April 21, 2015

Global Market CommentsApril 21, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(JUNE 25 NEW YORK STRATEGY LUNCHEON)(MY BRIEFING FROM THE JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF),(PANW), (PHO), (HACK), (FXI), (RSX),(TESTIMONIAL) Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW)PowerShares Water Resources ETF (PHO) PureFunds ISE Cyber Security ETF (HACK) iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX) … [Read more...]


John Thomas

I retired eight years ago, and my broker told me to hang in there with my stocks before the recession, so I saved myself a lot of money and closed the account.  In 2009 I started paying for advice and investing on line.  A blind chicken could have made a fortune in 2009, and I did well. But it got harder, so I added advisers.  John Thomas was one I added in 2010.  Since … [Read more...]

April 21, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Roller Coaster

“My experience in business helps me as an investor, and my investment experience makes me a better businessman,” said Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett. … [Read more...]

April 20, 2015

Global Market CommentsApril 20, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(JUNE 22 WASHINGTON DC GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON)(WHERE THE ECONOMIST BIG MAC INDEX FINDS CURRENCY VALUE),(FXF), (FXE), (FXA), CYB)(THE FALLING MARKET FOR KIDS),(HOLLYWOOD CASHES IN ON WALL STREET TROUBLES) CurrencyShares Swiss Franc ETF (FXF) CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE) CurrencyShares Australian Dollar ETF (FXA) … [Read more...]

Where The Economist “Big Mac” Index Finds Currency Value


My former employer, The Economist, once the ever tolerant editor of my flabby, disjointed, and juvenile prose (Thanks Peter and Marjorie), has released its “Big Mac” index of international currency valuations. Although initially launched by an imaginative journalist as a joke three decades ago, I have followed it religiously and found it an amazingly accurate predictor of … [Read more...]

The Falling Market for Kids


Until the 19th century, children used to provide income and security for their parents as they worked on the family farm. That dynamic continued when industrialization brought families into the cities and kids into the factories. Since then, children have been a great short. A hundred years of state mandated education and child labor laws increased the cost of raising … [Read more...]

Hollywood Cashes in on Wall Street’s Troubles

Demi Moore

I have done many things in my life: hedge fund manager, pilot, cowboy, journalist, stockbroker, mountain climber, translator, guide, etc, etc. etc. Now add technical consultant to Hollywood to the list. According to the New York Times, Simon Baker, star of the TV show “The Mentalist”, is using the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader as a resource to humanize Wall Street traders … [Read more...]

April 17, 2015


Special Note for My April 17 Incline Village Lunch Guests

John Thomas

Those who will be attending my Incline Village Global Strategy luncheon today, April 17 are welcome to join me on my daily hike afterwards. You need to do something to work off the excellent lunch. I’ll be kicking off from the trailhead at the Tunnel Creek Café off of Nevada State Highway 28. Please bring your hiking boots, hat, sunscreen, and a canteen. The weather will be … [Read more...]

The Portfolio That Will Double in Three Years


Below, I have listed a portfolio of ten stocks that will almost certainly double in three years. If I am wrong, it will gain 100% in only two years. But there is a catch. This basket of stocks may have to drop 20%-30% first. It is a cardinal rule of investment that if you want to earn higher returns, you must accept higher volatility as well. It doesn’t require a rocket … [Read more...]

April 16, 2015

Global Market Comments April 16, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (FRIDAY, MAY 15 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON) (THE NEW COLD WAR) (THE BEST FINANCIAL BOOK EVER) … [Read more...]

The New Cold War

Ian Bremmer

My friend, Ian Bremmer of the Eurasia Group, a global risk analyst who I regularly follow, has published an outstanding book entitled The End of the Free Markets: Who Wins the War Between States and Corporations. I find this highly depressing, as it takes me as long to read one of Ian’s books as it takes him to write another one. To read a review of his highly insightful tome … [Read more...]

The Best Financial Book Ever

The Ascent of Money

I have just finished reading the best financial book ever and I have read most of them. It is The Ascent of Money: a Financial History of the World by Harvard professor Niall Ferguson. It gives you a great explanation of how the broad sweep of history delivered us to the doorstep of today’s crisis. Ferguson starts with an ancient accounting system written on clay tablets in … [Read more...]

