October 2, 2015


Don’t Miss the October 7 Global Strategy Webinar

John Thomas

My next global strategy webinar will be held on Wednesday,October 7 at 12:00 PM EST. Bill Davis the Mad Day Trader will be my willing coconspirator. I’ll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, precious metal, and real estate. The goal is to find the cheapest assets in the world to buy, the most expensive to sell short, and the appropriate … [Read more...]

Peter F. Drucker on Management

The Essential Drucker

If you have been living in a cave for the last 74 years and missed the work of management guru, Peter F. Drucker, here is your chance to catch up. I just finished reading The Essential Drucker, a weighty tome of 368 pages which summarized the high points and pearls of wisdom of the author's 38 books published since 1939. A self-described 'social ecologist', Drucker was a … [Read more...]

Thank Goodness I Don’t Live in Sweden!


I recently found the chart below showing world tax rates as a percentage of GDP for the past 40 years. Sweden suffers the world's heaviest tax burden at 51%, compared to only 27% in the US. The US has among the world's lowest tax burdens in terms of actual taxes paid, which has been falling for the last ten years. Listening to TV pundits, you would think we had the world's … [Read more...]

Please Use My Free Data Base Search

Computer with Magnifying Glass

The original purpose of this letter was to build a database of ideas to draw on in the management of my hedge fund. When a certain trade comes into play, I merely type in the symbol, name, currency, or commodity into the search box, and the entire fundamental argument in favor of that position pops up. You can do the same. Just type anything into the search box with the … [Read more...]

October 2, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Clowns - French

“The French have more fun in one year than the English do in ten,” said John Adams, America’s second president, and one time ambassador to Paris and London. … [Read more...]

October 1, 2015


Friday, October 30 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon

San Francisco

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in San Francisco on Friday, October 30, 2015. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And … [Read more...]

Biotech and Health Care Stocks to Buy at the Bottom

Roller Coaster

One has to be truly impressed with the selloff in biotech and health care stocks since July. Once the top performing sectors of 2015, they went from heroes to goats, so fast, it made your head spin. What I called “The ATM Effect” kicked in big time. That’s when frightened investors run to the sidelines and sell their best stocks to raise cash. After all, no one wants to … [Read more...]

Keep Gilead Sciences on Your Radar


I am going to continue to use this correction in the stock market as an opportunity to put new names in front of you for inclusion in your investment portfolio. That way, when the markets turn, you can strike with the speed of a rattlesnake in returning to a “RISK ON” posture. Major turnarounds are not the time to engage in deep, fundamental research. It is when you should be … [Read more...]

October 1, 2015 – Quote of the Day


“People are investing with a rear view mirror. Last year, you had people legitimately scared out of the market. Unfortunately, you are losing a generation of investors at a time when they ought to be thinking about buying high quality stocks,” said Hersh Cohen of Clearbridge Advisors. … [Read more...]

September 30, 2015

Global Market Comments September 30, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (OCTOBER 12 PORTLAND, OREGON GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (CARL ICAHN IS AT IT AGAIN), (LNG), (FCX), (AAPL), (HYG), (JNK), (SIGN UP NOW FOR TEXT MESSAGING OF TRADE ALERTS) Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG)Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX)Apple Inc. (AAPL)iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bd (HYG)SPDR Barclays High Yield … [Read more...]

October 12, 2015 – Portland, OR Global Strategy Luncheon

Portland, OR

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Luncheon, which I will be conducting in Portland, Oregon at noon on Monday, October 12, 2015. A three course lunch will be followed by an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in … [Read more...]

Carl Icahn Is At It Again

Carl Icahn

Many ascribe Monday’s 312 point plunge in the Dow Average to an informational webinar posted by legendary corporate raider and hedge fund manager, Carl Icahn. I have known Carl for 30 years, and I once owned and apartment in his building on the Upper East Side of Manhattan, near Sutton Place (which I later sold for a quick double). Even then, he was opinionated, … [Read more...]

Sign Up Now for Text Messaging of Trade Alerts

John Thomas Switchboard

Paid subscribers to Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Fund Trader PRO are able to receive instantaneous text messages of my proprietary Trade Alerts. This eliminates frustrating delays caused by traffic surges on the Internet itself, and by your local server. Text Alerts hit customer cell phones withing 60 seconds from the time I issue them.  Emailed Trade Alerts usually … [Read more...]

