February 12, 2014

Global Market Comments February 12, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (GET READY FOR THE NEXT GOLDEN AGE), (SPY), (QQQ), (IWM), (EEM), (KOL), (USO), (UNG), (TSLA), (NSANY), (FXY), (YCS), (FXE) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) PowerShares QQQ (QQQ) iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) Market Vectors Coal ETF (KOL) United States Oil (USO) United States … [Read more...]

Get Ready for the Next Golden Age

thunderbird_1

I believe that the global economy is setting up for a new golden age reminiscent of the one the United States enjoyed during the 1950’s, and which I still remember fondly. This is not some pie in the sky prediction. It simply assumes a continuation of existing trends in demographics, technology, politics, and economics. The implications for your investment portfolio will be … [Read more...]

February 11, 2014

Global Market Comments February 11, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (FRIDAY FEBRUARY 14 SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA STRATEGY LUNCH), (WHY WARREN BUFFETT HATES GOLD), (GLD), (GDX), (ABX), (AN EVENING WITH JAMES BAKER III), (CONNECTING UP AMERICA) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX) … [Read more...]

Wednesday, February 12 Auckland, New Zealand Strategy Lunch

Auckland

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Auckland, New Zealand on Wednesday, February 12, 2014. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and question-and-answer period. I’ll be giving you my up-to-date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. I … [Read more...]

A Touchdown for USC

David and Dana Dornsife

One of my many alma maters, the University of Southern California, announced that they had received their largest private donation ever. As a third generation alumni of this fanatical football factory (I went to school with Mark Harmon, Lynn Swan, and, oops, OJ Simpson), I still receive their alumni newsletter, where I learned the good news. David and Dana Dornsife gave $200 … [Read more...]

February 7, 2014

Global Market Comments February 7, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (TAKING OFF FOR THE ANTIPODES), (SATURDAY FEBRUARY 22 BRISBANE AUSTRALIA STRATEGY LUNCH), (TESTIMONIAL) … [Read more...]

Taking off for the Antipodes

John Thomas-Sydney

I will be departing for my Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s 2014 Australia and New Zealand tour as soon as I finish writing today’s letter. During the next 18 days, I will fly 22,000 miles, dining with my abundance of readers in the southern hemisphere. I am leaving you in good hands with a clean conscience. The markets graciously allowed me to exit my three remaining positions with … [Read more...]

February 6, 2014

Global Market Comments February 6, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THURSDAY FEBRUARY 20 MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA STRATEGY LUNCH) (MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER SURGES AHEAD WITH A 5.78%), (TLT), (UNG), (AAPL) (DINNER WITH ELIOT SPITZER) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) United States Natural Gas (UNG) Apple Inc. (AAPL) … [Read more...]

Mad Hedge Fund Trader Rockets Ahead With a 6.49% January Profit

John Thomas - Skis

The red hot performance of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Trade Alert Service has maintained its blistering pace from last year, picking up another 6.49% profit in the first two trading weeks of 2014. The Dow Average was down 6.2% during the same period pegging my outperformance of the index at a stunning 12.7%. Since the beginning of 2013, I am up 77%. 2013 closed with a total … [Read more...]

February 5, 2014

Global Market Comments February 5, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (FRIDAY FEBRUARY 14 SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA STRATEGY LUNCH), (THREE CHARTS THAT WILL TURN THE MARKETS), (TLT), (TBT), (FXY), (YCS), (SPX), (BAC), (C), (GLD), (GRAPES OF WRATH REDUX), (TESTIMONIAL) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen … [Read more...]

Three Charts That Will Turn the Markets

Hula Girls

I wrote at length yesterday about why this is not a new bear market, but a traditional 7%-10% correction instead. Now, I’ll show you three charts that will call the exact turnaround. The ten-year Treasury bond (TLT), (TBT) is clearly the lead contract. It has, far and away, been the most accurate in anticipating the future direction of all asset classes. Get this one right, … [Read more...]

February 4, 2014

Global Market Comments February 4, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THREE CORRECTIONS FOR THE PRICE OF ONE), (TLT), (TBT), (SPY), (CHINA’S VIEW OF CHINA), (FXI), (EEM) (FEBRUARY 12 AUCKLAND NEW ZEALND STRATEGY LUNCH) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) iShares MSCI … [Read more...]

Three Corrections for the Price of One

fat+lady+sings

I love this market action. For me, it means that we are setting up ideal entry points for a broad range of asset classes that will deliver another +67% year. It will set up for you too, if you continue to read this letter. What the market is in fact doing is giving us three corrections for the price of one. Remember the traditional September swoon that never happened, the … [Read more...]

