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MHFTR

June 6, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
June 6, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(SHOULD MICROSOFT BE A FANG?),
(MSFT), (AAPL), (AMZN), (MU), (GOOGL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-06-06 01:06:282018-06-06 01:06:28June 6, 2018
MHFTR

Should Microsoft Be a FANG?

Tech Letter

Microsoft's (MSFT) code grab of GitHub was another virtuoso bit of business by Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella.

Bill Gates' old stomping ground has been identified as a top 3 tech stock by the Mad Hedge Technology Letter since the early days of the letter.

A company with Amazon-esque growth and Apple-like profits is hard to beat.

There is little doubt that Microsoft will be leading the economy for the foreseeable future and its purchase of GitHub for $7.5 billion, a source code library and platform for developers to collaborate together, is testimony that Microsoft is developer friendly and raises its attractiveness level to the best developers on the market.

Universally, this underlines the strength of large-cap tech that keeps strengthening in an attempt to eclipse the competition.

Large-cap tech outperformance is one of the main overarching narratives in equity markets this year.

Investors have been handed more and more bullish evidence that has made Morgan Stanley's downgrade of Micron (MU) absurd.

The ultra-competitive environment tech industry is fighting tooth and nail to find the best technology talent around the world.

GitHub is the largest host of source code the world has ever seen and earns revenue by charging corporate customers who run projects on its platform.
This is definitely not a revenue grab as GitHub's marginal revenue is beside the point.

Upon the announcement, Microsoft shares traded higher confirming the stance of investors treating Microsoft as a super growth stock and not a legacy company of yore that focuses on extracting profits while keeping overhead low.

Growth is about spending and spending some more.

This San Francisco-based company plays host to 24 million developers and has become a critical platform for developers working on collaborative projects for Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Amazon developers around the world.

Microsoft is its biggest contributor and the purchase makes sense long term and short term.

GitHub has a de-facto monopoly of open source coding repositories. There is only one game in town for developers to collaborate on, boding well for Microsoft.

Not only will Microsoft have the biggest library of code in the world, but the monetization pathway of GitHub squarely falls on the shoulders of Microsoft Azure - Microsoft's sensational cloud business.

GitHub is just another tool that will be incorporated into its cloud and is part of the strategy to surpass Amazon as the No. 1 cloud provider.

Microsoft envisages developers and businessmen working in concert on Microsoft's cloud using its proprietary software and services that will happily feed through to the bottom line in a material way.

Look for Microsoft to keep adding premium selective parts to its software and services lineup.

As for individual developers, GitHub has been the platform to display their talents.

It is commonplace during interviews for developers to point out contributions to projects through GitHub, giving them an edge in the hiring process.

Any reputable developer should have repositories on GitHub chronicling their every move.

Every major tech company deeply respects the functionality of GitHub and what it brings to the industry.

This is not just a flash in the pan.

Crucially, the plethora of new data access about coders streaming into the Redmond, Washington, offices is a dream come true.

This will also allow Microsoft to identify and recruit the best of the best in an algorithmic method to the dismay of other tech companies.

Theoretically, the company could create an in-house ranking system of developers using the data and automate its HR department while topping it off with some artificial intelligence sauce.

There is certain to be untold, untapped talent hidden away in the layers of GitHub repositories. Once Microsoft combs through the nitty-gritty, surely a slew of contract offers will head the way for the dark horses roaming around GitHub.

In a sellers' market, the buyers find you and pay you more than the market price and not the other way around.

GitHub flirted with the possibility of going public before meeting with Nadella.

The meeting blew away GitHub leaving management impressed.

That smoothed the way for the decision to accept Nadella's offer of $7.5 billion paid in Microsoft stock.

The inflated price was a head turner.

Just three years ago, the last private round of valuation estimated GitHub at $2 billion in 2015.

Microsoft even floated the idea of buying GitHub for $5 billion in informal talks at one point.

