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Tag Archive for: (AMGN)

Mad Hedge Fund Trader

March 5, 2020

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
March 5, 2020
Fiat Lux

SPECIAL MARKET BOTTOM ISSUE

Featured Trade:

(FRIDAY, APRIL 17 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(A LEAP PORTFOLIO TO BUY AT THE BOTTOM),
(TEN LONG-TERM BIOTECH & HEALTHCARE LEAPS TO BUY AT THE BOTTOM)
(UNH), (HUM), (AMGN), (BIIB), (JNJ), (PFE), (BMY)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-03-05 06:06:242020-03-05 05:19:27March 5, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

March 5, 2020

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
March 5, 2020
Fiat Lux

SPECIAL MARKET BOTTOM ISSUE

Featured Trade:
(TEN LONG TERM BIOTECH & HEALTH CARE LEAPS TO BUY AT THE BOTTOM)
(UNH), (HUM), (AMGN), (BIIB), (JNJ), (PFE), (BMY)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-03-05 06:04:562020-03-05 05:33:12March 5, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Ten Long Term Biotech & Healthcare LEAPs to Buy at the Bottom

Biotech Letter, Diary, Newsletter

Joe Biden’s romp over Bernie Sanders in the Tuesday Democratic primary takes the lid off on the entire biotech and healthcare sector. Sanders has promised to dismantle the entire sector by promising Medicare for all and banning private coverage.

Sanders was also about to take a cudgel to drug pricing. While Sanders was leading in the primary, the threats hung over the industry like an 800-pound gorilla.

Yesterday, Sanders went down in flames. You can see this clearly in the price action of Humana (HUM), which rose a ballistic 14.44% yesterday. Similarly, United Health Group (UNH) was up a monster 10.72%.

It is safe to say that the bottom is in for biotech and healthcare stocks.

I am often asked how professional hedge fund traders invest their personal money. They all do the exact same thing. They wait for a market crash like we are seeing now and buy the longest-term LEAPs possible for their favorite names.

The reasons are very simple. The risk of a LEAP is limited. You can’t lose any more than you put in. At the same time, they permit enormous amounts of leverage.

Two years out, the longest maturity available for most LEAPs, allow plenty of time for the world and the markets to get back on an even keel. Recessions, pandemics, hurricanes, oil shocks, interest rate spikes, and political instability all go away within two years and pave the way for dramatic stock market recoveries.

You just put them away and forget about them. Wake me up when it is 2022.

I put together this portfolio using the following parameters. I set the strike prices just short of the all-time highs set two weeks ago. I went for the maximum maturity. I used today’s prices. And of course, I picked the names that have the best long-term outlooks.

If you buy LEAPs at these prices and the stocks all go to new highs, then you should earn an average 229% profit from an average stock price increase of only 11.4%. That is a return 20 times greater than the underlying stock gain. And let’s face it. None of the companies below are going to zero, ever. Now you know why hedge fund traders only employ this strategy.

There is a smarter way to execute this portfolio. Put in throw-away crash bids at levels so low they will only get executed on the next 1,000 point down day in the Dow Average.

You can play around with the strike prices all you want. Going farther out of the money increase your returns, but raises your risk as well. Going closer to the money reduces risk and returns, but the gains are still a multiple of the underlying stock.

Buying when everyone else is throwing up on their shoes is always the best policy. That way your return will rise to ten times the move in the underlying stock.

Amgen (AMGN) - January 21 2022 $235-$240 bull call spread at $3.68 delivers a 172% gain with the stock at $245, up 14% from the current level

Biogen (BIIB) - January 21 2022 $365-$375 bull call spread at $3.89 delivers a 157% gain with the stock at $375, up 14% from the current level

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) - January 21 2022 $150-$155 bull call spread at $1.63 delivers a 206% gain with the stock at $155, up 8.3% from the current level

Pfizer (PFE) - January 21 2022 $40-$45 bull call spread at $1.05 delivers a 376% gain with the stock at $40.60, up 11.5% from the current level

Bristol Meyers Squibb (BMY) - January 21 2022 $65-$70 bull call spread at $1.50 delivers a 233% gain with the stock at $68, up 11.40% from the current level

 

 

 

 

 

Is He Saying “BUY”?

