Global Market Comments
July 17, 2019
Fiat Lux
SPECIAL BIOTECH ISSUE
Featured Trade:
(FIVE BIOTECH STOCKS TO BUY AT THE BOTTOM),
(SPY), (VRTX), (JNJ), (ISRG), (CELG), (BMY), (AMGN), (ILMN)
Global Market Comments
July 17, 2019
Fiat Lux
SPECIAL BIOTECH ISSUE
Featured Trade:
(FIVE BIOTECH STOCKS TO BUY AT THE BOTTOM),
(SPY), (VRTX), (JNJ), (ISRG), (CELG), (BMY), (AMGN), (ILMN)
No sector has been beaten, maligned, and abused more than the biotech sector in recent years. However, some of them are so bad they’ve become good, which piques my interest.
Investing in biotech stocks is not for the faint of heart. The road to developing and commercializing new drugs is long and riddled with hard battles, and an anxious investor won’t be able to sleep at night.
However, the returns offer incredible gains when everything falls into place. In this sector you’re almost buying lottery tickets rather than investing in shares.
In 1919, the term "biotechnology" was coined by a Hungarian agricultural engineer named Karl Ereky to define the merging of two industries: biology and technology. Almost a century later, Ereky's vision has been realized with thousands of products and services available in the biotech market today.
Despite the advancements of this industry though, the majority of the buy-and-hold investors choose to steer clear of biotech stocks -- and for sensible reasons.
It's no secret that investing in biotechnology firms can be unnervingly risky. Since its advent, investors have been regaled with horror stories of costly stage three drug trials going bust or plummeting stock prices due to the expiration of critical patents. Needless to say, these stories have soured would-be investors on the whole biotech world.
However, inadequate information and a lack of understanding of how the biotech industry really operates along with reliance on the performance of only a handful of biotech stocks may have caused investors to miss out on attractive risk-reward relationships. Not all biotech investments lead to disastrous results.
You may be surprised to learn that shares of the biotech industry has collectively gone up by approximately 70% in the past five years. This proves just how much these biotech companies rewarded their enduring. Success in biotech investing is simply a matter of buckling down to do your homework and applying a tad of common sense.
Throughout this decade, one sector has managed to outperform the S&P 500 index (SPY) in terms of total return annually: the healthcare sector. While there's no guarantee that healthcare stocks will go on to beat the S&P 500 in the years to come, the fact remains that people will continue to need medicines as well as healthcare services regardless of the country's economic status. The increasing reliance of the healthcare industry on technology has put the biotech industry smack dab in the center of all these demands.
I’ll give you some of my favorite plays in the sector.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)
Big-cap pharmaceutical company Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc currently has the monopoly on the treatment of cystic fibrosis (CF) with three approved drugs out in the market, Kalydeco, Orkambi, and Symdeko, along with several promising products in the pipeline to target other auto-immune diseases.
In June, Vertex turned its sights on the genetic therapy part of the business via an expansion of its ongoing collaboration with CRISPR Therapeutics (CSPR). Vertex also purchased gene therapy firm Exonics Therapeutics to strengthen its foothold in this revolutionary technology.
Given the spectacular success of Vertex with CF treatments, its work with gene therapy is projected to bring in another blockbuster deal to the company. To ensure its monopoly in the CF market, Vertex has been aggressively seeking additional regulatory approvals to cater to younger CF patients. If the company succeeds, its target market of 75,000 CF patients would gain an additional 44,000.
Vertex is not limiting its efforts in this field though. To seal its position as the leader in CF treatments, the company is looking at developing triple-drug therapies as the next big development in their treatment plans. It has been performing clinical trials on three varying triple-drug combinations. If approved, these therapies would be able to address approximately 90% of the total number of CF patients.
As for the remaining 10% with no operational CF treatment, Vertex aims to address this via its work on gene editing alongside CRISPR Therapeutics. Aside from CF, the two companies have commenced clinical studies on applying gene-editing therapies to treat rare blood diseases and sickle cell disease.
Overall, Vertex is a certified outperformer in the world of big-cap biotech and provides good value to its shareholders.
Johnson & Johnson(JNJ)
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is one of the most attractive names in the biotech space. While the lawsuits against it involving alleged toxic baby powder endanger (JNJ)’s equity, the company is still hailed as one of the most notable innovators in the healthcare ecosystem.
The company recently disclosed its progress in developing an AIDS vaccine. Although the negative headlines about the company can be a cause of concern to some, it could turn out to be a win-win situation for long-term investors who can then take advantage of the bargain basement stock price.
