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MHFTR

September 27, 2018 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

 “Someone once described entrepreneurship to me as a series of happy accidents,” said founder and former CEO of Instagram Kevin Systrom.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Kevin-Systrom-quote-of-the-day-e1537987806369.jpg 386 200 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-09-27 01:05:332018-09-26 19:03:28September 27, 2018 - Quote of the Day
MHFTR

September 26, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
September 26, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(DID SIRIUS OPEN UP PANDORA'S BOX?),
(SPOT), (P), (SIRI), (AAPL), (AMZN)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-09-26 01:07:082018-09-25 19:16:30September 26, 2018
MHFTR

Did Sirius Open up Pandora’s Box?

Tech Letter

In a flurry of deals, the music streaming industries consolidation is powering on as some of the industry’s biggest players have completed new acquisitions.

Is there a new King of the Castle?

Not yet.

In any case, the shakeout still allows Spotify to claim itself as the No. 1 company in the music streaming industry, but Apple (AAPL) and Sirius XM (SIRI) have gained.

There is still work to be done for the trailing duo but it is a step in the right direction.

Apple’s deal with Shazam, which just gained approval, was consummated last December, but was held up by European regulators over antitrust problems.

The Europeans have clamped down on American tech companies of late forcing them to play nicer after decades of running riot inside the region.

The Shazam app analyzes then pinpoints titles from music, movies, and television shows based on a brief sample through the device’s microphone.

If your neighbors are blasting the tunes upstairs at a Friday night shindig and you want to find out what song is causing you to lose sleep at night, just turn on your microphone and upload it into Shazam.

Shazam will tell you exactly the song’s title and the artist’s name.

Even dating back to 2013, this app was among the top 10 most popular apps in the world.

In 2018, Shazam has carved out a user base of more than 150 million monthly average users (MAU) and growing.

Shazam is used more than 20 million times per day.

An opportunity lies in urging Shazam users to then adopt Apple music.

Interestingly enough, to upgrade the quality of the app’s functionality, Apple is stripping away digital ads in Shazam.

Apple has made an unrelenting attempt to avoid introducing lower grade tech that could potentially taint its clean-cut brand.

Recently enough, film producers have complained that Apple is completely averse to any content with gratuitous violence, excessive drug use, and candid sex scenes.

Apple wants to cultivate and sell its pristine image.

Digital ads also fail to make the cut.

This spotless image boosts Apple’s pricing power along with the high quality of products that has seen Apple retain its place as the producer of the best smartphone in the world.

Other smart phone brands are still in catchup mode with a brand image significantly inferior to Apple’s.

And Apple CEO Tim Cook isn’t even interested in monetizing Apple music, and is more focused on “doing the right thing” for it.

Yes, the job of every company is to be in the black, but the No. 1 responsibility for a modern tech company is to grow and grow profusely.

Tech investors pay for growth, period.

As investors have seen with Netflix, companies can always raise prices after seizing market share because of the stranglehold on eyeballs inside a walled garden.

That potent formula has been the bread and butter of powerful tech companies of late.

Spotify is a captive of the music industry, of which it is entirely dependent for its source of goods, in this case songs.

At the same time, the music industry has fought tooth and nail to destroy the likes of Spotify, which benefits immensely from distributing the content it creates.

History is littered with failed music streaming services outgunned in the courtroom. Pandora (P) is the biggest public name out there whose share price has tanked over the long haul.

Pandora has created a proprietary algorithm offering song recommendations to listeners, but it is more or less an online music streaming app heavily reliant on a freemium pricing model with ads.

Sirius XM Holdings, a satellite radio company, signaled its intent in the music streaming business by taking a 19% in Pandora’s business last year.

It has followed that up now by completing a full takeover of the Oakland, California company for $3.5 billion.

This move adds 75 million users to its 36 million usership on Sirius and, in my view, the main objective is an eyeball grab to buy more listeners dragging them into its walled garden.

To triple a user base instantly to 75 million listeners is a boon for Sirius, which now has the firepower to legitimately compete with Spotify.

Pandora has been shopping itself around for the past two years, and companies such as Facebook were whispered to be eyeing this company.

Facebook chose to focus on developing dating and romance functions on its platform, and has mainly ignored the music streaming possibilities.

More critically, it allows Sirius to diversify out of the car space where satellite radio is predominantly used.

As much as Americans love to drive, the home is where they rest, and sleep, and Pandora will unlock a path into the home of listeners.

Synergies between home audio through Pandora, and car audio through Sirius should be evident over time.