September 29, 2015

Global Market Comments September 29, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (LOADING UP ON THE (XIV), (XIV), (VIX), (SPY), (THE POPULATION BOMB ECHOES), (POT), (MOS), (AGU), (WEAT), (CORN), (SOYB), (DE) (TESTIMONIAL) VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX ST ETN (XIV)VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc. (POT)The Mosaic Company … [Read more...]

Loading Up on the (XIV)

Pogo Stick

Excuse me, but am I missing something here? Has my advanced age obscured my vision, clouded my judgment, and left me discombobulated? These are the thoughts that kept coming to mind when I looked at the action in the Velocity Shares Daily Inverse VIX Short Term ETN (XIV) on Monday. At the absolute bottom of the August 24 flash crash, the Volatility Index (VIX) spiked up to … [Read more...]

The ‘Population Bomb’ Echoes

Paul R. Ehrlich

With the entire agricultural space one of the preeminent investment disasters this year, you’d be hard pressed to find a long-term bullish argument for the troubled sector. You know all those John Deere (DE) and Caterpillar (CAT) hats I saw American tourists wearing in Venice, Italy three years ago? This year, I didn’t see one! That is, of course, unless you read this … [Read more...]


John Thomas

A short note to thank John for 3 hours of great information and insight during his Melbourne strategy lunch. Listening to John’s ideas face to face was awesome and I have committed to myself to keep following his research and trade ideas because the performance has been outstanding. Regards, Dallas Melbourne, Australia … [Read more...]

September 29, 2015 – Quote of the Day

John Adams

“I must study politics and war that my sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy. My sons ought to study mathematics and philosophy, geography, natural history, naval architecture, navigation, commerce, and agriculture, in order to give their children a right to study painting, poetry, music, architecture, statuary, tapestry, and porcelain,” said John Adams, the … [Read more...]

September 28, 2015

Global Market Comments September 28, 2015 Fiat Lux SPECIAL CRASH ISSUE Featured Trade: (HOW TO TRADE A CRASH), (TEN STOCKS TO BUY AT THE BOTTOM), (SPY), (QQQ), (IWM), (JNK) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ)iShares Russell 2000 (IWM)SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) … [Read more...]

How to Trade a Crash

John Thomas

Call me lazy for repeating a research piece I only ran a month ago. But I have a feeling that you are going to really need to know how to trade a crash in the coming weeks. Therefore, it bears refreshing. Due to our recent blockbuster performance, up 7.25% last week alone, we have also taken in a large number of new subscribers. They should read this piece carefully and … [Read more...]

Ten Stocks to Buy at the Bottom

John Thomas

Suddenly, the consolidation turned into a correction and maybe even a bear market. A crucial part of trading a crash is knowing what to do at the bottom. Don’t worry. You’ll receive a flurry of text alerts from me right when that happens. Many individual investors simply run to the bathroom and lock the door, hoping nobody knocks on the door for a couple of days. Worse, they … [Read more...]

September 28, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Man Clouds Chart

“It’s not like stocks are so compelling. It’s that there is nowhere else to put your cash. There’s a ton of capital coming in here. When it feels this easy, it’s usually time to be cautious,” said Barry Sternwood, CEO of the Starwood Capital Group. … [Read more...]

September 25, 2015

Global Market Comments September 25, 2015 Fiat Lux ANOTHER SPECIAL CYBER WARFARE ISSUE Featured Trade: (FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON) (CASHING IN ON CYBER SECURITY), (PANW), (FEYE), (HACK) Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW)FireEye, Inc. (FEYE)PureFunds ISE Cyber Security ETF (HACK) … [Read more...]

Cashing In On Cyber Security

Kim Jong-un

Who’s really reading Your email? I bet you’d like to know! Another day, another hack attack. Today we learned that 5.6 million fingerprint records kept by the Office of Personal Management were recently stolen. This is the agency that functions as the US government’s human resources department, maintaining records on 21.5 million current and former employees. The timing … [Read more...]

September 24, 2015


Friday, October 23 Incline Village, Nevada Global Strategy Luncheon

Lake Tahoe View

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Incline Village, Nevada on Friday, October 23, 2015. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real … [Read more...]

