August 4, 2015

Global Market Comments August 4, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (REPORT FROM THE MATTERHORN SUMMIT) … [Read more...]

Report from the Matterhorn Summit

Matterhorn Summit

From where I stand, the rolling foothills of Northern Italy spread out below me to the south. On my left lie the distinctive peaks of the Dolomite Alps. On my right I can see the massive expanse of Mont Blanc, at 15,781 feet the highest mountain in Europe. I am standing at the summit of the Matterhorn. Knock another item off the bucket list. I have been trying to climb this … [Read more...]

August 4, 2015 – Quote of the Day


“This is very bullish for markets. It’s bullish for markets intermediate term. Before, I thought we were in the seventh inning of a four-year bull market. Two waiters just came in and delivered another punch bowl. We’re going into extra innings, baby,” said Stanley Druckenmiller of hedge fund Duquesne Capital Management. … [Read more...]

August 3, 2015

Global Market CommentsAugust 3, 2015Fiat Lux SPECIAL CYBER SECURITY ISSUE Featured Trade:(THE TEN BAGGERS IN CYBER SECURITY),(PANW), (FEYE), (HACK) Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW)FireEye, Inc. (FEYE)PureFunds ISE Cyber Security ETF (HACK) … [Read more...]

The Ten Baggers in Cyber Security

US Cyber Command Emblem

The threat to America’s national security does not come from ISIS, Iran, Russia, or China. It is an online hack attack. That is the view of General Keith B. Alexander, who recently retired as the head of US Cyber Command after a lifetime in the intelligence business, the country’s principal online warrior. I discovered a long time ago that a retired general can be one of the … [Read more...]

August 3, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Game Changer Sign

“Below zero interest rates in the European Community is a game changer,” said Robert Michelle, head of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management. … [Read more...]

July 31, 2015

Global Market Comments July 31, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (SO WHAT IS YOUR “INFLUENCER” SCORE) (REPORT FROM THE ORIENT EXPRESS) … [Read more...]

So What is Your “Influencer” Score?

31st Annual Outstanding Mother Awards

First there was your grade point average, then your SAT score, followed by GMAT and LSAT scores, and finally your FICO. Now there is a new metric with which you will be judged, your “Influencer” score. A new breed of marketing research firms are using data from social media sites, like Facebook, LinkedIn, and Twitter, to rank members according to their ability to spur their … [Read more...]

Report from The Orient Express

Orient Express

I was awoken from a dead sleep in the middle of the night in my suite on the Orient Express by a juddering halt and the smell of burning breaks in the air. We were somewhere high in the Swiss Alps, and every single passenger on the first class only train had to be thinking that a murder had just been discovered. It turned out that in the darkness we had hit a 400-pound wild … [Read more...]

July 30, 2105

Global Market CommentsJuly 30, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND THE AUGUST 3 ZURICH, SWITZERLAND GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON),(WELCOME TO THE DEFLATIONARY CENTURY),(TLT), (TBT),(MY PERSONAL ECONOMIC INDICATOR),(HMC), (NSANY), (GM), (F), (TSLA) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (HMC)Nissan Motor … [Read more...]

Last Chance to Attend the August 3 Zurich, Switzerland Global Strategy Luncheon


Come join me at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy luncheon, which I will be conducting in the banking capitol of Zurich, Switzerland at 12:00 PM on Monday, August 3, 2015. A three course lunch will be provided. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I’ll … [Read more...]

Welcome to the Deflationary Century


Ignore the lessons of history, and the cost to your portfolio will be great. Especially if you are a bond trader! In Britain they are celebrating something unusual this year. The government is reporting the first year on year decline in consumer prices in 54 years (see chart below). In fact, prices for the things they buy day to day are 0.1% lower than they were 12 months … [Read more...]

