Be Careful! Your PC is Watching

computer

Hey! You there, staring at this monitor. This is your PC talking to you. No, not you over there standing in the background. I’m talking to the guy sitting in front of me poking at my keys. Ouch! That one hurt! So you thought no one was watching, did you? Let me straighten you out. About a month ago you clicked on a certain website, and I installed myself as a cookie on your … [Read more...]

May 6, 2013

Global Market Comments May 6, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MAY 8 LAS VEGAS STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (BEN’S NEW LEG FOR THE BULL MARKET), (SPY), (IWM), (AAPL), (GLD), (SLV), (CU), (TLT), (YCS), (FXY) (PLEASE USE MY FREE DATA BASE SEARCH) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM) Apple Inc. (AAPL) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) iShares Silver Trust (SLV) First … [Read more...]

May 8 Las Vegas Strategy Luncheon

las-vegas-welcome-sign

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Las Vegas, Nevada on Wednesday, May 8, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. I … [Read more...]

Ben’s New Leg for the Bull Market

Crystal Ball

I just returned from my round of monthly wine club pick-ups in California’s lush and fertile Napa Valley. I invested a half hour soaking up the breathtaking views at the hilltop Silverado winery. Duckhorn offered a lavish lunch event, which I ducked out on. The Wagner family is prospering as always, recently opening a tasting room for their spectacular Caymus private label. The … [Read more...]

Please Use My Free Data Base Search

Woman hitting head

The original purpose of this letter was to build a database of ideas to draw on in the management of my hedge fund. When a certain trade comes into play, I merely type in the symbol, name, currency, or commodity into the search box, and the entire fundamental argument in favor of that position pops up with a link chain to older stories. You can do the same. Just type … [Read more...]

May 3, 2013

Global Market Comments May 3, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (SO I LIED), (TURKEY IS ON THE MENU), (TUR), (TKC) (THE NEW CALIFORNIA GOLD RUSH), (GLD) iShares MSCI Turkey Invest Mkt Index (TUR) Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri AS (TKC) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) … [Read more...]

So I Lied

2013 Trades

I sit here with my fingertips battered, bruised, and bleeding. My lower back aches, and my shoulders are as tight as a drum. After promising to take it easy for a while because the risk/reward in the market so badly sucks, I knocked out six Trade Alerts in one day. That is on top of conducting a one-hour strategy webinar and writing a 1,600 word daily newsletter. So I … [Read more...]

The New California Gold Rush

Panning for Gold

On my way back from Lake Tahoe last weekend I saw that every bend of the American river was dotted with hopeful miners, looking to make a windfall fortune. Weekend hobbyists were there panning away from the banks, while the hardcore pros stood in hip waders balancing portable pumps on truck inner tubes, pouring sand into sluice boxes. Welcome to the new California gold … [Read more...]

Turkey is on the Menu

Istanbul

I am building lists of emerging market ETF’s to snap up during any summer sell off, and Turkey popped up on the menu. The country is only one of two Islamic countries that I consider investment grade, (Indonesia is the other one). The 82 million people of Turkey rank 15th in the world population, and 16th with a GDP of $960 billion GDP. Some 25% of the population is under the … [Read more...]

May 2, 2013

Global Market Comments May 2, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (SELLING GOLD AGAIN), (GLD), (IS USA, INC. A “SELL”), (COLUMBIA IS POPPING UP ON MY RADAR), (GXG), (EEM) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) Global X FTSE Colombia 20 ETF (GXG) iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM) … [Read more...]

Selling Gold Again

Gold Nuggets

The real shocker today in the Fed’s announcement is that it may increase monetary easing from here. As if we haven’t had enough already, with the US and Japan throwing in a combined $170 billion a month worth of monetary stimulus! More easing means that the America’s central bank thinks the global economy is even weaker than you and I realize. Yikes! Man the lifeboats, pass … [Read more...]

Is USA Inc. a “SELL?

Gold Bars

What would happen if I recommended a stock that had no profits, was cash flow negative, and had a net worth of negative $44 trillion? Chances are, you would cancel your subscription, demand a refund, de-friend me from you Facebook account, and delete my email address from your address book. Yet that is precisely what my former colleague at Morgan Stanley did, technology guru … [Read more...]