Therefore, the $7.5 billion in stock paid to GitHub is considered a healthy premium to the market price.

Even with the inflated price, this move was a no-brainer.

The deal will see Microsoft's Vice President Nat Friedman take the reins at GitHub as CEO. He will be instructed by Nadella how to exactly realize the perfect fusion between Microsoft Azure and GitHub's code treasure trove.

Naturally, there is no guarantee all 28 million GitHub users will be coding on the Azure platform. However, if just a few million convert and adopt the Azure platform, then a GitHub purchase will seem like a massive bargain.

It's entirely possible that in the near-term future, Microsoft will be crowned as the best place in the world to work as a developer.

If this does not come to fruition, Microsoft will be in the ballpark of the top echelon.

The ability to recruit the best developers in the world is reinforced by its other big-name purchase of LinkedIn, a job networking site purchased for $26.2 billion in 2016.

LinkedIn and the data that came with it, is another salient tool helping Microsoft identify inefficiencies in the job market.

The historical progression of employees' careers is digitized, and trends can be manipulated from the data.

Microsoft will be able to understand more about the state of the job market than any other company in the world.

Ownership of the biggest coding platform, largest job networking site, and massive amounts of prized data resulting from these platforms are precious gems inside of Microsoft's portfolio.

All of these new functions will derive synergies from each other helping evolve Microsoft into a stronger company.

No doubt there will be GitHub links showing up in LinkedIn profiles.

The applications are unlimited.

In the future it might be difficult to entirely avoid the Microsoft ecosystem. The conscious decision to become even more developer friendly is poised to pay dividends in the quality of its tech staff.

Microsoft will have to extend an olive branch to the portion of developers who disagree with this purchase.

A small minority is skeptical.

The integrity of the platform will have the potential to be compromised favoring Microsoft's narrow interests.

Nadella will need to do some smoothing over with the maverick developers to get them on board with everybody else.

Even though some developers are worried the platform will be undermined, certainly the existing developers at Microsoft are jumping with joy about this development.

The GitHub buy will aid Microsoft developers to build more unique cloud products to sell as add-ons.

Venture capital company Andreessen Horowitz will be rewarded with a $1 billion pay packet from its $100 million investment into GitHub.

A cool 10-fold return.

These were the precise deals that Microsoft used to lose out to the vaunted FANGs.

It shows how far Microsoft has come in such a short amount of time.

Smartly, Nadella has used the cash pile to draw in businesses that have synergies with the existing Microsoft ecosystem.

GitHub is another example of round pegs fitting into round holes.

Microsoft is a darling of the Mad Hedge Technology Letter, and now that it has crossed the $100 threshold, this price level will act as ironclad support.

If the stock somehow gets caught up in macro-headwinds and drops to $95, consider it a gift from God.

 

 

 

_________________________________________________________________________________________________

Quote of the Day

"School districts in the U.S. don't adopt technology very quickly," - said co-founder and CEO of Netflix Reed Hastings.

 

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MHFTR

June 5, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
June 5, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THE DIGITAL NOMAD ISSUE)

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MHFTR

The Digital Nomad Issue

Tech Letter

People want a better life.

And the Internet has connected the outermost populations giving them a feed into the biggest transformation ever to grace mankind.

The applications of the Internet are countless and promise to deliver huge gains in productivity while lifting entire populations out of poverty.

The next leap of digital migration will see the remaining 3 billion of unconnected users connected offering new markets for our tech behemoths.

Every day that passes by, not only does the value of technology companies rise, but the level of expertise increases at a hyper-accelerated pace.

The Mad Hedge Technology Letter diligently chronicles the never-ending paradigm shifts in the industry.

Yes, indeed, it's a sellers' market for anything closely resembling tech.

Recent stories are legion.

The Long Island Iced Tea Corp. beverage company rebranded itself as Long Blockchain and saw shares shoot up 289% on the basis the company might "diversify."

The human capital fueling the outperforming tech sector is like the blood that pumps through the arteries.

