGO and the stock is up 25% today at the time of this writing signaling investors will continue to back this AI infrastructure spend into 2025 and possibly beyond.

Broadcom CEO Hock Tan said the company expects its custom AI chips will generate between $60 billion and $90 billion in revenue over the next three years from its three existing hyperscaler customers, whom the company did not name. Tan reiterated his belief that each of the three hyperscalers will deploy 1 million clusters of its custom AI chips called XPUs by 2025.

Apple is reportedly working with Broadcom to develop an AI server chip. The move by tech giants to make their own server chips is meant to cut costs and scale back their reliance on Nvidia’s (NVDA) GPUs (graphics processing units).

That trend is reflected in the industry at large. The AI chip market is set to grow 74% in 2025, while the semiconductor market overall is projected to grow just 12% next year.

We are seeing this type of binary divergence in tech firms like Dell and Oracle.

Many of these legacy tech companies are attempting to wean themselves from a legacy business that is expanding in the low single digits.

From a technical perspective, any dip to the $200 level will be a strong buy for AVGO.

I believe they continue to pivot into the AI infrastructure build while partnering with companies that can aid this type of success.

They will continue to invest in products related to AI, mainly chips, which will be installed in a wide array of businesses like data centers, consumer electronics like smartphones and laptops, and electric vehicles.

AVGO has been a hot company for quite a while, and even though not quite an Nvidia, I do believe AVGO stock is a solid backup option for tech investors looking for some diversification.

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-12-13 14:02:062024-12-13 15:31:28The AI Train Keeps Chugging
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

December 11, 2024

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
December 11, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(OPTIMISTIC FUTURE FOR GOOGLE)
(GOOGL), (AAPL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-12-11 14:04:012024-12-12 11:25:41December 11, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Optimistic Future For Google

Tech Letter

It isn’t a surprise that the Department of Justice is going after Google (GOOGL) to divest its Chrome browser following a ruling in August that the company holds a monopoly in the search market.

I don’t believe this will tank the cash cow business of Google Search, and let’s not forget the most likely outcome is that Chrome is retained as a division of Google.

At worst, if it does get divested, the appeal process takes many years. 

Although I do believe it will become harder for Google Search to track and monitor user behavior without Google Chrome, this is by no means a deal breaker.

Plenty of traffic comes from completely different operating systems like Apple (AAPL) iOS that don’t employ the Chrome browser.

In fact, spinning out its browser would result in a massive windfall because the current setup hides the aggregate value and synergies within a larger corporation.

Once Google Chrome is spun out, animal spirits could take hold, and the value could skyrocket.

Google will naturally profit from this as well.

Chrome, which Google launched in 2008, provides the search giant with data it then uses for targeting ads. The DOJ said in a filing that forcing the company to get rid of Chrome would create a more equal playing field for search.

The DOJ said that Google will be prevented from entering into exclusionary agreements with third parties like Apple and Samsung. The department also said that Google be prohibited from giving its search service preference within its other products.

Search advertising accounted for $49.4 billion in revenue, representing three-quarters of total ad sales in the most recent period.

The DOJ’s request represents the agency’s most aggressive attempt to break up a tech company since its antitrust case against Microsoft, which reached a settlement in 2001.

In August, a federal judge ruled that Google holds a monopoly in the search market.

Also, the DOJ suggested limiting or prohibiting default agreements and “other revenue-sharing arrangements related to search and search-related products.”

The most likely outcome is that Google will be legally forced to do away with certain exclusive agreements, like its deal with Apple. I also don’t believe that Google will be forced to divest from the Android operating system, and the chances of that happening are almost zero.

Even without an exclusivity agreement, most Apple users use Google Chrome because it is still the most useful search engine.

Will that be the case in the future?

With AI changing business models left and right, it is hard to say, but in the interim, it is hard to believe that a lack of exclusivity agreement will cause any meaningful change to the bottom or top line in the next few years.

Breaking up parts of Google would result in a massive windfall for shareholders, strengthen the tech ecosystem, and make Google and its spinoff entities more competitive.

However, high-up executives are wary about voluntarily dumping revenue from the mothership because it hurts negotiating leverage when agreeing on future compensation, and that is what usually standalone corporate executives care about.

I believe spinning out some of these businesses, like Waymo, Google devices, Google Maps, and YouTube, would be great for America and give an opportunity for investors to jump into great tech companies before they skyrocket.

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-12-11 14:02:002024-12-12 11:25:25Optimistic Future For Google
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

November 27, 2024

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
November 27, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(BEST BUY THROWS UP SOME WARNING SIGNALS)
(BBY), (AAPL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-11-27 14:04:002024-11-27 16:09:34November 27, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Best Buy Throws Up Some Warning Signals

Tech Letter

Best Buy (BBY) tanking their earning results is indicative of where we are right now, not only as a society but also in the tech sector.

People just don’t have that extra dollar or 2 to fund that iPhone (AAPL) upgrade, and that is why Best Buy sales are so underwhelming.

It isn’t the end of the world, but we need the consumers to stay healthy for the short-term health of the tech sector.

Sure, it is true that a great deal of spend comes from enterprise sources, but that is not the entire economy.

The U.S. economy is held up by consumers, and that isn’t the case in many other economies like China or India.

Get ready for a lukewarm Christmas season, which should manifest itself in some pretty sweet deals for the individual.

At the aggregate level, it looks quite sluggish in the mid-term as electronic retailer Best Buy ponders about how to reverse the dimming outlook.

Best Buy cut its full-year sales forecast and missed revenue targets.

Best Buy expects full-year comparable sales to decline by between 2.5% and 3.5%, compared with its prior expectations of a 1.5% to 3% drop.

Granted, the holiday season is five days shorter than last, so some of the softness is a one-off.

Management did say shoppers are responding to big deals and sales events. Management said it expects the peak in sales during times like Black Friday and Cyber Monday to be higher but the valleys before and after those to be lower.

Best Buy is waiting for a wave of shoppers to replace old devices and upgrade to new, higher-tech ones after an approximately two-year sales slump in the consumer electronics category.

Management said they anticipate this year to be one that brings “increasing industry stabilization.” They also mentioned specifically about Apple’s fresh collection of iPads, as well as artificial intelligence-enabled laptops from Microsoft, will drive sales.

Tariffs could put Best Buy’s sales at risk, too, if they result in higher costs for the company and for customers. President-elect Donald Trump said he would raise tariffs by an additional 10% on all Chinese goods and impose tariffs of 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada.

Artificial intelligence products are nowhere near the shelves of Best Buy, and nobody knows when they will debut.

A.I. continues to be strictly an enterprise build-out with a future use case, which doesn’t help companies like Best Buy and their bottom line.

Apple and its micro-improvements don’t move the needle enough for shoppers to get off the sidelines and splurge.

This type of transitory environment for consumer tech isn’t what investors like to hear.

I also mentioned earlier about the inflation effect of households redirecting funds to essentials like housing, insurance, and food.

Therefore, it is better for investors to stay out of the tech consumables and target the enterprise side of the equation.

I don’t believe the enterprise part of tech needs a reboot of growth is waning, and I am still executing bullish trades in stocks that are exposed to the A.I. story.

However, the times of the “tide lifts all boats” all long gone in the rearview mirror.

Today, I executed another bullish trade in Dell (DELL) on a monster dip of 12%. Weak guidance is another manifestation of stalling tech growth. I will exit this position before the year is over.

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-11-27 14:02:012024-11-27 16:09:16Best Buy Throws Up Some Warning Signals
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