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Tag Archive for: (MSFT)

Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Big Tech is Unstoppable

Tech Letter

The big loser at the Congress hearing grilling the top 4 CEOs in big tech was by far and away the U.S. government.

The U.S. government accused big tech of operating as illegal monopolies and big tech’s answer was largely indifference, betting that the government is too disjointed to actually hit them with some venom.

The only member of congress who was on point with her questions was Democratic Rep. Pramila Jayapal, who used internal Facebook documents to show data theft artist Mark Zuckerberg suppressing competition when he purchased Instagram in 2012.

Jayapal then cornered Amazon (AMZN) CEO Jeff Bezos into a corner, peppering him with questions about Amazon’s 3rd party data handling.

There has been a long-lasting campaign against Amazon in regard to them using internal data to hijack 3rd party sellers’ products deemed successful by recreating them as in-house products and catapulting their in-house branded products to the top of the Amazon search results.

The success of Congress stopped at Jayapal, as the rest of the motley crew appeared so out of touch with what real tech issues exist that it felt they were unfit to ask questions.

Playing into their inefficient display was the fact that they chose a time delegated for antitrust issues to complain about anti-conservative bias in social media, which is a separate issue entirely.

These arguments were armed with zero data to back up the claims, and gave the tech leaders an easy way out by just grandstanding about the issue. 

The biggest winner was the company that was not invited to the session – Microsoft (MSFT).

They were the only tech company over $1 trillion that wasn’t in attendance, and for good reason.

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella has been able to position the company as a trust-first cloud enterprise and refuse to traverse into that gray area where conflicting interests exist.

They are living proof that tech companies don’t need to swindle personal data to grow revenue, which is why I keep putting on call spreads in this brilliant company.

Microsoft is in great strategic position to expand their business, and the same cannot be said for Facebook because unlike Microsoft, Facebook produces nothing of meaningful substance.

This was evident as Congress picked on Zuckerberg’s company the most, even catching him in a bold face lie.

The most convenient line of reasoning for these tech companies doing what they do was the “American-first” playbook.

Highlighting China’s rise as tech competitor, fearmongering that China could one day be at the top of the tech pyramid but actually just demonstrating another way of avoiding the real issues.  

Watching this discussion made me realize that these tech companies have reached a level of power that supersedes the government.

Politicians are only invested  in short-term interest and protecting their tenure in government. Bezos, Zuckerberg, Cook, and Pichai can play the long game.  

This is exactly why investors pour capital into these 4 stocks plus Microsoft.

Apple earns over $55 billion in profits annually on $260 billion of revenue.

Amazon makes up 40% of U.S. online sales.

Facebook (FB) has 2.6 billion users which is 34% of the world’s population.

Lastly, 90% of internet searches are done through Google (GOOGL) search.

The real question should be: when will these companies hit the $2 trillion mark?

And even if Congress could conjure up some meaningful regulation against these 4, they certainly have the resources to navigate around it, especially when half of Congress still doesn’t understand what they actually do.

As it stands, these data empires are left to go their merry way and Congress is failing to protect individual user data on an epic scale.

To put the cherry on top, I would argue that the coronavirus has done big tech’s dirty work wiping out many businesses while big tech gets stronger.

I am bullish big tech.

big tech and congress

 

big tech and congress

 

big tech and congress

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-07-31 10:02:222020-08-02 17:35:24Big Tech is Unstoppable
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 27, 2020

Tech Letter



Mad Hedge Technology Letter
July 27, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(IS BIG TECH JUST A FLASH IN THE PAN?),
(MSFT), (AMZN), (AAPL), (GOOGL), (FB)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-07-27 10:04:402020-07-27 11:12:22July 27, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Is Big Tech Just A Flash in the Pan?

Tech Letter

Today’s tech newsletter might be the most important one you will ever read.

It’s my job to distill exactly what is going on in tech and disburse this information in a way that readers can take advantage of it in real-time.

The tech market is all about striking when the soil is fertile.

The five largest stocks in the S&P 500, Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOGL), and Facebook (FB) have accrued a combined valuation that surpasses the valuations of the stocks at the bottom 350 of the index.

