Global Market Comments
November 2, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(OCTOBER 31 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(EDIT), (TMO), (OVAS), (GE), (GLD), (AMZN), (SQ), (VIX), (VXX), (GS), (MSFT), (PIN), (UUP), (XRT), (AMD), (TLT)
Tag Archive for: (AMZN)
Below please find subscribers’ Q&A for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader October 31 Global Strategy Webinar with my guest and co-host Bill Davis of the Mad Day Trader.
As usual, every asset class long and short was covered. You are certainly an inquisitive lot, and keep those questions coming!
Q: I would like to keep CRISPR stocks as a one or two-year-old, or even longer if it is prudent. What do you think?
A: Yes, there is a CRISPR revolution going on in biotech—I’m extremely bullish on all these stocks, like Editas Medicine (EDIT), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), and Ovascience Inc. (OVAS). If any of these individual companies don’t move forward with their own technology, they will get taken over. The principal asset of these companies is not the patents or the products, it’s the staff, and there is an extreme shortage in CRISPR specialists (and anybody who knows anything about monoclonal antibodies).
Q: Could you explain how to manage LEAPs? For example, the Gold (GLD) and the General Electric (GE) LEAPs. Sit and leave them or trade them short term?
A: You make a lot of money trading long-term LEAPs. Just because you own a year and a half LEAP doesn’t mean that you keep it for a year and a half. You sell it on the first big profit, and I happen to know that on both the Gold (GLD) and the (GE) LEAPs we sent out, people made a 50% profit in the first week. So, I told them: sell it, take the profit. The market always gives you another chance to get in and buy them cheap. You make the money on the turnover, on the volume—not hanging out trying to hit a home run.
Q: Why did you only close the Amazon (AMZN) November $1,550-$1,600 vertical bull call spread and not roll the strike prices down and out?
A: Well I actually did do the down and out strike roll out first, which is the super aggressive approach. By adding the November $1,350-$1,400 vertical bull call spread position on Monday at the market lows and doubling the size—we took a huge 30% position in Amazon and that position alone should bring in about $3600 in profits in two weeks, at expiration. And when I put on that second position I told myself that on the next big rally I would get out of the high-risk trouble making position, which was the November $1,550-$1,600 vertical bull call spread. So that’s how you trade your way out of a 30% drop in three weeks in one of the best tech stocks in the market.
Q: Is AT&T (T) no longer a good buy at these prices?
A: All of the telephone companies have legacy technology, meaning they are all dying. Basically, AT&T is about owning a bunch of rusting copper wire spread around the country. They haven’t been able to innovate new technologies fast enough to keep up with others who have. The only reason to own this is for the very high 6.56% dividend. That said, dividends can be cut. Look at General Electric which cut its dividend earlier this year. Whatever you make of the dividend can get lost in the principal.
Q: Do you think Square (SQ) is a good buy at this level?
A: Absolutely, it’s a screaming buy. It’s one of the favorite companies of the Mad Hedge Technology Letter and one of the preeminent disruptors of the banks. We think there’s another 400% gain in Square from here. It’s dominating FinTech now.
Q: When do you expect to close the short position in the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX)?
A: If we can get the Volatility Index (VIX) down to $15, the (VXX) should crater. We’ll take a hit on the time decay and that’s why I say we may be able to sell it for 20 cents in the future when this happens. We’ll still take a 50% hit on the position, but half is better than none.
Q: What happened to Microsoft (MSFT) last week?
A: People sold their winners. They had a great earnings report and great long-term earnings prospects, but everyone in the world owned it. Buy the long-term LEAP on this one.
Q: If we want to double up on the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX), how do you plan to do it?
A: Go out to further with your expiration date. When you go long the (VXX) you only buy the most distant expiration date. I would buy the February 15 expiration as soon as it becomes available.
Q: How do you see Goldman Sachs (GS) from here to the end of the year?
A: It may go up a little bit as we get some index money coming into play for year-end, but not much; I expect banks to continue to underperform. They are no longer a rising interest rate play. They are a destruction by FinTech play.
Q: Is it too soon for emerging markets in India (PIN)?
A: As long as the dollar (UUP) is strong, which is going to be at least another year, you want to avoid emerging markets like the plague. As long as the Federal Reserve keeps raising interest rates, increasing the yield differential with other currencies, the buck keeps going up.
Q: What are your thoughts on retail ETFs like the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT)?
