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MHFTR

How the Cobalt Shortage Will Lead to the $2,000 iPhone

Tech Letter

Hello $2,000 iPhone.

Flabbergasted consumers reacted last holiday season when Apple dared offer a $1,000 smartphone.

How confident this company has become!

Well, this is just the beginning.

Apple (AAPL) will be the first smartphone maker to offer a $2,000 phone, and I will tell you why!

The tech industry is going through a cumbersome wave of repricing after several high-profile debacles underscoring the true value of data.

The upward revision of data has seen more players pour into the game attempting to carve out a slice of the pie for themselves.

The reason why tech companies will start offering products at higher price points is because the inputs are rising at a rapid clip.

Apple's Development and Operations (DevOps) costs to design and maintain this outstanding product is going through the roof.

Apple's DevOps employees earn around $145,000 (before tax) per year and compensation is rising. Granted, the technology is developing and batteries are smaller, but salaries are rising at a quicker relative pace because of the dire shortage of DevOps talent in Silicon Valley.

It's possible that living in a shoebox at $4,200 per month in Mountain View, Calif., is off-putting for potential staff.

The most expensive part of an iPhone X is the OLED screen.

Apple estimated costs of $120 per screen manufacturing the Apple iPhone X. The cost doubled from LCD panels from $60 per screen.

Samsung (SSNLF) has been best of breed for screens for a while, and it is currently working on the next generation of Micro LED tech, which is the next gap up from the OLED displays of today.

Samsung has an inherent conflict of interest with Apple, creating tension between these tech stalwarts. Apple made the contentious decision to procure in-house screens at a secret manufacturing facility in Santa Clara, Calif., to avoid the constant friction.

It's common knowledge that the average price of technology shrinks over time, but the American smartphone industry has defied gravity with expected prices rising 6% to $324 in 2018.

The Apple iPhone X raw costs were around $400 per phone. There is zero chance that a next gen, enhanced Apple smartphone will cost this low ever again.

Confirming this trend are Chinese smartphones retail prices rising at 15% last year.

The cost of memory, DRAM and NAND chips, rose dramatically this past year too. As more memory is crowbarred into the design process, the costs keep trending higher.

Lithium-ion batteries only add up to 1% to 2% of OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturers) cost and probably only bumps up the cost of iPhones incrementally.

The more skittish situation is the EV (Electric Vehicles) snafu spiking total demand.

Volkswagen (VLKAY) announced its most wide-ranging electrification plans ever.

In order to achieve this lofty objective, Volkswagen has earmarked $25 billion for batteries from Samsung, LG, and Contemporary Amperex.

All told, the final investment in batteries will amount to $70 billion and another $25 billion in capital investment.

Volkswagen hopes to have 16 up and running (EV) factories by 2022, up from three today.

All told, this company will bring 80 new EV models to market by 2025.

The goal is unattainable because of a lack of in-house battery production.

CEO Matthias Muller said the reason for not manufacturing in-house batteries was, "Others can do it better than we can."

Muller will rue the decision down the line as a myriad of companies migrate toward in-house solutions, giving firms more control over the process and overhead.

More importantly, Muller will have to rely on the ebb and flow of rising cobalt prices.

A battery for an (EV) ranges between $8,000 to $20,000, comprising the largest input for the (EV) makers such as Tesla (TSLA) and Ford (F).

Making matters worse, companies cut from all cloth are hoarding cobalt reserves based on anticipating the potential demand.

This phenomenon will cause all big tech players to replenish any reserves of base materials immediately.

Apple has had chip shortage problems in the past. This year is even worse than 2017, with NAND and DRAM chip supply trailing demand by 30%.

Tech companies have been hastily locking down contracts in advance to ensure the necessary materials to produce their flashy gadgets on a highly pressurized deadline.

Lithium battery demand is expected to rise 45% between 2017 and 2020, and there has been no meaningful large-scale investment into this industry.

Battery production made up 51% of cobalt demand in 2016 and will hit around 62% by 2022.

Compounding the complexity is 60% of global cobalt production is found in one country - the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).

DRC is a hotspot for geopolitical fallout and its history is littered with civil war, internal conflict, and poor infrastructure.

The 21st century will be dependent on a chosen group of valuable materials. Cobalt is shaping up to be the leader of this pack and is needed in a plethora of business applications such as EVs, lithium-ion batteries, and PCs.

Cobalt is vital in metallurgical applications that include aerospace rotating parts, military and defense, thermal sprays, prosthetics, and much more.

