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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Zuck Losing His Midas Touch

Tech Letter

It’s gotten so bad at Facebook’s Menlo Park headquarters that to attract high-level talent, they have to overpay by almost 5 times.

That’s how unattractive it is to work for Facebook now – almost a permanent stain on one’s resume.

It was just only a few years ago when Facebook or Meta (META) was the go-to growth story in upcoming technology, and its business model, which is still quite profitable, launched them into a trillion-dollar company.

Every Stanford MBA student was clamoring to get into the company at almost any cost. It was a blue chip tech company.

That was then and this is now.

Poor management has started to spiral out of control and that starts from the top down where co-founder and current CEO Mark Zuckerberg is notorious for being a difficult boss to work for.

He is also unfirable because he owns 51% of voting rights and rules with an iron fist like a Russian tsar.

Pouring sand on the fresh wound, Facebook has announced future job cuts for the first time in its history as a company. Might as well go out in style.

The trillion-dollar company that was once unstoppable is now shrinking its headcount to cut costs, an almost unimaginable situation just a few months ago.  

This management move is essentially a mea culpa signaling that business decisions have been atrocious.  

The flagship product Facebook is pretty much unusable now which is part of the multi-pronged problem.

It’s filled with so much chaos because every high-priced software engineer has attempted to put their stamp on the product by installing additional “improvements.”

The interface is now as convoluted as ever and things just get in the way.

Much like Microsoft word, it’s a software product that transcends time which is why I use Microsoft Word 2010. It also doesn’t force me to upload and save my Word document to Microsoft’s Cloud like the new iteration.

Facebook is the same, better as a slimmed-down simplified version, but that doesn’t boost short-term revenue.

Even if short-term capitalism gets in the way, it doesn’t deny the fact that competition has reared its ugly head and Zuckerberg and Facebook are flat-out losing.

The Chinese communist party-sponsored TikTok is the competitor and is hot with the young crowd with its short-form videos.

TikTok is securing market share from Facebook and Instagram while Zuckerberg pivots to virtual reality in the form of the metaverse.

Zuckerberg’s expensive shift to the metaverse also appears to be a failure which could turn out to be Zuckerberg digging his own Facebook grave.

The most successful metaverse platforms already exist in 2D, with Roblox Corp. (RBLX) and Epic Games Inc.’s Fortnight.

Success has been achieved in the form of regular users with incentives around building and sharing experiences.

Meta has instead focused on the immersive sensation of its virtual reality products, which isn’t all that appealing.

Overpaying software developers because the platform has fallen out of favor is a red flag.

Now, Meta has more red flags than a Chinese communist parade.

Meta now has a $360 billion valuation and the US economy, its biggest revenue driver, is facing a 2023 recession.

The upcoming recession is what first prompted the job cuts, but I believe this will trigger something more cynical in the form of gross underperformance of Meta’s business model and another leg down in its story.

We are inching to the point where Meta will need to perform backflips to turn around the titanic because nothing on the horizon suggests they have anything figured out.

The metaverse – not a solution.

Sell all rallies during the period of high-interest rates.

Meta clearly cannot solve the current challenges that are deteriorating by the day.      

 

meta

 

meta

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 3, 2022 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“I'd rather Apple cannibalize Apple than somebody else cannibalize Apple.” – Said CEO of Apple Tim Cook

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/tim-cook-apr3.png 243 239 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-10-03 16:00:272022-10-03 17:26:19October 3, 2022 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

September 30, 2022

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
September 30, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(CARVANA ISN’T NIRVANA)
(CVNA), (KMX), (TSLA)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-09-30 13:04:452022-09-30 16:01:52September 30, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Carvana Isn't Nirvana

Tech Letter

Avoid Carvana (CVNA) stock.

Don’t expect a quick reversal in this digital used-car dealer after the car buying frenzy over the past couple of years.

Why?

We have reached the high water mark in American automobile sales setting up a sharp cliff edge as increasingly, US consumers are either priced out of buying a new used car or have decided to drastically cut back discretionary spending on larger items.

This has sent shockwaves for used car retailer CarMax (KMX) whose stock cratered by 24% and our tech play derivative CVNA who dropped 20% when CarMax’s poor earnings report came out. The price action of these two stocks mirrors each other.

Remember that stocks are forward pricing mechanisms and not backwards to the detriment of these two stocks. 

KMX and CVNA are inextricably linked and offer deep insights into the state of each other’s companies.

