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MHFTR

How to Play “Software as a Service”

Tech Letter

If you have read any of our content in the first year of the Mad Hedge Technology Letter, the content is distinctly bullish technology stocks.

A fundamental driver propelling this cogent argument is the dominant Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) industry booming inside the confines of Silicon Valley.

If you want to boil down your tech investment thesis to one indispensable rule – only invest in tech companies that carve out prominent SaaS businesses.

If you stick with this nostrum, you will be delivered profits in spades.

We have recently taken in a swarm of new tech letter subscribers and understanding the panacea that is SaaS will entrench your portfolio in a glorious position to reap untold profits.

What is SaaS?

SaaS is a distribution method in which software is diffused to paid subscribers, usually on an annual, reoccurring payment plan, and the software is remotely stored on a centralized cloud platform awaiting use.

Unsurprisingly, SaaS remains the most lucrative segment of the cloud market.

In 2017, the tech industry did $60.2 billion in annual SaaS sales, that number is poised to explode to $117.1 billion in 2021.

The near doubling of sales underscores the robust nature of these tech firms setting up businesses of this ilk, and the positive effects dripping down to the bottom line.

Simply put, no SaaS business, no reason to invest.

SaaS isn’t the only cloud revenue companies can carve out. Tech firms also offer platform-as-a-service (PaaS) and infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS).

However, SaaS is by far the prominent growth lever in the high-margin cloud industry.

The indomitable presence inside the SaaS industry is Bill Gates’ creation Microsoft (MSFT).

Microsoft leads all companies with a 17% global share of the SaaS market.

The Redmond, Washington, outfit blew past stalwart Salesforce (CRM) nine quarters ago.

Microsoft’s sizzling SaaS business is an oversized contributor to its 45% revenue growth rate, which is head-and-shoulders above the industry average.

Salesforce (CRM), Adobe (ADBE), Oracle (ORCL) and SAP (SAP) fill out the top five largest global SaaS businesses, but it is really a tale of two stories.

Oracle and SAP, which are competing in the same market, are grappling with legacy database businesses and legacy tech, which are punished by investors.

John Dinsdale, a chief analyst at Synergy Research Group, mentioned two outliers of “Cisco (CSCO) and Google too who are making ever-bigger inroads into the SaaS market” leveraging Cisco’s multitude of software assets and Google’s G Suite.

The thing that makes SaaS the x-factor for tech companies is that inevitably every company from every walk of life will adopt this mode of software, giving legs to this distribution model.

Vendors are scrambling to put together some resemblance of a SaaS product together, and this trend is a vital contributor to an industry that is growing 32% YOY worldwide.

Kevin Cochrane, chief marketing officer of SAP Customer Experience lay bare his thoughts about this type of service describing it as the “Golden Age of SaaS.”

Companies are becoming digital first from end to end, explaining the sharp rise in IT professional salaries and rise in quality software products.

As we look around the corner to the IaaS part of the cloud industry, which is growing at around 30% YOY, there is one dominant player, and everybody knows its name.

Amazon (AMZN) is the No. 1 vendor with Microsoft, Alibaba (BABA), Google, and International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) trailing behind.

The top four IaaS players have carved out a total of 73% of the global market ravaging any resemblance of competition.

Amazon is the industry standard with the best record of customer success.

If Amazon branched off into the SaaS industry, it could unlock an additional $100 billion in annual revenue.

A shift into this direction could pad Amazon’s margin’s even more after successfully boosting North American e-commerce margins from 2.4% to 4.7%.

It’s not entirely inconceivable that Amazon could break the $2 trillion valuation in three to five years, as its revved up digital ad business registered growth of 129% YOY last quarter.

Microsoft seized the runner-up position in the IaaS market to Amazon by growing 98% YOY with sales eclipsing $3.1 billion in 2017.

Wherever you turn, whether toward the cloud business or gaming, investors can find Microsoft making sales.

Microsoft has been a favorite of the Mad Hedge Technology Letter and it’s hard pressed to find a better public tech company in operation now.

The SaaS industry is not a one-size-fits-all proposition.

Thus, there is abundant room for niche offerings that quench companies’ demand for specific services.

This is the reason why cloud companies have participated in a non-stop buying binge of smaller companies that fit their needs.

Microsoft purchased developer favorite GitHub for $7.5 billion earlier this year, and similar examples are scattered all over the tech ecosphere.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) will be the kicker that powers SaaS performance to new heights because incorporating this groundbreaking technology will enhance functionality and, in return, raise profits for all involved.

