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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Apple Ramps Up Product Development

Tech Letter

Last year was The Identifier for Advertisers (IDFA), a random device identifier assigned by Apple to a user’s device.

The IDFA is used for tracking and identifying a user (without revealing personal information).

And now – it’s the IP address.

Apple will start redirecting web traffic through two separate servers in order to conceal a user’s IP address.

This product will be known as Private Relay and will be part of a new service called iCloud Plus.

This could be one way to prevent fingerprinting, a banned identification method Apple has yet to enforce against on iOS.

Although IP addresses aren’t the only element used in fingerprinting, they are one of the critical parts.

Apple says the feature will ensure that all traffic leaving devices is encrypted so that no one can read or intercept it.

The news comes one year after Apple upended the personal data status quo, when it announced plans for the Private Relay, along with a smorgasbord of supplemental privacy-based announcements.

Apple has made privacy one of its hallmarks as it drives innovation into the future.

Apple also has new privacy system controls on deck that will hide a user’s IP address from third-party trackers within Safari and on the Mail app.

Now, a person’s IP address will be hidden so that email senders can't connect the account to other online activity or to someone’s location.

Senders will also be prevented from seeing whether the receiver has opened an email.

Apple will also obscure IP addresses on Safari, which already blocks third-party cookies by default with Intelligent Tracking Prevention.

This layers well with the new Safari Privacy Report, where people will be able to analyze which trackers are prevented from profiling them.

So Unified ID 2.0 initiative and any email-based identity solution would be able to circumvent these privacy tools, right?

Wrong.

Apple is planning to launch a default feature for Mail, Safari and iCloud called Hide My Mail that allows people to create unique random email addresses that forward to their personal inbox.

Users can set up as many email addresses as they want and delete them at any time.

So what does this mean for the tech world?

Ad distributors like Twitter and Facebook must be tearing their hair out that they won’t be able to track users that use Apple products.

Apple is also making a more concerted effort to block other time-tested method of extracting personal data.

And I will tell you, it’s only going to get harder for Facebook.

It’s clear that Apple is moving into Facebook territory with the spawning of products that look similar to Facebook features as well.

IMessage is freshening up too, with new features that make it easier to share web links, photos, Apple Music tracks, and Apple News articles with your contacts.

CEO of Apple Tim Cook is known to personally dislike the way Facebook does business and it appears many of the new features are directly undermining the existence of Facebook.

It was only a matter of time that big tech behemoths start meaningfully stepping on each other’s toes.

There’s only so much revenue out there for everyone and this proves it.

Cook has piled onto the data privacy narrative and finally making it a reality while many tech companies are just banging the drum about it but still barely moving a finger about it.

We are entering into a phase of technology where firms late on the privacy pivot could fall behind dramatically and even though Facebook is incredibly profitable, that doesn’t mean they always will be.

The health push also can’t go unnoticed.

A few years ago, Apple added a feature to the Apple Watch to call for help if you fall.

Now, the Health app will quantify the chances of you falling.

The company said these quantifiable predictions are scientifically validated, and Apple will send an alert to warn you of a forecasted fall.

The Apple Health App will have more functionality in the future, and they are adding a way to share health data with close family.

This has been the trend for other big tech companies and the news is on the heels of Amazon’s announcement that they are going full steam into the drug prescription business which is bad news for companies like Walgreens and CVS.

We are seeing big tech companies branch out like no other and Apple is on the front foot while Facebook is still ringfenced and only saved by the growth of Instagram.

As we know, these social platforms are an ephemeral phenomenon before, sometimes glitzier and trendier catches fire.

Apple appears to be breaking out in the range and any pullback to $125 should be bought.

This remains one of the preeminent tech companies and the pace of product development, although not as stunning as Amazon, is right up there and outpaces Facebook by a mile.

Every serious tech investor should buy and hold Apple long-term, and we are on the cusp of a buy-back cycle that should help the stock’s price action.

apple privacy

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

June 9, 2021 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“I force people to have coffee with me, just because I don't trust that a friendship can be maintained without any other senses besides a computer or cellphone screen.” – Said American Actor John Cusack

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/john-cusack.png 512 438 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-06-09 11:00:412021-06-09 14:53:32June 9, 2021 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

June 7, 2021

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
June 7, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE CIRCUSIFICATION OF TEHC STOCKS)
(TSLA), (GME), (RH), (BTC), (ETH)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-06-07 15:04:552021-06-07 15:47:53June 7, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Circusification of Tech Stocks

Tech Letter

The younger U.S. generations went from almost not knowing what the stock market was to overnight dominance of it.