The music streaming industry, such as the television streaming industry, has become fiercely competitive as of late. And this is a prudent move for Sirius to buy a new customer base at the same time as moving into the home.

The trend of tech companies penetrating the home and making it as smart as possible is revived constantly.

This piece of news isn’t as earth-shattering as Amazon’s (AMZN) smart home product launch event, but nonetheless indicates another leg up in competition for fresh user growth and its data.

This M&A surge is occurring amid a backdrop of the music industry’s obsession to exterminate Spotify and the other music streaming companies.

They are on a mission to force up the royalties these Internet giants must pay to pad their pockets and protect their interests.

Royalties are the music streaming companies’ main cost, and for Spotify, these royalty payments eat up 78% of total revenue.

But that does not mean Spotify is a bad company or even a bad stock.

Every company has its share of pitfalls. Throw in the mix that Amazon (AMZN) and Apple have music streaming services that do not even need to make a profit, and you will understand why some might be wary about putting new money to work in music streaming business stocks.

The primary reason that Spotify shares will outperform for the foreseeable future is because it is the preeminent music streaming platform.

Also, there is favorable latitude to make way toward the goal of monetization, and ample space to improve gross margins.

Global streaming revenue growth has gone ballistic as the migration to mobile devices and cord cutting has exacerbated the monetization prospects of the music industry.

Streaming revenue was a shade under $2 billion in 2013, and continued to post a growth trajectory of more than 40% each year since.

As it stands now, total global streaming revenue registered just a tick under $7 billion per year in 2017, and that was an improvement of 41.1% from 2016.

The choice among choices is Spotify in 2018.

The company was dogged by many years of famous artists removing their proprietary content from the platform citing unfavorable terms.

Eventually, almost all artists have relented and reinstalled their music on Spotify. They depend on alternative moneymaking avenues to compensate for lack of royalties, mainly live music.

Spotify has seized even more industry power with its new function of completely bypassing the music industry altogether, by offering a way for aspiring artists to directly upload music content onto its online platform.

Crushing the middleman has been a widespread theme in the tech industry for the past few decades, and the music industry is no different.

As technology has hyper-accelerated, the cost of producing music has plummeted giving access to just about anyone who has any talent.

No need to rent a sound studio for thousands of dollars per hour anymore in West Hollywood, and the music industry knows it.

It could be possible that the next cohort of viral artists will never cough over a dime to the music industry, and the bulk of the profits will be collected by a music streaming titan that distributes their content online.

How does Spotify make money?

It earns its crust of bread through paid subscriptions but lures in eyeballs using an ad-supported free version of its platform.

Naturally, the paid version is ad-less, and this subscription is around $5 to $15 per month.

In the second quarter, Spotify’s paid subscription volume surpassed 83 million, a sharp uptick of 40% YOY.

Ad-supported users came in at more than 101 million, even under the damage that General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) did to western tech companies.

The ad-supported subscribers rose 23% YOY, and the paid version expects between 85 million to 88 million paid subscribers in the third quarter.

Many of the new paid subscribers are converts from its free model.

Spotify is poised to increase revenue between 20% to 30% for the rest of 2018.

The rise of Spotify's developing data division could extract an additional $580 million of revenue in 2023, making up 2% of total revenue.

When Spotify did go public, the robust price action was with conviction, making major investors - such as China’s Tencent, which possess a 9.1% stake and Tiger Global Management, which owns 7.2% - happy stakeholders.

In the last quarter’s earnings report, Spotify CFO Barry McCarthy reiterated the company’s goal to push gross margins from the mid-20% range to “gross margins in the 30% to 35% range.”

A jump in gross margins would go a long way in making Spotify appear more profitable, and that is the imminent goal right now.

Bask in the glow of the growth sweet spot Spotify finds itself in right now.

For the time being, the music division of Amazon and Apple are just a side note, even with Apple’s purchase of Shazam.

But Apple is vigorously improving its service products as its software and services segment moves from strength to strength, but that doesn’t particularly mean Apple Music.

Investors must sit on their hands to see how Sirius’s acquisition of Pandora plays out. These are by no means two extraordinary companies, and a major overhaul is required to make these two mediocre companies into one overperformer.

If you had to choose among Sirius, Pandora, or Spotify, then cautiously leg into a few shares of Spotify to test the waters.

 

 

 

 

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MHFTR

September 26, 2018 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“You're right, we're not in it for the money,” said Apple CEO Tim Cook when asked about Apple Music in 2018.