Columbia is Popping Up on My Radar

Juan Valdez

My current scenario for global equities has them selling off over the summer, then a rebounding led by emerging markets starting sometime in the fall. In that case, you want to start building short lists of high growth countries to pile into, once the turn comes. I would be including Columbia on any such list. It enjoys that sweet spot of being an oil exporting emerging … [Read more...]

May 1, 2013

Global Market Comments May 1, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MAY 1 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (OLD TECH’S BIG COMEBACK), (AAPL), (MSFT), (INTC), (HPQ), (XLK), (AMAT), (GET READY FOR YOUR NEXT BIG TAX HIT) Apple Inc. (AAPL) Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) Intel Corporation (INTC) Hewlett-Packard Company (HPQ) Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK) Applied Materials, Inc. … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss the May 1 Global Strategy Webinar

Robin Williams

My next global strategy webinar will be held on Wednesday, May 1 at 12:00 noon EST. This one will be open to the public, so login in early to get a space. I’ll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, precious metal, and real estate. The goal is to find the cheapest assets in the world to buy, the most expensive to sell short, and the … [Read more...]

Old Tech’s Big Comeback

Dracula

Apple blew away the bears today with the issuance of $17 billion in bonds, the largest such corporate debt issue in history. Spread over two, five, ten, and 30 years, the deal was oversubscribed by more than 3:1, with $40 billion in demand left unfilled. Foreign investors took down a major part of the deal, which explains Deutsche Bank’s senior role in the syndicate. The … [Read more...]

Get Ready for Your Next Big Tax Hit

IRS Emblem plus

No matter what anyone promises you today, this week, or this year, your taxes are going up. I don’t care if you are still licking your wounds from the January 1 payroll tax rise, or the federal tax hike for millionaires, which in my case took my rate up from 35% to 39.6%. At least the capital gains tax is still a steal at 20%. At $1.3 trillion, the budget deficit is so … [Read more...]

April 30, 2013

Global Market Comments April 30, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (TRADE ALERT SERVICE POSTS TWO YEAR 90% PROFIT), (MAY 8 LAS VEGAS STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (IT’S OFFICIAL: THERE’S NOTHING TO DO),  (SPY), (TLT), (JNK), (DINNER WITH ELIOT SPITZER) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond (TLT) SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond (JNK) … [Read more...]

Trade Alert Service Posts Two Year 90% Profit

SPX 4-29-13

The Trade Alert Service of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader has posted a 90.6% profit since the inception of the service 30 months ago. That compares to a modest 21% return for the Dow average during the same period. This raises the average annualized return for the service to 36.2%, elevating it to the absolute apex of hedge fund ranks. My bet that the stock markets would continue … [Read more...]

May 8 Las Vegas Strategy Luncheon

las-vegas-welcome-sign

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Las Vegas, Nevada on Wednesday, May 8, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. I … [Read more...]

It’s Official: There’s Nothing To Do

Plane-Crashed

You may have noticed that I am a man who is never short of words. I also rarely am for wont of things to do. This is one of those times. Every morning, I drag myself out of bed early, throw cold water on my face, and drag my sorry ass to my computers, where I compile lists of the positives and negatives facing the markets. Here is this morning’s list: Negatives *Almost … [Read more...]

Dinner with Eliot Spitzer

Eliot Spitzer

I couldn’t for the life of me figure out why New York’s former governor and federal prosecutor, Eliot Spitzer, wanted to invite me to dinner. He wasn’t flogging a book or promoting a movie, and he certainly wasn’t running for office again. But I went anyway, thinking perhaps the notorious “Client No. 9” might let me peek at his famous black book. Eliot, who showed up wearing … [Read more...]

May 8 Las Vegas Strategy Luncheon

las-vegas-welcome-sign

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Las Vegas, Nevada on Wednesday, May 8, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. I … [Read more...]