The scalability of SaaS products has allowed companies to offer software for affordable prices allowing the smallest of firms to adopt a digital-first strategy.

This software connects with other software seamlessly integrating an array of productive apps that help teams overperform and overdeliver.

In the American workplace, 73% of companies will be exclusively using SaaS to function by 2020.

American companies are using 16 apps on average per day, a 33% jump in the number of apps they were using just two years ago.

The migration to mobile has swallowed up SaaS products as well with more mobile-specific software rolling out to mobile devices.

The meteoric rise of SaaS offerings has cut IT security budgets substantially as security has been delegated to the cloud instead of in expensive in-house security teams.

No longer do tech firms need to beef up guarding their own gates.

Protection is provided on a centralized cloud with a third-party company ensuring safety.

This development has helped a new industry rise – cloud security.

Whether people realize it or not, the SaaS industry is here to stay and will become more prevalent in every industry going forward.

This is incredibly bullish for companies that sell SaaS products as revenue will continue to rise.

 

 

 

 

________________________________________________________________________________________________

Quote of the Day

“Growth and comfort do not coexist,” – said CEO of IBM Ginni Rometty.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Saas-image-3-e1536717382380.jpg 324 580 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-09-12 01:05:082018-09-12 02:12:03How to Play “Software as a Service”
MHFTR

September 11, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
September 11, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(IS IT TIME TO PICK UP THE SLACK?),
SLACK WORKSPACE APP

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-09-11 01:06:542018-09-10 21:27:41September 11, 2018
MHFTR

Is It Time to Pick Up the Slack?

Tech Letter

Being a stone’s throw away from the pulse of Silicon Valley, I have been showered with acute insights to which I otherwise would be oblivious.

This finely developed acumen is vital to keep my head above water and offer insights unfounded in any other newsletter.

The margins of victory and failure are becoming finer with each passing day, and that goes tenfold for the hyper-cutthroat trading world where each investor fights daily for his crust of bread.

The same thin margins apply for the tech industry whose prodigious march to profits has dwarfed any other industry.

Its far-reaching effects has brought forth social change unparallel to any other time in history.

The Mad Hedge Technology Letter has chronicled the messenger platforms rolled out by public companies such as Facebook and Snapchat, and their lust for profit extraction from every corner of the globe.

But there is another war going on in one nearby corner outside of our social lives I have yet to touch upon that will have profound consequences.

Enter the office.

The battle for hegemony in the workplace to evangelize a supreme workplace app is a big deal.

The office is where most semi-sober, semi-sane adults make a living, and where they allocate the lion’s share of sunlight hours before they mosey on home.

Slack, a workspace messenger app, has become the dominant way to communicate with professionals using collaborative messaging services, and offering integration with all legitimate apps that workers leverage to get work done.

After another round of fundraising, the company is now valued at more than $7 billion.

The $7.1 billion price tag is $2 billion more than the price only last September when Masayoshi Son’s SoftBank dipped its toes in to the tune of $250 million.

Overall, the company has at least 41 investors to its name.

This latest $427 million capital injection was led by Dragoneer Investment Group and General Atlantic, both private equity groups on the forefront of investing in transformative Silicon Valley firms.

Employees’ appetite for enterprise software has mushroomed in recent times, highlighting the dire need for progressive workplace apps liaising with other major productivity applications.

The smooth display interface and ease of use has spawned a monumental rush inside offices to adopt this sleek looking app called Slack.

Competition is coming with Microsoft and Facebook intent on disrupting Slack’s newfound success in the workspace area.

Slack is one of the most popular apps distributed by start-up companies and the numbers back it up.

The company has blown by 8 million daily active users (DAU).

Considering Slack only had 1 million users three years ago makes this feat even more impressive.

Of the 8 million (DAU)s, 3 million are paid subscribers.

Slack follows the freemium model such as other tech firms like Spotify, which lure customers in for free and allow access to its platform.

The free users are the biggest source of converts to its paid reoccurring subscription revenue.

Slack proves its worth by enhancing each product iteration based on diligent analyzation of customer feedback.

A no-brainer for many firms, but you would be surprised how many companies forgo this critical source of data.

Slack streamlines the process of communicating with work buddies.

No matter what industry or specialization with which you grapple, Slack makes it easy to share information over its platform.

In fact, Slack is an acronym for “searchable log of all communication and knowledge.”

Workplace portals can be initiated right away around projects or assignments, and the sense of team bred through this innovative communication channel offers the impetus for coworkers to contribute immediately.

Speed is money in tech land, and Slack gives a reason for coworkers to shun emails all together.