A: You may get lucky and catch a rally on that but the medium term move for retail anything is down. They are all getting Amazoned.
Q: Is it better to increase long exposure the day before the election?
A: No, what we saw starting on Tuesday was the pre-election move. That said, I expect it to continue after the election and into yearend.
Q: Any opinions on Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)?
A: Yes, this is a great level. It was extremely overbought two months ago but has now dropped 50%. It is a great long-term LEAP candidate.
Q: What about the W bottom in the stock market that everyone thinks will happen?
A: I’m one of those people. So far, the bottom for the move in the S&P 500 is looking pretty convincing, but we will test the faith sometime in the next week I’m sure. We got close enough to the February $252 low to make this a very convincing move. It sets up range trading for the market for the next year.
Q: How do you figure the inflation rate is 3.1%?
A: The year-on-year Consumer Price Index for September printed at 2.3%, and the most recent months have been running at an annualized 2.9% rate. Given that this data is months old we are probably seeing 3.1% on a monthly annualized basis now given all the anecdotal evidence of rising prices and wages that are out there. That is certainly what the bond market believes with its recent sharp selloff and why I will continue to be a fantastic short. Sell every United States US Treasury Bond Fund ETF (TLT) rally. Like hockey great Wayne Gretzky said, you have to aim not where the hockey puck is, but where it's going to be.
Q: Will rising interest rates kill the housing market?
A: It already has. A 5% 30-year mortgage rate shuts a lot of first time Millennial buyers out of the market. We are seeing real estate slowing all over the country. Los Angeles is getting the worst hit.
Q: How do you see the Christmas selling season going?
A: It’s going to be great, but this may be the last good one for a while. And Amazon is getting half the business.
Q: October was terrible. How do you see November playing out?
A: It could well be a mirror image of October to the upside. We are already $1,000 Dow points off the bottom. So far, so good. Throw fundamentals out the window and buy whatever has fallen the most….like Amazon.
Did I mention you should buy Amazon?
Good luck and good trading
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
Ten Years of Consumer Price Index
Global Market Comments
November 1, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE TERRIFYING CHART FORMATION THAT IS SETTING UP),
(SPY), (AMD), (MU), (AMZN), (NFLX),
(THE TECHNOLOGY NIGHTMARE COMING TO YOUR CITY)
The Mad Hedge Fund Trader is seeing its biggest one-day gains since the inception of our Trade Alert Service 11 years ago. By the time you read this, we will have picked up an astounding 11% profit for the entire portfolio in 24 hours.
However, this being Halloween, I don’t want to sound like I’m whistling by the graveyard. But what I am about to say will scare the daylights out of you.
I hate to say I told you so but my prediction a year ago that the bull market would end on May 10, 2019 at 4:00 PM is starting to look pretty good.
If I am right, the charts for the S&P 500 (SPY) are setting up a classic head and shoulders top. The left shoulder was created by the January 2018 rally to $282.
We just saw the head created at the beginning of October at $293. All that remains is to build the right shoulder back up to $282 by the spring. What will then follow is the crying.
This is not a matter of throwing a dart at a calendar or reciting a chant taught to me by a long-dead Yaqui Indian. It is a simple matter of math. Here’s how it goes:
*The Fed Raises funds rate 25 basis points per quarter for the next four quarters to 3.25%
*The Yields Curve Inverts, taking short rates higher than long rates now at 3.15%
*Bond yield spread trades increase massively going into the inversion as traders ramp up the size to make up for shrinking spreads.
*When the spread turns negative, they dump everything, creating an interest rate spike to 4% or 5%.
*Inverted yield curves last an average of 14 months or until February 2020 in this cycle when a recession begins.
*Stock markets peak on average seven months before recessions, and you arrive at Friday, May 10, 2019 at 4:00 PM EST as the date for the demise of the bull market. At that point, it will be ten years and two months old, the longest such move in history.
A lot of people asked why I sent out so few trade alerts during the summer and going into the fall.
