Global Market Comments February 27, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MARCH 4 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (RIGHT SIZING YOUR TRADING), (“THE OPENING BELL WITH JIM PARKER”) … [Read more...]
Don’t Miss the March 4 Global Strategy Webinar
My next global strategy webinar will be held on Wednesday, March 4 at 12:00 PM EST. Mad Day Trader, Jim Parker, will be my willing co-conspirator to provide his expert short term trading ideas and comment in general on the markets as a whole. I’ll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, precious metal, and real estate. The goal is to find … [Read more...]
Right Sizing Your Trading
I can’t tell you how many times I have been woken up in the middle of the night by an investor who was sleepless over a position that was going the wrong way. Gold was down $50, the Euro was spiking two cents, or the stock market was enduring one of its periodic heart attacks. Of course, my answer is always the same. Cut your position in half. If your position is so large … [Read more...]
The Opening Bell with Jim Parker
The Opening Bell with Jim Parker Well, you asked for it, and now it is here. You were looking for that extra edge in reading and trading the markets? Well, now it is here, The Opening Bell with Jim Parker. With The Opening Bell, Jim Parker will give an early read on where each day’s market action will take place. He will focus on a dozen or so names where traders are most … [Read more...]
February 27, 2015 – Quote of the Day
“The next leg of the bull market is going to have to be a fundamental leg, not a liquidity leg, and investors are in a little bit of a malaise trying to figure that out,” said Anthony Scaramucci of Skybridge Capital. … [Read more...]
February 26, 2015
Global Market CommentsFebruary 26, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(HOW HIGH IS HIGH?),(SPY), (QQQ), (IWM), (USO), (TLT), (VIX),(ORDER EXECUTION 101) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ)iShares Russell 2000 (IWM)United States Oil ETF (USO)iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX) … [Read more...]
How High is High?
Those who read my New Year predictions already know that my target for the S&P 500 at the end of 2015 is a range of 2,288-2,392, or up 10%-15%. When I made that forecast, I was heaped with abuse, derision and scorn, as usual. Perma bears and market haters never miss an opportunity to loose their slings and arrows against those who have been bullish (read accurate), … [Read more...]
Order Execution 101
Given the recent difficulty in placing orders in this tedious, illiquid market, I have been inundated with requests for how to execute orders. So I thought I’d take some time today to expound on the basics of order execution 101. There are three basic ways to intelligently get an order into the market: 1) The No Brainer Average In. Buy half at the receipt of the Trade Alert … [Read more...]
February 26, 2015 – Quote of the Day
“Getting information off the internet is akin to trying to sweep back the ocean with a broom,” said Ray Kurzweil, director of engineering at Google. … [Read more...]
February 25, 2015
Global Market CommentsFebruary 25, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(WHY SOLAR STOCKS ARE CATCHING ON FIRE),(FSLR), (SPWR), (SCTY),(INDIA IS CATCHING UP WITH CHINA),(TESTIMONIAL) First Solar, Inc. (FSLR)SunPower Corporation (SPWR)SolarCity Corporation (SCTY) … [Read more...]
Why Solar Stocks are Catching on Fire
Long time solar observers were stunned by the news that First Solar (FSLR) and Sunpower (SPWR) were teaming up to create a joint venture. The stock market certainly got the message. Sunpower rocketed by 18%, while First Solar soared by 17%. Imagine Macy’s merging with Gimbels, Coke tying up with Pepsi or the Los Angeles Dodgers teaming up with the San Francisco Giants? It’s … [Read more...]
India is Catching Up With China
When I first visited Calcutta in 1976, more than 800,000 people were sleeping on the sidewalks, I was hauled everywhere by a very lean, barefoot rickshaw driver, and drinking the water out of a tap was tantamount to committing suicide. Aggressive population control measures where underway and strict quotas were in force. Everyone was taking their grandmother in to get … [Read more...]
Testimonial
I bought Theravance Inc. (THRX) call options at 20 cents and sold them for 95 cents. Thank Jim Parker for the lotto win. James Sydney, Australia … [Read more...]