 

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MHFTR

September 25, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
September 25, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(AMAZON’S HOME INVASION),
(AMZN), (GOOGL), (HBB), (PG)

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MHFTR

Amazon’s Home Invasion

Tech Letter

In another resplendent display of corporate expertise, Amazon (AMZN) debuted its stunning new lineup of smart home products aiming to dominate your inside walls.

In total, Amazon gave consumers 15 new devices to dabble with – an unprecedented amount.

Amazon Echo, Amazon’s smart speaker, also received a software update.

Jeff Bezos’ company is traversing where they have never been before, infiltrating the car with the Echo Auto, executing location-based routines such as directing drivers running on a brand-new operating system.

Other products in the shop window were smart devices related to security, a clock, an upgraded Echo Dot, and a microwave.

The biggest nugget delivered in this release event was the advent of the Amazon Echo-on-a-chip – Amazon Connect Kit.

Essentially, it would allow any third-party manufacturer that vies for smart home supremacy to embed an Amazon produced chip into its product and design the architecture around it.

This foray has already turned heads with appliance companies already raving about this new development.

Consumer product companies such as Hamilton Beach (HBB) and Procter & Gamble (PG) are in the midst of engineering its own products centered around the Amazon connect kit.

North America sales and marketing senior vice president at Hamilton Beach Scott Tidey said his company has been “surprised at how easy it is to use the Alexa Connect Kit to prototype devices and create Alexa commands with just a few lines of code.”

In the near future, consumers could be maneuvering around their homes with products possessing a legion of these new Amazon proprietary chips.

Amazon is bent on penetrating your home and turning it into the smart home you always dreamed of, and this is one of the in-roads that will take them to the holy grail.

This hard-charging approach has been effective.

Wait to see which products go viral, then go after market share like crazy.

This approach made the Amazon Kindle a favorite of many tablet goers.

It helps that Amazon products are crafted with intense precision and great attention to detail.

As more consumers devour new Amazon devices, the synergistic effects benefit its comprehensive eco-system.

Once a customer becomes entirely drenched in Amazon products, it becomes the backbone to a customer’s existence.

Ask the millennial generation, and a good portion of them entirely depend on Amazon to fuel their daily routine.

Any replacement services would waste them hours and be a whole lot pricier.

As the voice assistants become widely adopted, it could blow a hole in Google (GOOGL) search.

Google search is still reliant on its desktop search, even though more and more people are migrating to its mobile search platform.

But if Amazon can stay ahead of Google in the voice assistant race, it could supplant Google as the premier search engine.

It might be an existential crisis for Google search and the minions of Google ad tech engineers.

Google is still wholeheartedly reliant on advertisement revenue, which is its profit engine.

Although, the cash cow digital advertisement business has made the company famously rich, regulation is a ticking time bomb, as the government has a bull’s-eye marked at this Silicon Valley mainstay.

Amazon has smartly moved up the value chain of search, and believes voice-activated search will be the revolutionary search function in the next few years.

It’s hard to argue with its prognosis.

Providing enough high-caliber accoutrements that mesh with its voice supported portfolio will expedite adoption and put strenuous pressure on Google to evolve faster.

Even worse, the golden years for digital advertisement have passed and the pressure on margins could exacerbate.

Fighting Amazon would provoke the margin bears and in one fell swoop, Alphabet, which is waiting on Waymo to take off, could get hip-checked by the Seattle-based company.

As the FANGs start to bleed over into each other’s business, these new product events take on a more important meaning.

The Amazon-effect has the tendency to destroy smaller company’s stocks, but going forward, large companies will be just as badly affected as Amazon branches off into new spheres spearheading revolutionary initiatives.

This speaks volumes to the innovation of Amazon, and why the best innovators will always stay one step ahead.

Amazon is rated the No. 1 company by the Mad Hedge Technology Letter and after this stellar debut of various IoT products, it’s hard not to like them even more.

And if Amazon’s connect kit catches fire and Google is forced to concede this hardware to Amazon, it would be a kick in the midsection to Google whose IoT strategy is not sticking as strongly as it would like.

Amazon does not want to co-exist with other companies. However, it smartly concedes certain segments until it is confident in taking that segment over.

This is why Amazon’s in-house brands are starting to wreak havoc on the third-party sellers on its e-commerce platform.

Amazon ingenuously chose to make a microwave because the technology hadn’t changed much in a generation, yet it was in dire need of simplification.

Seize the low-hanging fruit before you tackle the more difficult challenges.

