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Tag Archive for: (AMZN)

Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Go Straight To The Top With The Cloud

Tech Letter

Dealing with the Cloud works, and for every relevant tech company, this division serves as the pipeline to the CEO position.

If this isn’t the case for a tech company, then there’s something egregiously wrong with them!

Take Andy Jassy - he is the mastermind behind Amazon’s (AMZN) lucrative cloud computing division and was the man who succeeded company founder Jeff Bezos.

He was rewarded this important position based on his performance in the cloud and faces a daunting proposition of following Bezos as CEO.  

Bezos incorporated Amazon almost 30 years ago.

Jassy developed a highly profitable and market-leading business, Amazon Web Services, that runs data centers serving a wide range of corporate computing needs.

Cloud 101

If you've been living under a rock the past few years, the cloud phenomenon hasn't passed you by and you still have time to cash in.

You want to hitch your wagon to cloud-based investments in any way, shape, or form.

Amazon leads the cloud industry it created.

It still maintains more than 30% of the cloud market. Microsoft would need to gain a lot of ground to even come close to this jewel of a business.

Amazon relies on AWS to underpin the rest of its businesses and that is why AWS contributes most of Amazon's total operating income.

Total revenue for just the AWS division would operate as a healthy stand-alone tech company if need be.

The future is about the cloud.

These days, the average investor probably hears about the cloud a dozen times a day.

If you work in Silicon Valley, you can quadruple that figure.

So, before we get deep into the weeds with this letter on cloud services, cloud fundamentals, cloud plays, and cloud Trade Alerts, let's get into the basics of what the cloud actually is.

Think of this as a cloud primer.

It's important to understand the cloud, both its strengths and limitations.

Giant companies that have it figured out, such as Salesforce (CRM) and Zscaler (ZS), are some of the fastest-growing companies in the world.

Understand the cloud and you will readily identify its bottlenecks and bulges that can lead to extreme investment opportunities. And that is where I come in.

Cloud storage refers to the online space where you can store data. It resides across multiple remote servers housed inside massive data centers all over the country, some as large as football fields, often in rural areas where land, labor, and electricity are cheap.

They are built using virtualization technology, which means that storage space spans across many different servers and multiple locations. If this sounds crazy, remember that the original Department of Defense packet-switching design was intended to make the system atomic bomb-proof.

As a user, you can access any single server at any one time anywhere in the world. These servers are owned, maintained, and operated by giant third-party companies such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet (GOOGL), which may or may not charge a fee for using them.

The most important features of cloud storage are:

1) It is a service provided by an external provider.

2) All data is stored outside your computer residing inside an in-house network.

3) A simple Internet connection will allow you to access your data at anytime from anywhere.

4) Because of all these features, sharing data with others is vastly easier, and you can even work with multiple people online at the same time, making it the perfect, collaborative vehicle for our globalized world.

Once you start using the cloud to store a company's data, the benefits are many.

No Maintenance

Many companies, regardless of their size, prefer to store data inside in-house servers and data centers.

However, these require constant 24-hour-a-day maintenance, so the company has to employ a large in-house IT staff to manage them - a costly proposition.

Thanks to cloud storage, businesses can save costs on maintenance since their servers are now the headache of third-party providers.

Instead, they can focus resources on the core aspects of their business where they can add the most value, without worrying about managing IT staff of prima donnas.

Greater Flexibility

Today's employees want to have a better work/life balance and this goal can be best achieved by letting them working remotely which effectively happened because of the public health situation. Increasingly, workers are bending their jobs to fit their lifestyles, and that is certainly the case here at Mad Hedge Fund Trader.

How else can I send off a Trade Alert while hanging from the face of a Swiss Alp?

Cloud storage services, such as Google Drive, offer exactly this kind of flexibility for employees.

With data stored online, it's easy for employees to log into a cloud portal, work on the data they need to, and then log off when they're done. This way a single project can be worked on by a global team, the work handed off from time zone to time zone until it's done.

It also makes them work more efficiently, saving money for penny-pinching entrepreneurs.

 

Better Collaboration and Communication

In today's business environment, it's common practice for employees to collaborate and communicate with co-workers located around the world.

For example, they may have to work on the same client proposal together or provide feedback on training documents. Cloud-based tools from DocuSign, Dropbox, and Google Drive make collaboration and document management a piece of cake.

These products, which all offer free entry-level versions, allow users to access the latest versions of any document so they can stay on top of real-time changes which can help businesses to better manage workflow, regardless of geographical location.