February 25, 2015 – Quote of the Day
“The last time oil stocks were this high, Gandhi was on the cover of Time Magazine and most Germans thought Hitler was clown. IT was 1930.” said Stephen Schork of the Schork Report. … [Read more...]
February 24, 2015
Global Market CommentsFebruary 24, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(DIPPING MY TOES BACK INTO GOLD),(GLD), (SLV), (GDX), (ABX), (PALL)(THE GAME CHANGER IN INDIA),(INP), (PIN), (EPI), (EEM), (CEW), (ELD),(USO), (KOL), (CU), (GLD) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)iShares Silver Trust (SLV)Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX)ETFS Physical Palladium (PALL)iPath … [Read more...]
Dipping My Toes Back Into Gold
One of my best calls of 2014 was to plead with readers to avoid gold like the plague, periodically dipping in on the short side only. Gold certainly delivered disappointment in spades, falling 4%, while the US stocks, bonds and the dollar were on fire. The barbarous relic has been in a bear market since it peaked at $1,922 an ounce at the end of August, 2011. Gold shares have … [Read more...]
The Game Changer in India
So far in 2015 the Indian stock market has handily beaten that of the US, by 10.6% compared to 5.3%. “The India election result is the biggest development to affect emerging markets over the last 30 years.” That is what retired chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management and originator of the “BRIC” term, Jim O’Neal, told me last week. Indeed, the stunning news has sent long … [Read more...]
February 12, 2014 – Quote of the Day
“China is still the 800 pound gorilla. Maybe it’s no longer going to grow at 10%, but it’s still going to grow at a faster rate than Europe or the US,” said Edwin Rodriguez Jr., the biggest financial advisor in Louisiana, with $2.8 billion in assets. … [Read more...]
February 23, 2015
Global Market Comments February 23, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE SPRING IN CISCO’S SYSTEM’S STEP), (CSCO), (REPORT ON THE 6th ANNUAL SKYBRIDGE ALTERNATIVES CONFERENCE) Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) … [Read more...]
The Spring in Cisco’s System’s Step
I thought I noticed a spring in the step of Cisco Systems (CSCO) CEO John Chambers when he strutted out on TV to announce earnings last week. Revenue came in just shy of $12 billion, a 7% improvement over fiscal 2014's Q2, and earnings per share really popped -- up 70% on a GAAP basis (including one-time items) to $2.4 billion from the prior year's "paltry" $1.4 billion. … [Read more...]
Report on the 6th Annual SkyBridge Alternatives (SALT) Conference
Once again, I am writing to you from the poolside cabana B-2 at the Bellagio Hotel in Las Vegas. It is a baking hot 100 degrees in the shade and the air is bone-dry, so I’m draining my third rum punch for the day. The days when I risked getting dragged out to the parking lot to get my hands broken with a hammer for card counting at blackjack have long since passed, so I am … [Read more...]
February 23, 2015 – Quote of the Day
“Vision without execution is just hallucination.” said Thomas Edison. … [Read more...]
February 20, 2015
Global Market CommentsFebruary 20, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(A NOTE ON THE FRIDAY OPTIONS EXPIRATION),(FXY), (GILD), (SPY), (VIX),(TLT), (IWM), (QQQ), (SCTY), (USO), (GLD), (AN EVENING WITH TEXAS GOVERNOR RICK PERRY), (LNG), (UNG), (TSLA) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY)Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD)SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX)iShares 20+ Year … [Read more...]
A Note on the Friday Options Expiration
We have several options positions that expire on Friday, and I just want to explain to the newbies how to best maximize their profits. These include: The Currency Shares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) February $84-$87 vertical bear put spread The Gilead Sciences (GILD) February $87.50-$92.50 vertical bull call spread The S&P 500 (SPY) February $199-$202 vertical bull call … [Read more...]