The DRC recently proposed a revised mining law increasing taxes on cobalt and other precious metals. The legislation has yet to be written into stone and would certainly jack up the price of cobalt.

Everybody wants a cut of the cobalt game.

Glencore's (GLNCY) management has noted this mining tax is "challenging" at a time it is just completing its Katanga expansion.

Katanga has the potential to become the largest global copper and cobalt producer.

Copper is equally important to cobalt since cobalt production is a by-product of copper and nickel mining. Only 2% of cobalt results directly from cobalt mining, and 60% via copper mining, and 38% via nickel mining.

Last year, Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) was dangling its cobalt project to outside investors in the DRC but was unable to fetch a premium price.

In a blink of an eye, China Molybdenum Co. (CMCLF) swooped in and (FCX) accepted an offer of $2.65 billion. (FXC) used the sale to pay down debt while the price of cobalt has taken off to the moon.

It gets worse. China owns 80% of refined global cobalt production and 90% of its operations are in the DRC.

China is attempting to corner the cobalt market in the DRC, gaining a stranglehold on future technological devices, (EV)s, and big data.

The keys to future technological hegemony lie in the sparsely inhabited jungles of the DRC. China has the first mover advantage and backing of the communist party as (CMCLF) strives to be a global dominator in cobalt production.

China has smartly wriggled its way down to the bottom of the supply chain capturing cobalt resources. If a trade war ensues, China can simply cut off cobalt supply lines to whomever.

There is nothing CFIUS or Donald Trump can do about it.

America's 14% of global cobalt production will be insufficient to produce the new (EV)s, iPhone 11s, gizmos and gadgets that American consumers have grown to embrace.

Analysts expected Apple to acquire some supplementary companies aiding in expansion following the overseas repatriation.

A thriving software outfit or a company of cloud developers would have sufficed. However, reports streaming in that Apple has entered into negotiations to buy a five-year supply of cobalt directly from miners for the first-time underscores where Apple's priorities lie.

Cobalt demand expects to increase by 30% from 2016 to 2020.

Apple is scared it will be locked out of the cobalt market or forced to pay ludicrous prices for its cobalt needs.

Considering the price of cobalt has quadrupled since June 2016, and smartphones are 25% of the cobalt market, it's a strategically prudent move by Apple's CEO Tim Cook in light of BMW (BMWYY) announcing the need of 10X more cobalt by 2025.

Going forward anything comprised of cobalt-based technology will garner a higher premium resulting in higher prices for consumers including that $2,000 iPhone.

(FCX) is a must buy for those who believe precious metals are the foundation to all future technology. Other intriguing names include Brazilian company Vale S.A. (VALE), and Glencore, the largest Swiss company by revenue.

Or if you have the cash, plunk it down on a cobalt mine in the DRC. But only if you're insane.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

_________________________________________________________________________________________________

Quote of the Day

"Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible," - said Lord Kelvin, President of the Royal Society, in 1895.

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MHFTR

July 5, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
July 5, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THE HIGH COST OF DRIVING OUT OUR FOREIGN TECHNOLOGISTS),
(EA), (ADBE), (BABA), (BIDU), (FB), (GOOGL), (TWTR)

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MHFTR

The High Cost of Driving Out Our Foreign Technologists

Tech Letter

There is only so much juice you can squeeze from a lemon before nothing is left.

Silicon Valley has been focused mainly on squeezing the juice out of the Internet for the past 30 years with intense focus on the American consumer.

In an era of minimal regulation, companies grew at breakneck speeds right into families' living quarters and it was a win-win proposition for both the user and the Internet.

The cream of the crop ideas was found briskly, and the low hanging fruit was pocketed by the venture capitalists (VCs).

That was then, and this is now.

No longer will VCs simply invest in various start-ups and 10 years later a Facebook (FB) or Alphabet (GOOGL) appears out of thin air.

That story is over. Facebook was the last one in the door.

VCs will become more selective because brilliant ideas must withstand the passage of time. Companies want to continue to be relevant in 20 or 30 years and not just disintegrate into obsolescence as did the Eastman Kodak Company, the doomed maker of silver-based film.

The San Francisco Bay Area is the mecca of technology, but recent indicators have presaged the upcoming trends that will reshape the industry.

In general, a healthy and booming local real estate sector is a net positive creating paper wealth for its local people and attracting money slated for expansion.