In a quite damaging earnings report, CarMax was able to increase its gross profit per vehicle by boosting its average vehicle sales price. That’s about all that went right. This appears more like a one-off.

Carvana has a history of overpaying for supply during the boom of used car sales over the past few years.

The numbers are clearly working against CVNA.

Even more worrisome, CVNA is facing an uncertain and rapidly deteriorating macroeconomic environment moving forward.

The data bodes ill for future earnings reports as US consumers abruptly pull back on spending especially at the middle-class to lower income levels.

Just as precarious, many in the middle class to lower echelon prefer to secure automobile loans to finance a new used car purchase.

With interest rate yields exploding to the upside, it sets the stage for not only mass automobile loan delinquency and nonpayment, but it also prices out new car shoppers by making the monthly payment too exorbitant.

There will be few buyers using bank financing to get that new used car they have always wanted. And what non-rich person has a car’s worth of cash lying around these days?

At the ground level, things are bleak.

US consumers are increasingly prioritizing paying the utility and food bills over upgrading, upsizing, or even styling their used cars.

For most US consumers, a brand new car sits in the realm of fantasy as the prices of new cars surge because of high input, logistical, and manufacturing costs. A fresh car from the factory is now a luxury many can’t afford which is why many have turned to the used market.

The worsening consumer sentiment will absolutely negatively impact the volume and nominal price of each individual car sale moving forward.

I believe the data will show up in the last quarter of 2022 and 2023.

As the price of cars falls, CVNA are stuck with a higher cost basis because they snapped up many cars at premium prices and now buyers have vacated. These car dealers’ algorithms haven’t adjusted yet to the paradigm shift.

CVNA will need to consider taking a loss on these automobile units to shed inventory otherwise they are on the hook for high carry costs.

Sadly, the short-term outlook doesn’t provide any silver linings and is getting grimmer by the day.

I fully expect gross margins to crater and nominal sales to fall sharply, causing a severe downgrading in annual revenue.

If the high-end consumer holds up, better to migrate into Tesla (TSLA) stock, but that’s a big if.

 

cvna

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-09-30 13:02:422022-10-02 00:23:26Carvana Isn't Nirvana
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

September 30, 2022 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“Technological progress has merely provided us with more efficient means for going backwards.” – Said English writer and philosopher Aldous Leonard Huxley

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/huxley.png 364 330 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-09-30 13:00:002022-09-30 15:57:40September 30, 2022 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

September 28, 2022

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
September 28, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(CHICKENS COME HOME TO ROOST)
(APPL), (HNHPF), (TSM), (ASML)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-09-28 16:04:142022-09-29 00:25:05September 28, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Chickens Come Home to Roost

Tech Letter

I hit the nail on the head – I’ll take another victory lap and you’re welcome.

I’ve been telling all my subscribers.

Apple backing off production of the new iPhone 14s signals that the US consumer is tapped out.

Throw in the towel!

What does that mean?

At the low-end, US consumers don’t have the extra funds to pay for all the streaming services or the extra hardware, gizmos, and gadgets they are used to.

That means the iPhone 14 Pro is next to get squeezed from the budget after an eye-watering $1,500 pretax price tag. At least at that price point, it includes 1 TB of data storage, but no charger.

Personally, I acknowledge that Apple makes a pretty darn good smartphone, but it’s way too overpriced in 2022 and there aren’t enough improvements to justify the lofty prices.

But the killing of new iPhone production goes well beyond just the issue of global sales of smartphones, this is a harbinger of things to come as global economic growth goes from bad to worse.

This is also legit confirmation that inflation is not only transitory, but it’s terrorizing US consumers’ budgets.

Interestingly enough, the most expensive models did still see high demand, confirming what I already have been saying is that high income US consumers are navigating elevated inflation more than superb even if conditions aren’t ideal.

Because they are in good shape – great personal financial balance sheets – hope it stays that way.

Thus, Apple supplier is shifting production capacity from lower-priced iPhones to premium models.

High income households are passing on their costs to the end consumers in the companies they run, and they are jacking up rents in the condos they let out.

They are even hitting up Walmart more than usual and abstaining from pricier options like Whole Foods or Whole paycheck.

Fantastically, high income Americans are ready to spend, spend, spend and that’s great news for employers and employees, but bad news for the bond market.

Apple is cutting the iPhone 14 product family by as many as 6 million units in the second half of this year.