My Personal Leading Economic Indicator

Honda Car Lot

There is no limit to my desire to get an early and accurate read on the US economy, which at the end of the day is what dictates the future of all of our investments. I flew over one of my favorite leading economic indicators only last month. Honda (HMC) and Nissan (NSANY) import millions of cars each year through their Benicia, California facilities, where they are loaded on … [Read more...]

July 30, 2015 – Quote of the Day

girl with money

If you can get a dividend higher than the yield on ten-year debt, it’s an opportunity we haven’t seen in our lifetime. On a five-year horizon, investing in large multinationals with high dividends will have a large payday,” said Lawrence Fink, CEO of BlackRock. … [Read more...]

July 29, 2015

Global Market Comments July 29, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (PRESIDENT HILLARY’S COMING TAX HIT), (THOUGHTS AT SEA ABOARD THE QE2-PART III) … [Read more...]

President Hillary’s Coming Tax Hit

Hillary Clinton

At long last, Hillary Clinton has started to make public key planks of her post election policies, which may become law if she is successful in her 2016 presidential bid. Until now, her run for the Democratic nomination has largely been about what she had for breakfast, her hairstyle, how nice her mom was, or how tough her dad was. I have known Hillary Clinton for more than … [Read more...]

Thoughts at Sea Aboard the Queen Mary 2, Part III

John Thomas - Queen Mary

50 degrees, 26.68 minutes North, 022 degrees, 29.98 minutes West, or 1,000 nautical miles South of Iceland, heading 089 degrees. Four days of hearing foghorns is starting to get tiring. Captain Wells has been ducking many of his social responsibilities, feeling more secure in the bridge close to the radar. After a few days of intermittent access, the Internet is now gone for … [Read more...]

July 29, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Sinking Ship - Titanic

“Everything is expensive now. Worries about the future can cause safe assets to become highly priced….I call it the “Titanic Effect.” When the Titanic was going down, people would pay a fortune for anything that floats. We may be in a Titanic situation now,” said my buddy, Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller. … [Read more...]

Last Chance to Attend the July 31 Zermatt, Switzerland Global Strategy Seminar

John Thomas - Switzerland

Come join me for afternoon tea for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Seminar, which I will be conducting high in the Alps in Zermatt, Switzerland at 2:00 PM on Friday, July 31, 2015. The guests and I will engage in an open discussion on the crucial issues facing investors today. Coffee, tea, and schnapps will be made available, along with light snacks. I’ll be … [Read more...]

Mad Hedge Fund Trader Hits 31.5% Gain in 2015

John Thomas

Life is good. Since my last letter to you, I hired a Mercedes and a Moroccan driver, driven the three hours from Tangier to Casablanca, and spent a day touring the architecture of the French colonial art deco center of that storied city. It turns out that my driver only did his job part time. He was in fact a graduate student in economics studying in Tangier and had a lot to … [Read more...]

Will Gold Coins Suffer the Fate of the $10,000 Bill?


The conspiracy theorists will love this one. Buried deep in the bowels of the 2,000 page health care bill was a new requirement for gold dealers to file Form 1099's for all retail sales by individuals over $600. Specifically, the measure can be found in section 9006 of the Patient Protection and Affordability Act of 2010. For foreign readers unencumbered by such concerns, … [Read more...]

July 28, 2015

Global Market CommentsJuly 28, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND THE JULY 31 ZERMATT, SWITZERLAND GLOBAL STRATEGY SEMINAR),(MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER HITS 31.5% GAIN IN 2015),(WILL GOLD SUFFER THE FATE OF THE $10,000 BILL?)(GLD), (GDX) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) … [Read more...]

July 27, 2015

Global Market CommentsJuly 27, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(AUGUST 3 ZURICH, SWITZERLAND GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON)(SO WHAT’S NEXT FOR THE MARKETS?),(SPY), (QQQ), (AMZN), (GOOG), (AAPL), (FB), (GILD), (DIS),(TESTIMONIAL) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) Inc. (AMZN)Google Inc. (GOOG)Apple Inc. (AAPL)Facebook, Inc. (FB)Gilead Sciences … [Read more...]