An Evening with Texas Governor Rick Perry
As a precondition to joining a dinner with Texas governor, Rick Perry, I had to promise many things. I was not allowed to bring up the fact that he shoots coyotes while jogging. I couldn’t mention statistics proving that 70% of the jobs created in his state during his 12-year tenure as governor were government ones, not private. I was not even permitted to ask what would have … [Read more...]
February 20, 2015 – Quote of the Day
“…at last the lake burst upon us—a noble sheet of blue water…walled in by a rim of snow-clad mountain peaks...As it lay there with the shadows of the mountains brilliantly photographed upon its still surface I thought it must surely be the fairest picture the whole earth affords.” said the American writer, Mark Twain, on his first sight of Lake Tahoe in 1861, pictured below. … [Read more...]
February 19, 2015
Global Market CommentsFebruary 19, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(THE BEST IS YET TO COME IN CRUDE),(USO), (XOM), (COP), (OXY),(AN EVENING WITH DAVID TEPPER) United States Oil ETF (USO)Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)ConocoPhillips (COP)Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) … [Read more...]
The Best is yet to Come in Crude
For the last few months, I have leapt off my biweekly global strategy webinars to check the weekly crude inventories announced minutes before. This week’s figures absolutely blew me away. The American Petroleum Institute reported that crude stocks rose a staggering 14.3 million barrels over the past week. This is the biggest weekly build that I can remember after covering the … [Read more...]
An Evening with David Tepper
“There is a time to make money, and a time to not lose money. This is one of those times.” That was the insightful gem I came away with after listening to David Tepper speak at the 7th annual SALT Alternative Investment Conference in Las Vegas Nevada. Tepper continued, opining that the markets are “dangerous” here, and that he was “nervous.” “It was easy to buy stocks (SPY), … [Read more...]
February 19, 2015 – Quote of the Day
“I want staffers who are so loyal that they will kiss my ass in Macy’s front window and tell everyone it smells like roses,” said the late president, Lyndon Baines Johnson, the model for the character, Francis Underwood, in the hit cable TV series House of Cards. … [Read more...]
February 18, 2015
Global Market Comments February 18, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (AN AFTERNOON WITH GENERAL COLIN POWEL) … [Read more...]
An Afternoon with General Colin Powell
I have long had enormous respect for General Colin Powell. My commanding four star general when I was flying errands for the Marine Corps. during Desert Storm, he fights my kind of war; they’re very short, three days in the case of desert storm, and we won. And topping everything else, the Kuwaitis paid for it all. It was the best training exercise I ever enjoyed. General … [Read more...]
February 18, 2015 – Quote of the Day
“Great entrepreneurs see patterns, where others see chaos.” said Geoff Yang of venture capital firm Redpoint. … [Read more...]
February 17, 2015
Global Market CommentsFebruary 17, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(FRIDAY, APRIL 3 HONOLULU, HAWAII STRATEGY LUNCHEON),(HOW FAR WILL BIOTECH RUN?),(GILD), (IBB) Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD)iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) … [Read more...]
Friday April 3 Honolulu, Hawaii Global Strategy Luncheon
Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Honolulu, Hawaii on Friday, April 3, 2015. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals and real estate. And to … [Read more...]
How Far Will Biotech Run?
Long-term readers of this letter have prospered mightily from my addiction to biotech stocks in recent years, one of the most reliably top performing sectors in the stock market. But have we visited the well one time too many times? Is biotech turning into a bubble that will eventually deliver the same grievous outcome of other past bubbles? Not yet. Still, one has to ask … [Read more...]
February 17, 2015 – Quote of the Day
“We need to have more faith in the central bank’s ability to print money”, said Scott Minerd, of Guggenheim Partners. … [Read more...]
February 16, 2015
Global Market CommentsFebruary 16, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(FEBRUARY 18 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),(WHY ARE BOND YIELDS SO LOW?)(TLT), (TBT), (LQD), (MUB), (LINE), (ELD),(QQQ), (UUP), (EEM), (DBA)(BRING BACK THE UPTICK RULE!) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)iShares iBoxx $ Invst Grade Crp Bond (LQD)iShares National AMT-Free … [Read more...]