A Very Bright Spot in Real Estate


I feel obliged to reveal one corner of this bubbling market that might actually make sense. By 2050 the population of California will soar from 37 million to 50 million, and that of the US from 300 million to 400 million, according to data released by the US Census Bureau and the CIA Fact Book (check out the population pyramid below). That means enormous demand for the low … [Read more...]

A Short History of Hedge Funds

Money, Arms Full

Legendary Fortune Magazine editor, Winslow Jones, created the first hedge fund out of a shabby office on Broadway in New York City in 1948, and generated monster returns over the next 20 years. He got the idea of a 20% performance bonus, now an industry standard, from ancient Phoenician sea captains who kept a fifth of the profits from successful voyages. Jones must have had … [Read more...]

September 24, 2015 – Quote of the Day


“You can reduce discretionary spending down to zero and it won’t have much impact on our fiscal problems because it’s such a small proportion of the total,” said Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve. … [Read more...]

September 23, 2015


Mad Hedge Fund Trader Hits New All Time High

John Thomas

Being the armchair historian that I am, I sense that I have just been through D-Day, the Battle of the Bulge, and Dien Bien Phu. That is what its felt like trading these violent markets for the past month. After snoring for eight months, volatility came back with a vengeance. They’re now running the movie on fast forward. So it has been a little more than a month since the … [Read more...]

A Different View of the US


My mother lives in Pakistan, my daughter in Greece, and I have a ski chalet in in Peru. What's more, I have strategy luncheons planned for Australia, Thailand, and Turkey. At least these would be my conclusions after looking at a map prepared by my esteemed former employer, The Economist magazine, of the United States, renaming each state with its international equivalent in … [Read more...]

September 23, 2015 – Quote of the Day


“Tesla (TSLA) is running faster than everyone else, so it’s hard to see how others can close the gap. I think the market smells this,” said Colin Rusch of Northland Capital Markets, and early investor in the Tesla IPO. … [Read more...]

September 22, 2015

Global Market Comments September 22, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (SEPTEMBER 23 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR) (WILL THE MARKET CRASH IN OCTOBER?), (SPY), (HD), (SIGN UP NOW FOR TEXT MESSAGING OF TRADE ALERTS) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) … [Read more...]

Will the Market Crash in October?

Black Tuesday Newspaper

I think the bull market has at least three more years to run, but I’ll tell you why later. In the meantime, we have to survive October first. That is easier said than done. October has long earned a notorious reputation as a wealth confiscation month for both professional traders and long-term investors. If you go broke during this always challenging month, you won’t have … [Read more...]

September 21, 2015

Global Market Comments September 21, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE DEATH OF GOLD), (GLD), (ABX), (GDX), (DON’T BUY ALIBABA, YET) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX)Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) … [Read more...]

The Death of Gold

John Thomas -Gold

One of the most impressive moves in the wake of the Fed’s Thursday move to maintain ultra low interest rates was to be found in gold. In the run up to the flash headline on the Fed non-announcement, the yellow metal rocketed $40. The action was even more impressive in silver (SLV), which tacked on 90 cents, or 6.6%. Now, here is the really bad new. The fundamentals for the … [Read more...]

Don’t Buy Alibaba, Yet

Masayoshi Son

Long time readers of this letter have known for years that the Alibaba IPO was coming, that it had massive implications for the market, and could well signal an interim market top. I’m sticking to my guns. You have to hand it to the underwriters of the company’s initial public offering, the largest in history. Some $25 billion in capital was raised.  At the all time high of … [Read more...]

September 21, 2015 – Quote of the Day


When the legendary economist, John Maynard Keynes, was asked if the world had ever seen a Great Depression before, he responded, “Yes, it was called the Dark Ages, and it lasted 400 years.” … [Read more...]

September 18, 2015

Global Market Comments September 18, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (SEPTEMBER 23 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR) (THANK YOU JANET YELLEN!), (SPY), (TLT), (WHY I’M CHASING THE EURO), (FXE), (EUO) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO) … [Read more...]

Thank You Janet Yellen

Janet Yellen.

Email sent to Federal Reserve Governor Janet Yellen, 9-17-2015 2:30 PM EST: Dear Janet, A great big thank you to you! All is forgiven! I apologize for those snarky questions I used to ask at your San Francisco Fed press conferences years ago. And I don’t regret for a second all those times I walked you to your car after your night economics class at UC Berkeley because you … [Read more...]

