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Tag Archive for: (TLT)

MHFTF

The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or Our Hard Landing Back on Earth

Diary, Newsletter

Truth be told, it’s the really boring, sedentary, go-nowhere markets that drive me nuts, cause me to tear my hair out, and urge me on to an early retirement.

The week started with such promise.

Sunday night I witnessed the first Space X landing of a rocket in California which I could clearly see from the top of Berkeley’s Grizzly Peak some 250 miles away. It was fascinating to see four separate jets steer the spacecraft earthward.

Financial markets had a different landing in mind, the hard kind, if not a crash.

I absolutely love the market we had last week which saw the third biggest down day in history, volatility explode, and $2.6 trillion in stock market capitalization vaporize.

I had to blink when I saw NASDAQ (QQQ) down an incredible 350 points in one day. My Mad Hedge Market Timing Index hit an all-time low at 4.

No wonder insider selling hit $10.3 billion in August, another record. Maybe they know something we don’t.

Chinese Gamer Tencent Postponed their US IPO. It seems they noticed that market conditions had become unfavorable. I know investment bankers hate passing on an opportunity to ring the cash register. I used to be one.

There is no better feeling than being 100% cash going into one of these crashes and then having panicked investors puke their best quality positions to me at a market bottom.

On Thursday, I backed up the truck and issued four perfectly timed Trade Alerts, picking up Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), and the S&P 500 (SPY), and covering my short position in the bond market (TLT).

In fact, I believe I had my best week of the year even though I only added modestly to my annual return. Look at the charts below and you’ll see that I suffered a 9% drawdown during the February meltdown. Maybe I’m getting wiser as I get older? One can only hope.

This time, I managed to limit my loss to a modest 2.5% and am nearly unchanged on the month despite the Dow Average at one point nearly giving up all its gains for 2018. This is also against a horrific backdrop of hedge fund performance that is now showing losses for 2018.

The Volatility Index (VIX) made a move for the ages, at one point kissing the $29 handle, up from $11 two weeks ago. During the 600-point swoosh down on Thursday, I couldn’t get any of my staff on the phone. The entire company was logged into their personal trading accounts, buying puts on the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX) as fast as they could.

Which leads me to believe that the bottom is near. Earnings and valuation support start kicking in big time at these levels, and the blackout period for company share buybacks started ending with the bank earnings last Friday.

When you take a $1 trillion buyer out of the market, it has a huge effect no matter how strong the fundamentals are. Start buying those dips. Their return is similarly eventful. I’ve already started to invest my 95% cash position.

Further eroding confidence was the president’s statement that the Federal Reserve is crazy. So, now we know the president appoints crazy people to the most important financial positions in the country. White House control of interest rates ahead of elections. Why didn’t I think of that?

Sparking the Friday melt-up was a statement by JP Morgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Diamond saying that a 40-basis point rise in rates is no big deal. The bull market is on. His earnings beat all expectations.

My 2018 year-to-date performance has bounced back to 27.56%, and my trailing one-year return stands at 35.87%. October is almost flat at -0.84%. Most people will take that in these horrific conditions.

My nine-year return appreciated to 304.03%. The average annualized return stands at 34.41%.

This coming week will be pretty sedentary on the data front.

Monday, October 15 at 8:30 AM brings us September Retail Sales.

On Tuesday, October 16 at 9:15 AM, September Industrial Production is announced.

On Wednesday, October 17 at 8:30 AM, September Housing Starts are published.

Thursday, October 18 at 8:30, we get Weekly Jobless Claims. At 10:00 we learne the September Index of Leading Economic Indicators.

On Friday, October 19, at 10:00 AM, the September Housing Starts are out. The Baker-Hughes Rig Count follows at 1:00 PM.

As for me, I will spend this week on my Southeastern US roadshow, giving strategy luncheons in Savannah, GA, Atlanta, GA, Miami, FL, and Houston, TX. I love meeting my readers mano a mano who are often a source of my best trading ideas. It looks like I’ll miss Hurricane Michael by three days.