In fact, the list of negatives has reached laughable proportions:
*Longest bull market in history
*In the face of rising interest rates
*In the face of rising oil prices
*Rising inflation
*Nothing else to buy
*Only bull market in the world
*Valuations approaching two-decade highs
*Overwhelmingly concentration in big cap tech
*Double top in the market on an Equal Weight S&P 500 chart
*Record retail inflows into ETFs
*Recession has already started in the auto industry
*Recession has already started in the housing industry
*Rotation to value defensive stocks underway
*Massive unicorn IPOs planned in 2019- $215 billion
*Slowing GDP Growth 4.2% to 3.5%
*Large amount of economic growth sucked forward from 2019 as businesses accelerate Chinese imports to beat the tariffs
*The same is going on in China to buy our exports
Should you throw up your hands, dump all your stocks, and hide out in cash?
Absolute not! In fact, the last six months of a bull market are often the most profitable. Many tech stocks like Micron Technology (MU) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) have dropped by half in recent months. That means they have to double to get back to their old highs.
Other big quality stocks such as Amazon (AMZN) and Netflix (NFLX) have plunged by 30% and only have to appreciate by 43% to hit highs. It is, in fact, the best entry point for large-cap tech stocks since 2015 with valuations at a three-year low.
If I am wrong, the trade war with China plunges us into recession and ends the bull market sooner. Almost all the “worry” items on the list above are getting worse by the day.
Save That Date!
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
November 1, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(LOOK AT ZENDESK FOR YOUR NEXT TEN BAGGER)
(ZEN), (RHT), (AMZN), (MSFT), (CRM), (IBM), (SNAP)
At the recent Mad Hedge Lake Tahoe Conference, I pinpointed software companies as a robust group of tech stocks that are the perfect late cycle investment in the economic environment we find ourselves in now.
To add some granularity about my thesis, I would like to start elaborating on an up-and-coming software stock that I find compelling and in the middle of a growth sweet spot.
And with the rapacious pullback, the tech sector has experienced as of late, this high-octane growth stock is poised to rev back up, albeit with more than your average volatility attached to its stock symbol.
If you can stomach the volatility, then Zendesk (ZEN) is the company for you to dip your toe in.
Zendesk is a customer service software offering solutions to clients through a flexible platform revolving around customer service tickets.
This $6 billion market cap tech firm thriving in the dodgy San Francisco Tenderloin district only need to be reminded of how fast a tech firm can be disrupted by stepping out of the office and experiencing ground zero of the San Francisco homeless movement in the scruffy Tenderloin.
I usually get lambasted for the lack of time I spend following budding tech firms, but you cannot blame me when the bulk of this year’s stock market gains have been extracted by the biggest and mightiest tech titans.
That does not mean all small tech is dead, but they certainly do have heightened existential risk because of the Amazons (AMZN) and Microsofts (MSFT) of the world, spreading their network effects far and wide.
International Business Machines Corporation’s (IBM) purchase of cloud company Red Hat (RHT) underscores the value of applying M&A to grow the top and bottom line, and the chronic bidders of these smaller minnows are usually the Amazons and Microsofts themselves who have the cash to dole out.
Salesforce (CRM) is always adding to its arsenal of integrated software companies that can scale up in the cloud, and Marc Benioff’s M&A strategy has thrived to devastating effect boosting the bottom and top line.
I must admit, tech does get the rub of the green over other industries because of the scaling effect afforded to profit poor tech companies.
The ample time to prove to investors they can snatch a growing user base, enhance product offerings, and develop an eco-system intertwined with recurring subscription products is not fair to other industries who are judged on different metrics mainly profits and profits now.
Well, life isn’t fair.
The addressable market is usually massive causing investors to stick with these burgeoning tech firms through thick and thin.
Zendesk is another company burning money, but let me tell you, they are no Snapchat (SNAP).
Operating margins are marching towards positive territory, meaning this outfit is well-run.
It was only at the beginning of 2015 when Zendesk’s operating margin registered -53%, and since then, they have dramatically reduced it to -36% at the end of 2016 and now -24% in 2018.
Gross margins next quarter will be hit a bit with its acquisition of Base CRM, headquartered in Mountain View, California and R&D offices in Krakow, Poland, offering a web-based all-in-one sales platform featuring tools for email, phone dialing, pipeline management, and forecasting.
Improving service offerings in the tech world usually means nabbing niche cloud companies that can easily be integrated into the larger eco-system and Base CRM, even though it has lower margins than Zendesk, is a nice pickup for the company boosting the top line while expanding cross-selling activities.
Then there is the sales revenue growth demonstrating all the hallmarks powerful software companies live up to with its 39% quarterly revenue growth.
Zendesk’s management has remarked that they fully expect to hit $1 billion in total sales by 2020 which is more than double the 2017 annual revenue of $430 million.
