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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Tech Lender

Tech Letter

SoFi Technologies stock exploded higher earlier this week after the financial technology company posted its first quarterly profit.

That’s a mighty feat for a small tech firm - they usually burn through cash fast and cry for help from lenders.

The stock was up over 20% and that moment is another reminder about the absolute ferocity of the January move in short-term tech.

Few big tech stocks have posted positive earnings, and sure, there have been modest selloffs only for the broader tech market to rocket higher.

Each pullback has been met by a rip-your-face-off bullish reversal move.  

Try to short tech at your peril.

What does that mean for Sofi?

SOFI retraced its bullishness by 10% and is trading back in the $8 range.

Heightened volatility is a hallmark of small tech stocks like Sofi and the firm won’t be able to shake this label until they grow larger and display stable earnings.

They posted fourth-quarter earnings of 2 cents a share, and in the year-ago quarter, it posted a loss of 5 cents a share.

Adjusted net revenue of $594.25 million in the fourth quarter beat the $572 million analysts had forecast. A year ago, revenue was $443.42 million.

SoFi began as a lender focused on refinancing debt but now operates through three segments: lending, which includes student, personal, and home loans; financial services; and a technology platform.

Record revenue at the company level was driven by record revenue across all three of the business segments, with a record contribution of 40% of adjusted net revenue generated by non-Lending segments (Technology Platform and Financial Services segments).

Deposits increased by $2.9 billion to $18.6 billion in the quarter, and customers grew by nearly 585,000 to more than 7.5 million.

Because personal loans take up the biggest share of the portfolio, analysts tend to pay attention to those numbers. At the end of 2023, the company said, personal loans were marked at 104.9%—up from 104% at the end of the third quarter.

Beyond 2024, the company forecasts 20% to 25% compound revenue growth from 2023 to 2026, with per-share earnings from 55 cents to 80 cents a share in 2026.

Sofi continues to be the high-risk, high-reward name that intrigues investors on big drops.  

Every spike in shares has also offered a short window of opportunity to short the stock.

Conversely, each drop of 10% or 20% has been a great entry point into shares.

As we advance further into 2024, the narrative will soon change into the Fed pivot and even though the Fed has said they won’t cut rates yet, the market is anticipating it later this year.

For any tech stock that is interest rate sensitive like Sofi, I don’t see how it is smart to bet against them for the rest of 2024.

Tech often overshoots to each side and Sofi shares will be higher in one year from now after the Fed finally does follow through with 1.5% of interest rate cuts which equals to 6 quarter point cuts.

Sofi’s projected 25% revenue growth certainly will add more firepower to share price action if they can pull it off.

However, these types of early-stage companies are notorious for overpromising and underdelivering.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2024-02-02 14:02:342024-02-02 18:51:22The Tech Lender
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 2, 2024 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“Unless you are breaking stuff, you are not moving fast enough.” – Said CEO of Facebook Mark Zuckerberg

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/mzucherberg.png 408 264 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2024-02-02 14:00:312024-02-02 18:50:19February 2, 2024 - Quote of the Day
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

January 31, 2024

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
January 31, 2024
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(FOLLOW THE CELL TOWERS IN TECH)
(CCI)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-01-31 14:04:452024-01-31 15:02:32January 31, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Follow The Cell Towers In Tech

Tech Letter

I will explain to everyone why the digital revolution is becoming supercharged in a blink of an eye.

Market valuations reflect the state of expected future cash flows in a company.

Under this assumption, some could argue that most big tech companies with staying power are almost a good buy at any price.

No brainers would include a list of Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, and Netflix.

The global health scare and the carnage associated with it have brought forward revenue and expertise from the tech industry and infused the global economy with more cash.

When you mix that with the Fed playing nice, it sets up conditions for heavy buying in an industry that is going to be king of the global economy anyway.

Tech has been rampant in the first month of 2024 and the brief selloffs we get are only because we are running too hot too fast.

Doing business as we know it has been fast forwarded by 15 years.

The change took place in a blistering 4 weeks.

The clearest signal of who is really calling the shots in the equity market is looking at which companies are dragging it up.

Technology is shouldering the responsibility of the equity market by outperforming the broader market with many software companies’ share price higher than before the crisis.