Good luck and good trading.

John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Off to Lunch

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/John-Thomas-on-a-camel.png 454 470 MHFTF https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTF2018-10-15 09:03:382018-10-15 08:11:07The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or Our Hard Landing Back on Earth
MHFTF

October 8, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
October 8, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(A LONG-AWAITED BREATHER IN TECHNOLOGY),
(AMZN), (TGT), (NVDA), (SQ), (AMD), (TLT)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTF https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTF2018-10-08 09:02:312018-10-05 18:01:24October 8, 2018
MHFTF

A Long-Awaited Breather in Technology

Tech Letter

Taking profits - it was finally time.

The Nasdaq has been hit in the mouth the last few days and rightly so.

It was the best quarter in equities for five years, and a quarter that saw tech comprise up to a quarter of the S&P demonstrating searing strength.

It would be an understatement to say that tech did its part to drive stocks higher.

Tech shares have pretty much gone up in a straight line this year aside from the February meltdown.

Even that blip only caused Amazon (AMZN) to slide around 10%.

After all the terrible macro news thrown on the market in spades – tech stocks held their own.

Not even a global trade war with the second biggest economy in the world which is critical to exporting products to America was able to knock tech shares off their perch.

At some point, 26% earnings growth cannot sustain itself, and even though the tech narrative is still intact, investors need to breathe.

Let’s get this straight – tech companies are doing great.

They benefit from a secular tailwind with every business pivoting to mobile and software services.

All that new business has infused and invigorated total revenue.

The negative reaction by technology stocks was based on two pieces of news.

Interest rates (TLT) surging to over 3.2% was the first piece of news.

The increase in rates reinforces that the economy is humming along at a breakneck speed.

Yields are going up for the right reasons and this economy is not a sick one indeed.

As rates rise, other asset classes become more attractive such as CD’s and bonds.

The whole world is looking at the pace of rate rises because this will affect the ability for tech behemoths to borrow money to invest in their expensive well-oiled machines.

Three things are certain - the economy is hot, the smart money is buying on the dip now, and Amazon will still take over your home.

Even in a rising rate environment, Amazon is fully positioned to outperform.

The second catalyst to this correction was Amazon’s decision to hike its minimum wage to $15 per hour.

This could lay the path for workers around the country to demand higher pay.

The move was a misnomer as it will eliminate stock awards and monthly bonuses lessening the burden that Amazon actually has to dole out.

Call this a push – the rise in expenses won’t be material and realistically, Amazon can afford to push the wage bill by another order of magnitude, even though they will not.

This was also a way for Amazon founder Jeff Bezos to keep Washington off his back for a few months, and his generous decision was praised by government officials.

The wage hike underscores the strength of the ebullient American economy, and the consumer will benefit by recycling their wages back into Amazon and the wider economy.

Amazon makes up 50% of American e-commerce sales, and when workers are buying goods online, a good chance its coming from Amazon.

In an environment of full employment, the natural direction of wages is up, and this was due to happen.

You can also look at wage inflation as employees gaining at the expense of the corporation.

However, the massive deflationary trends of technology will also make this wage hike quite irrelevant over time as Amazon will automate more of their supply chain to make up for any wage hike that could damage revenue.

Amazon’s economies of scale give the Seattle-based company enough levers and buttons to push and pull to dilute expenses to make this a non-issue.

Each earnings call usually involves CFO of Amazon Brian Olsavsky explaining the acceleration of efficiencies in fulfilment centers bolstering the bottom line.

The stellar innovation in operational expertise moves up a level each quarter if not two levels.

Ultimately, though expensive on the surface, this won’t affect Amazon’s numbers at all, but more critically please the lower tier of workers who fight and scratch for their daily crust of bread.

This win-win scenario casts a positive image of Bezos in the public eye at a crucial time when he plans to recruit another legion of Amazon workers, as Amazon will shortly announce the location of their second American-based headquarter.