(JNJ) has reinforced its stronghold in the fields of neuroscience, oncology, and immunology with these three areas generating over 72% of the company’s drug sales in the first quarter. In fact, (JNJ) recently received an FDA approval on its myeloma drug Dexamethasone. Its collaborative work on cancer treatment with Celgene’s (CELG) Revlimid and its own Darzalex received the FDA’s green light as well.
Apart from developing new treatments and medications, (JNJ) is also moving forward in the development of its robotic sector. Earlier this year, the company purchased robotic surgery firm Auris Health for $3.4 billion in an effort to dethrone the current sector leader Intuitive Surgical (ISRG).
With all that is in its drug and services pipeline along with its earlier successes, (JNJ) raised its 2019 outlook despite its legal woes. The biopharma giant now anticipates a sales growth of 2.5% to 3.5%. Meanwhile, its adjusted earnings per share now stands somewhere in the range of $8.53 and $8.63 per share.
Celgene (CELG)
Celgene (CELG) is one biotech stock that you can get on the cheap. It offers shares trading at only 7.4 times expected earnings.
With its shares trading well below the total book value courtesy of the pending acquisition by Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), investors would be hard-pressed not to take advantage of the opportunity to add a company leading in the development of treatments for cancer, blood disorders, and immunological conditions.
Aside from the looming acquisition, another reason for Celgene’s dirt-cheap stock involves the decision to sell blockbuster immunology drug Otezla to allow Bristol-Myers Squibb to appease the Federal Trade Commission’s concerns over the deal. Nonetheless, Celgene’s remaining drugs still perform well in the market.
Its blood cancer drugs, Revlimid and Pomalyst, are the leading go-to drug for multiple myeloma. Revlimid has been approved to treat two additional rare blood diseases, myelodysplastic syndromes and mantle cell lymphoma. Another winner in Celgene’s lineup is its solid tumor drug Abraxane, which has been approved for advanced breast cancer treatment along with non-small-cell lung cancer and advanced pancreatic cancer.
Celgene’s pipeline is loaded with promising winners as well, with myelofibrosis drug Fedratinib and multiple sclerosis treatment Ozanimod up for FDA approval this year. Three additional blood disease drugs including Luspatercept are also in the works along with a cell therapy called Liso-cel, which engineers the body’s immune cells to target particular types of cancer. Celgene’s work with Bluebird Bio is expected to bring another cell therapy procedure called bb2121, which is anticipated to bolster the biopharma firm’s dominance on the multiple myeloma market.
Amgen (AMGN)
With its ability to flex its financial muscles at will, Amgen (AMGN) has accumulated nearly $30 billion in cash and investments. In the past four years, it has recorded an average annual net profit of roughly $6 billion.
The company has achieved tremendous success in developing groundbreaking technology and edging out its competition courtesy of its innovative treatments like the post-chemo therapy called Neulasta. Its cholesterol drug Repatha and arthritis medication Enbrel are both impressive performers in the market as well.
Despite its aggressive drive to acquire small biopharma firms, Amgen is actually a pretty safe investment. Throughout the years, the company has made a conscious effort to diversify its portfolio to steer clear of dependence on a single product.
In fact, no single drug provides more than one-fourth of Amgen’s total income. Among its products, only two drugs generate over a tenth of its revenue. This pattern of revenue diversity doesn’t stop here either as Amgen’s pipeline has nine Phase 3 trials and an additional five Phase 2 trials.
Illumina (ILMN)
One of the incredible developments in healthcare involves the unlocking of the secrets of the human genome – and Illumina (ILMN) has been widely recognized as the leader in this field. In fact, this company has performed more than 90% of all gene sequencing procedures ever recorded.
Branded as the “gold standard” for gene sequencing, Illumina’s highly accurate technology has turned the company into one of the leaders in the biotech space. Illumina is projected to dominate the industry for a very long time.
More importantly, Illumina has managed to make these treatments affordable. Using Illumina’s technology, the cost of human genome therapy has been remarkably cut from a staggering $100 million back in 2002 to an affordable $1,000 today.
Despite its potential, Illumina released lower-than-expected revenue guidance for this year. However, its track record indicates that the company has the tendency to underpromise but overdeliver.
Its revolutionary gene sequencing equipment NovaSeq has made remarkable progress since its availability in 2017 and has yet to reach its peak. Illumina has been on the lookout for high-growth markets currently in their infancy in an effort to become a pioneering force in other fields.
