“Men have become the tools of their tools.” – Said American Philosopher Henry David Thoreau
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
June 18, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(A CROWN JEWEL OF AD TECH)
(ROKU)
If Apple is a $2.2 trillion company, then Roku growing from today’s $47 billion to $100 billion is highly likely.
I would agree that the digital migration and transformation are mainly funneled into the profit models of the big tech players, but tech companies created from the ilk of Roku aren’t shabby either.
The TV streaming platform Roku has a 3-year revenue growth rate of 54% showing they are a true growth firm no matter what metric you want to measure them against.
The pandemic supercharged their business with revenue growth rates soaring to a record 79% year over year to $574.2 million.
Roku users streamed 18.3 billion hours in the quarter, an increase of 49% year over year. Platform monetization continued to increase with average revenue per use (ARPU) of $32.14 on a trailing 12-month basis, up 32% year over year.
This was in large part because they added 2.4 million incremental active accounts in Q1, ending the quarter with 53.6 million.
The success can also be attributed to a secular shift in the advertising industry.
Historically, the biggest impediment or headwind to Roku’s ad business growth has been TV buyers' buying patterns.
Buyers traditionally tend to prefer traditional linear TV versus a bold new phenomenon-like streaming.
Certainly, there's a gap there as viewers move over to streaming versus the ad dollars.
That gap is now closing and there’s still room to expand.
For example, according to Nielsen, in March ratings, linear TV ratings for adults 18 to 24 were down 22%. Q1 TV ad spending was down 11%, according to MediaRadar. Meanwhile, Roku was able to double monetized video ad impressions on the platform.
Ad spending by major agency holding companies with Roku more than doubled. We saw strength really up and down Roku’s ad business. An area of strength is inevitably the entertainment side of Roku’s ad business and it’s to the point where every major direct-to-consumer service has launched.
Those launches have created great opportunities for Roku to partner with major service providers, HBO Max, Discovery Plus, and the who’s who to really drive the adoption of these services, and these partners are leaning in closely and investing with Roku to promote their services to Roku’s users.
Another example is Home Chef, a performance-based advertiser, who invested with Roku and saw 2.4 times return on ad spend and then came back and significantly invested more with Roku after the preliminary success.
Similar case studies pop up like that left and right.
What we are seeing now is the reallocation of TV budgets, as well as digital and social budgets toward streaming and it is here to stay.
As the sales growth rate has gone from the mid 50% to the high 70%, Roku forecasts the same type of outperformance which calls for robust growth with total net revenue of $615 million at the midpoint, up 73% year over year; and total gross profit of $300 million at the midpoint, up 104% year over year, implying an overall gross margin of approximately 49%.
As streaming becomes the dominant source of entertainment around the globe, advertisers are moving much of their traditional TV budgets to over-the-top media services (OTT). The need for programmatic, measured, and scalable advertising opportunities across devices is more important than ever.
This bodes well for continuing to be able to command premium cost per mille (CPMs).
Advertisers will increasingly be looking not just at the top-line CPM that they buy the media at, but the effective cost, cost per site visit, cost per product purchase.
And what that means long term is that, unlike traditional TV, streaming CPMs aren't just going to be sort of one price rules them all type scenario, but rather a whole spectrum of prices where the pricing into the auction is ultimately dictated by the tactic that the advertiser is executing on and the outcome that they're trying to drive.
As Roku delivers enhanced tools to navigate this type of auction and pricing and allow effective strategies to flourish, they will benefit from all of this.
One note investors need to take heed of is that even though Roku anticipates revenue growth rates in the second half of 2021 will be robust, they will be “at a slower rate than the first half.”
The reason they give for this is because they expect the “outperformance of content distribution to normalize in Q2 and in the back half of the year.”
If we look at Roku’s stock chart, Roku has come back drastically from $470 in mid-February to $350 today as the market had to absorb perceived higher interest rate fears and accelerating inflation.