In fact, this turns the screws on the smaller retailers who must match the $15 per hour wage or confront a potential disaster of an entire workforce walking out and joining Amazon.

The mysterious Amazon-effect works in many shapes and sizes.

Big retailers like Target (TGT) have griped that it’s near impossible to find seasonal workers for the upcoming holiday season.

Moreover, if inflation remains moderate but contained – technology will power on.

And it will take more than a few prints of rising inflation to impress the Fed enough to expedite the raising of rates.

But it is safe to say that investors cannot expect the 100% up moves like in Amazon and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) in one calendar year moving forward.

Technology has a plate full of challenges facing its share price as we move into the latter part of the fiscal year.

The challenges are two-fold - mid-term elections and navigating a smooth year-end.

Earnings should be good which is already baked into the pie, and the benefits of the tax cut have already worked itself through the system.

The furious pace of share buybacks will eventually subside too.

Management might finally bring out the spin doctors claiming the stronger dollar and worsening trade war is the reason to guide down.

At least tech companies doing business in China might follow this playbook.

Either way, tech shares are demonstrably sensitive right now and while the market needs tech to lead the way, the sector is exhausted from the burden of carrying the bulk of the load.

Freak-outs on rate surges have been a common experience for those old hands presiding over markets for decades.

These are all the staples of a 9th year bull market.

Typical late stage topping action is normal in economic cycles.

After the dust settles, the overreaction will give way to great buying opportunities at great prices, albeit it in the higher quality names.

The chip sector is still one to avoid unless the names are Advanced Micro Devices or Nvidia (NVDA).

Legacy companies have always been a no-go.

If you want hyper-growth, fin-tech name Square (SQ) would be an ideal candidate.

If buy and hold is your cup of tea, any 10% discount would be a great entry point in any of these quality companies.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTF https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTF2018-10-08 09:01:022018-10-05 18:18:10A Long-Awaited Breather in Technology
MHFTF

October 5, 2018

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 5, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 17 HOUSTON STRATEGY LUNCHEON INVITATION),
(OCTOBER 3 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A)
(SPY), (VIX), (VXX), (MU), (LRCX), (NVDA), (AAPL), (GOOG), (XLV), (USO), (TLT), (AMD), (LMT), (ACB), (TLRY), (WEED)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTF https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTF2018-10-05 09:03:392018-10-05 08:50:50October 5, 2018
MHFTF

October 3 Biweekly Strategy Webinar Q&A

Diary, Newsletter

Below please find subscribers’ Q&A for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader October 3 Global Strategy Webinar with my guest and co-host Bill Davis of the Mad Day Trader.

As usual, every asset class long and short was covered. You are certainly an inquisitive lot, and keep those questions coming!

Q: Will the market keep increasing for the rest of the year?

A: We haven’t had the pullback yet, so the short answer is yes. My yearend target of and S&P 500 (SPY) for the end of 2018 still stands. You can’t argue with the immediate price action. That said, the market is wildly overbought for the medium term and is approaching valuation levels we haven’t seen since the Dotcom peak in 2000. That why I am running a 70% cash trading book now.

Q: Should I be buying the Volatility Index (VIX) here?

A: Look at the bottom where we broke back in August, if we go down there and sit for a couple of days, then go out and buy the March 2019 $40 iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX) calls—way out of the money, way far in the future—and that way if you get any bounce in the (VIX) in the next 6 months, you’ll make a ton of money on that. You can buy them today for 50 cents. Plus, we could get one of these situations where there’s a major selloff once we’re into the new year, so a 6-month (VXX) call option would hedge that.

Q: Given the choice of Apple (AAPL) or Google (GOOG), which would you buy?