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/biden.png 527 791 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-03-05 06:02:212020-03-10 15:15:57Ten Long Term Biotech & Healthcare LEAPs to Buy at the Bottom
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 13, 2020

Diary, Newsletter

Global Market Comments
February 13, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(I HAVE AN OPENING FOR THE MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER CONCIERGE SERVICE),
(MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER CELEBRATES ITS 12-YEAR ANNIVERSARY)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-02-13 04:06:162020-02-12 19:53:15February 13, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 12, 2020

Diary, Newsletter

Global Market Comments
February 10, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(LEARN MORE ABOUT ME THAN YOU PROBABLY WANT TO KNOW),
(GOOG), (AMZN), (AMGN)
(WHO SAYS THERE AREN’T ANY GOOD JOBS?),
(TESTIMONIAL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-02-12 04:08:552020-02-11 17:39:18February 12, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Learn More About Me Than You Probably Want to Know

Diary, Newsletter

As you may imagine, the most interesting man in the world is impossible to shop for when it comes to Christmas and birthdays.

So, it was no surprise when I opened a box and found a DNA testing kit from 23 and Me. So, I spit into a small test tube to humor the kids, mailed it off, and forgot about it.

I have long been a keeper of the Thomas family history and legends, so it would be interesting to learn which were true and which were myths.

A month later, what I discovered was amazing.

For a start, I am related to Louis the 16th, the last Bourbon king of France who was beheaded after the 1789 revolution.

I am a direct descendant from Otzi the Iceman who is 5,000 years old and was recently discovered frozen in an Alpine glacier. He currently resides in mummified form in an Italian museum.

Oh, one more. The reason I don’t have any hair on my back is that I carry 346 gene fragments that I inherited directly from a Neanderthal. Yes, I am part caveman, although past girlfriends suspected as much.

There were other conclusions.

I have a higher than average probability of getting prostate cancer, advanced macular degeneration (my mother had it), celiac disease, and melanoma.

The service also offered to introduce me to 1,107 close relatives around the world who I didn’t know, mostly in New York, California, and Florida.

The French connection I already knew about. During the 16th century, my ancestors rebelled against the French kings over the non-payment of taxes and were exiled to Louisiana. Fleeing a malaria epidemic, they moved up the Mississippi River to St. Louis and stayed there for 200 years. When gold was discovered in California in 1849, they joined a wagon train west. We have been here ever since.

I am half Italian and have birth certificates going back to 1800 to prove it. But 23 and Me says that I am only 40.7% Italian (see table below). It turns out that your genes show not only where you came from, but also who invaded your home country since the beginning of time.

In Italy’s case that would include the ancient Greeks, Vikings, Arabs, the Normans, French, Germans, and the Spanish, thus making up my other 9.3%. Your genes also reflect the slaves your ancestors owned, for obvious reasons, as well as many of the servants who may have worked for them.

It gets better.

All modern humans are decended from a single primordial “Eve” who lived in Eastern Africa 180,000 years ago. Of the thousands of homo sapiens who probably lived at that time, the genes of no other human made it into the modern age. We  are all decended from a single “Adam” who lived 275,000 years ago. Obviously, the two never met, debunking some modern conventions.

Around 53,000 years ago, my intrepid ancestors cross the Red Sea to a lush jungle in the Sinai Penninsula probably pursuing abundant game. 53,000 years ago, they moved on the vast grasslands of the Cental Asian Steppes. As the last Ice Age retreated, they moved into the warmer climes of South Europe. We have been there ever since.