February 3, 2014

Global Market Comments February 3, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (FEBRUARY 5 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (NOW WE’RE COOKING WITH GAS), (AMERICA’S DEMOGRAPHIC TIME BOMB), (TESTIMONIAL)   … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss the February 5 Global Strategy Webinar

Robin Williams

My next global strategy webinar will be held on Wednesday, February 5 at 12:00 PM EST. This time Mad Day Trader Jim Parker will be my willing co-conspirator. I’ll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, precious metal, and real estate. The goal is to find the cheapest assets in the world to buy, the most expensive to sell short, and the … [Read more...]

Now We’re Cooking With Gas (UNG)

Natural-gas

Now We’re Cooking With Gas (UNG) Those who followed my advice to buy the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) July, 2014 $23 puts at $1.68 yesterday are now in the enviable position of owning a security that is running away to the upside. At this morning’s high the puts traded at $2.40, a one day gain of an eye popping 43%. I am getting emails from a lucky few that they … [Read more...]

January 31, 2014

Global Market Comments January 31, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (TIME TO SELL NATURL GAS), (UNG), (USO), (MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER 2014 GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON SCHEDULE) United States Natural Gas (UNG) United States Oil (USO) … [Read more...]

Time to Sell Natural Gas

Billy Bob's

Time to Sell Natural Gas I received a crackly, hard to understand call late last night from one of my old natural gas buddies in the Barnet shale in Texas. Chances are that CH4 peaked in price last night with the expiration of the front month contract. It was time to sell. I spent five years driving a beat up pick up truck on the tortuous, jarring, washboard roads of this … [Read more...]

The Mad Hedge Fund Trader 2014 Global Strategy Luncheon Schedule

2014 Luncheon Schedule

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Luncheons, which I will be conducting around the world throughout 2014. Please find the schedule for the next six months below. To warm you up, I’ll email you a PowerPoint presentation covering the broad range of topics we may cover, which is pretty much everything on the planet.  An excellent meal will be … [Read more...]

January 30, 2014

Global Market Comments January 30, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (SATURDAY FEBRUARY 22 BRISBANE AUSTRALIA STRATEGY LUNCH) (PULLING THE RIPCORD ON SOFTBANK), (SFTBY), (HAPPY BIRTHDAY IRS!), (THE TECHNOLOGY NIGHTMARE COMING TO YOUR CITY) SoftBank Corp. (SFTBY) … [Read more...]

Pulling the Ripcord on Softbank (SFTBY)

SoftBank

The day I bought my second lot of shares in the internet giant on December 12 was the exact point where a year of upward momentum in this stock came to a juddering halt. The shares have since been like an errant teenaged child who you keep giving the benefit of a doubt until he goes out and steals a car. That is show business. The immediate cause for the selloff was a … [Read more...]

January 29, 2014

Global Market Comments January 29, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THURSDAY FEBRUARY 20 MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA STRATEGY LUNCH) (AAPLE STRIKES AGAIN), (AAPL). (AN EVENING WITH TRAVEL GURU ARTHUR FROMMER) Apple Inc. (AAPL) … [Read more...]

Apple Strikes Again

apple logo

Let me tell you my thinking here. More than 51 million iPhones sold is good enough for me, 3.2 million more than they moved a year ago, and they are more expensive devices. IPads leapt from 22.9 million to 26 million, including the five high end ones I bought. The earnings announcement wasn’t that bad, with record quarterly YOY revenues of $57.6 billion reported. Earnings … [Read more...]

January 28, 2014

Global Market Comments January 28, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (FRIDAY FEBRUARY 14 SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA STRATEGY LUNCH), (WHAT THE MARKETS ARE DOING FROM HERE), (SPY), (QQQ), (IWM), (FXY), (TLT), (TBT), (XLF), (XLY), (TURKEY IS ON THE MENU),  (TUR), (TKC) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) PowerShares QQQ (QQQ) iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust … [Read more...]

What the Markets Will Do from Here

Gunpowder barrel

For the last couple of nights, I have left my iPhone logged into the Argentina peso market, one of several troubled currencies igniting the emerging market contagion. Whenever the peso losses another handle to the US dollar, an alarm goes off. That gives me a head start on how American markets will behave the next day. I have not been getting a lot of sleep lately. My poor … [Read more...]

Turkey is On the Menu

Istanbul

I am building lists of emerging market ETF’s to snap up during the current sell off, and Turkey popped up on the menu. The country is only one of two Islamic countries that I consider investment grade, (Indonesia is the other one). The 82 million people of Turkey rank 15th in the world population, and 16th with a GDP of $960 billion. Furthermore, 25% of the population is … [Read more...]