A: If you’re a conservative, old lady, widow and orphan type, you’d probably want to buy Apple— it’s almost turned into a utility, it’s so reliably safe, going up and has a nice dividend. If you want to be aggressive, swinging for the fences young stud and are looking for a double, I would go with Google—much higher growth pattern, pays no dividend and has had a 3-month consolidation going sideways. The only thing that could hurt this company would be government regulation, but with the Democrats possibly taking control of Congress in November, the prospect of government regulation of the entire technology sector could rapidly fade away.

Q: When should I get into Health Care (XLV)?

A: I think you have to wait at this point. To me, it’s tremendously overbought at the moment, but is still enjoying a long-term bull move. This is one of my two favorite sectors in the entire market. It has been rising for four months now, even though the Trump threat of price cuts are constantly overhanging the market.

Q: Is oil (USO) going to 100?

A: Because of the disruptions caused by the Iran sanctions and the tearing up of the Iran Nuclear Treaty, Trump has created a short squeeze in oil prices. He is threatening to boycott any country that buys oil from Iran, so Iran is shipping their oil through China, which is already under sanctions itself. However, that is easier said than done. The oil business is much more complicated than people realize. For China to take Iranian oil, they literally have to build new refineries from scratch to process the crude from Iran; no two crudes are alike. When you build a major supply, you have to build refineries to match that, and you have to get it there. This market will eventually stabilize, but in the meantime, there is a big short squeeze going on in Europe.

Q: Do you see the economy going strong into the end of the year?

A: Yes, I do—we still have the tax cuts, global liquidity, and deregulation kicking in, and those things will all work until the end of the year. I think we close at the highs of the year, and after that we’re going to have to start to work hard for our money once again in 2019. The US economy is like a supertanker; it takes a long time to turn it around.

Q: Will the interest rate spike kill the market?

You think? Investors are so used to ultra-low interest rates that a transition to normal rates will be traumatic. Next Friday, we get Core CPI, and if that comes in hot we could see another spike to 3.35% in the ten-year US Treasury bond (TLT). There are now a ton of people desperate to get out of their bond holdings at last week’s prices. This is why I have been selling short the bond market for the past three years and selling as recently as Monday. The next leg down in a 30-year bear market has begun.

Q: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has shot over $30—would you sell it?

A: We love the company long term but short term it is just way overdone; take the double and run, and then buy back on the next dip.

Q: Are you still bearish on the chip company?

A: Short term yes, long term no. This sector is now totally driven by the trade war with China. This includes NVIDIA (NVDA), Micron Technology (MU) and LAM Research (LRCX). Lam is particularly exposed because they had ordered to sell ten entire chip factories to China which is now on hold. That said, the day the trade way ends these stocks will all start a 50% run up. If China gets the same free pass and symbolic treaty that Canada did, that could happen sooner than later. If you can’t sleep at night until then, cut your position in half. If you still can’t sleep, cut it again.

Q: Do you think Lockheed Martin (LMT) is a buy Here at $350?

A: No, there is a double top risk for the stock right here. And if the Democrats get control of congress, the whole Trump trade could unwind. That would give the opposition the purse strings and the first thing they’ll do is cut defense spending, which Trump bumped up by $50 billion.

Q: Do you have any views on pot stocks like Aurora Cannabis (ACB), Tilray (TLRY) and (WEED)?

Stay away in droves. They’re this year’s bitcoin stocks. It’s still illegal. That’s why these companies are all based in Canada. And after all it’s a weed. How hard is it to grow? The barriers to entry are zero.

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/John-Thomas-old-pic.png 404 302 MHFTF https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTF2018-10-05 09:01:422018-10-04 16:34:00October 3 Biweekly Strategy Webinar Q&A
MHFTF

October 4, 2018

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 4, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(TUESDAY OCTOBER 16 MIAMI GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(BONDS FINALLY BREAK TWO-YEAR RANGE),
(TLT), (TBT), ($TNX)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTF https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTF2018-10-04 09:03:302018-10-03 20:13:24October 4, 2018
MHFTF

Bonds Finally Break Two Year-Range

Diary, Newsletter

I love executing one day wonders.

