• support@madhedgefundtrader.com
  • Member Login
Mad Hedge Fund Trader
  • Home
  • About
  • Store
  • Luncheons
  • Testimonials
  • Contact Us
  • Click to open the search input field Click to open the search input field Search
  • Menu Menu
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

A Key Clue to the Future of Meta

Tech Letter

Chief Operating Officer (COO) of Facebook (FB) Sheryl Sandberg quitting from her post caught many off guard.

It seemed like she was in it to the end, until she wasn’t.

Most thought she wouldn’t stop until the company she worked for completely destroyed democracy, or ruined other countries’ free elections, or until she had more money than most sovereign countries.

Apparently, that wasn’t the finish line!

Did she get tired of all the mass killings that Facebook streamed live to its multi-billion-person audience?

Probably not.

My read into this is that Facebook is heading directly for a cataclysmic revenue iceberg and Sandberg is definitely not on board with the new direction of the company, i.e. the Metaverse.

The Metaverse has already lost 10s of billions of dollars and will continue to do so for the next couple of years for a very untested and unproven technology.

She clearly gives the Metaverse a big thumbs down and we might look back on this to a vital signal or even a missed sign.

Sandberg would most likely stay on board if there was another billion it in for her.  

Remember, it was Sandberg who brought the concept of a digital ad model from Google to Facebook which catapulted Facebook into a wildly successful cash cow for its shareholders.

After that, I am not sure what else she did, but most executives never get that far in the first place.  

Another takeaway from her resignation is that her digital ad model which essentially stole personal data from the user to sell to digital advertisers is on a downward and irreversible trajectory.

The underlying data supports this notion as Facebook, minus Instagram, bleeds users.

So instead of being in Menlo Park to take the blame for the downfall, might as well rebrand herself as the most powerful female Venture Capitalist in technology and move on to reignite her corporate feminism.

Even though she did pocket well over a billion dollars from her 14-years in mostly vested stock selling, she will be more known for selling out the Facebook user.

Rather than sacrifice a smidgeon of profitability to protect users, she decided to build a colossal army to construct a communications and government affairs squad to deny and deflect criticism of Facebook.

Those teams have been supremely effective at stymieing any momentum to go after Facebook itself.

That’s why the company is never in trouble and executives aren’t in jail.

They run a playbook of delaying tactics that stretch each story beyond the attention span of journalists and policymakers and even paying others to write bad press.

Sandberg was the engineer of that strategy and of the teams that implemented it. This was a deliberate choice. So was the Facebook decision to hire a consultancy to do opposition research about George Soros after the billionaire criticized Facebook in a speech at the World Economic Forum in early 2018.

She is a master of the dark arts and her quitting at Facebook does help cleanse the stench of the tech industry that has built a rotten reputation recently.

The biggest corporate sellout of Silicon Valley quitting epitomizes the deep trenches tech and Facebook find themselves in right now.

The fall from grace in 2022 has forced many hedge funds to liquidate.

Negative wealth effects are something no industry wants to be a part of.

However, it appears there is light at the end of the tunnel.

The 30% correction in the Nasdaq index has been followed by a 6% bear market rally.

The good news is that it's highly likely the Nasdaq index will not experience another 30% correction in the second half of 2022.

However, a recession not yet being priced into Nasdaq shares and a bad earnings setup put a spanner into the works, which is why the bear market rally is legitimately capped to the upside.

This means that it's the year of the short-term trader while long-term ETF holders won’t and haven’t found much success this year.

Sell the big rallies and buy the big dips, then take profits.

At least now is the time we are starting to discover dip buyers after they took the first 6 months off in 2022.