Data Protection

Another important reason to move to the cloud is for better protection of your data, especially in the event of a natural disaster. Hurricane Sandy wreaked havoc on local data centers in New York City, forcing many websites to shut down their operations for days.

And we haven’t talked about the ransomware attacks by Eastern Europeans on energy company Colonial Pipeline and meat producer JBS Foods.

The cloud simply routes traffic around problem areas as if, yes, they have just been destroyed by a nuclear attack.

It's best to move data to the cloud, to avoid such disruptions because there your data will be stored in multiple locations.

This redundancy makes it so that even if one area is affected, your operations don't have to capitulate, and data remains accessible no matter what happens. It's a system called deduplication.

Lower Overhead

The cloud can save businesses a lot of money.

By outsourcing data storage to cloud providers, businesses save on capital and maintenance costs, money that in turn can be used to expand the business. Setting up an in-house data center requires tens of thousands of dollars in investment, and that's not to mention the maintenance costs it carries.

Plus, considering the security, reduced lag, up-time and controlled environments that providers such as Amazon's AWS have, creating an in-house data center seems about as contemporary as a buggy whip, a corset, or a Model T.

The cloud is where you want to be.

 

 

 

the cloud

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-12-19 16:02:582023-01-02 16:48:34Go Straight To The Top With The Cloud
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 9, 2022

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
December 9, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(WHY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NEVER WORKS)
(FB), (AAPL), (AMZN), (GOOG), (MSFT), (VIX)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-12-09 10:04:092022-12-09 11:58:16December 9, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Why Technical Analysis Never Works

Diary, Newsletter, Research

Welcome to the year from hell.

We have now collapsed 16% from the January high. Buyers are few and far between, with one day, 5% crashes becoming common.

By comparison, the Mad Hedge Fund Trader is up a nosebleed 88.48% during the same period.

The Harder I work, the luckier I get.

Go figure.

It makes you want to throw up your hands in despair and throw your empty beer can at the TV set.

Let me point out a few harsh lessons learned from this most recent meltdown and the rip-your-face-off rally that followed.

Remember all those market gurus claiming stocks would rise every day for the rest of the 2022?

They were wrong.

This is why almost every Trade Alert I shot out this year have been from the “RISK OFF” side.

“Quantitative Tightening”, or “QT” is definitely not a stock market-friendly environment.

We went into this with big tech leaders, including Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOG), and Microsoft (MSFT), all at or close to all-time highs.

The other lesson learned this year was the utter uselessness of technical analyses. Usually, these guys are right only 50% of the time. This year, they missed the boat entirely. After perfectly buying the last top, they begged you to dump shares at the bottom.

In 2020, when the S&P 500 (SPY) was meandering in a narrow nine-point range, and the Volatility Index (VIX) hugged the $11-$15 neighborhood, they said this would continue for the rest of the year.

It didn’t.

When the market finally broke down in January, cutting through imaginary support levels like a hot knife through butter ($35,000?, $34,000? $33,000?), they said the market would plunge to $30,000, and possibly as low as $20,000.

It didn’t do that either.

If you believed their hogwash, you lost your shirt.

This is why technical analysis is utterly useless as an investment strategy. How many hedge funds use a pure technical strategy? Absolutely none, as it doesn’t make any money on a stand-alone basis.

At best, it is just one of 100 tools you need to trade the market effectively. The shorter the time frame, the more accurate it becomes.

On an intraday basis, technical analysis is actually quite useful. But I doubt few of you engage in this hopeless persuasion. 

This is why I advise portfolio managers and financial advisors to use technical analysis as a means of timing order executions, and nothing more.

Most professionals agree with me.

Technical analysis derives from humans’ preference for looking at pictures instead of engaging in abstract mental processes. A picture is worth 1,000 words, and probably a lot more.

This is why technical analysis appeals to so many young people entering the market for the first time. Buy a book for $5 on Amazon and you can become a Master of the Universe.

Who can resist that?

The problem is that high-frequency traders also bought that same book from Amazon a long time ago and have designed algorithms to frustrate every move of the technical analyst.

Sorry to be the buzzkill, but that is my take on technical analysis.

Hope you enjoyed your cruise.

