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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Ride-Sharing Needs a Facelift

Tech Letter

CEO of Uber (UBER) Dara Khosrowshahi earns 200X the salary of the median Uber employee and for that large sum of money, he lost the company $5.9 billion in just the first quarter.

The company is a perennial cash burner, and they haven’t shown us how they will fix this problem.  

The company can dish out as many “positive outlooks” as it wants, but rest assured, they usually just move the goalposts and put some lipstick on a pig to dress up even more astronomical losses coming down the pipeline.

Uber’s management obviously did a bad job messaging their “positive outlook” as the share price opened up down 11% in today’s trading.

The time has come to pay the bill for this company and it’s not pretty.

They didn’t come anywhere close to becoming profitable during generational low-interest rates, and now, their prospects look bleak as we barrel towards a world with vastly higher borrowing costs.

Sure, the revenue doubled, but drivers aren’t making any money with such high gas prices and Uber has had to shell out more for labor and that’s not coming down any time soon.

In fact, if there was one tech company that would perform awful in high inflationary conditions, this is the company.

Not only that, but Uber’s service now is also just way too expensive, take a ride, and they charge consumers way more than its worth.

Unless it's 2 in the morning and there is no means back home, consumers won’t rush to order an Uber unless it’s an emergency.

I expect a shortage of drivers to continue as working for Uber as a driver is really bottom-of-the-barrel type of stuff and why do it during a time where labor rights are on the rise?

Remember they had to present a ballot for voters to get them classified as subcontractors and spent $200 million on it.

Investors must have pondered if this $200 million would have been better invested in the actual business instead of ripping off their own employees.

The intensifying competition for labor is also revealing the different ways in which ride-hailing giants are tackling the issue. Uber said it has been making tweaks to the driver app, like unlocking the ability to see upfront fares before accepting a ride, improving maps, and removing bugs.

Uber management touts Uber Eats as the savior of its business but then this company should be valued as a food delivery company with a lower multiple.

Uber eats is still losing money with no end in sight and one must conclude that it appears as if this “tech” firm has no chance of ever becoming profitable based on this current business model.

I fully expect Uber eats to burn more cash as food inflation goes from bad to awful which will mean demand destruction of its customers.

These customers can easily substitute Uber eats services by ordering supermarket delivery and throwing a frozen pizza in the oven.

Uber eats service is a luxury, not a necessity as many Americans cut back on spending because of major economic policy mistakes by the US Central Bank and the current White House administration.

It’s not a shocker to fin

d out that in the 3 years of Uber’s stock being public, shares have gone down 35% since the IPO in dreamy financial conditions with unlimited investment appetite for inferior tech companies.

The stock currently trades at $26 per share, and I would say this stock would be a good short-term trade at around $17.

Lastly, Uber’s way of saying they are a good tech company is by describing themselves as “not Lyft” and that right there is a massive smokescreen.

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-05-04 15:02:382022-05-04 15:43:00Ride-Sharing Needs a Facelift
Douglas Davenport

May 2, 2022

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
May 2, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(ANOTHER TECH SUPPLY SHOCK)
(SOXX)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Douglas Davenport https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Douglas Davenport2022-05-02 13:42:432022-05-02 13:42:43May 2, 2022
Douglas Davenport

Another Tech Supply Shock

Tech Letter

Some concerning developments will reveal the dire straights of the semiconductor industry (SOXX) right now.  

What I am about to tell you effectively puts semiconductor chips in the doghouse with no end in sight and it’s not a surprise that semiconductor stocks have swan dived the past half-year.

They are quite infamous for the boom-bust cycle, but the new developments have put that thesis on steroids as the ensuing bust seems to be picking up momentum by the second. 

What we have is supply-side shock. 

The global semiconductor industry is being impacted by a neon shortage.

Neon is a gas that is crucial for making chips. It is used in the lithography step, which involves lasers carving into silicon to develop semiconductors. 

Ukrainian neon is a byproduct of Russian steel manufacturing. 

Critical Ukrainian companies, Ingas and Cryoin, have halted production unable to operate in this foggy environment of military conflict. 

Ukraine is a significant supplier of neon and Ingas and Cryoin accounting for over 60% of the world’s total neon output.

Prices of neon have spiked by up to 500% from December because of the health situation. 

In China, prices have also gone up by 400% as well and this can be expected when supply chains are disrupted such as the 600% in the run-up to Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea from Ukraine.

Ingas produces neon gas out of Mariupol and exports around the world. 

This city has more or less been destroyed with 99% of buildings reduced to rubble. 

