July 1, 2015

Global Market Comments July 1, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND THE JULY 2 LISBON, PORTUGAL GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON) (THE BEST FINANCIAL BOOK EVER), (A DAY WITH TOM FRIEDMAN OF THE NEW YORK TIMES) … [Read more...]

Last Chance to Attend the July 2 – Lisbon, Portugal Global Strategy Luncheon

Lisbon, Portugal 2

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy luncheon, which I will be conducting in Lisbon, Portugal on Thursday, July 2, 2015. A three course lunch will be provided. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I’ll be throwing a few surprises out there … [Read more...]

The Best Financial Book Ever

The Ascent of Money

I have just finished reading the best financial book ever and I have read most of them. It is The Ascent of Money: a Financial History of the World by Harvard professor Niall Ferguson. It gives you a great explanation of how the broad sweep of history delivered us to the doorstep of today’s crisis. Ferguson starts with an ancient accounting system written on clay tablets in … [Read more...]

A Day with Tom Friedman of the New York Times

John Thomas with Tom Freidman

I took a day off to attend the New York Times Global Forum at San Francisco’s Sony Metreon Center. The goal was to put together 400 of the most forward thinking and influential minds in the Bay Area, stand back, and see what happened. It was organized by my old friend, fellow traveler, and veteran journalist, Tom Friedman. Tom and I date back to the old days in Beirut, during … [Read more...]

July 1, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Isaac Newton

“I can calculate the motions of heavenly bodies, but never the madness of crowds,” said Sir Isaac Newton, the inventor of calculus and discoverer of Newton’s Laws, who lost his entire fortune in a 17th century investment scam called “the south Sea Bubble.” … [Read more...]

June 30, 2015

Global Market CommentsJune 30, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(JULY 1 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),(AUGUST 3 ZURICH, SWITZERLAND GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON)(THE NEW COLD WAR)(WHY I LOVE/HATE THE OIL COMPANIES), (XOM), (USO) Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)United States Oil Fund LP (USO) … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss the July 1 Global Strategy Webinar

John Thomas

My next global strategy webinar will be held on Wednesday, July 1 at 12:00 PM EST. Bill Davis the Mad Day Trader will be my willing coconspirator. This time, I will be broadcasting to you live from Lisbon, Portugal, provided that I can log into the local broadband in Portuguese. I’ll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, precious metal, … [Read more...]

August 3 Zurich, Switzerland Global Strategy Luncheon

Zurich

Come join me at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy luncheon, which I will be conducting in the banking capitol of Zurich, Switzerland at 12:00 PM on Monday, August 3, 2015. A three course lunch will be provided. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I’ll … [Read more...]

The New Cold War

Ian Bremmer

My friend, Ian Bremmer of the Eurasia Group, a global risk analyst who I regularly follow, has published an outstanding book entitled The End of the Free Markets: Who Wins the War Between States and Corporations. I find this highly depressing, as it takes me as long to read one of Ian’s books as it takes him to write another one. To read a review of his highly insightful tome … [Read more...]

Why I Love/Hate the Oil Companies

oil

The first thing I do when I get up every morning is to curse the oil companies as the blood sucking scourges of modern civilization. I then fall down on my knees and thank God that we have the oil companies. This is why petroleum engineers are getting $100,000 straight out of college, while English and political science major are going straight on to food stamps. I recommend … [Read more...]

June 30, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Father & Son-doors

Sometimes we stare so long at a door that is closing that we see too late the one that is open,” said Alexander Graham Bell, inventor of the telephone. … [Read more...]

June 29, 2015

Global Market Comments June 29, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JULY 31 ZERMATT, SWITZERLAND GLOBAL STRATEGY SEMINAR) (THE CHINA VIEW FROM 30,000 FEET), (FXI), (DBC), (DYY), (DBA), (PHO). (TRIBUTE TO A GIANT OF JOURNALISM, ROY ESSOYAN) (TESTIMONIAL) … [Read more...]