Now, governments are getting in on the act, crafting policies that attempt to lure in top tech talent.

Digital nomads are frequently typecast as tech-savvy Millennials remotely working via an Internet connection while living as an expatriate.

However, they come in all shapes and sizes and that is the main point.

The Baltic nation of Estonia has been one of the leading lights in tech innovation, rolling out Skype before Facebook and Twitter existed.

Skype was entirely comprised of local Estonian developers who achieved this in the early 2000s.

Quite a feat for such a small nation.

This charming Baltic country is stepping up its game by announcing a new visa targeted at digital nomads.

In January 2019, Estonia will roll out a revolutionary visa allowing digital nomads to work in Estonia all year round. This visa also includes 90 days of travel in the Schengen Area of mainland Europe.

This visa isn't targeted at EU citizens who already reap the benefits of working all over the European Union.

Estonia is on a mission to amass as many tech-savvy workers from far-flung places around the world, incorporating them into Estonian life, and boosting the level of innovation in a country that prides itself as a start-up hub.

And more importantly jacking up the volume of tech workers.

These digital nomads create communities that harness an enormous flow of tech know-how. Usually their friends are fellow like-minded digital nomads that roll in packs with each other.

Tallinn, Estonia has rapidly turned into a top 10 digital stronghold attracting hordes of digital nomads.

If technical issues arise, help is usually just a shout across a coffee shop and presto!

Everything is fixed.

The message is that simple.

Estonia does not care where you are from, how many sugars you drink with your tea, or how you style your hair in the morning.

The concern there is if you know how to use a computer well or not. Plain and simple.

The global talent shortage is dire, and this is just the beginning.

Try hiring an experienced artificial intelligence engineer on the cheap, and headhunters will just hang up and delete your contact information. Better to think of 10 figures.

In fact, something must give because visa policies are entirely based on legacy systems of yore.

The world has moved on and visa policies should reflect it.

Expect more exotic visa policies pinpointed exactly toward the type of immigrants that nations want as part of their national policy.

With the advent of low-cost carriers such as airBaltic, Spirit Airlines, and Norwegian Air, taking a flight halfway across the world is only a $200 proposition thanks to wonders of deflation and competition.

And the further creation of private short-term rental app Airbnb has allowed digital nomads a pipeline of private housing to tap into when they jet set across the globe.

The common denominator that denotes a perfect location for a digital nomad is cost.

Locations such as Copenhagen and Monaco are places of cultural beauty but pricey for a digital nomad to operate from as the wallet turns lighter consumed by the additional marginal cost of housing and hooking up a decent Internet connection.

Estonia and the rest of the Baltic countries are affordable and boast great digital infrastructure.

After the collapse of the Iron Curtain, these post-Soviet republics stumbled.

Jaded by generations of relying on the Soviet infrastructure, adapting to independence meant building everything from scratch.

Without the Soviet infrastructure, which was all they knew, developing a thriving country out of the ashes of the Soviet implosion was agonizing.

These countries that hug the border of Russia bet the farm on creating a digital infrastructure and invested the little they had into enhancing connectivity.

It's no shocker the Baltic countries of today boast a faster average Internet connection than America today.

In general, antiquated government systems are mired in bureaucracy and operate rudimentary systems straight from the history books.

Many governments suffer from the short-termism of the highest leaders doing everything possible to improve narrow interests irrespective of the big picture and usually solely focused on reelection.

This problem is echoed in America with the government digital infrastructure 20 to 30 years behind.

It is only now that Washington is reaching out to Silicon Valley to upgrade its dinosaur systems of yore.

Estonia is also grappling with aging demographics as with many of the Western powers and must lure 440,000 people just to maintain the current population of 1.3 million people.

Many of these Baltic countries lose huge swaths of youth that migrate to higher wage countries in Western Europe.

Expectedly, they never come back unless just visiting relatives in effect crushing the local birth rate.