So What’s Next for the Markets?

S&P Market Snapshot

I am writing to you from the bar of the El-Minzah Hotel in Tangiers, Morocco, a one-time favorite of literary greats, F. Scott Fitzgerald, Earnest Hemingway, and Paul Bowls. A warm, languid breeze coming off the Atlantic Ocean is causing the date palms around the pool to sway in rhythmic fashion. The city has long been a hotbed of espionage, international intrigue, and … [Read more...]


John Thomas Dining

John's newsletter is, in my view, the Secretariat of the investment newsletter derby. No one else is even a close second. Gary New Jersey … [Read more...]

July 24, 2015

Global Market Comments July 24, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JULY 31 ZERMATT, SWITZERLAND GLOBAL STRATEGY SEMINAR) (HOW TO USE YOUR CELL PHONE ABROAD) … [Read more...]

How to Use Your Cell Phone Abroad

John Thomas

I constantly receive emails from readers around the world enquiring how I accomplish this or that in my far-reaching travels around the globe. After all, I have visited 125 countries over the past 50 years. What’s more, I have run the Mad Hedge Fund Trader Global Empire for the last eight years on the fly from a laptop and a cell phone. Given that Europe is now 20% cheaper … [Read more...]

July 24, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Skeletons - Bones

“Who knew the blockbuster this year would be a horror show,” said Tony Crescenzi, market strategist and portfolio manager at bond giant, PIMCO. … [Read more...]

July 23, 2015

Global Market CommentsJuly 23, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(A SAD FAREWELL TO ROBIN WILLIAMS),(THE CASE AGAINST TREASURY BONDS),(TBT), (TLT), (MUB), (LQD), (LINE),(A NOTE ON THE FRIDAY OPTIONS EXPIRATION),(SPY), (FXY) ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)iShares National AMT-Free Muni Bond (MUB)iShares iBoxx $ Invst Grade Crp Bond … [Read more...]

A Sad Farewell to Robin Williams

Robin Williams

Every time I watch a Robin Williams comedy sketch, I still feels the pangs of a lost friend. His mother lived directly next door to my family for many years. A petite widow in her late seventies, we often looked in on her, and invited her into our community social group. More than once, I came home to find my late wife chatting with her in the living room over a cup of … [Read more...]

The Case Against Treasury Bonds

Uncle Sam

My friend, Texan money manager Mike Robertson, asked me the other day if there was one asset class that I truly despised. I didn’t hesitate: bonds. In fact, fixed income investments are about to regain the nickname they earned during the 1980’s: “certificates of wealth confiscation.” That leaves me within a hair’s breadth of pulling the trigger on some new short positions in … [Read more...]

A Note on Options Expirations

John Thomas

We have a couple of options positions that are deep in the money, and I just want to explain to the newbies how to best maximize their profits. These include: S&P 500 (SPY) August $195-$200 in-the-money vertical bull call spread with a cost of $4.10 Currency Shares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) August $82-$84 in-the-money vertical bear put spread with a cost of $1.70 As long … [Read more...]

July 23, 2015 – Quote of the Day


“The Obamacare website, had technical issues all week because of too much web traffic. You can't campaign on the fact that millions don't have health care and then be surprised that millions don't have health care. How could you not be ready? That's like 1-800-FLOWERS getting caught off guard by Valentine's Day,” said a comedian on Saturday Night Live. … [Read more...]

July 22, 2015

Global Market CommentsJuly 22, 2015Fiat Lux SPECIAL ISSUE ABOUT THE FAR FUTURE Featured Trade:(PEAKING INTO THE FUTURE WITH RAY KURZWEIL),(GOOG), (INTC), (AAPL), (TXN) Google Inc. (GOOG)Intel Corporation (INTC)Apple Inc. (AAPL)Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN) … [Read more...]