Why I’m Chasing the Euro

Printing Press

I’m not a person inclined to chase winning positions. Making money on one trade is certainly no guarantee that you will repeat the win on the next. Lightening doesn’t strikes twice in the same place. Well, actually it does sometimes, especially when it comes to selling short the Currency Shares Euro Trust (FXE). Selling short the Euro (EUO) has been one of my most consistently … [Read more...]

September 18, 2015 – Quote of the Day


“I’m worried that we now have the third bubble in three decades. We had the Dotcom bubble in the nineties, the property bubble in the 2000’s, and now we have the government bond bubble. Real interest rates are now massively negative. That’s where the bubble is.” said a Wall Street trader. … [Read more...]

September 17, 2015

Global Market Comments September 17, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON) (THE RECEPTION THAT THE STARS FELL UPON) … [Read more...]

The Reception That the Stars Fell Upon

George Shultz

While we're all sitting on our hands waiting for Janet Yellen to make her move, or non move, it is time to reminisce. My friend was having a hard time finding someone to attend a reception who was knowledgeable about financial markets, White House intrigue, international politics, and nuclear weapons. I asked who was coming. She said Reagan’s Treasury Secretary George Shultz, … [Read more...]

September 16, 2015

Global Market Comments September 16, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (FRIDAY, OCTOBER 23 INCLINE VILLAGE, NEVADA STRATEGY LUNCHEON) (THE BULL MARKET IS ALIVE AND WELL), or (HOW TO SPOT A MARKET TOP), (SPY), (NFLX), (TSLA), (FB), (LEN), (TLT), (BAC) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA)Facebook, Inc. (FB)Lennar Corporation (LEN)iShares 20+ Year … [Read more...]

The Bull Market is Alive and Well

John Thomas

It’s fall again, when my most loyal readers are to be found taking transcontinental railroad journeys, crossing the Atlantic in an a first class suite on the Queen Mary 2, or getting the early jump on the Caribbean beaches. What better time to spend your trading profits than after all the kids have gone back to school, and the summer vacation destination crush has subsided. … [Read more...]

How to Spot a Market Top

John Thomas

What has to happen for even me to believe that the market is topping? I have a laundry list: 1) Retail buyers enter the stock market on a large scale. So far they are missing in action. 2) S&P 500 profits historically peak at 50% above the old high. In the last cycle they got to $100 a share. So we still have room to soar to $150/share, some 20% above today’s probable … [Read more...]

September 16, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Cold War

“We are about to do something terrible to you. We are going to deprive you of an enemy,” Soviet commentator, Georgi Arbitov, told Secretary of State George Schultz at the end of the cold war. … [Read more...]

September 15, 2015

Global Market Comments September 15, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (OCTOBER 12 PORTLAND, OREGON GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (THE COMING MARKET REACTION TO THE FED DECISION), (SPY), (VIX), (TAKING A BITE OUT OF STEALTH INFLATION), (SGG), (WEAT) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX)iPath Bloomberg Sugar SubTR ETN (SGG)Teucrium Wheat ETF (WEAT) … [Read more...]

The Coming Market Reaction to the Fed Decision


Up, then down, then up again. How about that? Will the Federal Reserve reverse their nine-year interest rate-cutting trend, or does it have another three months of life? Is global economic weakness, or the approach of US full employment first and foremost in the mind of my friend, Federal Reserve governor Janet Yellen? I’m sure that two days before the meeting, even the Fed … [Read more...]

Taking a Bite Out of Stealth Inflation


When I visited the local Safeway over the weekend, I was snared by some uniformed pre-teens, backed by beaming mothers behind a card table selling Girl Scout cookies. I was a pushover. I walked away with a bag of Thin Mints, Lemon Chalet Creams, Do-Si-Dos, and Tagalongs. I have to confess a lifetime addiction to Girl Scout cookies. During the early eighties, one of the … [Read more...]

September 15, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Chinese Man Reading

“It’s hard when a $10-$11 trillion economy that affects one third of the global economy is on a learning curve,” said my Friend, David Tepper, of Appaloosa Management. … [Read more...]

