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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 13, 2020

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
April 13, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE BEST SHORT PLAYS IN TECH)
(EHTH), (IQ)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-04-13 09:34:482020-04-13 09:40:59April 13, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Best Short Plays in Tech

Tech Letter

Fed’s Neel Kashkari described the path of the U.S. economy as a “long, hard road” boding ill for the tech sector. During economically unpredictable times, avoiding tech stocks that could be sinkholes is crucial to protecting a portfolio, which is why it's useful to consider the best short plays in tech.

One person I drop everything to listen to is Muddy Waters Research Founder and CEO Carson Block.

Block is best described as a short-seller, and his calls on allegedly fraudulent accounting practices in publicly traded Chinese companies are typically spot on.

Block has found another potential gem and he is willing to bet on it by acquiring a short position in eHealth, Inc. (EHTH) which owns a digital health insurance exchange.

His gripes revolve around shoddy management who hoped to “pump the stock,” and shares reacted by dropping more than 17% at last Wednesday’s open after Block’s premarket disclosure.

The second part of Block’s argument centered around artificial growth caused by higher TV marketing spend resulting in high churn rates.

His evidence derives from management manipulating its presentation of churn to be misleadingly low and booking multi-year 'tail' revenue at the end of each cohort's estimated life, which is extremely aggressive in light of the significantly elevated churn.

Block didn’t stop there, turning his attention to another Chinese tech company that is billed as the Netflix of China called iQIYI, Inc. (IQ).

Activist firm Wolfpack Research alleges that iQiyi “was committing fraud well before its IPO in 2018” on the Nasdaq, and it’s “continued to do so ever since.”

The Netflix of China has been fudging its numbers for quite a while and is the most egregious example of accounting fraud.

How do they do it?

The inflation of its barter transaction revenue. Barter sublicensing revenues are determined by IQ’s internal estimates of the value of the content it traded.

In other words, IQ’s management can effectively assign any value they want to these transactions, providing an easy opportunity to inflate revenues.

Based on the highest-end estimated value per non-exclusive episode provided by a former IQ employee involved in content acquisition, IQ would have needed to barter the licenses for ~3.9x and ~3.2x the total number of TV series episodes produced by all Chinese production companies to legitimately reach its reported barter revenues in 2018 and 2019, respectively.

IQ is a mature company and will turn 10 years old this month - yet has burned money for 10 consecutive years.

Even worse, losses are rapidly accelerating, unlike its growth and the company is doing more to mask their rotten core.

IQ lost around $1.5B in 2019, $170 million more than 2018.

Meanwhile, paying subscriber growth in 4Q19 hit a nadir at only 0.7%. IQ’s advertising revenue was also crashed -15% in 2019 and it still has a negative gross margin.

The Chinese consumer mindset is to never pay for digital content because they can just find it on the web for free, meaning digital streamers like IQ must go to extreme lengths to create “growth.”

The reverberation from the coronavirus is that tech investors are more risk adverse than ever and any whiff of illegality will scare them off.

Even though the Fed has basically swallowed every asset class we have with its latest move, that will not save the marginal tech companies with dishonest business models.

iQIYI, Inc. (IQ) and eHealth, Inc. (EHTH) are high-risk tech companies that readers should avoid like the plague.

best short plays in tech

 

best short plays in tech

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-04-13 09:32:472020-05-19 11:33:28The Best Short Plays in Tech
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 13, 2020 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“I’m skeptical of any mission that has advertisers at its centerpiece.” – Said Jeff Bezos

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/jeff-bezos2.png 268 227 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-04-13 09:30:432020-04-13 09:40:20April 13, 2020 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 8, 2020

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
April 8, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(AVOID YELP ON PAIN OF DEATH)
(YELP), (GRUB)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-04-08 09:04:122020-04-08 08:25:32April 8, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Avoid Yelp on Pain of Death

Tech Letter
yelp

Tech investors should be migrating towards stocks that have high visibility of an earnings turnaround once a health solution is discovered for the current health scare. One that definitely does not fit the bill is Yelp (YELP) who has experienced negative earnings growth for the past three years.

What’s the deal with Yelp?

The company recently withdrew its first quarter and 2020 financial guidance because the coronavirus has destroyed large parts of its business probably to never return.