This year, Zendesk is forecasted to post just shy of $600 million in sales.
Large clients keep piling in hoping to modernize their customer service operations and wean themselves off the siloed legacy systems.
Disruption by some fresh newcomer in a disruptive industry that they operate in is usually the trigger forcing companies to spruce up their customer service software.
This path of migration will healthily continue for Zendesk reaffirming management’s thesis of $1 billion in sales by 2020.
Zendesk, flaunting off their innovation skills, identified the universal popularity of messenger app WhatsApp as an effective platform for its services and rolled out a product that integrates Zendesk services with WhatsApp.
This will allow businesses to manage customer service interactions and engage with customers directly on WhatsApp.
The customized integration links conversations between businesses and their customers on WhatsApp within Zendesk.
This move will allow Zendesk to stretch their tentacles further and wider while being able to provide faster support for customer service tickets which are incredibly time-sensitive.
Since management highlighted that WhatsApp is the go-to messenger in Asia Pacific and Latin America, there was no reason not to extend their offerings in a way that captures this vital userbase.
The WhatsApp pivot has been a nice addition with Zendesk’s management remarking that they “handle over 20% of our order status inquiries daily with WhatsApp and Zendesk, which is much faster than traditional methods.”
Omnichannel support within Zendesk’s platform will be key to securing the growth it needs to reach its $1 billion of sales milestone.
Innovation is the crucial ingredient in constructing the perfect products that can maximize customer service performance.
Its overseas exploits are not just a flash in the pan with its services supported in 30 languages and offices in 15 different countries. It all makes sense considering half their revenue is outside of America.
With IBM’s recent acquisition of Red Hat, buyers are still hunting for the right pieces to add to their portfolio.
The Red Hat purchase proved that demand still eclipses supply by a far margin.
Zendesk is one of those in the queue for a big buyer to swoop in with a mega offer.
It’s no guarantee that a company will pay a 63% premium like IBM did, but some sort of premium will be definitely warranted.
Zendesk offers the type of robust growth and premium cloud services that could easily fit into a bigger cloud player looking to improve their assortment of cloud tools.
This type of tailwind itself will naturally boost the stock by 5-10% alone if the macro picture can somehow manage to gain footing for the rest of the year.
As with the rest of tech, Zendesk dipped about 20% in the last 30 days but by no means does that mean this is a bad company with a weak future.
I would very much argue the opposite.
The weakness in sales offers a prime entry point in a fast-growing company that is part of the software and cloud movement that I have incessantly harped about.
If this company can show continued operating margins growth, maintain sales growth of above 30% YOY, and demonstrate product innovation, this stock will break out to higher levels.
As of now, that is exactly the road they are headed down.
Business abroad is doing so well that Zendesk recently splurged on a Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) headquarters in Dublin, Ireland coined as the “the tech capital of Europe.”
Zendesk started with two employees in Dublin in 2012 and now boast over 300 employees occupying 58,000 square feet in a new office costing $10 million.
By 2020, Zendesk expects to build their Dublin branch to over 500 employees implying that the overseas pipeline is ripe for the taking.
I am highly bullish Zendesk and recommend that readers check out this attractive growth story.
SNAZZY NEW HEADQUARTER IN DUBLIN
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
October 31, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(IBM’S PUTS ON A RED HAT)
(RHT), (IBM), (AMZN), (MSFT), (GOOGL), (ORCL)
What took you so long, Ginni?
That was my first reaction when I heard International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) was making a big strategic shift by purchasing open source cloud company Red Hat (RHT) in a landmark $34 billion deal.
Ginni Rometty, IBM’s CEO since 2012, has presided over persistent negative sales growth and has done zilch for investors to conjure up some type of lasting hope for this company.
Not only has Rometty failed to grow the top line, but with an underwhelming 3-year EPS growth rate of -2%, the execution and performance haven’t been there as well.
Somehow and someway, she has maintained an iron-clad grip on her job at the helm of IBM and her legacy at IBM will be wholly determined by the failure or success of this Red Hat acquisition.
IBM shares sold off on the news as shareholders digested this bombshell.
Rometty took a hatchet to share buybacks and suspended them for 2020 and 2021 alienating a segment of their loyal shareholder base.
I can tell you one thing about this move – it smells of desperation and it won’t vault IBM into the conversation of Amazon (AMZN) Web Services or the Microsoft (MSFT) Azure.
