Global Market Comments
August 23, 2019
(AUGUST 21 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(FXB), (NVDA), (MU), (LRCX), (AMD),
(WFC), (JPM), (BIDU), (GE), (TLT), (BA)
Global Market Comments
August 23, 2019
(AUGUST 21 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(FXB), (NVDA), (MU), (LRCX), (AMD),
(WFC), (JPM), (BIDU), (GE), (TLT), (BA)
Global Market Comments
July 30, 2019
(THE IDIOT’S GUIDE TO INVESTING),
(TSLA), (BYND), (JPM)
(THE SECRET FED PLAN TO BUY GOLD),
(GLD), (GDX), (PALL), (PPLT),
My usual method of coping with nine hours of jet lag from Zermatt, Switzerland to San Francisco is to sit back, watch some golden oldies on the screen, and contemplate the state of the financial markets.
I just finished watching Von Ryan’s Express (1965), and Frank Sinatra got shot in the back. It was a timely movie for me to revisit because I rode the exact Italian Alpine rail lines used in the film only two days ago and recognized some of the precise scenery and rail junctions used by the filmmakers.
What would you do if I recommended an investment strategy that would cause your accountant to disown you, your inheritance-anticipating children to sue you, and your wife to file for divorce?
Chances are you would designate all my future mailings as SPAM, unfriend me on Facebook, and tear my card out of your Rolodex.
Well, here it is anyway. I’ll call it my “Ignore All Risk” portfolio. It’s really quite simple. This is all you have to do:
1) Buy stocks that have already gone up the most, boast the highest year-to-date performance, and have momentum overwhelmingly on their side. Only do what everyone else is doing. Go for the easy trade.
2) Buy stocks with the highest price earnings multiples. I’m talking mid-to-high double digits.
3) Lean towards stocks with the highest short interest, such as Tesla (TSLA) at 30% and Beyond Meat (BYND) at 20%.
4) Avoid all cryptocurrency bets, like Bitcoin. In fact, avoid all financials, period.
5) Ignore all valuations and fundamentals. Don’t waste a minute reading a single page of research, especially from an old-line legacy broker. Seeking Alpha, where none of the information is independently verified, is a far better source of information than JP Morgan (JPM).
6) Big institutions should allocate all of their assets only to their youngest traders and portfolio managers. Old farts, or anyone with any memory or experience whatsoever, should be completely ignored. A person who’s never seen a stock go down is now your best friend.
7) Oh, and there is one more thing. Go hugely overweight bonds over equities in the face of unprecedented and massive government borrowing at all-time low-interest rates.
Any professional manager pursuing an approach like this would surely get fired, lose all of their securities registrations and licenses, and get banned from the industry for life.
But there is one big offset to these career-ending consequences. They would also be the top-performing money manager of the year, beating the pants off of all competitors. Every investment they made this year worked.
They would be regarded as a trading genius on par with Paul Tudor Jones and Appaloosa’s David Tepper. If they invested their own money using this strategy, they would be so filthy rich they wouldn’t care what happened to themselves.
We are now in an environment where EVERY trade is crowded, the they in equities, fixed income, or foreign exchange. The metaphors coming to mind are legion. There are too many passengers on one side of the canoe. The lemmings are mindlessly stampeding towards a giant cliff. I could go on.
Of course, incredible excess liquidity is to blame. That is the only time both stocks AND bonds go up at the same time. The world’s central banks have been flooding the globe with cash for over a decade now. The end result has been to undervalue all assets classes, be they paper or hard. Cash is trash, especially in Japan and Europe where you have to PAY banks to take your money.
The fact is that shares with the fastest price appreciation over the past 12 months are trading at valuations that are almost 25% higher than normal.
I have traded and invested through all of this before; the Nifty Fifty of the early 1970s, the Great Japan Bubble of the 1980s, the Dotcom Bubble of the 1990s, and of course the 2007 bubble top. And there is one thing all of these market apexes have in common. They inflated a lot longer than anyone expected, sometime FOR YEARS!
You could be conservative, go into 100% cash, and just stay on the sidelines until mass group thinks, hysteria, and insanity leave the market. But that could be a very long time.
