December 19, 2014

Global Market Comments December 19, 2014 Fiat Lux SPECIAL END OF YEAR ISSUE Featured Trade: (GO LONG CHRISTMAS CHEER AND HOT BUTTERED RUM), (MY LAST RESEARCH PIECE OF THE YEAR) … [Read more...]

A Thank You from The Mad Hedge Fund Trader

John Thomas with Santa

You are in safe hands now, with your trading portfolios up 34% on the year, if you had followed every one of my Trade Alerts to the letter. So I am calling it quits for the year. By the time you read this, I will be winging my way to Chicago to deliver the last global strategy lunch of the year (click here to buy). After that, I will be making a beeline for my beachfront … [Read more...]

My Last Research Piece of the Year

Jack Nicholson

All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy. All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy. All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy. All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy. All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy. All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy. All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy. All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy. All work and no play makes … [Read more...]

December 19, 2014 – Quote of the Day

Woman-Christmas

“If the Fed brings a lump of coal in the form of a taper, then they better brings some candy canes for the kids as well. It looks like they did,” said Bill Gross, CEO of bond giant, PIMCO. … [Read more...]

December 18, 2014

Global Market CommentsDecember 18, 2014Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(VOLATILITY HERE IS PEAKING), (VXX), (VIX), (XIV),(HEDGE FUNDS: THE NEW DUMB MONEY)(TESTIMONIAL) iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN (VXX)VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX)VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX ST ETN (XIV) … [Read more...]

Volatility Here is Peaking

Man-Pogo Stick

I am one of those cheapskates who buys Christmas ornaments by the bucket load from Costco in January for ten cents on the dollar, because my eleven month theoretical return on capital comes close to 1,000%. I also like buying flood insurance in the middle of the summer when the forecast here in California is for endless days of sunshine. That is what we are facing now with … [Read more...]

Hedge Funds: The New Dumb Money

Carrey & Daniels - Dumb & Dumber

Much of the recent buying of stocks has been generated by hedge funds panicking to cover shorts. Convinced of the imminent collapse of Europe, the impotence of governments to do anything about it, and slow economic growth at home, many managers were running a maximum short for the umpteenth time, and were forced to cover at a loss. Meet the new dumb money: hedge funds. When I … [Read more...]

Testimonial

John Thomas

Thanks so much, John and Jim, for coming up with The Mad Day Trader! I especially appreciate that you'll be using ETFs (they are so convenient...and I can trade without triggering short-term taxes, in my IRA). I Also like that you're including a focus on metals, as I'm already trading (GLD), (SLV) and their inverses (DGZ), (GLL), (ZSL), and (DUST) on my own (and making … [Read more...]

December, 18 2014 – Quote of the Day

Monopoly guy smoking cigar

“Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone,” said the legendary economist, John Maynard Keynes, founder of the modern monetary system. … [Read more...]

December 17, 2014

Global Market CommentsDecember 17, 2014Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(CHICAGO TUESDAY, DECEMBER 23 GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON),(WHY ALL SHARES ARE NOW OIL SHARES),(USO), (FXE), (TLT), (FXY), (BHP), (KOL), (CU), (RSX),(THE RECEPTION THAT THE STARS FELL UPON),(NLR), (CCJ), (CORN), (WEAT), (SOYB), (DBA) United States Oil ETF (USO)CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)iShares 20+ Year Treasury … [Read more...]

Chicago Tuesday, December 23 Global Strategy Luncheon

Chicago

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Chicago on Tuesday, December 23. A three course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And … [Read more...]

Why All Shares Are Now Oil Shares

roller_coaster_monks

After the market closes every night, I usually don a 60 pound backpack and climb the 2,000 foot mountain in my back yard. To pass the time, I listen to audio books on financial and historical topics, about 200 a year (I’ve really got President Grover Cleveland nailed!). That’s if the howling packs of coyotes don’t bother me too much. I also engage in mental calisthenics, … [Read more...]

The Reception That the Stars Fell Upon

George Shultz

My friend was having a hard time finding someone to attend a reception who was knowledgeable about financial markets, White House intrigue, international politics, and nuclear weapons. I asked who was coming. She said Reagan’s Treasury Secretary George Shultz, Clinton’s Defense Secretary William Perry, and Senate Armed Services Chairman Sam Nunn. I said I’d be there wearing my … [Read more...]