July 31 Zermatt, Switzerland Global Strategy Seminar

John Thomas - Switzerland

Come join me for afternoon tea for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Seminar, which I will be conducting high in the Alps in Zermatt, Switzerland at 2:00 PM on Friday, July 31, 2015. The guests and I will engage in an open discussion on the crucial issues facing investors today. Coffee, tea, and schnapps will be made available, along with light snacks. I’ll be … [Read more...]

Tribute to a Giant of Journalism, Roy Essoyan

Roy Essoyan

I had been filled with great sadness when I had learned of the passing of an old friend and mentor, Roy Essoyan, the former Tokyo bureau chief for the Associated Press. When I was a young, wet behind the ears financial journalist in Japan during the early seventies, Roy had the charity to take me under his wing and teach me a few tricks of the trade. We often met for lunch at … [Read more...]

Testimonial

BusinessJohnThomasProfileMap2-1

After losing money with a million different advisory services and registered brokers I finally found YOU, and YOU make it all worth it!!! Thanks a bunch. I have so much confidence in you! Stefano Quarona, Sesia, Italy … [Read more...]

June 26, 2015

Global Market Comments June 26, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JULY 1 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (JULY 22 MILAN, ITALY GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON) (NOTICE TO MILITARY SUBSCRIBERS), (CHINA’S COMING DEMOGRAPHIC NIGHTMARE)   … [Read more...]

Notice to Military Subscribers

Soldier

To the dozens of subscribers in Afghanistan and the surrounding ships at sea, thank you for your service! I think it is very wise to use your free time to read my letter and learn about financial markets in preparation for an entry into the financial services when you muster out. Nobody is going to call you a baby killer and shun you, as they did when I returned from … [Read more...]

China’s Coming Demographic Nightmare

emperor

Thanks to China's “one child only” policy adopted 30 years ago, and a cultural preference for children who grow up to become family safety nets, there are now 32 million more boys under the age of 20 than girls. Large scale interference with the natural male:female ratio has been tracked with some fascination by demographers for years, and is constantly generating unintended … [Read more...]

June 26, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Wicked Witch

“I’d much rather have the Wicked Witch of the East go away. We’d be way better off if we ended quantitative easing real fast so this scapegoat can get behind us,” said Ken Fisher of Fisher Investments. … [Read more...]

June 25, 2015

Global Market Comments June 25, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND THE JUNE 29 LONDON STRATEGY LUNCHEON) (AMERICA’S NATIVE INDIAN ECONOMY) … [Read more...]

Last Chance to Attend the June 29, 2015 London Strategy Luncheon

Big_Ben_8583a

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in London on Monday, June 29, 2015. A three course lunch is included. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I’ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Enough … [Read more...]

America’s Native Indian Economy

indian

When I was remodeling my 160-year-old London house, the chimney was in desperate need of attention. After the bricklayer crawled up the fireplace, he found a yellowed and somewhat singed envelope addressed to Santa Claus. Thinking it was placed there by my kids, he handed it over to me. In it was a letter penned in a childlike scrawl, written with a quill and ink, dated … [Read more...]

June 25, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Woman-Anxiety

“There’s a lot of performance anxiety out there right now. There’s nothing worse than sitting on cash watching a market go up double digits,” said Tom Lee, chief US equity strategist of JP Morgan. … [Read more...]

June 24, 2015

Global Market Comments June 24, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JULY 13 MARRAKESH, MOROCCO GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON) (ARE JUNK BONDS PEAKING?), (JNK), (HYG), (A TOUCHDOWN FOR USC), (INTC)  SPDR Series Trust - SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) iShares Trust - iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) Intel Corporation (INTC) … [Read more...]

July 13 Marrakesh, Morocco Global Strategy Luncheon

Morroco

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy luncheon, which I will be conducting in Marrakesh, Morocco on Monday, July 13, 2015. A three-course lunch will be followed by an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in … [Read more...]

Are Junk Bonds Peaking?

