Mad Hedge Technology Letter
March 25, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE DUMPSTER FIRE SUB-SECTOR OF TECH)
(SSYS), (DDD), (PRLB)
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
March 25, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE DUMPSTER FIRE SUB-SECTOR OF TECH)
(SSYS), (DDD), (PRLB)
Avoid 3D printing stocks.
It’s not because I hate these companies, but when I delve beneath the surface of these business models, they just aren’t good enough.
3D printing is a great phenomenon, but so was the digital handheld pet Tamagotchi invented by Japanese company Bandai in 1996.
Tamagotchis only went so far, and so will 3D printing.
Take for instance, in just a decade, 3D-printed guns have come a long way from a fully functional 3D-printable semiautomatic pistol carbine entirely printed at home to what now appears to be a rocket launcher-like device.
Does that mean that the U.S. military will start manufacturing Blackhawk helicopters and industrial-grade surface-to-air missile weapons on a 3D printer?
Hell no.
The fact is that for the crème of the crop products, the ones that bring in the revenue that make your eyes big, manufacturers aren’t going to choose a 3D printer to make these products.
If 3D printing isn’t used for these premium products, it means that building an accelerated revenue model will be almost impossible.
Take for instance automobiles, they aren’t a subscription-based business, but car companies scale globally and to all parts of the globe.
I can’t think of one country that doesn’t need cars as a main input in their domestic economy apart from possibly Papa New Guinea.
A classic car dealership might have a 3D printer to replace a few cosmetic parts and if the parts squeak, it's either that part or nothing as there are no more spare parts.
For high quality German cars, drivers would need to wait for the specific part from the specific supplier.
Car manufacturers have high standards, car parts have specific requirements concerning strength, fatigue, heat, fire, color, finish level, recycling, the classic parts are rather cheap to make for cars that sell in high volume, car parts are in general not designed to make with a 3D printer.
Good luck if you’re waiting around for an entire car to be printed, because it will probably never happen.
Most parts in cars need to be strong, lightweight, heat resistant, have a fine finish.
They are often quite big it would be unfeasible to have a 3D printer the size of a 500 sq foot room.
3D printers that size also scale poorly.
With all this being said, let’s take a peak at the financials.
One of the top 3D printing companies Stratasys Ltd. (SSYS) achieved $663 million of annual revenue in 2018 and fast forward to 2021, they decelerated to $607 million.
Not only is revenue decelerating, but they don’t turn a profit.
SSYS lost $62 million in 2021 and they have lost money for the past 4 years.
Let’s find another example in 3D Systems Corporation (DDD) headquartered in Rock Hill, South Carolina.
In 2018, they achieved $691 million of annual revenue and continued to decelerate and earn $615 million in revenue in 2021.
Essentially, some of the largest 3D printing stocks have topped out at a sub-$700 million per year clip and are going in the opposite direction.
Loss-making and revenue deceleration are the two characteristics that investors hate most.
One of the only 3D printing companies to grow revenue in the past 4 years was Proto Labs, Inc. (PRLB).
In 2018, PRLB achieved annual revenue of $445 million and surged ahead to make $488 million in revenue in 2021.
These growth numbers are paltry relative to any other tech sub-sector.
In short, these companies have little access to big revenue-making opportunities, and lucrative industries don’t view them as high quality enough to mass produce anything of real value.
Decelerating revenue, decelerating EPS, and unprofitability are all deal breakers.
Avoid 3D printing stocks like the plague.
“I couldn't imagine a more incompetent politician than myself.” – Said Co-Founder and Co-CEO of Salesforce
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
March 23, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(NVDA STRENGTHENING INTO THE FUTURE)
(NVDA)
The growing meaning of the metaverse to Nvidia (NVDA) is something that could strengthen the long-term trajectory for a company that I have loved for years.
It’s really the best of breed in terms of artificial intelligence if you look at it through the lens of a semiconductor.
Nvidia shares have rebounded quickly from the earlier dip and the 19% uptick is something that many investors have come to expect.
The stock is extremely resilient, and investors expect incessant dip-buying.
Nvidia’s strategic importance at the cutting edge of multiple industries makes it hard to discard this company.
Yesterday they had an investor call to showcase their newest product – Omniverse.
