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Tag Archive for: (NOVN)

Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Take a Walk on the Wild Side with Gene Editing

Biotech Letter

No other industry has inspired fear as much as the biotech world, and no other sector of the biotech industry has garnered such mixed reactions as the gene-editing group.

At the moment, the public has been grossly undervaluing the three major companies that actually hold the power to control the foundational patents for CRISPR-CAS9 — the gene-editing technique with the greatest potential to dominate the biotech industry. These overlooked Big 3 companies are Editas (EDIT), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP).

There are distinct differences between these three pioneering biotech firms. With a market value of $2.7 billion, Crispr Therapeutics (CRSP) is the first company to venture into clinical trials, attracting Vertex Therapeutics (VRTX) as one of its major investors. Editas, which has a market cap of $1.3 billion, is a close second to Crispr Therapeutics in terms of clinical trials. Despite the issues plaguing its executive department lately, the company is anticipated to eventually land a big partner to help fund its research as well.

Then there's Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA). The company, which has a market cap of $850 million, is considered the laggard in the CRISPR gene-editing world. What further fuels the ambivalence of investors is the expectation that clinical trials for its lone drug candidate won't be ready until 2020 or even 2021. The lack of flashy updates from Intellia Therapeutics has several investors wondering if this low market cap company is actually a good buy.

In its third-quarter earnings report though, Intellia Therapeutics posted revenues worth $10.62 million — a jump from the $7.41 million recorded during the same period in 2018. Aside from that, the company managed to attract Novartis AG (NOVN) as one of its major investors. Recently, the company also established a partnership with Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN), which is viewed as a promising step towards bolstering Intellia Therapeutics’ growth.

Based on their recent updates, Regeneron and Intellia Therapeutics are working on NTLA-2001. This is a treatment for a rare disease called transthyretin amyloidosis (ATTR), also known as a protein misfolding disorder which causes an abnormal protein buildup in the body's organs and tissues.

While this has yet to reach human trials, the preclinical studies involving non-human primates showed an over 95% reduction of the protein in the patient's liver. Since this disease requires chronic dosing throughout the lifetime of the patient, the success of NTLA-2001 has an incredible disruptive potential for one-shot treatments of ATTR. Apart from that, this treatment will position Intellia Therapeutics as the sole dominating force in this gene-silencing sector.

As things stand today, Intellia Therapeutics may seem as if it has been straggling behind Crispr Therapeutics and Editas. However, the promising plans of the company may prove this statement false. While its move to take its time before pulling the trigger on NTLA-2001 may be frustrating for investors eager to see the results, the recent developments show that this was a necessary precautionary measure to protect the company’s potentially revolutionary delivery system. Despite the delay, this move could translate to dividends across all the drugs and treatments in Intellia Therapeutics’ pipeline in the next years.

Despite their status of being on the verge of discovering treatments for the incurable diseases, it’s baffling to watch how investors continue to sidestep these Big 3 companies, which have a measly $5 billion valuation among all three of them.

Gradually though, a number of forward-thinking investors are starting to shift out of growth names and turn into more defensive investment strategies. With this switch in style slowly making its way to the public, more and more biotech stocks are revealed to be extremely undervalued — and it’s only a matter of time before the likes of Crispr, Editas, and Intellia become a household name among investors.

While the biotech industry can be a scary place to invest in, the key to succeeding in this sector is understanding the market. It’s also advisable to diversify your portfolio. However, bear in mind that not all portfolios chock full of trials in their pipeline guarantee success. At times, a company only needs one or two promising treatments that can eventually serve as the stepping stone to 30 or more moneymakers.

Buy Intellia Therapeutics on dips, as it is the cheapest of the lot.

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/intellia.png 416 416 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-19 05:00:262019-11-19 05:01:08Take a Walk on the Wild Side with Gene Editing
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 23, 2019

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 23, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(BIOGEN’S HUGE DISCOVERY),
(BIIB), (IBB), (NOVN), (ROG),
(PLEASE USE MY FREE DATABASE SEARCH)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-10-23 08:06:022019-10-23 08:52:04October 23, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Biogen’s Huge Discovery

Diary, Newsletter, Research

It is the sort of development that most Biotech investors only dream about. It also shows what’s possible in biotech investing, which is occurring with increasing frequency.

Biogen shares (BIIB) have exploded to the upside on its FDA application for its new Alzheimer’s drug. Written off for dead six months ago, the company secretly kept working on Aducanumab until today’s blockbuster announcement.