A good example of this is Illumina’s move on noninvasive prenatal testing (NIPT), which has recently gained popularity among patients. The company released an updated and more powerful version of its fetal genome detector system VeriSeq this year. This technology offers the quickest processing time compared to its rivals.
Illumina is also looking to utilize gene sequencing to bolster cancer research efforts and screening through its TruSight Oncology 500, which is a molecular test used to detect lung cancer. Since its release in 2018, the company has been seeking ways to expand TruSight’s application to include blood tests capable of detecting the very early stages of several types of cancer.
Another significant growth driver for Illumina is population genomics, with the United States, France, Singapore, England, and other countries already utilizing the company’s technology. Consumer genomics also shows a promising fiscal advancement for Illumina. To date, the company has been catering to major providers including Ancestry and 23andMe. Illumina even created its own genealogical spinoff called Helix.
Global Market Comments
July 15, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND THE FRIDAY, JULY 19 ZERMATT, SWITZERLAND STRATEGY SEMINAR)
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, OR HERE COMES YOUR NEXT HEART ATTACK),
(INDU), (SPY), (TLT), (GLD), (FXA), (USO)
Global Market Comments
July 8, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(STANDBY FOR THE COMING GOLDEN AGE OF INVESTMENT),
(SPY), (INDU), (FXE), (FXY), (UNG), (EEM), (USO),
(TLT), (NSANY), (TSLA)
I believe that the global economy is setting up for a new Golden Age reminiscent of the one the United States enjoyed during the 1950s, and which I still remember fondly.
This is not some pie in the sky prediction.
It simply assumes a continuation of existing trends in demographics, technology, politics, and economics. The implications for your investment portfolio will be huge.
What I call “intergenerational arbitrage” will be the principal impetus. The main reason that we are now enduring two “lost decades” of economic growth is that 80 million baby boomers are retiring to be followed by only 65 million “Gen Xers”.
When the majority of the population is in retirement mode, it means that there are fewer buyers of real estate, home appliances, and “RISK ON” assets like equities, and more buyers of assisted living facilities, health care, and “RISK OFF” assets like bonds.
The net result of this is slower economic growth, higher budget deficits, a weak currency, and registered investment advisors who have distilled their practices down to only municipal bond sales.
Fast forward six years when the reverse happens and the baby boomers are out of the economy, worried about whether their diapers get changed on time or if their favorite flavor of Ensure is in stock at the nursing home.
That is when you have 65 million Gen Xers being chased by 85 million of the “millennial” generation trying to buy their assets.
By then, we will not have built new homes in appreciable numbers for 20 years and a severe scarcity of housing hits. Residential real estate prices will soar. Labor shortages will force wage hikes.
The middle-class standard of living will reverse a then 40-year decline. Annual GDP growth will return from the current subdued 2% rate to near the torrid 4% seen during the 1990s.
The stock market rockets in this scenario.
Share prices may rise very gradually for the rest of the teens as long as tepid 2-3% growth persists.
After that, we could see the same fourfold return we saw during the Clinton administration, taking the Dow to 100,000 by 2030.
If I’m wrong, it will hit 200,000 instead.
Emerging stock markets (EEM) with much higher growth rates do far better.
This is not just a demographic story. The next 20 years should bring a fundamental restructuring of our energy infrastructure as well.
The 100-year supply of natural gas (UNG) we have recently discovered through the new “fracking” technology will finally make it to end users, replacing coal (KOL) and oil (USO).
Fracking applied to oilfields is also unlocking vast new supplies.
Since 1995, the US Geological Survey estimate of recoverable reserves has ballooned from 150 million barrels to 8 billion. OPEC’s share of global reserves is collapsing.
This is all happening while automobile efficiencies are rapidly improving and the use of public transportation soars.
Mileage for the average US car has jumped from 23 to 24.7 miles per gallon in the last couple of years, and the administration is targeting 50 mpg by 2025. Total gasoline consumption is now at a five-year low.
Alternative energy technologies will also contribute in an important way in states like California, accounting for 30% of total electric power generation by 2020.
I now have an all-electric garage with a Nissan Leaf (NSANY) for local errands and a Tesla Model S-1 (TSLA) for longer trips, allowing me to disappear from the gasoline market completely. Millions will follow.
The net result of all of this is lower energy prices for everyone.
It will also flip the US from a net importer to an exporter of energy with hugely positive implications for America’s balance of payments.
Eliminating our largest import and adding an important export is very dollar-bullish for the long term.
That sets up a multiyear short for the world’s big energy consuming currencies, especially the Japanese yen (FXY) and the Euro (FXE). A strong greenback further reinforces the bull case for stocks.
