What's the Market Outlook for the Coming Week?
The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium will be the dominant event of the coming week, the annual confab of central bankers, economists, and academics on August 27-29.
Whatever leaks out or not, will, or won?t be the principal driver of asset prices in the coming days.
Certainly the Fed has made the lives of traders increasingly miserable lately, ramping up their flip-flop at an ever-increasing rate. Should rates rise or not?
Who WOULDN?T be confused by such behavior?
I can see a pattern setting up here where Fed members talk the market down into September, then Janet Yellen jumps in, overrules everyone and does absolutely nothing.
That would give us a modest 3% correction into mid September, followed by an absolutely monster rally to new highs into the election.
YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST!
Whatever data releases are coming this week, they will be vastly overshadowed by the Jackson Hole event.
On Monday, August 22 at 8:30 AM EST, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index should see some improvement.
Tuesday, August 23 will be a big day. That?s when we receive Housing Starts and the Consumer Price Index at 8:30 AM EST, followed by Industrial Production at 9:15 AM EST and E-Commerce Retail Sales at 10:00 AM EST.
On Wednesday, August 24 at 10:00 AM we see Existing Home Sales, which are moving from strength to strength.
On Thursday, August 25 at 8:30 AM EST the Weekly Jobless Claims should confirm that employment remains at decade highs. We will also get Durable Goods, which could go either way.
Friday, August 26 should be interesting. We get an update on Q2 GDP at 8:30 AM EST. With the last update, we saw a shockingly large upward revision. Then Janet Yellen speaks at Jackson Hole.
We wind up with the Baker Hughes Rig Count on Friday at 1:00 PM EST. Worryingly, the trend has been up for the past two months, driving oil prices lower.
The net net of all of this could be continued sideways trading with low volatility which is driving all of us nuts.