January 27, 2014

Global Market Comments January 27, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (FEBRUARY 12 AUCKLAND NEW ZEALND STRATEGY LUNCH) (THE PRICE OF STARDOM AT DAVOS), (WILL GOLD COINS SUFFER THE FATE OF THE $10,000 BILL), (GLD), (SIGN UP NOW FOR TEXT MESSAGING OF TRADE ALERTS) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) … [Read more...]

January 24, 2014

Global Market Comments January 24, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (SATURDAY FEBRUARY 22 BRISBANE AUSTRALIA STRATEGY LUNCH) (A FEW THOUGHTS ON TRADING STRATEGY), (SPY), (QQQ), (IWM), (GLD), (GDX), (ABX), (TLT), (TBT), (ANOTHER DINNER WITH ROBERT REICH) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) PowerShares QQQ (QQQ) iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) Market Vectors Gold … [Read more...]

A few Thoughts on Trading Strategy

Football-49er-Seahawks

After one of the wildest rides in recent memory, the stock market has ground to a complete halt. So have virtually all other asset classes as well. You can see this in the activity of my Trade Alert service as well. After sending out Alerts as fast as I could write them for the past three months, some three or four a day, the action has slowed to a snails pace. What … [Read more...]

Another Dinner With Robert Reich

Robert Reich

I never tire of listening to economics guru, Robert Reich, speak about the economy. He was former Labor Secretary under Bill Clinton, and ran against Mitt Romney for governor of Massachusetts (he lost). He has published 13 books. Oh, and he dated our recent Secretary of State, Hillary Rodham, when they were in law school together at Yale. I got to know Bob well when I took … [Read more...]

January 23, 2014

Global Market Comments January 23, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THURSDAY FEBRUARY 20 MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA STRATEGY LUNCH), (AIRLINE STOCKS ARE CLEARED FOR TAKEOFF), (AAL) (UAL), (DAL), (LUV), (TESTIMONIAL) American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) United Continental Holdings, Inc. (UAL) Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL) Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) … [Read more...]

Airline Stocks are Cleared for Take Off

United Airplain

When I was a young, clueless investment banker at Morgan Stanley 30 years ago, the head of equity sales took me aside to give me some fatherly advice. Never touch the airlines. The profitability of this industry was totally dependent on fuel costs, interest rates and the state of the economy and management hadn't the slightest idea of what any of these were going to do. If I … [Read more...]

January 22, 2014

Global Market Comments January 22, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (FRIDAY FEBRUARY 14 SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA STRATEGY LUNCH), (WHY THE WORLD HATES THE AUSSIE), (FXA), (EWA), (EWZ), (FXI), (REVISITING CHENIERE ENERGY), (LNG), (USO), (UNG) CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust (FXA) iShares MSCI Australia (EWA) iShares MSCI Brazil Capped (EWZ) iShares China Large-Cap … [Read more...]

Friday February 14 Sydney Australia Strategy Lunch

Sydney, AU

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Sydney, Australia at 12:00 noon on Friday, February 14, 2014. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide ranging discussion and a minute question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies commodities, precious metals, and … [Read more...]

Why the World Hates the Aussie

Women in Bikinis

Discretion certainly can be the better part of valor. That was the feeling that came over me last weekend when I saw the Australian dollar (FXA) plunge to a new three year low against the buck. I had been mulling over buying the Aussie around the $88 support level for the past couple of months. After all, with a synchronized global recovery in progress, and an international … [Read more...]

January 21, 2014

Global Market Comments January 21, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (FEBRUARY 12 AUCKLAND NEW ZEALND STRATEGY LUNCH), (HOW OBAMACARE WILL BOOST YOUR PORTFOLIO), (XLV), (GILD), (XLS), (XPH), (XBI), (GOOG) Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD) Exelis Inc. (XLS) SPDR S&P Pharmaceuticals ETF (XPH) SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) Google Inc. … [Read more...]

Wednesday, February 12 Auckland, New Zealand Strategy Lunch

Auckland

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Auckland, New Zealand on Wednesday, February 12, 2014. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and question-and-answer period. I’ll be giving you my up-to-date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. I … [Read more...]

How Obamacare Will Boost Your Portfolio

Obama

Still basking in the glow of 2013’s spectacular 26% gain in the Dow, I sat down on a rock on a high mountain the other day to try and figure out what happened. The last time I saw a move this healthy was back in the nineties, when a perfect trifecta of the internet going mainstream, cheap graphical user interface enabled personal computers, and an easy to use World Wide Web … [Read more...]