For every Amazon or Microsoft, there is also a Macy’s or JC Pennys showing that this is really a stock pickers market.

We have not only learned that tech companies are critical to our functioning as a society, but that large tech companies will be even more central than ever before.

We are setting up for the Golden Age of tech who are earmarked to capture even more of the broader equity market.

I do agree that currently, the network effect is working in overdrive like a positive force multiplier. The US economy is riding high again, and this cannot be emphasized enough with the US economy printing growth quarter after quarter.

Digital revenue streams will effectively be pumped into every nook and crevice of the digital economy because of current modifications to the business environment.

Tech is destroying literally every sub-sector as we speak.

Take a look at commercial real estate and hotel operators; they have had to fight against the triple whammy of office sharing WeWork, short-term hotel platform Airbnb, and the coronavirus - a lethal three-part cocktail of malicious forces to the “traditional” model.

Any deep-pocketed investors should be cherry-picking every quality cell tower play possible because they are one of various supercharged sub-sectors of tech.

Obviously, there are other no brainers like semiconductor chips and certain software companies.

Any long-term investor with a pulse should buy Crown Castle International Corp. (REIT) (CCI) on any and all dips.

They are the largest owner of cell towers owning over 40,000 in the U.S. and the data will flow through these towers juicing the wider economy.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-01-31 14:02:452024-01-31 15:02:21Follow The Cell Towers In Tech
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

January 29, 2024

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
January 29, 2024
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE DATA CENTER STOCK READERS SHOULD LOOK AT)
(EQIX)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-01-29 14:04:362024-01-29 14:30:24January 29, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

The Data Center Stock Readers Should Look At

Tech Letter

Equinix (EQIX) is a tech company from Redwood City, California that specializes in building data centers.

That corner of technology is definitely where the growth is.

Everybody and anybody has heard a few things about this ongoing AI boom and remembers this secular trend hinges on the explosion of data and its incredible volume of it.

The processing of data requires data centers much like the processing of driver's licenses requires the Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV).

It’s not a surprise that the intense demand for data has meant a monumental need to supply new data centers and EQIX exists to deliver that new supply.

EQIX has performed admirably recently with solid revenue growth, a strong forward pipeline, and continued optimism about a differentiated ability to deliver compelling value to shareholders.

In the last quarter, they consummated 4,200 deals across more than 3,100 customers, including record numbers from high-value targeted customers.

EQIX was also able to upsell these companies on data center services, and digital services offerings, all coming together to address the evolving demands.

On the AI front, EQIX continues to cultivate and win significant opportunities across its existing customer base and with AI-specific prospects.

A recent Gartner poll found that 55% of organizations are in pilot or production mode with generative AI.

This is manifesting in accelerated interest from both enterprise customers and from emerging service providers looking to service this demand.

I am witnessing strong similarities between the evolving AI demand and the multi-tiered architectures that have characterized cloud build-out for the past eight years.

I think EQIX is perfectly positioned to capture high-value opportunities across the AI value chain along various key vectors.

First, in the retail business, EQIX will aggressively pursue magnetic AI service provider deployments to support on-ramps and smaller-scale training needs.

EQIX is well positioned here with nearly 40% market share of the on-ramps to the major cloud service providers, key players in the AI ecosystem.

Second, EQIX will meaningfully augment its advanced portfolio of specific data centers, including in North America to pursue strategic large-scale AI training deployments with the top hyperscalers and other key AI ecosystem players, including the potential to serve highly targeted enterprise demand.

I expect a build-out of data centers in retail campuses like the newly announced Silicon Valley 12x asset while other builds will be larger-scale campuses in locations with access to significant power capacity.

I also anticipate a dramatic acceleration in workloads and see Equinix as well positioned to deliver performance and economic benefits derived from network density and cloud adjacency.

While still early, I am seeing broad-based demand for private AI from digital leaders with specific wins in the transportation, education, public sector, and healthcare verticals, including Harrison.ai, a clinician-led healthcare artificial intelligence company that is dedicated to addressing the inequality and capacity limitations in the US healthcare system, by developing AI-powered tools in radiology and pathology.

Recurring revenues from customers deployed in more than one region stepped up 1% quarter over quarter to 77% as customers continued to move to more distributed architectures.

The brilliance of EQIX is that revenue is not a one-off event and companies will return with new data center needs.