Before the military confrontation, Ingas produced 15,000 to 20,000 cubic meters of neon per month for customers in Taiwan, Korea, China, the United States, and Germany, with about 75% going to the chip industry.

Cryoin, which is based in the southern Ukrainian port city of Odessa, says they have three months of inventory if the factory is damaged.

Right now the factory production has been suspended because the company cannot access additional raw materials for purifying neon.

The government of Taiwan noted that Taiwanese firms had made advanced preparations and have reserve stocks of neon for the near term.

China is also a significant producer of neon gas, but prices there have been gapping up because of arbitrary lockdowns lately. 

Clearly, there is a paradigm shift towards a brave new world where supply chains in far-flung territories governed by dictators won’t be able to deliver the “just-in-time” globalized module of manufacturing. 

This proves the situation is highly likely to deteriorate than ameliorate and at some point if chip companies don’t suck it up and decide to bite the bullet, generations of products could be shelved because of a lack of materials. 

Manufacturing of the entire chip manufacturing process must go back to a domestic operation simply because there will be no way to procure the particular inputs to create the end product.

This will destroy the supply for everything from electronics to other products that need chips causing another leg up in inflation.

What does this mean for the chip companies?

The small chip companies who usually rely on one or two big contracts are about to get massacred. 

Missing deadlines is a death knell for small companies as they preside over paltry reserves and cannot endure this type of headwind in the manufacturing process. 

At a broader level, expect the boom-bust cycles to show deeper busts with a more delayed snapback along with lower margins. 

If that is the bottom line, a major de-risking of semiconductor stocks must happen to reflect this new reality. 

Sure, there is a chance that inflation moderates in the next year, but it will still be higher than what chip companies have been used to for the past 30 years. 

Chip stocks are in the penalty box until they can work out supply-side issues. 

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Douglas Davenport https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Douglas Davenport2022-05-02 13:40:582022-05-02 13:40:58Another Tech Supply Shock
Douglas Davenport

May 2, 2022 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“Artists work best alone.” – Said Co-Founder of Apple Steve Wozniak

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/wozniak.png 802 544 Douglas Davenport https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Douglas Davenport2022-05-02 13:40:192022-05-02 13:40:19May 2, 2022 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 29, 2022

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
April 29, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(TELADOC IMPLODES)
(ARKK), (SARK), (TDOC), (ROKU), (SHOP), (ZM)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-04-29 11:04:142022-04-29 16:03:32April 29, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Teladoc Implodes

Tech Letter

The Cathie Wood circus keeps making new lows as digital doctor platform Teladoc (TDOC) recorded the biggest drop in shares since its IPO.

At one point, shares were down 45% and this was the day after buying another tranche of over $200 million worth of shares before the earnings came out.

TDOC was a pandemic darling and since then, the stock has done nothing but dive lower.

There is even an inverse ETF to jump on the anti-Cathie Wood bandwagon called Tuttle Capital Short Innovation ETF (SARK).

SARK is almost up 100% year to date showing that as market conditions distort, traders must distort with them.

To stay long tech growth is like throwing money off an apartment balcony.

The lack of understanding Cathie Woods exhibits about the stock market is hard to fathom.

Her go-to excuse is that others “aren’t doing the research.”

We were smack dab in a low-rate environment for a decade when even marginal tech companies would get the benefit of the doubt.

As the goalposts have moved and narrowed, Wood is still sticking to her 5-year time horizon and still explaining to investors that other analysts “aren’t doing their homework.”

This really is a case of the emperor having no clothes if I have ever seen it.

To add insult to injury, she has gone on public television to speak about how she believes the global economy is experiencing deflationary pressures.

No matter what changes to the trading environment, she sticks to her narrow story of deflation and her 5-year time horizon while her investors lose money.

If that’s not enough, she blames the market for not understanding her ARKK fund which is down more than 50% this year.

She claims that many people are “devaluing innovation” and just do not understand innovation like she does.

With an unrelenting belief in her growth strategy, miraculously, another $1.5 billion of inflows have juiced up her fund in 2022.

There are many out there that still think she is a great money manager after her one call of Tesla going up was correct.

Investors have chosen to back her further even with mounting losses and that has now backfired as ETF ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) appears as if the market has not recognized how smart Cathie Wood is.

ARKK is Teladoc’s largest shareholder with a 12% stake worth.

It’s not just TDOC, but other investments like Roku (ROKU), Zoom Video Communications (ZM), and Shopify (SHOP) whose shares have experienced cataclysmic meltdowns of epic proportions.