There was a swift rotation out of high growth names during this period causing a rapid pullback in Roku.
Theoretically, the upside is capped in 2021 in the second half because growth rates will moderate, and the stock will be reliant on a Nasdaq lunge forward as in index to carry them back to the highs of February.
The low-hanging fruit has been harvested because the premium entertainment deliverers have already signed up for the Roku platform.
Thus, don’t expect any paradigm-shifting announcement in 2021 but expect solid earnings and higher profitability.
I would put new capital to work around the support levels of $315 or $300.
Roku is still performing at growth rates in the high 70% year-over-year and has been a profitable company since Q3 2020.
These two trends will stick and if you remember in 2018, I recommended this stock at $26 and still love it at around $300.
“Technology is just a tool. In terms of getting the kids working together and motivating them, the teacher is the most important.” – Said Co-Founder of Microsoft Bill Gates
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
June 16, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(SMARTPHONES AREN’T GOING AWAY)
(AMZN), (TSLA), (FB), (GOOGL), (AAPL), (NFLX)
The United States has long been the world leader in science and technology, but lately, they are falling asleep at the wheel.
At a psychological level, the feeling of threat has led to all sorts of unintended consequences, and it has been no accident we are seeing at a trade war.
The one key ingredient that has been missing is sustained investment in our research enterprise.
Without relentless investment into scientific and technological leadership, don’t expect any new breakthroughs, and the stagnation of US technology is evident in the evolution of a product that goes on sale to the consumer.
What happened to 5G? It’s been hyped for the past 3 years, but people have felt no need to upgrade for the spotty 5G that is available.
What happened to automated cars?
I thought by now, we would be able to get around with our flying cars.
What we do have are bigger iPads, faster iMacs, and the Microsoft Surface which is a tablet with an attachable keyboard.
I wouldn’t call that success.
But what the pandemic did was allow these big tech firms to get away without innovating, and I am not talking about the incremental innovation that makes a Model 3 Tesla 4% better than the prior iteration.
The hype of 10 years of digital transformation into one year has been profusely disseminated but misunderstood.
I can tell you that we didn’t experience 10 years of digital development pulled forward into 1 year.
That definitely was not the case over the past 15 months.
More accurately said, we had 10 years of expandable margin opportunities squeezed into one and the biggest beneficiary of this is the balance sheet of big tech.
What we did was give a reason for tech to not ditch this over-reliance on the smartphone which is going strong into its 13th year.
It was 2007 when Steve Jobs delivered us the iPhone and by 2008, many consumers were using it.
In 2021, the iPhone and variants still have a stranglehold on human life and the way business models are put together.
That won’t go away because of the pandemic and now these big tech behemoths have no reason to dip too far into capital expenditures.
Not only that, but they are also cutting back spend on office space and business travel too while sneakily reducing salaries of remote employees who move to cheaper cities.
In fact, the pandemic will elongate the smartphone dynasty, and any other meaningful tech has been put back on the backburner for the time being.
Then there are companies like Uber that are busy sorting out its decimated ride-sharing business before they can even dream about flying uber cars.
So, I am not surprised that the House Science Committee is taking up two bipartisan bills to try to push the agenda forward.
The need to act is best captured by two data points. First, as much as 85% of America’s long-term economic growth is due to advances in science and technology. There’s a direct connection between investment in research and development and job growth in the U.S.
Second, China increased public R&D by 56% between 2011 and 2016, but U.S. investment in the same period fell by 12% in absolute terms. China has likely surpassed the U.S. in total R&D spending and — through both investment and cyber theft — is working to overtake the U.S. as the global leader in science and technology.
America’s continued scientific leadership requires a comprehensive and strategic approach to research and development that provides long-term increased investment and stability across the research ecosystem. And it must focus on evolving technologies that are crucial to our national and economic security, like semiconductors and quantum sciences.