Childrens Game

There is no happier corner of the fixed income universe than junk bonds (JNK), (HYG), which have been soaring like a bat out of hell for the past four years. Average yields for the bond class most sensitive to the economy have collapsed from 18% to near an all-time low of 6%, a scant 315 basis points over ten year Treasury bonds (TLT). The ETF (JNK), which I have been … [Read more...]

A Touchdown for USC

David and Dana Dornsife

One of my many alma maters, the University of Southern California, announced that they had received their largest private donation ever. As a third generation alumni of this fanatical football factory (I went to school with Mark Harmon, Lynn Swan, and oops, OJ Simpson), I still receive their alumni newsletter, where I learned the good news. David and Dana Dornsife gave $200 … [Read more...]

June 24, 2015 – Quote of the day

Woman in glasses

“The stock market is one of those things that looks better the more expensive it gets,” said Barbara Marcin, portfolio manager of the Gabelli Dividend Growth Fund. … [Read more...]

June 23, 2015

Global Market Comments June 23, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JULY 2 LISBON, PORTUGAL GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON) (DIAMONDS ARE STILL AN INVESTOR’S BEST FRIEND), (SO YOU THINK THEY’RE NOT WATCHING YOUR PC?) … [Read more...]

Diamonds Are Still an Investor’s Best Friend

ring

If you forgot to buy your loved one a birthday present and spent a week sleeping on the sofa, eating canned food, and cleaning out the cat box, you now have a chance to redeem yourself. A revolutionary new website exists called Mazal Diamond, which promises to turn the online jewelry business upside down. I went to the privately held company’s website at … [Read more...]

So You Think they’re not Watching Your PC?

Computer

Hey! You there, staring at this monitor. This is your PC talking to you. No, not you over there standing in the background. I’m talking to the guy sitting in front of me poking at my keys. Ouch! That one hurt! So you thought no one was watching, did you? Let me set you straight. About a month ago you clicked on a certain website and I installed myself as a cookie on your … [Read more...]

June 23, 2015 – Quote of the Day

gravity

“We are still in the gravitational pull of the Great Recession. I would have to put the likelihood of a double dip recession now up to 50%,” said my old UC Berkeley economics professor, Robert Reich. … [Read more...]

June 22, 2015

Global Market Comments June 22, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (LAST CHANCE TO MEET JOHN THOMAS AND BILL DAVIS AT THE JUNE 25 NEW YORK STRATEGY LUNCHEON) (BE CAREFUL WHO YOU SNITCH ON), (COULD YOU QUALIFY TO BECOME A US CITIZEN?) … [Read more...]

Meet John Thomas and Bill Davis in New York on June 25

Empire State Building

Come join Mad Day Trader Bill Davis and me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Luncheon, which we will be conducting in New York, NY on Thursday, June 25, 2015. An excellent three course lunch will be provided. A PowerPoint presentation will be followed by an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, … [Read more...]

Be Careful Who You Snitch On

Sherron Watkins

Buried in the Dodd-Frank financial reform bill are massive financial rewards for turning in your boss. The SEC is hoping that multimillion-dollar rewards amounting to 10%-30% of sanction amounts will drive a stampede of whistleblowers to their doors with evidence of malfeasance and fraud by their employers. If such rules were in place at the time of the settlement with Goldman … [Read more...]

Could You Qualify to Become a US Citizen?

Fireworks

The coming Fourth of July celebration brings back memories of my late wife’s campaign to become an American citizen, who originally came from Japan. Part of the process required a verbal quiz about US history and government. Our family spent a year energetically prepping her, with nightly grilling’s over dinner about the most obscure details of our independent form of … [Read more...]

June 22, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Blowing Bubbles

“If there were no way to short stocks, the probability of stock market bubbles would be much greater,” said hedge fund manager, Bill Ackman, of Pershing Square. … [Read more...]

June 19, 2015

Global Market Comments June 19, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (TRADING THE KENNEDY ASSASSINATION) … [Read more...]