Accelerating technology will bring another continuing positive. Of course, it’s great to have new toys to play with on the weekends, send out Facebook photos to the family, and edit your own home videos.
But at the enterprise level, this is enabling speedy improvements in productivity that is filtering down to every business in the US, lower costs everywhere.
This is why corporate earnings have been outperforming the economy as a whole by a large margin.
Profit margins are at an all-time high.
Living near booming Silicon Valley, I can tell you that there are thousands of new technologies and business models that you have never heard of under development.
When the winners emerge, they will have a big cross-leveraged effect on economy.
New health care breakthroughs will make serious disease a thing of the past which are also being spearheaded in the San Francisco Bay area.
This is because the Golden State thumbed its nose at the federal government ten years ago when the stem cell research ban was implemented.
It raised $3 billion through a bond issue to fund its own research even though it couldn’t afford it.
I tell my kids they will never be afflicted by my maladies. When they get cancer in 20 years, they will just go down to Wal-Mart and buy a bottle of cancer pills for $5, and it will be gone by Friday.
What is this worth to the global economy? Oh, about $2 trillion a year, or 4% of GDP. Who is overwhelmingly in the driver’s seat on these innovations? The USA.
There is a political element to the new Golden Age as well. Gridlock in Washington can’t last forever. Eventually, one side or another will prevail with a clear majority.
This will allow the government to push through needed long-term structural reforms, the solution of which everyone agrees on now, but nobody wants to be blamed for.
That means raising the retirement age from 66 to 70 where it belongs, and means-testing recipients. Billionaires don’t need the maximum $30,156 annual supplement. Nor do I.
The ending of our foreign wars and the elimination of extravagant unneeded weapons systems cut defense spending from $800 billion a year to $400 billion, or back to the 2000, pre-9/11 level. Guess what happens when we cut defense spending? So does everyone else.
I can tell you from personal experience that staying friendly with someone is far cheaper than blowing them up.
A Pax Americana would ensue.
That means China will have to defend its own oil supply, instead of relying on us to do it for them for free. That’s why they have recently bought a second used aircraft carrier. The Middle East is now their headache.
The national debt then comes under control, and we don’t end up like Greece.
The long-awaited Treasury bond (TLT) crash never happens.
The reality is that the global economy is already spinning off profits faster than it can find places to invest them, so the money ends up in bonds instead.
Sure, this is all very long-term, over the horizon stuff. You can expect the financial markets to start discounting a few years hence, even though the main drivers won’t kick in for another decade.
But some individual industries and companies will start to discount this rosy scenario now.
Perhaps this is what the nonstop rally in stocks since 2009 has been trying to tell us.
Global Market Comments
June 17, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or THE SCARY THING ABOUT THE MARKETS)
(SPY), (TLT), (GLD), (TSLA)
There’s one big scary thing about the markets right now. As I mentioned last week, the major indexes are sitting on a precipice of a right shoulder of a ‘Head and Shoulders” top.
Traders are expecting a trade war settlement and a Fed interest rate cut in July. While the economy in no way needs a rate cut, stock markets desperately do. In fact, they need another dose of steroids just to remain level. It reminds me of a certain recent California governor (I’ll be back).
If we get them, markets will grind up a few percentage points to a new all-time high. If we don’t, the top is in, possibly for this entire economic cycle, and a 25% swan dive is in the cards.
It's what traders call “Asymmetric risk.” If we get the bull case, you make sofa change. If we don’t, you lose dollars. It’s what I call picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. But in the 11th year of a bull market, that’s all you get. The truly disturbing part of this is that this setup is happening with valuation close to a historic high at a 17.5X price earnings multiple.
We’ll get a better read on Wednesday at 2:00 PM EST when the Fed announces its decision on interest rates. The post meeting statement will be more crucial than usual. What’s in a word, Shakespeare might have asked? If the Fed drops the word “Patient”, then a July interest rate cut is a sure thing. The algos reading the release at the speed of light will be the first to know.
It was initially off to the races last Monday when the one-week trade war with Mexico came to an end and some immigration issues were settled.
The tariffs are off, even though the Mexicans say the terms were already agreed to months ago.
There is no big ag buy either. The economy is still sliding into a recession, and the bond market has already discounted three of the next five quarter point rate cuts.
US exports are in free fall, with Long Beach, America’s busiest port, seeing seven straight months of declines in shipping volumes. They were off 19.5% in May alone. Recession indicator no. 199.