January 17, 2014

Global Market Comments January 17, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER SURGES AHEAD WITH A 5.78% 2014 PROFIT), (SPY), (TLT), (XLK), (XLF), (XLE), (AAPL), (SFTBY), (FXY), (AT&T IS DILAING A WRONG NUMBER), (T), (VZ), (NFLX), (AMZN) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK) Financial Select … [Read more...]

Mad Hedge Fund Trader Surges Ahead With a 5.73% January Profit

TA Performance

The red hot performance of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Trade Alert Service has maintained its blistering pace from last year, picking up another 5.73% profit in the first two trading weeks of 2014. The S&P 500 was down during the same period. Since the beginning of 2013, I am up 73.23%. 2013 closed with a total return for followers of 67.45%. Including both open and … [Read more...]

AT&T (T) is Dialing a Wrong Number

Lily Tomlin

AT&T (T), or Telephone as we used to call it on the floor on the New York Stock Exchange when we hand traded its shares, enjoyed a nice little 50-cent pop yesterday, to $34, only the second day it managed to rise this year. The move comes after a federal appeals court in Washington DC ruled that the FCC exceeded its authority when it told Verizon Communication (VZ) that … [Read more...]

January 16, 2014

Global Market Comments January 16, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (CASHING IN ON APPLE), (AAPL) (BECOME MY FACEBOOK FRIEND), (OIL ISN’T WHAT IT USED TO BE), (USO), (DIG), (DUG) United States Oil (USO) ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas (DIG) ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas (DUG) … [Read more...]

Cashing In on Apple

apple-1

Apple (AAPL) has delivered again, choosing the expiration week of my January, 2014 $490-$520 bull call spread to take forward their gigantic joint venture with China Mobile (CHL), far and away the world’s largest phone company. Expect to see video of long lines forming at Apple stores throughout china. This is always good for the share price. This assures that the spread … [Read more...]

January 15, 2014

Global Market Comments January 15, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (INVESTORS WILL WIN THE ETF PRICE WAR), (BIDDING FOR THE STARS), (SPX), (INDU), (THE DEATH OF THE MUTUAL FUND), (TESTIMONIAL) S&P 500 Index (SPX) Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (INDU) … [Read more...]

Investors Will Win the ETF Price War

Hannibal Lecter

Many hedge fund traders are unhappy about the current near monopoly enjoyed by the top three ETF issuers, Black Rock, State Street, and Vanguard, which control 80% of the market. At last count there were more than 4,800 ETF’s that were capitalized at $2.1 trillion. The result has been grasping management fees, exorbitant expense ratios, and poor structural designs, which … [Read more...]

The Death of the Mutual Fund

Downsizing poster

ETF’s are much more attractive than mutual fund competitors, with their notoriously bloated expenses and spendthrift marketing costs. You can’t miss those glitzy, overproduced, big budget ads on TV for a multitude of mutual fund families. You know, the ones with the senior couple holding hands walking down the beach into the sunset, the raging bulls, etc.? You are the sucker … [Read more...]

January 14, 2014

Global Market Comments January 14, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THURSDAY FEBRUARY 20 MELBOURNE AUSTRALIA STRATEGY LUNCH), (WHY I’M KEEPING MY BOND SHORTS), (TLT), (TBT), (MUB), (LQD), (JNK), (HYG), (LINE), (ITB), (TESTIMONIAL) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) iShares National AMT-Free Muni Bond (MUB) iShares iBoxx $ … [Read more...]

Thursday, February 20 Melbourne, Australia Lunch Invitation

Melbourne, AU

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Melbourne, Australia on Thursday, February 20, 2014. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. I … [Read more...]

Why I’m Keeping My Bond Shorts

Shorts on Clothes line

The Department of Labor took the punch bowl away from the party on Friday, reporting that the December nonfarm payroll came in at an anemic 74,000. Analyst forecasts had been running in the 200,000-250,000 range. What was even more interesting was that the labor participation rate dropped to a 1978 low, with nearly 400,000 workers disappearing from the rolls. This is what … [Read more...]

January 13, 2013

Global Market Comments January 13, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (SATURDAY FEBRUARY 22 BRISBANE AUSTRALIA STRATEGY LUNCH), (AMERCIA’S DEMOGRAPHIC COLLAPSE AND YOUR STOCK PORTFOLIO) … [Read more...]

January 10, 2014

Global Market Comments January 10, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (FRIDAY FEBRUARY 14 SYDNEY AUSTRALIA STRATEGY LUNCH), (A SPECIAL NOTE ON EXERCISED JANUARY OPTIONS) … [Read more...]