Trading the Kennedy Assassination

Kennedy Motorcade

Passing through Dallas, Texas on the way to my Strategy luncheon, I couldn’t help but remember the assassination of President John F. Kennedy, on November 22, 1963, nearly 52 years ago. The tragedy offers valuable lessons for today’s traders, although we have to travel a circuitous route to get there. It was one of those epochal events, where people remember exactly what they … [Read more...]

June 18, 2015

Global Market Comments June 18, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (AN AFTERNOON WITH GOVERNOR JERRY BROWN), (TESTIMONIAL) … [Read more...]

An Afternoon With California Governor Jerry Brown

Jerry Brown 2

On my last trip to my lakefront estate at Lake Tahoe, I stopped off at the state capital, Sacramento, to look in on my old friend, Governor Jerry Brown. It is crucial that readers across the country, and indeed, around the world, know what Jerry is thinking. California has always been a “pathfinder” state, and what starts here is often adopted across the country. This little … [Read more...]

Testimonial

BusinessJohnThomasProfileMap2-1

I can't tell you how much I enjoy your blog. It is the first place I go every morning and I miss you on the weekends. I stumbled upon your site about 4 months ago and have been addicted to it since day one. I really appreciate not only your insight into the markets, but also your global and historical perspectives. All of this served up with your great sense of humor makes it … [Read more...]

June 18, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Surfer

“You are either looking out five days or five years in this market. You’re either a surfer or a yacht. There are no small boats anymore,” said Bob Iaccino, a trader at Yourtrading room.com. … [Read more...]

June 17, 2015

Global Market Comments June 17, 2015 Fiat Lux (TAKING OFF FOR EUROPE AND AFRICA) … [Read more...]

Taking off for Europe

Electrical Adaptors

Terrorist attacks, mass beheadings, and crashing airlines all spell one thing to me. Travel bargains! Of course, my first choice for a vacation destination this year was the civil war in Syria so I could find out on the ground what is really happening there. In addition, I could shop for a refugee camp in Jordan for one of my non-profits to help support. Unfortunately, my … [Read more...]

June 16, 2015

Global Market CommentsJune 16, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND THE JUNE 19 DALLAS, TEXAS GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON),(MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER HITS 26% GAIN IN 2015),(SPY), (AAPL), (GS), (FCX), (PANW), (GILD), (FXE), (EUO)(THE COST OF AN AGING WORLD),(EWJ), (EWI), (EWG), (EWQ), (EWL), (EWU), (PIN),(TESTIMONIAL) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)Apple Inc. (AAPL)The … [Read more...]

June 19 Dallas Global Strategy Luncheon

Cowboys

Come join me at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy luncheon, which I will be conducting in Dallas, Texas at 12:00 PM on Friday, June 19, 2015. The guests and I will engage in an open discussion on the crucial issues facing investors today. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to … [Read more...]

Mad Hedge Fund Trader Hits 26% Gain in 2015

John Thomas

I am sitting here typing away at the picnic table atop Grizzly Peak in Berkeley, California. The sun is setting into an ochre Pacific in the West. A massive blanket of fog is silently rolling in from the sea, covering the compact city of San Francisco. Only the twin towers of the Golden Gate Bridge, the pyramidal Transamerica Building, and Sutro Tower are poking out through … [Read more...]

The Cost of an Ageing World

Lady - Raspberries

Regular readers of this letter are well aware of my fascination with demographics as a market driver. They go a long way towards explaining if asset prices are facing a long-term structural headwind or tailwind. The great thing about the data is that you can get precise, high quality numbers 20, or even 50 years in advance. No matter how hard governments may try, you can’t … [Read more...]

Testimonial

John Thomas - Turkey

First, thanks for all that you do.  To have a job that you love, and one that does so much good for so many families is a great blessing to all of us.  I am a new retiree, and a recent new subscriber. I followed your posts for at least two years before pulling the trigger. Knowing that you and your group were there gave me the courage to retire a little earlier than I would … [Read more...]