And after more than a half century in this business, there is one thing I know for sure. Traders who don’t trade, investors who don’t invest, and newsletters that don’t recommend all have one thing in common. THEY GET FIRED. Just because investing gets hard is no reason to quit the market.
The Japanese have a great expression for this: “When the fool is dancing, the greater fool is watching.” So, I’m going to start dancing away. What will it be? The cha cha, the limbo, or the Watusi?
Hmmmm. Let me see. Let me Google what everyone else is doing. While I’m at it, I think I’ll try to score some ticket to the 2020 Tokyo Olympic opening ceremony.
Global Market Comments
July 29, 2019
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, OR THE BAD OMENS ARE THERE),
(INTC), (GOOGL), (AMZN), (JPM), (FXB),
(PLAYING THE SHORT SIDE WITH VERTICAL BEAR PUT SPREADS), (TLT)
The Omens are there.
I am normally a pretty positive guy.
But I was having a beer at Schwarzee at the base of the Matterhorn the other day, just having completed the climb up to the Hornli Hut at 10,758 feet. I carefully watched with my binoculars three helicopters circle the summit of the mountain, around the Solvay Hut.
These were not sightseeing tours. The pilots were taking great risks to retrieve bodies.
I learned at the Bergfuhrerverein Zermatt the next day that one of their men was taking up an American client to the summit. The man reached for a handhold and the rock broke loose, taking both men to their deaths. The Mountain Guide Service of Zermatt is a lot like the US Marine Corps. They always retrieve their dead.
It is an accident that could have happened to anyone. I have been over that route many times. If there was ever an omen of trouble to come, this was it.
The markets are sending out a few foreboding warnings of their own. Friday’s Q2 GDP report came in at a better than expected 2.1%, versus 3.1% in Q1.
Yet the Dow Average was up only a meager 51.47 points when it should have gained 500. It is an old market nostrum that if markets can’t rally on good news, you get the hell out of Dodge. Zermatt too.
It is the slowest US growth in two years. The trade war gets the blame, with falling exports offsetting healthy consumer spending. With the $1.5 trillion tax cut now spent, nothing is left but the debt. 2020 recession fears are running rampant, so paying all-time highs for stock prices is not a great idea.
You might be celebrating last week’s budget deal which heads off a September government shutdown. But it boosts the national debt from $22 to $24 trillion, or $72,000 per American. As with everything else with this administration, a short-term gain is achieved at a very high long-term cost.
Boris Johnson, the pro-Brexit activist, was named UK prime minister. It virtually guarantees a recession there and will act as an additional drag on the US economy. Global businesses will accelerate their departure from London to Paris and Berlin.
The end result may be a disunited kingdom, with Scotland declaring independence in order to stay in the EC, and Northern Ireland splitting off to create a united emerald island. The stock market there will crater and the pound (FXB) will go to parity against the greenback.
The European economy is already in a downward spiral, with German economic data flat on its back. GDP growth has shrunk from 2.0% to 0.7%. It seems we are not buying enough Mercedes, BMWs, and Volkswagens.
Yields on ten-year German bunds hit close to an all-time low at -0.39%. The Euro (FXE) is looking at a breakdown through parity. The country’s largest financial institution, Deutsche Bank, is about to go under. No one here wants to touch equities there. It’s all about finding more bonds.
Soaring Chip Stocks took NASDAQ to new high. I have to admit I missed this one, not expecting a recovery until the China trade war ended. Chip prices are still falling, and volume is shrinking. We still love (AMD), (MU), and (NVDA) long term as obviously do current buyers.
Existing Home Sales fell off a cliff, down 1.7% in June to a seasonally adjusted 5.27 million units. Median Home Prices jumped 4.7% to $287,400. A shortage of entry-level units at decent prices get the blame. Ultra-low interest rates are having no impact.
JP Morgan (JPM) expects stocks to dive in Q3, driven by earnings downgrades for 2020. Who am I to argue with Jamie Diamond? Don’t lose what you made in H1 chasing rich stocks in H2. Everyone I know is bailing on the market and I am 100% cash going into this week’s Fed meeting up 18.33% year-to-date. I made 3.06% in July in only two weeks.