If you didn’t know, Yelp provides information through online communities on restaurants, shopping, nightlife, financial, health, and other services, so it’s easy to do the calculus as to why lockdowns and restrictions on public life are affecting these revenue streams.

A recent survey reported a higher average likelihood of households missing a debt payment over the next three months, meaning the consumer is in dire straits unless there is a swift 180 in circumstances.

In the longer-term, the New York Fed affirms a “persistent deterioration” in consumers’ expectations to access credit throughout the rest of 2020.

The New York Fed said the sharp decline in consumer expectations cuts across all age, education, and income groups.

Less money for consumer spending means less consumer demand on Yelp translating into lower ad revenue – it’s that simple.

On a conference call on February 13, Yelp mentioned that it expects 2020 revenues to grow between 10% and 12% year over year and adjusted EBITDA by 1 to 2 percentage points. It had also expected margins to expand again in 2020.

What a difference 4 weeks makes!

Now almost every company is in survival mode and Yelp is the weakest link.

Consumer interest in restaurants and nightlife has taken a nosedive in the new coronavirus economy.

Yelp data shows that consumer interest had declined 54% for restaurants and 69% for nightlife venues.

Cafes, French restaurants, and wineries decreased their share of daily consumer actions (down 66%, 47% and 44%, respectively) week over week.

In contrast, the weekly growth numbers favor just a select few - grocery stores interest is up 102%, fruit and vegetable shops are up 102%, fast-food joints are up 64%, and pizzerias round out the bunch up 44%.

Some hard-hit companies come in the form of bowling, yoga and martial arts services which tend to involve groups of people, declined by a respective 43%, 38%, and 33%, and these are all companies that would be spending ad money.

Even worse news on the financial side - mom and pop stores have a short leash with median cash buffer for a small business at just 27 days.

As you would assume, searches on home fitness equipment surged 344%, and interest in parks rose 53%.

Interest was also up 360% for buying guns and 166% up for buying water - breweries were down 61%.

Lawmakers and states, including New York, New Jersey, California, and Pennsylvania, have ordered a temporary closure of restaurants and bars and I can safely say that consumers probably won’t return the next day to barge down the entrance door.

The last earnings report wasn’t all that hot for Yelp who missed on revenue while spending 10% more on advertising to get to that miss.

Earnings per share also missed estimates by sliding 35% year over year validating my thesis that this is a sinking ship headed towards an iceberg.

These propped up numbers were before the coronavirus hit the company and the business model is poorly prepared for this type of phenomenon and the lasting effects.

I expect a material decrease in the growth of the number of paying advertising locations and lower advertising budgets from multi-location customers.

Paying advertising locations should drop by half just this quarter.

Materially lower traffic dropping over 50% is a trend that will perpetuate and even if there is a dead cat bounce because shares are so beaten down, this is an unequivocal “sell on the rally” type of stock.

yelp

 

yelp

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/financial-forecast.png 579 1022 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-04-08 09:02:102020-05-16 21:04:32Avoid Yelp on Pain of Death
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 8, 2020 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“Culture eats strategy for breakfast.” – Said Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/nadela-satya.png 314 258 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-04-08 09:00:072020-04-08 08:25:45April 8, 2020 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 6, 2020

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
April 6, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(AVOID THE GIG ECONOMY LIKE THE PLAGUE)
(UBER), (LYFT), (UPWK)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-04-06 10:04:352020-04-06 10:43:02April 6, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Avoid the Gig Economy Like the Plague

Tech Letter

I assume many believe that stock-picking is the path to riches, and the post-coronavirus environment will eventually appear to offer investors new opportunities.

It’s also important for investors to avoid the rotten parts of the tech market.

The gig economy could enter the post-health crisis tech economy as huge losers, as already weak business models must absorb even more pressure.

Let me remind you that this pocket of the economy is not the gold standard of Silicon Valley and exists primarily because of the never-ending capital that propped up many poor business models.

Well, that funding is gone in this new world.

The health scare has already crushed the 2020 IPO market and the newly public companies are next in the crosshairs whom many are nothing more than labor arbitrage companies masquerading as real tech companies.