Now that the U.S. government has identified this issue as a national security issue, money will be thrown at the problem, but don’t expect anything to change tomorrow.
We are still a way off from forcing big tech to change their profit models and that will happen when they need to keep up with the next big thing.
There is no big next thing yet.
Until then, expect more incremental progress from your smartphone and Tesla.
It’s certainly not a bad situation to wield a smartphone that is 4% better each year or drive a Tesla that performs just a bit better as well.
Effectively, these enormous and profitable revenue models will stay in place and investors have no reason to worry about big tech moving forward.
This benefits the likes of Amazon, Tesla, Facebook, Google, Apple, and Netflix.
The only risk to U.S. tech is a threat that the U.S. government is absorbing themselves. What a great industry to be in.
Net-net, this is a great win for big tech and I don’t expect anything to drastically change, but get ready for a lot more digital ads in your daily consumption of digital content and more of the same products.
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
June 14, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE TRUTH ABOUT TECH IN POST-COVID)
(WORK FROM HOME)
The pandemic and technology are precisely why the U.S. economy has regained its golden crown at the top of the global economy and will create some distance in 2021.
I’ll explain why.
Sure, this sounds off considering that many viral new stories published these days are at the extreme limits of everything from society, politics, business, entertainment, and the list goes on.
But the truth is, instead of a handful of U.S. coastal cities mopping up the capital and opportunities, the effort for U.S. accelerated growth and the network effects juxtaposed to it, have spread their tentacles across the country.
To understand how the U.S. has gotten on, we must first look across the Pacific and Atlantic at how other “rich” countries have navigated the pandemic and inoculation effort.
Work time is Face time 24/7 and shut up about anything else or you can jump off the office roof.
That’s me welcoming you to the land of the rising sun — Japan.
Crazily enough, even in a pandemic spiraling out of control in an aging society, business conducted in-person is still more guaranteed than anything else.
Work from home?
Are you crazy? This is still a country that relies on fax machines and a mountain of paperwork to get things done.
The recent “modernization” effort came up with taking away the ink-based wooden stamp to sign off final contracts, instead, replacing it with ink pen signatures.
Bravo!
That happened last year and essentially is a microcosm of the snail’s rate of change in Japan’s economy. There’s a reason why the Mandarins passed them up so quickly with no fightback.
Tradition dies hard in places like these.
It’s a traditional business culture still run on World War 2 structures with management who grew up in the 1960s still forging the path for Japan Inc.
Japan still pays according to seniority and merit is just a cute term to banter about when talking to your cadre of lowly paid subordinates who are usually disenfranchised and overworked.
Demand for in-person interaction among employees and with external clients and suppliers is especially strong among older and smaller companies.
Considering 99.7% of Japan’s businesses are considered small, or medium-sized, then it pretty much means all of Japan.
What they don’t tell you is, these “meetings” also involve a copious amount of overdrinking, overspending, and incessant smoking to please clients who were born in the 1950s.
This is all in the name to create trust between the two parties.
If you watch snippets of Japanese news feeds over the past 16 months, it seems as if there has been no reduction in foot traffic when the cameras zoom in on main transport hubs.
Your eyes aren’t failing you.
Sadly, Japan just missed its best chance to modernize business practices and the next pandemic might be too far away to offer that next chance for wholesale changes.
Japan will continue its downwards trajectory with a niche specialty in robots while the living standard for the median Japanese person continues to drop precipitously and the graying of the society continues unabated.
If you thought Europe has been better, then yes, you are right. In many instances, remote work was allowed all across Europe during the pandemic, especially for finance jobs that include accounting and financial planning.
But recent surveys show that European management is lusting for a strict 100% in-person work schedule to mitigate cross-border tax problems such as German workers relocating to Poland to take advantage of the lower cost of living and the company ultimately becoming liable for Polish taxes.
The bigger problem with Europe’s economy is that it’s leveraged too much towards global tourism and the government does everything it can to disrupt innovation because of overly bureaucratic structures.