Peeking into the Future with Ray Kurzweil


This is the most important research piece you will ever read, bar none. But you have to finish it to understand why. So, I will get on with the show. I have been hammering away at my followers at investment conferences, webinars, and strategy luncheons this year about one recurring theme. Things are good, and about to get better, a whole lot better. The driver will be the … [Read more...]

July 21, 2015

Global Market CommentsJuly 21, 2015Fiat Lux ANOTHER SPECIAL SOLAR ISSUE Featured Trade:(JULY 22 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),(HOW TO BUY A SOLAR SYSTEM),(SCTY), (SPWR), (TSLA), (USO) SolarCity Corporation (SCTY) SunPower Corporation (SPWR)Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA)United States Oil ETF (USO) … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss the July 22 Global Strategy Webinar

John Thomas

My next global strategy webinar will be held on Wednesday, July 22 at 12:00 PM EST. Bill Davis the Mad Day Trader will be my willing coconspirator. This time, I will be broadcasting to you live from Milan, Italy, provided I can log into the local broadband in Italian, always an iffy prospect. I’ll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, … [Read more...]

How to Buy a Solar System

Solar Panel Installation 2

I have already established in previous research pieces how solar will become the dominant form of energy in the US within 24 years, creating a generational investment opportunity for the shares of those companies today (click: “Why Solar Stocks Are Catching on Fire” and “Taking a Look at Solar City”). It’s just a question of how long it takes Moore’s Law type efficiencies to … [Read more...]

July 21, 2015 – Quote of the day


“Green technology is one of the best investment opportunities we’ve ever seen. We are used to seeing billion dollar market opportunities. Here, we’re seeing a trillion dollar opportunity.” said venture capitalist Steve Jurvetson. … [Read more...]

July 20, 2015

Global Market CommentsJuly 20, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(WHY DAX IS THE NEW LEAD CONTRACT),(DAX), (SPY), (AAPL), (FXY), (YCS), (GLD), (QQQ),(WHO SAYS THERE AREN’T ANY JOBS?),(TESTIMONIAL) German Dax (EOD) DEUT ($DAX)SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)Apple Inc. (AAPL) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY)ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)PowerShares QQQ Trust, … [Read more...]

Why DAX is the New Lead Contract

Road Signs Morocco

I am writing this to you from the back seat of a Toyota Land Cruiser as it winds its way over the legendary Tizi n’Tichka Pass crossing the High Atlas Mountains of Morocco. I am fleeing the blistering 110-degree heat of the Sahara Desert on the way to the fabled thousand-year-old city of Marrakesh. I am typing so I don’t have to endure the suspense of seeing how my driver is … [Read more...]

Who Says There Aren’t Any Jobs?

Marlon Brando

While recently winging my way across the South Pacific a few months ago, I spotted an unusual job offer: WANTED: Social worker, tax free salary of $60,000 with free accommodation and transportation, no experience necessary, must be flexible and self-sufficient. With the unemployment rate at 5.3%, and running as high as 45% for recent college grads, I was amazed that they were … [Read more...]


John Thomas

I've been reading your blog for a while and found it a helpful beacon in a sea of confusing and contradictory information as I try and make sense of the world (and try and make money from sense!). Kind regards. Toby London, England … [Read more...]

July 20, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Policeman - Woman - Ticket

“If a cop follows you for 500 miles, you’re going to get a ticket,” said Oracle of Omaha Warren Buffet, in reference to Bank of America’s many legal problems. … [Read more...]

July 17, 2015

Global Market CommentsJuly 17, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(JULY 22 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),(THE GLOBAL CONSEQUENCES OF THE CHINESE STOCK COLLAPSE),(FXI), (FCX), (GLD), (SLV), (PALL), (FXA), (TLT)(THOUGHTS AT SEA ABOARD THE QE2-PART II) iShares China Large-Cap (FXI)Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX)SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)iShares Silver Trust (SLV)ETFS Physical Palladium … [Read more...]