Alphabet (GOOGL) beat big time, sending the shares up 8% in aftermarket trading. Q2 revenues soared 19% YOY to an eye-popping $39.7 billion. It’s the biggest gain in the stock in four years, to $1,226. The laggard FANG finally catches up. The weak first quarter is now long forgotten.
Amazon (AMZN) delivered a rare miss, as heavy investment spending on more market share offset sales growth, taking the shares down 1%. Amazon Prime membership now tops 100 million. Q3 is also looking weak.
Intel (INTC) surged on chip stockpiling, taking the stock up 5% to $54.70. Customers in China stockpiled chips ahead of a worsening trade war. Q3 forecasts are looking even better. Sale of its 5G modem chip business to Apple is seen as a huge positive.
I’ve finally headed home, after a peripatetic six-week, 18-flight trip around the world meeting clients. I bailed on the continent just in time to escape a record heatwave, with Paris hitting 105 degrees and London 101, where it was so hot that people were passing out on the non-air conditioned underground.
Avoid energy stocks. The outcry over global warming is about to get very loud. I’ll write a more detailed report on the trip when I get a break in the market.
My strategy of avoiding stocks and only investing in weak dollar plays like bonds (TLT), foreign exchange (FXA), and copper (FCX) performed well. After spending a few weeks out of the market, it’s amazing how clear things become. The clouds lift and the fog disperses.
My Global Trading Dispatch has hit a new high for the year at +18.33% and has earned a robust 3.09% so far in July. Nothing like coming out of the blocks for an uncertain H2 on a hot streak. I’m inclined to stay in cash until the Fed interest rate decision on Wednesday.
My ten-year average annualized profit bobbed up to +33.23%. With the markets now in the process of peaking out for the short term, I am now 100% in cash with Global Trading Dispatch and 100% cash in the Mad Hedge Tech Letter. If there is one thing supporting the market now, it is the fact that my Mad Hedge Market Timing Index has pulled back to a neutral 60. It’s a Goldilocks level, not too hot and not too cold.
The coming week will be a big one on the data front, with one big bombshell on Wednesday and the Payroll data on Friday.
On Monday, July 29, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index is out.
On Tuesday, July 30, we get June Pending Home Sales. A new Case Shiller S&P National Home Price Index is published. Look for YOY gains to shrink.
On Wednesday, July 31, at 8:30 AM, learn the ADP Private Employment Report. At 2:00 PM, the Fed interest rate decision is released and an extended press conference follows. If they don’t cut rates, there will be hell to pay.
On Thursday, August 1 at 8:30 AM, the Weekly Jobless Claims are printed.
On Friday, August 2 at 8:30 AM, we get the July Nonfarm Payroll Report. Recent numbers have been hot so that is likely to continue.
The Baker Hughes Rig Count follows at 2:00 PM.
As for me, by the time you read this, I will have walked the 25 minutes from my Alpine chalet down to the Zermatt Bahnhoff, ridden the picturesque cog railway down to Brig, and picked up an express train through the 12-mile long Simplon Tunnel to Milan, Italy.
Then I’ll spend the rest of the weekend winging my way home to San Francisco in cramped conditions on Air Italy. Yes, I had to get a few more cappuccinos and a good Italian dinner before coming home.
Now, on with the task of doubling my performance by yearend.
Good luck and good trading.
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
Global Market Comments
June 3, 2019
(MONDAY, JUNE 24 MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, OR WHAT A WASTE OF TIME!),
(SPY), ($INDU), (JPM), (MSFT), (AMZN), (TSLA)
Global Market Comments
March 22, 2019
(I HAVE AN OPENING FOR THE MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER CONCIERGE SERVICE),
(MARCH 20 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(BA), (FCX), (IWM), (JNJ), (FXB), (VIX), (JPM)
Below please find subscribers’ Q&A for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader March 20 Global Strategy Webinar with my guest and co-host Bill Davis of the Mad Day Trader. Keep those questions coming!
Q: What do you make of the Fed’s move today in interest rates?
A: By cutting short their balance sheet unwind early and ending quantitative tightening (QT) early, it amounts to two surprise interest rate cuts and is hugely “RISK ON”. In effect, they are injecting $2.7 trillion in new cash into the financial system. New highs in stocks beckon, and technology stocks will lead. This is a game changer. In a heartbeat, the world has moved from QT to QE, and we already know what that means for socks. They go up.