December 17, 2014 – Quote of the Day

Student

“The rule of thumb is to do your homework, do your analysis, don’t give up prudent risk management for the sake of certain fads. Look for real valuations, and stay true to your time frames,” said Marc Chandler, the global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman. … [Read more...]

December 16, 2014

Global Market CommentsDecember 16, 2014Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(DECEMBER 17 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),(END OF THE COMMODITY SUPERCYCLE),(LINE), (SLV), (PPLT), (PALL), (CU), (BHP), (USO),(CORN), (WEAT), (SOYB), (DBA), (RSX) Linn Energy, LLC (LINE)iShares Silver Trust (SLV)ETFS Physical Platinum (PPLT)ETFS Physical Palladium (PALL)First Trust ISE Global Copper ETF (CU)BHP … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss the December 17 Global Strategy Webinar

John Thomas with Santa

My next global strategy webinar will be held on Wednesday, December 17 at 12:00 PM EST. Mad Day Trader, Jim Parker, will be my willing co-conspirator to provide his expert short term trading ideas and comment in general on the markets as a whole. I’ll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, precious metal, and real estate. The goal is to … [Read more...]

End of the Commodity Super Cycle

Gold Coins

When the Trade Alerts quit working. I stop sending them out. That’s my trading strategy right now. It’s as simple as that. So when I received a dozen emails this morning asking if it is time to double up on Linn Energy (LINE), I shot back “Not yet!” There is no point until oil puts in a convincing bottom, and that may be 2015 business. Traders have been watching in complete … [Read more...]

December 16, 2014 – Quote of the Day

Mouse Cuffs

“The three most harmful addictions are heroin, carbohydrates, and a monthly salary,” said Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder.” … [Read more...]

December 15, 2014

Global Market Comments December 15, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (A DAY WITH TOM FRIEDMAN OF THE NEW YORK TIMES) (THE BEST FINANCIAL BOOK EVER), (THE NEW COLD WAR) … [Read more...]

A Day with Tom Friedman of the New York Times

John Thomas with Tom Freidman

I took a day off to attend the New York Times Global Forum at San Francisco’s Sony Metreon Center. The goal was to put together 400 of the most forward thinking and influential minds in the Bay Area, stand back, and see what happened. It was organized by my old friend, fellow traveler, and veteran journalist, Tom Friedman. Tom and I date back to the old days in Beirut, during … [Read more...]

The Best Financial Book Ever

The Ascent of Money

I have just finished reading the best financial book ever and I have read most of them. It is The Ascent of Money: a Financial History of the World by Harvard professor Niall Ferguson. It gives you a great explanation of how the broad sweep of history delivered us to the doorstep of today’s crisis. Ferguson starts with an ancient accounting system written on clay tablets in … [Read more...]

The New Cold War

Ian Bremmer

My friend, Ian Bremmer of the Eurasia Group, a global risk analyst who I regularly follow, has published an outstanding book entitled The End of the Free Markets: Who Wins the War Between States and Corporations. I find this highly depressing, as it takes me as long to read one of Ian’s books as it takes him to write another one. To read a review of his highly insightful tome … [Read more...]

It Rains in California!

Golden Gate Bridge

As I write to you, torrential sheets of rain are pounding the windows of my home. The wind is shaking the building down to the foundation. I’m typing as fast as I can, and praying that the power can stay on long enough for me to finish this piece. And, oh yes, people are cheering. The “Pineapple Express” that barreled in on we San Franciscans from Hawaii is expected to dump … [Read more...]

Testimonial

John Thomas with Mayor of Zermatt

Thanks to both of you for taking the time to answer me back. I am going to hang in there. I like your newsletter because the unbiased perspectives you share and the way in which you look at market opportunities in a realistic, factual manner.  I am just hoping to turn that advantage into profit and learn. I don’t like financial advisors as they open your account, offer canned … [Read more...]

December 11, 2014

Global Market CommentsDecember 11, 2014Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(OIL GRINCH KO’S CHRISTMAS RALLY),(SPY), (OXY), (XOM), (SCTY), (FSLR), (VSLR), (XLK), (BBH),(TESTIMONIAL),(AN EVENING WITH CONGRESS BARNEY FRANK) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)SolarCity Corporation (SCTY)First Solar, Inc. (FSLR)Vivint Solar, Inc. … [Read more...]