The Global Consequences of the Chinese Stock Market Crash

Cyber Cafe

I am writing this to you from the Historic El Minza Hotel in Tangiers, Morocco. I am overlooking the ancient medina from my top floor suite, which was once occupied by Sir Winston Churchill. When I first arrived, I thought the swirl of his cigar smoke still lingered in the air. There is a brisk wind crossing the Straights, thankfully cooling my room, and in the distant mists, … [Read more...]

Mid Atlantic Thoughts Aboard the Queen Mary 2, Part II

John Thomas-computer

48 degrees, 02.12 minutes North, 043 degrees, 42.08 minutes West, or 1,000 miles south of Greenland. When I visited the computer center, I was stunned to learn that they were offering three hour long classes on Apple products and programs every hour, all day long. They covered iMacs, iPads, IPods, IPhones, and all of the associated software and gizmos. I promptly signed up … [Read more...]

July 17, 2015 – Quote of the Day


“Take 200 round trips to Australia, and you really start to rack up the miles,” said Tom Stoker an automotive sales analyst who just surpassed 10 million frequent flier points on United Airlines. It makes my own 1 million miles seem puny by comparison.   … [Read more...]

July 16, 2015


Time to get on the Disney Bandwagon

Mickey, Minnie, Goofy

I am sitting in the transit lounge of Mohammed V airport in Casablanca, Morocco. Women in brightly colored, flowing burkas, reflecting disparate Berber tribes, sit impatiently, waiting flights to the remote corners of the kingdom. Their hyperactive children are running around aimlessly, their screams eloquently bouncing off the cavernous ceiling. My flight is seven hours … [Read more...]


John Thomas

I hope that this note finds you well. Thank you for everything you do to make my world a better place. I am simply, grateful. Please let JT know I said he’s earned every minute of his upcoming vacation. I am grateful he challenged me to do more, and that I accepted. I hope our paths cross soon, until then stay inside & hydrate. Thank you again…. :) Bill, North … [Read more...]

July 16, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Rudyard Kipling

“I keep six honest serving men. (They taught me all I knew); Their names are What and Why and When and How and Where and Who.” said the writer, Rudyard Kipling. … [Read more...]

July 15, 2015

Global Market Comments July 15, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JULY 31 ZERMATT, SWITZERLAND GLOBAL STRATEGY SEMINAR) (FLYING WITH SIR RICHARD BRANSON) … [Read more...]

Flying with Sir Richard Branson

Richard Branson

As I boarded a Virgin Atlantic 747 to fly from New York to London a few weeks ago, who did I find in the seat next to me, but my old friend, Sir Richard Branson. I first got to know the shaggy haired billionaire entrepreneur 35 years ago in London. I lived in a Georgian mansion I lovingly restored in London’s Little Venice district, and he lived in an historic canal boat next … [Read more...]

July 14, 2015

Global Market Comments July 14, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JULY 22 MILAN, ITALY GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON) (REPORT FROM LONDON), (TESTIMONIAL) … [Read more...]

July 22 Milan, Italy Global Strategy Luncheon

The Duomo, Milan

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy luncheon, which I will be conducting in Milan, Italy on Wednesday, July 22, 2015. A three-course lunch will be followed by an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, … [Read more...]

Report from London

Globe Theater - London

I write this to you from my double suite on the Orient Express crossing the Swiss Alps. My manservant, Charles, is off fetching a cup of tea and steam pressing my white dinner jacket for tonight’s luxury soiree. Customs at London’s Heathrow airport was a breeze, and the new express train whisked me into Paddington in a mere 18 minutes. That night at the Naval & Military … [Read more...]


John Thomas-Cannon

A belated thank you for the time you provided to all of us at the Las Vegas Strategy Luncheon back in May.  My apologies for not submitting a prompter response. I am the Air Force C-17 pilot from Seattle; you graciously gave me additional time on your walk back to the room during the SALT Conference.  I was honored to be a part of your luncheon.  Your advice regarding the … [Read more...]