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/John-Thomas.png 391 368 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-12-09 10:02:272022-12-09 11:57:05Why Technical Analysis Never Works
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 2, 2022

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
December 2, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(ACCOMMODATING TECH CORPORATIONS)
(APPL), (AMZN)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-12-02 15:04:232022-12-02 16:02:44December 2, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Accommodating Tech Corporations

Tech Letter

Wage growth is too strong to even think about pivoting – that was the takeaway from the latest jobs report.

Granted, tech firms have been firing employees left and right, but that can be contextually misleading.

Essentially, tech firms overhired during the government lockdowns and in most cases are only now cutting back to a headcount that reflects the same number as around a year or 2 ago.

The sensationalist headlines are riveting, but going two steps forward and one step back isn’t really a big deal.

The overarching theme of wage growth in white collar jobs means that the leftover tech workers are handsomely paid and possess a lot of leverage.

Since 2020, many tech workers jumped ship or were poached for a 50% pay rise.

Those gaudy wages have tapered off somewhat in technology as the sector slows down, but in many cases, workers don’t care if their 2023 salary is “frozen” after a 50% increase the prior year.

In fact, many of the recent tech firings were either the weakest of a specific team or the "last in, first out" type of hire and fire.

Employers added 263,000 jobs in November and the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7%.

For the three months through November, average hourly earnings rose at a 5.8% annualized rate, the Labor Department said Friday.

Strong demand for labor and high inflation is triggering the formation of a wage-price spiral.

To be honest I am not surprised by the most recent data.

A 3.75% Fed Funds rate is still ultra-accommodative.

How do I know that?

Tech firms are still borrowing massive amounts of borrowed funds at cheap rates.

Amazon (AMZN) sold investment-grade bonds for general corporate purposes, its second offering this year.

The bond deal is $8 billion of senior unsecured bonds in as many as five parts.

The longest portion of the offering, a 10-year security, yields 1.15% over US Treasuries.

Big tech is still tapping the debt markets for its operations and it’s the smart thing to do with a Fed Funds rate at 3.75%.

Amazon isn’t the only one.

Essentially, any big tech corporate stalwart with a strong balance sheet would be an idiot not to take out debt at these levels.

The iPhone company Apple also tapped the debt markets just in August.

Apple sold $6.5 billion in four parts as the tech giant increasingly looks to return cash to shareholders.

The longest portion of the offering, a 40-year security yields 0.92% above US Treasuries.

Proceeds from the sale are earmarked for general corporate purposes, including share repurchases, dividend payments, funding for capital expenditures, and acquisitions.

Although I am not privy to discussions at an operations level at Apple and Amazon, I do believe some of these billions will be used to pay staff higher wages which in turn will fuel higher inflation.

It takes money to stay on top and instead of allowing the best talent at Apple and Amazon to walk for bigger raises, firms have been stumping up the cash.

I expect wage growth to continue to exhibit strong numbers in 2023.

Without crushing the jobs market, inflation will regress somewhat but then take off again in the back half of 2023.

It all means we are range bound as we juxtapose slower rate hikes with deteriorating earnings forecasts.

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-12-02 15:02:202022-12-15 00:01:17Accommodating Tech Corporations
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 16, 2022

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
November 16, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(CONTENT IS KING)
(AMZN), (GOOGL), (AAPL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-11-16 14:04:082022-11-16 18:25:03November 16, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Content is King

Tech Letter

It’s the death of websites.

I love doing presentations to small businesses in my free time, partly to stay in touch with the pulse of the industry’s minnows that have the unenviable task of fighting uphill against the behemoths.

It’s bad enough that the tech giants have scaled locally turning one’s local playground into a disadvantage.

The presentation is aptly titled "Content is King... But Only Through One’s Ownership" where the same parallels are explored and unpacked for my audience.

Proprietary Content – must be yours and you must own it on your own turf - your blog, your vlog, your app, and so on, it goes for everything.

Repurposing content on other platforms as a supplement to your own is one thing, but the moment you adopt an enemy platform as your main platform, that’s your coup de grâce.

SMEs (small businesses enterprise) believe it’s plausible to work with the higher-ups, but don’t forget the higher-ups have every incentive to cut you off from the fountain of youth.

One could say the best skill big tech has today is undermining its competition.

Facebook doesn’t allow posting content that criticizes Facebook, have you ever wondered why?

Website innovation has ground to a halt because of the PageRank algorithm from Google - everybody is making websites the same, a top nav, descriptive text, a smattering of images, and a handful of other elements arranged similarly.

Google’s algorithms and the self-regulating nature of its ecosystem have perverted the chance to have a unique online experience.