Oil Grinch KO’s Christmas Rally

Goldilocks

The continuing collapse in oil prices has finally spilled over into the real world, at its worst knocking 290 points off of the Dow Average yesterday. Traders who grew accustomed to a market that went up like clockwork every day were in for a rude awakening. Is the positive case for equities coming to an end? Is the bull dead? Not yet. All we are seeing is a normal 5%-7% … [Read more...]

Testimonial

John Thomas

Just want to let you know that I have had some great trades with you this year. I made the most money on (FXE), with (IWM) in second place. (IBM) was in third place - with one trade from you and comments from Jim Parker. I've found that when Jim says a stock has hit bottom it's usually a good time to buy, even if he doesn't send out a Trade Alert. You were right when you said … [Read more...]

An Evening with Congressman Barney Frank

John Thomas and Barney Frank

One of the highlights of last year’s SkyBridge Alternatives Conference was the blowout party on Wednesday night (click the following for the blow by blow description at http://madhedgefundradio.com/report-on-the-skybridge-alternatives-conference/). Seeking refuge from a band that was blasting my ears out, and fleeing the nubile young bodies that kept bumping up against me and … [Read more...]

December 11, 2014 – Quote of the Day

Dumb & Dumber

“I try to buy stock in businesses that are so wonderful that an idiot can run them. Because sooner or later, one will.” said oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett. … [Read more...]

December 10, 2014

Global Market CommentsDecember 10, 2014Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(UPDATE ON LINN ENERGY), (LINE),(THE MYSTERY OF THE MISSING $100 BILLION), (TLT),(MY FAVORITE SECRET ECONOMIC INDICATOR) Linn Energy, LLC (LINE)iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) … [Read more...]

Update on Linn Energy (LINE)

LINN Energy

After the catastrophic 25% fall in the units of Linn Energy (LINE) over the past three days, I thought I’d better take another look at the company. The company’s units have now crashed by an eye popping 55% since the May $31 high. The units have been trading as if the company is imminently going bankrupt. The contradiction is that it clearly isn’t. This is basically a healthy … [Read more...]

The Mystery of the Missing $100 billion

Gold Bars

Now you see it, now you don’t. That was the question observers of international monetary flows were asking after last week’s data release from the Federal Reserve. These showed that some $104.5 billion in Treasury securities held in custody accounts were withdrawn. It doesn’t mean that these bonds were sold. You certainly would have noticed this in the Treasury market, where … [Read more...]

My Favorite Secret Economic Indicator

Graduation

It was with an enormous sense of pride and relief that I watched the last of my kids graduate from the University of California at Berkeley. Clutching his hard fought degree in political economics in hand, Robert posed for photos among friends, with thousands of beaming parents looking on. His mother died ten years ago, and raising three kids alone, getting them through top … [Read more...]

December 9, 2014

Global Market CommentsDecember 9, 2014Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(CHICAGO TUESDAY, DECEMBER 23 GLOBAL STRAGEGY LUNCHEON),(TAKE A RIDE IN THE NEW SHORT JUNK ETF),(SJB), (JNK), (CORN)(TESTIMONIAL) ProShares Short High Yield (SJB)SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (JNK)Teucrium Corn ETF (CORN) … [Read more...]

Take a Ride in the New Short Junk ETF

Car-Junk

When you look at the profusion of new ETF’s being launched today, you find that they almost always correspond with market tops. The higher the market, the greater the demand for the underlying, and the more leverage traders pay for it. The resulting returns for investors are disastrous. But occasionally a blind squirrel finds an acorn, and if you fire buckshot long enough, you … [Read more...]

December 8, 2014

Global Market CommentsDecember 8, 2014Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(FRIDAY APRIL 3 HONOLULU, HAWAII STRATEGY LUNCHEON)(THE NOVEMBER NONFARM PAYROLL REPORT IS A GAME CHANGER),(TLT), (TBT), (SPY), (GLD), (BAC)(THE REAL ESTATE MARKET IN 2030) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)Bank of America … [Read more...]

Friday April 3 Honolulu, Hawaii Global Strategy Luncheon

John Thomas

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Honolulu, Hawaii on Friday, April 3, 2015. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And … [Read more...]