April 16, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Isaac Newton

“I can calculate the motions of heavenly bodies, but never the madness of crowds,” said Sir Isaac Newton, the inventor of calculus and discoverer of Newton’s Laws, who lost his entire fortune in a 17th century investment scam called “the south Sea Bubble.” … [Read more...]

April 15, 2015


The Tax Rate Fallacy


When anyone starts lecturing you that the US has the highest tax rate in the industrialized world, just turn around, walk away, and pretend you never heard of them. This person is either ignorant about this country's taxation system, or is deliberately trying to deceive you. According to a report released by the Internal Revenue Service, America's tax collection agency, the … [Read more...]

The Best Testimonial Ever

John Thomas - Beach

I was pondering an FXE trade alert from MHFT today when my cell rang with a Berkeley, CA area code. Since I know a couple people in that part of the world, I answered, and it was none other than John Thomas. Had I not heard his voice on the MHFT webinars, I would have thought I was being punked. But given that I’m in the last month of a trial run, he actually called to find … [Read more...]

April 14, 2015

Global Market CommentsApril 14, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND THE FRIDAY, APRIL 17 INCLINE VILLAGE, NEVADA STRATEGY LUNCHEON)(DON’T GET SCAMMED BY THE MUTUAL FUNDS),(WHY I LOVE/HATE THE OIL COMPANIES), (XOM), (COP), (OXY), (USO) Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)ConocoPhillips (COP) Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)United States Oil ETF (USO) … [Read more...]

Last Chance to Friday, April 17 Incline Village, Nevada Global Strategy Luncheon

John Thomas

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Incline Village, Nevada on Friday, April 17, 2015. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real … [Read more...]

Don’t Get Scammed by the Mutual Funds


How many mutual funds would you guess outperformed the stock market since the bull run started six years ago? If you guessed 1,000, 100 or even 10, you would be dead wrong and even off by miles. In actual fact, not a single mutual fund has beaten the market since 2009. Remember all those expensive, slickly produced TV ads boasting market beating ratings and top quartiles? You … [Read more...]

Why I Love/Hate the Oil Companies


The first thing I do when I get up every morning is to curse the oil companies as the blood sucking scourges of modern civilization. I then fall down on my knees and thank God that we have the oil companies. This is why petroleum engineers are getting $100,000 straight out of college, while English and political science major are going straight on to food stamps and … [Read more...]

April 14, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Bear Crossing

“We are not going to get the returns in the next five years that we got over the last five years,” said Ed Keon, managing director of Quantitative Asset Management. … [Read more...]

April 13, 2015

Global Market CommentsApril 13, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER HITS NEW ALL TIME HIGH),(FXE), (EUO), (SPY), (GS), (IWM), (PANW), (ZIOP), (THRX), (ZTS),(A NOTE ON THE UPCOMING FRIDAY APRIL 17 OPTIONS EXPIRATION),(GS), (FXE), (IWM) CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE) ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) … [Read more...]

Mad Hedge Fund Trader Hits New All Time High

Hula Dancing

I am sitting here on the balcony of my penthouse suite at the Hyatt Regency hotel in Maui. A gentle trade wind is causing the palms to rhythmically sway. Giant green sea turtles are landing on the beach, attracting hoards of tourists to video them with their iPhones. I am on my third mai tai for the day. There is a hula dancing class taking place on the front lawn. Life is … [Read more...]

A Note on the Upcoming Friday April 17 Options Expiration

Woman - Pat on the Back

We have several options positions that expire on Friday, and I just want to explain to the newbies how to best maximize their profits. My bets that (GS) and the (IWM) would rise, and that the (FXE) and (FXY) would fall during March and April proved dead on accurate. Provided that some 9/11 type even doesn’t occur this week, all positions should expire at their maximum … [Read more...]

April 13, 2015 – Quote of the Day


“Whenever I hear someone in finance say that a one in two billion year event just happened, I say that you just demonstrated you have a model for measuring tail risk that isn’t any good,” said former Treasury Secretary and Harvard University President Larry Summers. … [Read more...]

April 10, 2015


A Day with Tom Friedman of the New York Times

John Thomas with Tom Freidman

I took a day off to attend the New York Times Global Forum at San Francisco’s Sony Metreon Center. The goal was to put together 400 of the most forward thinking and influential minds in the Bay Area, stand back, and see what happened. It was organized by my old friend, fellow traveler, and veteran journalist, Tom Friedman. Tom and I date back to the old days in Beirut, during … [Read more...]

