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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

September 25, 2020

Tech Letter



Mad Hedge Technology Letter
September 25, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(CASHLESS PAYMENTS ARE HERE TO STAY)
(SQ)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-09-25 08:04:472020-09-25 10:17:28September 25, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Cashless Payments are Here to Stay

Tech Letter

Cashless payments have gained a major foothold into consumer’s lives all brought about by the pandemic, according to a new consumer survey.

This transformational trend is just another reason traders should look at Fintech firm Square (SQ) which has been one of my favorite tech stocks for the past 2 years.

The never-ending pandemic has accelerated the trend toward cashless transactions and the digit economy.

Conversely, the non-cashless society has taken the brunt of the pain in the form of job losses and the jobless rates remain stubbornly high in the Northeast and West trending above 10% in 10 states in the U.S. last month.

It’s clear which area of the economy to invest in and that’s digital payments.

Before the pandemic, in February 2020, 5.4% of Square sellers in the US were cashless, which Square defines as any business accepting more than 95% of their sales by in-person credit or debit card payments, online payments, or contactless payments.

Moving to April, that number soared to 23.2% and by August, when many stay-at-home restrictions were lifted, it was 30%.

To highlight the trend away from a hard currency society, for payments transacted by Square sellers, the share of cash transactions dropped from 37% in February to 33% in April at the height of the lockdown.

Square delivered an analysis indicating it would take over four years to achieve this oversized cashless drop.

That is the underlying story of the pandemic – multiple years of digital transformation and acceleration scrunched into 7 months.

Not only have the secular trends strengthened tech’s fundamentals, but the employees themselves have collaborated to deliver new products such as On-Demand Pay which will allow Square merchant employees to take a cash advance of up to $200 with no fee. The second service is Instant Payments which allows sellers to fund their payroll from their Square Seller account, speeding up the transaction.

Both services take advantage of the increasing number of consumers using Cash App, delivering wider access to cash for both employers and employees. The synergies between Square's consumer and seller ecosystem is a significant competitive advantage for the company that should drive continued adoption of its products and services.

Scaling the individual ecosystem, cross-selling services within each ecosystem, and finally connecting the ecosystem has been an effective three-prong strategy for Square’s management.

These are services that minimize business risk and an example of how it can disrupt the old way of handling something like payroll. As the two ecosystems grow, Square may find other areas where it can create value between them.

The new products will improve adoption for Payroll among merchants while boosting Cash App adoption and the direct-deposit feature in particular.

Both services will boost increased balances in seller and Cash App accounts. That should increase the appeal of other Square services like the Square Card or Cash Card. It could also lead to more Cash App users investing or sending cash to friends.

It would make sense that greater balances in seller accounts would produce similar results on the seller side. And as Square merchants use more than one service from the company, Square can start offering even better deals to sellers.

In the future, other products that could be rolled out include avenues like loyalty programs, lending products, or other ways to facilitate commerce. Square is just getting started, but the fintech company's new Payroll products show the potential to create significant change in the small business financial services industry and seize market share.

Contrast the bustling activity happening in the fintech space with brick and mortar stores and the difference couldn’t be starker.

The follow-through has been vivid with Square’s shares lurching higher by 150%.

Not only do Square’s engineers work together to create more revenue-building products at scale, but Square is feasting from a once in a generation pivot to mobile digital payments.

Square’s formula has been a recipe for success proving that the road to Damascus is shorter than it seems.

I am highly bullish Square.

 

cashless payments

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

September 25, 2020 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“You don't have to start from scratch to do something interesting.” – Said CEO of Twitter and Square Jack Dorsey

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/dorsey.png 264 262 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-09-25 08:00:082020-09-25 10:01:10September 25, 2020 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

September 23, 2020

Tech Letter



Mad Hedge Technology Letter
September 23, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE HOT CLOUD IPO OF FALL 2020)
(SNOW), (ZM), (ORCL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-09-23 10:04:002020-09-23 10:22:25September 23, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Hot Cloud IPOP of Fall 2020

Tech Letter

The good news is that investors are thirsting for new cloud IPOs boding well for tech firms like Airbnb who plans to go public later this year.

The long-term health of the U.S. tech sector is on solid footing.

Most recently we had Snowflake (SNOW) who is a cloud provider and has an impressive enterprise business.

The public cloud is the data storage unit which literally everyone stores their operations on that has benefited from a massive wave of digital migration.

Many of the cloud-targeted tech firms of recent years have been 10-baggers and have dominated the overall market's returns.

Typically, these companies trade at high premiums, and rightly so, because of the corresponding growth trajectories and Snowflake is no different.

The stock has doubled after less than half a month as a tradable market-moving instrument.

Even by the standards of the most expensive software companies on the Nasdaq index, Snowflake is not cheap, although it’s a growth monster.  

Snowflake was valued at $12.4 billion in February and even has investor Warren Buffett, the Oracle of Omaha, among its investors.

Buffett dove headfirst into tech investments in Apple and even some Indian fintech firms as well.

Snowflake is the largest software IPO on record and the largest since Uber's $8.1 billion IPO in May 2019.

The firm was striving for a valuation of $20 billion. In total, Snowflake has raised $1.4 billion from investors including Sequoia and Iconiq Capital.

Snowflake even makes the high-flying Zoom (ZM) Video Communications look cheap which is hard to do.

Zoom is growing three times faster than Snowflake, but trades at roughly half of Snowflake's price-to-sales ratio.

