Global Market Comments
January 26, 2026
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or TACO RIDES AGAIN!),
(SPY), ($INDU), (GLD), (B), (NEM), (GDX), (GS), (TLT), (KO), (CSCO), (MDLZ), (TAN), (BA), (MOS), (IPI), (MU)
Tag Archive for: ($INDU)
Global Market Comments
November 24, 2025
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or THE TAIL WAGGING THE DOG)
($INDU), (SPY), ($VIX), (GOOGL), (GS), (MS), (RKT),(NFLX), (AMZN), (GOOGL), (APPL), (NFLX), (GS), (ZM), (MS), (BLK)
Global Market Comments
October 17, 2025
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(OCTOBER 15 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(GLD), (SPX), (SLV), ($INDU), (GS), (PLTR), (UUP),
(FSLR), (ENPH), (NVDA), (AMD), (NFLX), (BTC)
Global Market Comments
October 13, 2025
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or A FRIDAY AFTERNOON SURPRISE)
($INDU), (SPY), (GLD), (TLT), (USO), ($VIX),
(GS), (MSTR), (TSLA), (NFLX), (IBKR)
Global Market Comments
September 29, 2025
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or THE GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN IS HERE)
(SPY), ($INDU), (IWM), (V), (MA), (AXP), (UNG),
(CCJ) (XOM), (OXY) (DUK) (TAN), (FSLR) 
Global Market Comments
April 23, 2025
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHERE’S THIS MARKET BOTTOM?),
(SPX), (INDU), (TLT),
(THE ONE SAFE PLACE IN REAL ESTATE)
After Monday’s 1,200-point swoon, the S&P 500 (SPY) has fallen 20.88% from its February peak. And we may still have a “Sell in May” ahead of us.
This was one of the most overbought stock markets in my career. I have to think back to the March 2000 Dotcom Top and the Tokyo bubble in 1989 to recall similar levels of ebullience. It seems that everyone in the world is now dumping US bonds and dollars as well.
With a price/earnings multiple of 20, we are still near the top of a long-time historic range of 9-22. High US interest rates make that level appear even more expensive. The “Buy the Dip” crowd has become an extinct species.
So, how much lower do we have to go? I just completed a conference call with some major hedge fund traders, and thought I‘d throw out my numbers and the logic behind them. The following is an itinerary of what your summer trading might look like, expressed in (SPX) terms:
-20.88% - 4,850 – The April 9 low before a tweet triggered a monster 500-point rally. The market is begging for a retest of this level.
-29.52% - 4,320 is an earnings multiple of 18X times unchanged earnings for the (SPX) of $240 a share.
-37.35% - 3,840 is an earnings multiple of 16X times an unchanged earnings for the (SPX) of $240 a share.
-39.96% - 3,680 is an earnings multiple of 16X times a lower earnings for the (SPX) of $230 a share.
-42.57% - 3,520 is an earnings multiple of 13X times an unchanged earnings for the (SPX) of a recessionary $220 a share.
-45.18% - 3,360 is an earnings multiple of 16X times an unchanged earnings for the (SPX) of $210 a share, which assumes the trade war with China extends into 2026.
Big swings in the market also often start and finish around an options expiration, which takes place on the third Friday of each month.
To confuse you even further, contemplate the concept that I refer to as the “Lead Contract.” There is always a lead contract around, one on which all traders maintain a laser-like focus, which leads every other financial product out there. It says “Jump,” and we ask “How High?” It is also always changing.
Right now, the bond market futures are the lead contract. When bonds rise and interest rates fall, it is a positive for equities. When bonds fall and rates rise, the “Sell America” trade is back on, leading to the dumping of all US assets. If you want to get a preview of each day’s US trading, stay up the night before and watch the action in the US bond futures in Singapore, as I often do.
Looking for More Market Insights
Global Market Comments
October 2, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(FRIDAY OCTOBER 25 SALT LAKE CITY UTAH STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(TRADING DEVOID OF THE THOUGHT PROCESS),
(SPY), (INDU), (TLT), (USO)
It seems that all anyone has to do is blow their nose these days, and high-frequency trading will amplify the movement, a multiple of what we would have seen in past years. It's like the butterfly flapping its wings in the Amazon.
The exit of institutional money to trading in in-house dark pools, the concentration of trading into single-sector exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and the departure of the traditional individual investor are all exaggerating these moves. It doesn’t help that stock markets are sitting just short of all-time highs.
You could run off and trade something else besides stocks. That’s easier said than done, as virtually all other asset classes have become equally untradeable.
Bonds have gone crazy, rising to mathematically impossible levels. You’re still trying to catch a falling knife in commodities, as the recent action in oil proved, but the Chinese may have just reversed that. Precious metals are at all-time highs. Foreign currencies have gone comatose, with the US dollar rolling over like the Bismarck.
What’s a poor trader to do? Take up the action in collectible Beanie Babies? Rare French postage stamps? Rare vintage Madeira’s?
There are only two ways to deal with a market like this. Turn off the TV, cancel your newswire feeds, quit reading research, and just look at your screens.
Buy the low numbers and sell the high ones.
It is no more complicated than that. Don’t confuse matters with the thought process. The markets are now so illogical you will only muddy the waters.
The other method is to become boring. Just find the cheapest, low-fee index fund you can find, like one of Vanguard’s, buy it, and stuff it under your mattress. I’m pretty confident that it will be up 10% by the end of the year. 90-day T-bills at 4.75% is not a bad second.
That means you will probably beat most hedge managers out there, as you would have done for the past seven consecutive years. Try to earn more than 10% in these choppy markets, and you could end up losing 10% or 100%.
As for me, I am going to stick with trading. At least I’ll be there when it turns easy again, which has to be soon, and I’ll make a hell of a lot more than 10%.
And was never very good at the “boring” thing.
My New Investment Strategy
One of My Rare Madeira's
Global Market Comments
September 13, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(The Mad SEPTEMBER traders & Investors Summit is ON!)
(SEPTEMBER 13 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(USO), (UUP), (FXA), (FXE), (FXC), (FXB), (DJT), ($INDU), (JPM), (BRK), (TSLA), (NVDA), (IBM), (CCJ), (BRK/B)