April 10, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Hot Air Balloon

“There is nowhere in the industrialized world where bond markets are looking for more than 2% inflation or more than 1% real interest rates over the next decade,” said former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers. … [Read more...]

April 9, 2015

Global Market CommentsApril 9, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(FRIDAY, APRIL 17 INCLINE VILLAGE, NEVADA STRATEGY LUNCHEON),(MY UPDATED VIEW OF THE STOCK MARKET),(SPY), (TLT), (IWM), (DXJ), (FXE), (PANW), (GS), (AAPL), (FB), (BABA) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity ETF (DXJ)CurrencyShares Euro … [Read more...]

My Updated View of the Stock Market

John Thomas

Sooner, and not as high. Those are the adjustments that I am making to my forecast this year for the performance of the US stock markets for the year. You may recall that in my 2015 Annual Asset Class Review (click here), that I thought the S&P 500 might appreciate from 2,060 to 2,350 by the end of 2015, a gain of 14%, and that stocks might reach an average multiple of … [Read more...]

April 9, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Woman Backpacker

“The central bank trade has been very fulfilling, but if you are going to play it now, do it aboard,” said Mohamed El-Erian, for co-CEO of bond giant PIMCO. … [Read more...]

April 8, 2015

Global Market CommentsApril 8, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(FRIDAY, MAY 8 LAS VEGAS STRATEGY LUNCHEON)(CYBER SECURITY IS ONLY JUST GETTING STARTED),(PANW), (SNE), (GOOG), (CSCO), (FEYE), (FTNT), (CHKP), (JNPR),(A TRIBUTE TO A GIANT OF JOURNALISM, ROY ESSOYAN) Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW) Sony Corporation (SNE) Google Inc. (GOOG) Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)FireEye, Inc. … [Read more...]

Cyber Security is Only Just Getting Started


It looks like the cyber security sector, one of the best market performers so far in 2015, is about to take off like a rocket once again. There could be another 25%-50% in it this year. The near destruction of Sony (SNE) by North Korean hackers last November has certainly put the fear of God into corporate America. Apparently, they have no sense of humor whatsoever north of … [Read more...]

Tribute to a Giant of Journalism, Roy Essoyan

Roy Essoyan

I had been filled with great sadness when I had learned of the passing of an old friend and mentor, Roy Essoyan, the former Tokyo bureau chief for the Associated Press. When I was a young, wet behind the ears financial journalist in Japan during the early seventies, Roy had the charity to take me under his wing and teach me a few tricks of the trade. We often met for lunch at … [Read more...]

April 7, 2015

Global Market Comments April 7, 2015 Fiat Lux SPECIAL IRAN ISSUE Featured Trade: (CHICAGO FRIDAY, APRIL 30 GLOBAL STRAGEGY LUNCHEON), (IRAN PEACE DEAL BRINGS ON THE PAX AMERICANA), (USO) United States Oil ETF (USO)   … [Read more...]

Iran Deal Brings on the Pax Americana


The peace deal with Iran is worth a stock market double and maybe more. Add that to the double we already deserve from a cheap long-term price of energy, and it is clear that stock prices have a long ways to go on the upside from here. The Iranian peace deal is a hugely pro global growth, pro risk development, which I have been forecasting for years. Bring on the Pax … [Read more...]

April 6, 2015

Global Market CommentsApril 6, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(FRIDAY, MAY 15 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON)(THE BIG MILESTONE FOR SOLAR),(TAN), (SCTY), (SPWR), (FSLR),(THE CHINA VIEW FROM 30,000 FEET),(FXI), (BABA), (DBC), (DYY), (DBA), (PHO),(TESTIMONIAL) Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN)SolarCity Corporation (SCTY)SunPower Corporation (SPWR)First Solar, Inc. (FSLR)iShares China … [Read more...]

The Big Milestone for Solar

Molokini Crater

I am writing this to you from a dive boat headed for the Molokini Crater off the coast of Maui in Hawaii. The rolling of the boat makes typing challenging, so please excuse me for more than the usual number of typos. In the distance farmers are burning off their harvested cane fields, creating giant plumes of smoke, a practice banned in the continental US decades ago. A pod … [Read more...]