This means that if you weren’t in tech the past few years, chances are that your portfolio significantly underperformed the broader market.

Even in August 2018, many active managers could have thrown in the towel and said the late economic cycle was way too frothy for their taste and time to take profits.

Little did they know that betting against the best growth industry in the last 2 generations would equate to self-firing themselves, because to replicate the same type of performance would have meant staying in tech through the coronavirus scare.

Many in the trading community would even go as far as to say to wait for the bear market, then big tech would get hammered first and deepest because of their lofty valuations.

These tech companies were in for a rude awakening and shares had to consolidate, right?

Well, anyone who doesn’t live under a rock is seeing the exact opposite play out with Amazon, Microsoft, and Apple valued above $1 trillion and still soaring as we speak.

This goes to show that betting against something because they are “too expensive” or “too cheap” is a fool’s game.

Just take oil for instance, that many retail investors bought because they came to the conclusion that oil could never go below zero.

Then playing oil through an ETF with massive contango meant that the index is likely to go down even if the price of oil is up.

Not only do investors bear insanely high risk in these trading vehicles, but also a systemic risk of oil ETFs blowing up.

Oil is cheap, and it can get cheaper, while tech is expensive and can get a lot more expensive.

Until there are structural changes, there is no point to bet on a sudden reversal out of thin air.

The “reversion to the mean” trade can blow up in your face if used irresponsibly.

Betting against things that an individual perceives as unsustainable and secretly hoping that they cannot continue to go on is probably the worst strategy that I have ever heard of in my life.

The reality is that these things are sustainable, and tech shares will keep moving higher uninterrupted until they don’t.

"Until they don’t" would mean meaningful structural damage to big tech’s business model, which I do not see one iota in today’s business climate.

In fact, these companies just keep going from strength to strength.

Active managers are the ones who set market prices and they help the momentum accelerate in tech with full knowledge that if they miss out, there is likely no other solution to hit yearend targets.

What active manager doesn’t want their year-end bonus?

Even analyze the value investors who, in a normal world, would not even consider tech companies because they avoid the traditional “growth” profile.

Funnily enough, these “value” investors have Microsoft in their portfolios now, even though it is not close to a value stock.

So what has Microsoft accomplished recently?

CEO of Microsoft Satya Nadella has rebuilt a company Microsoft that is now equal in value to The Financial Times Stock Exchange 100 Index, the share index of the 100 companies listed on the London Stock Exchange with the highest market capitalization.

That’s right, one American company is just as valuable as the top 100 public companies in England.

Even more hilarious, Jeff Bezos’s wealth is greater than the entire European country of Hungary.

Yes, the one south of Poland that serves goulash as the national cuisine.

An even broader view of tech would give us an even more stunning snapshot of the success showing that the Top 5 tech stocks are now worth more than the entire developed stock market outside the U.S. such as Europe, Canada, Japan, Hong Kong combined.

Then take into consideration that these companies are on the cusp of penetrating high margin industries like medicine and healthcare which will translate into another golden decade of accelerating revenue and elevated profits relative to the rest of the S&P index.

The U.S. is a place where unfettered capitalism is promoted and implemented, and tech’s outperformance manifests itself by pouncing on the winner-takes-all mentality.

Americans like winners and the rules are no different in corporate America.

These 5 tech names have contributed over 20% of the gains in the past month and until they falter, there will be no tech sell-off.

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-07-27 10:02:372020-07-27 14:50:33Is Big Tech Just A Flash in the Pan?
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 17, 2020

Tech Letter



Mad Hedge Technology Letter
July 17, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE ROAD OUT OF SILICON VALLEY),
(AAPL), (CRM), (MSFT), (FB), (AMZN), (GOOGL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-07-17 11:04:262020-07-17 13:33:27July 17, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Road Out of Silicon Valley

Tech Letter

In a study last year, 44% of Millennials planned to move out of the Bay Area in the “next few years.”

In the same study, 8% of Millennials indicated that they would move out of the Bay Area within the next 365 days.

Then Covid-19 hit.

The pandemic has accelerated this trend of Millennials ditching big-ticket cities and rental prices in San Francisco have experienced 30% drops with many owners offering free two months upon move in to salvage a souring situation.

