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Tag Archive for: ($INDU)

april@madhedgefundtrader.com

October 17, 2025

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 17, 2025
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(OCTOBER 15 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(GLD), (SPX), (SLV), ($INDU), (GS), (PLTR), (UUP),
(FSLR), (ENPH), (NVDA), (AMD), (NFLX), (BTC)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-10-17 09:04:542025-10-17 10:11:29October 17, 2025
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

October 13, 2025

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 13, 2025
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or A FRIDAY AFTERNOON SURPRISE)
($INDU), (SPY), (GLD), (TLT), (USO), ($VIX),
(GS), (MSTR), (TSLA), (NFLX), (IBKR)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-10-13 09:04:042025-10-13 11:26:37October 13, 2025
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

September 29, 2025

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
September 29, 2025
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or THE GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN IS HERE)
(SPY), ($INDU), (IWM), (V), (MA), (AXP), (UNG),
(CCJ) (XOM), (OXY) (DUK) (TAN), (FSLR)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-09-29 09:04:152025-09-29 11:11:07September 29, 2025
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

April 23, 2025

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
April 23, 2025
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(WHERE’S THIS MARKET BOTTOM?),
(SPX), (INDU), (TLT),
(THE ONE SAFE PLACE IN REAL ESTATE)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-04-23 09:06:222025-04-23 10:08:59April 23, 2025
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Where’s This Market Bottom?

Diary, Homepage Posts, Newsletter

After Monday’s 1,200-point swoon, the S&P 500 (SPY) has fallen 20.88% from its February peak. And we may still have a “Sell in May” ahead of us.

This was one of the most overbought stock markets in my career. I have to think back to the March 2000 Dotcom Top and the Tokyo bubble in 1989 to recall similar levels of ebullience. It seems that everyone in the world is now dumping US bonds and dollars as well.

With a price/earnings multiple of 20, we are still near the top of a long-time historic range of 9-22. High US interest rates make that level appear even more expensive. The “Buy the Dip” crowd has become an extinct species.

So, how much lower do we have to go? I just completed a conference call with some major hedge fund traders, and thought I‘d throw out my numbers and the logic behind them. The following is an itinerary of what your summer trading might look like, expressed in (SPX) terms:

-20.88% - 4,850 – The April 9 low before a tweet triggered a monster 500-point rally.  The market is begging for a retest of this level.

-29.52% - 4,320 is an earnings multiple of 18X times unchanged earnings for the (SPX) of $240 a share.

-37.35% - 3,840 is an earnings multiple of 16X times an unchanged earnings for the (SPX) of $240 a share.

-39.96% - 3,680 is an earnings multiple of 16X times a lower earnings for the (SPX) of $230 a share.

-42.57% - 3,520 is an earnings multiple of 13X times an unchanged earnings for the (SPX) of a recessionary $220 a share.

-45.18% - 3,360 is an earnings multiple of 16X times an unchanged earnings for the (SPX) of $210 a share, which assumes the trade war with China extends into 2026.

Big swings in the market also often start and finish around an options expiration, which takes place on the third Friday of each month.

To confuse you even further, contemplate the concept that I refer to as the “Lead Contract.” There is always a lead contract around, one on which all traders maintain a laser-like focus, which leads every other financial product out there. It says “Jump,” and we ask “How High?” It is also always changing.

Right now, the bond market futures are the lead contract. When bonds rise and interest rates fall, it is a positive for equities. When bonds fall and rates rise, the “Sell America” trade is back on, leading to the dumping of all US assets. If you want to get a preview of each day’s US trading, stay up the night before and watch the action in the US bond futures in Singapore, as I often do.



Looking for More Market Insights

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Girl-with-Chopsticks.jpg 406 273 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-04-23 09:04:202025-04-23 10:08:38Where’s This Market Bottom?
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

October 2, 2024

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 2, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(FRIDAY OCTOBER 25 SALT LAKE CITY UTAH STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(TRADING DEVOID OF THE THOUGHT PROCESS),
(SPY), (INDU), (TLT), (USO)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-10-02 09:06:302024-10-02 11:45:07October 2, 2024
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trading Devoid of the Thought Process

Diary, Newsletter

It seems that all anyone has to do is blow their nose these days, and high-frequency trading will amplify the movement, a multiple of what we would have seen in past years. It's like the butterfly flapping its wings in the Amazon.