Being a customer-centric workplace app, any malfunctions in the harmony of its operations are met with instant patches of fixes so workers can carry out their time-sensitive tasks.

Other advanced functions aiding workers is the advanced search function allowing users to search for messages that were sent days, weeks, months, or even years ago.

Slack messages accommodate the trend for replying using a hoard of emoji’s, which has become a standard response as the emoji has taken a life of its own in the business world.

It has been found through surveys that emojis are a more effective way to respond to messages that need a blunt opinion.

Millennials are the tech-savvy generation that christened emojis as a normalized way of communication, and they are Slack’s target audience.

Another function allows users to type short code into its interface, triggering the software to remind users of a task and at a specific date and time.

Fastcompany.com smartly described Slack as “a virtual mash-up of the conference room and water cooler, with a pinch of corner office chit-chat.”

Slack is known for uber-productivity.

And if it’s something that a top-quality worker should harness such as referencing, enhancing, prioritizing, delegating, sharing, or creating - the app facilitates these traits seamlessly.

Slack certainly will boost the productivity of your team’s performance once the team gets a hang of its tools.

The emphasis of enterprise collaboration will continue as more work teams band together remotely.

This app perfectly captures functionality and meets the needs from companies where all users are online and live in different time zones.

If Slack continues evolving at its current speed, it could shortly wipe out emails.

Emails are a legacy type of communicative tool for companies, and its outdated interface is ripe for disruption.

Gmail’s disciples must have noticed that the past few iterations of Gmail have looked more and more like Slack, as it steals from other workplace app functions to upgrade its own workplace services.

All of this explains why Slack has been adding 2 million users per year and still has enormous potential for further disruption and growth.

Most early-stage companies are massive cash burners.

Reports from Didi Chuxing, the Chinese ride-sharing firm that bought out Uber in China, exposed the double-edged sword of being an up-and-coming tech firm.

Growth is often put up on a pedestal with profits relegated to the sidelines.

Even though Didi Chuxing is the dominant player in China, the exorbitant subsidies dished out to scarce drivers have devoured cash flow metrics.

Didi Chuxing has lost an astonishing $580 million in the first six months of 2018.

Slack is cash-flow positive.

An extraordinary accomplishment for an industry littered with firms exercising their industry right to spoon feed excuses of indulgent losses until their IPO day.

Even more impressive, Slack is only 5 years old and has already signed up more than 70,000 workgroup teams for its platform.

Slack has avoided even talking about going public, and this is bad news for retail investors hoping to get in on the action.

The carnage that tech firms have faced in front of Congress and in the press have budding tech firms rethinking if it’s worth opening themselves up to such torturous criticism.

Mark Zuckerberg is now the whipping boy on Capitol Hill.

Why risk it when bountiful funds await through venture capitalist coffers chomping at the bit to pay a premium for the latest hot tech company?

Elon Musk’s personal meltdown does not help either.

Sadly, it will be years before Slack chooses to go public - and most likely when the business becomes ex-growth.

Yes, it’s unfair to the average Joe, but life is unfair.

Money talks and as Slack feeds back its fresh capital into energizing its product, the valuation will rise to epic heights along with its DAU numbers.

If your office isn’t using Slack yet, it will soon.

Or…it’s probably not a modern place to work.

To visit its official website and sign up for free, please click here.

 

 

________________________________________________________________________________________________

Quote of the Day

“You should learn from your competitor, but never copy. Copy and you die,” – said Alibaba cofounder Jack Ma.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Slack-image-1-e1536614335791.jpg 242 580 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-09-11 01:05:512018-09-10 21:28:02Is It Time to Pick Up the Slack?
MHFTR

September 10, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
September 10, 2018
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:
(GOOGLE’S BREAKFAST OF ROTTEN EGGS),
(TWTR), (FB), (GOOGL), (MSFT), (AMZN)

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MHFTR

Google’s Breakfast of Rotten Eggs

Tech Letter

In a recent interview Google CEO Sundar Pichai admitted he is “not a morning person” and maybe that was his argument for skipping out on the grilling that his contemporaries Facebook (FB) COO Sheryl Sandberg and CEO of Twitter (TWTR) Jack Dorsey received in front of Congress.

Or maybe Pichai managed to down a rotten egg that morning when eating his favorite staple breakfast “omelet with toast," because his decision to abort his date with Congress was a shocking error of judgment for a CEO that has had a flair for controversy lately.

With the whole world watching, the empty chair with a simple name tag with Google plastered over it represents the arrogance and excesses of Silicon Valley all mixed into one incongruous mixture.