Bring Back the Uptick Rule!
When the Dow crashed 514 points in a single day a few years ago, the market lost a staggering $850 billion in market capitalization. High frequency traders were possibly responsible for half of this move, but generated a mere $65 million in profits, some 7/1,000’s of a percent of the total loss. Are market authorities and regulators being penny wise, but pound foolish? The … [Read more...]
February 16, 2015 – Quote of the Day
“Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic, said Arthur C. Clark, futurologist and author of 2001: A Space Odyssey. … [Read more...]
February 13, 2015
Global Market CommentsFebruary 13, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(FEBRUARY 18 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),(THE CASE FOR EUROPE),(FXE), (HEDJ), (RSX), (GREK), (GLD), (TLT), (SPY)(OPTIONS FOR THE BEGINNER) CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity ETF (HEDJ)Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX)Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (GREK)SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)iShares 20+ Year … [Read more...]
The Case for Europe
I have been to Greece many times over the past 45 years, and I’ll tell you that I just love the place. The beaches are perfect, the Ouzo wine enticing, and I’ll never say “No” to a good moussaka. However, I don’t let Greece dictate my investment strategy. Greece, in fact, accounts for less than 2% of Europe’s GDP. It is not a storm in a teacup that is going on there, but a … [Read more...]
Options for the Beginner
I strongly urge readers of this letter to log on to Amazon and by a copy of Options for the Beginner and Beyond by W. Edward Olmstead. Options contracts offer investors a wonderful instrument for minimizing risk, while maximizing the upside, and I am going to recommend many more such strategies in the future. So, if you want to have the slightest idea of what I am talking … [Read more...]
February 13, 2015 – Quote of the Day
“Homo Sapiens, the first truly free species, is about to decommission the natural selection, the force that made us,” said E.O. Wilson, a Harvard University biology professor. … [Read more...]
February 12, 2015
Global Market CommentsFebruary 12, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(HITTING TWO HOME RUNS IN ONE DAY),(FXY), (GILD),(THE NEW COLD WAR),(THE HISTORY OF TECHNOLOGY) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY)Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD) … [Read more...]
Hitting Two Home Runs in One Day
Those of you who are paid subscribers have the good fortune of waking up to a bounty of riches this morning. Both Gilead Sciences (GILD) and the Japanese yen (FXY) have made gap moves in your favor overnight. Your long position in (GILD) saw a nice little $2 pop to the upside, and your short in the (FXY) just got whacked in the knees, down a full $1. As a result, the Trade … [Read more...]
The New Cold War
My friend, Ian Bremmer of the Eurasia Group, a global risk analyst who I regularly follow, has published an outstanding book entitled The End of the Free Markets: Who Wins the War Between States and Corporations. I find this highly depressing, as it takes me as long to read one of Ian’s books as it takes him to write another one. To read a review of his highly insightful tome … [Read more...]
The History of Technology
I have just finished leisurely reading Tom Standage’s book The Victorian Internet: The Remarkable Story of the Telegraph and the Nineteenth Century On-Line Pioneers. Standage discusses the creation and development of the telegraph system and how it revolutionized communication in the nineteenth century. The book claims that Modern Internet users are in many ways the heirs of … [Read more...]
February 12, 2015 – Quote of the Day
“Go to Heaven for the climate. Go to Hell for the company,” said American humorist, Mark Twain. … [Read more...]
February 11, 2015
Global Market Comments February 11, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (WHO THE GRAND NICARAGUA CANAL HAS WORRIED), (SCAM OF THE MONTH) … [Read more...]
Who the Grand Nicaragua Canal Has Worried
Multinationals, Global development economists and armchair military strategists are all watching with great interest China’s plans to build a Grand Nicaragua Canal. The government in Managua inked a deal with a Hong Kong based consortium in 2013, led by telecommunications magnate Wang Jing, and broke ground on a minor access road on December 22. But that is a very long way … [Read more...]