NVIDIA Omniverse is an easily extensible, open platform built for virtual collaboration and real-time physically accurate simulation. Creators, designers, researchers, and engineers can connect major design tools, assets, and projects to collaborate and iterate in a shared virtual space.
This product will nudge NVDA headfirst into the omniverse so much so that accelerating revenue projections are already starting to reflect the outperformance of omniverse.
This division is just another notch in the belt for Nvidia who presides over many successful initiatives from gaming, data centers, crypto mining, AI, autonomous vehicles — they all offer significant growth potential for this company.
NVDA could be described as the jack of all trades, master of all.
Let me remind you that regarding the metaverse revenue of the expected growth to Nvidia’s existing market segments, the company could reach $140 billion in annual sales by 2040.
What Is the Metaverse?
The meaning and term “metaverse” has been liberally bandied around lately.
Despite what some companies might want you to believe, it’s not a single entity or platform.
It’s more of a shift toward interacting digitally instead of purely physically. This can include virtual reality (VR), or a mix between digital and physical in the form of augmented reality (AR).
There will be dedicated spaces such as games and virtual worlds, and a digital economy is springing up to serve these communities.
Interoperable digital worlds is the core of metaverse and it will become real very quickly.
When that happens, expect Nvidia to be one of the biggest winners of metaverse economics.
Think of the metaverse today as the early days of the internet to get a visualization of how it is primed to explode in capabilities and importance.
Nvidia’s technology will be an important cog in the metaverse’s future development. The metaverse requires massive server infrastructure to host virtual worlds. Nvidia has leveraged the parallel processing capabilities of its GPUs to become a leader in GPU-accelerated data center solutions. The company’s data center revenue was up 71% year over year in its latest earnings report.
AI will be in high demand for an interactive metaverse experience — another strong point for NVDA.
Making the most of a PC-based metaverse will require the installation of high-powered graphics cards.
The creators who design metaverse experiences and populate them with virtual goods will also need high-powered GPUs and software tools.
Therefore, it makes sense that NVDA is rolling out the omniverse platform to facilitate the construction of the metaverse.
Investors should look forward to NVDA allocating the incremental resource to the metaverse in order to corner the market for its technology.
This is very much one of those situations where if NVDA is a critical element to the start-up phase, they won’t be kicked out of the next phase of development.
Readers should be adding this stock on any tech sell-off, it’s rare that NVDA is on discount.
“I fear the day when the technology overlaps with our humanity. The world will only have a generation of idiots.” – Said German-born Theoretical Physicist Albert Einstein
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
March 21, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(TRUST THE CLOUD)
(AMZN), (ZS), (CRM), (GOOGL)
Dealing with the Cloud works, and for every relevant tech company, this division serves as the pipeline to the CEO position.
If this isn’t the case for a tech company, then there’s something egregiously wrong with them!
Take Andy Jassy, the mastermind behind Amazon’s (AMZN) lucrative cloud computing division and the man who succeeded company founder, Jeff Bezos.
He’s been rewarded this important position based on his performance in the cloud, and he faces a daunting proposition of following Bezos as CEO.
Bezos incorporated Amazon almost 30 years ago.
Jassy developed a highly profitable and market-leading business, Amazon Web Services, that runs data centers serving a wide range of corporate computing needs.
Cloud 101
If you've been living under a rock the past few years, the cloud phenomenon hasn't passed you by--you still have time to cash in.
You want to hitch your wagon to cloud-based investments in any way, shape, or form.
Amazon leads the cloud industry it created.
It still maintains more than 30% of the cloud market. Microsoft would need to gain a lot of ground to even come close to this jewel of a business.
Amazon relies on AWS to underpin the rest of its businesses and that is why AWS contributes most of Amazon's total operating income.
Total revenue for just the AWS division would operate as a healthy stand-alone tech company if need be.
The future is about the cloud.
These days, the average investor probably hears about the cloud a dozen times a day.
If you work in Silicon Valley, you can quadruple that figure.
So, before we get deep into the weeds with this letter on cloud services, cloud fundamentals, cloud plays, and cloud Trade Alerts, let's get into the basics of what the cloud actually is.
Think of this as a cloud primer.
It's important to understand the cloud, both its strengths and limitations.