September 14, 2015

Global Market CommentsSeptember 14, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(A DAY IN THE LIFE OF THE MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER),(SPY), (SPX), (QQQ), (AAPL), (VIX), (FSLR), (SCTY), (TLT), (TBT), (FXE), (GLD), (GDX), (USO) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)S&P 500 Index (SPX)PowerShares QQQ (QQQ)Apple Inc. (AAPL)VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX)First Solar, Inc. (FSLR)SolarCity Corporation (SCTY)iShares … [Read more...]

A Day in the Life of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader

John Thomas

Diary Entry for Monday, September 14, 2015 Dear Diary, 4:30 PM Sunday-the day before - Thought I’d check my Bloomberg to see how the Asian markets were opening. Yikes! China is down big again. Looks like it is going to be a “RISK OFF” day. Better fasten my seat belt, put on my hard hat, and get ready for a rough day. No rest for the wicked. At least for the first 15 … [Read more...]

September 14, 2015 – Quote of the Day


“Over the long term, all of the fiat currencies of the world are involved in a competitive devaluation. The structural stresses in most of the western economies are such that centrals banks will attempt to continue to substitute liquidity for solvency.” said Rick Rule, chairman of Sprott US Holdings, a precious metals specialist. … [Read more...]

September 11, 2015

Global Market Comments September 11, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON) (CATCHING UP WITH DAVID TEPPER) … [Read more...]

Catching Up With David Tepper

David Tepper

“Flat stocks is not a bad place to be right now,” said my friend, hedge fund legend David Tepper of Appaloosa Management LP. Those of a certain age will remember a TV commercial that instructed us that “When EF Hutton talks, people listen. Today, they should be listening to Tepper. David argues that river of liquidity that has been a tailwind for stocks for the past 17 years … [Read more...]

September 11, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Joan Rivers

“They say when you get old, you become wise. The truth is that when you get old, all the people who know you are stupid are dead,” said the late comedian, Joan Rivers. … [Read more...]

September 10, 2015

Global Market Comments September 10, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (FRIDAY, OCTOBER 23 INCLINE VILLAGE, NEVADA STRATEGY LUNCHEON) (PLEASE USE MY FREE DATA BASE SEARCH), (IS THIS THE BIG TRADE OF 2016?), (JJC), (DBA), (CORN), (CU), (USO), (KOL), (TESTIMONIAL) iPath DJ-UBS Copper SubTR ETN (JJC)PowerShares DB Agriculture ETF (DBA)Teucrium Corn ETF (CORN)First Trust ISE Global … [Read more...]

Please Use My Free Data Base Search

Woman hitting head

The original purpose of this letter was to build a database of ideas to draw on in the management of my hedge fund. When a certain trade comes into play, I merely type in the symbol, name, currency, or commodity into the search box, and the entire fundamental argument in favor of that position pops up. You can do the same. Just type anything into the search box found on most … [Read more...]

Is This the Big Trade of 2016?


Watching the entire commodity complex collapse in unison this year was nothing less than amazing, with many down 30% or more. And I mean the broader definition of commodity. It includes the base metals like copper (JJC), (CU), agricultural products (CORN), (SOYB), (DBA), precious metals (GLD), (SLV), and even energy (USO), (KOL). If you look carefully, you can find … [Read more...]


John Thomas - Bomber

Thank you for the call I received from your staff the other day, but I’m afraid I’m not going to be able to renew my subscription to the Mad Hedge Fund Trader. There’s nothing I’d like to do more than renew. I truly enjoy your insights on the markets and a description of your many travels. I have been following you for years and it is really a great deal. However, I am active … [Read more...]

September 9, 2015

Global Market Comments September 9, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (OCTOBER 12 PORTLAND, OREGON GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (THE BIPOLAR ECONOMY), (AAPL), (IBM), (INTC), (ORCL), (CAT), (HANGING OUT WITH THE WOZ), (AAPL), (TESTIMONIAL) Apple Inc. (AAPL)International Business Machines Corporation (IBM)Intel Corporation (INTC)Oracle Corporation (ORCL)Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) … [Read more...]

The Bipolar Economy


Corporate earnings are up big! Buy! No wait! The economy is going down the toilet! Sell! Buy! Sell! Buy! Sell! Help!! Anyone would be forgiven for thinking that the stock market has become bipolar. There is, in vact, an explanation for this madness. According to the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis, the answer is that corporate profits accounts for only … [Read more...]

