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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Catching Optimal Entry Points in Tech

Tech Letter

Buy Applied Materials (AMAT) on the dip.

That was my conclusion after hearing this chip-making stock nose-diving by the most in almost a year.

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Rarely do traders get such a good entry point into such a high-quality name.

AMAT has been around forever and it is a tried and tested chip brand that produces high-quality equipment.

It’s noteworthy that a report showed that AMAT faces a US criminal investigation for allegedly violating export restrictions to China, but it’s a storm in a teacup.

It’s not such a big deal, because the bad news will get discounted quickly and the US will probably give AMAT a light slap on the wrist.

It makes no sense to destroy a company that is critical to national security infrastructure.

Maybe a few executives will get laid off and then we move on.

After this issue is swept under the carpet, it’s all systems go for AMAT.

The company is being probed by the Justice Department over dealings with China’s biggest chipmaker, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp.

The department is considering whether Applied Materials sold hundreds of millions of dollars of equipment without the proper licenses.

Chip companies are operating under increasingly strict rules imposed by Washington on exports of chip technology to China.

Acquiring licenses to send certain types of machines to Asia is a sign of the times and how national governments are desperate to keep technological know-how in the state.

Applied Materials produced chipmaking gear in Gloucester, Massachusetts, and then shipped it to a subsidiary in South Korea.

It then went to China’s SMIC, the people familiar with the investigation said.

SMIC was placed on a so-called entity list in December 2020 by the Department of Commerce, which cited alleged links between the chipmaker and China’s military.

Semiconductor manufacturers order machinery from Applied Materials and its peers well ahead of opening new factories, which can take more than a year to build and equip.

Though the chip industry has been contending with a slowdown in personal computers and smartphones, Applied Materials Chief Executive Officer Gary Dickerson has argued that artificial intelligence computing will fuel a new surge in demand.

Semiconductor equipment companies have been hurt by weak demand from memory chip makers, which are enduring an industry glut.

Luckily, the savior is AI and its insatiable demand for high-end processors.

China has been one of the fastest-growing markets for chip equipment. But the US restrictions have put a wet towel on the business relationship.

Uncertainty is the keyword here, but if AMAT keeps producing world-class equipment, it will accrue value in almost any financial market.

I am comfortable recommending AMAT now and the discount certainly makes it look more attractive.

Once AMAT acquires a license to sell to the Chinese, this will be forgotten.

The demand for conventional chips and AI chips is leading the charge and even though there is a glut of non-AI chips, AI chips will lead the charge in the short term before consumer demand comes back.

This is the forefront of technology and readers should grab a piece of it.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2023-11-17 14:02:492023-11-17 15:32:30Catching Optimal Entry Points in Tech
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

November 15, 2023

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
November 15, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(CONSIDERING AT INVESTMENT IN FISKER THEN READ THIS)
(FSR), (TSLA)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2023-11-15 14:04:322023-11-15 15:52:36November 15, 2023
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Considering Investment in Fisker Then Read This

Tech Letter

Removing the Chief Accounting Officer and delaying earnings on the day of earnings is a massive red flag for EV start-up Fisker (FSR).

Fisker said in a filing that it “determined that it has material weaknesses in the company’s internal control over financial reporting.”

Hiring the wrong person for one of the most important jobs at the company only to realize on the day of an earnings report is more than bad optics, and it certainly means there is probably a lot worse going on under the hood.

The blood bath in FSR shares continues today with the stock cratering over 2% which is on the heels of a 21% drop on Tuesday.

Fisker CFO Geeta Gupta-Fisker said the company is cutting its 2023 production guidance to a range of 13,000-17,000 units to enable the company’s “global delivery and logistics platform to scale” and not sit on inventory. Fisker’s challenges with delivery resulted in 4,725 vehicles produced, but only 1,097 delivered.

FSR has continued to over-promise and deliver which creates a toxic recipe for lower stock prices.

After peaking at over $28 per share in the summer of 2021, the stock has done nothing but slide into the abyss.

CEO Henrik Fisker said customers were waiting a long time for their vehicles and were getting “annoyed.”

Fisker’s production forecast stood at 20,000-23,000 units, which itself was reduced from a prior forecast of 32,000-36,000 in May, and again from 42,400 earlier this year.

It’s only time until the EV company starts reducing its forecasts even more and this constant expectation of changing expectations is due to bad management.

FSR lost $91 million in the past quarter and only has a tick above half a billion in cash.