The Hard Numbers Behind Selling in May

Beach Sun Bathers

If I had a nickel for every time that I heard the term “Sell in May and go away” this year, I could retire. Oops, I already am retired! In any case, I thought that I would dig out the hard numbers and see how true this old trading adage is. It turns out that it is far more powerful than I imagined. According to the data in the Stock Trader’s Almanac, $10,000 invested at the … [Read more...]

Only Buy Companies You Hate

Anger-Computer

Dilbert cartoonist Scott Adams argues that you should invest in companies you hate, because only the most unprincipled and rapacious firms make the greatest profits. Moral bankruptcy is a great leading indicator of success, and the best ones can get you to balance your wallet on the end of your nose and bark like a seal, as you buy products that you utterly despise. … [Read more...]

April 26, 2013

Global Market Comments April 26, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (WHY I’M COVERING MY BOND SHORTS), (TLT), (TBT) (STEVE JOBS’ LAST LAUGH), (AAPL), (GRAPES OF WRATH REDUX) iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond (TLT) ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) Apple Inc. (AAPL) … [Read more...]

Why I’m Covering My Bond Shorts

Wave - Silkscreen

I am going to bail on my (TBT) position at close to cost. For me, it is amazing that we got a 350-point rally in the Dow and ten-year Treasury bond yields only manage to eke out a gain from 1.68% to 1.72%. I scoured the bond trading pits in Chicago yesterday, and the answer came back the same everywhere. Overwhelming Japanese buying is pushing up the prices of not just … [Read more...]

Steve Jobs’ Last Laugh

Steve Jobs

Nothing beats instant gratification. Bragging rights are nice too. On Monday, when I strapped on this trade, angry readers emailed me to tell me that I was truly out of my mind. Apple was an ex-growth company, had lost its ability to innovate, shed its “cool” factor, and had fallen behind Samsung with its large screen smart phone. The shares were clearly in a free fall to … [Read more...]

Grapes of Wrath Redux

Farmers Market

It’s another sign of the times when the weekend fruit picker population is doubled by people hard hit by the economy, looking to save money on food costs. After driving through miles of undulating brown hills studded with oak trees, passing mile upon mile of horse ranches, rusted out cars, and abandoned mobile homes, you come to Brentwood, the fruit capital of Northern … [Read more...]

April 25, 2013

Global Market Comments April 25, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MAY 8 LAS VEGAS STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (SELL IN MAY HAS ALREADY STARTED), (SPY), (IWM), (TLT), (TBT), (GLD), (SLV), (USO), (UNG), (CHINA’S VIEW OF CHINA), (FXI), (EEM) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM) iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond (TLT) ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury … [Read more...]

May 8 Las Vegas Strategy Luncheon

las-vegas-welcome-sign

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Las Vegas, Nevada on Wednesday, May 8, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. I … [Read more...]

“Sell in May” Has Started

Sherlock Holmes

You don’t have to wait until May for the next correction in the stock market, which is only four trading days away. Take a look at the charts below prepared by my good friends, Arthur Hill and John Murphy at Stockcharts.com, and you’ll see it has already started. In fact, it might be almost over. Only 42% of stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange are now above their … [Read more...]

China’s View of China

China - Parade

I ran into Minxin Pei, a scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace who imparted to me some iconoclastic, out of consensus views on China’s position in the world today. He thinks that power is not shifting from West to East; Asia is just lifting itself off the mat, with per capita GDP at $5,800, compared to $48,000 in the US. We are simply moving from a … [Read more...]

April 24, 2013

Global Market Comments April 24, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JULY 2 NEW YORK STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (THINGS ARE HEATING UP IN MEXICO), (EWW), (UMX), (BSMX), (EEM), (BUDGET CUTS HOT THE WILD ANIMAL MARKET) iShares MSCI Mexico Capped Invstbl Mkt (EWW) ProShares Ultra MSCI Mexico Cppd IMI (UMX) Grupo Financiero Santander S.A.B. de C.V. (BSMX) iShares MSCI Emerging … [Read more...]

July 2 New York Strategy Luncheon

Empire State Building

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Seminar, which I will be conducting in New York, NY on Tuesday, July 2, 2013. An excellent three-course lunch will be provided. A PowerPoint presentation will be followed by an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, … [Read more...]