July 14, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Screwed - Cartoon

“If they don’t screw things up in Washington, stocks here are undervalued. If they do, then stocks are overvalued,” said hedge fund manager, David Tepper, of Appaloosa Management. … [Read more...]

July 13, 2015

Global Market Comments July 13, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (REPORT FROM VENICE), (AN EVENING WITH TRAVEL GURU ARTHUR FROMMER) … [Read more...]

Report from Venice


If you ever need someone to owe you a big favor, make sure it is the world’s best hotel. That is what I discovered when I checked into the legendary Cipriani Hotel in Venice, Italy. I had booked their cheapest room at $1,500 a day. Due to a screw up on the reservations, I learned to my great distress, that I could stay only one night. The good news was that they graciously … [Read more...]

An Evening with Travel Guru Arthur Frommer

Europe on $5 a Day, cover

Travel guru, Arthur Frommer, says that now is the best time to travel in 20 years, thanks to a combination of a strong dollar and desperate price-cutting forced by the recession. Four years after oil hit an historic peak at $148/barrel, when $500 fuel surcharges abounded, and the demise of the travel industry was widely predicted, costs in some countries, like Mexico and Costa … [Read more...]

July 10, 2015

Global Market Comments July 10, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE FALLING MARKET FOR KIDS), (HOLLYWOOD CASHES IN ON WALL STREET TROUBLES), (THOUGHTS AT SEA ABOARD THE QE2-PART I) … [Read more...]

The Falling Market for Kids


Until the 19th century, children used to provide income and security for their parents as they worked on the family farm. That dynamic continued when industrialization brought families into the cities and kids into the factories. Since then, children have been a great short. A hundred years of state mandated education and child labor laws increased the cost of raising … [Read more...]

Hollywood Cashes in on Wall Street’s Troubles

Demi Moore

I have done many things in my life: hedge fund manager, pilot, cowboy, journalist, stockbroker, mountain climber, translator, guide, etc, etc. etc. Now add technical consultant to Hollywood to the list. According to the New York Times, Simon Baker, star of the TV show “The Mentalist”, is using the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader as a resource to humanize Wall Street traders … [Read more...]

Mid Atlantic Thoughts Aboard the Queen Mary 2, Part I

Queen Mary

Location: 48 degrees, 02.12 minutes North, 043 degrees, 42.08 minutes West, or 1,421 nautical miles ENE of New York. The Queen Mary 2 is currently plowing its way through a massive fog bank a thousand miles thick, sounding the foghorn every two minutes. Visibility is less than 100 yards, and the waves are a rough 12 feet high. The captain has closed the outside decks for fear … [Read more...]

July 10, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Stop Watch

“For several decades on Wall Street, the short term sensibility has been encouraged and compensated very highly,” said Michael Lewis, author of “The Big Short.” … [Read more...]

July 9, 2015

Global Market CommentsJuly 9, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(AUGUST 3 ZURICH, SWITZERLAND GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON)(THE ULTRA BULL ARGUMENT FOR GOLD),(GLD), (GDX), (ABX), (SLV),(PLAY CHINA’S YUAN FROM THE LONG SIDE),(CYB), ($SSEC), (EEM) SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)Market Vectors ETF Trust - Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX)iShares Silver Trust … [Read more...]

The Ultra Bull Argument for Gold

John Thomas -Gold

I have been an unmitigated bear on the price of gold for the past three years. In recent years, the world has been obsessed with yields, chasing them down to historic levels across all asset classes. It’s all become one giant paper chase. The barbarous relic, which yields nothing, costs you money to store it and carries hefty transactions costs, doesn’t fit anywhere in such a … [Read more...]