The November Nonfarm Payroll Report is a Game Changer

Rosie the Riverter

Finally, the economy is starting to deliver the blockbuster numbers that I have been predicting all year. The 321,000 gain in the November nonfarm payroll on Friday wasn’t just good, they were fantastic, truly of boom time proportions. It was the best report in nearly three years. The headline unemployment rate stayed at 5.8%, a seven year low. It vindicates my ultra bullish … [Read more...]

The Real Estate Market in 2030

Home for Sale

Long time readers of this letter already know that, seeing the real estate crash coming a mile off, I dumped all my properties in 2005, some $20 million worth. Four a year, people told me I was too short sighted, that real estate never went down, or that I was an idiot. I patiently explained at local dinner parties the deteriorating demographic and financial fundamentals that … [Read more...]

December 8, 2014 – Quote of the Day

Mike Myers Dr. Evil

“It’s basically evil, and I don’t think it should ever be allowed to reach the size that it did. Why should everyone pay a small group of people to basically engage in legalized front running of our orders,” said Berkshire Hathaway Vice Chairman, Charlie Munger, about high frequency trading.   … [Read more...]

December 5, 2014

Global Market CommentsDecember 5, 2014Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(CHICAGO TUESDAY, DECEMBER 23 GLOBAL STRAGEGY LUNCHEON),(HERE IS YOUR BIG NEW YEAR TRADE),(CU), (FCX),(RUNNING THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY TO BREAKERS) First Trust ISE Global Copper ETF (CU)Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) … [Read more...]

Here is Your Big New Year Trade

Pennies

When Dr. Copper (CU), the only commodity with a PhD in economics, suddenly collapses from a heart attack, risk takers everywhere have to sit up and take notice. Since the 2011 top, the red metal has collapsed a shocking 40%. It has given back a nausea inducing 10% just in the last two weeks. Will copper take down the rest of the financial markets with it? Is the bull case for … [Read more...]

Running the San Francisco Bay to Breakers

Revolutionary Soldiers

I suffer earthquakes, forest fires, floods, dubious neighbors, high taxes, corrupt politicians, and a bankrupt state government to live in California. It is all worth it just to run the Bay to Breakers every year, a five mile run from the San Francisco Bay to the Pacific Ocean, which has evolved into the world’s most bizarre sporting event. The word from race organizers this … [Read more...]

December 4, 2014

Global Market Comments December 4, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE EIGHT WORST TRADES IN HISTORY) … [Read more...]

The Eight Worst Trades in History

Moby Dick

As you are all well aware, I have long been a history buff. I am particularly fond of studying the history of my own avocation, trading, in the hope that the past errors of others will provide insights into the future. History doesn’t repeat itself, but it certainly rhymes. So after decades of research on the topic, I thought I would provide you with a list of the eight worst … [Read more...]

December 4, 2014 – Quote of the Day

wile_e_coyote_gravity

“Interest rates are the physical gravity of financial assets. The lower they are, the higher assets will levitate,” said Anthony Scaramucci, the founder and managing partner of SkyBridge Capital, a leading hedge fund of funds. … [Read more...]

December 3, 2014

Global Market CommentsDecember 3, 2014Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(10 REASONS WHY I’M WRONG ON BOND),(TLT), (TBT), (LQD), (MUB), (ELD), (JNK),(A SPECIAL NOTE ON EXERCISED BANK OF AMERICA OPTIONS), (BAC) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)iShares iBoxx $ Invst Grade Crp Bond (LQD)iShares National AMT-Free Muni Bond (MUB)WisdomTree … [Read more...]

10 Reasons Why I’m Wrong on Bonds

John Thomas

I have never been one to run with the pack. I'm the guy who eternally marches to a different drummer, not in the next town, but the other hemisphere. I would never want to join a club that would lower its standards so far that it would invite me as a member. On those rare times that I do join the lemmings, I am punished severely. This is one of the times. Like everyone and … [Read more...]

A Special Note on Exercised Bank of America Options

John Thomas

This morning, Bank of America paid out a five cent quarterly dividend, which works out to an annualized yield of 1.18% and the shares will open this morning trading ex. For those of you who have wisely followed my Trade Alert to buy the Bank of America (BAC) December, 2014 $15-$16 vertical bull call spread, good for you. As of last night, you were showing a profit of 0.88% on … [Read more...]

December 2, 2014

Global Market CommentsDecember 2, 2014Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(DECEMBER 3 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),(LOADING UP ON LINN ENERGY), (LINE), (USO), (UNG), (XLE),(THE MOST FUNCTIONAL WORD IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE) Linn Energy, LLC (LINE)United States Oil ETF (USO)United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG)United States Oil ETF (USO) … [Read more...]