A Special Note on Exercised January Options

There are only 5 trading days left until the equity option expiration on January 17. My short dated January expiration play turned out to be wildly successful, with all of these positions quickly turning profitable. During the two-week December holidays when markets fell asleep, time decay assured that we made money almost every day, and closed us on the year at an all time … [Read more...]

January 9, 2014

Global Market Comments January 9, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (FEBRUARY 12 AUCKLAND NEW ZEALND STRATEGY LUNCH), (MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER CLOSES 2013 WITH 67.45% PROFIT), (AAPL), (XLE), (XLF), (FXY), (TLT), (SFTBY), (GILD) (TESTIMONIAL) Apple Inc. (AAPL) Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) iShares … [Read more...]

Mad Hedge Fund Trader Closes 2013 With 67.45% Profit

TA Performance

The performance of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Trade Alert Service finished 2013 with a total return for followers of 67.45%. Including both open and closed trades, 75 out of the 90 Trade Alerts were profitable, a success rate of 83%. The final month of December alone came in at an eye popping 11.45%. The three-year return is an eye popping 122.5%, compared to a far more … [Read more...]

January 8, 2014

Global Market Comments January 8, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (TEN TIPS FOR SURVIVING A DAY OFF WITH ME), (TESTIMONIAL), (US HEADED TOWARDS ENERGY INDEPENDENCE), (USO), (UNG), (KOL), (XOM), (OXY) United States Oil (USO) United States Natural Gas (UNG) Market Vectors Coal ETF (KOL) Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) … [Read more...]

US Headed Towards Energy Independence

US-Canada Border Map

My inbox was clogged with responses to my “Golden Age” for the 2020’s piece, particularly my forecast that the US was moving towards complete energy independence. This will be the most important change to the global economy for the next 20 years. So I shall go into more depth. The energy research house, Raymond James, put out an estimate this morning that domestic American … [Read more...]

January 7, 2014

Global Market Comments January 7, 2014 Fiat Lux 2014 Annual Asset Class Review FOR PAID SUBSCRIBERS ONLY Featured Trades: (SPX), (QQQ), (XLF), (XLE), (XLI), (XLY), (EEM), (TLT), (TBT), (JNK), (PHB), (HYG), (PCY), (MUB), (HCP) (FXE), (EUO), (FXC), (FXA), (YCS), (FXY), (CYB) (FCX), (VALE), (MOO), (DBA), (MOS), (MON), (AGU), (POT), (PHO), (FIW), (CORN), (WEAT), (SOYB), … [Read more...]

January 6, 2014

Global Market Comments January 6, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trades: MY 20 RULES FOR TRADING … [Read more...]

My 20 Rules for Trading

Caveman

Nothing like starting the New Year with going back to basics and reviewing the rules that worked so well for us in 2013. Call this the refresher course for Trading 101. I usually try to catch three or four trend changes a year, which might generate 50-100 trades, and often come in frenzied bursts. Since I am one of the greatest tightwads that every walked the planet, I … [Read more...]

January 3, 2014

Global Market Comments January 3, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (REPORT FROM THE MATTERHORN SUMMIT) … [Read more...]

Report from the Matterhorn Summit

John Thomas-Matterhorn

From where I stand, the rolling foothills of Northern Italy spread out below me to the south. On my left lie the distinctive peaks of the Dolomite Alps. On my right I can see the massive expanse of Mont Blanc, at 15,781 feet the highest mountain in Europe. I am standing at the summit of the Matterhorn. Knock another item off the bucket list. I have been trying to climb this … [Read more...]

January 2, 2014

Global Market Comments January 2, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (AN EVENING WITH GENERAL DOUGLAS FRASER), (EWZ), (ECH), (GXG), (CU), (CORN), (SOYB), (WEAT), (A COW BASED ECONOMICS LESSON) iShares MSCI Brazil Capped (EWZ) iShares MSCI Chile Capped (ECH) Global X FTSE Colombia 20 ETF (GXG) First Trust ISE Global Copper Index (CU) Teucrium Corn (CORN) Teucrium Wheat … [Read more...]

An Evening with General Douglas Fraser

Douglas Fraser- Gen.

I never cease to be amazed by the intelligence provided me by the US Defense Department, which after the CIA, has the world’s most impressive and insightful economic research team. There are few places a global strategist like me can go to get intelligent, thoughtful forty-year views, and this is one. Wall Street, eat your heart out. Of course, they are planning how to … [Read more...]