The China View from 30,000 Feet

Great Wall of China

I have long sat beside the table of Mckinsey & Co., the best management consulting company in Asia, hoping to catch some crumbs of wisdom. So, I jumped at the chance to have breakfast with Shanghai based Worldwide Managing Director, Dominic Barton, when he passed through San Francisco visiting clients. These are usually sedentary affairs, but Dominic spit out fascinating … [Read more...]



After losing money with a million different advisory services and registered brokers I finally found YOU, and YOU make it all worth it!!! Thanks a bunch. I have so much confidence in you! Stefano Quarona, Sesia, Italy … [Read more...]

April 2, 2015


An Upgrade for the Tesla Supercharger Network

Tesla Chargers

I am writing this to you from the veranda of my penthouse suite at the Maui Hyatt Hotel. I am sipping my fifth cup of Kona coffee for the morning. You see, the New York market opens at 3:30 AM here. On the other hand, Tokyo hours run from 3:00 – 8:00 pm, ideal working hours if surfing every morning is your priority. That explains why so many Asian oriented hedge funds are … [Read more...]

Notice to Military Subscribers


To the dozens of subscribers in Afghanistan and the surrounding ships at sea, thank you for your service! I think it is very wise to use your free time to read my letter and learn about financial markets in preparation for an entry into the financial services when you muster out. Nobody is going to call you a baby killer and shun you, as they did when I returned from … [Read more...]

April 2, 2015 – Quote of the day

Woman in glasses

“The stock market is one of those things that looks better the more expensive it gets,” said Barbara Marcin, portfolio manager of the Gabelli Dividend Growth Fund. … [Read more...]

Get Ready to Load the Boat with Homebuilders

Home with Chart

I am writing this to you from Terminal 3 at San Francisco airport, awaiting my flight to Honolulu, Hawaii. The pilot strides by quickly and purposefully, and I’m wondering if I should stop him for a brief pilot to pilot chat. How are you feeling? Are you satisfied with your life? Are you feeling depressed at all? Hey, did you hear the one about the chicken that crossed the … [Read more...]

April 1, 2015 – Quote of the Day


“There’s a lot of performance anxiety out there right now. There’s nothing worse than sitting on cash watching a market go up double digits,” said Tom Lee, chief US equity strategist of JP Morgan. … [Read more...]

March 31, 2015

Global Market CommentsMarch 31, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(WEDNESDAY APRIL 1 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),(ENTERING THE QUIET TIME),(SPY), (IWM), (QQQ), (IJR), (GS), (FXE),(CHINA’S COMING DEMOGRAPHIC NIGHTMARE) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)iShares Russell 2000 (IWM)PowerShares QQQ Trust, Ser 1 (QQQ)iShares Core S&P Small-Cap (IJR)The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. … [Read more...]

Entering the Quiet Time


I’ll let you in on my top secret investment strategy that has brought me blockbuster results over the past six years. Listen to the Wharton Business School’s professor, Jeremy Siegel. The good doctor has been unremittingly bullish year in and year out, nearly pegging the stock index performance annually. So, when he says that the Dow Average is going to rise to 20,000 by the … [Read more...]

China’s Coming Demographic Nightmare


Thanks to China's “one child only” policy adopted 30 years ago, and a cultural preference for children who grow up to become family safety nets, there are now 32 million more boys under the age of 20 than girls. Large scale interference with the natural male:female ratio has been tracked with some fascination by demographers for years, and is constantly generating unintended … [Read more...]

March 31, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Girl Tight Jeans

“The time to worry about the Fed is not when they go from accommodative to neutral, it is when they go from neutral to tight,” said Bill Miller the legendary former chairman and CIO of Legg Mason Capital Management. … [Read more...]

March 30, 2015

Global Market Comments March 30, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND THE FRIDAY, APRIL 3 HONOLULU, HAWAII STRATEGY LUNCHEON) (TAKE PROFITS ON CYTRX CORP. (CYTR) CytRx Corporation (CYTR) … [Read more...]

Last Chance to Attend Friday April 3 Honolulu, Hawaii Global Strategy Luncheon

Hula Dancer

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Honolulu, Hawaii on Friday, April 3, 2015. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals and real estate. And to … [Read more...]