The brain drain has also spilled over to low-income countries in Central and Eastern Europe such as Moldova, Poland, and the Ukraine.

Young people want a better life standard and will move across the universe 10 times over to find it.

Many of these Baltic countries have lasting ethnic tensions - a holdover from Soviet times - because of the substantial leftover minority of Russian-speaking Russians dotted around the Baltics.

The digital nomad visa is seen as a strong pivot to the West, attempting to shake off the Soviet heritage and Russian people.

Baltic countries do not want to be the next land grab for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Creating a powerful tech industry would be a key victory for the pro-West government.

Ethnic Russians still make up about 20% to 30% of the Baltic countries' population and live in the face of locals who view them as unfortunate riffraff.

Sometimes, the progressive policies have backfired.

Latvian banks have been a recipient of a massive witch hunt.

Washington has accused Latvian banks of being a facade for laundering Russian capital.

These negative headlines indeed will exacerbate ethnic tension.

Placing an army of digital nomads along the Russian border effectively acts as a deterrent and real army.

Since the aggregated value of digital nomads grows by the day, businesses will have incentives to keep the nomads along the border innovating and profiting from the global digital migration that is taking place as I write this.

The Estonian government has been bold and in some ways is acting with a start-up mentality itself.

This young, audacious government looks to scale up as fast as possible. Visionary policy is seen as the solution to maneuvering around long-lasting problems.

These pro-growth tech policies could invigorate local youth causing them to stay at home rather than flee to greener pastures.

This lifeline might slow down the 60% of local Estonians who dream of moving to a place where they can live better.

Rebranding itself as the digital nomad epicenter is a risky move that most governments wouldn't dare to do.

It's easy to ignore the brain drain in the Baltics while I am living in the Bay Area.

Silicon Valley has been drawing in the cream of the crop for years.

Developers want to stay in California because of the high standard of living, which is even nicer on a developer's salary.

No doubt the Bay Area has poached its share of Baltic working professionals.

However, this Estonian policy starts with the low-hanging fruit as the biggest names in the industry will gravitate toward the oodles of venture capital and large pool of talent. Unfortunately, that place is not the Baltics.

You must learn how to crawl before you can walk. If this visa experiment takes off, it could be a game changer while nudging the Baltics closer into the West's orbit of influence and raising income levels.

A win-win situation.

As for John Thomas. I won't be taking a $200 flight to Estonia to work in a coffee shop.

I prefer Incline Village, Nevada, and Zermatt, Switzerland, as my favorite digital nomad hangouts.

If it's not broke, don't fix it.

See you there in the summer!

 

On My Way to Switzerland

 

Chiang Mai, Thailand - Another Digital Nomad Stronghold

_________________________________________________________________________________________________

Quote of the Day

"As tech leaders we have to admit that we are hugely disconnected with our nation. I don't like it but have to recognize this issue," - said current CEO of Uber Dara Khosrowshahi in 2016.

 

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MHFTR

June 4, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
June 4, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THE INNOVATOR'S DILEMMA),
(UBER), (WMT), (SNAP), (MSFT), (GOOGL), (AAPL), (GM), (IBM)

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MHFTR

The Innovator's Dilemma

Tech Letter

I must confess, innovation can't be taught.

You are innovative, or you aren't. Don't pretend otherwise.

Innovation drives companies to outperform.

The economic environment becomes more cutthroat by the day rendering complacent companies obsolete.

Top-quality innovation leading to outstanding entrepreneurship is a well-traversed theme transcending industries across the American economic landscape.

The reservoir of innovation in 2018 is primarily flowing from one narrow source - the tech sector.

This is the primary motive for many adjacent industries to incorporate tech expertise into existing and commonly ancient legacy systems.

Tech promises laggards a ride atop the gravy chain.

In many instances, these companies are grappling with existential threats from all directions.

The best example is Walmart (WMT), which effectively mutated into the next FANG with its majority stake in Indian e-commerce juggernaut Flipkart. This deal followed its purchase of Jet.com in 2016, which was its first foothold in the e-commerce world.

