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Tag Archive for: (REGN)

Mad Hedge Fund Trader

August 4, 2020

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
August 4, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(MERCK’S SLOW BUT STEADY COVID-19 HEADWAY)

(MRK), (GILD), (REGN), (AZN), (PFE), (MRNA), (ABBV), (BMY), (RHHBY)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-08-04 09:32:052020-08-06 09:43:45August 4, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Merck's Slow but Steady Covid-19 Headway

Biotech Letter

Is it truly better late than never?

Merck has been decisively cautious in its approach of potential COVID-19 treatments and even more so when it comes to their vaccine candidates.

Recently though, the company has finally offered a glimpse of its progress.

The first promising update is Merck’s work on MK-4482, which is an antiviral candidate aimed at treating COVID-19 patients. Basically, this candidate works by preventing the SARS-CoV-2 from replicating.

The laboratory results showed that an increasing dose of MK-4482 can effectively halt the progress of the virus in a patient’s system.

Judging from the timeline followed up to this point, Merck plans to begin huge trials by September.

The MK-4482 is expected to compete with Gilead Sciences’ (GILD) Remdesivir, with the Merck candidate possibly edging out the latter.

This is because the SARS-CoV-2 tends to mutate, rendering Remdesivir less potent the next time it is administered to patients. In comparison, MK-4482 has demonstrated an ability to fight off the mutated versions of the virus.

MK-4482 also comes in tablet form, making it a preferable and more convenient option compared to Gilead’s intravenous infusion and even Regeneron’s (REGN) injectable antiviral cocktail REGN-COV2. 

On the COVID-19 vaccine front, Merck has been working with Thermis Biosciences in developing a candidate based on a measles virus vector platform originally developed by the Institut Pasteur researchers.

However, this is not Merck’s only shot on goal.

The company is also collaborating with the International AIDS Vaccine Initiative to develop another vaccine candidate, V590.

The two are using the same platform that Merck created for its already approved Ebola vaccine. The goal is to start human testing by the third quarter of 2020.

Merck is also looking into offering a single-dose vaccine instead of the double dose shots its competitors are working on, with one of its candidates developed to be taken orally instead of via injectibles.

If they succeed, then Merck’s vaccines will be more accessible and convenient for a lot of patients.

Aside from developing V590, Merck plans to use the same approved technology to advance its other antivirals in its clinical testing pipeline.

In fact, Merck’s move to acquire Thermis Bioscience demonstrates the company’s resolve to focus on strengthening its vaccine program. The primary expectation for this newly formed partnership is to come out swinging and eventually win big on the COVID-19 vaccine race.

The victory will then serve as a springboard for a new and powerful revenue stream for Merck, which would serve to quiet the fears of the company’s investors fretting over the patent expiration of blockbuster drug Keytruda.

The impending loss of exclusivity for cancer treatment Keytruda has been hanging over Merck’s head for quite some time now.

Aside from the potential biosimilar competition, Keytruda has been facing stiff competition against biotechnology giants like Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY), Roche (RHHBY), and Regeneron.

Needless to say, fears over this have been overshadowing the company’s impressive internal pipeline – a reaction that pretty much mirrors the experience of AbbVie (ABBV) on the pending patent loss of its blockbuster Humira.

However, Merck has been working on products that could rake in an additional $13 billion to $18 billion to its sales every year.

The list includes immuno-oncology antibody candidates, additional vaccines, and even HIV treatments.

The company also has more than $40 billion on its balance sheet, putting it in a favorable position to acquire more companies or products that could bolster its franchise.

Since the pandemic broke out, Merck has lagged behind its COVID-19 rivals AstraZeneca (AZN), Pfizer (PFE), and Moderna (MRNA).

Looking at its progress and future plans though, it looks like the company has set out to achieve a tortoise over the hare victory particularly in the COVID-19 vaccine race.

With incredible uncertainty hovering over the rest of 2020, it is only natural to seek stocks for an all-weather portfolio.

While there are many factors to consider, looking at businesses that allocated sensibly to capital expenditures and R&D is definitely a great way to start.

Merck’s strategic partnerships with companies like Thermis Biosciences, Taiho Pharmaceuticals, and Astex Pharmaceuticals also play significant roles in this aspect.