 

sandberg

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-06-06 13:02:502022-06-07 17:22:21A Key Clue to the Future of Meta
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

June 6, 2022 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“I know tech better than anyone.” – Said then-current President of the United States Donald J. Trump on his Twitter Account in 2018

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/donald-trump.png 205 252 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-06-06 13:00:472022-06-06 15:43:36June 6, 2022 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

June 1, 2022

Tech Letter

 

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
June 3, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

TECH RECESSION IS COMING)
(GOOGL), (MSFT), (AAPL), (TSLA)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-06-03 15:04:112022-06-03 16:59:19June 1, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Tech Recession is Coming

Tech Letter

The Nasdaq index isn’t pricing in a recession, but it absolutely should, as economic data streaming in shows cracks beneath the surface.

The Federal government finally went on record to admit the historically epic blunder they committed by categorizing inflation as “transitory,” with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen acknowledging that she was “wrong.”

It's about time.

The colossal mismanagement of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve has had an extraordinary whiplash on tech shares and many have gotten burnt.

What we are experiencing now is high volatility that used to never exist in the stock market as an overleveraged system flooded by cheap money is now deleveraging.

Strong tech names like Google (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT) have experienced 3% up or down days on just normal trading days with growth stocks like Tesla (TSLA) up or down 10% in just a day.

Retail traders are in over their head if they go at this alone and this is why the Mad Hedge Technology Letter is guiding you to safety.

Taking profits on the spikes and valleys is what we do best.

After months of strong consumer spending and supply-chain improvements, some of the country’s most outspoken corporate leaders have started to freak out.

Tech growth bellwether Tesla (TSLA) and their CEO Elon Musk just announced a 10% staff layoff, and that move could be the canary in the coal mine for the tech economy.

Musk clearly feels something isn’t right, and we could be approaching an economic cliff.

If that wasn’t the canary, then Microsoft's downgraded revenue expectations for next quarter’s earnings has to be as the strongest tech companies downgrade forecasts.

The probability of a recession has lurched higher, to around 50%, and this is all while the government preaches about how great the American consumer is doing.

Like many things about the US Federal government, don’t take what they say at face value because usually, the inverse is true.

The sense of doom has been especially evident in the banking sector, where Dimon told investors this week that they should be preparing for an economic “hurricane.”

State side is getting a little crusty, so then the international picture is a little rosier, right?

Wrong.

Apple is shifting its iPad production to Vietnam from China after China’s dystopian zero covid policy has effectively shut down the supply chain there.

The iPhone maker already produces some of its AirPods in Vietnam. The shift to move some iPad production to Vietnam may help it boost iPad revenue.

Ironically enough, as bad as the United States is doing now, the situation abroad is a lot worse.

Europe has completely capitulated to the military conflict and the German Producer Pricing Index has accelerated to 30%.

To make matters even worse, the European Central Bank still is maintaining a 0% net interest rate policy meaning there are Central Bank’s out there doing a lot worse job than the United States Federal Reserve.

Quite hard to believe this level of policy failure.

In short, this inflation problem hasn’t been solved at all and although it could come down a tick year-over-year, it still does nothing material to change the picture.

Even worse, a tech CEO has to be a complete fool to invest in growing capacity right now unless they have $10 billion of extra cash laying around which few companies have unless you’re Facebook, Google, Apple, Microsoft, or Tesla.

At the smaller and ground level, small tech and their balance sheets have been getting slaughtered and so has the American consumer.

Just because the American consumer goes from eating premium beef to chicken, doesn’t mean the consumer is strong.

Sooner or later, they will run out of things to substitute down from.

Same goes for smartphones, software programs, semiconductor chips, and cloud enterprise contracts.

We are in a substitute down phase and that doesn’t shout economic bullishness to me.

Maybe the American consumer can substitute driving a gas-powered car for riding a leg-powered bicycle, I wouldn’t put it past the current government to recommend this to the country.

In Europe, people have already been fed with the drive slower and dress warmer B.S. to cover up government mistakes.

Next, Europeans will need to endure the “eat less” policy come this summer and fall.