Things Are Heating Up in Mexico

Mexican

I have fond memories traveling around northern Mexico during the 1950’s. My grandfather used to drive us across the border into Baja in his pickup truck, the back loaded with camping equipment, water, fishing poles, rifles, and shotguns. There was no border control. To eat, we only had to wait for the tide to go out on the Sea of Cortez, uncovering a banquet of fresh … [Read more...]

Budget Cuts Hit the Wild Animal Market

Tiger

In case you missed it, the second hand animal market has crashed. Forced to slash budgets by cash starved municipalities, the nation’s public zoos have been paring back their collections of living exhibits. The Washington Zoo is trying to offload a 7,000 pound hippopotamus; while the San Francisco Zoo is short some tigers after one ate a visitor and had to be shot. The … [Read more...]

April 23, 2013

Global Market Comments April 23, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MAY 8 LAS VEGAS STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (PROBING FOR A BOTTOM IN GOLD), (GLD), (IS THIS THE FINAL BOTTOM FOR APPLE?), (AAPL), (GOOG), (JCP) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) Apple Inc. (AAPL) Google Inc. (GOOG) J. C. Penney Company, Inc. (JCP) … [Read more...]

May 8 Las Vegas Strategy Luncheon

las-vegas-welcome-sign

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Las Vegas, Nevada on Wednesday, May 8, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. I … [Read more...]

Probing for a Bottom in Gold

Gold Nuggets

Thanks to last week’s Armageddon type crash in gold prices, implied volatilities on options in the SPDR Gold Trust Shares (GLD) have rocketed to five-year highs. This is in sharp contrast to equity index option implieds, which are just a few percent above six year lows. Therefore, the deep in the money option strategy in the (GLD) is now vastly superior to alternatives found in … [Read more...]

Is This the Final Bottom for Apple?

Apple-Bite

Apple has been one of the great conundrums of the investment industry this year, the stock falling through the floor of any standard valuation model. With the shares at $395 the stock is discounting a 12% drop in earnings per year for the next several years. Either something terrible is about to happen at Steve Jobs’ creation, or it is the “BUY” of the century. I believe it is … [Read more...]

May 8 Las Vegas Strategy Luncheon

las-vegas-welcome-sign

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Las Vegas, Nevada on Wednesday, May 8, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. I … [Read more...]

The Tax Rate Fallacy

irs

When anyone starts lecturing you that the US has the highest tax rate in the industrialized world, just turn around, walk away, and pretend you never heard of them. This person is either ignorant about this country's taxation system, or is deliberately trying to deceive you. According to a report released by the Internal Revenue Service, America's tax collection agency, the … [Read more...]

An Afternoon With Boone Pickens

2321

Reformed oil man, repenting sinner, and borne again environmentalist T. Boone Pickens says that “When we turn the US green, it will have the best economy ever.” I met the spry, homespun billionaire at San Francisco’s Mark Hopkins on a leg of his self-financed national campaign to get America to kick its dangerous dependence on foreign oil imports. For the past 30 years, the … [Read more...]

April 19, 2013

Global Market Comments April 19, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MAY 8 LAS VEGAS STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (AMERICA’S NATIVE INDIAN ECONOMY), (BUSINESS IS BOOMING AT ROUGH TIMES), (GLD), (SLV), (CCJ), (NLR) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) iShares Silver Trust (SLV) Cameco Corporation (CCJ) Market Vectors Uranium+Nuclear Enrgy ETF (NLR) … [Read more...]

May 8 Las Vegas Strategy Luncheon

las-vegas-welcome-sign

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Las Vegas, Nevada on Wednesday, May 8, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. I … [Read more...]

America’s Native Indian Economy

indian

When I was remodeling my 160-year-old London house, the chimney was in desperate need of attention. After the bricklayer crawled up the fireplace, he found a yellowed and somewhat singed envelope addressed to Santa Claus. Thinking it was placed there by my kids, he handed it over to me. In it was a letter dated Christmas, 1910 asking for a Red Indian suit. Europeans have … [Read more...]