The U.S. has also moved to ban foreign HB-1 visas citing the 40 million unemployed American citizens that are now looking for a job.

The knock-on effect is a wave of Indian and Chinese tech workers, who are usually the recipients of the HB-1 visas, that won’t be renting Silicon Valley apartments at inflated market prices.

The migratory trends sum it all up and the Bay Area has finally hit that inflection point where it is no longer the most desirable place to live anymore.  

On a social level, the area has also become squalid like some third world countries due to a ravaging homeless problem that is growing faster than any software company.

The pandemic forced the local city government to create a tent encampment in front of San Francisco city hall.  

The ones that weren’t gifted a spot in front of city hall were temporarily put up in five-star hotels in Russian Hill and paid by for the city because of the absence of any travelers.

Salesforce Founder and CEO Marc Benioff has lamented that San Francisco, where ironically he is from, is a diabolical “train wreck” and urged fellow tech CEOs to “walk down the street” and see it with their own eyes to observe the corrosion of society.

The leader of Salesforce doesn’t mince his words when he talks and beelines to the heart of the issues.

Sadly, the pandemic will put more pressure on the lower end of society and force more Americans into homelessness adding to the surge.

How many homeless can San Francisco absorb?

It’s scary to think about what will happen when the eviction moratorium ends and extended unemployment benefits stop.

It’s just another factor in a long list of why San Francisco is losing talent.

The environment has really turned from day to night in Silicon Valley where just a half a year ago, Silicon Valley was overflowing with tech jobs and now start-ups are shedding jobs faster than ever.

Uber, Lyft, and Google are just some that have rescinded job offers to new graduates, frozen salaries, slashed annual bonuses, and straight-up laid-off employees.

The trend of outsourcing tech jobs from California was already well underway before the pandemic.  

That was exactly what Apple’s $1 billion investment into a new tech campus in Austin, Texas and Amazon adding 500 employees in Nashville, Tennessee is all about.

Apple also added numbers in San Diego, Atlanta, Culver City, and Boulder just to name a few.

Apple currently employs 90,000 people in 50 states and is in the works to create 20,000 more jobs in the US by 2023.

Most of these new jobs won’t be in Silicon Valley but is it possible that the pace of new hires will get bogged down because of the health crisis.

Millennials are reaching that age of family formation and they are fleeing to places that are affordable and possible to take the first step onto the property ladder.

The health crisis has crushed many of their dreams to become a first-time homebuyer, meaning they could become lifelong renters.

Millennials came of age during 9-11, graduated into the Great Recession of 2008, and have now been dealt a cruel and devastating blow of navigating through Covid-19 during many of their best years of income earning.

No wonder why Silicon real estate has dropped, people and their paychecks are on the way out.

In a perfect storm of a health crisis, economic crisis, and the desire to live in more physical space as most jobs become remote, San Francisco has never been less attractive at any point in time.

It will no longer be the economic juggernaut that was so vital to tech companies.

Silicon Valley simply doesn’t share the wealth with all of its participants and the place is now feeling the side effects.

The last time San Francisco was this unattractive, you would have to go back to before the California Gold Rush of 1848 when San Francisco was just a backwater village of 10,000 people.

When hiring comes back, look for many of the second-tier cities like Nashville to recover fast taking off from what Silicon Valley built.  

Just as harrowing as the health crisis, the start of wildfire season has just commenced in the state of California.

It used to be such a great place to live.

Silicon Valley

 

Silicon Valley

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/aapl-employees.png 790 934 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-07-17 11:02:122020-07-17 18:08:12The Road Out of Silicon Valley
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 15, 2020

Tech Letter



Mad Hedge Technology Letter
July 15, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(CLOUD 101)
(AMZN), (MSFT), (GOOGL), (DOCU), (CRM), (ZS)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-07-15 14:04:432020-07-15 17:10:42July 15, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Cloud 101

Tech Letter

If you've been living under a rock the past few years, the cloud phenomenon hasn't passed you by and you still have time to cash in.

You want to hitch your wagon to cloud-based investments in any way, shape, or form.