The drug reverses amyloid plaques thought responsible for Alzheimer’s. This could eventually cure tens of millions of Alzheimer’s sufferers and maybe even myself someday. The stock is up an incredible 40% today and has even dragged up the biotech ETF (IBB) an impressive 3%.

Way back in March, we saw a huge flop for Biogen (BIIB) as the biotech company supposedly shut down research for Alzheimer's treatment: aducanumab (BIIB037) on the failure of a stage 3 trial. This announcement was a curveball for its shareholders as the drug was touted as a potential groundbreaking miracle treatment with sales pegged at the tens of billions.

Biogen has for some time made Alzheimer's experiments the epicenter of their new drug pipeline. It also offers a multiple sclerosis treatment called Tecfidera.

Generic competition has been hot on its heels and shareholders can expect a number of patent challenges in the next few years. This would undoubtedly lead to a fall in sales soon especially with the recent crackdown on the skyrocketing prices of meds.

To combat these looming challenges, Biogen has shifted its focus on Spinraza which has been beating expectations since its release three years ago. Set to exceed the $2 billion in sales mark, this spinal muscular atrophy drug has been dominating the rare disease market for quite some time.

This reign might not last long though as Novartis AG (NOVN) and Roche Holding AG (ROG) are gunning to release their own version of the drug by 2020 or 2021. This means Biogen would once again see another blockbuster drug go flat.

How does Biogen plan to deal with the backlash?

If history is any indication, then investors can expect Biogen to start looking into acquiring medium-size biopharma firms as soon as possible. Since the company closed 2018 with $3.5 billion in cash along with $5.3 billion in its free cash flow, a buyout is a viable solution at the moment. However, the biotech giant can only afford one.

The medium-sized biopharma firms speculated to be under consideration include ACADIA Pharmaceuticals, Biohaven Pharmaceutical Holding Company, and Alder Biopharmaceuticals. However, Neurocrania Biosciences and Sage Therapeutics are said to be potential frontrunners for a Biogen takeover.

While a lot of investors would understandably be wary of another risk from Biogen, Neurocrania and Sage could be promising targets for the biopharma giant.

Neurocrania has been raking in huge profits from their blockbuster tardive dyskinesia drug Ingrezza since gaining FDA approval in 2017. In fact, annual sales of this product has reached $410 million in 2018.

Aside from their success with Ingrezza, Neurocrine has taken the first step towards gene therapy via their collaboration with Voyager Therapeutics. Just this month, Neurocrine has invested $165 million to commence the process of coming up with a treatment drug for Parkinson's disease.

Another good option is Sage as the company also focuses on neurology, which means their goals could align with Biogen's. The recent approval of Zulresso makes Sage the first company to provide treatment for severe postpartum depression.

While the Alzheimer's debacle can be overwhelming, Biogen's fundamentals remain attractive. In terms of revenue estimates, the company is anticipated to report a 2.2% increase this year or up to $13.75 billion. Meanwhile, growth for earnings per share is projected to be at 9.4% or up to $28.67 from its current EPS of $21.58.

 

 

 

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/aducanumab.png 597 899 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-10-23 08:04:112019-12-09 13:10:28Biogen’s Huge Discovery
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 1, 2019

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
October 1, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE PLAYERS GUIDE TO BIOTECH INVESTING)
(AMGN), (PFE), (NOVN), (ABBV), (ABT),
(AGN), (ROG), (GSK), (CELG), (JNJ), (BMY)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-10-01 07:02:552019-10-01 06:52:25October 1, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Players Guide to Biotech Investing

Biotech Letter

You can’t watch a game without a program, and the lineup for biotech and healthcare is truly astonishing. No surprise then that the fields account for more or less than 17% of US GPD.

Here is a listing of the biggest $100 billion plus products you have never heard of. The good news is that you have just stumbled across a sector that will generate no less than a staggering $1.4 trillion in sales over the next five years.

That means it’s certainly worth your time getting to know this field. With this amount at stake, it’s no wonder companies manufacturing these blockbuster drugs are sparing no expense to fight off patent vultures.

A good example is Amgen (AMGN), which recently won its case to extend the patent life of rheumatoid arthritis biological Enbrel against Novartis AG’s (NOVN) biosimilar arm Sandoz. Since each extra hour added to patent life means millions of dollars (and sometimes billions) in sales, the additional 10 years of exclusivity for Enbrel is a massive victory for Amgen.