Europe accounts for 50% of the world’s tourist arrivals and is the most visited region in the world, according to UNWTO.
It accounts for 50% of the world’s tourist arrivals and 37% of global tourism receipts, it is the most visited region in the world.
The continent contributed around €1 trillion tourist revenue in 2019 and 18 million tourist jobs and that literally stopped in a heartbeat in March 2020.
These are 18 million jobs that can’t just move to work-from-home.
Instead of developing in-house tech companies, European regulators have sought maneuvers just to tax the U.S. ones to satisfy a thirst for revenue.
Europe, aside from Spotify and a handful of U.K. and Netherlands-based chip manufacturers, don’t have any big-time tech companies.
Remember that these tech companies usually contribute to the lions’ share of earnings growth and profits in the U.S. and China.
Instead of creating these jobs, European workers are mostly servicing U.S. companies from Western European R&D centers like Apple in Germany and offices such as Facebook’s London office.
Chinese companies in Europe like Huawei almost never hire non-Chinese people unless it's some low-level translating work.
At the onset of the pandemic, many New Yorkers loaded up the car, drove down to Florida or even over to Vermont, bought a house sight unseen, and started life anew from scratch.
That is the beauty of a true borderless state business and personal delivering synergies to the local population.
The EU of 27 states certainly is from this utopian seamless state.
I have a close colleague that was hired from a big American energy firm in Prague to an American cybersecurity corporation in Vienna, and he has not been able to file his application for 10 months even though the cities are a few hours train ride away.
Why?
Because the Austrian Embassy in Prague doesn’t process Non-EU citizens’ applications, even though he has a valid residence permit that allows him to work, and he has not been able to physically cross the border to file it directly in Vienna because of Machiavellian border restrictions.
Once filed, this application will take 3-4 months to process, all while he is just a few hours away.
When he finally gets authorization for a new Austrian work permit, he is required by Czech law to give a 10-week resignation notice to his employer.
This was on top of the botched virus roll-out which meant that many European state health systems thought it was a good idea to force citizens and residents alike to pre-register for the vaccine, register again, then make registration based on social security card numbers, and then change the registration interface on the website every 7-10 days.
Only to receive the first vaccine, then be required to wait in line for a whole day to confirm the address the immunity card should be sent to, only to get to the front of the line to find out the many hospitals didn’t upload the proper data into the database.
The excuse for this was that the nurses are too busy giving the vaccine shots.
Then, only to realize that receiving the card in the mail often didn’t happen then going back to the same office to ask if the card has even been mailed out yet, only for them to have no idea where your card is.
And that was just the first vaccine shot!
It’s not surprising that many Europeans in droves are skipping their 2nd shot because of the ridiculous bureaucracy involved in getting just 1 done let alone 2.
It’s comical to think that America actually FELL BEHIND others in the past 15 months.
The reality is that the swift recovery from and after the advent of the Pfizer vaccine has just been too powerful and too potent to think that the old world of Europe and Asia with outdated infrastructure and attitudes towards business progressivism can outdo the Yanks.
From my contacts in Europe, there has never been more of a desire to work for a European-based American corporation because they are still viewed as the best option.
And when you realize that many of the U.S. work-from-home initiatives are being transformed into hybrid work cultures with 2-3 days per week of facetime LIKE THEY SHOULD BE, it sure beats my colleague whose Austrian contract explicitly states face time 24/7 is waiting for him in Vienna with his contract crafted by European managers.
At least he is not working in Tokyo.
A JAPANESE LOW-TECH APPROACH STILL PERSISTS IN A BRAVE NEW WORLD!
“The AI technology will keep you out of harm's way. That is why we believe in an AI car that drives for you.” – Said CEO of Nvidia Jensen Huang
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
June 11, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(DON’T FALL INTO THE LORDSTOWN TRAP)
(RIDE), (NKLA), (VLDR), (TSLA)
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