If a company is not incorporating the processing of additional data, it most likely means they are not growing revenue.

This gives EQIX the chance to partner with high-quality companies that are at the heart of the digital transformation.

EQIX’s stock speaks volumes about where the company is as the stock has doubled in the past 5 years. They also deliver a 2.10% dividend to shareholders. I believe readers need to buy big dips and hold long-term in EQIX.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-01-29 14:02:362024-01-29 14:30:03The Data Center Stock Readers Should Look At
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 29, 2024 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“Your time is limited, so don’t waste it living someone else’s life.” – Said Apple Co-Founder Steve Jobs

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/steve-jobs.png 722 572 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2024-01-29 14:00:382024-01-29 14:29:39January 29, 2024 - Quote of the Day
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

January 26, 2024

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
January 26, 2024
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(WESTERN DIGITAL HAS POTENTIAL)
(WDC), (NVDA), (AMD)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-01-26 14:04:012024-01-26 15:36:30January 26, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Western Digital Has Potential

Tech Letter

Chip stocks have been the talk of the town in the tech world.

It’s hard not to notice as stock valuations skyrocket.

These aren’t normal times anymore.

A secular trend that could be the biggest we have seen for a generation is taking hold.

That trend today is AI, and this 800-pound gorilla in the room is causing institutional money to pour into the chips that will help AI and the top firm is clearly Nvidia (NVDA).

After NVDA, there is a solid group of others like AMD, but even after that, there is still more ammo left in the shotgun.

Investors could look at an intriguing name - something like Western Digital (WDC).

WDC has a $19 billion valuation and in the long term future could be considered a bargain looking back.

Its earnings weren’t great with another quarter of decelerating revenue.

Western Digital (WDC) reported a narrower-than-expected loss for its December quarter, with revenue just squeaking past expectations.

The business model has been affected due to the impact of structural changes the company implemented in its flash and HDD businesses.

Last quarter, the company said it would spin off its flash memory business, which has been grappling with a supply glut after talks of merging the unit with Japan's Kioxia stalled, by the second half of 2024.

The company said its second-quarter loss included $156 million underutilization-related charges in Flash and HDD.

Western Digital has struggled as demand for memory chips cooled in the past couple of years, but underlying shares have rallied in recent months.

WDC stock had gained nearly 40% since the end of October.

Cloud represented 35% of total revenue, with the quarterly growth attributed to higher “nearline” or onsite data storage shipments to data center customers and better nearline pricing. The increase in client revenue was driven by an increase in the average selling price of flash memory and customer revenue was driven by a seasonal surge in flash bit shipments.

Revenue came in at $3.023 billion, down 2.5% year-over-year but up 10% quarter-over-quarter.

In addition to the recovery in both Flash and HDD markets, I believe storage is entering a multi-year growth period.

Generative AI has quickly emerged as yet another growth driver and transformative technology that is reshaping all industries, all companies, and our daily lives.

Importantly, industry analysts estimate that the edge now represents approximately 80% of total NAND bit shipments, an increase from approximately 75% in 2022, which is another indication that cloud demand was significantly pulled in during the pandemic.

In addition, I believe the second wave of generative AI-driven storage deployments will spark a client and consumer device refresh cycle and reaccelerate content growth in PC, smartphone, gaming, and consumer in the coming years.

WDC has done some nice business specifically in the cloud division with some serious growth.

WDC is also at the center of the generative AI trend and they could be the recipient of “the tide lifts all boats.”

However, I don’t like how revenue as a whole isn’t growing causing major uproar in the investor community.

Splitting up the company should do the trick of weeding out the bad revenue from the good.

I do believe that WDC represents good value for buy-and-hold investors in the mid-$50 range.

This isn’t an ideal stock to trade in and out and even on an earnings beat, the stock sold off which isn’t what investors like to see in terms of price action.

There isn’t enough investor confidence in the stock yet, but that could change in the future.

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-01-26 14:02:512024-01-26 15:36:04Western Digital Has Potential
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 26, 2024 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“I have had all of the disadvantages required for success.” – Said Co-Founder and Chief Technology Officer of Oracle Larry Ellison

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Larry-Ellison.png 554 356 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2024-01-26 14:00:552024-01-26 15:35:43January 26, 2024 - Quote of the Day
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