Amazon leads the cloud industry it created.

It still maintains more than 30% of the cloud market. Microsoft would need to gain a lot of ground to even come close to this jewel of a business.

Amazon (AMZN) relies on AWS to underpin the rest of its businesses and that is why AWS contributes most of Amazon's total operating income.

Total revenue for just the AWS division would operate as a healthy stand-alone tech company if need be.

The future is about the cloud.

These days, the average investor probably hears about the cloud a dozen times a day.

If you work in Silicon Valley, you can triple that figure.

So, before we get deep into the weeds with this letter on cloud services, cloud fundamentals, cloud plays, and cloud Trade Alerts, let's get into the basics of what the cloud actually is.

Think of this as a cloud primer.

It's important to understand the cloud, both its strengths and limitations.

Giant companies that have it figured out, such as Salesforce (CRM) and Zscaler (ZS), are some of the fastest-growing companies in the world.

Understand the cloud and you will readily identify its bottlenecks and bulges that can lead to extreme investment opportunities. And that's where I come in.

Cloud storage refers to the online space where you can store data. It resides across multiple remote servers housed inside massive data centers all over the country, some as large as football fields, often in rural areas where land, labor, and electricity are cheap.

They are built using virtualization technology, which means that storage space spans across many different servers and multiple locations. If this sounds crazy, remember that the original Department of Defense packet-switching design was intended to make the system atomic bomb proof.

As a user, you can access any single server at any one time anywhere in the world. These servers are owned, maintained, and operated by giant third-party companies such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet (GOOGL), which may or may not charge a fee for using them.

The most important features of cloud storage are:

1) It is a service provided by an external provider.

2) All data is stored outside your computer residing inside an in-house network.

3) A simple Internet connection will allow you to access your data at any time from anywhere.

4) Because of all these features, sharing data with others is vastly easier, and you can even work with multiple people online at the same time, making it the perfect, collaborative vehicle for our globalized world.

Once you start using the cloud to store a company's data, the benefits are many.

  1. No Maintenance

Many companies, regardless of their size, prefer to store data inside in-house servers and data centers.

However, these require constant 24-hour-a-day maintenance, so the company has to employ a large in-house IT staff to manage them - a costly proposition.

Thanks to cloud storage, businesses can save costs on maintenance since their servers are now the headache of third-party providers.

Instead, they can focus resources on the core aspects of their business where they can add the most value, without worrying about managing IT staff of prima donnas.

  1. Greater Flexibility

Today's employees want to have a better work/life balance and this goal can be best achieved by letting them telecommute. Increasingly, workers are bending their jobs to fit their lifestyles, and that is certainly the case here at Mad Hedge Fund Trader.

How else can I send off a Trade Alert while hanging from the face of a Swiss Alp?

Cloud storage services, such as Google Drive, offer exactly this kind of flexibility for employees.

With data stored online, it's easy for employees to log into a cloud portal, work on the data they need to, and then log off when they're done. This way a single project can be worked on by a global team, the work handed off from time zone to time zone until it's done.

It also makes them work more efficiently, saving money for penny-pinching entrepreneurs.

  1. Better Collaboration and Communication

In today's business environment, it's common practice for employees to collaborate and communicate with co-workers located around the world.

For example, they may have to work on the same client proposal together or provide feedback on training documents. Cloud-based tools from DocuSign, Dropbox, and Google Drive make collaboration and document management a piece of cake.

These products, which all offer free entry-level versions, allow users to access the latest versions of any document so they can stay on top of real-time changes which can help businesses to better manage workflow, regardless of geographical location.

  1. Data Protection

Another important reason to move to the cloud is for better protection of your data, especially in the event of a natural disaster. Hurricane Sandy wreaked havoc on local data centers in New York City, forcing many websites to shut down their operations for days.

The cloud simply routes traffic around problem areas as if, yes, they have just been destroyed by a nuclear attack.

It's best to move data to the cloud, to avoid such disruptions because there your data will be stored in multiple locations.

This redundancy makes it so that even if one area is affected, your operations don't have to capitulate, and data remains accessible no matter what happens. It's a system called deduplication.

  1. Lower Overhead

The cloud can save businesses a lot of money.

