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Tag Archive for: (APPL)

Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Chickens Come Home to Roost

Tech Letter

I hit the nail on the head – I’ll take another victory lap and you’re welcome.

I’ve been telling all my subscribers.

Apple backing off production of the new iPhone 14s signals that the US consumer is tapped out.

Throw in the towel!

What does that mean?

At the low-end, US consumers don’t have the extra funds to pay for all the streaming services or the extra hardware, gizmos, and gadgets they are used to.

That means the iPhone 14 Pro is next to get squeezed from the budget after an eye-watering $1,500 pretax price tag. At least at that price point, it includes 1 TB of data storage, but no charger.

Personally, I acknowledge that Apple makes a pretty darn good smartphone, but it’s way too overpriced in 2022 and there aren’t enough improvements to justify the lofty prices.

But the killing of new iPhone production goes well beyond just the issue of global sales of smartphones, this is a harbinger of things to come as global economic growth goes from bad to worse.

This is also legit confirmation that inflation is not only transitory, but it’s terrorizing US consumers’ budgets.

Interestingly enough, the most expensive models did still see high demand, confirming what I already have been saying is that high income US consumers are navigating elevated inflation more than superb even if conditions aren’t ideal.

Because they are in good shape – great personal financial balance sheets – hope it stays that way.

Thus, Apple supplier is shifting production capacity from lower-priced iPhones to premium models.

High income households are passing on their costs to the end consumers in the companies they run, and they are jacking up rents in the condos they let out.

They are even hitting up Walmart more than usual and abstaining from pricier options like Whole Foods or Whole paycheck.

Fantastically, high income Americans are ready to spend, spend, spend and that’s great news for employers and employees, but bad news for the bond market.

Apple is cutting the iPhone 14 product family by as many as 6 million units in the second half of this year.

Instead, the company will aim to produce 90 million handsets for the period, roughly the same level as the prior year and in line with Apple’s original forecast this summer.

In Taipei, key chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) fell 2.2% and Apple’s biggest iPhone assembler Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. (HNHPF) was down 2.9%, amid a wide selloff of electronics suppliers.

ASML Holding NV (ASML), maker of advanced chipmaking gear, dropped as much as 3.2% in Amsterdam.

Purchases of the iPhone 14 series over its first three days of availability in China were 11% down on its predecessor the previous year.

Readers must be aware of Apple being the biggest component of the S&P. When Apple goes, so does the market.

Then there is the issue of, maybe the phones just suck now, since each iteration is the trigger for higher expectations which aren’t really met anymore.

Either way, CEO Tim Cook needs to roll up his sleeves, and this report ostensibly means that Apple won’t return to 2022 highs anytime soon.

It also vindicates and confirms that we are still in a sell the rallies mode or buy the dip after deep selloffs mode. This is a short-term traders' world right now and the data backs me up.

Happy trading!

 

iphone

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/apple-phone.png 690 1220 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-09-28 16:02:112022-09-29 03:09:36Chickens Come Home to Roost
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

September 9, 2022

Tech Letter

 Mad Hedge Technology Letter
September 9, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE GIFT THAT KEEPS GIVING)
(APPL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-09-09 13:04:142022-09-09 13:49:14September 9, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Gift That Keeps Giving

Tech Letter

If it isn’t broken, then don’t fix it.

That’s what Apple (APPL) management is telling us with the brand-spanking new iPhone 14.

When we boil it down, upper middle-class Americans love Apple products, and the company is taking advantage of that by betting they aren’t willing to move on from their shiny iPhone and iOS.

Apple doesn’t have a monopoly, but the closest thing to it.

Apple product launches once revealed exciting new design features such as touchscreens and Face ID, this event’s debut of a better camera, new notch design, and satellite-enabled emergency calls received a lukewarm critique by reviewers.

This is a change from what used to happen – there used to be way more innovation in the phone but it's not important.

I don’t buy it either when people say there’s not much more a smartphone can do.

That’s not necessarily true.

There is still a lot a smartphone can do, the builders and developers of it just haven’t thought about it yet.

The lack of big changes to the phone design becomes an even bigger issue when you take into account the ‘‘eye-watering’’ price tags attached.

Available for pre-order on September 9, prices for the iPhone 14 start from $1399, and the iPhone 14 Pro from $1749. Price hikes were high in countries with strong Apple brand loyalty like Germany, Japan, and the UK while the prices in America are the same as the last iPhone iteration.

