Mad Hedge Technology Letter
November 4, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHICH JOBS ARE ON THE LINE NEXT?)
(CVX), (CRM), (ALL), (SCHW), (XOM), (RTN)
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
November 4, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHICH JOBS ARE ON THE LINE NEXT?)
(CVX), (CRM), (ALL), (SCHW), (XOM), (RTN)
For every job created by Amazon during the pandemic, there are 10 jobs losses in the brick and mortar retail sector.
That is happening as we speak.
The next phase of job losses will move up the value chain and hit those precious $100,000 per year jobs precisely because the advancement of technology will allow management to seamlessly substitute these highly paid workers with a digital or automated solution.
The evidence is starting to follow through.
In the last few days, ExxonMobil, Chevron (CVX), Charles Schwab, and Raytheon have announced plans to cut thousands of white-collar jobs.
Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Salesforce (CRM), Allstate (ALL) and CNN owner WarnerMedia have already announced a massive wave of firings too.
Corporate America's belt-tightening provides more evidence of the fragile and unforgiving nature of this pandemic.
Global consultant McKinsey & Company forecasts over 800 million global workers could be replaced by robots by 2030.
The most exposed jobs on the cutting block consist of artificial intelligence (AI), a subset of automation where machines learn to use judgment and logic to complete tasks.
Stanford University doctoral candidate Michael Webb analyzed the data for 16,000 AI-related patents and more than 800 job descriptions and found that highly educated, well-paid workers will become more impacted by the spread of AI.
Bachelor’s degree holders would be exposed to AI over five times more than those with only a high school degree.
That’s because AI is especially superior at completing tasks that require planning, learning, reasoning, problem-solving, and predicting — most of which are skills required for white-collar jobs.
Other closely related jobs are in robotics and software and are likely to impact the physical and routine work of traditional blue-collar jobs.
This will sap the demand from everything from home buying and shopping to credit card defaults if a large swath of the U.S. population earns no income.
The rolling wave of white-collar layoffs is very impactful because this is the group that possesses the most purchasing power in the U.S. economy which is a consumption-driven economy.
Evidence is starting to pop up all over the board.
For instance, Charles Schwab (SCHW) said it would cut about 1,000 jobs following its takeover of TD Ameritrade.
Efficiencies, or the lack of it, have never been more magnified where companies are slashing redundant jobs upon mergers.
In the short term, white-collar workers have fared far better during the pandemic than blue-collar workers, who tend to be younger and have less education.
This is because white-collar workers have been able to operate from a home office where the bulk of blue-collar workers do not have that option.
But in the long term, technology through automation is also going to swallow up these higher-paid workers.
That is not to play down the trend of mass furloughs and layoffs in various industries, but technology and artificial intelligence will be deployed to cut high-paying jobs when it improves.
I believe that in 10 years or less, the technology will improve by leaps and bounds to the point where companies are able to install and scale it globally in an instant.
Those jobs will then go poof!
Nearly 40% of low-income workers lost their jobs in March and it is likely that the U.S. economy will never see that level of peak employment again.
Many people were rehired or found jobs elsewhere as the US economy reopened. After peaking at nearly 15% this spring, the unemployment rate has descended steadily, falling to 7.9% in September.
The mounting signs of white-collar job cuts cannot be ignored.
In another example, Allstate announced in late September that it would lay off 3,800 employees.
The insurance giant blamed the job cuts on the lack of driving during the pandemic and the refunds given to customers.
The pandemic resulted in fewer accidents, thus needing fewer claims people.
ExxonMobil (XOM) announced it will cut 1,900 jobs in the United States, mostly at its headquarters in Houston.
A broader reorganization by Exxon will slash 14,000 jobs by the end of 2022.
Energy companies have been disproportionately impacted because the demand shock has halved oil revenues.
This list goes on and on as Raytheon (RTN) disclosed it will lay off 4,000 contractors, mostly engineers, as well as 1,000 corporate employees.
And that's on top of Raytheon previously announcing plans to lay off 15,000 employees because of the downturn in the aviation industry.
Government, local and federal, has to confront a massive loss of revenues which will affect its ability to hire and maintain government workers.
Layoffs could rise among government workers because the pandemic has set off an epic budget crunch at states and local municipalities.
Eventually, whether it's 5 or 10 years down the line, the next set of solutions will inherently lead to the A word which every employee dreads – Automation.
Going 100% remote means face to face communication has slowed down to a crawl and management is less inclined to reward employees who “put on a good face” and for the sake of their own survival have turned to employees that perform well.
There will be an ultimate race to the bottom with spiraling wages and human workers unable to justify their place when competing with machines.
This inevitably leads into the world of analytics to management part of the staff for better or worse and many companies have gone from all to nothing in an instant.