Since we sold short the US Treasury bond market on Monday, it has plunged a stunning 3 points. Bond yields just performed a rare 10 basis point move up to 3.18%. You usually only see that during a major “RISK OFF” geopolitical event or financial crisis.

You could see all of the key support levels failing like a hot knife for butter. The next support for the United States Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) is now at $111, or some 2.5 points down from here, pointing to a 3.25% yield for the ten-year bond.

My yearend forecast of a ten-year yield of 3.25% and a one-year target of 4.0% is alive and well.

The break marks an important departure from a stubborn two-year trading range….to the downside.

As with major breaks there is not a single a data point that broke the camel’s back. It could have been the agreement to NAFTA 2.0 on Monday or the blistering hot ISM Services print at a 21-year high on Wednesday.

Rather, it has been a steady death by a thousand cuts spread over several points that did it. It was just a matter of time before a 4.2% GDP growth rate crushed the fixed income market.

If I had to point to one single thing that triggered this debacle, it would be Amazon’s (AMZN) decision to give a 25% raise to its 250,000 US employees to $15 an hour.

If Wal-Mart (WMT), McDonald’s (MCD), or Target (TGT) have to resort to the same, you could have a serious outbreak of inflation on 2019. Imagine that, a bidding war for minimum wage workers.

 ALL of those costs will be passed on to us, which is highly inflationary, and bonds absolutely HATE inflation.

Other than giving us boasting rights, the bond market move carries several important messages for us.

Money is about to start transferring from borrowers to savers in a major way. You won’t hear about seniors unable to live off of their savings anymore, a common refrain of the past decade.

Cash is now offering a serious competitor to bond and equity investments. And the next recession and bear market have just been moved closer.

The rocketing US budget deficit is starting to bear its bitter fruit as the government is starting to crowd out private sector borrowers. The budget deficit should be running at a $1 trillion annualized rate by the end of this year.

All of you celebrating your windfall tax cuts are getting a sharp reminder that the money has been entirely borrowed, some 40% from foreign bond investors we have been attacking. It will have to be paid back some time.

Of course, we all knew this was coming. It is no accident that the most capital-intensive industries in the country, also the heaviest borrowers, have seen the worst stock performance of 2018 including real estate, REITS, steel, and autos. Their profit margins have all just been seriously chopped.

So, what to do about the bond market now that we have begun the next leg in a 30-year bear market? For a start, don’t sell. Rather, wait for the next rally back up to the old support level at $116. It should revisit the old support level at least once.

When it does, SELL WITH BOTH HANDS.

I Just Love That 25% Wage Hike

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Factory-worker.png 233 447 MHFTF https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTF2018-10-04 09:01:072018-10-03 20:12:54Bonds Finally Break Two Year-Range
MHFTR

September 28, 2018

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
September 28, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(WHAT WILL TRIGGER THE NEXT BEAR MARKET?)
(JPM), (SNE), (TLT), (ELD), (AMZN),
(WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 17, 2018, HOUSTON
GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-09-28 01:08:262018-09-27 22:08:27September 28, 2018
MHFTR

What Will Trigger the Next Bear Market?

Diary, Newsletter, Research

To paraphrase Leo Tolstoy in Anna Karenina, all bull markets are alike; each bear market takes place for its own particular reasons.

Now that the wreckage of the past financial crises is firmly in our rearview mirror, it is time for us to start pondering the causes of the next one. I’ll give you a hint: It will all boil down to excessive debt…again.

Global quantitative easing has been going on for a decade now, keeping interest rates far too low for too long. The unintended consequences will be legion, and the day of atonement may be a lot closer than you think.

The 1991 bear market was prompted by the Savings & Loan Crisis, where too many unsophisticated financial institutions in a newly unregulated world dreadfully mismatched asset and liabilities.