Traditional companies are becoming tech companies because of the ability to innovate all leads through the fingertips of talented coders.

When all roads lead to Rome, you will have to go through Rome.

The hunger for innovation has had major implications to the financial side of technology.

The story picks up from a recent report disclosing the 2017 remuneration of co-founder and CEO of Instagram competitor Snapchat (SNAP) Evan Spiegel.

The $637.8 million he received in 2017 was the third-highest annual compensation ever to be collected by a CEO.

Snapchat has tanked following its 2017 IPO and the main reason is Facebook is stealing its lunch and leaving Snap the crumbs on which to nibble.

Instagram, using a cunning strategy of cloning Snap's best features, single-handedly bludgeoned Snap's share price cutting it by half after the successfully launched IPO.

Snap has been an unequivocal sell on the rallies stock since the inception of the Mad Hedge Technology Letter and the disastrous redesign did no favors either.

My first risk off recommendation was Snapchat and at the time it was trading at $19. To revisit the story, please click here.

Microsoft (MSFT) is a great stock because it posts accelerated revenue and earnings, while Snapchat is a terrible company because it produces accelerated losses and lousy user growth.

A company almost 100 times smaller than Microsoft should not be struggling to grow.

It's a failure of epic proportions.

Small companies expand briskly because the law of numbers is leveraged in their favor and the tiniest bump of additional business has a larger effect on the bottom line.

As it stands, Snapchat lost $373 million in 2015, and followed that up with a disastrous $514 million loss in 2016, and a gigantic $3.45 billion loss in 2017.

Losses accelerated by 800% but annual revenue only doubled last year.

It was no shocker that the poor relative performance resulted in the sacking of 100 Snapchat developers.

Smart people would assume an annual salary of this magnitude (Spiegel's) would be the result of excellent performance.

Why else would a CEO get a lavish payout?

I'll explain.

The demand for tech knows no bounds.

In this environment, venture capitalists will pay up for brilliant ideas.

The problem is that brilliant ideas don't grow on trees.

The few cutting-edge ideas have stacks of money thrown at them.

In this sellers' market, founders can cherry-pick the best financing deal that will enrich them the quickest and empower them the most.

Multiple offers have become the norm just as with the Silicon Valley housing market.

The consequences are the premium for these brilliant ideas keeps rising and investors keep paying higher prices without a second thought.

Therefore, founders and CEOs are opting for the financial packages that offer them bulletproof voting shares, allowing the innovators to control operations to the very last detail.

The founders are responsible for leading innovation, and investors are offering glorious pay terms for this innovation because it can't be substituted. Low-quality tech has less of a premium because the technology can easily be rebranded and substituted.

Technology from the ground up is slowly being automated away leaving runaway valuations the norm.

Giving the keys to the Ferrari makes sense as tech companies formulate long-term strategies based on scale. And securing job security without the threat of an activist takeover offers peace of mind for CEOs who are focused on the daily grind.

Knowing their baby won't get stolen from the carriage goes a long way in tech land.

Venture capitalists are reticent about following through with proper governance because they do not want to alienate the innovators who could choose to stop innovating.

These investors also know that tech is the least regulated industry in the world, so it's better to turn a blind eye to cunning growth strategies that push the border of regulation.

The competition to fund these emerging tech companies is borderline criminal.

Uber declined a $3 billion investment by no other than the Oracle of Omaha Warren Buffett.

Buffett described himself as a "great admirer" of Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi.

Uber is one of the most unlikely Warren Buffett investments because it doesn't create anything and burns cash faster than a Kardashian.

Buffett's faith in Uber underscores the reliance on tech to fuel the stock market to new heights.

Buffett also admitted mistakes on missing out on Alphabet (GOOGL) and Apple (AAPL).

Rightly so.

Then add in the mix of SoftBank's $100 billion vision fund that just announced an upcoming sequel with another $100 billion vision fund.