Although Merck has not provided a particularly strong performance so far this year, this biotechnology and health care giant is poised to stage a strong comeback when the dust settles.

merck

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-08-04 09:30:032020-08-05 16:37:29Merck's Slow but Steady Covid-19 Headway
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

August 4, 2020

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
August 4, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(MEET THE ITALIAN LEONARDO FIBONACCI)

(MRK), (GILD), (REGN), (AZN), (PFE), (MRNA), (ABBV), (BMY), (RHHBY)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-08-04 09:04:112020-08-04 11:27:17August 4, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 30, 2020

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
July 30, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(ABBVIE'S UNEXPECTED UPSIDES)
(ABBV), (GMAB), (REGN)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-07-30 05:02:272020-07-30 03:42:52July 30, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

AbbVie's Unexpected Upsides

Biotech Letter

After going through what could arguably be described as one of the most promising quarterly stock market performances in the past 10 years, the horrific stock market crash at the beginning of 2020 feels like a distant memory.

With the revival of the financial sector, people now will not stop complaining about exorbitant market valuations.

Despite that, not all stocks are offered at premium prices. There are several companies that remain at relatively bargain prices regardless of the encouraging market revival in the past months.

A stock that falls under this category is AbbVie (ABBV).

In the past three months, AbbVie shares jumped by over 20%. Even so, this biotechnology and healthcare stock remains unreasonably cheap, only trading at roughly 10 times its expected earnings.

Looking at the company’s profile, investors appear to shun AbbVie shares out of fear stemming from the looming US patent exclusivity loss for its highest selling rheumatoid arthritis drug Humira by 2023.

While the reality is that Humira will soon face biosimilar competition, the sales for AbbVie’s cash cow remain impressive.

In the first quarter of 2020, Humira generated $3.7 billion in revenue in the US alone, showing off a 13.7% climb year-over-year.

However, AbbVie is not twiddling its thumbs, waiting for the Humira patent exclusivity to expire in the next 3 years.

Instead, the Illinois-based company has been busy developing its next blockbuster products.

The frontrunners in AbbVie’s lineup are leukemia and lymphoma drugs Venclexta and Imbruvica.

The two generated a total of approximately $5.5 billion in annual revenues in 2019 – and 2020 is projected to record a strong double-digit growth.

In the first quarter of this year alone, Venclexta and Imbruvica raked in a total of $1.5 billion in global sales or a 32% year-over-year increase.

Still, AbbVie’s oncology franchise has yet to stop growing.

Riding the momentum of its cancer research expansion, AbbVie also recently established a partnership with Denmark’s GenMab (GMAB).

The goal is to come up with 3 anticancer antibodies, which will ultimately be able to attack cancer cells without damaging the normal and healthy ones.

If the programs succeed, AbbVie will pay $3.15 billion. This is on top of the $750 million it already offered upfront to GenMab.

However, the biggest move AbbVie made in an effort to lessen the top-line exposure to Humira is its acquisition of Allergan.

AbbVie is projected to collect over $2 billion in savings annually within 3 years since this $63 billion acquisition.

This will translate to roughly $1 per share, with 2021 earnings per share hitting $11.80 compared to $10.25 estimated in 2020.

More importantly, AbbVie gains access to Allergan’s crown jewel Botox.

While this drug is commonly known as a cosmetic procedure treatment, it can also be used to treat a wide range of medical conditions.

Just this July, Allergan received FDA approval to expand the use of Botox to cover some pediatric patients including those with cerebral palsy.

Aside from Botox, AbbVie also picked up a couple of exciting products like antipsychotic drug Vraylar.  

On top of the drugs from its Allergan acquisition, AbbVie has been developing new-generation autoimmune treatments.

Two of these products, Rinvoq and Skyrizi, are expected to generate $20 billion in annual sales – a number comparable to Humira’s record.

In fact, Rinvoq is anticipated to transform into an aggressive rival of Regeneron’s (REGN) very own cash cow, atopic dermatitis drug Dupixent.

One advantage of Rinvoq over Dupixent is that AbbVie’s drug comes in the form of a pill while Regeneron’s product is an injection. This easily makes Rinvoq the more convenient option.

Even if Rinvoq fails to take away from Dupixent’s market share, the AbbVie drug can still benefit from the same group. After all, there are at least 10% to 25% of the patient pool who are unresponsive to Regeneron’s product.