Not everyone is on board with how the new products are rolling out.

Just the other day, the Brazilian government suspended the sales of iPhones without chargers.

Apple is also facing a $2.5 million fine from Brazil's Ministry of Justice and Public Security (MJSP). This is on top of a reported $2 million fine Apple incurred in 2021 after announcing its first smartphone to ship without a power adapter in the box, the iPhone 12 series. Apple can appeal Brazil's decision.

Imagine if houses start to get sold without the car garage door.

Governments are fighting back in some instances, and in some cases, not at all, but people can’t refute that iPhones sell themselves even without a charger, earphones, cover, and whatever you want to strip out of it.  

They are high-quality products and priced as such.

Ultimately, this is genius by CEO Tim Cook who oversaw Apple earnings of $275 billion in revenue in 2020 and did $365 billion in annual revenue in 2021.

Not many companies can add an extra $90 billion in revenue in 365 calendar days.

If a CEO can get by with selling basically the same product at a higher price and the consumers agree to it, then I believe that’s magic by a CEO who knows how to sell effectively.

Apple can get away with it.

Competitors aren’t so far ahead where the new product innovations can supersede the power of the Apple brand.

Also, it means billions of dollars saved in not trying to improve the product through research and development.

This money can be used to buy back stock, execute stock splits, issue higher dividends, and pay executive salaries. Cook’s salary is only $3 million annually, but his restricted stock options each year are almost $100 million.

Top level tech CEOs are handsomely paid and worth every cent.

Nobody ever said Tim Cook was Steve Jobs, he’s not a creative talent. Cook will never revolutionize technology or the internet.

Yet, he knows how to milk products others created like the iPhone for maximum profits which Jobs could never do.

And that’s what he is here to do until infinity. Last time I checked, we all need our smartphones to function in the world, so demand won’t fall off a cliff.

I am bullish Apple stock, and I can’t wait for my $2,000 iPhone 14 PRO. I’m also buying 2 extra chargers.

 

 

 

apple iphone

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/iphone-e1662745893526.png 200 490 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-09-09 13:02:102022-10-03 02:59:04The Gift That Keeps Giving
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 22, 2022

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
July 22, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

AUTOMATION AND BANKING)
(SQ), (PYPL), (APPL), (AMZN)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-07-22 14:04:002022-07-22 16:47:50July 22, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Automation and Banking

Tech Letter

Automation is taking place at warp speed, displacing employees from all walks of life. 

According to a recent report, the U.S. financial industry will depose of 200,000 workers in the next decade because of automating efficiencies.

Yes, humans are going the way of the dodo bird and banking will effectively become algorithms working for a handful of executives and engineers.

The x-factor in this equation is the $150 billion annually that banks spend on technological development in-house which is higher than any other industry.

Welcome to the world of lower cost, shedding wage bills, and boosting performance rates.

We forget to realize that employee compensation eats up 50% of bank expenses.

The 200,000 job trimmings would result in 10% of the U.S. banking sector getting axed.

The hyped-up “golden age of banking” should deliver extraordinary savings and premium services to the customer at no extra cost.

This iteration of mobile and online banking has delivered functionality that no generation of customers has ever seen.

The most gutted part of banking jobs will naturally occur in the call centers because they are the low-hanging fruit for automated chatbots.

A few years ago, chatbots were suboptimal, even spewing out arbitrary profanity, but they have slowly crawled up in performance metrics to the point where some customers are unaware that they are communicating with an artificially engineered algorithm.

The wholesale integration of automating the back-office staff isn’t the end of it, the front office will experience a 30% drop in numbers sullying the predated ideology that front office staff are irreplaceable heavy hitters.

The front-office staff has already felt the brunt of downsizing with purges carried out from 2022 representing a twelfth year of continuous decline.

Front-office traders and brokers are being replaced by software engineers as banks follow the wider trend of every company transitioning into a tech company.

The infusion of artificial intelligence will lower mortgage processing costs by 30% and the accumulation of hordes of data will advance the marketing effort into a smart, multi-pronged, hybrid cloud-based, and hyper-targeted strategy.

The last two human bank hiring waves are a distant memory.

The most recent spike came in the 7 years after the dot com crash of 2001 until the sub-prime crisis of 2008 adding around half a million jobs on top of the 1.5 million that existed then.