Where is all this money flowing into?

Of the tech companies that went through an IPO last year backed by venture capitalist money, 67% relinquished superior voting rights to key founders, a rise of 54% since 2010.

Compare that to non-tech companies that only allow 10% to 15% of CEOs to institute a voting structure that will put them in charge indefinitely.

In many instances, the persona of these ultra-famous tech CEOs has taken on a life of its own.

Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, is the most prominent example of a celebrity tech innovator milking every possible penny from his shareholders and is not shy about flaunting it.

News has it that Musk needs to go back to the well for another stage of financing later this year.

Don't worry, the money will be there in this climate.

Buffett's rejection was due to losing out to SoftBank, which beat out Buffett to invest in Uber.

SoftBank just announced a $3.35 billion investment into GM's (GM) autonomous driving unit called Cruise enhancing the best big data portfolio in the world.

At this pace, CEO of SoftBank Masayoshi Son will have a piece of every major big data company in the world.

This all bodes well for tech equities as the insatiable hunt for emerging, innovative tech spills over into daily equity market driving up the prices for all the top innovating public companies such as Salesforce, Amazon, Microsoft and Netflix.

Buffett, down on his luck after being shafted by Uber, picked up more Apple shares.

He sold all his IBM (IBM) shares after reading the Mad Hedge Technology Letter advising him to stay away from legacy companies.

Smart move, Warren. You can pick up the tab for our next lunch date.

If you have a few billion to throw around, expect multiple offers over the asking price for any high-grade tech innovation.

The going rate is shooting through the roof and you might NEVER be able to sack the founder.

Caveat emptor.

 

 

_________________________________________________________________________________________________

Quote of the Day

"We knew that Lyft was going to raise a ton of money. And we went (to their investors): 'Just so you know, we're going to be fund-raising after this, so before you decide whether you want to invest in them, just make sure you know that we are going to be fund-raising immediately after.' " - said former CEO and founder of Uber Travis Kalanick when asked how he copes with competition.

 

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MHFTR

June 1, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
June 1, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THE TECHNOLOGY NIGHTMARE COMING TO YOUR CITY)

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MHFTR

The Technology Nightmare Coming to Your City

Tech Letter

I tell people at my strategy luncheons that living in the San Francisco Bay area is like living in the future.

There is an explosion of high tech innovation going on here, and we locals often find ourselves the guinea pigs for the latest hot products.

However, sometimes the future is not such a great place to be.

I learned this the other day when I received a parking ticket in the mail. I didn't recall finding a notice of violation tucked under my windshield wiper in the recent past, so I looked into it.

To my chagrin, I learned that the city is now outfitting its buses with video cameras pointing forward and sideways.

The digital recordings are then transmitted to parking control officers sitting behind computer screens for review. They issue tickets, which are mailed to the registered owners of the vehicles.

San Francisco suffers from one of the worst parking nightmares in the country. The streets were never planned - they just sort of happened on their own during the frenzy of the 1849 gold rush.

They were built to handle the traffic of horses and carriages, and later cable cars, not the crush of traffic we get today.

Sky-high real estate prices have driven millions into the suburbs across the bridges over which they must commute. So, parking has always been in short supply and it is very expensive. When I drive into the city for a Saturday night dinner, sometimes the parking tab is more expensive than the meal.

Newly minted millionaires from tech IPOs are now buying vintage Victorian homes, and then retrofitting garages underneath them. Every time this is done, it eliminates another parking spot on the street to make room for the driveway.

So, while the traffic is increasing, the number of parking spots is actually declining.

The city originally installed the cameras to catch offenders driving in bus lanes during rush hour. When they discovered that the cameras also captured the license plates of illegally parked cars they expanded the program. Last year 3,000 such tickets were issued.

The program has been so successful that the cash-strapped city will greatly expand it this year. And with a great San Francisco track record to point to, the firm selling the system is planning on going nationwide. Soon it will come to a city near you.

