Mad Hedge Technology Letter
October 20, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(NETFLIX STILL ADDING VIEWERS)
(NFLX)
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
October 20, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(NETFLIX STILL ADDING VIEWERS)
(NFLX)
Netflix (NFLX) is reaching close to 1 billion TV fans globally with their content, and that can obviously generate a lot of virility for great pieces of content.
That being said, the content has to deliver. Yet that’s what Netflix has essentially done from the beginning, repeatedly offering world-class content that is consumed in nanoseconds.
If you think about the big picture, NFLX is at 213 million subscribers and that doesn’t make a dent compared to pay-TV households, ex-China.
But NFLX certainly believes they can match pay-TV households, and that aspiration signals plenty of room for growth.
Streaming is developing at a breathtaking pace, all kinds of devices and competitors helping that market grow, and it’s not just NFLX even though many of us live in a NFLX-centric world.
Then when I think about what’s out there in terms of competition — competition of content because NFLX doesn’t live in a vacuum.
Allowing to scale with this robust network and offering titles like Squid Game a chance to go viral really just signals overperformance for the NFLX business as a whole.
The most incredible part is the system that NFLX built from scratch that has turned into a highly distributed business model when it was NFLX’s Korean team two years ago that commissioned the hit show.
Just the synergy in that is great for NFLX, while really driving a narrative of a strong international audience that is digesting the Netflix content engine.
To that, I must give NFLX management credit for pushing hard into the content creation business and they have really made miracles happen up against the pandemic and all, but now with the team wrestling with the post-COVID, how do things move forward?
It all comes back to if NFLX can be that first choice in entertainment, then ultimately, that's what's driving that secular growth from linear to streaming entertainment and specifically NFLX’s platform.
The NFLX team recognized something that nobody else did and created an environment for that creator to make a great show.
They pretty much found the best content creators, handed them boatloads of cash, and said go make something kickass and they did.
Hollywood has been notorious for not only selling out but for micromanaging content creators and suffocating the creation process.
Clearly, when creative artists are not given the freedom to create, it negatively impacts the end-product, and that’s a pivotal reason linear television and Hollywood are now chasing NFLX.
NFLX is now the King of content going viral and going viral is really hard to predict, but it's super powerful when it happens, and they deliver the goods to be able to deliver that much viewing when viewers storm NFLX’s platform to consumer adjacent content that turns into binge-watching.
And you have people talk about it in ravenous terms that you can spoof it on Saturday Night Live because it's so in the zeitgeist.
Few companies in the world can accomplish that.
Now it’s not only Korea’s Squid Game, but NFLX is churning out the viral hits like with La Casa de Papel from Spain, with Lupin from France, with the film Blood Red Sky from Germany, from Sex Education in the U.K., where the stories of the world can increasingly come from anywhere in the world.
NFLX has systemized a way to build great hits.
Non-English content viewing has grown three times since NFLX started in 2008 making content.
Installing new storytellers into the world from everywhere in the world is supercharging the business model and that’s why we are experiencing a massive melt-up in NFLX shares.
“Often you have to rely on intuition.” – Said Founder and Former CEO of Microsoft Bill Gates
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
October 18, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE BEST CLOUD SECURITY GROWTH STOCK TODAY)
(CRWD)
Today’s sophisticated hackers are going “beyond malware” to breach organizations.
These hackers are increasingly relying on hard-to-detect methods such as credential theft and tools that are already part of the victim’s environment.
Falcon is the preeminent security platform built by CrowdStrike (CRWD) to stop breaches via a unified set of cloud-delivered technologies that prevent all types of attacks.
Falcon is the major reason why this tech stock is growing so rapidly and why many investors are jumping on the bandwagon.
The stock is up over 400% in the past 5 years, and this is just the beginning of its growth.
CrowdStrike Falcon responds to malicious challenges with a powerful yet lightweight solution.
It unifies next-generation antivirus, endpoint detection and response, cyber threat intelligence, and managed threat hunting capabilities.