Q: Why buy Boeing shares (BA) ahead of a global recession?
A: It’s an 18-day bet that I’ve made in the options market. The US economic data is already indicating recession. The data will continue to worsen and that will continue until we go into a recession. But that’s not happening in 18 trading days. Also, we’re getting into Boeing down 20% from the top so our risk is minimal.
Q: Why are we in an open Russell 2000 (IWM) short position?
A: We now have three long positions— 40% on the long side with the Freeport McMoRan (FCX) double position. It’s always nice to have something on the other side to hedge sudden 145-point declines like we have today. Ideally, you want to be hedged at all times. But it’s hard to fund good companies to sell short in a bull market.
Q: Do you need some euphoria to get the Volatility Index (VIX) to the $30-$60 level?
A: No, you don’t need euphoria. You need fear and panic. The (VIX) is a good “fear index” in that it rises when markets are crashing and falling when markets are slowly rising. And for that reason, I’m not buying (VIX) right now. With a sideways to slowly rising market, we could see the $9 handle again before this move is over.
Q: What should be the exit on the Russell 2000 (IWM)?
A: One choice is taking 80% of the maximum profit when you hit it—that’s where the risk-reward tips against you if you keep the position. The other option is to be greedy and run it all the way into expiration, taking the full profit. It depends on your risk tolerance. Remember, we hit the 80% profit three times in March only to stop out of positions for a loss. The market just doesn’t seem to want to let you take the whole 100%.
Q: Why are all your expirations on April 18?
A: That’s when the monthly options expire; therefore, they have the most liquidity of any other option expiration. If you go with the weeklies before or after the monthlies, the liquidity declines dramatically, which can be very frustrating. Since I used to cover only the largest clients, we could only trade in monthlies because we needed the size.
Q: Will Johnson and Johnson (JNJ) survive all those talcum powder lawsuits?
A: They’ve been going on for 10 years—you’d think they’d know by now if they have asbestos in their talcum powder or not. I highly doubt this will get anywhere; they’ll probably win everything on appeal.
Q: What do you anticipate on Brexit?
A: I think eventually Brexit will fail; we’ll have a referendum which will get voted down, Britain will rejoin Europe, and the British pound (FXB) will go to $1.65 to the dollar where it was when Brexit hit three years ago, up from $1.29 today. It would be economic suicide for Britain to leave Europe, as they would have to compete against Europe, the US, and China alone, and they are slowly figuring that out. Demographic change alone over three years would guarantee that another referendum fails.
Q: My partner owns JP Morgan (JPM). Do you still say banks are not a good place to be?
A: Yes. Fintech is eating their lunch. If they couldn’t go up with interest rates moving up in the right direction, they certainly won’t be doing better now that interest rates are going down. Legacy banks are the new buggy whip industry.
Q: Why are commodities (FCX) increasing with a coming recession?
A: They are a hard asset and do better in inflation. Also, they’re stimulating their economy in China and we aren’t—commodities do better in that situation as China is the world’s largest buyer of commodities, as do all Chinese investments.
Q: Would you buy Biogen (BIIB) on the dip? Its down 30% today.
A: Canceling their advanced phase three trials for the Alzheimer drug Aducanumab is the worst-case scenario for a biotech company. Some $12 billion in prospective income is down the toilet and many years of R&D costs are a complete write-off. Avoid (BIIB) until the dust settles.
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
January 17, 2019
(WHY FINTECH IS EATING THE BANKS’ LUNCH),
(WFC), (JPM), (BAC), (C), (GS), (XLF), (PYPL), (SQ), (SPOT), (FINX), (INTU)
Going into January 2018, the big banks were highlighted as the pocket of the equity market that would most likely benefit from a rising rate environment which in turn boosts net interest margins (NIM).
Fast forward a year and take a look at the charts of Bank of America (BAC), Citibank (C), JP Morgan (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Morgan Stanley (GS), and each one of these mainstay banking institutions are down between 10%-20% from January 2018.
Take a look at the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) that backs up my point.
And that was after a recent 10% move up at the turn of the calendar year.