June 15, 2015

Global Market CommentsJune 15, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(BILL DAVIS TAKES OVER THE MAD DAY TRADER),(JUNE 25 NEW YORK STRATEGY LUNCHEON),(ONSHORING TAKES ANOTHER GREAT LEAP FORWARD),(TSLA), (UMX), (EWW) Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA)ProShares Ultra MSCI Mexico Capped IMI (UMX)  iShares MSCI Mexico Capped (EWW) … [Read more...]

Bill Davis Takes Over the Mad Day Trader

John Thomas

All good things must come to an end, and Mad Day Trader Jim Parker has decided to move on with his career elsewhere. We wish him the best of luck in his new endeavors. Fortunately, my long time friend and colleague, Bill Davis, has agreed to take over the Mad Day Trader service starting from today. Those who attended the June 10 Global Strategy Webinar have already met Bill … [Read more...]

Onshoring Takes another Great Leap Forward

Man Fixing Machine

Have you tried to hire a sewing machine operator lately? I haven’t, but I have friends running major apparel companies who have (guess where I get all those tight fitting jeans?). Guess what? There aren’t any to be had. Since, 1990, some 77% of the American textiles workforce has been lost, when China joined the world economy in force, and the offshoring trend took … [Read more...]

June 15, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Baseball

“This is very bullish for markets. It’s bullish for markets intermediate term. Before, I thought we were in the seventh inning of a four-year bull market. Two waiters just came in and delivered another punch bowl. We’re going into extra innings, baby,” said Stanley Druckenmiller of hedge fund Duquesne Capital Management. … [Read more...]

June 12, 2015

Global Market Comments June 12, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JULY 31 ZERMATT, SWITZERLAND GLOBAL STRATEGY SEMINAR) (MY OLD PAL, LEONARDO FIBONACCI), (TESTIMONIAL) … [Read more...]

My Old Pal, Leonardo Fibonacci

Fibonacci Sequence - Power Plant Chimney

I remember the 12th century like it was yesterday. In those days, the leading intellectuals used to get together and drink wine by the gallon, which then was really little more than rotten grape juice. The problem was that we all used to pass out before anybody came up with a great idea. Then someone started importing coffee from the Middle East and thinkers stayed awake long … [Read more...]

Testimonial

John Thomas

Thank John for his ceaseless banter. I enjoy this service so much. Great stories!!!! I hope our paths cross soon. Thank you Bill North Carolina … [Read more...]

June 12, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Hillary Clinton

“Some in the media have quoted me using a four letter word to dismiss the Correspondents’ dinner as a concern. I have not sought a correction,” said former Secretary of State and presidential contender, Hillary Clinton. … [Read more...]

June 11, 2015

Global Market CommentsJune 11, 2015Fiat Lux SPECIAL ITALIAN ISSUE Featured Trade:(JUNE 29 LONDON STRATEGY LUNCHEON)(WHAT TO DO ABOUT ITALY?),(EWI), (HEDJ), (TI), (E), (FXE), (EUO) iShares MSCI Italy Capped (EWI)WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity ETF (HEDJ)Telecom Italia S.p.A. (TI)Eni SpA (E)CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO) … [Read more...]

What to do About Italy?

John Thomas-Roman Colosseum

When British Prime Minister, Winston Churchill, was informed that Italy joined the side of the Germans in the Second World War, he infamously replied, “Well, that’s only fair. They were our allies in the First World War.” Many investment strategists are similarly vexed today, trying to decide what to do about the home of the Roman Empire. Since January, the Italy iShares ETF … [Read more...]

June 11, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Man holding nose

“Revenues stink in the banking area. This decade will be the worst for revenue growth since the Great Depression,” said Mike Mayo, the controversial banking analyst at the Asian broker and research house, CLSA. … [Read more...]

June 10, 2015

Global Market CommentsJune 10, 2015Fiat Lux SPECIAL GOLD AND SILVER ISSUE Featured Trade:(JUNE 19 DALLAS, TEXAS GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON)(THE TERRIBLE NEWS THE BOND MARKET IS TELLING TO GOLD),(GLD), (GDX), (SIL), (ABX), (REMX), (SLV) SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)Market Vectors ETF Trust - Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)Global X Funds - Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL)Barrick … [Read more...]