However, it's crystal clear the net positive has flipped, and housing is now a buzzword for the maladies young people face to sustain themselves in the ultra-expensive coastal Northern California megacities.

The loss of tax deductions in the recent tax bill make conditions even more draconian.

Monthly rental costs are deterring tech's future minions. Without the droves of talent flooding the area, it becomes harder for the industry to incrementally expand.

It also boosts the costs of existing development/operations staffers whose capital feeds back into the local housing market buying whatever they can barely afford for astronomical prices.

Another price spike ensues with first-time home buyers piling into already bare-bones inventory because of the fear of missing out (FOMO).

After surveying HR tech heads, it's clear there aren't enough artificial intelligence (A.I.) programmers and coders to fill internal projects.

Compounding the housing crisis is the change of immigration policy that has frightened off many future Silicon Valley workers.

There is no surprise that millions of aspiring foreign students wish to take advantage of America's treasure of a higher education because there is nothing comparable at home.

The best and brightest foreign minds are trained in America, and a mass exodus would create an even fiercer deficit for global dev-ops talent.

These U.S.-trained foreign tech workers are the main drivers of foreign tech start-ups.

Dangling carrots and sticks for a chance to start an embryonic project in the cozy confines of home is hard to pass up.

Ironically enough, there are more A.I. computer scientists of Chinese origin in America than there are in all of China.

There is a huge movement by the Chinese private sector to bring everyone back home as China vies to become the industry leader in A.I.

Silicon Valley is on the verge of a brain drain of mythical proportions.

If America allows all these brilliant minds to fly home, not only to China but everywhere else, America is just training these workers to compete against American workers.

A premier example is Baidu co-founder Robin Li who received his master's degree in computer science from the State University of New York at Buffalo in 1994.

After graduation, his first job was at Dow Jones & Company, a subsidiary of News Corp., writing code for the online version of the Wall Street Journal.

During this stint, he developed an algorithm for ranking search results that he patented, flew back to China, created the Google search engine equivalent, and named it Baidu (BIDU).

Robin Li is now one of the richest people in China with a fortune of close to $20 billion.

To show it's not just a one-hit-wonder type scenario, three of the top five start-ups are currently headquartered in Beijing and not in California.

The most powerful industry in America's economy is just a transient training hub for foreign nationals before they go home to make the real moola.

More than 70% of tech employees in Silicon Valley and more than 50% in the San Francisco Bay Area are foreign, according to the 2016 census data.

Adding insult to injury, the exorbitant cost of housing is preventing burgeoning American talent from migrating from rural towns across America and moving to the Bay Area.

They make it as far West as Salt Lake City, Reno, or Las Vegas.

Instead of living a homeless life in Golden Gate Park, they decide to set up shop in a second-tier American city after horror stories of Bay Area housing starts populate their friends' Instagram feeds and are shared a million times over.

This trend was reinforced by domestic migration statistics.

Between 2007 and 2016, 5 million people moved to California, and 6 million people moved out of the state.

The biggest takeaways are that many of these new California migrants are from New York, possess graduate degrees, and command an annual salary of more than $110,000.

Conversely, Nevada, Arizona, and Texas have major inflows of migrants that mostly earn less than $50,000 per year and are less educated.

That will change in the near future.

Ultimately, if VCs think it is expensive now to operate a start-up in Silicon Valley, it will be costlier in the future.

Pouring gasoline on the flames, Northern California schools are starting to fold like a house of cards due to minimal household formation wiping out student numbers.

The dire shortage of affordable housing is the region's No. 1 problem.

A 1,066-sq.-ft. property in San Jose's Willow Glen neighborhood went on sale for $800,000.

This would be considered an absolute steal at this price, but the catch is the house was badly burned two years ago. This is the price for a teardown.

When you combine the housing crisis with the price readjustment for big data, it looks as if Silicon Valley has peaked or at the very least it's not cheap.

Yes, the FANGs will continue their gravy train, but the next big thing to hit tech will not originate from California.

VCs will overwhelmingly invest in data over rental bills. The percolation of tech ingenuity will likely pop up in either Nevada, Arizona, Texas, Utah, or yes, even Michigan.

Even though these states attract poorer migrants, the lower cost of housing is beginning to attract tech professionals who can afford more than a burned down shack.

Washington state has become a hotbed for bitcoin activity. Small rural counties set in the Columbia Basin such as Chelan, Douglas, and Grant used to be farmland.

The bitcoin industry moved three hours east of Seattle for one reason and one reason only - cost.