That means AbbVie could earn roughly $340 million at a minimum after 2 years of its Rinvoq launch.

On the COVID-19 front, AbbVie attracted attention when its cholesterol drug Tricor was found to be effective in fighting SARS-CoV2.

There’s still no conclusive data, but the optimism was spurred when scientists at the Hebrew University in Israel and New York’s Mount Sinai Medical Center claimed that Tricor could potentially downgrade the deadly virus into “nothing worse than a common cold.”

Thanks to the promising results, the researchers will advance Tricor into animal studies.

The hope is that the drug can eventually be included in the list of treatments fast-tracked by the FDA both in the US and Israel.

Apart from that, AbbVie’s HIV treatment Kaletra has been used in China as another form of COVID-19 treatment.

Overall, AbbVie is a great pick among income-seeking investors. It offers a high yield, a promising pipeline and approved products, and a low payout ratio.

AbbVie generated $8.6 billion in revenue during the quarter that threatened to push the world into a recession, demonstrating a 10.1% increase from the same period in 2019. In terms of earnings per share, AbbVie recorded $2.02 in the said period compared to the $1.65 last year.

AbbVie

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-07-30 05:00:222020-08-02 17:03:23AbbVie's Unexpected Upsides
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 23, 2020

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
July 23, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(WHY IT'S OFF TO THE RACES FOR BRISTOL MYERS),
(BMY), (PFE), (GILD), (REGN)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-07-23 11:02:262020-07-23 11:57:14July 23, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Why It’s Off to the Races for Bristol Myers

Biotech Letter

For investors, compounding has long been considered the eighth wonder of the world.

Compounding refers to growing your initial capital over time, boosted by well-timed additions to increase your pool of funds. Warren Buffet calls it “snowballing.”

For compounding to work out, though, it’s important to have a long-term investment plan.

Naturally, the first step to successfully invest is choosing the most suitable stock for your portfolio. Ideally, these businesses should have growth runways set up to thrive in the long run and coupled with clear-cut competitive advantages.

These companies should be able to pay out decent dividends as well since these can later be reinvested to accelerate returns.

Among the companies in the biotechnology and healthcare sector today, Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) fits the bill.

The company’s strengths lie in its oncology and hematology departments, with sales for its pipeline of drug candidates estimated to beat expectations.

With the new drugs in late-stage trials, BMY raised its annual sales forecast to reach somewhere between $15 billion and $20 billion. This number is expected to be sustained over the next 10 years.

Many of BMY’s promising programs came from its Celgene acquisition in November 2019.

While the whopping $74 billion deal faced pushback at first, the merger is expected to yield $2.5 billion in savings for BMY. This offers the company more elbow room to invest in its R&D sector.

BMY is working on combining its cancer drugs Opdivo and Yervoy with Celgene’s top moneymakers Revlimid and Pomalys, effectively transforming the New York-based company into the largest seller of cancer treatments in the world.

Outside its immuno-oncology lineup, BMY is also performing quite well in the cardiovascular field.

Its blockbuster drug Eliquis, which is a collaborative effort with Pfizer (PFE), remains one of the highest-selling treatments among atrial fibrillation patients.

In 2019 alone, Eliquis raked in $7.71 billion in sales. As for its performance this year, this heart disease drug is estimated to add another $1 billion, pushing its 2020 annual sales to $8.79 billion.

So far, 8 of BMY’s drugs available in the market generate over $1 billion in yearly sales. The company also has 9 new products undergoing Phase 3 trials, with more than 20 drugs slated for review in the next 10 years.

For 2020, BMY is projected to earn $41.8 billion in revenue and roughly $6.20 per share compared to $4.69 last year.

BMY is also anticipated to generate over $14 billion in free cash this year. Thanks to its Celgene acquisition, the company’s revenue will experience a one-time jump of about 60%.

For 2021, BMY is expected to report a 7.5% revenue growth to reach $45 billion or $7.33 per share. This is just a conservative estimate though.

BMY is an attractive stock right now.

It’s currently trading at roughly $60. The company has about $136 billion in market capitalization and pays an annual dividend of $1.80 for a yield of 3%.

In the past 5 years, except for a single quarter in 2017, BMY reported positive quarterly earnings growth.