23 and Me was founded in 2006 by Anne Wojcicki, wife of Google founder Sergei Brin. It is owned today by her and a few other partners. Its name is based on the fact that humans' entire DNA code is found on 23 chromosomes.

23 and Me and other competitors like Ancestry.com, MyHeritage, and Living DNA have sparked a DNA boom that has led to once unimaged economic and social consequences. DNA promises to be for the 21st century what electricity was to the 20th century. The investment consequences are amazing.

Talk about unintended consequences with a turbocharger.

A common ancestor going back to the early 1800s enabled Sacramento police to capture the Golden State killer. Unsolved for 40 years, it took a week for them to find him after a DNA sample was sent to a DNA database.

Thirty and 40-year cold cases are now being solved on a weekly basis. Long ago kidnapped children are being reunited with parents after decades of separation.

California just froze all executions. That’s because DNA evidence showed that approximately 30% of all capital case convictions were of innocent men. That was enough for me to change my own view on the death penalty. The error rate was just too high. Dozens of men around the country have been freed after new DNA evidence surfaced, some after serving 30 years or more in prison.

23 and Me had some medical advice for me as well. They strongly recommended that I get tested for diabetes and high blood pressure as these maladies are rife among my ancestors. They even name the specific guilty gene and haploid group.

This explains why major technology companies, like Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL), are pouring billions of dollars into genetic research.

I have long had a personal connection with DNA research. I worked on the team that sequenced the first ever string of DNA at UCLA in 1974. It was groundbreaking work. We obtained our raw DNA from Dr. James Watson of Harvard who, along with Francis Crick, was the first to discover its three-dimensional structure. As for my UCLA professor, Dr. Winston Salser, he went on to found Amgen (AMGN) in 1980 and became a billionaire.

The developments that are taking place today then seemed to us like science fiction that was hundreds of years into the future. To see the paper created by this work, please click here.
 
As research into DNA advances, it is about to pervade every aspect of our lives. Do you have a high probability of getting a disease that costs a million dollars to cure and is counting on getting health insurance? Think again. That may well bring forward single-payer national healthcare for the US, as only the government could absorb that kind of liability.

And if you can only hang on a few years, you might live forever. That’s when DNA-based monoclonal antibodies and gene editing are about to cure all major human diseases. DNA is about to become central to your physical health and your financial health as well.

To learn more about 23 and Me please visit their website here.

Maybe the next time I visit the Versaille Palace outside of Paris, I should ask for a set of keys now that I’m a relative? Unfortunately, it’s much more likely that I’ll get the keys to my Neanderthal ancestor’s cave.

 

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/23-and-me-3.png 358 283 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-02-12 04:06:272020-02-11 17:39:38Learn More About Me Than You Probably Want to Know
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 17, 2019

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
December 17, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(WHY THE M&A BOOM WILL SPILL INTO 2020),
(BMY), (CELG), (NOVN), (LOXO), (ROG), (ONCE), (MRK), (SAN), (ARQL), (THOR), (AMRN), (GSK), (AMGN), (GILD)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-12-17 04:02:342019-12-17 03:55:07December 17, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Why the M&A Boom Will Spill Into 2020

Biotech Letter

The biotech industry is breaking out, with the sector witnessing tremendous growth in the later part of 2019. With the stocks surging, it looks like the new year is setting up to a strong start that could continue well up into 2020.

Despite the anxiety over the feared government price controls in the drug sector, the early thinking in the biotech world remains optimistic. In fact, the stage seems to be set for even bigger news come 2020. This prediction comes on the heels of the over $7 billion deals closed just this summer alone.

To date, approximately $100 billion total potential value of research and development have been spent by biotech companies since June 2019, with $11 billion paid upfront in cash.

Among those deals, the biggest so far is Bristol-Myers Squibb’s (BMY) $74 billion acquisition of Celgene (CELG). Another massive agreement is Novartis AG’s (NOVN) $9.7 billion acquisition of The Medicines Company (MDCO).

