Mad Hedge Technology Letter
December 16, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE NEW SALESFORCE)
(NOW), (CRM), (SAP), (ORCL), (IBM), (MSFT)
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
December 16, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE NEW SALESFORCE)
(NOW), (CRM), (SAP), (ORCL), (IBM), (MSFT)
During Bill McDermott’s leadership as CEO, German software firm SAP's market value increased from $39 billion to $156 billion.
No doubt that this experience at SAP paved the way to become one of the fastest-growing major cloud vendors in 2020.
McDermott is now CEO of ServiceNow (NOW), a company that offers specific IT solutions. It allows you to manage projects and workflow, take on essential HR functions, and streamline your customer interaction and customer service. It does all of this, thanks to a comprehensive set of ServiceNow web services, as well as various plug-ins and apps.
Their market value has doubled to $100 billion and this is just the beginning.
ServiceNow almost doesn’t exist after numerous attempts to be acquired, like the time it was almost sold to VMware for $1.5 billion.
Company founder Fred Luddy, who is now chairman, and the board of directors were intrigued by the VMware offer, but venture-capital firm Sequoia Capital argued that $1.5 billion wasn’t a premium at that time let alone market rate for this burgeoning cloud player.
Then-CEO Frank Slootman was eventually replaced by former eBay Inc. (EBAY) CEO John Donahoe in February 2017, who took the company to $3.46 billion in annual 2019 sales.
Donahoe then bolted for Nike Inc. (NKE), and McDermott joined from SAP, locking in the firm for a new era of meteoric growth.
ServiceNow is now on its way to become the defining enterprise-software company of the 21st century and if you look at their position in the market today, they’re the only born-in-the-cloud software company to have surpassed $100 billion market cap without large-scale M&A.
This underdog cloud company whose automation software is deployed to improve productivity is leading to what is known as a “workflow revolution.”
Their set of software tools fused with the sudden emphasis on digital tracking of employees and business systems — has played into ServiceNow’s strengths.
The seismic shift is accelerating: By 2025, most of the millennial generation will work from home permanently, based on internal company reports.
It expects revenue of $4.49 billion in fiscal 2020 and still has a mountain to climb with revenue of just 20% of Salesforce, one-sixth of SAP, and one-ninth of Oracle Corp. (ORCL).
But ServiceNow is catching up as corporations and government agencies pour billions of dollars into their digital infrastructures.
So far, more than $3 trillion has been invested in digital transformation initiatives. Yet only 26% of the investments have delivered meaningful returns on investment.
This is launching the workflow revolution, where ServiceNow is the missing cog that can integrate systems, silos, departments, and processes, all in simple, easy-to-use cross-enterprise workflows.
A demand surge for “workflow automation” technology went parabolic in 2020 and is part of the puzzle helping ServiceNow sustain 25%-plus revenue growth.
ServiceNow most recently raised its full-year guidance after disclosing it has 1,012 customers with more than $1 million in annual contract value, up 25% year-over-year.
That included 41 such transactions in the third quarter, with new customers such as the U.S. Senate and New York City’s Mount Sinai Hospital.
ServiceNow raised guidance for the full year on subscription-revenue range to between $4.257 billion and $4.262 billion, up 31% year-over-year in constant currency.
The company has detailed a goal of $10 billion in annual sales as something feasible in the mid-term and its bevy of strategic relationships will help, like in July, Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) expanded its relationship with ServiceNow; shortly thereafter, Accenture (CAN) and IBM created new business units in partnership with ServiceNow to develop new opportunities.
In March, ServiceNow added a new computing platform, Orlando, that added artificial intelligence and machine learning that lets the MGM Macau casino resort, for example, use a virtual agent to automate and handle repetitive requests.
The integration of virtual agents will supplement casino employees with 24/7 support experiences when human staff is unavailable.
After hitting the $100 billion market cap, McDermott has identified M&A as the catalyst to take NOW higher with the CEO squarely looking at artificial intelligence targets.
ServiceNow has enabled firms to unite front, middle and back office functions, increasing productivity during this time period when speed and simplicity matter the most to digital customers.
I would describe NOW as a baby brother to Salesforce and its entrance into the first and most likely continuous acquisition cycle will most probably result in higher share prices.
ServiceNow turns out to be placed in the perfect position benefitting from Americans moving their careers online with the added effect of the broad-based secular digital migration to remote work.
As long as this firm is generating revenue in the mid-20% annually, it will be a constant buy-the-dip candidate for the foreseeable future regardless of whether there is a pandemic or not.