Like I said, sometimes the future is not such a great place to be.

 

Parking in San Francisco Can be Tight

_________________________________________________________________________________________________

Quote of the Day

"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty," said the late British Prime Minister, Winston Churchill.


https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Car-Parking-image.jpg 303 400 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-06-01 01:05:192018-06-01 01:05:19The Technology Nightmare Coming to Your City
MHFTR

May 31, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
May 31, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(HOW SALESFORCE RAN OVER ORACLE),
(CRM), (ORCL), (MU), (RHT), (MSFT), (INTC), (AMZN), (GOOGL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-05-31 01:06:022018-05-31 01:06:02May 31, 2018
MHFTR

How Salesforce Ran Over Oracle

Tech Letter

Modern tech has an unseen dark side to it.

Coders relish the opaqueness surrounding the industry infatuated with developing the next big thing to take Silicon Valley by storm.

There is nothing opaque about the Mad Hedge Technology Letter.

I grind out recommendations and you follow them. Period. End of story.

To put it mildly, the letter has gotten off to a flying start since its inception in February 2018, and there is no looking back, only looking forward.

Micron (MU), Red Hat (RHT), Microsoft (MSFT), and Intel (INTC), just to name a few, have been solid recommendations standing up to all the nonsense and mayhem permeating throughout the periodically irrational markets.

Have you noticed lately when you open up the morning paper while sipping on a steaming mug of Blue Bottle Coffee, that almost every story is about technology?

It's not a mistake. I swear.

Technology is permeating into the nooks and crannies of our society and the leaders of this movement are laughing all the way to the bank.

One of those aforementioned pioneers is no other than local lad, Salesforce CEO and perennial Facebook basher Marc Benioff.

I recommended Salesforce at $110 and it was one of the first positions in the Mad Hedge Technology portfolio.

You can't blame me.

I saw this stock pick from a million miles away and I will explain why.

Salesforce set ambitious targets that nobody thought were realistic at the time.

How high in the sky does Benioff want to build his castles?

By 2022, Marc Benioff set out sales targets of a colossal $20 billion per year.

Then Benioff gushed that Salesforce would pass the $40 billion mark, done and dusted by 2028 and $60 billion by 2034.

Remember that tech CEOs are incentivized to forecast ludicrous sales targets because it lures in the unknowledgeable investor.

Unknowledgeable or pure genius, it does not matter, Salesforce is an emphatic buy.

Salesforce is the ultimate growth stock.

In 2016, annual revenue came in at $6.67 billion, which is about the same size as a middle level semiconductor company.

They followed that up with $8.38 billion in 2017, demonstrating the parabolic shaped trajectory of the company.

At the end of fiscal year 2017, Salesforce announced that it expects revenue of around $12.60 billion in 2019.

The latest earnings report, Benioff disclosed full year guidance of $13.13 billion.

This puts Salesforce in the running to achieve its lofty aspirations.

Apparently, the castles Benioff is building aren't in the sky after all.

Theoretically, if Benioff expands the business into a $16 billion to $16.5 billion business by 2019, Salesforce will have a more than likely chance to pass the $20 billion mark by the end of 2020, a full two years than initially thought.

Salesforce will have ample wiggle room on the way to $20 billion if it is 2022 for which it aims.

Why am I rambling on about revenue?

It's the only metric that Salesforce investors value.

The company registered two straight years of less than $200 million in profits then followed it up with a less than stellar 2016 where it lost almost $50 million.

Don't expect any dividends from this neck of the woods anytime soon especially after acquiring MuleSoft, an integration software company, for $6.5 billion last quarter.

This purchase will add another $315 million of annual revenue to Salesforce's quest of eclipsing its future sales targets. This was after MuleSoft made $296.5 million in 2017 before it became a part of Marc Benioff's stable.

Benioff has proved a shrewd dealmaker, taking advantage of cheap capital to add suitable parts to his business.