Take Profits on CytRx Corp. (CYTR)

JT with Tesla

It’s time to take profits on CytRx Corp., but only if you are a trader. The shares that I first recommended in June, 2014 have just tacked on a healthy 40% over the last three weeks. However, if you are an investor, hang on. I believe that the biotech boom in the US is only just getting started. The sector should grow from 1% to 20% of US stock market capitalization over the … [Read more...]

March 30, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Animial Trap

“We’re in a secular bull market for the dollar. …A strong dollar is a natural consequence of America emerging from a liquidity trap, while Europe and Japan are still stuck in one. The dollar is a growth stock, and growth stocks over time outperform utilities,” said Paul McCulley, formerly the chief economist at bond giant PIMCO. … [Read more...]

March 27, 2015


Ten Tips for Surviving a Day Off With Me

Sierra Mtn - Sign

I have snowshoed some 350 miles so far this winter, most of it over 9,000 feet with a 60 pound pack. I’ll probably put in over 600 before the spring snowmelt, since my February Australian lecture tour is going to take a bite out of my training schedule. So I think I’m finally getting the hang of it. It is definitely a sport of mixed pleasures. The blisters and calluses that … [Read more...]

March 27, 2015 – Quote of the Day


“If the dollar stays up here, a lot of companies are going to have to re price their products. Very few firms have the pricing power of Apple,” said my friend, Dan Niles, of Alpha One Partners. … [Read more...]

March 26, 2015


Friends Who Will Execute My Trade Alerts for You

John Thomas

Practically every day, I get emails from readers asking me to take over management of their money so I can execute my Trade Alerts for them. With an 80% success rate an average annualized return, why wouldn’t they? Unfortunately, I have to turn these invitations down. Watching the market, doing the research for new Trade Alerts, keeping up with a global speaking schedule and … [Read more...]

How to Execute a Vertical Bull Call Spread


For those readers looking to improve their trading results and create the unfair advantage they deserve, I have posted a new training video on How to Execute a Vertical Bull Call Spread. This is a matched pair of positions in the options market that will be profitable when the underlying security goes up, sideways, or down small in price over a defined limited period of time. … [Read more...]

March 26, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Theodore Roosevelt

“In any moment of decision, the best thing you can do is the right thing, the next best thing is the wrong thing, and the worst thing you can do is nothing,” said President Theodore Roosevelt, whose oldest daughter, Alice Roosevelt Longworth I once met. … [Read more...]

March 25, 2015

Global Market Comments March 25, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE BLOCKBUSTER READ IN THE HEDGE FUND COMMUNITY), (AMERICA’S NATIVE INDIAN ECONOMY) … [Read more...]

The Blockbuster Read in the Hedge Fund Community

MONEY Master the Game

About a year ago, I received a call from a friend of Tony Robbins, the renown, six foot seven inch motivational speaker. He said he was looking for billionaires to participate in a future project. I answered that I wasn’t a billionaire yet, but that he should call me in a couple of years when I might be there. Last week, the end result of that project landed on my desk, the … [Read more...]

America’s Native Indian Economy


When I was remodeling my 160-year-old London house, the chimney was in desperate need of attention. After the bricklayer crawled up the fireplace, he found a yellowed and somewhat singed envelope addressed to Santa Claus. Thinking it was placed there by my kids, he handed it over to me. In it was a letter penned in a childlike scrawl, written with a quill and ink, dated … [Read more...]

March 25, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Peter Lynch

“Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost by corrections themselves,” said the legendary Fidelity money manager, Peter Lynch, who once told me I was the dumbest broker he had ever met. … [Read more...]

March 24, 2015

Global Market CommentsMarch 24, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(FRIDAY, APRIL 3 HONOLULU, HAWAII STRATEGY LUNCHEON)(TEN REASONS WHY STOCKS ARE STILL GOING UP),(AAPL), (IBM), (XOM), (WFC), (INTC), (DXJ), (COP) Apple Inc. (AAPL)International Business Machines Corporation (IBM)Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)Wells Fargo & Company (WFC)Intel Corporation (INTC)WisdomTree Japan … [Read more...]