Buy bonds (TLT), gold (GLD), and short the US dollar (UUP), says my old friend, hedge fund legend Paul Tudor Jones. He is certainly reading the writing on the wall. The legendary trading billionaire believes that plunging interest rate cuts are going to dominate the scenery for the rest of 2019.
Tanker attacks sent oil soaring. After 50 years of waiting, it finally happened, torpedo attacks against two tankers in the Straits of Hormuz bound for China. Oil rocketed 4%, then gave up the rally, and stocks are amazingly up on the day.
Go figure. A decade ago, this would have been a down 1,000-point day for stocks and Texas tea would have soared to $100. Clearly, tensions in the Middle East are ratcheting up, but with the US now the swing oil producer, why bother?
With US oil production climbing to 17 million barrels a day by 2024, up from 5 million b/d in 2005, the Middle East can blow itself up and nobody cares. The US by then will have created an entire Saudi Arabia’s worth of new oil production over a 20-year period. US troops there are defending China’s oil supply, not ours.
The US budget deficit soared by 38.7% YOY, to $739 billion. It’s the fastest growth in government borrowing since WWII. Much of today’s economic growth in on credit and this can only end in tears. Enjoy the good times while they last.
Major semiconductor maker Broadcom (AVGO) disappointed hugely on earnings, tanking the market, and the stock plunged a heartbreaking 12%. The trade war gets the entire blame. It turns out that Broadcom’s biggest customer is the ill-fated Huawei whose CFO is now sitting in a Canadian jail awaiting extradition to the US. Other semiconductor stocks especially got slammed. The canary in the coal mine just died.
China’s industrial production hit a 17 year low, and yes, it’s because of the trade war, trade war, trade war. When your biggest customers come down with the Asian flu, you at the very least catch a severe cold. Start shopping for Robitussin.
Global Trading Dispatch closed the week up 15.38% year-to-date and is down by -0.34% so far in June. That’s show business. You work your guts out trying to understand this market and it turns out to be for free. Or worse yet, you get a bill without an amount due. This is something that regular salary earners don’t understand.
My nine and a half year profit appreciated to +315.52%, pennies short of a new all-time high. I think I’ll be flatlining at a high for a while to create a base from which I can jump to new highs. The average annualized return ticked up to +33.21%. With the trade war with China raging, I am now 100% in cash with Global Trading Dispatch and 100% cash in the Mad Hedge Tech Letter.
My twin bets on Tesla (TSLA) worked out very nicely and I took profits on both. It was an option play whereby I expected that (TSLA) shares would not fall below $150 or rise above $240 by the June 21 option expiration.
Several followers have seen good success using every Tesla dip below $200 to go naked short August $100 or $125 Tesla puts in small quantities for a decent amount of change.
The long view here is to wait for some kind of summer meltdown and then go long into a year-end rally as 2020 election-related turbochargers start to hit the market.
The coming week will be all about waiting for the Fed to jump. We also get some important updates on housing data.
On Monday, June 17 at 8:30 AM EST the Empire State Manufacturing Index is out.
On Tuesday, June 18, 8:30 AM EST, the May Housing Starts are released.
On Wednesday, June 19 at 2:00 PM EST, the Federal Reserve decision on interest rates is announced. Vital is whether the word “Patient” remains in their statement.
On Thursday, June 20 at 8:30 AM, the Weekly Jobless Claims are printed. We also get the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.
On Friday, June 21 at 10:00 AM, we learn May Existing Home Sales. The Baker Hughes Rig Count follows at 2:00 PM.
As for me, by the time you read this, I will be winging my way somewhere over the Pacific Ocean. It’s a 14-hour flight from California to New Zealand, and the plane carries two crews.
It’s a genuine four movie flight. I’ll take off on Sunday and don’t arrive until Tuesday because I’ll be crossing the International Dateline. When I arrive, I’ll feel like death warmed over. It’s all in the name of research and finding that next great trading idea.
Good luck and good trading.
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
Global Market Comments
June 4, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WEDNESDAY, JUNE 26 SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(TEN UGLY MESSAGES FROM THE BOND MARKET),
(TLT), (TBT), (USO), (GLD), (GS), (SPY)
Global Market Comments
June 3, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MONDAY, JUNE 24 MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, OR WHAT A WASTE OF TIME!),
(SPY), ($INDU), (JPM), (MSFT), (AMZN), (TSLA)
Global Market Comments
May 24, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MONDAY JULY 8 VENICE, ITALY GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(FROM THE FRONT LINE OF THE TRADE WAR)
(SPY), (AAPL), (TLT)
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