The Terrible News the Bond Market is Telling to Gold

John Thomas -Gold

The news from Australia’s Perth Mint was horrific last week. The refiner for the world’s second largest producer reported that sales hit a new three year low. And the worst is yet to come. Shipments of gold coins and bars plunged to 21,671 ounces in May, compared to 26,545 ounces in April. Silver sales have seen similar declines. I have been warning readers for the last … [Read more...]

June 10, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Financials Knife in Hand

“The stupid market cliché about catching a falling knife is actually happening now. This is a falling knife. You have to look at the market as a hot air balloon. You only want to grab it as it is going up. I don’t think dollar cost averaging is the plan here,” said Bob Iaccino at Traderoutlook.com. … [Read more...]

June 9, 2015

Global Market CommentsJune 9, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(WEDNESDAY JUNE 10 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),(JUNE 22 WASHINGTON DC GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON),(THE DEATH OF MCDONALD’S), (MCD), (WFM) (SHAK), (CMG), (PNRA), (MO), (YUM) McDonald's Corp. (MCD)Whole Foods Market, Inc. (WFM)Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK)Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG)Panera Bread Company (PNRA)Altria Group … [Read more...]

June 22 Washington DC Global Strategy Luncheon

Washington DC

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy luncheon, which I will be conducting in Washington DC on Monday, June 22, 2015. A three-course lunch will be followed by an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, … [Read more...]

The Death of McDonald’s

John Thoms - In-Out

McDonald’s (MCD) has always figured large in my life. I grew up next door to one of the first five stands built in the country, in the Los Angeles metropolitan area. That’s when visionary milkshake mixer salesman, Ray Kroc, started to franchise his revolutionary new ideas for delivering fast food. One of my fondest childhood memories was when my mother used to take us out to … [Read more...]

June 9, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Masks

“It’s a manic depressive economy. Every other month we decide we might be in a recession,” said Kevin Hassett of the American Enterprise Institute. … [Read more...]

June 8, 2015

Global Market CommentsJune 8, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(JUNE 25 NEW YORK STRATEGY LUNCHEON)(WHY STOCKS HATED THE MAY NONFARM PAYROLL),(SPY), (TLT), (IWM), (FXE), (VIX),(HAVE CALM WATERS RETURNED FOR SHIPPING STOCKS?),($BDI), (DRYS), (SEA), (GNK), (RIO), (BHP), (KOL), (FXA), (EWA) SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) iShares Trust - iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF … [Read more...]

Why Stocks Hated the May Nonfarm Payroll

Pogo Stick

When the US Department of Labor announced its blockbuster May nonfarm payroll showing a 280,000 gain, stocks behaved like the world had just ended. The 32,000 in March and April upward revisions didn’t help either. You would think data showing that the economy is improving much faster than many realized would be positive for “RISK ON” equity investments. It wasn’t. Now, … [Read more...]

Have Calm Waters Returned for Shipping Stocks?

Lutine Bell

The shipping stocks have had an OK year so far in 2015. The big question remains: “Is it real,” and “Is it sustainable?” This sector has been down for so long that most investors left it for dead ages ago. All that was missing was the tolling of the Lutine Bell at the Lloyds of London insurance exchange to mark news of a sunken ship. Lured by the heroin of artificially cheap … [Read more...]

June 5, 2015

Global Market Comments June 5, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (WEDNESDAY MAY 13 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (JUNE 19 DALLAS, TEXAS GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (WHY FOOD PLAYS ARE ABOUT TO EXPLODE), (MOS), (POT), (AGU), (DBA), (MOO) The Mosaic Company (MOS)Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (POT)Agrium Inc. (AGU)PowerShares DB Agriculture ETF (DBA)Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF … [Read more...]