Eli Lilly and Co’s (LLY) $8 billion takeover of rare genetic mutation drug Vitakvi creator, Loxo Oncology (LOXO), also signified notable movements in the industry along with Johnson and Johnson’s (JNJ) $5.8 billion buyout of robotic surgery company Auris Health. Even Roche Holding AG (ROG) is expected to complete its $4.3 billion merger with gene therapy company Spark Therapeutics (ONCE) before the year ends.

Not far behind are Merck and Co’s (MRK) $2.7 billion acquisition of ArQule (ARQL) as well as Sanofi SA’s (SAN) $2.5 billion buyout of clinical-stage DNA base pair treatment company Synthorx Inc (THOR).

The majority of the deals were in the oncology space, with three times as many oncology deals made compared to the number two sector, the neurology sector. To put things in perspective, seven of the top 10 deals made in 2019 involved oncology treatments.

What can we expect in 2020?

A number of drug candidates remain in the pipeline, but one mid-cap biotech company is anticipated to make big bucks next year. The catch? It’ll need the help of a bigger and more established company to make it happen. That is, this promising company has become the most eligible buyout candidate for 2020.

Amarin Corporation (AMRN) has taken center stage when it became the first-ever company to hit positive results for its prescription omega-3 treatment, Vascepa -- a feat that none of the other biotech giants managed to accomplish. Actually, competitor GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) created its own omega-3 treatment, Lovaza, only to have it fail to reach its goal.

Barring any major setback, Vascepa is slated as the next blockbuster treatment in the cardiovascular disease space -- possibly even displacing Pfizer’s (PFE) Lipitor as the king of this segment. In fact, several major healthcare groups like the American Heart Association, American Diabetes Association, the European Society of Cardiology have already endorsed Vascepa as an effective treatment for LDL cholesterol.

The Amarin medication is projected to peak at $4 billion in annual revenues by 2028. Considering that its manufacturer’s reported third-quarter earnings this 2019 is only at $112.4 million, the approval of Vascepa will undoubtedly be a game-changer for its investors.

However, Vascepa’s incredible potential along with the fact that Amarin has no other drug candidate in its pipeline makes the company ripe for a takeover. For one, it’s not financially capable of juggling both the marketing of Vascepa and developing or building a solid pipeline to support its growth. With the omega-3 treatment’s projected blockbuster status, a bigger and more established company could undoubtedly be more fit to help it reach its potential.

Who are the potential suitors?

Three heavyweights have been repeatedly linked to Amarin: Pfizer, Novartis, and Amgen (AMGN). Since all three have a budding cardiovascular unit, it could be anyone’s game.

However, Novartis’ recent acquisition of The Medicines Company makes it the least likely candidate in the list right now. After all, the latter already has a potential blockbuster cholesterol-lowering drug in Inclisiran.

That paves the way for a new suitor in the form of Gilead Sciences (GILD). Just a few weeks ago, Gilead added Vascepa to one of its ongoing trials involving nonalcoholic steatohepatitis. Whether or not this signifies interest in buying out Amarin is anybody’s guess.

Heading into the next year, the biotech sector is expected to welcome the new year with strong fundamentals and great opportunities for outperformance. While the election may bring changes to policies, the ongoing growth and innovation in this industry make it impossible to be excited for what’s in store for the future.

After all, more and more life-extending and even life-saving treatments are getting discovered by the day. Aside from following the developments in the industry, why not use your knowledge to fatten your pocketbook along the way?

 

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-12-17 04:00:382019-12-17 03:56:24Why the M&A Boom Will Spill Into 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 12, 2019

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
December 12, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE STAMPEDE INTO BIOSIMILAR DRUGS),
(BIIB), (NOVN), (REGN), (ALXN), (NITE), (PFE), (AMGN), (MRK)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-12-12 04:02:532019-12-11 15:52:53December 12, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Stampede Into Biosimilar Drugs

Biotech Letter

It’s been roughly a year since Biogen (BIIB) tightened its partnership with Samsung Bioepis and the Massachusetts-based biotech giant handed over an additional $100 million to funnel new programs to its own growing biosimilars pipeline.