The exit of institutional money to trading in in-house dark pools, the concentration of trading into single-sector exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and the departure of the traditional individual investor are all exaggerating these moves. It doesn’t help that stock markets are sitting just short of all-time highs.

You could run off and trade something else besides stocks. That’s easier said than done, as virtually all other asset classes have become equally untradeable.

Bonds have gone crazy, rising to mathematically impossible levels. You’re still trying to catch a falling knife in commodities, as the recent action in oil proved, but the Chinese may have just reversed that. Precious metals are at all-time highs. Foreign currencies have gone comatose, with the US dollar rolling over like the Bismarck.

What’s a poor trader to do? Take up the action in collectible Beanie Babies? Rare French postage stamps? Rare vintage Madeira’s?

There are only two ways to deal with a market like this. Turn off the TV, cancel your newswire feeds, quit reading research, and just look at your screens.

Buy the low numbers and sell the high ones.

It is no more complicated than that. Don’t confuse matters with the thought process. The markets are now so illogical you will only muddy the waters.

The other method is to become boring. Just find the cheapest, low-fee index fund you can find, like one of Vanguard’s, buy it, and stuff it under your mattress. I’m pretty confident that it will be up 10% by the end of the year. 90-day T-bills at 4.75% is not a bad second.

That means you will probably beat most hedge managers out there, as you would have done for the past seven consecutive years. Try to earn more than 10% in these choppy markets, and you could end up losing 10% or 100%.

As for me, I am going to stick with trading. At least I’ll be there when it turns easy again, which has to be soon, and I’ll make a hell of a lot more than 10%.

And was never very good at the “boring” thing.

 

 

 

 

Money Under Mattress

My New Investment Strategy

 

Madeira Wine

One of My Rare Madeira's

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Money-Under-Mattress-e1423145916871.jpg 289 400 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2024-10-02 09:02:112024-10-02 11:44:31Trading Devoid of the Thought Process
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

September 13, 2024

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
September 13, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(The Mad SEPTEMBER traders & Investors Summit is ON!)
(SEPTEMBER 13 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(USO), (UUP), (FXA), (FXE), (FXC), (FXB), (DJT), ($INDU), (JPM), (BRK), (TSLA), (NVDA), (IBM), (CCJ), (BRK/B)

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-09-13 09:06:212024-09-13 10:31:04September 13, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

September 11 Biweekly Strategy Webinar Q&A

Diary, Newsletter

Below please find subscribers’ Q&A for the September 11 Mad Hedge Fund Trader Global Strategy Webinar, broadcast from Lake Tahoe Nevada.

Q: Will the Fed cut by 50 basis points at their next meeting?

A: The probability of that happening actually dropped by about half with the warm CPI report this morning with core CPI at 0.3%. That may have pushed the Fed from a 50% basis point rate cut back down to only 25%. I think if we only get 25%, the market will sell off. So that’s Wednesday next week. Mark that on your calendars—the market may well be on hold until then.

Q: Is $50/barrel oil (USO) coming by the end of this year?

A: No, but I think $60 is in the works. And that may be the bottom of this cycle because after that we expect an economic recovery, greater demand for oil, and rising prices in 2025. Until then, overproduction both in the US and in the Middle East is knocking prices down.

Q: Will the US dollar (UUP) continue its terrible performance through the end of the year?

A: Yes, and in fact, it may be for the next 10 years that the US dollar is weak—certainly 5—so any rally or dips you get in the currencies (FXA), (FXE), (FXC), and (FXB) I’d be buying with both hands.

Q: Where are you hiding at the moment?

A: 90-day T-bills, which are yielding 4.97%. You can buy and sell them any time you want, and the interest is only payable when you sell them.

Q: Is September 18th the selloff?

A: It depends on how much we do before then. Obviously, we’re making good progress today with the Dow ($INDU) down 700 points, so we shall see. However, the market is flip-flopping every other day, making it untradable—you can’t get any position and hold on to it long enough to make money, so it’s better just to stay out. There’s no law that says you have to be in the market every day of the year, and this is a day not to be in the market for sure.

Q: How will the presidential debate reaction affect the market?

A: There’s only one stock you have to follow for that and that’s the (DJT) SPAC, and that’s Trump’s own personal ETF, and it is down 13% today to a new all-time low. I believe that’s well below its IPO price, so anyone who’s touched that stock is losing money unless they got out at the top. That is a good signal.