As much as it pains me to say it, bloated American banks have been completely caught off-guard by the mesmerizing phenomenon that is FinTech.
Banking is the latest cohort of analog business to get torpedoes by the brash tech start-up culture.
This is another fitting example of what will happen when you fail to evolve and overstep your business capabilities allowing technology to move into the gaps of weakness.
Let me give you one example.
I was most recently in Tokyo, Japan and was out of cash in a country that cash is king.
Japan has gone a long way to promoting a cashless society, but some things like a classic sushi dinner outside the old Tsukiji Fish Market can’t always be paid by credit card.
I found an ATM to pull out a few hundred dollars’ worth of Japanese yen.
It was already bad enough that the December 2018 sell-off meant a huge rush into the safe haven currency of the Japanese Yen.
The Yen moved from 114 per $1 down to 107 in one month.
That was the beginning of the bad news.
I whipped out my Wells Fargo debit card to withdraw enough cash and the fees accrued were nonsensical.
Not only was I charged a $5 fixed fee for using a non-Wells Fargo ATM, but Wells Fargo also charged me 3% of the total amount of the transaction amount.
Then I was hit on the other side with the Japanese ATM slamming another $5 fixed fee on top of that for a non-Japanese ATM withdrawal.
For just a small withdrawal of a few hundred dollars, I was hit with a $20 fee just to receive my money in paper form.
Paper money is on their way to being artifacts.
This type of price gouging of banking fees is the next bastion of tech disruption and that is what the market is telling us with traditional banks getting hammered while a strong economy and record profits can’t entice investors to pour money into these stocks.
FinTech will do what most revolutionary technology does, create an enhanced user experience for cheaper prices to the consumers and wipe the greedy traditional competition that was laughing all the way to the bank.
The best example that most people can relate to on a daily basis is the transportation industry that was turned on its head by ride-sharing mavericks Uber and Lyft.
But don’t ask yellow cab drivers how they think about these tech companies.
Highlighting the strong aversion to traditional banking business is Slack, the workplace chat app, who will follow in the footsteps of online music streaming platform Spotify (SPOT) by going public this year without doing a traditional IPO.
What does this mean for the traditional banks?
Slack will list directly and will set its own market for the sale of shares instead of leaning on an investment bank to stabilize the share price.
Recent tech IPOs such as Apptio, Nutanix and Twilio all paid 7% of the proceeds of their offering to the underwriting banks resulting in hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue.
Directly listings will cut that fee down to $10-20 million, a far cry from what was once status quo and a historical revenue generation machine for Wall Street.
This also layers nicely with my general theme of brokers of all types whether banking, transportation, or in the real estate market gradually be rooted out by technology.
In the world of pervasive technology and free information thanks to Google search, brokers have never before added less value than they do today.
Slowly but surely, this trend will systematically roam throughout the economic landscape culling new victims.
And then there are the actual FinTech companies who are vying to replace the traditional banks with leaner tech models saving money by avoiding costly brick and mortar branches that dot American suburbs.
PayPal (PYPL) has been around forever, but it is in the early stages of ramping up growth.
That doesn’t mean they have a weak balance sheet and their large embedded customer base approaching 250 million users has the network effect most smaller FinTech players lack.
PayPal is directly absorbing market share from the big banks as they have rolled out debit cards and other products that work well for millennials.
They are the owners of Venmo, the super-charged peer-to-peer payment app wildly popular amongst the youth.
Shares of PayPal’s have risen over 200% in the past 2 years and as you guessed, they don’t charge those ridiculous fees that banks do.
Wells Fargo and Bank of America charge a $12 monthly fee for balances that dip below $1,500 at the end of any business day.
Your account at PayPal can have a balance of 0 and there will never be any charge whatsoever.
Then there is the most innovative FinTech company Square who recently locked in a new lease at the Uptown Station in Downtown Oakland expanding their office space by 365,000 square feet for over 2,000 employees.
Square is led by one of the best tech CEOs in Silicon Valley Jack Dorsey.
Not only is the company madly innovative looking to pounce on any pocket of opportunity they observe, but they are extremely diversified in their offerings by selling point of sale (POS) systems and offering an online catering service called Caviar.