Once Amazon masters the simpler devices in the home, watch out!

The rest of the home will be up for grabs too because of the same reason many companies heed way to Amazon – it does it way better than any other company for a fraction of the cost.

The multiplier effect will be in full force when Amazon finally constructs its shiny new headquarter somewhere outside of Seattle giving Amazon more manpower to fulfill Bezos’ vision.

My bet is that it will be placed smack dab in the middle of Washington D.C. – a stone’s throw away from the White House where Bezos has been increasingly active adding to his army of lobbyists.

With regulation on the verge of breaking social media’s back, Bezos is acutely aware of protecting his assets as if his life depended on it.

Bezos also has a house in Washington and owns the Washington Post.

Amazon doesn’t rest on its laurels because it doesn’t dominate 80% of the Android market, and it must be the aggressor and the disruptor at the same time.

Rolling out 15 smart products blew away the drooling audience and left them befuddled and craving for more.

Amazon must do it another way than Google and its way; the Amazon way, is the winning strategy.

It’s hard to imagine that Google is still reliant on a legacy business to print them money. And as the digital ad industry sinks, Google will sink, too.

Google still hasn’t found the next answer that can marshal it to safe waters.

Its eggs are still in one basket – unlike Amazon.

As Amazon steamrolls the little companies that never had a chance, the threat of them taking out a Google- or a Facebook-size company grows exponentially.

Ironically, Amazon’s digital ad business is set to surpass $4 billion by the end of the year, and it’s not even the main aim for Bezos.

The digital ad business is a side business for Bezos.

His visions are grander and awe-inspiring, and this product rollout affirms this vision.

This is the beginning of something much more powerful. Any investor who thinks Amazon shares are expensive is crazy.

The report of bribery in Amazon’s system and the subsequent short-term weakness in the shares is a great chance to buy Amazon on the dip because this stock is going higher.

Anybody would be a fool to short Amazon.

This company exudes quality, and many would agree with me.

 

 

 

Just The Beginning And More Smart Products On The Way

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/smart-products-image-3-e1537822790293.jpg 308 400 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-09-25 01:06:172018-09-24 21:06:50Amazon’s Home Invasion
MHFTR

September 25, 2018 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“People who are right most of the time are people who change their minds often,” said Jeff Bezos, Amazon cofounder, chairman and CEO.

 

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MHFTR

September 24, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
September 24, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(BAD NEWS FROM MICRON TECHNOLOGY (MU),
(MU), (BABA), (KLAC), (LRCX), (INTC), (AMD), (NVDA), (HPQ)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-09-24 01:07:092018-09-21 19:54:33September 24, 2018
MHFTR

Bad News from Micron Technology (MU)

Tech Letter

If your stomach was on edge before, then you must feel quite queasy now.

That’s only if you didn’t get rid of your chip stocks when I told you to.

The chip sector has been rife with issues for quite some time now, and I’ve been firing off bearish chip stories the past few months.

Intel (INTC) was one of the last chip companies I told you to avoid like the plague, please click here to review that story.

The contagion has spread wider.

Micron (MU), the Boise, Idaho-based chip giant, delivered poor guidance from its latest earnings report, adding more carnage to this trouble sector.

It’s been rough sailing for many American-based chip companies lately that are not named Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Nvidia (NVDA).

The protracted ongoing trade war between America and China that sees no end in sight is the fundamental reason to stay away from these chip companies that are the meat and potatoes inside of all electronic devices.

Cofounder of Alibaba (BABA) Jack Ma, who recently stepped down from his position as chairman, told news outlets that this trade war could last “20 years” and is “going to be a mess.”

Micron is affected by this trade war more than any other American company, with half of its annual revenue derived from the Middle Kingdom.

Out of the $20.32 billion in annual revenue last year, more than $10 billion was from China alone.

Micron is a leader in selling DRAM chips, which are placed in most portable electronic devices such as smartphones, video game consoles, and laptop computers.

The commentary coming out from chip executives has been overly negative and spells doom and gloom - supporting my view to be cautious on chips through the end of the year.

At the Citi 2018 Global Technology Conference in New York, KLA-Tencor (KLAC) chief financial officer Bren Higgins characterized the winter season DRAM market as “little less than what we thought,” describing margins as “modestly weaker.”

Lam Research (LRCX), once one of my favorite chip plays, offered bearish rhetoric about the state of chip investments, saying on its earnings call that is expected “lower spending on new equipment by some of its memory customers.”

