Why I?m Buying the Euro

I am used to my readers thinking that I have gone ?Mad?, am out of my tree, or have started smoking California?s number one cash crop (hint: it?s not almonds).

Such was the abuse that I received last week when I demanded they buy oil at $28 a barrel last week. After all, no other authority than Barron?s said it would imminently plunge to $20.

By the way, I kicked those call options out this morning with a three day, 23% profit. Buy the rumor, sell the news.

I got similar levels of thankless abuse this morning when I then told them to buy the Euro (FXE).

WHAT? COME AGAIN?

I think the Euro (FXE) has just entered a new uptrend against the US dollar (UUP).

We have spent over a year putting in a bottom for the beleaguered continental currency at $103, which right now, looks like it is holding like the Rock of Gibraltar.

If you can?t trade options here, just buy the (FXE) outright for a move to $116 in coming months.

We broke through the 200-day moving average to the upside two weeks ago, and are falling back to test that line. The old resistance at $108.49 is the new support.

ECB president, Mario Draghi, has once again threatened further stimulus in March to keep the continent?s meager growth rate growing. That gave us a $2.4-point pull back today from the recent top, and a nice entry point for this call spread.

However, past experience has proven that Mario is a better talker than a doer.

Not only that, what quantitative easing Mario Draghi has already implemented seems to be working. The latest Euro Zone GDP growth rate came in at 0.30%, not exactly robust, but better that the negative numbers we saw last year.

All we need now is for China, Europe?s biggest customer, to post some better economic numbers, and it will be off to the races for the Euro.

Now that the prospect of further interest rate rises by the Federal Reserve has been thrown out the window, the dollar has run out of appreciation fuel.

FXE

 

DollarEuro Battle