This rookie move will open a can of worms for the company made famous by its search algorithm that dominates the developed world.

Google will have a target on its back going forward while creating a massive public relations backlash for a company that must fiercely defend its ad-laden profit engine going forward.

Instead of taking it on the chin like Facebook and Twitter, Google has voluntarily veered into a sticky situation, and all to avoid a few stomach wrenching questions from Congress.

How did this all happen?

In the beginning of June, Google decided to scrap its relationship with the U.S. Department of Defense.

Project Maven, as it was known, provided Google’s artificial intelligence (A.I.) technology to systematically analyze drone footage for the U.S. government.

Pichai chose to avoid renewing the contract, and Google Cloud CEO Diane Greene agreed it was a black eye for the company that applied its own technology to conspire against damaging human life.

Throwing fat on the fire, Pichai followed up by dismantling Project Maven and giving the thumbs up for code-name Dragonfly. This was a secret project aimed at the mainland Chinese market and rolling out a censored version of Google’s search engine by altering its construction of unique search algorithms for a mainland Chinese audience.

This incensed the higher-ups on Capitol Hill, as this move was largely viewed as pandering toward the Chinese communist government for monetary purposes at an uber-sensitive time between the two powerhouse nations, which remain mired in a tumultuous trade war.

The timing couldn’t be worse for Pichai.

Dragonfly is already in beta mode and could be rolled out in the near future. However, I see it as dead on arrival, because there is no hope that Google can penetrate the fortress that is the Chinese business world.

Naturally, Google employees were dismayed and shocked by these startling revelations.

Pichai’s conspicuous no-show was in part driven by the potential wrath he would have faced by these recent reckless decisions that seemed to put the American government’s interests below the Chinese communist government.

The circus was there for everyone to see.

Sheryl Sandberg put on her bravest face.

It was obvious she had rehearsed every word to the utmost precision while Dorsey vehemently guarded his brainchild with honesty and zeal.

The testimonies made social media look perceivably criminal with a congressman even hinting the reason they aren’t allowed to do business in China was mainly a business model issue, and more specifically a legal issue.

Another congressman from West Virginia suggested Facebook’s Instagram was the source of the opioid epidemic ripping apart his state.

The only thing getting ripped apart during the intense grilling was Sheryl Sandberg’s well-practiced smile.

Dorsey and Sandberg were visibly uncomfortable with the line of questioning and rightly so.

Google would have looked worse if it showed up. But it managed to look 10 times worse than that by stonewalling the government’s invitation.

In a recent Pew Survey, data revealed 44% of youth between 18 to 29 last year deleted Facebook on their mobile phones.

Facebook is already a legacy platform in the throes of disruption cannibalized by its own asset - Instagram.

Instagram will be the sole survivor of Facebook by taking out Facebook itself, and that is bearish for overall business.

And that is if social media can hang on that long before it’s taken down by the hawks circling above in Washington.

When Facebook’s Cambridge Analytica scandal broke, the government was at sixes and sevens at attempting to figure out what on earth was going on behind the smoke and mirrors of the big data theatrics.

CEO Mark Zuckerberg was let off the hook with questions he wriggled out of, and Facebook shares powered on unabated.

This time it’s different.

Regulation is an imminent threat to social media revenues and could hurt earnings this quarter.

Investors need to migrate to higher tide, meaning Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT), because the waves still aren’t yet reaching those levels.

Amazon and Microsoft need to send a thank you note to Alphabet for screwing the pooch.

The administration has felt it convenient to barrage Silicon Valley to solidify the Republican base, and this tactic has resonated with the administration’s diehards.

A smorgasbord of FANG-bashing was the recipe to this madness. But now sights will be zoned in on dismantling Google, and Microsoft and Amazon will benefit from avoiding nasty, gut-churning headlines that turn up in the form of Twitter blitzkrieg.

Yes, Sheryl Sandberg, Facebook was “too slow” to react to foreign interference in the elections. But it is more accurate to characterize the battle social media faces against outside nefarious forces as impossible.

It is impossible for these social media platforms to police themselves while policing the whole world.

The incessant whack-a-mole scenario is the best-case outcome for the self-policing prospects of social media.

Once social media algorithms figure out how to stopgap one method of circumvention, the bad actors will move on to a more advanced way to manipulate the algorithmic police.

What does this mean for social media?

Costs are going up and will seep into profit margins.

Highlighting the upward trend of rising expenses for social media platforms is the daily cost of keeping CEO Mark Zuckerberg safe.

And remember, he lives in Palo Alto, California, one of the safest places on planet earth with a medium household income of $137,000.