Business is Booming at Ruff Times

end

Following Howard Ruff for the last 35 years has always been eye opening, if not entertaining. The irascible Mormon is the publisher of Ruff Times, one of the oldest investment letters in the business, and one of the original worshipers of hard assets. Ruff says that any investment denominated in dollars is a mistake, which is in a long term down trend, along with all paper … [Read more...]

April 18, 2013

Global Market Comments April 18, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (APRIL 19 CHICAGO STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (NOTICE TO MILITARY SUBSCRIBERS), (CHINA’S COMING DEMOGRAPHIC NIGHTMARE), (THE TECHNOLOGY NIGHTMARE COMING TO YOUR CITY) … [Read more...]

April 19 Chicago Strategy Luncheon

Chicago

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Chicago on Friday, April 19. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And … [Read more...]

Notice to Military Subscribers

Soldier

To the dozens of subscribers in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the surrounding ships at sea, thank you for your service! I think it is very wise to use your free time to read my letter and learn about financial markets in preparation for an entry into the financial services when you muster out. Nobody is going to call you a baby killer and shun you, as they did when I returned from … [Read more...]

China’s Coming Demographic Nightmare

Chinese Boy

Thanks to China's “one child only” policy adopted 30 years ago, and a cultural preference for children who grow up to become family safety nets, there are now 32 million more boys under the age of 20 than girls. Large scale interference with the natural male:female ratio has been tracked with some fascination by demographers for years, and is constantly generating unintended … [Read more...]

The Technology Nightmare Coming to Your City

Cars-parked

I tell people at my strategy luncheons that living in the San Francisco Bay area is like living in the future. There is an explosion of high tech innovation going on here, and we locals often find ourselves the guinea pigs for the latest hot products. However, sometimes the future is not such a great place to be. I learned this the other day when I received a parking ticket … [Read more...]

America’s Demographic Time Bomb

Children

You can never underestimate the importance of demographics in shaping long term investment trends, so I thought I’d pass on these two highly instructive maps. The first shows a map of the world drawn in terms of the population of children, while the second illustrates the globe in terms of its 100 year olds. Notice that China and India dominate the children’s map. Kids turn … [Read more...]

April 16, 2013

Global Market Comments April 16, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MAY 8 LAS VEGAS STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (BIDDING FOR THE STARS), (DOW AVERAGE), (SPY), (AN EVENING WITH TRAVEL GURU ARTHUR FROMMER), (HAPPY BIRTHDAY IRS!) SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) … [Read more...]

May 8 Las Vegas Strategy Luncheon

las-vegas-welcome-sign

Come join me for the lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader's Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Las Vegas, Nevada on Wednesday, May 8, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real … [Read more...]

Bidding for the Stars

Shreve & Co.

A few years ago, I went to a charity fundraiser at San Francisco’s priciest jewelry store, Shreve & Co. The well-heeled masters of the universe bid for dates with the local high society beauties, dripping in diamonds and Channel No. 5. Well fueled with champagne, I jumped into a spirited bidding war over one of the Bay Area’s premier hotties, whom shall remain nameless. … [Read more...]

An Evening with Travel Guru Arthur Frommer

Europe on $5 a Day, cover

Travel guru, Arthur Frommer, says that now is the best time to travel in 20 years, thanks to a combination of a strong dollar and desperate price-cutting forced by the recession. Three years after oil hit an historic peak at $148/barrel, when $500 fuel surcharges abounded, and the demise of the travel industry was widely predicted, costs in some countries, like Mexico and … [Read more...]

Happy Birthday IRS!

Tax Form

Some taxpayers have been sending birthday cards in with their tax returns this year. That’s because the International Revenue Service, the collector of America’s tax revenues, is 100 years old this week. Although the wealthy have been paying income taxes since the 1861-65 Civil War, they did not apply to the rest of us until the passage of the 16th Amendment. The original … [Read more...]