A Cow based Economics Lesson:

Cow

SOCIALISM -You have 2 cows. You give one to your neighbor. COMMUNISM -You have 2 cows. The State takes both and gives you some milk. FASCISM -You have 2 cows. The State takes both and sells you some milk. NAZISM -You have 2 cows. The State takes both and shoots you. BUREAUCRATISM -You have 2 cows. The State takes both, shoots one, milks the other, and then throws … [Read more...]

December 31, 2013

Global Market Comments December 31, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE LONG VIEW ON EMERGING MARKETS), (HOW TO AVOID THE PONZI SCHEME TRAP), (MURRAY SAYLE: THE PASSING OF A GIANT IN JOURNALISM), (TESTIMONIAL) … [Read more...]

December 30, 2013

Global Market Comments December 30, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trades: (BE CAREFUL WHO YOU SNITCH ON), (A CONVERSATION WITH THE BOOTS ON THE GROUND), (DINNER WITH JOSEPH STIGLITZ) … [Read more...]

Be Careful Who You Snitch On

Sherron Watkins

Buried in the recently passed Dodd-Frank financial reform bill are massive financial rewards for turning in your crooked boss. The SEC is hoping that multimillion dollar rewards amounting to 10%-30% of sanction amounts will drive a stampede of whistleblowers to their doors with evidence of malfeasance and fraud by their employers. If such rules were in place at the time of … [Read more...]

December 26, 2013

Global Market Comments December 26, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (INDIA IS CATCHING UP WITH CHINA), (PIN), (FXI), (WHO SAYS HEDGE FUNDS AREN’T ADDING VALUE?) (PETER F. DRUCKER ON MANAGEMENT) PowerShares India (PIN) iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) … [Read more...]

India is Catching Up With China

Rickshaw

When I first visited Calcutta in 1976, more than 800,000 people were sleeping on the sidewalks, I was hauled everywhere by a very lean, barefoot rickshaw driver, and drinking the water out of a tap was tantamount to committing suicide. Some 36 years later, and the subcontinent is poised to overtake China's white hot growth rate. My friends at the International Monetary … [Read more...]

December 24, 2013

Global Market Comments December 24, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trades: (A CHRISTMAS STORY), (THE U-HAUL INDICATOR)     … [Read more...]

My Favorite Secret Economic Indicator

lava lamps

It is the end of the school year at the University of California at Berkeley, and the unenviable task of moving my son, a senior, out of his hovel for the holidays fell to me. When I arrived, I was stunned to find nothing less than a war zone. Both sides of every street were lined with mountains of trash, the unwanted flotsam and jetsam cast aside by departing students. … [Read more...]

December 23, 2013

Global Market Comments December 23, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE ONE BRIGHT SPOT IN REAL ESTATE), (A SHORT HISTORY OF HEDGE FUNDS), (THE POPULATION BOMB ECHOES), (POT), (MOS), (AGU), (THANK GOODNESS I DON’T LIVE IN SWEDEN), (EWD) Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (POT) The Mosaic Company (MOS) Agrium Inc. (AGU) iShares MSCI Sweden (EWD) … [Read more...]

December 20, 2013

Global Market Comments December 20, 2013 Fiat Lux SPECIAL END OF YEAR ISSUE Featured Trades: (GO LONG CHRISTMAS CHEER AND HOT BUTTERED RUM), (A SPECIAL NOTE ON EXERCISED OPTIONS) … [Read more...]

December 19, 2013

Global Market Comments December 19, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER PROFIT HITS 63%), (SPY), (TLT), (FXY), (SFTBY), (AAPL), (XLF), (I WAS WRONG….BUT IT DIDN’T MATTER) (A DIFFERENT VIEW OF THE US) (THE STRUCTURAL BEAR CASE FOR TREASURY BONDS), (TLT), (TBT) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen … [Read more...]

Mad Hedge Fund Trader Profit Hits 63%

TA Performance

The performance of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Trade Alert Service is still going ballistic, reaching the heady height of 63.08% for the year. Including both open and closed trades, 24 out of the last 26 consecutive Trade Alerts have been profitable. The results so far in December are up a stunning +7.04. The three-year return is an eye popping 118%, compared to a far more … [Read more...]

I was Wrong…But it Didn’t Matter

Money Printing

Ben Bernanke finally did the deed. He tapered his quantitative easing program, from $85 to $75 billion a month. I thought he would wait until next month for incoming Fed governor Janet Yellen to take the helm, and the responsibility. It was not to be. The good news for followers of my Trade Alert Service was that it didn’t matter. $85 or $75 billion is really six of one and … [Read more...]