In 2017, Facebook divvied up $7.3 million for Zuckerberg’s security detail and costs associated to it.

In 2018, shareholders approved a $10 million security package to keep Facebook’s head honcho safe. This underscored the ballooning risk of leading this controversial technology forum littered with conflict of interests, and on the verge of potentially perverting western democracy.

By the end of 2018, Facebook will increase its security division from 10,000 employees to 20,000.

And that is just the beginning.

Facebook’s security division is the fastest-growing division of fresh hires at Facebook.

Before Facebook and Twitter can ring in the profits, they face an exorbitant war against foreign “bot armies” intent on muddying the free flow of accurate information on domestic shores that target individuals deemed unaligned to the foreign actor’s interests.

There will be collateral damage and lots of it.

This does not sound like an easy road to profits, and it is not.

As midterm elections creep closer and closer, Facebook and Twitter must confront elevated headline risk, and any trading day could see shares wacked with a 10% haircut.

Following the government question-and-answer period, Twitter and Facebook will be designing a new resistance to stymie villainous foreign infiltration.

Ultimately, spending the bulk of employees’ work days realigning their business models to protect democracy, instead of creating new growth drivers, is not bullish for the stock price.

It is hard to breed much confidence in social media stock’s long-term narrative after listening to Dorsey and Sandberg speak.

They kept touching on needing help from government intelligence sources to aid them in catching the miscreants.

It makes sense to gradually nationalize social media platforms to unite the disconnect between social media’s war against foreign forces and the intelligence communities war against them.

It is clear hackers are exploiting the dislocation in cohesiveness between the cracks in social media and government intelligence.

But if that ever happens, it would be the end of Facebook and Twitter as we know it, as normal users would be averse to providing free content on a government-enabled platform as well as a strong blow to democracy itself.

It all makes sense now why Dorsey and Sandberg gave the answers they gave.

Their answers were akin to a faint plea for help while appearing contrite, hoping to persuade Congress to give them more time to figure it out.

This thinly veiled attempt to elongate the profit-making process and find a solution for a problem with no solution could end badly for these two companies.

Migrate to higher quality tech names in the short-term.

The resilient American economy powers on with the heavy lifting done by Silicon Valley albeit it with fewer lifters.

If social media stocks can get through the midterm elections unscathed, there is a trade on the table for these beleaguered companies rounding out a tumultuous year.

But getting to that point will be volatile, as this group of stocks have a rocky road ahead of them for the rest of the year.

 

I’m Not A Morning Person

 

 

 

 

________________________________________________________________________________________________

Quote of the Day

“I'm not a regular smoker of weed. Almost never,” – said CEO of Tesla Elon Musk on The Joe Rogan Experience podcast.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Google-image-1.jpg 420 387 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-09-10 01:05:172018-09-07 18:49:04Google’s Breakfast of Rotten Eggs
MHFTR

September 6, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
September 6, 2018
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:
(THE SMART PLAYS IN FINTECH),
(SQ), (PYPL), (JPM), (COF), (WFC), (BAC),
(MGI), (GRUB), (BABA), (NFLX)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-09-06 01:06:152018-09-05 20:01:04September 6, 2018
MHFTR

The Smart Plays in Fintech

Tech Letter

Fintech is all the rage now, and it’s time for investors to grab a piece of the action.

The tech sectors’ stellar performance in 2018 is a little taste of things to come as every industry forcibly pushes toward software and artificial intelligence to enhance products and services.

Bull markets don’t die of old age and some of these tech stalwarts are truly defying gravity.

The fintech sector is no exception.

Square (SQ) led by tech visionary Jack Dorsey has been a favorite of the Mad Hedge Technology Letter practically from the newsletter’s inception.

But another company has caught my eye that most of you already know about – PayPal (PYPL).

PayPal, a digital payments company, has extraordinary core drivers and a splendid growth trajectory.

Its arsenal of services includes digital wallets, money transfers, P2P payments, and credit cards.

It also has Venmo.

Venmo, a digital payment app, is the strongest growth lever in PayPal’s umbrella of assets right now, and was the first meaningful digital payment app in America.

It was established by Andrew Kortina and Iqram Magdon-Ismail, who were roommates at the University of Pennsylvania, and the company was bought out by PayPal for $800 million in 2014, marking a new chapter in PayPal’s evolution.

Funny enough, Venmo’s original use was to buy mp3 formatted songs via email in 2009.

Venmo is wildly popular with tech savvy millennials. A brief survey conducted illustrates how fashionable Venmo is by recording higher user statistics than Apple Pay.