“In the old world, you devoted 30% of your time to building a great service and 70% of your time shouting about it. In the new world, that inverts.” – Said Founder and CEO of Amazon Jeff Bezos
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
December 14, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(NVIDIA’S SHOW OF FORCE)
(NVDA), (AMD), (APPL), (OTC:SFTBF), (INTC), (QCOM)
One of the best buy and hold tech stock has to be Nvidia (NVDA).
They are positioned at the vanguard of every major cutting-edge technology in the world such as self-driving technology, data center, and artificial intelligence.
Their cash cow business of manufacturing GPUs (graphics processing unit) which are essential to video gaming has been bolstered by the shelter-at-home movement.
Video games as an activity or something to just pass the time has never been so popular and Nvidia is the best of breed in this department.
The key takeaway from Nvidia’s asset portfolio is the diversity.
They aren’t beholden to any one division and I wouldn’t bet anytime soon that video games are going to go out of fashion because of the generational tailwind occurring.
In fact, the underlying Nvidia stock has risen more than 120% in 2020 and semiconductors have proven to be an astute place to put your money in during the pandemic.
The same goes for competitive rivals such as Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Intel (INTC), and Qualcomm (QCOM) who explore some of those same markets.
Nvidia counts Amazon (AMZN) Web Services as a customer for data-center chips. It is partnering with VMware (VMW) and Amazon on an AI-driven cloud platform for big businesses.
Be mindful that semiconductor stocks are volatile because of the boom-bust nature of their business cycle.
Global chip sales cratered in late 2018 and fell 12% in 2019.
They rallied early this year on signs of an industry recovery and on a U.S.-China trade deal, then sold off on coronavirus fears.
The trade war has also thrown a spanner in the works of global chip production.
Production was first halted in China and then put global economies under strain.
Despite the pandemic, the semiconductor industry will return to growth in 2020.
Chip sales will rise by 5.1% to $433 billion this year and accelerate to 8.4% in 2021.
The spread of 5G wireless networks is a key catalyst.
Moving forward, it’s highly likely that U.S. lawmakers maintain an anti-China doctrine, and Nvidia and AMD derive only 1% to 2% of revenue from Huawei.
In fact, other companies are more exposed like Cisco and Intel.
How well is Nvidia doing?
They increased revenue by 57% year over year in the third quarter predominately due to its data center business, which grew revenue by 162% over the same period.
In Q3, the data center division accounted for $1.9 billion of the company's $4.7 billion of revenue.
Nvidia is also growing through acquisitions with its blockbuster pending $40 billion acquisition of chip design licensor ARM Holdings from Softbank (OTC:SFTBF).
ARM’s acquisition will help NVIDIA maintain the best of breed quality through 2021 and beyond.
That is important because the semiconductor industry is becoming more cutthroat with many big players sourcing chips in-house after deeply investing in this technology.
Apple (AAPL) recently unveiled its own stable of Mac processors, the M1, making its debut in late 2020. Manufacturing chips is historically a capital-intensive activity, and new chips don’t roll out that fast. In any case, cash-rich companies the size of Google and Apple have the firepower to pull this off.
ARM holds many unique patents forcing many companies to license from them, Apple can customize those designs, and the actual fabrication is outsourced to Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), the largest and most technologically advanced semiconductor fabricator in the world.
In this specific case, Intel is the direct loser from the production of Apple M1 chips and at this point, this is becoming an existential crisis for Intel.
The acquisition of ARM is a gamechanger, and not just because NVIDIA would gain access to new markets like CPUs for mobile as early as 2021.
Integrating with ARM signals NVIDIA's future shift toward licensing of technology - a far more stable business model than the traditionally cyclical nature of semiconductor industry sales driven by upgrade cycles.
It all comes down to the quality of NVIDIA's chips which remain highly competitive in secular growth areas of tech, such as data centers and artificial intelligence. This alone should keep NVIDIA high up investors' list for years to come.
Demand for the new Nvidia GeForce RTX GPU has been “overwhelming” and the company completed its Mellanox acquisition, a tech firm that sells adapters, switches, software, cables, and silicon for markets including high-performance computing, data centers, cloud computing, computer data storage, and financial services, in April, helping it to double down on their revenue drivers.
Sales for Nvidia's chips remain robust across some of the most desirable end markets and there is nothing meaningful out there to suggest that Nvidia won’t continue its overperformance next year even if the shelter-at-home economy stops.
I am highly bullish on Nvidia stock into 2021 and beyond.