On top of the upfront payment, the South Korean company is also eligible to gain up to $210 million depending on milestones achieved plus a $60 million fee if Biogen chooses to exercise its option in Europe. This comes in the heels of the $700 million it paid Bioepis in 2018 in an effort to boost its stake to 49.9% in their joint venture in the biosimilar space.

How has that gone?

In return, Biogen brought home two new ophthalmology biosimilars. One is a knockoff of Novartis AG’s (NOVN) prized Lucentis and the other is Regeneron Pharmaceuticals’ (REGN) top-selling Eylea. The terms of the recent deal give Biogen the exclusive commercialization rights worldwide.

Here’s a quick summary of the differences between biosimilars and generics.

Generics are identical versions of brand name products that lose patent protection. Biosimilars are considered as brand name products. However, these are highly similar to those existing branded drugs available in the market. The competitive edge of biosimilars against the “original” brand name products is the fact that they can deliver equivalent results at cheaper alternatives.

This latest update on Biogen’s partnership with Bioepis is dubbed as the “second wave” of biosimilar candidates joining the Biogen lineup. Aside from the Lucentis and Eylea biosimilars, Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN) red blood cell treatment Soliris is also expected to join this batch.

Apart from that, the company can also commercialize a number of anti-tumor necrosis factor drugs in China with the list including plaque psoriasis drug Imraldi, rheumatoid arthritis treatment Benepali, and Crohn's disease medication Flicabi. Both companies have left their options open to potentially expand their current agreement in Europe for an additional five years.

Biogen’s first aggressive foray in the eye diseases sector was signified by its acquisition of clinical-stage gene therapy company Nightstar Therapeutics (NITE) earlier this year. At the time, the smaller company has already attracted attention for their research on rare retinal disorders.

Despite the promising announcements though, some investors remain wary of this growth direction Biogen has decided to pursue.

A commonly voiced concern is the issue of the production timeline, especially since neither biosimilar drug from the new deal has actually completed clinical trials to prove their efficacy compared to the reference drugs. At this point, the Lucentis biosimilar is in Phase 3 testing while the Eylea copycat is still in the preclinical phase. Patent issues are notable roadblocks as well.

Regardless of the issues, Biogen appears to be set on this track. Even before the “second wave” was implemented, the company has already presented a convincing lineup of biosimilars. A look at its third quarter earnings report showed that the biosimilars lineup managed to generate almost $184 million during that period alone, with copycat versions of Enbrel, Remicade, and Humira taking the lead in sales. 

The biosimilars movement remains strong among biotech and pharmaceutical companies. Unlike in the generic drug sector, the leaders of the biosimilar movement are also the big names in the “branded” products market.

In fact, biotech heavyweights eagerly jumped at the opportunity to become frontrunners in the move to cut down on the staggering costs of branded medicine. Novartis has quickly developed its biosimilars arm, with Sandoz AG quickly taking over the European market.

Pfizer’s (PFE) partnership with South Korean biosimilar developer Celltrion Healthcare as well as its $17 billion acquisition of generic injectable pharmaceuticals producer Hospira in 2015 signify its plans to emerge as a strong contender in this sector. Even Amgen (AMGN) and Merck & Co. (MRK) have cranked up notable biosimilar development programs to join the race.

Needless to say, the biosimilar rush is all the rage right now. Big biotech companies have already learned their lesson on how the generic drugs business practically took over the pharmaceutical market, growing to almost 90% of overall prescriptions filled but only accounting for less than 30% of the total expenses. Plus, it’s also clear that big money is being made from blockbuster biologics.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-12-12 04:00:302019-12-11 15:52:14The Stampede Into Biosimilar Drugs
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