The app is commonly used for ordering pizza through Uber Eats or Grubhub (GRUB), or even shelling out for monthly rent.

If you want to stir up your imagination even more, Venmo has a prominent social feed where users can view other Venmo users’ purchases.

Financial models suggest Venmo could contribute $300 million to the PayPal top line in 2021. If Venmo executes perfectly, revenue could surpass the $1 billion mark in 2021, with much higher operating margins than PayPal’s core products.

Even though management declines to speak specifically about Venmo, the dialogue in the earnings call usually provides some color into what is going on underneath the hood.

Xoom, a digital remittance distributor app with offices in San Francisco and Guatemala City owned by PayPal, along with Venmo grew payment volume by 50% YOY, surging to $33 billion annually.

Of that $33 billion in volume, $19 billion was contributed by Venmo and Xoom chipped in with $14 billion.

More than 60,000 new merchants joined PayPal’s array of platforms, adding up to more than 19.5 million total merchants.

All in all, PayPal locked in $3.86 billion of sales last quarter, which was a 23% YOY jump in revenue, at a time where widespread acceptance of fintech platforms is brisk.

PayPal raised its end-of-year forecast and rewarded shareholders with authorization of a $10 billion buyback.

Upward margin expansion, expanding market share, multiple revenue stream, and untapped pricing power is the recipe to PayPal’s meteoric rise.

PayPal’s share price has climbed higher from a base of $73 at the beginning of the year to an all-time high of more than $90.

Offering more proof fintech is alive and kicking is Jack Dorsey’s Square’s dizzying rise of more than 200% YOY in its share price.

The company is exceeding all revenue growth expectations and is poised to ramp up subscription revenue.

As with the Venmo app, Square’s Cash app has unrealized potential and will be one of the outperforming profit drivers going forward.

Square hopes to be the one-stop-shop for all types of digital payment needs including consumer finance, equity purchases, possibly international transfers, and cryptocurrency.

All of this is happening amid a robust secular story that could have seen traditional banks swept into the dustbin of history.

Rewind a few years ago, perusing the data about the movement to digital payments must have frightened the living daylights out of the executives from major Wall Street mainstays.

Digital wallets assertive migration into mainstream money payment services could have detached traditional banks’ core businesses.

Slogging your way to a physical bank to put in a wire transfer was not appealing.

Archaic methods of business are painful to see, and traditional banks were still operating this way as of 2015.

Time is money and technology has crashed the traditional waiting time to almost zero.

The way these tech companies operate is simple.

They compete to hire a hoard of advanced computer developers or shortcut the process using the time-honored tradition of poaching the competition’s best talent.

Then snatch market share at all costs and grow like crazy.

Banks badly needed introducing some functions to their array of services such as linking with third-party payment APIs to facilitate online payments and enabling cross-platform digital payments.

Other functions such as establishing modern peer-to-peer payment systems or adopting QR code technology that are wildly popular in East Asia could enhance optionality as well.

These are several instruments they could have amalgamated into their arsenal of fintech technology that could have freshened up these dinosaur institutions.

Harmonizing banking tasks with mobile functionality was fast coming and would be the standard.

Anyone not on board would sink like the Titanic.

Ultimately, banking institutions needed to up their game and acquire one of these digital wallet processors or watch from the sidelines.

They chose the former when a consortium called Early Warning Services (EWS) jointly created by behemoth American banks, including JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Capital One (COF), Bank of America (BAC), and Wells Fargo (WFC) to “prevent fraud and reduce detection risk” made a game-changing decision.

(EWS) acquired digital payment app Zelle in 2016, and this was its aggressive response to Square Cash and PayPal’s Venmo.

Results have been nothing short of breathtaking.

Leveraging the embedded base of existing banking relationships, Zelle took off like a scalded chimp and never looked back.

In a blink of an eye, Zelle had already signed up more than 30 banks and over 100 financial institutions to its platform.

Banks couldn’t bear being left out of the fintech party.

With hearty conviction, Zelle is signing up users at a pace of 100,000 per day, and the volume of payments in 2017 eclipsed $75 billion.

Zelle projects to expand more than 73% in 2018, integrating 27.4 million new accounts in the U.S., head and shoulders above Venmo’s 22.9 million and Square Cash due to add 9.5 million more users.

Make no bones about it, Zelle was in prime position to convert existing relationships into digital converts. The banks that do not have an interest in Zelle have an uphill climb to stay relevant.

The United States is rather late to this secular growth story. That being said, already 57% of Americans have used a mobile wallet at least once in their lives.