Play China’s Yuan from the Long Side

Girl - Chinese

One of the oldest games in the foreign exchange market is to always buy the currencies of strong countries that are growing and to sell short the currencies of the weak countries that are shrinking. Any doubts that China’s Yuan is a huge screaming buy should have been dispelled when news came out that exports have once again started to surge, thanks to the recovery of its … [Read more...]

July 8, 2015 – SPECIAL EDITION – Special Update on the Oil Collapse

John Thomas

Global Market CommentsJuly 8, 2015Fiat Lux EMERGENCY OIL ISSUE Featured Trade:(SPECIAL UPDATE ON THE OIL COLLAPSE),(USO), (XOM), (OXY), (COP), (LINE) United States Oil Fund LP (USO)Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)ConocoPhillips (COP)Linn Energy, LLC (LINE)   The Middle East is a miserable place to be during Ramadan, a month where the … [Read more...]

July 8, 2015


The Two Century Dollar Short

10 Dollar Bill

Any trader will tell you the trend is your friend and the overwhelming direction for the US dollar for the last 220 years has been down. Our first Treasury Secretary, Alexander Hamilton, found himself constantly embroiled in sex scandals. Take a ten dollar bill out of your wallet and you’re looking at a world class horn dog, a swordsman of the first order. When he wasn’t … [Read more...]

CNN’s John Lewis; the Death of a Colleague


I was deeply saddened by the death, 5 years ago, of my old friend, CNN Asia correspondent, John Lewis, a legend in television journalism. I first met John in Tokyo at the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Japan back in 1974, when he was a decorated Vietnam vet from Ohio trying to claw his way into TV, bootstrap style. Personable and easy going, he was one of the few in the club … [Read more...]

July 7, 2015

Global Market CommentsJuly 7, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(MY BRIEFING FROM THE JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF), (XLK),(WHY THE JGB MARKET MAY BE READY TO COLLAPSE),(FXY), (DXJ), (EWJ) The Select Sector SPDR Trust - The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY)WisdomTree Trust - WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund (DXJ)iShares, Inc. - iShares … [Read more...]

My Briefing from the Joint Chiefs of Staff

General James Cartwright

I have always considered the US military to have one of the world’s greatest research organizations. The frustrating thing is that their “clients” only consist of the President and a handful of three and four star generals. So I thought that I would review my notes from a dinner I had with General James E. Cartwright, the former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and … [Read more...]

Why the JGB Market May Be Ready to Collapse

Population Pyramid chart

When I first arrived in Japan in 1974, international investors widely expected the country to collapse, a casualty of the overnight quadrupling of oil prices from $3 per barrel to $12, and the global recession that followed. Japanese borrowers were only able to tap foreign debt markets by paying a 200 basis point premium to the market, a condition that came to be known as … [Read more...]

July 7, 2015 – Quote of the Day


“Free choice is not relevant in financial markets because there are too many players. A stock with a million holders is much more predictable than one with five,” said Charles Nenner, of Charles Nenner Research in Amsterdam. … [Read more...]

July 6, 2015 – Special Edition

Global Market CommentsJuly 6, 2015Fiat Lux SPECIAL GREEK DEFAULT ISSUE Featured Trade:(CASHING IN ON THE GREEK CRISIS),(SPY), (TLT), (VIX), (FXE), (FXY), (GLD), (SLV) SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)iShares Trust - iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX)CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE)CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY)SPDR Gold Trust … [Read more...]

Cashing in on the Greek Crisis

George Papandreou

Try as I may, there is absolutely no way to escape a financial crisis in the modern world anymore, not even in the dusty, remote Western Sahara village of Taghazout, Morocco. There is an Ebola Virus outbreak 1,000 miles to the south, and 35 British tourists were massacred on a beach in neighboring Tunisia last week. There were exactly four passengers on my flight from Lisbon … [Read more...]

July 6, 2015

Global Market Comments July 6, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JULY 22 MILAN, ITALY GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON) (THE SOLAR ROAD REVISITED)   … [Read more...]