Electricity is five times cheaper there because of fluid access to plentiful hydro-electric power.

Many business decisions come down to cost, and a fractional advantage of pennies.

Globalization has supercharged competition, and technology is the lubricant fueling competition to new heights.

Once millennials desire to form families, the only choices are regions where housing costs are affordable and areas that aren't bereft of tech talent.

Cities such as Las Vegas and Reno in Nevada; Austin, Texas; Phoenix, Arizona; and Salt Lake City, Utah, will turn into hotbeds of West Coast growth engines just as Hangzhou, China-based Alibaba (BABA) turned that city into more than a sleepy backwater town with a big lake at its center.

The overarching theme of decentralizing is taking the world by storm. The built-up power levers in Northern California are overheated, and the decentralization process will take many years to flow into the direction of these smaller but growing cities.

Salt Lake City, known as Silicon Slopes, has been a tech magnet of late with big players such as Adobe (ADBE), Twitter (TWTR), and EA Sports (EA) opening new branches there while Reno has become a massive hotspot for data server farms. Nearby Sparks hosts Tesla's Gigafactory 1 along with massive data centers for Apple, Alphabet, and Switch.

The half a billion-dollars required to build a proper tech company will stretch further in Austin or Las Vegas, and most of the funds will be reserved for tech talent - not slum landlords.

The nail in the coffin will be the millions saved in state taxes.

The rise of the second-tier cities is the key to staying ahead of the race for tech supremacy.

 

 

 

_________________________________________________________________________________________________

Quote of the Day

"Twitter is about moving words. Square is about moving money," - said CEO of Twitter, Jack Dorsey, to The New Yorker, October 2013.

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MHFTR

July 3, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
July 3, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(HERE'S AN EASY WAY TO PLAY ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE),

(BOTZ), (NVDA), (ISRG)

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MHFTR

Here's an Easy Way to Play Artificial Intelligence

Tech Letter

Suppose there was an exchange traded fund that focused on the single most important technology trend in the world today.

You might think that I was smoking California's largest export (it's not grapes). But such a fund DOES exist.

The Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence Thematic ETF (BOTZ) drops a golden opportunity into investors' laps as a way to capture part of the growing movement behind automation.

The fund currently has an impressive $2.28 billion in assets under management.

The universal trend of preferring automation over human labor is spreading with each passing day.

Suffice to say there is the unfortunate emotional element of sacking a human and the negative knock-on effect to the local community like in Detroit, Michigan.

But simply put, robots do a better job, don't complain, don't fall ill, don't join unions, or don't ask for pay raises. It's all very much a capitalist's dream come true.

Instead of dallying around in single stock symbols, now is the time to seize the moment and take advantage of the single seminal trend of our lifetime.

No, it's not online dating, gambling, or bitcoin, it's Artificial Intelligence (A.I.).

Selecting individual stocks that are purely exposed to A.I. is a challenging endeavor. Companies need a way to generate returns to shareholders first and foremost, hence, most pure A.I. plays do not exist right now.

However, the Mad Hedge Fund Trader has found the most unadulterated A.I. play out there.

A real diamond in the rough.

The best way to expose yourself to this A.I. trend is through Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence Thematic ETF (BOTZ).

This ETF tracks the price and yield performance of 10 crucial companies that sit on the forefront of the A.I. and robotic development curve. It invests at least 80% of its total assets in the securities of the underlying index. The expense ratio is only 0.68%.

Another caveat is that the underlying companies are only derived from developed countries. Out of the 10 disclosed largest holdings, seven are from Japan, two are from Silicon Valley, and one, ABB Group, is a Swedish-Swiss multinational headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland.

Robotics and A.I. walk hand in hand, and robotics are entirely dependent on the germination prospects of A.I.

Without A.I., robots are just a clunk of heavy metal.

Robots require a high level of A.I. to meld seamlessly into our workforce.

The stronger the A.I. functions, the stronger the robot's ability, filtering down to the bottom line.

A.I. embedded robots are especially prevalent in military, car manufacturing, and heavy machinery.

The industrial robot industry projects to reach $80 billion per year in sales by 2024 as more of the workforce gradually becomes automated.

The robotic industry has become so prominent in the automotive industry that it constitutes greater than 50% of robot investments in America.

Let's get the ball rolling and familiarize readers of the Mad Hedge Technology Letter with the top 5 weightings in the underlying ETF (BOTZ).

Nvidia (NVDA)

Nvidia Corporation is a company I often write about as its main business is producing GPU chips for the video game industry.