After the subsidies wear off from the pandemic, I do believe that the banking sector will quietly put in the call to trim even more.

The longest and most dramatic rise in human bankers was from 1935 to 1985, a 50-year boom that delivered over 1.2 million bankers to the U.S. workforce.

This type of human hiring will likely never be seen again in the U.S. financial industry.

Recomposing banks through automation is crucial to surviving as fintech companies like PayPal (PYPL) and Square (SQ) are chomping at the bit and even tech companies like Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) have started tinkering with new financial products. 

And if you thought that this phenomenon was limited to the U.S., think again, Europe is by far the biggest culprit by already laying off 63,036 employees in 2019, more than 10x higher than the number of U.S. financial job losses and that has continued in 2021 and 2022.

In a sign of the times, the European outlook has turned demonstrably negative with Deutsche Bank announcing layoffs of 40,000 employees through 2023 as it scales down its investment banking business.

Don’t tell your kid to get into banking, because they will most likely be feeding on scraps at that point.  

 

automated

THE LAST STAGE OF HUMAN-FACING BANK SERVICES IS NOW!

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/traditional-banking-e1658521100406.png 276 450 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-07-22 14:02:242022-07-29 01:03:27Automation and Banking
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 6, 2022

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
July 6, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(GOOD NEWS IS BAD NEWS)
(ARKK), (TSLA), (APPL), (ASML)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-07-06 16:04:102022-07-06 16:29:54July 6, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Good News Is Bad News

Tech Letter

As the bear market rally picked up steam Tuesday with even Cathy Wood’s growth ETF (ARKK) gaining 9%, it’s clearly a reaction to the Nasdaq repricing its biggest underlying risk.

The market is now pricing in a global recession and that has replaced inflation as the number one worry for investors.

This new development has led to the Nasdaq sniffing out the return to the bad news is good news effect.

That is why the U.S. 10-year treasury yield cratered from 3.5% to 2.8% which reflects the future expectation of a pulled-forward global recession.

This would trigger a fresh interest rate lowering cycle by global central banks.

Lowering rates is good for Nasdaq stocks and tech stocks will be a big beneficiary of lowered rates as they have overshot to the downside on this rate rise cycle.  

That doesn’t mean it’s all rosy in the land of the Nasdaq, hardly so.

We are still in the fog of war and amid improving technical data like lower oil prices, worsening economic relations between the large nuclear-equipped countries are not only moving the world towards a soft technological decoupling but a hard fracturing of general relations.

My first thought was will China finally strike back against the United States in the form of destroying Tesla’s (TSLA) Gigafactory in Shanghai or blacklist Apple (AAPL) iPhones in China.

These two events would be the point of no return for the two countries’ economic cooperation and anything beyond that, relations could spiral out of control rapidly and even be the impetus for a Taiwan takeover.

Clearly, Silicon Valley does much better when the world is getting along, and everyone is paying for their stuff.

That can’t happen as smoothly with the world rapidly balkanizing which is a big reason for massive selloffs in Netflix whose international audience has soured.

On the production side of things, Chinese-produced stuff won’t be able to get sold back to Americans using Guangdong factory production as semiconductor chips and equipment have become the focal point of national security efforts.

The US has placed export controls against Chinese technology firms from purchasing chips and equipment.

Now Biden is blackmailing the Netherlands to ban one of its top chipmakers from selling semiconductor equipment to Chinese companies.

The Biden administration is pushing hard for Dutch chip equipment maker ASML Holding NV (ASML) to halt selling some of its older deep ultraviolet lithography, or DUV, systems.

Even though these machines are one generation behind cutting-edge, they offer high-tech chips for automobiles and consumer electronics.

Washington has also pressured Japan to stop shipping semiconductor machines to China.

Since the Trump tariffs, China has been the biggest buyer of chipmaking gear for the last two years.

On the European front, regulation is hitting home hard as the U.K. has initiated investigations on Amazon’s selling practice by in-house brands and is looking into Microsoft’s anti-competitive acquisition of Activision.

If American tech companies have nowhere to produce, nobody to acquire for instant growth, and nobody to sell to then it becomes a massive issue for shareholders.

Even though the equity mojo boost of good news is bad news is a nice reprieve, a global recession where many companies fire staff and can’t sell their product because lack of parts is worse.