I know this is a lot of information to process, but the ones getting on board with the new normal will thrive and the ones late to implement the necessary measures will flounder.
2020 has been a strange year, and get ready for new twists and turns in the last two months.
Each ensuing year will most likely get weirder because of the heavy introduction of automation into human lives.
“The development of full artificial intelligence could spell the end of the human race.” – Said British Physicist Stephen Hawking
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
November 2, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(IS CHINA CATCHING UP?)
(HUAWEI)
Heading into a fresh Presidential term, the tech war against China must be addressed or the U.S. faces the prospect of falling behind China by the next U.S. Presidential election.
By that time, the U.S. might not be able to recover.
China’s political leaders have endorsed a five-year growth plan focused on reducing the economy’s reliance on foreign investment and technology.
And this squarely means the U.S.
Following a Communist Party’s Central Committee Meeting, the Chinese have hatched a grand “vision” for the economy as far off as 2035.
“It is the first time ever in the history of our party’s five-year plans…that China is placing the plans on science, technology, and innovation before all other sectors,” Said Wang Zhigang, China’s minister of science and technology.
This specifically means that China is done being “factory of the world” and is gunning for Silicon Valley’s milk and honey.
Chinese tech giants such as Huawei Technologies, the nation’s largest telecommunications equipment manufacturer, and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp., China’s largest semiconductor maker are two central figures that will execute the plans for Chinese Communist’s pivot to technology.
But according to a Financial Times report, Huawei has run out of supply of chips and is looking into manufacturing their own without any experience doing so.
This situation is brutal for the Chinese simply because they don’t have the wherewithal to achieve this great task.
Total self-reliance may remain elusive because China’s communist apparatus is not conducive to producing top-class engineers.
Remember that much of their technology is “borrowed” and they will have to drive forward that same strategy if they want to surpass the U.S. in technological prowess.
I just don’t believe China can organically outgun the U.S. in technology, they simply aren’t built to deliver that result.
Chips aren’t as easy to make as a pair of running shoes or a plastic rubber ducky - these are tough technologies to master.
Part of the blame must be shared with the pitiful Chinese education system that is a pay-to-play type of structure.
The coronavirus has translated into foreign government being extra careful in the technologies they harness and now allowing China to raid these precious secrets.
China is now officially classified as a strategic adversary and it will be a tough slog for China moving forward because the low-hanging fruit has already been harvested.
There also exists the possibility that Democratic Presidential hopeful Joe Biden will be even more staunch against the economic and technological onslaughts of the Chinese Communist Party.
The green shoots have already started to show up as legislation for tech investment takes root.
This summer, a bipartisan group of legislators led by the Democratic senator Chuck Schumer and the Republican Todd Young introduced the Endless Frontier Act. It calls for investing $100 billion over five years to expand the NSF and to fund research in key fields, such as AI, quantum computing, biotech, advanced energy, and materials science.
Biden has proposed spending even more—$300 billion over four years—on federal investments in R&D. His plan calls for major increases in technologies such as AI, 5G, and advanced materials.
The Trump administration has increased investment in five key “industries of the future”—AI, quantum computing, 5G, advanced manufacturing, and biotechnology—albeit not on the scale Biden is calling for.
Made in China 2025 was launched in 2015, and in that year alone, the Chinese government created about $220 billion of state-backed investment funds to support it.
The U.S. would likely dip into their debt instruments to release unlimited capital to deal with developing emerging technologies.
I wholeheartedly believe that China’s encroachment will inspire a technological revolution in the U.S. that is first fueled by government institutions and the peripheries supported by the venture capitalists.
On a microeconomic level, the U.S. has far too large of an edge in semi chip engineers than the Chinese, although China has closed the gap.
The attractiveness of the U.S. from the fiscal side is evident as Chinese tech companies still dream of going public in New York and not Hong Kong or Shenzhen.
Much of the hype around Chinese technology is still hype and that’s all.
Just take for instance the newest Huawei premium smartphone that was billed to be better than the iPhone.
The truth is that it’s a poorly operating smartphone and performs as a mid-level phone.
The Chinese Communist Party has been great at controlling the media narrative around their economical and technological rise, but I am here to call it out to the point where I believe they are still a “paper tiger.”
Many people “in the know” tell me that China’s economy hasn’t been growing for the past 7 years and their “superior” technology is repurposed technology borrowed from western countries that is already outdated in the West.
Just because media suppression is insane in Beijing and any negative journalistic take will be squashed in seconds, it doesn’t mean they have the best technology in the world.
I heard that Chinese tech is “ahead” in 5G, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving but I have seen nothing that would verify this claim.
Peel back the layers and I do believe the Chinese tech scene is closer to a Potemkin’s Village than Moscow’s Red Square.
In the next four years, the U.S. will visibly surge in front of China as the real tech dominator.