December 18, 2013

Global Market Comments December 18, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE RECEPTION THAT THE STARS FELL UPON), (NLR), (CCJ), (CORN), (WEAT), (SOYB), (DBA), (OIL ISN’T WHAT IT USED TO BE), (USO), (TAKING A BITE OUT OF STEALTH INFLATION), (SGG), (WEAT) Market Vectors Uranium+Nuclear Enrgy ETF (NLR) Cameco Corporation (CCJ) Teucrium Corn (CORN) Teucrium Wheat … [Read more...]

Oil Isn’t What It Used to Be

Horse Drawn Car

Virtually every analyst has been puzzled by the seeming immunity of stock markets to high oil prices this year. In fact, stocks and crude have been tracking almost one to one on the upside. The charts below a friend at JP Morgan sent me go a long way towards explaining this apparent dichotomy. The first shows the number of barrels of oil needed to generate a unit of GDP, … [Read more...]

December 17, 2013

Global Market Comments December 17, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE RISING DRUMBEAT FOR ALIBABA), (SFTBY), (S), (TMUS), (T), (RAMPANT WAGE INFLATION STRIKES CHINA), (FXI) (CHECK OUT OBAMA’S LATEST STIMULUS PLAN), (TESTIMONIAL) SoftBank Corp. (SFTBY) Sprint Corporation (S) T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) AT&T, Inc. (T) iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) … [Read more...]

The Rising Drumbeat for Alibaba

Jack Ma Alibaba

Rumors hit the market Friday that Sprint (S) will mount a $20 billion takeover bid for T-Mobile (TMUS) in early January. The news caused a late day kerfluffle on what would otherwise have been a slow December pre holiday Friday. The Shares of both companies immediately jumped 10%, which left many analysts scratching their heads. Normally, the shares of the acquirer falls … [Read more...]

Rampant Wage Inflation Strikes China

Chinese Men

I rely on hundreds of 'moles' around the world whose job it is to watch a single, but important indicator for the world economy. One of them checks for me the want ads in the manufacturing mega city of Shenzhen, China, and what he told me last week was alarming. Wage demands by Chinese workers have been skyrocketing this year. The biggest increases have been at the low end … [Read more...]

Check Out Obama’s Latest Stimulus Package

Obama-1

Was there is no limit to how far President Obama was willing to go to stimulate the economy and reassure his election? So I had to be amused when a friend sent me a link to his proposal. Warning: the source is a college humor website, so I would take it with so many grains of salt. For a good laugh, click here at … [Read more...]

December 16, 2013

Global Market Comments December 16, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (REPORT FROM THE FROZEN WASTELANDS OF THE WEST) … [Read more...]

Report from the Frozen Wastelands of the West

Sierras

I am writing this from a High Sierra peak at 12,000 feet in the dead of winter. It is 15 degrees and the wind is gusting at 70 miles an hour, turning by backpack into a sail and practically blowing me off the mountain. Over the side, the next stop is 1,000 feet below. I am thirsty, but the water in my canteen is frozen solid. I had planned to follow my tracks in the snow … [Read more...]

December 13, 2013

Global Market Comments December 13, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (DECEMBER 18 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (MY MARKET TAKE FOR THE REST OF 2013), (DOUBLING UP ON SOFTBANK), (SFTBY) (SPY), (XLF), (TLT), (FXY), (SFTBY), (AAPL), (TESTIMONIAL) SoftBank Corp. (SFTBY) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss the December 18 Global Strategy Webinar

Robin Williams

My next global strategy webinar will be held on Wednesday, December 18 at 12:00 PM EST. This is the last webinar of 2013! I’ll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, precious metal, and real estate. The goal is to find the cheapest assets in the world to buy, the most expensive to sell short, and the appropriate securities with which to … [Read more...]

My Market Take for the Rest of 2014

Zephyr

I can’t believe how fast the year has gone by. It seems like only yesterday that I was riding the transcontinental railroad from Chicago to San Francisco, writing my 2013 All Asset Class Review. Now 2014 is at our doorstep. As usual, the market has got it all wrong. There is not going to be a taper by the Federal Reserve next week. If there is, it will be only $5-$10 … [Read more...]

Doubling Up on Softbank

Masayoshi Son

I have always been a big fan of buying a dollar for 30 cents. That appears to be the opportunity now presented by the Japanese software giant, Softbank (SFTBY). This gorilla of the Internet space was founded and run by my old friend, Masayoshi Son, who many refer to as a combination of the Jeff Bezos and the Bill Gates of Japan. I have known Mas, as his friends call him, for … [Read more...]