Ten Reasons Why Stocks Are Still Going Up


While driving back from Lake Tahoe last weekend, I received a call from a dear friend who was in a very foul mood. He had bailed on all his equity holdings at the end of last year, fully expecting a market crash in the New Year. Despite market volatility doubling, multinationals getting crushed by the weak euro and the Federal Reserve now signaling its first interest rate rise … [Read more...]

March 23, 2015

Global Market CommentsMarch 23, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER HITS 10% PROFIT IN 2015),(FXE), (EUO), (SPY), (GILD), (AA), (QCOM), (T), (LINE), (TBT), (ZIOP), (THRX), (ZTS), (USO),(THE GREAT SOCIAL SECURITY MARRIAGE BENEFIT YOU’VE NEVER HEARD OF) CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO)SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)Gilead Sciences Inc. … [Read more...]

Mad Hedge Fund Trader Hits 10% Profit in 2015

John Thomas

I am sitting here at the Lone Eagle Grill in Incline Village, Nevada, enjoying a rare solo lunch. No one is asking me about the future of interest rates, if there is any gold inside Fort Knox or if the aliens really landed at Roswell, New Mexico. My table overlooks majestic Lake Tahoe, and a brace of mallard ducks has just skidded across the smooth surface for a landing. My … [Read more...]

The Great Social Security Marriage Benefit You’ve Never Heard Of

John Thomas-Vintage Car

The telltale signs were suddenly everywhere. The AARP membership cards appeared, unsolicited, in the mail (American Association of Retired Persons). People have started giving up their seat to me whenever I ride the BART, especially when I need a haircut. And recently, I have found those never ending TV ads about drugs dealing with arthritis, Alzheimer’s disease and erectile … [Read more...]

March 20, 2015

Global Market CommentsMarch 20, 2015Fiat Lux SPECIAL JAPAN ISSUE Featured Trade:(FRIDAY, MAY 15 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON)(THE BULL CASE FOR JAPANESE STOCKS),(DXJ), (SNE), (CAJ),(IT’S ALL OVER FOR THE JAPANESE YEN),(FXY), (YCS) WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity ETF (DXJ)Sony Corporation (SNE)Canon Inc. (CAJ)CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY)ProShares UltraShort Yen … [Read more...]

The Bull Case for Japanese Stocks


If you live long enough, you see everything. After a 25-year hiatus, here I am finally back making money in the Japanese stock market once again. Any sentient being couldn’t help but notice the specular results the Japanese stock market has produced so far in 2015. The Nikkei Average is up a robust 11.7%, while the Wisdom Tree Japan Hedged Equity Fund (DXJ), which eliminates … [Read more...]

It’s All Over for the Japanese Yen

Japanese Girl

The only reservation I have about doing this trade right now is that the Japanese fiscal year ends on March 31. As we all know, book closings can generate some pretty weird gyrations in the market place as both companies and government window dress in the extreme. However, once we are in the new fiscal year, I expect the yen to resume its downtrend, and the Nikkei its … [Read more...]

March 19, 2015

Global Market CommentsMarch 19, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(FRIDAY, APRIL 3 HONOLULU, HAWAII STRATEGY LUNCHEON)(FED NOT TO RAISE INTEREST RATES IN 2015)(IWM), (DXJ), (GLD), (FXE), (FXY), (USO), (TLT),(TESTIMONIAL) iShares Russell 2000 (IWM)WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity ETF (DXJ)SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY)United … [Read more...]

Fed Not to Raise Interest Rates in 2015

Janet Yellen

Yes, that is the shocking truth that Fed chairman Janet Yellen told us today with the release of the central bank’s minutes. Of course, she didn’t exactly say that she would raise interest rates for the first time in a decade in so many words. To discern that, you had to be fluent in Janetspeak. Very few people have the slightest idea what comprises Janetspeak. It just so … [Read more...]


Jim Parker

Dear Jim, Good for You!!!!!!! Thanks for the Microsoft trade in your Late Show email yesterday! Bought the Microsoft (MSFT) March 20 $42 Calls for 21 cents yesterday. It just closed out at 64 cents after the jump today. Overnight, I made a 200% profit, so I took the money! Regards, Daniel Los Angeles … [Read more...]

March 19, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Janet Yellen.

“Just because we removed the word “patient” doesn’t mean that we are going to be impatient,” said my friend, Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen. That is pure Janet. I feel like I’m back at Berkeley. … [Read more...]