Scam of the Month
Having trouble raising capital for your new hedge fund? Just list Warren Buffet as your “Honorary Chairman.” That’s what California prison guard Ottoniel Medrano did. To help his marketing efforts, he also claimed that he had $4.8 billion in assets under management as well as massive real estate holdings somewhere in Asia. Medrano’s International Realty Holdings managed to … [Read more...]
February 11, 2015 – Quote of the Day
“A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity, and optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” said the late British Prime Minister, Winston Churchill. … [Read more...]
February 10, 2015
Global Market CommentsFebruary 10, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(WHY THE JANUARY NONFARM PAYROLL WAS A BIG DEAL),(IWM), (DXJ), (HEDJ), (FXE), (FXY),(THE BIPOLAR ECONOMY),(TESTIMONIAL) iShares Russell 2000 (IWM)WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity ETF (DXJ)WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity ETF (HEDJ)CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY) … [Read more...]
Why the January Nonfarm Payroll Was a Big Deal
Economists were blown away by the January nonfarm payroll numbers, announced on Friday. Some 257,000 jobs were added the previous month, holding the headline unemployment figure at 5.7%. Far more important were the revisions for earlier months, which saw December increased to a robust 329,000 and November bumped up to a breathtaking 423,000. These numbers are almost back to … [Read more...]
The Bipolar Economy
Corporate earnings are up big! Buy! No wait! The economy is going down the toilet! Sell! Buy! Sell! Buy! Sell! Help!! Anyone would be forgiven for thinking that the stock market has become bipolar. According to the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis, the answer is that corporate profits accounts for only a small part of the economy. Using the income method of … [Read more...]
Testimonial
I cannot give higher marks to John's style of approaching the market. My wife has learned so much from him that we are actually having conversations about the global economy. Wow! You will learn money management, the concept of risk versus reward, and how to take advantage of trades that are worth taking. Thanks John! Robert B. New York … [Read more...]
February 10, 2015 – Quote of the Day
"Where a calculator on the Eniac is equipped with 18,000 tubes and weighs 30 tons, computers in the future may have only 1,000 vacuum tubes, and weigh 1.5 tons." said Popular Mechanics magazine in 1949. … [Read more...]
February 9, 2015
Global Market CommentsFebruary 9, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(THE 12 NEW TRADING RULES FOR 2015),(AN ENVIRONMENTAL ACTIVISTS TAKE ON THE MARKETS),(DBA), (MOO), (PHO), (FIW)(FRIDAY, APRIL 3 HONOLULU, HAWAII STRATEGY LUNCHEON) PowerShares DB Agriculture ETF (DBA)Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO)PowerShares Water Resources ETF (PHO)First Trust ISE Water ETF (FIW) … [Read more...]
The 12 New Trading Rules for 2015
1) Dump all hubris, pretentions and stubbornness. It will only cost you money. 2) The market is always right, even if all the prices appear wrong. 3) Only buy the puke outs and sell the euphoria. Do anything in the middle, and you will get whipsawed. 4) Outright calls and puts are offering a better risk/reward right now than bull and bear vertical call and put spreads, which … [Read more...]
An Environmental Activist’s Take on the Markets
I spent an evening with Lester Brown, president of the Earth Policy Institute and a winner of the coveted MacArthur Prize, for some long-term thinking about the environment and its investment implications. Global warming is causing the melting of ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, glaciers in the Himalayas and the Sierra snowpack. Water tables are falling and fossil … [Read more...]
February 9, 2015 – Quote of the Day
“Most inventions fail because the timing is wrong. Inventing is a lot like surfing. You have to anticipate and catch the wave just at the right moment,” said computer scientist and futurologist, Ray Kurzweil. … [Read more...]
February 6, 2015
Global Market Comments February 6, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (SHOPPING FOR A NEW BROKER) … [Read more...]
Shopping for a New Broker
Many of you have figured out by now that I like to call my paid subscribers once a year, ask how the service is working for them, and how to improve it. Most of you are shocked that I take the time and trouble to do this. Many ask if, in fact, I am a robot. But the feedback I get is worth it. And many of you are downright fascinating people. After all, you did make one of the … [Read more...]