This Santa Clara, California-based company is spearheading the next wave of A.I. advancement by focusing on autonomous vehicle technology and A.I. integrated cloud data centers as its next cash cow.

All these new groundbreaking technologies require ample amounts of GPU chips. Consumers will eventually cohabitate with state-of-the-art IoT products (Internet of Things), fueled by GPU chips coming to mass market like the Apple HomePod.

The company is led by genius Jensen Huang, a Taiwan-born American, who cut his teeth as a microprocessor designer at competitor Advanced Micro Devices (AMD).

Nvidia constitutes a hefty 9.43% of the BOTZ ETF.

To visit the website please click here.

Yaskawa Electric (Japan)

Yaskawa Electric is the world's largest manufacturer of AC inverter drives, servo and motion control, and robotics automation systems, headquartered in Kitakyushu, Japan.

It is a company I know well, having covered this former zaibatsu company as a budding young analyst in Japan 45 years ago.

Yaskawa has fully committed to improve global productivity through automation. It comprises 5.79% of BOTZ.

To visit Yaskawa's website, please click here.

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)

Intuitive Surgical Inc. (ISRG) trades on Nasdaq and is located in sun-drenched Sunnyvale, California.

This local firm designs, manufactures, and markets surgical systems and is industriously focused on the medical industry.

This is truly a needle-in-the-haystack type of company and is not well known outside of the corridors of Silicon Valley.

The company's da Vinci Surgical System converts surgeon's hand movements into corresponding micro-movements of instruments positioned inside the patient.

The products include surgeon's consoles, patient-side carts, 3-D vision systems, da Vinci skills simulators, and da Vinci Xi integrated table motions.

This company comprises 9.55% of BOTZ and has one of the best charts out there in the tech sector.

To visit its website, please click here.

Fanuc Corp. (Japan)

Fanuc was another one of the hit robotics companies I used to trade in during the 1970s, and I have visited its main factory many times.

Thus, it's not a shocker to find out that Fanuc Corp. is the fourth-largest portion in the (BOTZ) ETF at 6.87%.

This company provides automation products and computer numerical control systems, headquartered in Oshino, Yamanashi.

It once was a subsidiary of Fujitsu, which focused on the field of numerical control. The bulk of its business is done with American and Japanese automakers and electronics manufacturers.

It has snapped up 65% of the worldwide market in the computer numerical control device market (CNC). Fanuc has branch offices in 46 different countries.

To visit the company website, please click here.

Keyence Corp. (Japan)

Keyence Corp. is the leading supplier of automation sensors, vision systems, barcode readers, laser markers, measuring instruments, and digital microscopes.

It offers a full array of service support and closely works with customers to guarantee full functionality and operation of the equipment. Its technical staff and sales teams add value to the company by cooperating with its buyers.

The company consistently has been ranked as one of the top 10 best companies in Japan and boasts an eye-opening 50% operating margin.

It is headquartered in Osaka, Japan, and makes up 7.70% of the BOTZ ETF.

To visit its website please click here.

(BOTZ) does has some pros and cons. The best A.I. plays are either still private at the venture capital level or have already been taken over by giant firms such as NVIDIA.

You also need to have a pretty broad definition of A.I. to bring together enough companies to make up a decent ETF.

However, it does get you a cheap entry into many of the illiquid, premium foreign names in this fund.

Automation is one of the reasons why this is turning into the deflationary century. I recommend that all readers who don't own their own robotic infused business to pick up some Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence Thematic ETF (BOTZ).

The macro headwinds have beaten down this sector in 2018, and shares are currently oversold.

Cautiously scaling in at this point would be perfect for the long-term buy and hold investor.

Audacious traders should take a look at Intuitive Surgical and buy any dip that offers entry points near the 100-day moving average.

This support level has acted as ironclad support, as the price action elevates to the sky.

To learn more about (BOTZ) please visit the website by clicking here.

 

 

 

 

 

_________________________________________________________________________________________________

Quote of the Day

"I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people," - said English mathematician, astronomer, theologian, author and physicist Sir Isaac Newton.

 

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MHFTR

July 2, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
July 2, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THE CLOUD FOR DUMMIES)
(AMZN), (MSFT), (GOOGL), (AAPL), (CRM), (ZS)

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MHFTR

The Cloud for Dummies

Tech Letter

If you've been living under a rock the past few years, the cloud phenomenon hasn't passed you by and you still have time to cash in.