They also offer software for Square register for payroll services, large restaurants, analytics, location management, employee management, invoices, and Square capital that provides small loans to businesses and many more.
On average, each customer pays for 3.4 Square software services that are an incredible boon for their software-as-a-service (SaaS) portfolio.
An accelerating recurring revenue stream is the holy grail of software business models and companies who execute this model like Microsoft (MSFT) and Salesforce (CRM) are at the apex of their industry.
The problem with trading this stock is that it is mind-numbingly volatile. Shares sold off 40% in the December 2018 meltdown, but before that, the shares doubled twice in the past two years.
Therefore, I do not promote trading Square short-term unless you have a highly resistant stomach for elevated volatility.
This is a buy and hold stock for the long-term.
And that was only just two companies that are busy redrawing the demarcation lines.
There are others that are following in the same direction as PayPal and Square based in Europe.
French startup Shine is a company building an alternative to traditional bank accounts for freelancers working in France.
First, download the app.
The company will guide you through the simple process — you need to take a photo of your ID and fill out a form.
It almost feels like signing up to a social network and not an app that will store your money.
You can send and receive money from your Shine account just like in any banking app.
After registering, you receive a debit card.
You can temporarily lock the card or disable some features in the app, such as ATM withdrawals and online payments.
Since all these companies are software thoroughbreds, improvement to the platform is swift making the products more efficient and attractive.
There are other European mobile banks that are at the head of the innovation curve namely Revolut and N26.
Revolut, in just 6 months, raised its valuation from $350 million to $1.7 billion in a dazzling display of growth.
Revolut’s core product is a payment card that celebrates low fees when spending abroad—but even more, the company has swiftly added more and more additional financial services, from insurance to cryptocurrency trading and current accounts.
Remember my little anecdote of being price-gouged in Tokyo by Wells Fargo, here would be the solution.
Order a Revolut debit card, the card will come in the mail for a small fee.
Customers then can link a simple checking account to the Revolut debit card ala PayPal.
Why do this?
Because a customer armed with a Revolut debit card linked to a bank account can use the card globally and not be charged any fees.
It would be the same as going down to your local Albertson’s and buying a six-pack, there are no international or hidden fees.
There are no foreign transaction fees and the exchange rate is always the mid-market rate and not some manipulated rate that rips you off.
Ironically enough, the premise behind founding this online bank was exactly that, the originators were tired of meandering around Europe and getting hammered in every which way by inflexible banks who could care less about the user experience.
Revolut’s founder, Nikolay Storonsky, has doubled down on the firm’s growth prospects by claiming to reach the goal of 100 million customers by 2023 and a succession of new features.
To say this business has been wildly popular in Europe is an understatement and the American version just came out and is ready to go.
Since December 2018, Revolut won a specialized banking license from the European Central Bank, facilitated by the Bank of Lithuania which allows them to accept deposits and offer consumer credit products.
N26, a German like-minded online bank, echo the same principles as Revolut and eclipsed them as the most valuable FinTech startup with a $2.7 Billion Valuation.
N26 will come to America sometime in the spring and already boast 2.3 million users.
They execute in five languages across 24 countries with 700 staff, most recently launching in the U.K. last October with a high-profile marketing blitz across the capital.
Most of their revenue is subscription-based paying homage to the time-tested recurring revenue theme that I have harped on since the inception of the Mad Hedge Technology Letter.
And possibly the best part of their growth is that the average age of their customer is 31 which could be the beginning of a beautiful financial relationship that lasts a lifetime.
N26’s basic current account is free, while “Black” and “Metal” cards include higher ATM withdrawal limits overseas and benefits such as travel insurance and WeWork membership for a monthly fee.
Sad to say but Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and the others just can’t compete with the velocity of the new offerings let alone the software-backed talent.
We are at an inflection point in the banking system and there will be carnage to the hills, may I even say another Lehman moment for one of these stale business models.
Online banking is here to stay, and the momentum is only picking up steam.
If you want to take the easy way out, then buy the Global X FinTech ETF (FINX) with an assortment of companies exposed to FinTech such as PayPal, Square, and Intuit (INTU).
The death of cash is sooner than you think.
This year is the year of FinTech and I’m not afraid to say it.