Most internet users have discovered that most websites don’t work well and the execution is lousy.

Silicon Valley now has a monopoly on websites.

Because websites are the key to building businesses, Silicon Valley is now using the concept of websites and their position as de-facto moderators to prevent others from developing proper websites, killing off the competition.

Alphabet is notorious for ranking in-house products at the top of page one of any Google search.

Amazon has followed the same practice by sticking its in-house brands at the top of any Amazon search on Amazon.com.

Websites are used to give businesses a chance.

What’s next?

Once we migrate the lion’s share of content to voice platforms over the next 15 years, Google Home, Apple HomePod, or Amazon Alexa could easily choose to remove Joe’s Furniture Moving Business information because they aren’t following arbitrary “policies.”

Big tech will be the gatekeepers of all global information, business, and development in the world and we will need to satisfy their algorithms to get our own content uploaded on their voice platforms.

And because of the nature of voice, users cannot see what else is out there, users will only hear what these companies tell us offering an outsized opportunity to manipulate the user experience generating more dollars for these powerful platforms.

As we inch towards the day the US Central Bank will drop the Federal Funds rate, minus Facebook, readers must load up the truck and pile into these monopolistic tech stocks.

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/speakers.png 485 570 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-11-16 14:02:062022-12-02 03:21:13Content is King
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 11, 2022

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
November 11, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(POSITIONING COUNTS)
(AMZN), (CVNA), (CPI)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-11-11 15:04:012022-11-11 15:51:17November 11, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Positioning Counts

Tech Letter

Yesterday was a historic day for technology stocks as blue chips firm such as ecommerce firm Amazon (AMZN) was up over 12% on the day.

It was a day to remember.

Even the marginal tech stocks did well like digital used car dealer Carvana (CVNA) which delivered almost 31% of performance in just one day.

I would boil down one of the greatest up days in tech stocks’ history to positioning.

Tech stocks have been crushed on almost every inflation report and when the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) dished us a 7.7% increase over last year and 0.4% increase over the prior month, tech stocks took off like a rocket.

We finally clawed one back for the tech companies.

That’s not to say we are in a deflationary environment – hardly so.

However, the bar has been set so unbelievably low at this point, that any measly beat of consensus was going to cause this type of explosive reaction.

The highly positive unintended result is that it offers investors an attractive entry point into tech stocks until the November CPI report in December where we play chicken yet again.

I fully expect dip buyers and portfolio managers chasing year-end performance to jump into this bear market rally until December 13th.

Long term, the Central Bankers must be shaking their heads as this sets the stage for even more inflation as a cheaper dollar will bid up the price of commodities possibly delivering consumers higher oil prices and higher raw material costs next year.

That means higher iPhone costs and higher EV costs that get passed onto the guy or gal opposite the cashier's counter – the American consumer.

Other knock-on effects will mean higher gas prices for Uber, Lyft, and DoorDash drivers to deliver hot meals.

Celebrating a 7.7% inflation headline as a homerun is funny when we think about it, but that’s how negative positioning was going into yesterday.

The indexes for used cars and trucks, medical care, apparel, and airline fares all declined over the month.

Looking into individual aspects of the report, housing prices continued their climb, with the cost of shelter recording its largest month-on-month increase — 0.8% — since August 1990, while rising 6.9% from a year ago.

The food index increased 0.6%, down slightly from September's 0.8% increase.

I can easily see the shelter portion of inflation dropping for the November CPI report in December because shelter is a lagging indicator and my analysis earths reductions in rental listing prices and greater supply.

Therefore, shelter coming down would stoke yet another bull rush into New Year for tech stocks.

In a nutshell, short-term highly positive and long-term somewhat negative for tech stocks is how I would categorize this report.

At the end of the day, investors and traders scoff at the 5% Fed Funds rate as not a big deal and are weaponizing any scintilla of relative loosening to pile into the long side.

This is the problem when the smartest people in the world are convinced that the Fed will save the day if systemic contagion ever emerges and until then, keep bulldozing into the bull side on every modicum of perceived easing to the credit liquidity story.

It is basically a lift-off for tech stocks until December 13th.

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-11-11 15:02:592022-11-11 15:51:57Positioning Counts
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 10, 2022

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 10, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(TEN MORE TRENDS TO BET THE RANCH ON),
(AAPL), (AMZN), (GOOGL), (TSLA), (CRSP), (EDIT), (NTLA)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-11-10 09:06:482022-11-10 14:08:41November 10, 2022
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