You want to hitch your wagon to cloud-based investments in any way, shape or form.

Microsoft's (MSFT) pivot to its Azure enterprise business has sent its stock skyward, and it is poised to rake in more than $100 billion in cloud revenue over the next 10 years.

Microsoft's share of the cloud market rose from 10% to 13% and is catching up to Amazon Web Services (AWS).

Amazon leads the cloud industry it created, and the 49% growth in cloud sales from the 42% in Q3 2017 is a welcome sign that Amazon is not tripping up.

It still maintains more than 30% of the cloud market. Microsoft would need to gain a lot of ground to even come close to this jewel of a business.

Amazon (AMZN) relies on AWS to underpin the rest of its businesses and that is why AWS contributes 73% to Amazon's total operating income.

Total revenue for just the AWS division is an annual $5.5 billion business and would operate as a healthy stand-alone tech company if need be.

Cloud revenue is even starting to account for a noticeable share of Apple's (AAPL) earnings, which has previously bet the ranch on hardware products.

The future is about the cloud.

These days, the average investor probably hears about the cloud a dozen times a day. If you work in Silicon Valley you can triple that figure.

So, before we get deep into the weeds with this letter on cloud services, cloud fundamentals, cloud plays, and cloud Trade Alerts, let's get into the basics of what the cloud actually is.

Think of this as a cloud primer.

It's important to understand the cloud, both its strengths and limitations. Giant companies that have it figured out, such as Salesforce (CRM) and Zscaler (ZS), are some of the fastest growing companies in the world.

Understand the cloud and you will readily identify its bottlenecks and bulges that can lead to extreme investment opportunities. And that's where I come in.

Cloud storage refers to the online space where you can store data. It resides across multiple remote servers housed inside massive data centers all over the country, some as large as football fields, often in rural areas where land, labor, and electricity are cheap.

They are built using virtualization technology, which means that storage space spans across many different servers and multiple locations. If this sounds crazy remember that the original Department of Defense packet switching design was intended to make the system atomic bomb proof.

As a user you can access any single server at any one time anywhere in the world. These servers are owned, maintained and operated by giant third-party companies such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet (GOOGL), which may or may not charge a fee for using them.

The most important features of cloud storage are:

1) It is a service provided by an external provider.

2) All data is stored outside your computer residing inside an in-house network.

3) A simple Internet connection will allow you to access your data at anytime from anywhere.

4) Because of all these features, sharing data with others is vastly easier, and you can even work with multiple people online at the same time, making it the perfect, collaborative vehicle for our globalized world.

Once you start using the cloud to store a company's data, the benefits are many.

  1. No Maintenance

Many companies, regardless of their size, prefer to store data inside in-house servers and data centers.

However, these require constant 24-hour-a-day maintenance, so the company has to employ a large in-house IT staff to manage them - a costly proposition.

Thanks to cloud storage, businesses can save costs on maintenance since their servers are now the headache of third-party providers.

Instead, they can focus resources on the core aspects of their business where they can add the most value, without worrying about managing IT staff of prima donnas.

  1. Greater Flexibility

Today's employees want to have a better work/life balance and this goal can be best achieved through letting them telecommute. Increasingly, workers are bending their jobs to fit their lifestyles, and that is certainly the case here at Mad Hedge Fund Trader.

How else can I send off a Trade Alert while hanging from the face of a Swiss Alp?

Cloud storage services, such as Google Drive, offer exactly this kind of flexibility for employees. According to a recent survey, 79% of respondents already work outside of their office some of the time, while another 60% would switch jobs if offered this flexibility.

With data stored online, it's easy for employees to log into a cloud portal, work on the data they need to, and then log off when they're done. This way a single project can be worked on by a global team, the work handed off from time zone to time zone until it's done.

It also makes them work more efficiently, saving money for penny-pinching entrepreneurs.

  1. Better Collaboration and Communication

In today's business environment, it's common practice for employees to collaborate and communicate with co-workers located around the world.

For example, they may have to work on the same client proposal together or provide feedback on training documents. Cloud-based tools from DocuSign, Dropbox, and Google Drive make collaboration and document management a piece of cake.

These products, which all offer free entry-level versions, allow users to access the latest versions of any document, so they can stay on top of real-time changes, which can help businesses to better manage work flow, regardless of geographical location.

  1. Data Protection

Another important reason to move to the cloud is for better protection of your data, especially in the event of a natural disaster. Hurricane Sandy wreaked havoc on local data centers in New York City, forcing many websites to shut down their operations for days.