By outsourcing data storage to cloud providers, businesses save on capital and maintenance costs, money that in turn can be used to expand the business. Setting up an in-house data center requires tens of thousands of dollars in investment, and that's not to mention the maintenance costs it carries.

Plus, considering the security, reduced lag, up-time and controlled environments that providers such as Amazon's AWS have, creating an in-house data center seems about as contemporary as a buggy whip, a corset, or a Model T.

cloud storage

 

cloud storage

 

cloud storage

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-07-15 14:02:202020-07-16 09:05:33Cloud 101
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 13, 2020

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
July 13, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or HERE COME HERD IMMUNITY),
(INDU), (TSLA), (SPY), (GLD), (JPM), (IBB), (QQQ), (AAPL), (MSFT), (DCUE), (NVDA)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-07-13 11:04:312020-07-13 15:05:39July 13, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or Here Comes Herd Immunity

Diary, Newsletter

The US passed a single-day record of 70,000 new cases for Covid-19 over the weekend, with Florida bringing in an astounding 15,300.

We missed a chance to stop the epidemic in January because we were blind. Then we missed again in April because we were lazy, when New York City was losing nearly 1,000 souls a day and ignored the lessons therein.

So, we relentlessly continue our march towards herd immunity, when two-third of the population gets the disease, protecting the remaining one third. That’s about a year off.

That implies total American deaths will reach 2.2 million, more than we have lost from all our wars combined.

The faster people die, the closer we are to the end of the plague, which is good news for everyone.

And the stock market keeps going up every day, the worse the news, the faster. That may be happening because the more severe the shock to the system, the faster companies must evolve to survive, making them ever more profitable.

Out with the Old America, in with the new. The future is happening fast.

We here at Mad Hedge Fund Trader have just delivered the most astonishing quarter in our 13-year record, up some 41.98% from the March 16 low.

That makes me cautious. Things never stay that good for long. Just because I can’t see the next black swan doesn’t mean it isn’t going to happen.

If stocks rise when corona cases are exploding, what do they do when cases fall? Do they fall too, or do they rise even faster?

That’s above my pay grade. I’m only a captain, not a general.

So, I will be moving to a 100% cash position in coming days and then let the next black swan tell me what to do. If we suffer a severe dive, and 10%-20% is entirely possible, then I’ll jump back in with my “BUY” hat on. That means testing the lower up of my six-month (SPX) 2,700-$3,200 range.

If we suddenly surge to far greater heights and new all-time highs, then I will be selling short as fast as I can write the trade alerts.

In the meantime, we have Q2 earnings to look forward to in the coming week, which will certainly be one for the history books. The bullish view is that they will be down only 44% from a dismal Q1. The bearish view is far worse. Banks (JPM) kick off on Tuesday.

NASDAQ (QQQ) hit a new high at 10,622, with Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) leading the charge. Elon Musk is now looking at another $1.7 billion payday with his shares touching $1,500. I’m moving to 100% cash, peeling off one profitable position a day as each option play reaches its maximum profit. I just had the best quarter in a decade, up an eye-popping 40%, and I’m just not that smart to keep it going. Humility always wins in the long-term.

Goldman Sachs chopped its growth forecast in the face of soaring Covid-19 cases, paring their Q3 prediction from +33% to +25%. Political campaign rallies are spreading the disease faster than expected. Q1 most likely came in at negative -5%. Expect worse to come. If the stock market can’t break at 135,000 corona deaths, it will at 260,000 or 520,000, which is certainly coming.

NVIDIA topped Intel as most valuable chip company. No surprise here. High-end graphics cards are worth a lot more money than plain commodity processors. Keep buying dips on (NVDA) which we’ve been loading the boat with now for four years. There’s an easy double from here.

Warren Buffet bought Dominion Energy (DCUE), in one of the only distressed sales available this year, thanks so much to government support. With natural gas prices at all-time lows, the big boys are throwing in the towel. Immense public pressure is forcing public utilities to abandon fossil fuels. Warren will sell all of his newfound energy in the $10 billion deal to China. It’s the beginning of the end for carbon. Buy (TSLA) on dips.