They now make the rules.

Millions of new brokerage accounts have been wielded since the start of the pandemic.

Trillions in value transferred from taxpayers and the Federal Reserve into brokerage accounts at Robinhood and Coinbase.

More dollar bills are funneled into these accounts with every paycheck.

The stock market and the generations above it are still trying to figure out what just happened.

Leverage is another thing this generation Googled and figured out how to harness too during the pandemic.

This generation is truly fearless, or they haven’t been trading long enough to understand what it feels like to lose all your money.

It doesn’t matter because the only thing that matters is what they pay attention to and what’s irrelevant.

If they choose to prop up a 10-word Elon Musk tweet into bulletproof trading strategies, how will you stop them?

If they want Gamestop (GME) to go from $17 before the pandemic to $270 today with even this morning trading in it up 10%, how do you stop something like this?

The answer is you can’t.

How do you convince newly minted investors that diversification makes sense when the first stock they ever bought, Tesla (TSLA), rose 800% while everything else barely moved?

Generations before what is going on now, investors held a series of adages near and dear to them.

Every generation puts its own spin on trading, but what we are witnessing today is that rules are not important anymore when the pace of technology changes every industry to the point that these industries are now unrecognizable.

The new rules mean there are no rules anymore and that’s the beauty or hideous side of investing now, whether you like it or not.

It used to be that “serious” investors religiously followed value investing, which was pioneered by Benjamin Graham and the U.S. emerged from the Great Depression, and his two seminal books were investment bibles.

1934’s Security Analysis and 1949’s The Intelligent Investor laid the groundwork for a generation of contrarian investors who eschewed macroeconomic trends and market patterns, and instead focused on a company’s fundamentals, looking for cheap stocks that they would hold for 20 or even 30 years.

Legends such as Irving Kahn, John Templeton, and Warren Buffett have made value investing synonymous with successful investing for decades.

Now these people who held up these books as bibles can’t understand markets.

They have seen bull and bear markets or all sorts, but nothing like this before.

We locked everyone in their homes for a year and gave them a virtual life to live on their screens.

Why should we be surprised if younger generations treat money and investments like tokens in a video game?

If you had opened your first brokerage account in the spring of 2020, you would most likely have opened it at Robinhood.

You downloaded an app, transferred $500 in from your couch, and pressed some buttons and looked at the screen with some digital numbers that said you had a nice profit.  

With a Robinhood account, your first exposure to cryptocurrencies does not frame them as an unproven alternative to stocks. The two stand on equal footing.

This is radically different from the experience of the Gen X and boomer investors logging in through Schwab, Fidelity, or Vanguard to check their balances or download a statement.

What we are seeing is that a new generation is creating the new conventions of the investing landscape and views stocks and crypto coins as interchangeable with equal credibility.

Now every prominent news site is leading with crypto news more often than not and ad platforms like Twitter have said that crypto ads are their highest growth product.  

This phenomenon is here to stay because the same will go for any young investor that opens up the incremental brokerage account to trade from their phone tomorrow and the next day after that.

These people are taking profits from Tesla and rolling them into trades like Dogecoin, Ethereum (ETH), and Bitcoin (BTC).

This behavior is starting to become normalized and positive liquidity event in alternative assets will spawn more volume trading in these very assets that were called as “toxic” and a “scam.”

The laughable thing is just one of the 48 U.S.-listed stocks in Berkshire Hathaway portfolio, consumer discretionary RH (RH), topped the price gains of Bitcoin over the past 12 months.

Therefore, don’t ask this generation about the annual average returns of the “safe” 60/40 stock-and-bond portfolios touted by planners and advisers.

Don’t ask this generation to read the Intelligent Investor because it’s outdated. Assets aren’t trading on fundamentals anymore and the Fed printing money like it's their job is fueling a massive tidal wave of new capital into crypto like it's not even funny.  

It doesn’t make sense anymore to the Warren Buffets and Charles Munger.

When asked about Bitcoin directly at the Berkshire Hathaway's annual shareholders meeting earlier this month in Los Angeles, he said “I'm going to dodge that question.”  

And now, it’s expanded into the exurbs to include blank-check companies, venture-backed startups, tradable bits of computer code, and investable software protocols.

Your father’s stock market is never coming back and the one from before the pandemic isn’t coming either.