Management’s approach to stopping breaches with the Falcon platform is foundational to CrowdStrike's leadership position and maintaining the overperformance which many investors have been impressed with.
Using AI, machine learning, and an intelligent lightweight agent, the Falcon platform defends against today's most sophisticated threats with unmatched speed and simplicity.
Simply put, companies need to employ a holistic breach prevention strategy rather than overly relying on malware prevention.
Nearly every breach you have ever heard of had two things in common, the victims had both a firewall and an antivirus solution, which is why management decided to build the Falcon platform from the ground up to stop breaches and not just prevent malware.
Meanwhile, competitors have fallen further behind as they continue to blindly promote a strategy that relies on malware prevention versus a comprehensive solution, focused on people, process, and technology that stops breaches.
Today, more than half of the detections analyzed were not malware-based.
Attackers are increasingly attempting to accomplish objectives without using malware.
They are exploiting the proliferation of vulnerabilities and abusing systemic weaknesses in identity architecture to get on the system and then move laterally.
This makes it more difficult for legacy and next-gen malware-focused products to be effective because they are not focused on breach prevention.
To further demonstrate my point, I'd like to share a situation with a certain unnamed company using Microsoft's legacy security products that failed to rise to the challenges of today's adversaries and ended up unnecessarily costing them.
This company experienced a long and difficult deployment process, particularly in low bandwidth environments where endpoint performance was critical.
Notably frustrated, this company began to evaluate alternatives when it was unfortunately hit by ransomware that encrypted their primary and backup data, causing weeks of business disruption and a financial impact estimated to be in the tens to hundreds of millions of dollars.
This is a typical story that is told to CrowdStrike and more will follow as the volume of companies ill-prepared is voluminous.
Many of these damaging experiences by companies are then followed by their in-house IT teams connecting with CrowdStrike’s incident response team to remediate and stabilize their IT operations — followed up with deploying Falcon Complete across their environment.
The Falcon platform processes approximately 1 trillion events per day from millions of agents, delivering unprecedented security insights.
This empowers Falcon to benefit from crowdsourcing and economies of scale unlike any other solution on the market today, which I believe enables AI algorithms to be uniquely effective.
CrowdStrike’s success hinges on growing leadership as the trusted security partner of choice and especially growing the Falcon platform.
Several outside reports have praised Falcon Complete and recognized its strength in its breach prevention warranty, fully remote automated remediation, breadth of threat hunting capabilities, and strong machine learning and artificial intelligence capabilities for detection and response.
The net result of focusing on the Falcon platform to increase revenue upside is the subscription revenue growing 71% over Q2 to reach $315.8 million.
While it’s understandable that subscription gross margin fluctuates quarter to quarter, management expects it to remain solidly within an increased target model range of 77% to 82%.
For the next quarter, CrowdStrike expects total revenue to be in the range of $358 million to $365.3 million, reflecting a year-over-year growth rate of 54% to 57%.
Management has reaffirmed that demand for their Falcon platform is still hot, but I am not thrilled that the total revenue growth is expected to drop to the mid-50% from 70%.
Even though this drop is a seasonal adjustment, it was only just in 2018 when the company was doing $100 million in total revenue, and we are talking now about reaching $2 billion per year after almost surpassing $1 billion per year in 2020.
The stock has substantially more upside and any significant drop should be bought.
We are hovering near all-time high’s so any 5-10% drops should be bought into.
I am still highly bullish on this cloud security company and believe its best days are ahead of them.
“The right moral compass is trying hard to think about what customers want.” – Said CEO of Google Sundar Pichai
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
October 15, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(DEATH OF THE SPORTS GYM)
(PTON), (NLS), (GRMN), (LULU), (PLNT)
I hope for your sake that you don’t own a gym! — because one area that will certainly experience transformation into mainly smart products is fitness.
In the long term, this would be classified as a terrible investment, and I will tell you why.
The global digitally connected gym equipment market is projected to separate itself from the equipment of the past.