In a recent study released by Evaluate Pharma, Enbrel was ranked third in the top 10 biggest sellers up to 2024. The forward-looking consensus projection anticipates Amgen’s golden goose to hit roughly $140 billion in total revenues in five years – a truly impressive performance particularly for a drug that has been around for more than 20 years. However, Enbrel’s longevity pales in comparison to the other behemoths in the biopharma realm.

Up until 2018, Pfizer’s (PFE) Lipitor held the title of earning the highest lifetime sales in the industry. Since its launch in 1997, the cholesterol drug has raked in $164.4 billion in revenues so far with the number estimated to reach $180 billion by 2024. Lipitor’s success is highlighted more by the fact that it's under a small molecule status and holds approval for a very narrow indication.

Overtaking Lipitor to take the top spot is AbbVie’s (ABBV) rheumatoid arthritis treatment Humira, which closed with $20 billion in sales in 2018 alone. While some AbbVie investors frown upon the over-reliance of the company on Humira, it appears that the efforts to protect the drug has paid off big time.

With patent protection (132 approved patents!) safeguarding its exclusivity in the market, Humira is projected to reach a total of $240 billion in revenues by 2024. Clearly, the rewards they’ve been reaping show no signs of abating anytime soon.

More importantly, Humira’s robust sales, which makes up almost 70% of the company’s profits, has provided AbbVie with the financial capacity to finally get out of the shadow of parent company Abbott Laboratories (ABT) and come up with its own pipeline. As it happens, AbbVie’s efforts towards this direction have already started with the massive purchase of Allergan (AGN) for $63 billion this year.

Apart from Lipitor, Humira, and Enbrel, there are three more blockbuster products with sales that hit the $100 billion mark as of 2018 -- a figure that would make Ecuador proud to claim as their annual GDP. These are Roche Holding Ltd. Genussscheine’s (ROG) chemotherapy drug Rituxan, Amgen’s anemia treatment Epogen, and GlaxoSmithKline’s (GSK) asthma medication Advair.

One biopharma bestseller that leapfrogged a lot of other drugs in the market is multiple myeloma medication Revlimid -- aka the drug that built Celgene (CELG). With an entry date of 2008, this drug is the newest one on the list. While Revlimid’s sales are impressive, what’s actually quite exciting is the fact that its projected revenues easily outstrip its already notable sales of $53.69 billion.

By 2024, this Celgene blockbuster is estimated to reach $123.64 billion in sales. There’s a caveat to this though as Revlimid’s success in the years to come is dependent on how Celgene plans to deal with generic competition chomping at the bit and ready to attack once the drug reaches its 2022 patent expiration date.

Another big-ticket drug that might see a bit of a decline in sales soon is from Johnson & Johnson (JNJ). While the company has always been aggressive when it comes to dominating the market for its Crohn's Disease drug Remicade, an investigation by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) might put a damper on things soon. According to recent reports, JNJ has been suspected of contracting payers to ensure market control and stave off competitors.

Meanwhile, the three horsemen of Roche, namely, Rituxan, cancer and eye disease medication Avastin, and breast cancer treatment Herceptin, reached a collective amount of $365 billion in total sales. These three are anticipated to stay put on top of the industry in the next five years as well, thanks to their competitive pricing and aggressive strategies to protect their patents.

Rounding out the list is Amgen’s Epogen, which is expected to add $107.90 billion to the already astounding $115.87 billion it generated for the company. Meanwhile, GSK’s Advair, which brought in $113.61 billion, is expected to pour in an additional $104.20 billion by 2024.

Interestingly, the majority of the top 10 franchise drugs are biologics except for Sanofi’s (SAN) ulcer treatment Zantac, Bristol-Myers Squibb Co’s (BMY) heart medication Plavix, Advair, and of course, Lipitor. In fact, this is considered as the primary reason for their capability to fight off potential copycats for years.

In some cases, their monopoly of the market has allowed them to expand to include various other indications in their coverage. The massive sales of biologics are also rooted in their ability to demand big-ticket reimbursements. Unlike their generic competitors, brand recognition alone makes it more convenient for patients to ask for compensation.

Needless to say, the success stories of these drugs make it quite obvious why these biopharma companies employ a battalion of legal experts to fend off the rise of generics. While the onslaught of biosimilars cannot be helped, these lawyers ensure that patients opting for these versions of the medication would find it incredibly difficult to ask for biosimilar reimbursements.

 

The Winner So Far

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/biopharma-biggest-sellers.png 460 683 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-10-01 07:00:322019-10-01 06:52:08The Players Guide to Biotech Investing
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