Hanging Out With the Woz

Steve Wozniak

I first spoke to Steve Wozniak via HAM radio when I was 12 and he was the 14-year-old president of the Homestead High School Radio Club in Cupertino, California. With seven children, my dad was pretty stingy with allowance money. But when it came to electronic parts, I had an unlimited budget, as that is where he saw the future. So while other kids collected baseball cards, I … [Read more...]


John Thomas

Greetings from the great white north. I am a BIG fan of yours and have rejoined your Trade Alert Service for another year. You have friends around the world you have yet to meet. Enclosed is a token of my appreciation. Thanks a 100 trillion! Bob Vancouver, Canada … [Read more...]

September 8, 2015

Global Market Comments September 8, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (SEPTEMBER 9 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (THE MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER LOSES MONEY!), (SPY), (XIV), (VIX), (HD), (UHAL), (TESTIMONIAL) SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX ST ETN (XIV)VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX)The Home Depot, Inc. (HD)AMERCO (UHAL) … [Read more...]

The Mad Hedge Fund Trader Loses Money!

John Thomas

The month of August is now behind us, and it is all over but the crying. After a heroic effort, I traded the month to a near draw, posting a -0.90% loss, my first red ink of the year. Never mind that I would have turned positive if August had lasted a single day longer. Never mind that most investors would have given their right arm to be down only -0.90% last month. You … [Read more...]


John Thomas

The wise JT is correct again.  Nice short on the S&P 500 (SPY). Dallas, Melbourne, Australia … [Read more...]

September 8, 2015 – Quote of the Day


“The fundamental argument against gold is so fundamentally one-sided that it is almost comical,” said options trader, Jim Iuorio, of TJM Institutional Services. … [Read more...]

September 7, 2015

Global Market Comments September 7, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE AMERICAN ONSHORING TREND IS ACCELERATING), (GE), (TSLA), (TESTIMONIAL) General Electric Company (GE)Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) … [Read more...]

The American Onshoring Trend is Accelerating

Leonard DiCaprio

Onshoring, the return of US manufacturing from abroad, is rapidly gathering pace. Get onshoring right and ll of a sudden sector selection and rotation will become a piece of cake. Your trading and investment performance will rocket. Onshoring is increasingly playing a crucial part in the unfolding American industrial renaissance. It could well develop into the most important … [Read more...]


John Thomas - Melbourne

Thanks for your very informative daily updates and stories. I subscribe to four daily investment advisors and yours are the only one I always read and almost always follow. I followed your trades to the letter and most were successful. The problem was I was not trading live (always at least half a day late and sometimes a full day due to the time difference (US versus AUD), … [Read more...]

September 7, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Grave Diggers

“Guys that are short, they better have a shovel to dig themselves out of the grave,” said legendary hedge fund manager, David Tepper, of Appaloosa Management. … [Read more...]

September 4, 2015

Global Market Comments September 4, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (SEPTEMBER 9 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (BLAME IT ALL ON THE RISK PARITY TRADERS!), (VIX), (SPY), (TLT), (THE BEST TESTIMONIAL EVER) VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX)SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)iShares Trust - iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) … [Read more...]

Blame It All on the Risk Parity Traders!

Arnold Schwarzenegger

Investment advisors everywhere are bemoaning the shenanigans of high frequency traders, offshore hedge funds, and the Chinese for the recent volatility of the market that has been scaring the living daylights out of their clients. But they have a new enemy that few outside the trading community are aware of: “Risk Parity” managers. Risk parity is now being blamed for the … [Read more...]

The Best Testimonial Ever

John Thomas - Beach

I was pondering an FXE trade alert from MHFT today when my cell rang with a Berkeley, CA area code. Since I know a couple people in that part of the world, I answered, and it was none other than John Thomas. Had I not heard his voice on the MHFT webinars, I would have thought I was being punked. But given that I’m in the last month of a trial run, he actually called to find … [Read more...]

September 3, 2015

Global Market CommentsSeptember 3, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(WILL THE MARKETS BOTTOM TOMORROW?),(SPY), (IWM), (QQQ), (VIX), (XIV),(THE GREAT SOCIAL SECURITY MARRIAGE BENEFIT YOU’VE NEVER HEARD OF) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)iShares Russell 2000 (IWM)PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ)VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX)VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX ST ETN (XIV) … [Read more...]