The cloud simply routes traffic around problem areas as if, yes, they have just been destroyed by a nuclear attack.

It's best to move data to the cloud, to avoid such disruptions because there your data will be stored in multiple locations.

This redundancy makes it so that even if one area is affected, your operations don't have to capitulate, and data remains accessible no matter what happens. It's a system called deduplication.

  1. Lower Overhead

The cloud can save businesses a lot of money.

By outsourcing data storage to cloud providers, businesses save on capital and maintenance costs, money that in turn can be used to expand the business. Setting up an in-house data center requires tens of thousands of dollars in investment, and that's not to mention the maintenance costs it carries.

Plus, considering the security, reduced lag, up-time and controlled environments that providers such as Amazon's AWS have, creating an in-house data center seems about as contemporary as a buggy whip, a corset, or a Model T.

 

 

 

 

_________________________________________________________________________________________________

Quote of the Day

"Life is not fair; get used to it," said founder of Microsoft Bill Gates.

 

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MHFTR

June 29, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
June 29, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(IS AIRBNB YOUR NEXT TEN BAGGER?)

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MHFTR

Is Airbnb Your Next Ten Bagger?

Tech Letter

I was not surprised to hear that the home sharing app, Airbnb, was given a $31 billion valuation in the latest venture capital funding round.

The big question for you and I is: Will the valuation soar tenfold to $300 billion, and how much of a piece of that will you and I be allowed to get?

To answer that question I spent six weeks traveling around Europe as an Airbnb customer. This enabled me to understand its business model, its strengths and weaknesses, and analyze its long-term potential.

As a customer the value you receive is nothing less than amazing.

I have been a five-star hotel client for most of my life, with someone else picking up the tab much of the time, so I have a pretty good idea on the true value of accommodations.

What you get from Airbnb is nothing less than spectacular. You get three or four times the space for one-third the price. That's a disruption factor of 7:1.

The standards are often five-star and at the top end, depending on how much you spend. I found I could often get an entire three-bedroom house for the price of a single hotel room, with a better location.

Or, I could get an excellent abode in rural settings, where none other was to be had, whatsoever.

That's a big deal for someone like me who spends so much of the year on the road.

You also get a new best friend in every city you visit.

On most occasions the host greeted me on the doorsteps with the keys, and then introduced me to the mysteries of European kitchen appliances, heating, and air-conditioning.

Pre-stocking the refrigerator with fresh milk, coffee, tea, and jam seems to be a tradition the hosts pick up in their Airbnb orientation course.

One in Waterford, Ireland, even left me a bottle of wine, plenty of beer, and a frozen pizza. She read my mind. Thanks, Mary!

She then took me on a one-hour tour of their city, divulging secrets about their favorite restaurants, city sights, and nightspots. Every one proved golden.

After you check out, Airbnb asks you to review the accommodation. These can be incredibly valuable in deciding your next pick.

I had one near miss with what I thought was a great deal in London, until I read, "The entire place reeks of Indian cooking."

Similarly, the hosts rate you as a guest.

One hostess shared a story about picking up her clients from town after they got drunk and lost in the middle of the night. Then they threw up in the back of the car on the way home.

Guests forgetting to return keys are another common complaint.

Needless to say, I received top ratings from my hosts, as fixing their Wi-Fi to boost performance became a regular habit of mine.

After my initial fabulous experience in London, I thought it might be a one-off, limited to only the largest cities. So, I started researching accommodations for my upcoming trips.

I couldn't have been more wrong.

Just the Kona Coast alone on the big island of Hawaii had an incredible 50 offerings, including several bargain beachfront properties.

The center of Tokyo had more than 300 listings. The historic district in Florence, Italy, had a mind-blowing 351 properties.

Fancy a retreat on the island of Bali in Indonesia and tune up your surfing? There are more than 197 places to stay!

While we weren't looking, Airbnb has truly gone global.

Airbnb's business model is almost too simple to be true, involving no more than a couple of popular applications. Call it an artful melding of Google Earth, email, text, and PayPal.

While no one was looking, it became the world's largest hotel at a tiny fraction of the capital cost.

The company has 2 million hosts worldwide, and 100 million customers. That supply/demand imbalance shifts burden of the cost to the renters, who usually have to fork out a 12% fee, plus the cost of the cleaning service.

Hosts only pay 3% to process the credit card fees for the payment.