Loading Up On Linn Energy

LINN Energy

You can pay up to $17 a unit for (LINN) and have a good chance of making a quick, snapback profit. All of a sudden, everyone I know in Texas, and there are quite a few of them, called to tell me to buy Linn Energy, all within the space of one hour. I summarize their diverse comments below. We have reached a margin call induced capitulation sell off in Linn Energy this … [Read more...]

The Most Functional Word in the English Language

Girl-I don't know!

Passed on by a friend with my apologies in advance: Well, it's shit... That's right, shit! Shit may just be the most functional word in the English language. You can smoke shit, buy shit, sell shit, lose shit, find shit, forget shit, and tell others to eat shit. Some people know their shit, while others can't tell the difference between shit and Shinola. There are lucky … [Read more...]

December 1, 2014

Global Market Comments December 1, 2014 Fiat Lux SPECIAL OIL ISSUE Featured Trade: (CHICAGO TUESDAY, DECEMBER 23 GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (AN IRAN PEACE DEAL AND YOUR PORTFOLIO), (USO), (UNG) United States Oil ETF (USO) United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG) … [Read more...]

An Iran Peace Deal and Your Portfolio

David Hale

With the price of oil (USO), (XLE) hitting an eye popping $64 this morning, in the wake of the failed OPEC summit in Vienna, it is clear that something long term, structural, and epochal is going on. But what is it? We mere mortals are blind to it, but the financial markets haven’t the slightest doubt. Blame the wisdom of crowds. There is something big going on somewhere. So … [Read more...]

November 28, 2014

Global Market Comments November 28, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (DECEMBER 3 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (SURVIVING THANKSGIVING) … [Read more...]

Surviving Thanksgiving

Norman Rockwell Thanksgiving

The Mad Hedge Fund Trader is taking a much-needed break for the next few days to take Turkey with the vast extended family in Incline Village, Nevada. The weather is crystal clear, in the sixties during the day and down to the thirties at night. During my night hikes on the Tahoe Rim Trail, I am over awed by a pale waning moon setting into the lake. The Trade Alerts went out … [Read more...]

November 26, 2014

Global Market Comments November 26, 2014 Fiat Lux SPECIAL SOLAR CITY ISSUE Featured Trade: (LOADING THE BOAT WITH SOLAR CITY), (SCTY), (USO) SolarCity Corporation (SCTY) United States Oil ETF (USO) … [Read more...]

Loading the Boat with Solar City

Solar Shields

In recent weeks, I couldn’t help but notice the green and white vans of Solar City (SCTY) visiting my neighbors. My trader’s radar went up, so I thought there might be an opportunity here. What I found made an intriguing investment opportunity. As a preeminent supplier of solar energy, Solar City is a de facto indirect call option on the price of oil, not a bad bet here at $74 … [Read more...]

November 25, 2014

Global Market CommentsNovember 25, 2014Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(THE YEAREND MELT UP HAS STARTED!),(SPY), (TLT), (BAC), (FXE), (FXY),(EUROPEAN STYLE HOMELAND SECURITY),(TESTIMONIAL) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)Bank of America Corporation (BAC)CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY) … [Read more...]

The Yearend Melt Up Has Started!

John Thomas - Beach

Any doubts that my bullish call on global risk markets would play out as promised were blown away on Friday. That was when the central banks of China and Europe delivered a surprise, one two punch of monetary stimulus for their own troubled economies. The quantitative easing baton has successful been passed from America’s Federal Reserve to central bankers abroad. The net net … [Read more...]

European Style Homeland Security

CleeseJohn2

The English are feeling the pinch in relation to recent geopolitical events, and have therefore raised their security level from "Miffed" to "Peeved." Soon, though, security levels may be raised yet again to "Irritated" or even "A Bit Cross." The English have not been "A Bit Cross" since the blitz in 1940, when tea supplies nearly ran out. Terrorists have been re-categorized … [Read more...]

Testimonial

John Thomas

Signing up for your service was the easiest decision that I have ever made knowing the value that I am getting in return. Thanks for making the world of capital markets profitable for non-Wall Street guys that are busy working in other professions. Until now, I have been forced to deal with money managers or 'Company Men' that only push the products their higher ups want to … [Read more...]