The Solar Road Revisited


“The Solar Road Revisited”. Somehow this modernized version of Bob Dylan’s epic folk album doesn’t quite ring true when couched in terms of our hyper accelerating 21st century technology. Perhaps a Millennial bard will improve on this in the future on iTunes, Pandora, and Beats, of course? Yet, such a futuristic invention has already been created, is raising money through … [Read more...]

July 2, 2015

Global Market CommentsJuly 2, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(JULY 13 MARRAKESH, MOROCCO GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON)(WHERE THE ECONOMIST BIG MAC INDEX FINDS CURRENCY VALUE),(FXF), (FXY), (FXA), (FXE), (CYB)(CATCHING UP WITH DOWNTON ABBEY),(TESTIMONIAL) CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust (FXF)CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY)CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust … [Read more...]

July 13 Marrakesh, Morocco Global Strategy Luncheon


Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy luncheon, which I will be conducting in Marrakesh, Morocco on Monday, July 13, 2015. A three-course lunch will be followed by an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in … [Read more...]

Where The Economist “Big Mac” Index Finds Currency Value


My former employer, The Economist, once the ever tolerant editor of my flabby, disjointed, and juvenile prose (Thanks Peter and Marjorie), has released its “Big Mac” index of international currency valuations. Although initially launched by an imaginative journalist as a joke three decades ago, I have followed it religiously and found it an amazingly accurate predictor of … [Read more...]

Catching Up With Downton Abbey

John Thomas

I decided to flee the madness in London for a day and visit some old friends in the countryside, the 8th Earl and Countess of Carnarvon. The late 7th Earl was an early investor in my first hedge fund and I have kept in touch with the family ever since. His grandfather, the 5th Earl gained fame and fortune from his co-discovery of King Tut’s tomb in Egypt’s Valley of the … [Read more...]

July 1, 2015


Last Chance to Attend the July 2 – Lisbon, Portugal Global Strategy Luncheon

Lisbon, Portugal 2

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy luncheon, which I will be conducting in Lisbon, Portugal on Thursday, July 2, 2015. A three course lunch will be provided. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I’ll be throwing a few surprises out there … [Read more...]

The Best Financial Book Ever

The Ascent of Money

I have just finished reading the best financial book ever and I have read most of them. It is The Ascent of Money: a Financial History of the World by Harvard professor Niall Ferguson. It gives you a great explanation of how the broad sweep of history delivered us to the doorstep of today’s crisis. Ferguson starts with an ancient accounting system written on clay tablets in … [Read more...]

A Day with Tom Friedman of the New York Times

John Thomas with Tom Freidman

I took a day off to attend the New York Times Global Forum at San Francisco’s Sony Metreon Center. The goal was to put together 400 of the most forward thinking and influential minds in the Bay Area, stand back, and see what happened. It was organized by my old friend, fellow traveler, and veteran journalist, Tom Friedman. Tom and I date back to the old days in Beirut, during … [Read more...]

July 1, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Isaac Newton

“I can calculate the motions of heavenly bodies, but never the madness of crowds,” said Sir Isaac Newton, the inventor of calculus and discoverer of Newton’s Laws, who lost his entire fortune in a 17th century investment scam called “the south Sea Bubble.” … [Read more...]

June 30, 2015

Global Market CommentsJune 30, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(JULY 1 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),(AUGUST 3 ZURICH, SWITZERLAND GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON)(THE NEW COLD WAR)(WHY I LOVE/HATE THE OIL COMPANIES), (XOM), (USO) Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)United States Oil Fund LP (USO) … [Read more...]

The New Cold War

Ian Bremmer

My friend, Ian Bremmer of the Eurasia Group, a global risk analyst who I regularly follow, has published an outstanding book entitled The End of the Free Markets: Who Wins the War Between States and Corporations. I find this highly depressing, as it takes me as long to read one of Ian’s books as it takes him to write another one. To read a review of his highly insightful tome … [Read more...]