February 6, 2015 – Quote of the Day
“You make the most money when things go from terrible to only bad,” said Tim Seymour of emerging market hedge fund, Triogem Asset Management. … [Read more...]
February 5, 2015
Global Market CommentsFebruary 5, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(TRADING DEVOID OF THE THOUGHT PROCESS),(SPY), (INDU), (TLT), (USO),(GOING BACK INTO GILEAD SCINECES), (GILD),(ON EXECUTING TRADE ALERTS) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU)iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)United States Oil ETF (USO)Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD) … [Read more...]
Trading Devoid of the Thought Process
The second the day traders covered their last short in a rising market today, the European Central Bank announced that the Greek debt negotiations may not be successful. The Dow Average fell 200 points, bonds jumped a full point and oil added to its 8% decline. Welcome to The Great Meat Grinder of 2015. It seems that all anyone has to do is to blow their nose, and high … [Read more...]
Going Back Into Gilead Sciences
This is a stock that could double by the end of 2015. Buy a great performing stock in the top performing sector on a 10% dip. The stock has over reacted to an earnings report that was fantastic; but carried conservative forward guidance, based on expected future pricing pressure on its blockbuster Hepatitis C drugs, Sovaldi and Harvini. I am giving a nod to the current high … [Read more...]
On Executing Trade Alerts
From time to time I receive an email from a subscriber telling me that they are unable to get executions on trade alerts that are as good as the ones I get. There are several possible reasons for this: 1) Markets move, sometimes quite dramatically so. 2) Your Trade Alert email was hung up on your local provider’s server, getting it to you late. This is a function of your … [Read more...]
February 5, 2015 – Quote of the Day
“Every attempt to make war easy and safe will result in humiliation and disaster,” said the Civil War General, William T. Sherman. … [Read more...]
February 4, 2015
Global Market CommentsFebruary 4, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(SOLAR STOCKS GET A JOLT),(SCTY), (SUNE), (SPWR), (TAN),(IS THE REAL ESTATE MARKET CATCHING COLD?),(ITB), (KBE) SolarCity Corporation (SCTY)SunEdison, Inc. (SUNE)SunPower Corporation (SPWR)Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN)iShares US Home Construction (ITB)SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) … [Read more...]
Solar Stocks Get a Jolt
The blockbuster for me in President Obama’s budget speech on Monday was his suggestion that the 30% alternative energy investment tax credit be made permanent. All solar stocks, including front-runners Solar City (SCTY), Sun Edison (SUNE), and SunPower (SPWR), rocketed on the news. Now slated to expire at the end of 2017, the tax break is credited with igniting a solar … [Read more...]
Is the Real Estate Market Catching Cold?
I used to begin my pieces about residential real estate talking about the broker I found hanging from the showerhead at an open house. That didn’t really happen. But from 2008-2012 conditions were so dire that it could have. That is clearly not the case any more. The market has been on fire for the past three years. Private equity firms put a floor under the markets by … [Read more...]
February 4, 2015 – Quote of the Day
“Some People spend an entire lifetime wondering if they’ve made a difference. The Marines don’t have that problem,” said the late President, Ronald Reagan. … [Read more...]
February 3, 2015
Global Market CommentsFebruary 3, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(FEBRUARY 4 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),(HOW TO LOSE MONEY),(LINE), (USO),(THE MARKET’S TECHNICAL OUTLOOK IS TERRIBLE),(SPY), (QQQ), (IWM), (T), (AA), (FXY),(TESTIMONIAL) Linn Energy, LLC (LINE)United States Oil ETF (USO)SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ)iShares Russell 2000 (IWM)AT&T, … [Read more...]
How to Lose Money
I’m really glad I watched the Super Bowl yesterday. Not only was it a great warm-up for next year’s championship game, which will be in my hometown of San Francisco. I also witnessed the worst coaching call in football history. The Seattle Seahawks had the game in the bag. All they had to do was move the ball one foot over two tries at the goal line. Instead, they passed? Too … [Read more...]