“Virtual reality, all the A.I. work we do, all the robotics work we do - we're as close to realizing science fiction as it gets.” – Said CEO of Nvidia Jensen Huang
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
December 11, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE DIGITAL AD INDUSTRY COMEBACK)
(TTD), (GOOGL)
It’s been a helter-skelter year for tech investors and The Trade Desk (TTD) is one of those examples of a company whose fortunes have gone from rags to riches.
The spring started off with unrelentless economic pressure forcing companies to slash their marketing budgets to preserve capital.
One of the victims were digital advertisers.
The Trade Desk's shares cratered 40% but has since reversed course and is up more than 200% so far this year.
That’s not to say that in today’s digital marketing world, we have utter clarity – we don’t.
But uncertainty around the pandemic and the notion that digital marketers have seen the worst of is starting to get baked into the pie which is why we are seeing this massive share appreciation into the end of the year.
The light is starting to appear at the end of the tunnel and companies that slashed their marketing budgets or advertising budgets are starting to ramp up spending as they plan their budgets for 2021.
Through all of this, I am thoroughly impressed with the robustness of The Trade Desk's business model, evident in its third-quarter 2020 results.
While most companies faced enormous headwinds, The Trade Desk reported record revenue of $216 million, up 32% from last year.
Net income more than doubled to $41 million thanks to the company's revenue growth and operating leverage.
This demonstrates the nimbleness of the business, which continued to profit during a once in a 100-year recession.
Consensus was expecting $181 million, and overdelivering by these wide margins is one of the catalysts shepherding the incremental investor into The Trade Desk.
It was only in the 2nd quarter that year-over-year revenue was actually down 13% and then to go from down 13% to up 32% is quite outstanding.
Last year when the company was mushrooming, revenue was up 38% for the year pointing to more signs that the company is back to where it was pre-COVID.
That in itself is a huge victory in the digital ad world.
Breaking out some of the segments, Connected TV was one of The Trade Desk's biggest growth markets.
Connected TV revenue grew over 100% year-over-year, and that was from a strong quarter last year.
Mobile video spending grew 70%, and audio spending grew 70%.
The Trade Desk obviously has its mojo back.
The Trade Desk will go from strength to strength as the vaccine starts to roll out to parts of the developed world and consumers start to return to spending behavior that looks more pre-COVID.
Another bullish sign is that founder Jeff Green is still CEO of the company and owns more than $5 billion of The Trade Desk stock.
As an owner-operator, Jeff has the incentive, as well as the clout to lead the company toward success.
He has a stellar track record.
TTD’s revenue rose 14-fold between fiscal 2014 and fiscal 2019 and has been profitable since 2013 all while many “growth” companies have been burning cash.
TTD is well-positioned to improve on its growth on the back of two major secular trends: the continued migration toward digital advertising and the transition to programmatic advertising.
Data suggests it owns around 1% of the total global ad market - the total addressable market stands at $725 billion.
Clearly, the runway for a company like this is long if they can execute which they have shown consistently is the case.
Compare this with Google (GOOLG), a firm that has mature businesses that rely on ad revenues, and they have had an interesting year enduring some of the elements like TTD because it's a sudden major recession out of the blue.
Companies have used the opportunity to cut their ad spend and rightly so because that’s what happens in recessions, but the interesting fact about TTD is that the TTD is in the sweet spot for where ad money is going to go.
It's throwing the ball to where the wide receiver will get open in the back of the endzone and that's a game-changing takeaway about this company.
In terms of recent cash spend in the U.S., around $600 million to $700 million of the $1 billion that's been spent on this presidential election for advertising goes to TV. It goes to TV ad spending, and that's fourth-quarter ad spend, not third-quarter. Most of that money has been spent in October, and not only that, that big chunk of ad spend goes into just one week.
There is no doubt in my mind that a significant chunk of that flowed through to TTD.
When you think about programmatic advertising next year that goes on TVs, even smart TVs, we have got the Summer Olympics in Japan along with the European soccer tournament that starts in June 2021.
This means huge revenue bumps as big events bring in many unique opportunities.
These are just some of the whispers going on in the industry and I also believe that 2021 will be a year to remember for the digital ad companies.
Remember that consumers are spending, but not on travel, people aren't flying to Bali or Phuket, but they are consuming content online.
I can truly say that the Trade Desk isn’t just a flash in the pan company and that long term, the prospects are incredibly positive for this company, and obviously, that is starting to reflect in a quickly appreciating stock.
“An MBA is a bad idea. It teaches people all sorts of wrong things. They don't teach people to think in MBA schools.” – Said Founder and CEO of Tesla Elon Musk
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
December 9, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(HOT TECH IPO YEAR CONTINUES)
(AIRBNB), (DOORDASH)
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