 

recession

 

recession

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-06-03 15:02:082022-06-07 17:39:05Tech Recession is Coming
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

June 3, 2022 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“A founder is not a job, it's a role, an attitude.” – Said Co-Founder and CEO of Twitter Jack Dorsey

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/jack-dorsey.png 300 314 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-06-03 15:00:022022-06-03 16:18:56June 3, 2022 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

June 1, 2022

Tech Letter

 

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
June 1, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(FACETIME ON COMPUTER NOT WHAT IT ONCE WAS)
(XOM), (NFLX), (ZM)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-06-01 15:04:012022-06-01 18:19:53June 1, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Facetime on Computer Not What It Once Was

Tech Letter

Data may be the new oil, but oil is still oil, and the price per barrel of crude oil as we speak is $118.

The high price of energy, amongst other controversial forces, has been the genesis of great pain for tech stocks in 2022 and it was only just 18 months ago Zoom (ZM) had a bigger market cap than Exxon Mobil (XOM).

Fast forward to today, Exxon Mobil is 10x bigger than Zoom.

This is just a sign of the times.

That was then and this is now, and past pricing won't dictate future price and markets can remain irrational much longer than you can stay solvent, but this oil pricing will remain fluid for the foreseeable future.

The cure for higher prices is often said to be higher prices to the further detriment of tech shares.  

As we step back for a second and analyze this new world order with new rules, the ‘Facetime on computer’ company ZM SHOULD be worth less than a global oil giant powering civilization.

10 to 1 seems like a mockery of the situation in which the ratio should probably be more like 1000x to 1.

The current price is a reflection of the “good times” in the energy space and tech has by and large been sent to the graveyard.

Concerns that the Fed's rate hikes may induce a recession are keeping investors guessing about the outlook for the economy as rising food and energy costs squeeze consumers, and volatility has picked up.

Therefore, how do we predict the short-term future?

It will clearly be defined by dramatic and volatile stock swings in each direction of the pendulum.

Tech markets, and by default, global markets, since tech is the driving force of the US markets will still indulge in fear of missing out (FOMO) portfolio managers that got whacked the first 6 months of the year, only to try to play catch up to achieve performance targets.

Don’t tell me these people don’t exist, they’ve just been licking their wounds in a more than brutal market setup.

This bear market rally is taking place on the heels of US President Joe Biden using a rare meeting with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to literally paint Powell as the scapegoat.

These meetings usually take place before a selloff because more often than not, people in certain places know horrible inflation numbers are coming down the pipeline hence the scapegoat meeting.

Even if inflation stays stubbornly high, but comes down to 6%, it will still hurt the American consumer which many economists have referred to as the last peg holding up the US stock market and economy.

The momentum we are seeing in this bear market rally won’t be able to hold much longer as American consumers are priced out of housing and credit card delinquency inches up.

Tech earnings won’t be what saves us either as the prospect of downward revisions to earnings estimates is the latest headwind to face stock investors.

We must rejoice around this Nasdaq bear market rally that has seen tech come back to life.

The dominant ecommerce company Amazon has seen a 15% resurgence and left-wing biased streaming company Netflix (NFLX) has recovered 15% from their lows too.

But we need to remember that since February 2022, this is a new world with a new set of rules.

Oil is more important than seeing your coworkers on a video chat, yet the inverse was true before February.

In this new world, tech and its share prices simply don’t stack up like they used to compared to other asset classes.

That being said, tech won’t go up in a straight line from this bear market rally, and that’s certainly better than the kamikaze-esque price action we saw the first half of the year.

The Mad Hedge Technology Letter will pick our spots, but I am not convinced in going completely bullish or 100% bearish at this point in the deleveraging cycle.

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-06-01 15:02:572022-06-01 18:20:57Facetime on Computer Not What It Once Was
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

May 27, 2022

Tech Letter

 

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
May 27, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(ECOMMERCE PLATEAUS)
(AMZN)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-05-27 15:04:072022-05-27 16:01:48May 27, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

eCommerce Plateaus

Tech Letter

Amazon’s decision to look for subletters of 10 million square feet of warehouse space means they don’t believe ecommerce growth will migrate into the extra space they planned for.