Will the Markets Bottom Tomorrow?

John Thomas-breakfast

Let the healing process begin! Having just barely missed tickling a new all time high in early August at $214, then tagging a cataclysmic low at $186 on August 24, the market has defined the range that it will settle into for the next 4-6 weeks. What then follows are a series of lower highs and higher lows to create a rightward pointing apex of a triangle on the charts. This … [Read more...]

The Great Social Security Marriage Benefit You’ve Never Heard Of

John Thomas-Vintage Car

The telltale signs were suddenly everywhere. The AARP membership cards appeared, unsolicited, in the mail (American Association of Retired Persons). People have started giving up their seat to me whenever I ride the BART, especially when I need a haircut. And recently, I have found those never ending TV ads about drugs dealing with arthritis, Alzheimer’s disease and erectile … [Read more...]

September 2, 2015

Global Market CommentsSeptember 2, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(BETTING ON FALLING VOLATILITY),(SPY), (XIV), (SVXY), (VIX), (VXX),(THE BLOCKBUSTER READ IN THE HEDGE FUND COMMUNITY) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX ST ETN (XIV)ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures (SVXY)VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX)iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN (VXX) … [Read more...]

Betting on Falling Volatility

Pogo Stick

I’m betting that sometime in my life, the Volatility Index (VIX) will trade below today’s $31. In fact, I expect it to trade back to the mid teens within the next two months. After spending years stuck in the $12-$15 range, it is nothing less than mind blowing to see it spike up to $31 this morning. However, it hit $53 at the opening of the August 24 flash crash, albeit … [Read more...]

The Blockbuster Read in the Hedge Fund Community

MONEY Master the Game

About a year ago, I received a call from a friend of Tony Robbins, the renown, six foot seven inch motivational speaker. He said he was looking for billionaires to participate in a future project. I answered that I wasn’t a billionaire yet, but that he should call me in a couple of years when I might be there. Last week, the end result of that project landed on my desk, the … [Read more...]

September 2, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Bond Bubbles

“This is an epic bond bubble that we may have just seen the end of, not only here, but in Europe too,” said Peter Boockvar, an analyst at the Lindsey Group. … [Read more...]

September 1, 2015

Global Market CommentsSeptember 1, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(THE BEAR MARKET THAT ISN’T),(SPY), (INDU), (IWM), (GLD), (SLV)(HOW AN EL NINO WINTER WILL AFFECT YOUR PORTFOLIO),(CORN), (SOYB), (DBA), (MOO) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI)iShares Russell 2000 (IWM)SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)iShares Silver Trust (SLV)Teucrium Corn ETF (CORN)Teucrium … [Read more...]

The Bear Market That Isn’t

John Thomas

It is often said that the stock market has discounted 18 out of the last six recessions. It has just discounted one of those non-recessions. The furious, violent, gut-wrenching 3,000-point nosedive we suffered in the Dow Average during August 19-24 essentially amounted to an entire bear market on its own. Could the market be discounting a Trump presidential … [Read more...]

How an El Niño Winter Will Affect Your Portfolio

Weather Globe

There is enormous excitement among climate scientists these days, and it has nothing to do with global warming. Sophisticated computer models say there is a 50/50 chance that the coming winter will be driven by the El Niño effect. It could hit as early as September. The potential consequences for your trading and investment portfolio are huge. The Australian Bureau of … [Read more...]

August 31, 2015

Global Market CommentsAugust 31, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(OCTOBER 12 PORTLAND, OREGON GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON),(THE BOND CRASH HAS ONLY JUST STARTED),($TNX), (TLT), (TBT) 10 Year Tresury Note Yield INDX ($TNX)iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) … [Read more...]

The Bond Crash Has Only Just Started

Grandpa Thomas

When I was a little kid in the early 1950’s, my grandfather used to endlessly rail against Franklin Delano Roosevelt. The WWI veteran, who was mustard gassed in the trenches of France and was a lifetime, died in the wool Republican, said the former president was a dictator and a traitor to his class, who trampled the constitution with complete disregard. Candidates Hoover, … [Read more...]