No more bench presses and barbells.
When I say smart fitness products, I am not just talking about Peloton (PTON) — though they are the trailblazer of the group.
Rising technological advancements in the fitness and gym equipment market are happening at warp speed.
Rapid digitalization of the health and fitness industry along with the increased utilization of smart machines is making products better and more efficient.
There are advantages for the consumers like storage, monitoring, and analysis of their fitness performances and the ability to log these details for future references.
New platforms will start popping up that integrate gym equipment and sports equipment along with the training and coaching software.
My personal favorite is Tonal.
This machine is ingenious and uses its smart cable machine to perform strength training exercises.
It’s essentially a 24-inch iPad plastered on the wall with cables and is the Tesla of the smart gym industry with onscreen coaches that guide you through your workout.
Tonal’s AI automatically adjusts weight based on a user’s strength during workouts. Rather than physical weights, Tonal uses electromagnetic force to produce up to 200 pounds of resistance.
Artificial intelligence (AI) is there to track everything you do, analyze it, and decide what you're going to do next, so you end up getting a much better workout, in a shorter amount of time, in the convenience of your home.
With precise data measurement, Tonal can measure the quality of every single repetition, decide how much weight one should lift, and adjust weight in one-pound increments.
To visit their website, click here. (https://www.tonal.com/)
Treadmills are anticipated to hold the largest revenue shares of the market and dominate the market segment on the account of rising instances of cardiovascular diseases.
Strength training equipment is expected to rapidly increase sales by the consumers as well as the increasing inclination of regular fitness enthusiasts over bodybuilding and strength building.
As for specific smart gym stocks, Peloton (PTON) and Nautilus, Inc. (NLS) had huge run-ups in 2020 as business boomed during the health crisis.
These two stocks have come back to life during the “reopening trade.” They after going through a consolidation phase in 2021, but I do believe it is a good time to buy during a low patch.
Conversely, a gym franchise stock Planet Fitness, Inc. (PLNT) had a terrible 2020 because of the mandated closures but has followed up a bad year with a sensational year as in-person gym activity has reversed.
However, I believe the situation will be quite grim in the long haul for in-person gym aficionados, as Tonal proves, gyms will migrate into the confines of our homes simply because the technology now is TOO GOOD to justify getting in a car to drive 30 minutes to the gym, spending 15 minutes changing in the locker rooms, only to then start a workout.
Tonal can almost fit in a kitchen pantry — it’s an iPad with attached cables and nothing more than that.
Its compact nature will attract many gym enthusiasts and one doesn’t need to allocate a whole room for a home gym, even a hallway can suffice with Tonal.
Tonal can get better, but I specifically thought the programmed training dialogue from the A.I. trainers were cheesy.
But it’s good enough that it lays down the marker for in-home smart gyms to gain market share in the future, which is why I believe franchise gyms will be made redundant.
Unfortunately, Tonal is a private company and Lebron James just made a big investment to buy a piece of it.
Alternatively, a direct play that I like for the smart gym is Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) who produces a variety of smart fitness products and specializes in navigation. This stock is immune to the in-person or at-home gym question because their products will get used no matter what.
A second derivative play of the smart gym is the clothes that are needed to work out.
Although not a tech stock, workout apparel stock Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU) made hay last year and their stock has basically moved from the lower left to the upper right for the past 10 years with minimal volatility.
So does this mean the end of the sports gym as we know it?
I am not calling for the death of gyms yet, but we have definitely started down that path albeit it incrementally and once Tonal lookalike products become a little more affordable, kiss goodbye to many people going to the gym.
“Technology's always taken jobs out of the system, and what you hope is that technology's going to put those jobs back in, too. That's what we call productivity.” – Said CEO of Salesforce Marc Benioff
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
October 13, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(AMERICA’S NEW SOCIAL CREDIT SYSTEM IS HERE)
(ABNB), (PYPL), (FB), (GOOLG), (AMZN)
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