Instead, the company will aim to produce 90 million handsets for the period, roughly the same level as the prior year and in line with Apple’s original forecast this summer.

In Taipei, key chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) fell 2.2% and Apple’s biggest iPhone assembler Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. (HNHPF) was down 2.9%, amid a wide selloff of electronics suppliers.

ASML Holding NV (ASML), maker of advanced chipmaking gear, dropped as much as 3.2% in Amsterdam.

Purchases of the iPhone 14 series over its first three days of availability in China were 11% down on its predecessor the previous year.

Readers must be aware of Apple being the biggest component of the S&P. When Apple goes, so does the market.

Then there is the issue of, maybe the phones just suck now, since each iteration is the trigger for higher expectations which aren’t really met anymore.

Either way, CEO Tim Cook needs to roll up his sleeves, and this report ostensibly means that Apple won’t return to 2022 highs anytime soon.

It also vindicates and confirms that we are still in a sell the rallies mode or buy the dip after deep selloffs mode. This is a short-term traders' world right now and the data backs me up.

Happy trading!

 

iphone

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/apple-phone.png 690 1220 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-09-28 16:02:112022-09-29 03:09:36Chickens Come Home to Roost
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

September 28, 2022 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“The thing that we are trying to do at Facebook is just help people connect and communicate more efficiently.” – Said Facebook Co-Founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/mark-zucherberg.png 416 576 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-09-28 16:00:072022-09-29 00:26:38September 28, 2022 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

September 26, 2022

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
September 26, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(DARLING TO DEMOTED)
(ARKK), (SARK), (PRNT), (IZRL), (ZM), (DNA), (TSLA)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-09-26 15:04:362022-09-26 16:45:22September 26, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Darling to Demoted

Tech Letter

ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) and its infamous CEO Cathie Wood was the poster boy for tech growth as the 10-year bull market in technology shifted into high gear.

That was then and this is now.

Oh, how one full year makes a world of difference in the tech universe.

ARKK is not touted anymore as the tech fund that could do no wrong.

We, as investors, cannot recreate the world we desire by a click of a button but must roll with the punches and embrace a paradigm shift into a new normal of economic uncertainty, stagnation, de-globalization, supply chain bottlenecks, weak emerging currencies, and most important, higher interest rates.

It just so happens that the best trade out there all along has been long the US dollar to the detriment of tech stocks. Tech usually does well when the US dollar is weak.  

ARK’s underperformance is finally creating a change as Wood is relinquishing her role as portfolio at 3D Printing ETF (PRNT) and ARK Israel Innovative Technology ETF (IZRL).

Recent criticism has been fierce accusing the fund of being a one-woman show with much of the hopes and dreams pinned on Wood.

Much of this has to do with her earlier success in Tesla (TSLA) which I would like to give her credit for.

However, since then, she has ridden the coattails of popularity to become a tech growth evangelist no matter what conditions.

She has often cut a polarizing figure in the world of tech investing.

ARK’s centralization of management could prove to be their downfall.

The demotion for Wood won’t be taken lightly and this also could be a way to throw the next guy under the bus as tech stocks go from bad to worse.

There have been headscratchers lately.

ARKK bought more of Zoom Video Communications Inc. (ZM) last month and I find that more of a beggar’s belief than anything else.

A pandemic darling shouldn’t be confused with a small company with no competitive advantages against big tech.

Another bizarre decision was to buy Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings Inc. (DNA), which has fallen 69% this year. The company invests in early-stage biotech companies and has lost around $1.5 billion in the first half of 2022. The company in 2021 lost $1.8 billion as well, but Wood continues to pour capital into this start-up.

The Nasdaq is now rescinding the premium they used to generously deliver for loss-making companies but fast-growing companies.

Woods hypers herself up as investing in disruptive tech, but many of her companies aren’t that disruptive and she is not aware of market cycles or market timing.

For the past year, she has proved that she is a specialist in being wrong.

ARKK needs to be careful of a meltdown instead of flashing the cash on pandemic darlings because they are cheap today.

There is a reason that many of these speculative tech firms are now cheap, it’s because they aren’t growing enough or making enough money. She still doesn’t understand that.

Expect more demotions for Wood as her pixie dust has run dry.

Buy the inverse of ARKK called AXS Short Innovation Daily ETF (SARK) after bear market rallies.

 

arkk

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-09-26 15:02:282022-09-29 00:10:17Darling to Demoted
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