April 15, 2013

Global Market Comments April 15, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (GOLD: NEXT STOP $1,250!), (GLD), (GDX), (SLV), (PPLT), (PALL), (USO), (CU), (FXY), (APRIL 17 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (APRIL 19 CHICAGO STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (SIGN UP NOW FOR TEXT MESSAGING OF TRADE ALERTS) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) iShares Silver Trust (SLV) ETFS … [Read more...]

Gold: Next Stop $1,250!

Market Down

Sometimes, the best trades are the ones you don’t do. I actually wrote up a Trade Alert to buy gold on Thursday, figuring that it would bounce the first time it hit my downside target of $1,500. But then I scanned the entire hard asset landscape, and saw that everything was selling off huge; silver (SLV), platinum (PPLT), palladium (PALL), oil (USO), copper (CU), and iron ore. … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss the April 17 Global Strategy Webinar

Robin Williams

My next global strategy webinar will be held on Wednesday, April 17 at 12:00 noon EDT. This one will be open to the public, so login in early to get a space. I’ll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, precious metal, and real estate. The goal is to find the cheapest assets in the world to buy, the most expensive to sell short, and the … [Read more...]

April 19 Chicago Strategy Luncheon

Chicago

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Chicago on Friday, April 19. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And … [Read more...]

Sign Up Now for Text Messaging of Trade Alerts

Testimonial

Paid subscribers are now able to receive instantaneous text messages of my proprietary Trade Alerts. This eliminates frustrating delays caused by traffic surges on the Internet itself and by your local server. To activate your free service, please log in to your account at www.madhedgefundtrader.com, look under your name on the right, and click on the blue hyperlink that … [Read more...]

April 12, 2013

Global Market Comments April 12, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (NOT YOUR FATHER’S RAILROADS), (UNP), (CSX), (NSC), (CP), (THE WORST TRADE OF ALL TIME), (GLD) Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) CSX Corp. (CSX) Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) Canadian Pacific Railway Limited (CP) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) … [Read more...]

Not Your Father’s Railroads

Train-Cargo

When I rode Amtrak’s California Zephyr service from Chicago to San Francisco last year, we passed countless trains heading west hauling hoppers full of coal for shipment to China. This year I took the same trip. The coal trains were gone. Instead I saw 100 car long tanker trains transporting crude oil from North Dakota south to the Gulf Coast. I thought, “There’s got to be a … [Read more...]

The Worst Trade of All Time

Steve Martin

One of the great asset management blunders of all time has to be the European Community’s decision to sell its gold reserves in the wake of the launch of the Euro in 1998. The decision led to the fairly rapid sale of 3,800 tons of the yellow metal at an average price of $280/ounce, reaping about $56 billion, according to the Financial Times. Today with gold at $1,559/ounce, … [Read more...]

April 11, 2013

Global Market Comments April 11, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (APRIL 12 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (JAPANESE CASH TSUNAMI HITS US), (SPY), (DXJ), (BAC), (AAPL), (TBT), (TLT), (GLD), (SLV) (TURKEY IS ON THE MENU), (TUR), (TKC) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity (DXJ) Bank of America Corporation (BAC) Apple Inc. (AAPL) ProShares UltraShort … [Read more...]

April 12 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon

San Francisco

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in San Francisco on Friday, April 12, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And … [Read more...]

Japanese Cash Tsunami Hits US

Punch Bowl

When Japanese central bank governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, announced the most aggressive monetary stimulus program in history last week, he no doubt expected Tokyo share prices to head for the moon. In that, he has succeeded admirably, the yen hedged Japanese equity ETF (DXJ) soaring by 13.4% in the five trading days since he lobbed his bombshell. What the bespectacled bureaucrat … [Read more...]

Turkey is on the Menu

Istanbul

I am building lists of emerging market ETF’s to snap up during any summer sell off, and Turkey popped up on the menu. The country is only one of two Islamic countries that I consider investment grade, (Indonesia is the other one). The 82 million people of Turkey rank 15th in the world population, and 16th with a GDP of $960 billion GDP. Some 25% of the population is under the … [Read more...]

May 8 Las Vegas Strategy Luncheon

las-vegas-welcome-sign

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Las Vegas, Nevada on Wednesday, May 8, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. I … [Read more...]