Innovative ideas bring supporters galore and even more adoptees.

That is why the strong pivot into technological enhanced ideas bear unlimited fruit.

Using a mobile platform to just open an app then send funds within a split second with minimal costs is appealing for the Netflix (NFLX) crazed generation that can hardly get off the couch.

Ironically, it’s those in the emerging parts of the world leading this fintech revolution by skipping the traditional banking experience completely and downloading digital wallet apps on their mobile devices.

It’s entirely realistic that some fresh-faced youth have never been present at a physical banking branch before in India or China.

Download an app and your fiscal life commences. Period.

The volume of funds passing through the arteries of Chinese digital wallet apps surpassed $15 trillion in 2017.

And by 2021, 79.3% of the Chinese population are projected to use digital wallets as their main source of splurging Chinese yuan.

America lags a country mile behind China, but the Chinese progress has offered American tech companies a crystal-clear blueprint to springboard digital payment initiatives.

Chinese state banks are already starting to become marginalized, and the Wall Street banks are not immune to the same fate.

Devoid of a digital strategy will be a death knell to certain banking institutions.

Compare the pace of adoption and some must question why American adoption is tardy to a fault.

Highlighting the lackadaisical pace of American fintech integration was Alibaba’s (BABA) smash-and-grab attempt at MoneyGram International Inc. (MGI), as it sought to gain a foothold into the American fintech market.

The attempt was rebuffed by the federal government.

The nascent state of the digital payment world in America must alarm Silicon Valley experts. And the run-up in Square and PayPal includes calculated bets that these two standouts will leapfrog into the future with guns blazing along with Zelle.

The parabolic nature of Square’s mystifying gap up means that a moderate pullback is warranted to put capital to work in this name.

Investors should wait for a timely entry point into PayPal as well.

These two stocks have overextended themselves.

As the fintech pie extrapolates, there will be multiple victors, and these victors are already taking shape in the form of Zelle, PayPal, and Square.

 

 

 

 

 

________________________________________________________________________________________________

Quote of the Day

“In the not-too-distant future, commerce is just going to be commerce. It won't be online commerce or offline commerce. It's just going to be commerce. And that will happen because of the phone,” – said CEO of PayPal Dan Schulman.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/mobile-phone-p2p-payments-transaction-image-4-e1536176894297.jpg 531 580 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-09-06 01:05:212018-09-05 20:00:17The Smart Plays in Fintech
MHFTR

September 5, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
September 5, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(WARREN BUFFETT’S GREAT TECH FIND IN INDIA),
(BRK/B), (AAPL), (GOOGL), (MSFT), (BABA), (NFLX)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-09-05 01:06:552018-09-04 20:24:20September 5, 2018
MHFTR

Warren Buffett’s Great Tech Find in India

Tech Letter

Warren Buffett preaches searching among your “circle of competence” to find those gems of companies that will offer abundant value in the far future.

His time horizon has always been long – 10, 20, 30 years where a company has sufficient time to execute its business strategy.

The celebrated investor’s track record is unrivaled.

Another critical rule to his playbook of uncanny success is to invest in companies within your area of expertise to avoid erroneous investment decisions.

If an investor is uncertain if a company is within its “circle of competence,” then it is likely outside the circle and best to skip investing in the company for now.

The Oracle of Omaha has taken his investment playbook to the chicken tikka masala-loving country of India, dropping a few Benjamín’s on One97 Communications Ltd., the parent company of Paytm, an Indian fin-tech firm.

This disrupting digital payments company based in Noida, India, is the nation’s largest mobile-payments firm and quite an achievement in a country that loves paper cash.

It boasts a popular smartphone app used in daily lives, and mirrors digital payment businesses of the likes of China’s Alipay or Tencent’s WeChat payment platform.

When the Indian government laid down the heavy hand of fiscal regulation on the paper currency market with an eye toward the digital currency market, an outsized winner was Paytm.

The cost of printing paper money in India per year is more than $90 million by itself.

I am not saying that the Indian government is going into overdrive adopting bitcoin tomorrow, but its pivot toward fin-tech mobile payments and Buffett’s vote of approval show where all the deep lying tech value is marinating in the world.

It is not Silicon Valley that gets more expensive by the day.

Silicon Valley is largely saturated with venture capitalist firms cherry-picking the best firms before they go public and making many times their investment once they hit the New York public markets.

Well, we are still in the early stages of India’s rapidly developing tech scene. And 2018 has seen some blockbuster cash injections such as Walmart’s investment in e-commerce juggernaut Flipkart.