Therefore, we are still issuing a sell the rallies in tech type of recommendation to our readers while acknowledging there has been a small wave of dip buyers entering back into the game.

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-07-06 16:02:362022-07-06 16:30:07Good News Is Bad News
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

September 10, 2021

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
September 10, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(YOUR GUIDE TO THE METAVERSE)
(RBLX), (FB), (MSFT), (APPL), (AMZN), (EPIC GAMES)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-09-10 13:04:322021-09-10 16:09:31September 10, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Your Guide to the Metaverse

Tech Letter

People have no idea what the Metaverse is, so I will be the one to fill you in.

What is the Metaverse? Simply put, the Metaverse is the next mega-phase of the internet, a merging of the physical world with XR, AR, and VR that is just beginning to revolutionize.

It is an extensive online world transcending individual tech platforms, where people exist in immersive, shared virtual spaces. Through avatars, people would be able to try on items available in stores or attend concerts with friends, just as they would offline.

On a recent earnings call, Facebook (FB) CEO Mark Zuckerberg detailed the Metaverse: “It's a virtual environment where you can be present with people in digital spaces,” he said. “You can kind of think about this as an embodied internet that you're inside of rather than just looking at. We believe that this is going to be the successor to the mobile internet.”

Does the Metaverse exist anywhere yet? The answer is yes, early versions of it. The closest approximations of it right now include the likes of digital game platforms Roblox (RBLX) and Fortnite.

The internet era was defined by the computer being in the living room and the connection to the internet being occasional.

The shift to mobile computing is defined by moving the computer from the living room to the office and into your pocket and changing access to the internet from occasional to continuous and persistent.

Metaverse is the idea of computing everywhere, ubiquitous, ambient. In a simplified sense, think about the Metaverse as a series of interconnected and persistent simulations.

One could almost describe it as the next internet, web 3.0.

And crypto, or some sort of crypto offspring or cousin of it, will be the coin of this new realm which is why crypto in its form now is so important.  

Consider the internet and mobile internet. Over time it disrupted nearly every industry in nearly every geography.

It changed how consumers patronized, business models, products, behaviors. This produces an extraordinary economic opportunity overall.

The same will happen via the Metaverse.

In the future, instead of just doing calls over a phone call, you’ll be able to sit as a hologram on a couch, or I’ll be able to sit as a hologram on your couch, and it’ll actually feel like we’re in the same place even though it is remote.

Sharing space is what humans perceive as closer to something real.

There’s spatial audio in which distance can change the meaning of a sentence.

This has been in the works for years, ever since Zuckerberg bought Oculus in 2014 and Oculus is effectively the gateway to the Metaverse that Zuckerberg wants to spawn.

Other power Silicon Valley elite are also moving forward into the Metaverse for their own objectives. Microsoft (MSFT) CEO Satya Nadella commented at his earnings call, “As the digital and physical worlds converge, we are leading in a new layer of the infrastructure stack, the enterprise Metaverse."

Many Metaverse believers say the economy of the Metaverse will be larger than that of the physical world.

Personally, I believe it will be 100X larger than the physical world’s economies and much more dynamic.

One of the biggest winners of this Metaverse race will be Epic Games —owner of Fortnite —founded by CEO Tim Sweeney.

Epic released "Fortnite" just five years ago. The game now has 350 million registered players, with anywhere from six to 12 million people playing at any given time.

The Metaverse is a great example of a technology that will likely bring huge benefits to people but there will be unintended, unanticipated costs and harms.

Right now, the Metaverse operates with zero regulations, while its previous iteration, the internet, operates with the least number of regulations out of any major industry in 2021.

The bottom line is that every power Silicon Valley has skin in the game such as Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Netflix after Epic Games, and they will receive another supercharger to accelerating revenue growth.

The revenue growth in the Metaverse for these companies will make what they earn in the physical world look like a pittance.

We are driving to that point in tech development through hell or high water, and like how every company became a tech company to survive, when the Metaverse and an operable iteration of it become good enough for people to transact smoothly, every company will have to become a Metaverse company or die.

This is the future and it’s creeping closer by the day.

metaverse

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/metaverse.png 342 862 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-09-10 13:02:182021-09-16 00:31:59Your Guide to the Metaverse
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

May 3, 2021

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
May 3, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(BUY FACEBOOK ON THE DIP?)
(FB), (APPL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-05-03 14:04:232021-05-04 21:45:18May 3, 2021
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