An Evening With “Government Motors”

GM-CEO-Dan-Akerson-1

Long-term readers of this letter are well aware of my antipathy towards General Motors (GM). For decades, the company turned a blind ear to customer complaints about shoddy, uncompetitive products, arcane management practices, entitled dealers, and a totally inward looking view of the world that was rapidly globalizing. It was like watching a close friend kill himself through … [Read more...]

April 9, 2013

Global Market Comments April 9, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (APRIL 19 CHICAGO STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (TRADER ALERT SERVICE POSTS BIGGEST ONE DAY GAIN), (FXY), (YCS), (BAC), (AAPL), (SPY), (TBT), (WHAT ABOUT ASSET ALLOCATION?), (AMERICA’S RAPIDLY CHANGING MIX) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS) Bank of America Corporation … [Read more...]

April 19 Chicago Strategy Luncheon

Chicago

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Chicago on Friday, April 19. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And … [Read more...]

Trade Alert Service Posts Biggest One Day Gain

fat+lady+sings

Just a quick note to tell you that yesterday, the Trade Alert Service of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader posted its biggest one-day gain ever. From the Friday to the Monday close my trade-mentoring program picked up some 447 basis points. The three day pickup for the service is an eye popping 12.23%. That takes readers’ year to date profit to a mind blowing 39.52%. David Tepper, eat … [Read more...]

What About Asset Allocation?

Regis Philbin

Asset allocation is the one question that I get every day, which I absolutely cannot answer. The reason is simple: no two investors are alike. The answer varies whether you are young or old, have $1,000 in the bank or $1 billion, are a sophisticated investor or an average Joe, in the top or the bottom tax bracket, and so on. This is something you should ask your financial … [Read more...]

America’s Rapidly Changing Mix

Kids

Since I am in the long-term forecasting business, it was with some fascination that I caught the Associated Press report that minority children born last year exceeded Caucasian children for the first time. Whites lost their majority in San Francisco many years ago, and will do so in California as a whole in the near future. The report said that the US will have a ‘minority’ … [Read more...]

April 8, 2013

Global Market Comments April 8, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (APRIL 12 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (TRADE ALERT SERVICE CAPTURES 35% GAIN IN 2013), (SPX), (VIX), (IWM), (BAC), (UAL), (FXE), (YCS), (GLD), (USO), (FCX), (TLT) (SLV), (AIG), (FXB), (CU) (DECODING THE GREEBACK), (THE FUSION IN YOUR FUTURE) S&P 500 Large Cap Index (SPX) VOLATILITYS&P500 … [Read more...]

April 12 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon

San Francisco

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in San Francisco on Friday, April 12, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And … [Read more...]

Trade Alert Service Captures 35% Profit on BOJ Move

John thomas

The stunning and unprecedented move by the Bank of Japan last week boosted the Trade Alert Service of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader to a new all time high. It was an incredible week, with me punching out 14 Trade Alerts to readers, burning up the fiber optic cable of the global broadband network. And I did all of this, sitting in front of the fire at my Lake Tahoe beachfront … [Read more...]

Decoding the Greenback

US Dollar

If you want to impress your friends with your vast knowledge of financial matters, then here are the Latin translations of the script on the backside of a US dollar bill. “ANNUIT COEPTIS” means “God has favored our undertaking.” “NOVUS ORDO SECLORUM” translates into “A new order has begun.” The Roman numerals at the base of the pyramid are “1776.” The better known “E … [Read more...]

The Fusion in Your Future

Planetarium

Expect to hear a lot about ignition in the next year. No, I don’t mean the rebuilt ignition for the beat up ’68 Cadillac El Dorado up on blocks in your front yard. I’m referring to the inauguration of the National Ignition Facility next door to me at Lawrence Livermore National Labs in Livermore, California. Mention California to most people, and images of love beads, tie … [Read more...]

April 5, 2013

Global Market Comments April 5, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (NEW BOJ GOVERNOR CRUSHES THE YEN), (FXY), (YCS), (DXJ), (SIGN UP NOW FOR TEXT MESSAGING OF TRADE ALERTS), (THERE ARE NO GURUS), (WATCH OUT FOR THE MILLENNIAL VOTER) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS) WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity (DXJ) … [Read more...]