Buffett has championed investing into companies with a “margin of safety,” allowing him to buy stakes at levels he believes that are well below market value.

This allows him to sleep at night because even if the company tanks short-term, he knows that eventually it will pull it together.

India can now lay claim to more than 390 Internet users, and 300 million of those use Paytm.

When 77% of a country’s population is using an app, you know there is some staying power, as the first mover advantage in the tech world has a powerful and long-term network effect such as the AWS’s foray into the cloud business.

Paytm does have a crowded lineup of heavyweights breathing capital into its company in the form of investments from Masayoshi Son’s SoftBank Vision Fund and Jack Ma’s Alibaba (BABA).

China’s presence in the Indian tech scene is strong, but it has not doubled down there as it has in Southeast Asia, where it enjoys a healthier political connection that is largely void of border skirmishes.

India is the largest democracy in Asia and a strong ally of the United States. Although American tech companies won’t be welcomed with a pristine red carpet, they do have ample opportunity to invest in the burgeoning Indian tech scene.

Buffett’s stake amounts to a 3% to 4% stake in Paytm, and the valuation has spiked to more than $10 billion.

This comes on the heels of Buffett’s adding to his position in Apple (AAPL) that sees him now own 5%.

Apple’s services division is its new cash cow and is on track to eclipse $50 billion in annual revenue next year.

Apple’s services division surpassed $30 billion in the first three quarters of 2018. Its evolution comes at a timely period where smartphone growth has peaked while invaded by low-quality Chinese substitutes.

After sliding to annual low’s in April 2018 of $160, Apple has literally gone ballistic, powering past the $1 trillion valuation mark and is trading at all-time highs around $230.

Apple is another example of why this bull market is predominantly propped up by tech companies that continue to grow earnings at an insane pace.

Only a few companies have fallen into booby traps set forth by the regulatory hurdles first set by the Europeans and General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR).

Apple is losing its smartphone battle in India, but Indians can’t afford iPhones yet and even Netflix (NFLX) is seen as an expensive streaming service.

The average Indian does not possess the purchasing power that North America and Europe have.

Apple has only extracted 1% of smartphone sales in India compared to leader Xiaomi, which leads the market with a 28% share. Further down-market Chinese phone maker Oppo lags with 10% and Vivo with 12%.

It doesn’t matter for Apple.

Apple continues to milk the North American and European markets to great effect padding profits with its high-quality services business.

China was the undeveloped market that launched Apple’s profits sky high. And American tech companies are ostensibly using this same strategy in India and hoping to cement the best strategy for revenue down the road.

Buffett’s investment is finally a green light for India if there ever was one, and every Silicon venture capitalist has to be licking their chops to squeeze value out of India.

The value is deep lying, but it will pay dividends within five to 10 years as India’s economy rises with its citizen’s discretionary income.

With every Tom, Dick, and Harry lusting after the India market, it will drive valuations firmly higher for the foreseeable future.

The fear of missing out (FOMO) will expedite the pivot toward India where many of the most conservative investors could ironically end up.

The tech relationship between America and India is demonstrably synergistic with Indian born CEOs heading Google (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT) among other influential tech companies.

Berkshire’s (BRK/B) funds join the Chinese, Japanese, and Silicon Valley venture capitalist’s capital queuing at India’s front door awaiting to unlock value.

Buffett even opted out of investing in ride-sharing behemoth Uber, because apparently the “margin of safety” was not sufficient enough in the proposal.

Buffett was even quoted on a local Indian television station gushing about the country saying, “If you’ll tell me a wonderful company in India that might be available for sale, I’ll be there tomorrow.” That day has surfaced in the form of his investment in Paytm.

Apparently, Buffett’s expertise lies in India now and Indian-born Ajit Jain is one of four Berkshire executives running the company on a day-to-day basis.

This will pave the way for more tech investments in the swiftly evolving Indian tech scene, and Berkshire will ring in the profits of these Indian assets down the road.

 

 

 

 

________________________________________________________________________________________________

Quote of the Day 

“Our favorite holding period is forever,” – said legendary American investor Warren Buffett.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Smartphone-pie-chart-image-4-e1536092245855.jpg 459 580 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-09-05 01:05:342018-09-04 20:21:48Warren Buffett’s Great Tech Find in India
MHFTR

September 4, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
September 4, 2018
Fiat Lux
 

 

Featured Trade:
(READY PLAYER ONE’S INSIGHT INTO THE FUTURE OF TECHNOLOGY),
(MSFT), (SQ), (TTWO), (AMD), (NVDA), (EA), (ATVI), (PYPL), (GOOGL), (FB)

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