Why Food Plays are About to Explode

India - Food

Pack your portfolios with agricultural plays like Potash (POT), Mosaic (MOS), and Agrium (AGU) if Dr. Paul Ehrlich is just partially right about the impending collapse in the world’s food supply. You might even throw in long positions in wheat, corn, soybeans, and rice. The never dull and often controversial Stanford biology professor told me he expects that global warming is … [Read more...]

June 4, 2015

Global Market Comments June 4, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JUNE 29 LONDON STRATEGY LUNCHEON) (AN EVENING WITH THE CHINESE INTELLIGENCE SERVICE), (FXI), (CYB), (BIDU), (CHL), (BYDDF), (CHA) iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) WisdomTree Chinese Yuan (CYB) Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) China Mobile Limited (CHL) BYD Company Ltd. (BYDDF) China Telecom Corp. Ltd. (CHA) … [Read more...]

An Evening with the Chinese Intelligence Service

Chinese Woman

Watching the Shanghai double over the past six months brought back memories of my four decade long relationship with the People’s Republic of China. I normally avoid the diplomatic circuit, as the few non-committal comments and soggy appetizers I get aren’t worth the investment of time. But I jumped at the chance to celebrate the 62nd anniversary of the founding of the … [Read more...]

June 3, 2015

Global Market Comments June 3, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JUNE 22 WASHINGTON DC GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON) (THE GLOBAL IMPACT OF THE NEW JAPANESE IRA’S), (DXJ), (FXY), (YCS), (NMR), (SNE), (A SPECIAL NOTE ON EXERCISED OPTIONS) WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity (DXJ)CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY)ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)Nomura Holdings, Inc. (NMR)Sony Corporation … [Read more...]

The Global Impact of the New Japanese IRA’s

Girl - Ticker

Nearly two years ago, the Japanese government introduced the Individual Retirement Account for individual investors in Japan for the first time. The move was part of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s multifaceted efforts to revive Japan’s economy, and could unleash as much as $690 billion in net buying into Japanese equities by 2018. The move was inspired by American IRA’s, which … [Read more...]

A Special Note on Exercised Options

John Thomas

I received a few emails from readers whose option holdings have already been exercised against them, and have asked me for advice on how best to proceed. In the last month, we have enjoyed several positions that have gone deep in the money, earning tidy profits. So, it is important that we tread carefully to get the full benefit. So, here we go. The options traded on US … [Read more...]

June 2, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Ronald Reagan

“There were three things the Russians were afraid of: AIDS, Jewish people, and Ronald Reagan. They were afraid he was going to push the button,” said KGB defector, Jack Barsky. … [Read more...]

June 2, 2015

Global Market CommentsJune 2, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(JUNE 25 NEW YORK STRATEGY LUNCHEON),(HOW THE MARKET WILL PLAY OUT FOR THE REST OF 2015),(AAPL), (IBB), (XLV), (XLK), (HACK), (VIX),(T), (MO), (COP), (LINN),(TESTIMONIAL),(KISS THAT UNION JOB GOODBYE) Apple Inc. (AAPL)iShares Trust - iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB)Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV)The … [Read more...]

How The Market Will Play Out for the Rest of 2015

Girl under Paper

Sideways, then up. That is the short version. Now for the long one. Markets are caught in a vice right now. It is too late to buy and too soon to sell. So, institutions are sitting on their hands, index charts are doing their best to imitate the topography of Kansas, and the Volatility Index (VIX) is plumbing nine year lows. The stock market has seen the narrowest range … [Read more...]

Testimonial

John Thomas - Postal box

Going to renew my membership today because you provide great ideas. I think you have a lot of integrity in your messages.  We may not agree politically, but you have nailed many of the concepts you shepherd.  I have become a fan and look forward to your writing every day Don Cleveland, Ohio I’m Such a Saint! … [Read more...]

Kiss That Union Job Goodbye

Line Up - Queue

Those of you counting on getting your old union assembly line job back in Detroit can forget it. The eight year forecast published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that 4.19 million jobs will be gained in the US in professional and business services, followed by 4 million health care and social assistance jobs, while 1.2 million will be lost in manufacturing. This is … [Read more...]