Zoom is also profitable, whereas Snowflake is a huge loss maker and that is a staple of many tech startups. This is an economic environment that is more conducive to profit drive companies instead of the tech model of promising future growth.

Snowflake is over four times more expensive than cloud company Datadog.

Snowflake's market is thought to be bigger than most other niche software applications, and therefore it may have a longer runway. In the regulatory filing, Snowflake claimed its total addressable market was around $81 billion.

Along with many other growth companies, Snowflake's ultimate margin potential is still hard to fathom and more passengers are starting to arrive in the sector than drivers.

Even worse, Snowflake not only competes with legacy data warehouse companies such as Oracle (ORCL) and Dell but also with products from the cloud infrastructure company it collaborates with.

Since shares have already doubled, I do believe that investors will need to wait for a pullback to put money to work in Snowflake.

The company said it had about 3,100 customers, including 56 clients that contributed about $1 million in a 12-month period.

Even with the pricey valuations, Snowflake is the pre-eminent cloud listing of the second half of 2020 and its enterprise business is sustainable.

If a broader sell-off drags this name down into the $180s, pull the trigger and start wading into this one.

The stock is currently priced as such that it represents flawless execution quarter after quarter for many years, and they would have to live up to lofty expectations to grow into its valuation.

While the management is stellar and is known for its execution, the odds of Snowflake's stock faltering are high because of the high bar.

Keep this one on your hot list because with all the variables waiting to pull down the market, there will be a time when the price is right in Snowflake.

snowflake

 

snowflake

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-09-23 10:02:592020-09-23 19:02:59The Hot Cloud IPOP of Fall 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

September 23, 2020 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“If someone asks me what cloud computing is, I try not to get bogged down with definitions. I tell them that, simply put, cloud computing is a better way to run your business.” – Said Founder and CEO of Salesforce Marc Benioff

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/benioff.png 250 262 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-09-23 10:00:562020-09-23 10:21:47September 23, 2020 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

September 21, 2020

Tech Letter



Mad Hedge Technology Letter
September 21, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(WHAT’S NEXT FOR THE TECH MARKET)
($COMPQ)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-09-21 11:04:392020-09-21 11:36:02September 21, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

What's Next for the Tech Market

Tech Letter

The tech market appears to be stalling out confronting uncertainty on a host of fronts, but investors betting on one theme—the unfolding economic recovery—appear positive.

What is certainly uncertain is that elections, brazen geopolitics, healthcare bills, inflation, forbearance, natural disasters are piling up like a dirty laundry basket of heightened risk.

Cyclical outperformance has been the catchphrase since the start of September, and the establishment on Wall Street has been barking for a rotation in market leadership from mega-cap tech.

As much as I love the business models of Apple, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Netflix, they have come too far — too fast.

We are currently smack dab in an economic phase where growth stocks won’t perform like they did when the broader economy was humming along just before March and the shelter-at-home trade has faded away from its initial boost.

There are knock-on effects and big tech doesn’t just live in a silo which is why investors are searching for reasons to take tech higher.

That being said, big tech did harvest the lions’ share of the gains from March until the end of August and in relative terms, they have emerged the ultimate winners during this health crisis.

Many upper-middle-class families are beginning to feel the economic pinch as well, as the damage is starting to be felt further up the economic food chain.

But these families will still need their tech software and services when they do a cost-benefit analysis and items such as car loans, entertainment, and food delivery will be more likely on the cutting block.

The overextended S&P 500 technology sector has lost 8% in September, while value-oriented materials and industrials have added 6% and 2%, respectively. The overall S&P 500 has declined 4%.

The valuation of the market is arguing for a rotation, not a continued leg up.

In the short term, tech stocks could lose out to U.S. small-caps and specifically small companies with high returns on equity, or ROE.

Low-ROE and nonearning stocks have dominated the Russell 2000’s rebound since late March, as investors focused on revenue growth above all else. That has benefited a lot of software, biotech, and other stocks, but forced investors to pay a high premium.

When the economy is in free fall, many companies have negative sales growth, and the market will favor those who aren’t overvalued.

By my estimation, tech is overvalued in the short-term but still a great long term bet.

Now that the fiscal morphine shot is wearing off, tech appears to be resting while it consolidates while waiting for an “event” to give it more juice.

Some fiscal tools just don’t work now like share buybacks. Management would be tone-deaf to the economic carnage going on in the U.S. — not to mention that tech stocks just visited all-time highs.

The Federal Reserve now sees 4% gross domestic product growth in the U.S. next year, followed by 3% in 2022.

This small-cap rotation will come and go, and once tech gets a little cheaper, the dip will be bought.

As the retracement goes from 20 days to one month, some positive news comes in the form of Walmart and Oracle acquiring parts of TikTok even in a highly diluted form.  

Fortunately, the tech portfolio has been in 100% cash as I sensed the consolidation in time.

We will search for better entry points and will need to be patient.

tech investors

 

tech investors

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-09-21 11:02:262020-09-21 22:09:56What's Next for the Tech Market
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

September 21, 2020 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“Strip malls are history.” – Said CEO and Founder of Amazon Jeff Bezos

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/jeff-bezos2.png 262 332 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-09-21 11:00:232020-09-21 11:35:19September 21, 2020 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

September 18, 2020

Tech Letter



Mad Hedge Technology Letter
September 18, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(HOW WILL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AFFECT YOUR LIFE)
(AI)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-09-18 11:04:172020-09-18 12:13:02September 18, 2020
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