Dividend Cuts
will drive stock trading in H2. Energy, airline, cruise lines, casinos, movie theaters, and hotels are most at risk, while big technology companies like Apple are the safest. Currently, the S&P 500 is yielding 2.0%, while the ten-year US Treasury bond is paying out 0.65%. Room for a cut?

Tesla to reach $100 billion in annual revenue by 2025, says San Francisco-based JMP Securities. The logic goes that if they can produce 90,000 vehicles a quarter during a pandemic, 140,000 a quarter should be no problem by yearend. The news delivered a move in the shares to a new all-time high of $1,549. Inclusion of (TSLA) in the S&P 500 would also deliver a lot of forced institutional buying, which might take the shares up 40% more. The future is happening fast. Keep buying (TSLA) on dips for a 2021 target of $2,500. If this keeps up, we may see it next week. Remember, I traded Tokyo in 1989. Nothing is impossible.

US student visas were canceled in ostensibly an administration coronavirus-fighting measure, but really in the umpteenth measure to shut foreigners out. “America first” is turning into “America only.” Midwestern schools in particular will be hurt by the loss of 400,000 full tuition-paying international students, especially when state education budgets are getting cut to the bone. That’s down from 800,000 three years ago. If they’re already here, how does this help us? Most colleges are moving to online-only models to limit infections.


When we come out the other side of this, we will be perfectly poised to launch into my new American Golden Age, or the next Roaring Twenties. With interest rates still at zero, oil cheap, there will be no reason not to. The Dow Average will rise by 400% or more in the coming decade.

My Global Trading Dispatch enjoyed another blockbuster week, up an astounding +2.28. It was a week when everything worked in the extreme….again.

My eleven-year performance rocketed to a new all-time high of 381.74%. A triple weighting in biotech and a double weighting in gold were a big help. A foray into the banks proved immediately successful. I seem to have the Midas touch these days.

That takes my 2020 YTD return up to an industry-beating +25.83%. This compares to a loss for the Dow Average of -8.8%, up from -37% on March 23. My trailing one-year return popped back up to a record 66.22%, also THE HIGHEST IN THE 13-YEAR HISTORY of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader. My eleven-year average annualized profit recovered to a record +36.07%, another new high. 

The only numbers that count for the market are the number of US Coronavirus cases and deaths, which you can find here. It’s jobs week and we should see an onslaught of truly awful numbers.

On Monday, July 13 at 10:00 AM EST, the June Inflation Expectations are out.

On Tuesday, July 14 at 7:30 AM EST, US Core Inflation for June is published

On Wednesday, July 15, at 7:30 AM EST, US Industrial Production for June is announced. At 10:30 AM EST, the  EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks are out.

On Thursday, June 16 at 8:30 AM EST, Weekly Jobless Claims are announced. At 7:30 AM, US Retail Sales for June is printed.

On Friday, June 17, at 7:30 AM EST, the US Housing Starts for June are released.

The Baker Hughes Rig Count is out at 2:00 PM EST.

As for me, I am training hard for my upcoming 50-mile hike with the Boy Scouts, knocking off 10 miles a day at 9,000 feet on the Tahoe Rim Trail. I have to confess that I’m feeling the knees like never before.

As they used to say in the Marine Corps, “Pain is fear leaving the body.” More than knowledge comes with age. Pain is there as well.

Marine Corps to Boy Scout leader. It’s been a full life.

Stay healthy.

John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Years Have Not Been Kind

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/john-shirtless.png 400 352 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-07-13 11:02:402020-07-13 15:05:31The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or Here Comes Herd Immunity
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 8, 2020

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
July 8, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(TRADING THE BLUE WAVE STOCK MARKET),
(FB), (AAPL), (MSFT), (AMZN), (ADBE), (SQ), (PYPL), (CRM), (SGEN), (REGN), (ILMN) (FEYE), (PANW), (AMD), (MU), (NVDA), (TSLA), (LEN), (PHM), (KBH), (XOM), (CVX), (XOM), (RTN), (NOC), (LMT), (KOL), (X), (GE)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-07-08 09:04:532020-07-08 08:57:08July 8, 2020
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