Why did TDOC shares perform so poorly?

Higher advertising expenses in the mental health market, as well as an “elongated sales cycle” in chronic conditions as employers and providers of healthcare plans evaluate strategies.

TDOC’s services aren’t as good as first thought.

TDOC also took a $6.6 billion charge for impairment of goodwill, a non-cash charge the company excluded from its adjusted results.

The competition also has increased significantly and many of these first-move advantages are not holding up like they used to in tech.

The recent performance has been met with a bevy of analyst downgrades and tech growth as a sub-sector will have a hard time recovering until a lower interest rate sentiment comes back to sweep up the market.

Still, not a peep out of Cathie Wood on modifying her controversial strategies and that’s when we are staring down a barrel of multiple 50 basis point interest rate rises.

She was photographed partying in the Bahamas at some beach parties the day before the TDOC debacle, apparently, she isn’t bothered that much by her followers losing generation wealth.

If readers want to get back into tech growth after an easing of credit conditions, avoid buying ARKK and just buy a collection of strong tech growth yourself.

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-04-29 11:02:142022-04-29 16:05:20Teladoc Implodes
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 29, 2022 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“Success is a lousy teacher. It seduces smart people into thinking they can't lose.” – Said Co-Founder of Microsoft Bill Gates

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/mf-gates.png 258 196 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-04-29 11:00:532022-04-29 16:02:05April 29, 2022 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 27, 2022

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
April 27, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(GOOGLE LAYS AN EGG)
(GOOGL), (TIKTOK), (NFLX), (FB)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-04-27 18:04:122022-04-27 20:39:27April 27, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Google Lays an Egg

Tech Letter

It’s not that easy to make money in big tech these days – that is what the big takeaway was with the Google (GOOGL) or Alphabet earnings report that came out after the close yesterday.

The glory years are long gone.

First, it was almost like Groundhog Day with the Netflix-like streaming catastrophe that has now victimized yet another tech company.

YouTube competes differently with other streamers and is reliant on the digital ad model which is why an ad shows every 10 seconds when we watch YouTube.

I know it’s annoying but that’s how they grow revenue, and the blame was squarely attributed to China’s TikTok which is a short-form video platform eating everyone else’s lunch.

YouTube led all platforms in the first quarter of 2022 when respondents were asked which platform they used most often for mobile video, but YouTube dropped to 35% of respondents vs. 45% in the first quarter of 2021 while TikTok was #2 with 22%.

Besides, YouTube is literally entertainment, and with the health situation normalized again and the weather heating up, don’t blame others for grabbing a beer or two with their friends whom they haven’t seen for ages.

That clearly doesn’t help the YouTube ad revenue when people are out and about.  

Google will need to deal with this TikTok problem because it’s real and it’s not disappearing anytime soon.

Google has a TikTok copy called YouTube Shorts and it’s not going that well if we compare it to TikTok which has surged to well over 1 billion subscribers.

If management allows the platform to get stale, it could become another dying tech company like Facebook.

The sum of the parts wasn’t particularly impressive either and that is weird to say based on Google’s history of outperformance.

Investors almost never see them miss on the top and bottom line and the EPS miss was not even close.

Things are getting more expensive for all of us, and Google just laid bare what we knew it our guts.

Just look at their research and development spend, it went from $7.5 billion to $9.1 billion which is a $1.6 billion increase in nominal spend.

They are also getting less revenue from Google Play which lowered developer fees to 15% or less for 99% of apps, down from 30% previously.

The bright spots were search advertising and cloud businesses.

Google Cloud has been growing quickly, but still remains unprofitable. It grew sales 43% for the first quarter to reach $5.8 billion, which was about in line with expectations. However, operating losses were wider than expected at $931 million.

Investing aggressively in the cloud is Google’s silver bullet, and that’s clearly having an impact in terms of the free cash flow numbers as well as the higher expenses and the margin compression we’re seeing not only in that segment but in the broader business.

Big Tech is decelerating, and external forces are magnifying the weakness in growth.

I do believe much of the negativity has been priced into GOOGL’s stock and this isn’t the case of a broken business model like Netflix (NFLX) or Facebook (FB).

I believe GOOGL shares will have a positive second half of the year.

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-04-27 18:02:162022-04-27 20:48:49Google Lays an Egg
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Quote of the Day - April 27, 2022

Tech Letter

“There are two equalizers in life: the Internet and education.” – Said Former CEO of Cisco John Chambers

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/john-chambers.png 283 424 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-04-27 18:00:042022-04-27 20:46:09Quote of the Day - April 27, 2022
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