The Market’s Technical Outlook is Terrible
At yesterday morning’s opening bell, we were greeted with the unmistakable evidence the stock market is technically breaking down. The Dow Average has broken its three-year upward sloping trend line. Market leading sectors, like Consumer Discretionary and Financials have all put in eminently convincing “Head and Shoulders” tops (click here). More distressingly, the head and … [Read more...]
Testimonial
Really enjoyed the Chicago lunch with you, Jim and the guys from Toronto. My trading improved just from the two-hour lunch seminar. Looking forward to coming in the spring if you do another Chicago lunch. Thanks, Rich Detroit, Michigan … [Read more...]
February 3, 2015 – Quote of the Day
"When you develop your opinions on the basis of weak evidence, you will have difficulty interpreting subsequent information that contradicts these opinions, even if this new information is obviously more accurate.” said Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder. … [Read more...]
February 2, 2015
Global Market CommentsFebruary 2, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(THE GREAT AMERICAN ROT IS ENDING),(SPY), (TLT), (FXY), (FXE), (USO) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY)CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)United States Oil ETF (USO) … [Read more...]
The Great American Rot is Ending
Those of a certain age can’t help but remember that things for the US went to hell in a hand basket after 1963. That’s when President John F. Kennedy was assassinated, heralding decades of turmoil. Race riots exploded everywhere. The Vietnam War ramped up out of control, taking 60,000 lives, and destroying the nation’s finances. Nixon took the US off the gold standard. Two … [Read more...]
February 2, 2015 – Quote of the Day
“All we need to know about crude right now is that we have it coming out of our ears, both here and in the Middle East, and that’s why it’s headed to $40,” said Scott Nations, president of the options trading firm, NationsShares. … [Read more...]
January 30, 2015
Global Market CommentsJanuary 30, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(FEBRUARY 4 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),(SIGN UP NOW FOR TEXT MESSAGING OF TRADE ALERTS),(QCOM), (SPY),(THE CHINA VIEW FROM 30,000 FEET)(FXI), (DBC), (DYY), (DBA), (PHO) QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM)SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)iShares China Large-Cap (FXI)PowerShares DB Commodity Tracking ETF (DBC)PowerShares DB … [Read more...]
Sign Up Now for Text Messaging of Trade Alerts
I know I ran this story only ten days ago, but today was one of those days from hell when I wished that more people signed up for my free Text Alert Service. Yahoo was down in various parts of the country. AWeber, the service provider we use to send out the Trade Alerts by email, was completely down for hours, and initially denied that the problem was at their end. They … [Read more...]
The China View from 30,000 Feet
I have long sat beside the table of McKinsey & Co., the best management consulting company in Asia, hoping to catch some crumbs of wisdom (click here for their home page). So, I jumped at the chance to have breakfast with Shanghai based Worldwide Managing Director, Dominic Barton, when he passed through San Francisco visiting clients. These are usually sedentary … [Read more...]
January 30, 2015 – Quote of the Day
"A man who wants to lead the orchestra must turn his back to the crowd," said David Gurwitz, concert pianist and composer. … [Read more...]
January 29, 2015
Global Market Comments January 29, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (QUALCOMM GUIDANCE CRUSHES STOCK), (QCOM) (BUSINESS IS BOOMING AT THE MONEY PRINTERS), (TESTIMONIAL) QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) … [Read more...]
Qualcomm Guidance Crushes Stock
It seems that the harder I work, the luckier I get. Last week I made a bet that companies with a high share of international business would be punished severely during earnings season. Specifically, I picked QUALCOMM (QCOM), the San Diego based maker of processors for cell phones, tablets, and laptops, because it had the highest percentage of foreign earnings among the … [Read more...]