November 25, 2014 – Quote of the Day

Hot Air Balloon

“Bonds are priced artificially because you’ve got some guy buying tens of billions of dollars worth a month. That will change at some point, and when it does, people are going to lose a lot of money,” said oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett. … [Read more...]

November 24, 2014

Global Market Comments November 24, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (TRADING THE KENNEDY ASSASSINATION) … [Read more...]

Trading the Kennedy Assassination

Kennedy Motorcade

There is not a man alive my age who does not remember the assassination of President John F. Kennedy, on November 22, 1963, 51 years ago. The tragedy offers valuable lessons for today’s traders, although we have to travel a circuitous route to get there. It was one of those epochal events, where people remember exactly what they we doing when they heard the news, like the … [Read more...]

November 21, 2014

Global Market CommentsNovember 21, 2014Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(TRADE ALERT DROUGHT EXPLANATION AND MY MARKET TAKE),(SPY), (BABA), (VIX), (REPORT FROM AUSTRALIA) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA)VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX) … [Read more...]

Trade Alert Drought Explanation and My Market Take

Golfer

Those of you who recently purchased the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s mentoring service may have noticed a sudden drop off in Trade Alerts. During October, I sent out a record 44 Alerts and Updates. As a result, that month was my best of the year, bringing in a gain of 6.69%. This month, only 5 Trade Alerts have gone out. What gives? I assure you, I have not been basking in the … [Read more...]

Report from Australia

John Thomas - Croc Dundee

The noise was as depressing as it was unmistakable. The front tire on my rental car blew out, leaving me stranded on the side of the road. The problem was that I was in the middle of nowhere in New South Wales, Australia, and it was pouring cats and dogs. Nothing but eucalyptus trees unfolded across the vast rolling hills. I looked in the trunk. Kookaburras laughed in the … [Read more...]

November 21, 2014 – Quote of the Day

Boxers-Fight

“The private economy is OK here. It is absorbing these body blows from Washington. Housing and energy could offset the shenanigans coming out of there,” said Stephen Wood, CIO with Russell Investments Group. … [Read more...]

November 20, 2014

Global Market Comments November 20, 2014 Fiat Lux SPECIAL GOLDEN ISSUE Featured Trade: (LUCKY FIND SPARKS NEW CALIFORNIA GOLD RUSH), (GLD), (THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER AND MAD DAY FUND TRADER), (THE NEW CALIFORNIA GOLD RUSH)  SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)   … [Read more...]

Lucky Find Sparks New California Gold Rush

Gold Coins

California is called the “Golden State” for a good reason. Countless fortunes have been made in mining, farming, real estate, tourism, movie making, aircraft manufacturing, aerospace, and more recently, in technology and pot growing. The Google (GOOG) and Facebook (FB) IPO’s each minted 1,000 millionaires, and Twitter’s (TWTR) deal is said to have produced 1,600 more. … [Read more...]

The Difference Between Mad Hedge Fund Trader and Mad Day Trader

John & Jim

Thanks to our ballistic, market beating performance, up 40% year to date, we have recently enjoyed a large influx of new subscribers, especially from Australia and New Zealand. So I want to take to take this opportunity to clarify exactly what you bought. While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader … [Read more...]

The New California Gold Rush

Panning for Gold

On my way back from Lake Tahoe last weekend I saw that every bend of the American river was dotted with hopeful miners, looking to make a windfall fortune. Weekend hobbyists were there panning away from the banks, while the hardcore pros stood in hip waders balancing portable pumps on truck inner tubes, pouring sand into sluice boxes. Welcome to the new California gold rush. … [Read more...]

November 19, 2014

Global Market CommentsNovember 19, 2014Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(WHY WATER WILL SOON BE WORTH MORE THAN OIL),(CGW), (PHO), (FIW), (VE), (TTEK), (PNR),(TESTIMONIAL)(REPORT FROM NEW ZEALAND),(ENZL) Guggenheim S&P Global Water ETF (CGW)PowerShares Water Resources ETF (PHO)First Trust ISE Water ETF (FIW)Veolia Environnement S.A. (VE)Tetra Tech Inc. (TTEK)Pentair plc … [Read more...]