The stock market is still one of the only games in town which makes it hard to avoid for any American who prioritizes wealth accumulation.

The pandemic leveled the playing field for crypto and they used that new oxygen to mint many new millionaires and billionaires who now harness capital that has the potential to be reinvested into the asset landscape.

If it’s turned into a 3-ring circus because of a fusional 1-off event, then better figure out how this new circus works earlier than later.

investing

 

investing

 

investing

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/bitcoin-jun7.png 772 936 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-06-07 15:02:272021-06-13 15:07:20The Circusification of Tech Stocks
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

June 7, 2021 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“Getting information off the Internet is like taking a drink from a fire hydrant.” – Said American Entrepreneur Mitch Kapor

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/mitch-kapor.png 436 304 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-06-07 15:00:222021-06-07 15:46:25June 7, 2021 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

June 4, 2021

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
June 4, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(RIDING THE COATTAILS OF ELLIOT MANAGEMENT)
(DBX), (TWTR), (EBAY), (CRM), (BOX)

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Riding the Coattails of Elliot Management

Tech Letter

Renowned Vulture Fund Elliott Management is at it again, looking to feast on the frail like the predator fund it is.

It was recently announced they own a large stake in cloud provider Dropbox (DBX) and has been holding private discussions with the file-sharing service provider for some time.

The hedge fund owns a stake of more than 10% which is valued at more than $800 million, the source said, declining to reveal the exact size of the investment.

Dropbox currently has a market cap of around $11 billion.

This is a cloud company that allows users to store documents, videos, and photos online, listed its shares in March 2018 at $21 a share.

Elliott has previously gotten their way at other tech companies like Twitter (TWTR) and eBay (EBAY).

Now Elliott Management is assumed to own the second biggest holding in Dropbox after CEO Drew Houston.

Elliot’s previous 13-F filing form has shown they are scooping up shares of Dropbox.

Dropbox shares also gained in March on news of a potential takeover that never came to fruition, and it smells a lot like that was Elliot.

I have heard other analysts mention Dropbox as a short-listed acquisition candidate for a handful of big players.

An acquisition looked close especially after Salesforce (CRM) announced the purchase of Slack Technologies and it’s logical that Dropbox could have been a retaliation purchase for a bigger tech company looking to keep pace with Salesforce's acquisitive thirst.

Elliot Management overtook Vanguard Group Inc. as the largest shareholder outside of Houston. Vanguard had a stake just below 10% as of March 31, according to Bloomberg.

The hedge fund has not made it clear whether it is seeking board seats on Dropbox’s board or other changes at the company.

But I will tell you there is a standard playbook that Elliot loves to roll out each time they buy into a tech company.

These changes almost always revolve around switching management and squeezing out more efficiencies in operations.

They even threatened Founder and CEO of Twitter Jack Dorsey to become more attuned to revenue acceleration so he could keep his job.

There are those who want to play the moral compass card out there, but I can say that almost any tech company Elliot Management has bought into experience a significant boost in asset appreciation 3-6 months after the acquisition.

Elliot is hyper-targeted in what they do, and they usually seek out management who has become too comfortable in their routine.

I believe they do not go after tech companies if they feel they cannot boost the underlying stock shares by 30% within a year.

They have a brilliant track record and any tech investor who doesn’t want to overcomplicate tech investing buys the same tech companies Elliot acquires.

Why?

Because changes are in the pipeline and every management or board seat change is usually met with a 5-7% surge in share price.

What’s not to like about that?

Then there are many up days on the operational front from cutting costs, and forcing through other changes that are first and foremost beneficial for the stakeholders of the company.

Other vulture fund specialists do this too like Starboard Value when they launched a proxy fight earlier this year at Box (BOX), where it has nominated four directors for the three seats that are coming available this year.

To play it simple, buy into Dropbox on the next dip and hold onto shares for the first part of the turnaround.

Once the pace of changes starts to plateau, by then, you should already have a decent-sized profit and can dump the shares.

 

Elliot management

 

Elliot management

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-06-04 13:02:442021-06-13 14:40:05Riding the Coattails of Elliot Management
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

June 4, 2021 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“When I was first getting started, I told myself that there's two people in the world when it came to technology: There's the people who created it and there's everybody else.” – Said Tech Investor and Owner of an NBA Franchise Mark Cuban

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/mark-cuban.png 458 518 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-06-04 13:00:012021-06-04 14:53:00June 4, 2021 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

June 2, 2021

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
June 2, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(WHEN TO GET BACK INTO SALESFORCE?)
(CRM), (SONO), (HON), (SAP)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-06-02 15:04:082021-06-02 16:09:43June 2, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

When to Get Back Into Salesforce?