Business is Booming at the Money Printers
All of the high-grade paper used by the US Treasury to print money is bought from a single firm, Crane & Co., which has been in the same family for seven generations. Last year, the Feds printed 38 million banknotes worth $639 million. Although they have seen the recession cause the velocity of money to decline, recent reflationary efforts have spurred a big increase in … [Read more...]
Testimonial
I’m happy to renew my subscription to The Mad Hedge Fund Trader. This current, very perplexing market demands a coach advising you on what it is doing. If you do not step up to the plate and hit what is being pitched you will not succeed. The same is true with this market. With a personal 35+ years of investing, some as a professional, I do not know of anyone that can … [Read more...]
January 29, 2015 – Quote of the Day
“Wars are easier to get into than to get out of,” said former Secretary of Defense, Robert M. Gates. … [Read more...]
January 28, 2015
Global Market CommentsJanuary 28, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(THE UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES OF THE EURO CRASH),(FXE), (EUO)(CAT), (PG), (MSFT), (M), (FDO), (COST), (TGT), (WMT)(RSP), (QQQ), (IWM)(WATCH OUT FOR THE HEAD AND SHOULDERS)(SPY), (QQQ), (TLT), (FXE), (FXY), (GLD), (SLV) CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO)Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)The Procter … [Read more...]
The Unintended Consequences of the Euro Crash
For those of you who heeded my expert advice to buy the ProShares Ultra Short Euro ETF (EUO) last July, well done! You are up a massive 48%! This is on a move in the underlying European currency of only 18.5%. My browsing of the Galleria in Milan, the strolls through Spanish shopping malls, and my dickering with an assortment of dubious Greek merchants, all paid off big time. … [Read more...]
Watch Out for the Head and Shoulders
Every technical analyst in the world is pouring over their charts and coming to the same conclusion. A “Head and Shoulders” pattern is setting up for the major indexes, especially for the S&P 500 (SPY). This is terrible news for the stock investors, as well as other owners of risk assets like the US dollar, commodities, and real estate. It is wonderful news for those long … [Read more...]
January 28, 2015 – Quote of the Day
“As for the Swiss franc, there’s blood in the street and on the walls,” said Stephen Schwarzman, CEO of the Blackstone Group, a global private equity firm. … [Read more...]
January 27, 2015
Global Market CommentsJanuary 27, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(MORE PAIN TO COME IN OIL)(USO), (XOM), (OXY), (COP), (DAL)(THE SERVICE JOB IN YOUR FUTURE), (MCD) United States Oil ETF (USO)Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)ConocoPhillips (COP)Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL)McDonald's Corp. (MCD) … [Read more...]
More Pain to Come in Oil
There are very few people I will drop everything to listen to. One of the handful is Daniel Yergin, the bookish founder and CEO of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, the must-go-to source for all things energy. Daniel received a Pulitzer Prize for The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power, a rare feat for a non-fiction book (I’ve never been able to get … [Read more...]
The Service Job in Your Future
Anyone wondering about the long term future of the US economy should take a look at the chart below. It shows the unrelenting growth of services’ share of American GDP growing from 25% to 45% over the last sixty years. Far and away the fastest growth area has been in health care and with the first Obamacare now underway, that growth is set to accelerate hugely. Financial … [Read more...]
January 26, 2015
Global Market CommentsJanuary 26, 2015Fiat Lux SPECIAL RAILROAD ISSUE Featured Trade:(WILL THE OIL BUST KILL THE RAILROADS?),(UNP), (CSX), (NSC), (CP), (ACI),(TESTIMONIAL) Union Pacific Corporation (UNP)CSX Corp. (CSX)Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC)Canadian Pacific Railway Limited (CP)Arch Coal Inc. (ACI) … [Read more...]
Will the Oil Bust Kill the Railroads?
No, not really. I was fascinated by the recent comments made by Union Pacific (UNP) CEO, Jack Koraleski, about the current robust health of his company. Fourth quarter profits rocketed by an amazing 22% and those stellar numbers look set to continue. I love railroads, not because they used to belch smoke and steam and have these incredibly loud, romantic, wailing whistles. … [Read more...]