The biggest winner of this deal is Red Hat’s CEO Jim Whitehurst who has been dangling the company for sale for a while.
Alphabet (GOOGL) was in the mix and had the opportunity to snag a last-second deal, but it never came to fruition.
The 63% premium IBM must pay for a company who only grew quarterly sales 14% YOY and quarterly EPS by 10% is expensive, but that is where we are with IBM.
Clearly overpaying was better than doing nothing at all.
IBM continues to hemorrhage sales and stopping the blood flow is the first step.
Rometty was responsible for the utter failure of artificial intelligence initiative Watson whose terrible management was a key reason for its implosion.
Analyzing this historic company gave me insight into the pitiful causing me to write a bearish story on IBM last month. To read that story, please click here.
Not only was the agreed price exorbitant, but Red Hat’s stock was trending south even before the interest rate induced sell-off rocked the tech sector of late.
Red Hat missed on sales revenue forecasts and offered weak guidance.
It could be the case that Whitehurst was actively seeking a buyer because he felt that Red Hat would go ex-growth in the next few years.
Red Hat was rumored to be on the market for quite a while looking to fetch a premium price for a company starting to stagnate with its visions of grandeur growth.
Rometty’s career-defining moment is high-risk and high-reward and is born out of being cornered by leading tech companies leaving IBM in their dust.
The deal finally allows IBM to return back to sales growth which will occur two years later, and Rometty will finally have that monkey off her back for now.
But the bigger question is will Rometty still have her job in two years if this experiment becomes toxic.
My guess is that Red Hat CEO Jim Whitehurst is automatically the next in line for the IBM throne if Rometty missteps, and piling on pressure will force IBM to evolve or die out.
And even though they will return back to growth, 2% growth is no reason to do cartwheels over.
The real work starts now and it will take years to turn around this dinosaur.
On the brighter side, the massive deals instantly improve sentiment that was flagging for years and puts IBM back on the map.
The synergies between IBM and Red Hat could be robust.
Red Hat can surely help IBM become a higher-quality hybrid cloud solutions company.
Models like this are the industry standard as luring a company into your cloud is one thing, but being able to cross-sell a plethora of extra add-on software services in the cloud is the necessary path to raising profitability.
IBM also inherits a slew of talented software engineers that it can mobilize for innovative cloud products. Red Hat’s products such as JBoss middleware and the OpenShift software for deploying applications in virtual containers could make IBM’s hybrid cloud more appealing and could help retain customers with the additional offerings.
Doubling down on the software side of the business was a strategy I pinpointed at the Mad Hedge Lake Tahoe conference and deals like this highlight the value of this type of assets.
There is a hoard of legacy tech companies like Oracle (ORCL) that is in dire need of such strategic injections and fresh ideas.
This won’t be the last deal of 2018, other cloud deals could shortly follow.
On the other side of the coin, hardware deals have turned rotten quickly with stark examples such as Hewlett-Packard’s (HPQ) $25 billion acquisition of Compaq, Microsoft’s $7.2 billion disastrous buy of Nokia’s mobile handset business and Google’s unimpressive $12.5 billion deal for Motorola Mobility that they later unloaded to Chinese PC company Lenovo.
Investors must be patient if IBM has any chance of completing this turnaround.
Listening to Rometty talk about this deal clearly reveals that she is hyping it up for something way bigger than it actually is.
Let’s not forget that Rometty’s tenure as CEO began in 2012 when IBM shares were trading north of $200 and she has presided over the company while the stock got pulverized by almost 30%.
It pains me that she is the one given the chance to turn the company around after years of underperformance.
Let’s not forget that at the end of 2017, IBM only had a 1.9% share of the cloud infrastructure, about 25 times smaller than Amazon Web Services.
The costly nature of the deal could also put a dent into IBM’s dividend, alienating another swath of its hardcore shareholder base.
Historically, IBM has had minimal success with transformative M&A and the industry competitors dominating IBM magnify the poor management performance headed by Rometty.
Rometty declaring that this deal means IBM will be “no. 1 in hybrid cloud” is overly optimistic, but this is a move in the right direction and could keep IBM spiralling out of control.
A return to sales growth might help stem the bleeding of its downtrodden share price, but Amazon and Microsoft are too far ahead to catch.
Investors will need to wait and see if the synergies between IBM’s and Red Hat’s products are meaningful or not.