Tech Letter

Looking for that optimal balance between growth and profitability is the ideal but of course if a tech firm in that state is also leaning towards driving growth...

That company is Salesforce (CRM) and it looks attractive now after pulling back from its peak.

Investing in growth, especially in this insatiable demand environment, is simply the best thing a tech firm can do for a company.

That said, I am also a staunch believer that a focus on discipline makes for a stronger and more durable company.

Over the long term, I believe tech firms need to be able to deliver both revenue acceleration and versatility in its revenue acceleration.

That shows up for Salesforce in the $3.2 billion in cash flow on $5.96 billion in revenue which adds up to being up 74% year over year.

CRM’s numbers reflect a strong performance since the onset of the public health situation and their operating margin is producing almost as if it was completely redesigned from the bottom up.

CRM has raised its operating margin to 18% and they are on track to doing $50 billion by 2025.

Then there are unbelievable stories to digest that make readers understand the true power of CRM.

The Sonos (SONO) story is just one to absorb — they just had this 84% growth when they went to consumer using CRM products.

More importantly, how to integrate operations with a cloud platform is at the forefront of every CEO’s thinking.

This takes looking at the trends of this past year and again, the individual stories where CRM has made that big difference, like the Honeywell (HON) story when they shifted 7,000 salespeople from in-person to virtual customer meetings — customer meetings aren't going back to conference rooms only.

Then when the business environment dictates that CRM is helping through the Service Cloud, together with Field Service and Experience Cloud to enable Honeywell to seamlessly dispatch technicians for on-site product maintenance and proactive asset management, connected service partner experiences, and customer experience for scheduling appointments and instantly solving troubleshooting problems.

It’s field service capability that helped CRM to amplify an already close-knit relationship with Honeywell, and that's when management started to collaborate and say, wow, we could bring this to the aviation business in Honeywell to transform and streamline the work they do via the cloud.  

To succeed in the all-digital work-anywhere world enabling you to digitize your entire customer experience and get back to growth is the overarching goal in this incredible 2021 economy.

The outperformance really stretches across the portfolio. When we talk about the fact that of the seven-figure deals, they, on average, included more than four of CRM cloud services, meaning they are not selling individual products.

CRM’s AI Einstein started doing over 100 billion predictions per day. And it's a great example of these platform investments that CRM did multiple years ago that customers and the whole economy go digital are benefiting from.

It means every email is more personalized and every e-commerce you paid for is suited to your interest and your needs, driving growth and success for customers.

MuleSoft is now doing 4.86 billion integration transactions every day. That is up 28% quarter over quarter.

Integrating these legacy systems so customers can move faster in the face of an economy that’s shifting more rapidly than ever before shows the importance of CRM’s acquisitions as it relates to the overall value proposition of Customer 360.

Total revenue for the first quarter was $5.96 billion, up 23% year over year and CRM’s vertical strategy continues to align products to strategic industries.

In particular, we saw strength in the public sector, which continues to accelerate as governments around the world turn to Salesforce Solutions. Service Cloud demonstrated another quarter of incredible growth at scale with Q1 revenue of $1.5 billion, growing 20% year over year, and Tableau continues to perform well.

In Q1, Tableau was in eight of CRM’s top 10 deals for the company and in more than 60% of seven-figure plus deals.

The company expects Q2 revenue of $6.23 billion or approximately 21% growth year over year and CRM even raised annual revenue guidance by $250 million.

They are about to pass SAP as the largest enterprise applications company in the world. And all the analysts have their models. I know they track SAP and Salesforce.

It really shows the whole world is going digital, and customers are connecting with their customers in a new way, and everyone needs CRM to do it or get left behind.

They also need CRM’s analytics — they need integration and CRM just happens to be the leader in that area.

CRM has undergone an M&A consolidation after heavily paying for acquisitions. This earnings report signaled to investors to expect these headwinds to drop off towards the end of the year and since the stock market is forward-looking, CRM will start to transform into the buy the dip tech firm it was once before these expensive acquisitions took place.

Readers should keep an eye out for Salesforce for really any substantial pullback and long-term, this software company is a reliable revenue accumulator with a strong brand name.

salesforce

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