The tidal wave of revenues this has created has enabled Airbnb to become San Francisco's second largest privately owned "unicorn," right after the $70 billion behemoth ridesharing app, Uber.

To say that Airbnb has created controversy would be a huge understatement.

For a start, it has emerged as a major challenge to the hotel industry, which is still stuck with a 20th century business model. There's no way hotels can compete on price.

One Airbnb "super host" in Manhattan is managing 200 apartments, essentially, creating out of scratch, a medium-sized virtual "hotel."

Taxes are another matter.

Some municipalities require hosts to pay levies of up to 20%, while others demand quarterly tax filings and withholding taxes. That is, if tax collectors can find them.

Airbnb may be the largest new source of tax evasion today.

In cities where housing is in short supply Airbnb is seen as crowding out local residents. After all, an owner can make far more money subletting their residence nightly than with a long-term lease.

Several owners told me that Airbnb covered their entire housing cost for the year, while paying off the mortgage at the same time.

Owners in the primest of areas, such as in midtown Manhattan off of Central Park or the old city center in Dubrovnik, Croatia, rent their homes out as much as 180 days a year.

It is doing nothing less than changing lives.

That has forced local governments to clamp down.

San Francisco has severe, ironclad planning and zoning restrictions that only allow 2,000 new residences a year to come on the market.

It is cracking down on Airbnb, as well as other home-sharing apps such as FlipKey, VRBO, and HomeAway by forcing hosts to register with the city or face brutal $1,000-a-day fines.

So far, only 1,675 out of 9,000 hosts have done so.

Ratting out your neighbor as an off-the-grid Airbnb member has become a new cottage industry in The City by the Bay.

Airbnb is fighting back with multiple lawsuits, citing the federal Communications Decency Act, the Stored Communications Act, and the First Amendment covering the freedom of speech.

It is a safe bet that a $31 billion company can spend more on legal fees than a city the size of San Francisco.

The company also has become the largest contributor in San Francisco's local elections. In 2015, it fought a successful campaign against Proposition "F," meant to place severe restrictions on its services.

An Airbnb stay over is not without its problems.

The burden of truth in advertising is on the host, not the company, and inaccurate listings are withdrawn only after complaints.

A 20-something-year-old guy's idea of cleanliness may be a little lower than your own.

Longtime users learn the unspoken "code."

"Cozy" can mean tiny, "as is" can be a dump, and "lively" can bring the drunken screaming of four-letter words all night long, especially if you are staying upstairs from a pub.

And that spectacular seaside view might come with relentlessly whining Vespa's on the highway out front. Always brings earplugs and blindfolds as backups.

Researching complaints, it seems that the worst of the abuses occur in shared accommodation. Learning new foreign cultures can be fascinating. But your new roommate may want to get to know you better than you want.

In one notorious incident a Madrid guest was raped. The best way to guard against such unpleasantries is to rent the entire residence for your use only, as I do.

Another problem arises when properties are rented out for illegal purposes, such as prostitution or drug dealing.

More than once, an unsuspecting resident woke up one morning to discover they were living next door to a new bordello.

Wild parties that trash the dwelling, annoy the neighbors, and bring in the police is another worry.

Of course, the million-dollar question is, "When will the company go public?"

The current "unicorn" philosophy is to milk the company for all it's worth, and take it public when it is about to go ex-growth.

That's what happened to Twitter (TWTR), which grew exponentially, and then saw shares dive a gut-churning 72% after its initial public offering. It has since recovered.

On seeing the massive crowds of new tourists packing Europe this summer, my conclusion is that the travel industry is entering a hypergrowth phase. Blame the emerging middle-class Chinese who seem to be everywhere.

That means that at whatever price Airbnb goes public, there may not be a ten-bagger left for you. But a two or three bagger may be possible.

The real shock came when I left Airbnb and stayed in a regular hotel. Include the fees and the cleaning charges, and the service is no longer competitive for a single night stay.

In any case, most hosts have two- or three-night minimums to minimize hassle.

When I checked in at a Basel, Switzerland, five-star hotel, all I got was a set of keys and a blank stare. No great restaurant tips, no local secrets, no new best friend.

I spent that night surfing Airbnb, planning my next adventure.

 

 

_________________________________________________________________________________________________

Quote of the Day

"There are just not enough human buyers in the market," lamented Edward Perkin, chief equity investment officer at Eaton Vance.

 

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MHFTR

June 28, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
June 28, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(WHY TECH IS REGULATION PROOF),

(UBER)

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