June 2, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Michelangelo's David

In Italy, for 30 years under the Borgias, they had warfare, terror, murder and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love, they had 500 years of democracy and peace - and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock,” said the filmmaker, Orson Wells. … [Read more...]

June 1, 2015

Global Market CommentsJune 1, 2015Fiat Lux SPECIAL CYBER SECURITY ISSUE Featured Trade:(JUNE 19 DALLAS, TEXAS GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON)(THE LETTER FROM THE IRS YOU SHOULD DREAD),(PANW), (CSCO), (FEYE), (FTNT), (CHKP), (JNPR), (SNE) Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW) Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)FireEye, Inc. (FEYE)Fortinet Inc. (FTNT)Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. … [Read more...]

The Letter from the IRS You Should Dread

IRS Investigator

I knew the letter from the IRS sitting in my mail box was bad news just from the color of the paper. It was not light green, the color of a refund check from the United States Treasury. Instead, it was white, warning that it contained some sort of demand, audit notice, or threatened legal action. In fact, it was far worse than that. In the most stilted, bureaucratic … [Read more...]

June 1, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Sugar

There is tremendous amounts of money sitting on the sidelines. There is enormous M&A activity. The greatest thinkers in the corporate world are saying that it is cheaper to buy than to build. This says to me that the stock market still has value in it. We’re a long way from expensive,” said Milton Ezrati senior economist and market strategist for money management giant, … [Read more...]

May 29, 2015

Global Market CommentsMay 29, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(JUNE 29 LONDON STRATEGY LUNCHEON),(THE SECOND AMERICAN INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION),(INDU), (SPY), (QQQ), (GLD), (DBA),(TSLA), (GOOGL), (XLK), (IBB), (XLE) Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU)SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)PowerShares QQQ (QQQ)SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)PowerShares DB Agriculture ETF (DBA)Tesla Motors, Inc. … [Read more...]

The Second American Industrial Revolution

John Thomas

Circulating among Europe's top global strategists last summer, visiting their corner offices, camping out in their vacation villas, or cruising on their yachts, I am increasingly hearing about a new investment theme that will lead markets for the next 20 years: The Second American Industrial Revolution. It goes something like this. You remember the first Industrial … [Read more...]

Testimonial

John Thomas

Hello John, I find your multi dimensional approach to markets are devoid of the usual Blah Blah Blah of most market analysts. It is very worthwhile, and I look forward to you using a lot of common sense and awareness. That being said, regarding myself : I started trading gold in the late sixties and bought my first seat IMM at the CME in 1975 to trade currencies. I mostly … [Read more...]

May 29, 2015 – Quote of the Day

20141230-4

"The Fed is not worried about inflation in the next few years and want growth first, growth second, and growth third. With the stabilization of Europe, the apparent pick up in China, and a US economy still on a reasonable footing, the Fed's heavy leaning to a growth policy should lead to a pretty favorable environment for the markets," said legendary hedge fund manager, David … [Read more...]

May 28, 2015

Global Market CommentsMay 28, 2015Fiat Lux SPECIAL SPACE X ISSUE Featured Trade:(JUNE 22 WASHINGTON DC GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON),(WILL SPACE X BE YOUR NEXT TEN BAGGER?)(EBAY), (TSLA), (SCTY), (BA), (LMT) eBay Inc. (EBAY)Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA)SolarCity Corporation (SCTY)The Boeing Company (BA)Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) … [Read more...]

Will Space X Be Your Next Ten Bagger?

Falcon 9 Rocket

I am constantly on the lookout for ten baggers, stocks that have the potential to rise tenfold over the long term. Look at the great long-term track records compiled by the most outstanding money managers, and they always have a handful of these that account for the bulk of their outperformance, or alpha, as it is known in the industry. I’ve found another live one for you. … [Read more...]

May 28, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Fortune Cooke You're Fired

“The longer you wait to fire someone, the longer it has been since you should have fired them,” said Elon Musk, founder and CEO of Space X and Tesla Motors. … [Read more...]