Doing some basic math, it means that FSR will burn through their existing cash in 5 quarters if they lose around the same amount of cash each quarter moving forward. If this happens, they will need to tap the corporate debt market and pay extortionate rates of something between 17% and 20% considering they have a high chance of filing for bankruptcy.

Readers should keep in mind that FSR doesn’t sell a cheap car.

It’s quite expensive which will make it even harder to scale.

That’s bad news for a start-up that only delivers about 1,000 cars per quarter.

Performance and management seem like they aren’t up to snuff and on paper, the company isn’t hitting the metrics it needs to be taken seriously by investors.

From a pricing point of view, Fisker made pricing adjustments for its lone Ocean SUV, cutting its top trim Ocean Extreme by $7,500 to $61,499.

Ultimately, I see FSR’s competitive position, or lack thereof exacerbating as we move forward.

I don’t see how they catch up with the heavyweights as it relates to many critical factors in running a successful EV firm.

Low-interest rates or something similar to them will not be back for a long time and perhaps never.

This new rate environment doesn’t favor the start-ups the ones that already “made it” in a low-rate environment of the past.

FSR makes a good car, but not to the point where buyers will pass up other cheaper options.

If FSR is struggling to deliver more than 1,000 cars per quarter, it bodes ill for repeat purchases after so many buyers are waiting for cars that should have already been delivered.

Management not understanding the logistics of the situation is hard to fathom in 2023.

They might want to pick up the phone and call around to see what is going on.

If a buyer spends more than $70,000 for an EV from an untested brand like FSR, better get the car there on time.

There is a reason why Tesla (TSLA) just caught a bid and shares went up 18% and the stock has doubled this year and it’s not because they have trouble delivering 1,000 cars.

I’ll take a hard pass on FSR for right now.

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2023-11-15 14:02:012023-11-15 15:52:20Considering Investment in Fisker Then Read This
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 15, 2023 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“My goal was never to make Facebook cool. I am not a cool person.” – Said Co-Founder and CEO of Facebook Mark Zuckerberg

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/mark-zuckerberg.png 588 376 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-11-15 14:00:092023-11-15 15:52:07November 15, 2023 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 13, 2023

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
November 13, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(RIDE THE NVIDIA AND AMD ROLLER COASTER)
(NVDA), (AMD), (ORCL), (GOOGL), (AMZN)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-11-13 14:04:242023-11-13 16:20:10November 13, 2023
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Ride the Nvidia and AMD Roller Coaster

Tech Letter

It’s scary when the best chip company in the world rolls out new products.

It’s scary because others can’t compete and they get left further behind.

It’s scary because the high level of technology facilitates another new wave of technological expertise in other companies from the software and hardware side.

These new products are almost always faster, more efficient, and better than the previous products catalyzing a snowball effect that lifts everybody’s revenue.

This type of outstanding performance of late is the reason that made Nvidia (NVDA) into the world’s most valuable chipmaker and they have announced they are updating its H100 artificial intelligence processor, adding more capabilities to a product that has fueled its dominance in the AI computing market.

The new model, called the H200, will get the ability to use high-bandwidth memory, or HBM3e, allowing it to better cope with the large data sets needed for developing and implementing AI.

Amazon’s AWS, Alphabet’s Google (GOOGL) Cloud and Oracle’s (ORCL) Cloud Infrastructure have all committed to using the new chip starting next year.

Winning orders is easy with the outsized brand recognition and type of game changing product on offer.

The current version of the Nvidia processor is already experiencing accelerated demand.

But the product is facing stiffer competition: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is bringing its rival MI300 chip to market in the fourth quarter, and Intel Corp. claims that its Gaudi 2 model is faster than the H100.

AMD is another chip company that readers should feel comfortable diversifying into if they don’t feel comfortable putting all eggs into the Nvidia basket.

AMD’s stock is surging towards old highs around $125 and should overtake that soon after the nice rally in the 2nd half of the year.

With the new product, Nvidia is trying to keep up with the size of data sets used to create AI models and services.

Adding the enhanced memory capability will make the H200 much faster at bombarding software synthesizing data.

Large computer makers and cloud service providers are expected to start using the H200 in the second quarter of 2024.

Nvidia got its start making graphics cards for gamers, but its powerful processors have now won a following among data center operators.

That division has gone from being a side business to the company’s biggest moneymaker in less than five years.

Nvidia’s graphics chips helped pioneer an approach called parallel computing, where a massive number of relatively simple calculations are handled at the same time.

That’s allowed it win major orders from data center companies, at the expense of traditional processors supplied by Intel.

The growth helped turn Nvidia into the poster child for AI computing earlier this year — and sent its market valuation soaring.