Examples such as Uber (UBER) and Lyft (LYFT) are predatory in behavior, feasting off contractors who do not have a unified voice.

An investor wouldn’t be wrong to say these are nothing more than glorified taxi companies utilizing a functioning app.

The gig economy effectively matches the digital workforce with a suitable “tech” company, but they do not deliver anything else of value.

These types of “broker” services can be eliminated quickly if tech companies choose to hire gig workers directly.

Even tech companies that only hire gig workers do it themselves - ask Uber drivers how easy it is to start working for them.

I reference Uber because they were responsible for 58% of gig worker payouts reaching $204 billion in 2018.

Payout volume is expected to double by 2023, but that was until the worst economic recession since the Great Depression of 1929 hit U.S. shores.

Let’s quickly analyze a weak gig economy company that wasn’t doing great before the health scare called Upwork.

Upwork (UPWK), formerly Elance-oDesk, is a global freelancing platform where businesses and independent professionals connect and collaborate remotely.

Upwork’s life as a public company has only seen the share price decline -hitting a high of $24 per share in February 2019 and currently sitting at $5 today.

Why have shares declined precipitously since going public?

Wasn’t the gig economy working miracles and was a slice of life I needed to become a part of?

Even as the freelance employee hiring platform grew revenue 19% in 2019, shares have tumbled nearly 75% from their all-time high.

Granted, the market needed to reexamine the business based on current expectations, and yes, the coronavirus market sell-off hasn't helped matters.

Economic activity is about to nosedive, many businesses have already begun to cut spending and reduce staff.

The swiftest way of reducing expenditures is by eliminating business contractors or non-employee workers that get hired on a freelance basis from Upwork.

Upwork receives a commission by liaising workers with tech companies and that business is sure to be severely damaged.

Since Upwork went public, the company increased sales and marketing spend by more than 31% in 2019 to promote growth because the company is simply not relevant.

Making the story even worse, the general and administrative costs also grew 36% year over year.

Upwork's revenue is not rising at the same type of rate that justifies higher administrative and marketing spend.

This business model simply never worked and now that a monstrous recession has hit, imagine how terrible future prospects look now.

The only silver lining is that industry will migrate to digital spaces quicker but that in no way guarantees that Upwork will harvest the benefits from this massive migration.

Work-from-home just got a massive shot in the arm, and many organizations are suddenly scrambling to invest in the ability to allow employees to work remotely and could a possible use case enrich Upwork?

But why can’t these same companies hire directly?

Nobody really knows Upwork anyway and since the shortage of jobs will become acute, directly communicating about possible jobs could harvest more than enough qualified candidates without the help of unknown Upwork.

Another imminent problem is the balance sheet.

Upwork had $133.9 million in cash, equivalents, and short-term investments on its balance sheet at the end of 2019, but if that is frittered away, is this company attractive enough to receive another round of funding?

I would say probably not and if yes, only on disadvantageous debt terms.

This firm is merely treading water before it gets shot out of its misery.

Upwork overspends and under delivers; a toxic combination and that was its performance in a period of favorable economic times.

What about other gig economy firms?

There is not one I like, again, they overspend and underdeliver with illogical revenue acquisition costs, but the silver lining for Uber and Lyft is that everyone knows who they are so they will be able to survive on poor unit economics for a while until they cannot.

Time is money and the risk of not getting torpedoed in one second is valuable in the current climate as revenues have gone to 0% for hotels and bars.

These glorified taxi companies have one ace up their sleeve and that is pushing the self-driving service revolution because that is their get-out-of-jail free card.

Upwork doesn’t have that luxury as they will look to survive now before their stock becomes a zero with a brand name that doesn’t resonate with investors.

Avoid the stock of all companies that are tied to the gig economy.

gig economy

 

gig economy

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-04-06 10:02:592020-06-01 18:25:51Avoid the Gig Economy Like the Plague
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 6, 2020 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“Our goal was never to create a better taxi.” – Said CEO of Lyft Logan Green

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/logan-green.png 252 345 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-04-06 10:00:462020-04-06 10:42:33April 6, 2020 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 3, 2020

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
April 3, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE MUST-HAVE APPS FOR NEW HOME WORKERS)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-04-03 08:05:492020-04-03 08:19:50April 3, 2020
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