Giant companies that have it figured out, such as Salesforce (CRM) and Zscaler (ZS), are some of the fastest-growing companies in the world.
Understand the cloud and you will readily identify its bottlenecks and bulges that can lead to extreme investment opportunities. And that is where I come in.
Cloud storage refers to the online space where you can store data. It resides across multiple remote servers housed inside massive data centers all over the country, some as large as football fields, often in rural areas where land, labor, and electricity are cheap.
They are built using virtualization technology, which means that storage space spans across many different servers and multiple locations. If this sounds crazy, remember that the original Department of Defense packet-switching design was intended to make the system atomic bomb-proof.
As a user, you can access any single server at any one time anywhere in the world. These servers are owned, maintained, and operated by giant third-party companies such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet (GOOGL), which may or may not charge a fee for using them.
The most important features of cloud storage are:
1) It is a service provided by an external provider.
2) All data is stored outside your computer residing inside an in-house network.
3) A simple Internet connection will allow you to access your data at any time from anywhere.
4) Because of all these features, sharing data with others is vastly easier, and you can even work with multiple people online at the same time, making it the perfect, collaborative vehicle for our globalized world.
Once you start using the cloud to store a company's data, the benefits are many.
No Maintenance
Many companies, regardless of their size, prefer to store data inside in-house servers and data centers.
However, these require constant 24-hour-a-day maintenance, so the company has to employ a large in-house IT staff to manage them - a costly proposition.
Thanks to cloud storage, businesses can save costs on maintenance since their servers are now the headache of third-party providers.
Instead, they can focus resources on the core aspects of their business where they can add the most value, without worrying about managing IT staff of prima donnas.
Greater Flexibility
Today's employees want to have a better work/life balance and this goal can be best achieved by letting them working remotely, which effectively happened because of the public health situation. Increasingly, workers are bending their jobs to fit their lifestyles, and that is certainly the case here at Mad Hedge Fund Trader.
How else can I send off a Trade Alert while hanging from the face of a Swiss Alp?
Cloud storage services, such as Google Drive, offer exactly this kind of flexibility for employees.
With data stored online, it's easy for employees to log into a cloud portal, work on the data they need to, and then log off when they're done. This way a single project can be worked on by a global team, the work handed off from time zone to time zone until it's done.
It also makes them work more efficiently, saving money for penny-pinching entrepreneurs.
Better Collaboration and Communication
In today's business environment, it's common practice for employees to collaborate and communicate with co-workers located around the world.
For example, they may have to work on the same client proposal together or provide feedback on training documents. Cloud-based tools from DocuSign, Dropbox, and Google Drive make collaboration and document management a piece of cake.
These products, which all offer free entry-level versions, allow users to access the latest versions of any document so they can stay on top of real-time changes which can help businesses to better manage workflow, regardless of geographical location.
Data Protection
Another important reason to move to the cloud is for better protection of your data, especially in the event of a natural disaster. Hurricane Sandy wreaked havoc on local data centers in New York City, forcing many websites to shut down their operations for days.
And we haven’t talked about the recent ransomware attacks by Eastern Europeans on energy company Colonial Pipeline and meat producer JBS Foods.
The cloud simply routes traffic around problem areas as if, yes, they have just been destroyed by a nuclear attack.
It's best to move data to the cloud, to avoid such disruptions because there your data will be stored in multiple locations.
This redundancy makes it so that even if one area is affected, your operations don't have to capitulate, and data remains accessible no matter what happens. It's a system called deduplication.
Lower Overhead
The cloud can save businesses a lot of money.
By outsourcing data storage to cloud providers, businesses save on capital and maintenance costs, money that in turn can be used to expand the business. Setting up an in-house data center requires tens of thousands of dollars in investment, and that's not to mention the maintenance costs it carries.
Plus, considering the security, reduced lag, up-time and controlled environments that providers such as Amazon's AWS have, creating an in-house data center seems about as contemporary as a buggy whip, a corset, or a Model T.
The cloud is where you want to be.
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
March 18, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE FUTURE IS HERE)
(NO CODE)
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
March 16, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE GENIUS AT SOFTBANK GETS EXPOSED)
(SFTBY), (ARKK), (DIDI), (BABA), (CPNG)
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