Q: JP Morgan (JPM) stock had a steep pullback to $200/share—is it a buy here?

A: No, but we’re getting close. If we can get (JPM) close to its 200-day moving average at $188 on high volatility, that would be a fantastic buy, because (JPM) will benefit enormously from falling interest rates, and it is the world's quality banking play.

Q: Is it too soon on Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) and Tesla (TSLA)?

A: Yes on both. It’s too soon for anything right now. I wouldn’t touch anything before the interest rate cut unless you have a really special situation, and there are some out there.

Q: Do you think Nvidia (NVDA) could test $90 again?

A: It could very easily; it got within $10 of that last week. So, it just depends on how bad the news is and how scared people get in September.

Q: Is the end of carry trade affecting the market?

A: No, we had a big deleveraging there. Although people are going back in again now, it’s not enough to hurt the market.

Q: I heard Putin is threatening over raw materials. What do we get from Russia, and what stocks or ETFs would be impacted?

A: We get nothing from Russia anymore. We used to get a lot of commodities and oil from them, and that has ceased. Russia has essentially exited the global economy because of the sanctions and the war in Ukraine, so they can’t really hurt anyone at this point.

Q: What about Russia doing an end-run around with direct trade? BRICS block is going to make the dollar even more worthless in the future.

A:  I don’t buy that at all. I’ve been covering sanctions for 50 years; they always work, but they always take a long time. You could always do black market trade through the back door, but the volumes are way down, and the profits are much less because people only buy sanctioned goods at big discounts. The oil that China is buying from Russia is something like a 30% discount to the market. They execute a high cost of doing business, and nobody wants to be in sanctions if they can possibly do avoid. That said, when the war ends, the sanctions may end. That could be some time next year when Russia completely runs out of tanks and airplanes.

Q: Should I buy Nvidia (NVDA) call options now?

A: It's not just a matter of Nvidia. It's what the general market is doing, and tech is doing. And tech is not doing that well—even on the up days. So I would hold off a bit on Nvidia.

Q: Why is Warren Buffet (BRK/B) unloading so much of his equity portfolio?

A: He thinks the market is expensive, and he has thought it has been expensive for years and he's been unloading stocks for years. He has something like $250 billion in cash now so he can buy whole companies in the next recession. Whether he'll live long enough to see that recession is another question, but his replacement staff is already at work and running the fund, so Berkshire will continue running on autopilot even after he’s gone.

Q: Is IBM an AI play?

A: (IBM) wants to think that it’s an AI play. They haven’t disclosed enough to the public to make the stock a real AI investment, so I would say it probably is, but we don’t know enough at this point, and there are probably too many other candidates to buy in the meantime.

Q: How do I invest in green energy stocks, and do you have any names for me?

A: Well here’s one right here and that’s the Canadian uranium producer Cameco (CCJ). There is a nuclear renaissance going on. China just announced an increase in their plants under construction from 100 to 115. You have the new modular technology ready to take off in the US, and it uses uranium alloys, or uranium aggregates, so it’s impossible for a plant to go supercritical. You also have other countries reactivating nuclear plants that have been closed, and California even delayed its Diablo Canyon shutdown by 5 years. So Nuclear is back in play, and we have an absolute bottom in the stock here and it just dropped 37%, in case you needed any more temptation. So this would be a very attractive alternative energy play for the long term right here.

To watch a replay of this webinar with all the charts, bells, whistles, and classic rock music, just log in to www.madhedgefundtrader.com, go to MY ACCOUNT, select your subscription (GLOBAL TRADING DISPATCH, TECHNOLOGY LETTER, or Jacquie's Post), then click on WEBINARS, and all the webinars from the last 12 years are there in all their glory.

Good Luck and Good Trading,

John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader

 

 

 

 

1942 Grumman Wildcat on Guadalcanal

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/John-thomas-guadalcanal.png 496 646 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-09-13 09:02:092024-09-13 10:30:41September 11 Biweekly Strategy Webinar Q&A
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

August 26, 2024

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
August 26, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD or BEWARE THE NEXT BLACK SWAN) plus (REVISITING UKRAINE),
(SPY), ($INDU), ($COMPQ), (FXI), (COPX), (NVDA), (GM), (GOOG), (FCX), (UUP), (FXE), (FXB), (FXC), (FXA)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-08-26 09:04:002024-08-26 11:33:13August 26, 2024
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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