Every time I drive by a former Home Savings and Loan branch, with its unmistakable quilt decorations and accents, I remember those frightful days. Back then, when I looked at buying a home in San Francisco, the seller burst into tears when the price I offered would have generated a negative equity bill due for him.

The 2000 Dotcom crash can easily be explained by the monstrous amounts of debt provided to stock speculators. The 2008 crash was produced by massive, unregulated, and largely unknown lending to the housing sector through complex derivatives that virtually no one understood, especially the buyers.

So, here we are in 2018 nearly a decade out of the last crisis. Potential disasters are lurking everywhere under the surface while blinder constrained investors blithely power ahead. Once they metastasize, they rapidly feed into each other, creating a domino effect. They always do.

Emerging Market Debt

Lacking domestic capital markets with any real depth, companies in emerging economies prefer to borrow in U.S. dollars. When the dollar is weak that’s great because it means liabilities on the balance sheet shrink when brought back into the home currency. When the greenback is strong, the opposite happens. Dollar debt can grow so large that it can wipe out a company’s total equity.

This is already happening in a major way in Turkey, where the lira has plunged 50% in the past year, effectively doubling their debt. And once it starts, a global contagion kicks in as all emerging companies become suspect. This is not a small problem. Emerging market debt has rocketed from 55% to 105% of GDP since 2008.

The Rise of Junk Borrowers

In recent years there has been a massive expansion in borrowing by marginal credits. This is taking place because fixed income investors are willing to accept a large increase in the amount of risk for only a small marginal rise in interest rates.

There is now $1.4 trillion in low grade BBB bonds outstanding, with one-third of this one downgrade away from junk. There has also been a dramatic rise in “covenant lite” issuance, which minimizes the rights of bond holders in the event of default. When the next round of trouble arrives, you can expect this market to shut down completely, as it did in 2008.

Student Loans

These have been the sharpest rising form of borrowing over the past decade, doubling to $1.5 trillion. Some 10% are now in default. This acts as a major drag on the economy as heavily indebted students don’t borrow, buy homes or cars, or really participate in the economy in any way, banned by lowly FICO scores. This is why millennials in general have been slow to enter the housing market for the first time.

Shadow Banking

Would you like to know today’s equivalent of subprime the lending that took the financial system down in 2008? That would be shadow banking, or off the books, unreported lending by hedge funds, private equity funds, and mortgage companies. Again, this is all in pursuit of high interest rates in a low interest rate world.

Yes, liars’ loans are back, just not to the extent we saw 10 years ago…yet. I’m waiting for my cleaning lady to get offered a great refi package again, just as she was in the run-up to the last crisis. How many of these loans are out there? No one has any idea, especially the Fed. As a result, nearly 50% of all mortgage lending is now from unregulated nonbank sources.

The Outlier

Remember when Sony (SNE) was almost put out of business by a hack attack from North Korea? What if they had done this to JP Morgan (JPM)? That would have created a chain reaction of defaults throughout the financial system that would have been impossible to stop. When this happened in 2008, it took the Fed three months to reopen markets such as commercial paper. If big bankers need a reason to lie awake at night, this is it.

I’m not saying that markets can’t go higher before they go lower. In fact, I dove back into Amazon (AMZN) only this morning.

However, as an Australian farmer told me on my last trip down under, “Be careful when you cross the field, mate. Deadly snakes abound.” Add up all the above and it will turn into a giant headache for investors everywhere.

 

 

 

 

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/turkish-image-2-e1538085256898.jpg 225 580 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-09-28 01:07:542018-09-27 22:07:11What Will Trigger the Next Bear Market?
MHFTR

September 24, 2018

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
September 24, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or IT’S FED WEEK),
(SPY), (XLI), (XLV), (XLP), (XLY), (HD), (LOW), (GS), (MS), (TLT),
(UUP), (FXE), (FCX), (EEM), (VIX), (VXX), (UPS), (TGT)
(TEN TIPS FOR SURVIVING A DAY OFF WITH ME)

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