This means that investors should be long technology stocks after this short-term consolidation.
“The next 30 years are going to be critical for the world. Make the technology inclusive, make the world change. Pay attention to those people who are 30 years old. Those are the internet generation. They will change the world.” – Said Founder of Alibaba Jack Ma
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
October 30, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE TWO CAN'T-MISS CHIP COMPANIES)
(NVDA), (AMD), (XLNX), (ARM)
I want to talk about two companies that are the “no-brainers” of the semiconductor space that would give you a call option on the data center space.
Let’s take a quick look back at some of their latest moves and what it would mean for your tech portfolio.
A few months ago, Nvidia said it would buy British chip company Arm from SoftBank for $40 billion in a stock and cash deal.
CEO Jensen Huang admitted that while the company's acquisition of the rival British chipmaker was a little on the expensive side, it would make sense in the long-term.
“I had to pay you an arm and a leg for it,” the Nvidia CEO said, and “I told you I was going to be the last and highest bidder.”
Overpaying for high quality companies is something that is only possible from a position of strength.
Huang justified Arm’s price tag saying that the chipmaker’s network of customers made it worthwhile and that he wants to expose those customers to Nvidia’s artificial intelligence technology.
Cross-selling the products and services is where the synergies between the companies can be exploited.
AMD is the other player that is really crushing it along with Nvidia and they recently made a deal to acquire Xilinx.
The deal is a direct response to Nvidia’s attempts to become the leader in high performance computing.
Obviously, the acquisitions are made possible because of years of refining their balance sheets and buying into more growth is a time-honored strategy that tech companies focus on.
AMD will give Nvidia a run for their company with a combined additional 13,000 talented engineers and over $2.7 billion in annual R&D investments.
This is very much a talent grab as well as a revenue grab.
Xilinx offers AMD access to adaptive platforms in critical areas such as 5G and automotive.
The tie-up is a transformational opportunity to tap into a total addressable market of $110 billion, up from previous AMD standalone estimates of $79 billion for 2022.
Xilinx adds about $31 billion to the total addressable market and on the operational side, AMD will see gross margins spike from 45% to 51%.
Even more impressive, operating income margins will surge to 21%, up from 16%.
It’s not like AMD needed much help, as they smashed expectations by growing 55.6% and beating estimates by $240 million in the latest earnings report.
EPS beat analyst estimates by $0.06 providing the highest level of earnings in years at $0.41 per share.
The Computing and Graphics division beats estimates with revenues of $1.67 billion.
The ramp-up of new consoles and data center sales led to a mindboggling 101% sequential revenue increase.
The company’s server processor revenue almost doubled compared with the year earlier, and AMD is on track to begin shipping its next-generation server processors later this year.
The current and future status of gaming is very much tied to the fortunes of Nvidia and AMD and the pandemic has fueled massive migration to time spent playing video games.
Who would have thought if people can’t go outside, more video games would be played?
The new generation of consoles is set to launch in November from Microsoft (MSFT) and Sony (SNE) which has helped boost AMD’s gaming chip business.
Typically, this gaming chip segment drops in the fourth quarter, but this year it will mushroom because of the new console launches and ramp-up in production and sales.
Ultimately, in terms of the Xilinx (XNLX) deal, it is complimentary to AMD’s business – an appetizer to the main dish.
It will help improve the company’s ability to support data center customers and adds exposure to sectors such as automotive, aerospace, defense, and industrials.
Through Xilinx’s field-programmable gate array (FPGA) chips—or semiconductors that can be reprogrammed after production, unlike most semiconductors—AMD could benefit from the tail end of the 5G upgrade cycle, too.
That’s because with many emerging technologies, it’s too expensive to experiment with chips with instructions that are set in stone, and build emerging infrastructure such as 5G.
Xilinx’s businesses also tend to retain customers for longer because its strong designs can lead to longer product cycles.
Together, Xilinx and AMD will also operate at a significantly larger scale, which should improve margins and cash flow.
These deals will create a leading supplier of chips for edge-network base stations.
Unlike in the data center market where general-purpose chips win, edge networks require chips that are good at specific things: low-latency, custom-built, specific units.
Those are all things AMD and Xilinx are good at making. Edge computing is a concept that refers to moving processing power and data storage closer to where it’s needed, thus improving performance on local machines.
In short, Nvidia and AMD are the leading lights of the semi-chip industry involved in all the growth industries from artificial intelligence, data centers, video gaming, and self-driving technologies.
I am highly bullish both.
Quote of the Day
“If you don’t have a mobile strategy, you're in deep turd.” – Said CEO of Nvidia Jensen Huang
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
October 28, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE CLOUD MOVEMENT IS INTACT)
(FFIV), (CRM), (CLOU)
Legal Disclaimer
There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.