Why Water Will Soon Become More Valuable Than Oil

Waterfall

If you think that an energy shortage is bad, it will pale in comparison to the next water crisis. So investment in fresh water infrastructure is going to be a great recurring long-term investment theme. One theory about the endless wars in the Middle East since 1918 is that they have really been over water rights. Although Earth is often referred to as the water planet, only … [Read more...]

Testimonial

John Thomas

I have always had a passion for the markets and the Mad Hedge Fund Trader gave me the courage to make my first trade. At the time I was unemployed and put in everything I could scrape together - about ten thousand dollars. For me this was a free education, as the profits would pay for all the books and the fees. My father gave me some money as a gift, while telling me ‘I was … [Read more...]

Report from New Zealand

John Thomas New Zeland Maori

35 degrees South latitude, 174 degrees East longitude. I am writing this report from the Duke of Marlborough Hotel and Pub in remote Russell, off the east coast of New Zealand’s North Island. Once known as “The Hell Hole of the Pacific” in 1835, no less an authority than Charles Darwin, claimed this 19th century whaling port was populated with “the refuse of humanity.” It has … [Read more...]

November 19, 2014 – Quote of the Day

girl with money

If you can get a dividend higher than the yield on ten-year debt, it’s an opportunity we haven’t seen in our lifetime. On a five-year horizon, investing in large multinationals with high dividends will have a large payday,” said Lawrence Fink, CEO of BlackRock. … [Read more...]

November 18, 2014

Global Market CommentsNovember 18, 2014Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(NOVEMBER 19 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),(JAPAN’S RUDE AWAKENING),(FXY), (YCS), (DXJ),(IS USA, INC. A “SELL”?) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY)ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity ETF (DXJ) … [Read more...]

Japan’s Rude Awakening

Woman - Hari Kari

Traders in Japan suffered a rude awakening yesterday morning when the Ministry of International Trade and Industry announced that the troubled country’s GDP shrunk by -1.6% during the third quarter. Analysts had been expecting a gain of 2.2%. What’s worse, this is the second consecutive quarter of negative GDP, meaning that the Land of the Rising Sun is now solidly in … [Read more...]

Is USA Inc. a “SELL”?

USA Inc.

What would happen if I recommended a stock that had no profits, was cash flow negative, and had a net worth of negative $44 trillion? Chances are, you would cancel your subscription to the Mad Hedge Fund Trader, demand a refund, de-friend me from you Facebook account, and delete my email address from your contact list. Yet, that is precisely what my former colleague at … [Read more...]

November 18, 2014 – Quote of the Day

monks

“At some point in 2014, knuckles are going to be turning white, and we'll see whatever rabbits Janet Yellen is going to have to pull out of her hat,” said David Rosenberg of Gluskin, Sheff & Associates. … [Read more...]

November 17, 2014

Global Market Comments November 17, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (CHICAGO TUESDAY, DECEMBER 23 GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON) (BULL MARKET 2.0), (PLEASE USE MY FREE DATA BASE SEARCH) … [Read more...]

Bull Market 2.0

Industrial Revolution

By now, the reasons behind this year’s bear market are pretty well known. Even my cleaning lady, Cecelia, can site them chapter and verse. Quantitative easing went global. Inflation fell, with the prices of almost all business input costs, like commodities, energy, interest rates, collapsing. Labor costs remained muted, so corporate profits rocketed. Voila! Stocks rose, … [Read more...]

Please Use My Free Data Base Search

Computer with Magnifying Glass

The original purpose of this letter was to build a database of ideas to draw on in the management of my hedge fund. When a certain trade comes into play, I merely type in the symbol, name, currency, or commodity into the search box, and the entire fundamental argument in favor of that position pops up. You can do the same. Just type anything into the search box with the little … [Read more...]

November 14, 2014

Global Market CommentsNovember 14, 2014Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(NOVEMBER 19 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),(THE 120/120 BATTLE),(FXY), (YCS), (FXE), (EUO), (UUP),(GET READY FOR YOUR NEXT BIG TAX HIT) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY)ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO)PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP) … [Read more...]

The 120/120 Battle

Wacky Guy

Foreign exchange traders are an odd lot. They tend to maintain a laser like focus on specific numbers that are utterly meaningless to us mere mortals, but which have momentous importance to themselves. Right now, one is hearing the battle cry over the 120/120 targets. Specifically, traders want to take the yen down to Y120 to the US dollar, and the Euro down to $1.20 by the … [Read more...]