New BOJ Governor Crushes the Yen

BOJ Govenor

Wow! What a day! In perhaps the most dramatic policy move by any central bank, anywhere in history, the Bank of Japan pulled out all the stops to stimulate its moribund, demographically challenged economy. Japan is now lapping its competitors in Europe and the US in the international race to the bottom. The markets certainly got the memo. Japan’s beleaguered currency … [Read more...]

Sign Up Now for Text Messaging of Trade Alerts

Testimonial

Paid subscribers are now able to receive instantaneous text messages of my proprietary Trade Alerts. This eliminates frustrating delays caused by traffic surges on the Internet itself, and by your local server. To activate your free service, please log in to your account at www.madhedgefundtrader.com, look under your name on the right, and click on the blue hyperlink that … [Read more...]

Watch Out for the Millennial Voter

College Kids

I have been banging the table for years now about the importance of demographic trends for the economy, the financial markets, and the housing market. Well, politics is no different. According to recent surveys, Millennials, who are now aged 21-32 (I have three of them) are suspicious of government, have a strong anti-business bias, are opposed to new regulation, are highly … [Read more...]

April 4, 2013

Global Market Comments April 4, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JULY 8 LONDON STRATEGY LUNCHEON) (ANOTHER DINNER WITH ROBERT REICH), (TESTIMONIAL), (CONNECTING UP AMERICA) … [Read more...]

July 8 London Strategy Luncheon

Big_Ben_8583a

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in London on Monday, July 8, 2012. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep … [Read more...]

Another Dinner With Robert Reich

Robert Reich

I never tire of listening to economics guru, Robert Reich, speak about the economy. He was former Labor Secretary under Bill Clinton, and ran against Mitt Romney for governor of Massachusetts (he lost). He has published 13 books. Oh, and he dated our recent Secretary of State, Hillary Rodham, when they were in law school together at Yale. I got to know Bob well when I took … [Read more...]

Connecting Up America

Solar Panels

Until now, the country’s power grid has been divided into three unconnected, noncompetitive kingdoms (in the spirit of Game of Thrones), making transnational transmission impossible, leading to huge regional mispricing. While California and New York suffered from periodic brown outs and sky high prices, electricity was given away virtually for free in Texas. A group of power … [Read more...]

April 3, 2013

Global Market Comments April 3, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (APRIL 19 CHICAGO STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (PULLING THE RIPCORD ON UNITED), (UAL), (EASTER AT INCLINE VILLAGE) United Continental Holdings, Inc. (UAL) … [Read more...]

April 19 Chicago Strategy Luncheon

Chicago

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Chicago on Friday, April 19. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And … [Read more...]

Pulling the Ripcord on United

3.21.2013 B

Delta announces that revenues grew by only 2% in the last quarter, so of course, they trash United Continental Group (UAL), taking it down 11% from the recent high.  As a former pilot myself, I always allow an extra safety margin separating me from a catastrophic event. This time it came in handy, my deep out-of-the-money call spread limiting my losses to a handful of basis … [Read more...]

Easter at Incline Village

Incline Village-Tahoe

It has definitely been a tough year for ski bums, massage therapists, and black jack dealers at Incline Village, Nevada. After getting a prodigious eight feet of snow over one weekend at Christmas, there has been nary a flake since then. Hats off to the Diamond Peak ski resort for trucking down enough snow from the higher elevations to keep the bunny slope running. However, … [Read more...]

April 2, 2013

Global Market Comments April 2, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (APRIL 12 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (THE US DOMINANCE IN HIGHER EDUCATION), (AN EVENING WITH JAMES BAKER III), (THE CORN CRASH CONTINUES), (CORN), (WEAT), (SOYB), (DBA) Teucrium Corn (CORN) Teucrium Wheat (WEAT) Teucrium Soybean (SOYB) PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA) … [Read more...]

April 12 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon

San Francisco

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in San Francisco on Friday, April 12, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And … [Read more...]