This is a big deal because it takes a long time to acquire the extra footage to expand capacity.

It doesn’t happen in one day.

It’s almost a surrender of sorts that this short-term pandemic ecommerce bump had no legs.

It’s over like it almost never existed, sort of like the health crisis.

So why is this a problem?

Amazon’s ecommerce investors' main reason for investing in Amazon is to earn money through appreciating shares.

This only comes about if their businesses are growing and behind their cloud division called Amazon Web Services (AWS), ecommerce is the second most important.

This is why Amazon has seen such as epic selloff in the first half of the year.

I do believe the negativity has somewhat overshot which is why I executed a deep-in-the money bull call option spread on this stock.

It’s not the death of Amazon, hardly so, but it’s been really painful for shareholders.

It was just in 2020 when Amazon added warehouse space faster than it ultimately needed in response to the challenges of the pandemic, outpacing consumer sales and resulting in an extra $2 billion in costs in the first quarter.

However, given the extraordinary demand and uncertainty Amazon was seeing at the time, there’s not much else the company could have done.

This is not what management describes as “right sizing capacity” and in fact is an error in capacity expectations.

Companies don’t spend an extra $2 billion in capacity when they don’t need to.

It would cripple many small ecommerce companies.

Amazon’s online sales fell 3% for the quarter to $51 billion, as shoppers relied less on the company for critical purchases.

Amazon’s recent announcement of a “Buy with Prime” program, serving ecommerce sites other than Amazon.com, takes the company further down the path of using its fulfillment and delivery network to offer shipping as a service, generating additional revenue and potentially competing with UPS and FedEx.

It’s similar to what Amazon did with Amazon Web Services, using its online expertise and cloud infrastructure as a starting point for a business that generated $18.4 billion in revenue in the first quarter.

The company has spent the past few years creating its own last-mile delivery network, known as “AMZL,” leveraging a network of dedicated Amazon Delivery Service Partners and reducing its dependence on third-party delivery companies such as UPS and the U.S. Postal Service.

The 45% selloff in Amazon has been quite overdone bringing the PE ratio all the way down to around 50.

If energy prices and inflation can moderate somewhat in the back half of the year, AMZN would be the first candidate to extend this dead cat bounce into a real bounce back to $3,000 per share.

AMZN is one of the beneficiaries of lower inflation because of its high reliance on fuel to deliver products the last mile.

That cannot be substituted at all so the stock market is reflecting the short-term pain.

The energy having such a stronghold over the tech market is quite unprecedented and don’t expect AMZN to start their oil refiner business.

However, I do expect choppy trading as rising rates and lower purchasing power for Americans do a dirty job on the AMZN bottom line.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-05-27 15:02:102022-05-27 16:01:02eCommerce Plateaus
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

May 27, 2022 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“I couldn't imagine a more incompetent politician than myself.” – Said Founder and Co-CEO of Salesforce Marc Benioff

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/benioff.png 368 350 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-05-27 15:00:152022-05-27 16:00:28May 27, 2022 - Quote of the Day
Page 115 of 314«‹113114115116117›»

tastytrade, Inc. (“tastytrade”) has entered into a Marketing Agreement with Mad Hedge Fund Trader (“Marketing Agent”) whereby tastytrade pays compensation to Marketing Agent to recommend tastytrade’s brokerage services. The existence of this Marketing Agreement should not be deemed as an endorsement or recommendation of Marketing Agent by tastytrade and/or any of its affiliated companies. Neither tastytrade nor any of its affiliated companies is responsible for the privacy practices of Marketing Agent or this website. tastytrade does not warrant the accuracy or content of the products or services offered by Marketing Agent or this website. Marketing Agent is independent and is not an affiliate of tastytrade. 

Legal Disclaimer

There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

Copyright © 2025. Mad Hedge Fund Trader. All Rights Reserved. support@madhedgefundtrader.com
  • Privacy Policy
  • Disclaimer
  • FAQ
Scroll to top