The shares trade for 8.6 times its expected earnings in the next 12 months, which is just ridiculous for a premium stock.

In terms of its long-term earnings per share, the company is expected to report a 9.3% growth rate.

Finding value among the biotechnology and healthcare sector has become increasingly tricky.

Since the pandemic broke, industry stalwarts like Gilead Sciences (GILD) and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) have been receiving constant media attention for their COVID-19 vaccines and treatments. This pushed their valuations to skyrocket.

However, there remain a number of reasonably affordable biotechnology growth stocks.

While these are not making headlines in the fight against COVID-19, these companies offer attractively high long-term earnings-per-share growth rates – and BMY is one of them.

 

bmy

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-07-23 11:00:252020-07-24 15:04:41Why It’s Off to the Races for Bristol Myers
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 10, 2020

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
July 10, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(HOW TO HANDLE THE FRIDAY, JULY 17 OPTIONS EXPIRATION),
(REGN), (ILMN), (SGEN), (JPM)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-07-10 09:04:242020-07-10 09:17:01July 10, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

How to Handle the Friday, July 17 Options Expiration

Diary, Newsletter

Followers of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader alert service have the good fortune to own FOUR deep in-the-money options positions that expire on Friday, July 17, and I just want to explain to the newbies how to best maximize their profits.

These involve the:

Seattle Genetics (SGEN) 7/140-$145 call spread

Illumina (ILMN) 7/$320-$330 call spread

Regeneron (REGN) 7/$570-$580 call spread

JP Morgan Chase (JPM) 7/$80-$85 call spread


Provided that we don’t have another 3,000-point move down in the market by next week, these positions should expire at their maximum profit points.

So far, so good.

I’ll do the math for you on our oldest and least liquid position which I almost certainly will run into expiration. Your profit can be calculated as follows:

Profit: $5.00 expiration value - $4.30 cost = $0.70 net profit

(23 contracts X 100 contracts per option X $0.70 profit per option)

= $1,610 or 16.27% in 18 trading days.

Many of you have already emailed me asking what to do with these winning positions.

The answer is very simple. You take your left hand, grab your right wrist, pull it behind your neck, and pat yourself on the back for a job well done.

You don’t have to do anything.

Your broker (are they still called that?) will automatically use your long position to cover your short position, canceling out the total holdings.

The entire profit will be credited to your account on Monday morning July  20 and the margin freed up.

Some firms charge you a modest $10 or $15 fee for performing this service.

If you don’t see the cash show up in your account on Monday, get on the blower immediately and find it.

Although the expiration process is now supposed to be fully automated, occasionally machines do make mistakes. Better to sort out any confusion before losses ensue.

If you want to wimp out and close the position before the expiration, it may be expensive to do so. You can probably unload them pennies below their maximum expiration value.

Keep in mind that the liquidity in the options market understandably disappears, and the spreads substantially widen, when a security has only hours, or minutes until expiration on Friday, July 17. So, if you plan to exit, do so well before the final expiration at the Friday market close.

This is known in the trade as the “expiration risk.”

One way or the other, I’m sure you’ll do OK, as long as I am looking over your shoulder, as I will be, always. Think of me as your trading guardian angel.

I am going to hang back and wait for good entry points before jumping back in. It’s all about keeping that “Buy low, sell high” thing going.

I’m looking to cherry-pick my new positions going into the next month-end.

Take your winnings and go out and buy yourself a well-earned dinner. Just make sure it’s take-out. I want you to stick around.

Well done, and on to the next trade.

 

 

 

 

You Can’t Do Enough Research

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/john-and-girls.png 322 345 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-07-10 09:02:552020-07-10 09:17:12How to Handle the Friday, July 17 Options Expiration
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 8, 2020

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
July 8, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(TRADING THE BLUE WAVE STOCK MARKET),
(FB), (AAPL), (MSFT), (AMZN), (ADBE), (SQ), (PYPL), (CRM), (SGEN), (REGN), (ILMN) (FEYE), (PANW), (AMD), (MU), (NVDA), (TSLA), (LEN), (PHM), (KBH), (XOM), (CVX), (XOM), (RTN), (NOC), (LMT), (KOL), (X), (GE)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-07-08 09:04:532020-07-08 08:57:08July 8, 2020
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