Since 2016, Benioff has snapped more than 50 niche software companies that he rebrands as Salesforce products and sells them as add-on products.

This is further evidence that any funds available will be allocated toward reinvestment into products and services deeming any future dividend inconceivable, especially with the elevated revenue targets to surpass.

As for the business. Do we still need to talk about it?

Rip-roaring growth was seen across the board with total revenue increasing 25%.

Investors should stay away from any cloud company that is growing less than 20%.

Market intelligence firm International Data Corporation (IDC) voted Salesforce as the No. 1 client relationship management (CRM) platform for the fifth consecutive year.

It is the industry leader in sales, marketing, service, and increased market share in 2017, more than its closest competitors.

Larry Ellison must be tearing his hair out as Oracle's (ORCL) share price has been excommunicated to purgatory indefinitely.

Oracle is a company that I have been pounding on the tables to stay away from.

The Mad Hedge Technology Letter seldom recommends legacy companies that are still legacy companies.

Driving past his former estate, emanating from a sparkling perch in Incline Village overlooking Lake Tahoe, my neighbor gives me the goose bumps.

The property was later sold for $20.35 million. All told, Larry has around $100 million invested in real estate dotted around Incline Village. I sarcastically mentioned to him last time we bumped into each other to call me immediately when his $90 million estate in Kyoto, Japan, hits the market.

Oracle's position in the pecking order is a telltale sign of the inability to land the creme de la creme government contracts that ostensibly fall into Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Microsoft's lap.

And it's not surprising that Larry is spending more time tending to his vast array of glittering luxury properties around the world rather than running Oracle.

Oracle is like a deer caught in the headlights and Marc Benioff is at the wheel.

On the Forbes 500 rankings, Salesforce has moved up almost 200 spots.

This position will rise as Salesforce is under contract booking a further $20.4 billion of commitments driven by its subscription services offering cloud products.

On the domestic contract front, it was much of the same for Salesforce, which inked premium deals with the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Kering, and sports apparel giant Adidas.

International companies such as Philips and Santander UK are expanding their relationships with Salesforce. A firm nod of approval.

Salesforce has been voted in the top three of most innovative companies for the past eight years by reputable Forbes magazine. The list was started in 2011, and it has never dropped out of the top three.

The gobs of innovation are the main logic behind the top five financial institutions expanding their relationship with Salesforce by an extra 70%.

Once companies start using the CRM platform, they become mesmerized with the premium add-ons that help companies run more efficiently.

Benioff has been a huge proponent of artificial intelligence (A.I.) and is an outsized catalyst to product enhancement gains.

Salesforce has taken Einstein, it's A.I. platform, and allowed all the applications to run through it.

The integration of Einstein has resulted in more than 2 billion correct predictions per day paying homage to the quality of A.I. engineering on display.

Instead of hiring a whole team of in-house data scientists, Salesforce is A.I. functionality by the bucket full and it is easy to use on its platform.

In some cases, incorporating Salesforce's A.I. into the business has bolstered other companies' top line by 15%.

Often, Salesforce's A.I. tools are declarative meaning the technology can identify solutions without a fixed formula.

Benioff has choreographed his strategy perfectly.

He is betting the ranch on unlocking data from legacy companies that migrate to his platform.

MuleSoft will help in this process of extracting value, then A.I. will supercharge the data, which is being unlocked.

What does this mean for Salesforce?

Higher revenue and more clients leading to accelerated growth. The share price has powered on north of $130, and after I recommended it at $110, I am convinced this stock will surge higher.

Salesforce is an absolute no-brainer buy on the dip.

 

 

 

Growth Means Shiny New Office Buildings

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Quote of the Day

"If we become leaders in Artificial Intelligence, we will share this know-how with the entire world, the same way we share our nuclear technologies today." - said current President of Russia, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Consisten-organic-growth-image-2-e1527711389771.jpg 247 500 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-05-31 01:05:522018-05-31 01:05:52How Salesforce Ran Over Oracle
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