December 12, 2013

Global Market Comments December 12, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (IS THIS THE BIG TRADE OF 2014?), (GLD), (SLV), ($SSEC), (EEM), (FXI), (JJC), (DBA), (CORN), (CU), (USO), (KOL), (A CHRISTMAS DONATION FOR THE WORTHIEST OF CAUSES) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) iShares Silver Trust (SLV) Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index ($SSEC) iShares MSCI Emerging Markets … [Read more...]

A Christmas Donation for the Worthiest of Causes

I follow a broad range of unconventional, but highly useful leading economic indicators that gives me a decisive edge when predicting the future direction of global financial markets. One of them has started flashing a warning sign. I fund an orphanage in remote Zhanjiang, in China’s southern Guangdong province, near Hainan Island called The Zhanjiang Kids Organization that … [Read more...]

December 11, 2013

Global Market Comments December 11, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE BIPOLAR ECONOMY), (SAY GOODBYE TO YOUR FAVORITE TEACHER), (RAILROADS ARE BREAKING OUT ALL OVER), (UNP), (CSX), (NSC), (CP), (ACI) Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) CSX Corp. (CSX) Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) Canadian Pacific Railway Limited (CP) Arch Coal Inc. (ACI) … [Read more...]

The Bipolar Economy

Caveat Emptor

Corporate earnings are up big! Great! Buy! No wait! The economy is going down the toilet! Sell! Buy! Sell! Buy! Sell! Help! Anyone would be forgiven for thinking that the stock market has become bipolar. There is, in fact, an explanation for this madness. According to the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis, the answer is that corporate profits accounts for … [Read more...]

Say Goodbye to Your Favorite Teacher

Teacher

Don’t bother taking an apple to school to give your favorite teacher, unless you want to leave it in front of a machine. The schoolteacher is about to join the sorry ranks of the service station attendant, the elevator operator, and the telephone operators whose professions have been rendered useless by technology. The next big social trend in this country will be to replace … [Read more...]

December 10, 2013

Global Market Comments December 10, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (GOTTA LOVE THAT NOVEMBER NONFARM PAYROLL), (MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER PROFIT SPURTS TO 59%), (SPY), (SFTBY), (AAPL), (TLT), (FXY) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) SoftBank Corp. (SFTBY) Apple Inc. (AAPL) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) … [Read more...]

Gotta Love That November Nonfarm Payroll

Ben Bernanke - Cartoon

The November nonfarm payroll blew out to the upside once again, with 203,000 souls landing jobs for the month. Previous months were substantially revised up. The headline unemployment rate made a whopping great fall from 7.3% to 7.0%, the sharpest drop in years. The much feared collapse in the jobs market triggered by the October Washington shut down was dead on arrival. … [Read more...]

Mad Hedge Fund Trader Profit Spurts to 59%

TA Performance

The performance of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Trade Alert Service is still going ballistic, reaching the heady height of 59% for the year. I know some of your saw your faith challenged when, at one point, the stock market was looking at five consecutive down days last week. The red ink all disappeared when the November nonfarm payroll delivered shockingly positive numbers, … [Read more...]

December 9, 2013

Global Market Comments December 9, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (LESSONS FROM THE AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR), (FXA), (EWA), (HANGING OUT WITH THE WOZ), (AAPL), (TESTIMONIAL) CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust (FXA) iShares MSCI Australia (EWA) Apple Inc. (AAPL) … [Read more...]

Lessons from the Australian dollar

Kangaroo - Car

Last month, I shot out a Trade Alert to buy the Currency Shares Australian Dollar Trust (FXA) December, 2013 $89-$91 bull call spread that turned immediately profitable. A mere four trading days later I sold out, after the (FXA) rallied an impressive $1.2, adding 0.84% to the value of my model trading portfolio. That turned out to be the absolute top of the move. This is not … [Read more...]

December 6, 2013

Global Market Comments December 6, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE BOND CRASH HAS ONLY JUST STARTED), ($TNX), (TLT), (TBT), (INDIA VS CHINA), (FXI), (PIN), (INP), (TTM) 10-Year Treasury Note ($TNX) iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond (TLT) ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) PowerShares India (PIN) iPath MSCI India Index … [Read more...]

India is Catching Up With China

Rickshaw

When I first visited Calcutta in 1976, more than 800,000 people were sleeping on the sidewalks, I was hauled everywhere by a very lean, barefoot rickshaw driver, and drinking the water out of a tap was tantamount to committing suicide. Some 36 years later, and the subcontinent is poised to overtake China's white hot growth rate. My friends at the International Monetary Fund … [Read more...]