Nvidia is like a freight train that has left the station.

The stock is up 9 straight days as we cruise into its earnings report on November 21st.

It’s hard to see this earnings report being nothing short of spectacular and Nvidia have become famous for forecasting the unthinkable.

They then go and surpass a high bar and push the envelope further so it’s not a bad idea to buy NVDA before the earnings report.

The speed at which they come out with products is astounding and now being able to boast the best server chip in the tech enterprise community, it just represents yet another powerful part of their stunning array of tech arsenal.

$600 per share is a no-brainer for Nvidia and that will be surpassed in 2024.

 

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-11-13 14:02:452023-11-13 16:33:10Ride the Nvidia and AMD Roller Coaster
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 13, 2023 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“If you don’t understand the details of your business you are going to fail.” – Said Founder and CEO of Jeff Bezos

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/jeff-b.png 141 181 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-11-13 14:00:092023-11-13 16:19:02November 13, 2023 - Quote of the Day
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

November 10, 2023

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
November 10, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(ARTISANAL TECH FEELS THE HEAT)
(BMBL), (PTON), (MTCH)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2023-11-10 14:04:062023-11-10 15:18:45November 10, 2023
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Artisanal Tech Feels The Heat

Tech Letter

Bumble (BMBL) is a dating app in which women initiate communication first and their CEO Whitney Wolfe Herd deciding to quit offers deep insight into the state of tech firms.

Remember that Wolfe Herd is the person who established this app and presided over an 83% decline in share price since an initial public offering over two years ago.

Clearly, the writing was on the wall for Wolfe Herd, but she shouldn’t receive all the blame.

There is an industry-wide malaise occurring in some sub-sectors of technology and smartphone dating apps are one of them.

Some investors have started to gain a sense that these apps don’t have enough bang for the buck and these business models are gaining in popularity.

In the past few weeks, the popular dating app Tinder announced a new feature rolling out a new subscription tier for $500 per month boasting it would unlock premium profiles at that price point.

Asking for $6,000 per year is a serious overreach for a dating app and I believe that type of ask will alienate some of the core users.

These apps are supposed to scale but not at $6,000 per year.

What else is the big challenge for Bumble?

How to get consumers to commit money to a dating app when the economy is so uncertain?

That’s the conundrum.

In the months after the pandemic, online dating apps became the hottest ticket in town as the only way to not sacrifice a dating life.

Bumble, which currently has 40 million active monthly users across its portfolio of apps, is now fiercely fighting for users with its competitor Match (MTCH).

As with some of these niche tech businesses, opening up the economy from the lockdowns has been a tough pill to swallow as it relates to the knock-on effect on future sales.

In terms of pure market sentiment, investors have determined a strong likelihood that the lockdowns were the high water mark for these artisanal apps. 

Unfortunately, these sub-sector stocks are labeled as a time and place stock and not one that is worth holding in times of chaos and upheaval.

We are far from the start-up frenzy peak where entrepreneurs could make hopes based on fantasies into an app and concoct a targeted addressable market.

It’s not going to cut it anymore, because the bar is so much higher.

In the era of cheap money, funding niche sub-sectors of technology was still quite fashionable and mainstream.

I would even say it caught fire.

Then there is the issue of artificial intelligence concerning how this type of technology delivers poison to the innards of the business model.

How?

Dating apps could easily turn into bots chatting to bots to monetize users with no real value. This would constitute a fake business. Ad sponsors could be paying for this to happen. AI integrates into online dating apps quite poorly because it strips away the authenticity of the end user which undermines communication and the underlying asset.

A fake business would mean a crash in the underlying equity value. Of course, we are not even close to that possibility right now, but keep in mind that force-feeding management to one-up AI capabilities could unearth some bizarre unintended consequences.

Ultimately, the end of 2023 is a dynamic time in technology because the trajectory of companies has never been so uncertain, fluid, and challenging at the same time.

Expect quite a few of these artisanal apps to get swept into the dustbin of history.

Readers need to stay away from sub-sector technology stocks like Peloton (PTON) and instead go for stocks that have broader exposure to more wallets where artificial intelligence will act as a tailwind.

Plus, many people use Instagram, X, or Facebook for dating anyway. No need to overcomplicate life.

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2023-11-10 14:02:052023-11-10 15:18:20Artisanal Tech Feels The Heat
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

November 10, 2023 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“Move fast and break things.” – Said Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/mark-zuckerberg.png 588 376 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2023-11-10 14:00:102023-11-10 15:18:07November 10, 2023 - Quote of the Day
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