March 18, 2015

Global Market Comments March 18, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (FRIDAY, APRIL 17 INCLINE VILLAGE, NEVADA STRATEGY LUNCHEON) (THE BUY AND FORGET PORTFOLIO), (SPY), (IXUS), (EEM), (VNQ), (TLT), (TIP) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) iShares Core MSCI Total Intl Stk (IXUS) iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) Vanguard REIT ETF (VNQ) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) iShares TIPS … [Read more...]

The Buy and Forget Portfolio

Daenerys Targaryen

All traders and portfolio managers with experience approaching a half century, like myself and a handful of close friends, all agree on one thing. Someday, you will be wrong. I don’t mean just a little bit wrong, I mean disastrously wrong. A real humdinger, even a life threatening experience. Even wrong up the wazoo. In fact, most old salts, even the best performing ones, … [Read more...]

March 17, 2015


Mad Day Trader Jim Parker Kills it With an Oil Short

John Thomas

Mad Day Trader Jim Parker is a modest guy. He has never been one to boast of his many achievements. If he does a great trade, he simply marks it in the “WIN” column and moves on to the next trade. I, however, am not Jim Parker. As you may have noticed over the years, I have no hesitation whatsoever about singing my own praises, as well as those of others. So, I will bang his … [Read more...]

Here Comes the Next Peace Dividend


When communications between intelligence agencies suddenly spike, as has recently been the case, I sit up and take note. Hey, do you think I talk to all of those generals because I like their snappy uniforms, do you? The word is that the despotic, authoritarian regime in Syria is on the verge of collapse. The body count is mounting, and the only question now is whether Bashar … [Read more...]

More Pain to Come in Oil

The Prize

There are very few people I will drop everything to listen to. One of the handful is Daniel Yergin, the bookish founder and CEO of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, the must-go-to source for all things energy. Daniel received a Pulitzer Prize for The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power, a rare feat for a non-fiction book (I’ve never been able to get … [Read more...]

March 16, 2015

Global Market CommentsMarch 16, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(FRIDAY, APRIL 3 HONOLULU, HAWAII STRATEGY LUNCHEON)(THE CRASH COMING TO A MARKET NEAR YOU), (TLT), (TBT),(A TOUCHDOWN FOR USC), (INTC) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)Intel Corporation (INTC) … [Read more...]

The Crash Coming to a Market Near You

Bank for Int'l Settlements

I’m sure that most of you are spending your free time devouring the utterly fascinating pages of Fifty Shades of Gray these days. I, however, am reading slightly different subject matter. As obscure, academic and abstruse the “Global Dollar Credit: Links to US Monetary Policy and Leverage” may sound, published by the Bank for International Settlements, it has been an absolute … [Read more...]

A Touchdown for USC

David and Dana Dornsife

One of my many alma maters, the University of Southern California, announced that they had received their largest private donation ever. As a third generation alumni of this fanatical football factory (I went to school with Mark Harmon, Lynn Swan, and oops, OJ Simpson), I still receive their alumni newsletter, where I learned the good news. David and Dana Dornsife gave $200 … [Read more...]

March 13, 2015

Global Market CommentsMarch 13, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(MARCH 18 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),(TAKING PROFITS ON MY EURO SHORTS),(FXE), (EUO), (DXGE), (HEDGE)(ARE JUNK BONDS PEAKING?), (JNK), (HYG) CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO)WisdomTree Germany Hedged Equity ETF (DXGE)Hedge Inversiones SICAV (HEDGE)SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF … [Read more...]

Taking Profits on the Euro

John Thomas - beer

Occasionally the consensus is right. Since the start of the year, it seems that everyone and his brother, sister and cleaning lady has been selling short the euro. As a result, the beleaguered continental currency has suffered one of the sharpest falls in the history of the foreign exchange markets. I have to think back three decades to recall something similar, when the … [Read more...]

Are Junk Bonds Peaking?

Childrens Game

There is no happier corner of the fixed income universe than junk bonds (JNK), (HYG), which have been soaring like a bat out of hell for the past four years. Average yields for the bond class most sensitive to the economy have collapsed from 18% to near an all-time low of 5%, a scant 300 basis points over ten year Treasury bonds (TLT). The ETF (JNK), which I have been … [Read more...]