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to know that “memory customer” is Intel, which is in the throes of a CPU chip shortage rocking the overall personal computer market.

Personal computers face a steep 7% drop in sales volume for the rest of the year, and the knock-on effect is rippling throughout the industry.

The lower volume of produced computers means less memory needed, adding up to less sales for Micron.

This rationale forced Micron to guide down its revenue growth from 22% to 16% for the last quarter of 2018.

Intel’s monumental lapse has offered a golden opportunity for competitor Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) to steal market share from Intel in broad daylight.

This was the exact thesis that provoked me to urge readers to pile into AMD shares like a Tokyo rush-hour subway car.

Shares have gone ballistic to say the least.

(AMD) is poised to seize and reposition itself in the global CPU market with a 70/30 market share, up from the paltry 90/10 market share before Intel’s debacle.

To make matters worse for Intel, widespread reports indicate its shortage problems are “worsening.”

Such is a dog-eat-dog world out there when a company can triple market share in a blink of an eye.

The rotation is real with HP (HPQ) planning to integrate AMD chips into 30% of its consumer PCs, and Dell already mentioning it will use AMD chips to make up for the shortages.

The resilience in chip demand remains the silver lining for this industry as price weakness and production shortages will be finite.

Server demand remains particularly robust.

Google, Amazon, Facebook, and Microsoft coughed up $34.7 billion on data centers to serve cloud-based operation in the first half of the year in 2018, a sharp increase of 59% YOY.

Investors have been paranoid of the boom-bust nature of the chip industry for decades.

Each cycle sees spending and chip pricing rocket, only for inventories to build up and demand to evaporate in an instant.

The beginning of the end always starts with lower guidance, followed up with missed earnings the next quarter.

This playbook has repeated itself over and over.

Micron guided first quarter revenue of 2019 in a range between $7.9 billion to $8.3 billion, lower than the consensus of $8.45 billion.

And, if all of this horrid chip news wasn’t reason to rip your hair out - here is the bombshell.

To wean itself off the reliance of American chips, Alibaba has created a subsidiary to produce its own chips called Pingtouge Semiconductor Company.

Pingtouge refers to honey badger in the Chinese language, symbolic for its tenacity in the face of adversity – perhaps a thinly-veiled dig at the American political system.

Former Chairman Ma pocketed this chip company Hangzhou C-SKY Microsystems last year. It will will be given ample leeway and resources to team up with Alibaba to roll out its first commercial chip next year.

Alibaba has rapidly grown into the third-largest cloud player in the world, and require an abundant source of chips moving forward.

Chips tricked out with artificial intelligence will be adopted by not only its data centers, but integrated with its autonomous driving technology and IoT products, which are markets that Alibaba is proud to be part.

You can find Alibaba’s cloud products present in more than 20 countries. And the company that Jack Ma built forecasts to generate more than 50% of its revenue from overseas markets soon.

It could be Jack Ma laughing all the way to the bank.

Ultimately, Micron produced fair results last quarter, but like Facebook found out, if investors believe the company is about to fall off a cliff, it offers little resistance to the share price on a short-term basis.

Could the cyclicality demons start to awake to drag this company down?

Partially, yes, but there are still many positives to take away from this leading chip company.

China will need years to remedy its addiction of American chips.

It will not be able to produce the scope of quality or quantity to just stop buying from American companies for the foreseeable future.

The authorized $10 billion share buyback gave Micron shares a nice lift earlier this year, but the industry dynamics are now deteriorating rapidly.

Chip sentiment is at its lowest ebb for some time, and I reaffirm my call to avoid this sector completely unless it’s the two cornerstone chip companies showing systematic resiliency - (AMD) or Nvidia (NVDA).

The administration initially slapped on a tariff rate of 10% on $200 billion worth of goods with intentions to scale it up.

If nothing is solved, the increase to 25% will cause another 5% to 10% drop in Micron and Intel.

Then if the administration plans to go after the rest of the $250 billion of Chinese imports, expect another dive in chip shares.

Either way, each jawboning tweet as we head deeper into this trade conflict will damage Micron’s shares.

This sector is getting squeezed from many sides now, and if you don’t go outright short chip companies, then stay away until the storm clouds pass over and you can reassess the situation.

 

 

 

 

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MHFTR

September 24, 2018 - Quote of the Day

Quote of the Day, Tech Letter

“No one wins in a trade war, and manufacturing workers are hopeful the administration's approach will quickly yield results,” said National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) president and CEO Jay Timmons.

 

 

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