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
October 30, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(HOW ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE WILL ENHANCE OR DESTROY YOUR PORTFOLIO)
(TSLA), (AMZN), (FB)
Anti-AI physicist Professor Stephen Hawking was a staunch supporter of preserving human interests against the future existential threat from machines and artificial intelligence (AI).
He was diagnosed with motor neuron disease, more commonly known as Lou Gehrig's disease, in 1963 at the age of 21 and sadly passed away March 14, 2018, at the age of 76.
Famed for his work on black holes, Professor Hawking represented the human quest to maintain its superiority against quickly advancing artificial acculturation.
His passing is a huge loss for mankind as his voice was a deterrent to AI's relentless march to supremacy. He was one of the few who had the authority to opine on these issues. Gone is a voice of reason.
Critics have argued that living with AI poses a red alert threat to privacy, security, and society as a whole. Unfortunately, those most credible and knowledgeable about AI are tech firms. They have shown that policing themselves on this front is remarkably unproductive.
Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Facebook (FB), has labeled naysayers as irresponsible and dismissed the threat. After failing to prevent Russian interference in the last election, he is exhibiting the same defensive posture translating into a de facto admission of guilt. His track record of shirking accountability is becoming a trend.
Share prices will materially nosedive if AI is stonewalled and development stunted. Many CEOs who stake careers on doubling or tripling down on AI cannot see it die out. There is too much money to lose.
The world will see major improvements in the quality of life in the next 10 years. But there is another side of the coin in which Zuckerberg and company refuse to delve into the dark side of technology.
Defective Amazon (AMZN) Alexa has been producing unexplained laughter because of a mistaken command to start laughing. Despite avoiding calamity, these small events show the magnitude of potential chaos capable of haywire AI functions. If one day, a user attempts to order a box of tissues and Alexa burns down the house, who is liable?
Tesla's (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk has shared his anxiety about robots flipping the script on humans. Elon acknowledges that AI and autonomous vehicles are important factors in the battle for new technology. The winner is yet to be determined as China has bet the ranch with unlimited resources from Chairman Xi.
Musk has hinted that robots and humans could merge into one species in the future. Is this the next point of competition among tech companies? The future is murky at best.
Bill Gates noted that robots should be taxed like humans. This reflects the bubble in which the ultra-elite reside. This comment implies that humans and robots are on the same level and shows a severe lack of empathy for the 40% of working Americans who will be replaced by machines over the next 10 years.
The West is comprised of a deeply hierarchical system of winners and losers. Hawking's premise that evolution has inbuilt greed can be found in the underpinnings of America's economic miracle.
Wall Street has bred a culture that is entirely self-serving regardless of the bigger system in which it finds itself.
Most of us are participating in this perpetual money game chase because our system treats it as a natural part of life. AI will help more people do well in this paper chase to the detriment of the majority.
Quarterly earnings performance is paramount for CEOs. Return value back to shareholders or face the sack in the morning. It's impossible to convince anyone that America's capitalist model is deteriorating in the greatest bull market of all time.
Wall Street has an insatiable hunger for cutting-edge technology from companies that sequentially beat earnings and raise guidance. Flourishing technology companies enrich the participants creating a Teflon-like resistance to downside market risk.
The issue with Professor Hawking's work is that his time frame is too far in the future. Professor Hawking was probably correct, but it will take 25 years to prove it.
The world is quickly changing as science fiction becomes reality. The year 2019 will signal the real beginning of AI in tangible form when autonomous fleets flood main streets.
People on Wall Street are a product of the system in place and earn a tremendous amount of money because they proficiently execute a specialized job. Traders are busy focusing on how to move ahead of the next guy.
Firms building autonomous cars are free to operate as is. Hyper-accelerating technology spurs on the development of AI, machine learning and enhanced algorithms. Record profits will topple and investors will funnel investments back into an even narrower grouping of technology stocks.
Professor Hawking said we need to explore our technological capabilities to the fullest in order to avoid extinction. In 2018, exploring these new capabilities still equals monetizing through the medium of products and services.
This is all bullish for equities as the leading companies associated with AI will not be subject to any imminent regulation, blowback or government intervention.
The only solution is keeping companies accountable by a function of law or creating a third-party task force to regulate AI.
In 2018, the thought of overseeing robots sounds crazy. However, by 2019, it might be as normal as uncontrollable laughter from your smart home.
