Many ascribe Monday’s 312 point plunge in the Dow Average to an informational webinar posted by legendary corporate raider and hedge fund manager, Carl Icahn. I have known Carl for 30 years, and I once owned and apartment in his building on the Upper East Side of Manhattan, near Sutton Place (which I later sold for a quick double). Even then, he was opinionated, … [Read more...]
Cashing in on Freeport McMoRan
I am writing this to you from Terminal 2 at San Francisco Airport, awaiting my Virgin America flight to Chicago. My conclusion so far is that the beef curry rice at the Japanese fast food joint Wakaba isn’t what it used to be. The meat is paper thin and full of fat and gristle. I guess everyone is trying to cut costs these days. I saw a tall blond hustle by in a pilot’s … [Read more...]
How the Markets Will Play Out This Quarter
I think I have figured out the course of the global financial markets over the next few months. We are currently transitioning from an economic data flow from Q1 that was very weak, to the second quarter, which will almost certainly deliver us a robust set of numbers. This is on the heels of a white hot Q1, 2014. Hot, cold, hot; this is a trader’s dream come true, as it gives … [Read more...]
2015 Annual Asset Class Review
I am once again writing this report from a first class sleeping cabin on Amtrak’s California Zephyr. By day, I have two comfortable seats facing each other next to a broad window. At night, they fold into bunk beds, a single and a double. There is a shower, but only Houdini could get in and out of it. We are now pulling away from Chicago’s Union Station, leaving its hurried … [Read more...]
Here is Your Big New Year Trade
When Dr. Copper (CU), the only commodity with a PhD in economics, suddenly collapses from a heart attack, risk takers everywhere have to sit up and take notice. Since the 2011 top, the red metal has collapsed a shocking 40%. It has given back a nausea inducing 10% just in the last two weeks. Will copper take down the rest of the financial markets with it? Is the bull case for … [Read more...]
Is the Turnaround at Hand, and Ten Stocks to Buy at the Bottom?
War threatens in the Ukraine. Iraq is blowing up. Rebels are turning our own, highly advanced weapons against us. Israel invades Gaza. Ebola virus has hit the US. Oh, and two hurricanes are hitting Hawaii for the first time in 22 years. Should I panic and sell everything I own? Is it time to stockpile canned food, water and ammo? Is the world about to end? I think not. In … [Read more...]
Why Copper is Crashing
When Dr. Copper (CU), the only commodity with a PhD in economics, suddenly collapses from a heart attack, risk takers everywhere have to sit up and take notice. Since the 2011 top, the red metal has collapsed a shocking 38%. It has given back 10% just in the last two weeks. Will copper take down the rest of the financial markets with it? I don’t think so. So called … [Read more...]
Update on Freeport McMoRan (FCX)
Those who bought my Trade Alert on the Freeport McMoRan (FCX) October $28-$30 bull call spread at $1.68 or best two days ago will be thrilled to see the charts below. They were prepared by my friends at Stockcharts.com, who offer a very reasonable subscription technical analysis product (click here for their site http://stockcharts.com ). After testing $26 three times over … [Read more...]
Picking Up Freeport McMoRan
It is clear from the improving economic data from China that the hard landing scenario is off the table. This is great news for the producers of everything that the Middle Kingdom buys in bulk, especially copper. If you like copper, you’ve got to love Freeport McMoRan, one of the world’s largest producers for the red metal. On top of these rapidly improving fundamentals, the … [Read more...]
The Great Copper Crash of 2013
When Dr. Copper (CU), the only commodity with a PhD in economics, suddenly collapses from a heart attack, risk takers everywhere have to sit up and take notice. Since the 2011 top, the red metal has collapsed a shocking 35%. So called because of its uncanny ability to predict the future of the global economy, copper is warning of dire things to come. The price drop suggests … [Read more...]
End of the Commodity Supercycle, or Not?
When I toured Australia a couple of years ago, I couldn’t help but notice a surprising number of fresh faced young people driving luxury Ferraris, Lamborghinis, and Porsches. I remarked to my Aussie friend that there must be a lot of indulgent parents in The Lucky Country these days. “It’s not the parents who are buying these cars,” he remarked, “It’s the kids.” He went on … [Read more...]
Strong Dollar Spells Death for Commodities
Panic is on deck, to use the baseball terminology that my foreign readers are often attempting to decipher. That is the only conclusion one can reach after getting gob smacked by the price action this morning. Copper got spanked for eight cents, oil burned $2, gold shed another $26, and silver puked 70 cents. The tantrum like stock behavior in producing and equipment … [Read more...]
Why Dr. Copper is Looking Ill
Traders like to refer to the red metal as Dr. Copper because it is the only one that has a PhD in economics. This year it has been proving its credentials as a great predictor of future economic activity once again. Copper has been leading the downside charge for all risk assets since it peaked on February 10. After looking at the latest trade data for the red metal, it is … [Read more...]