The One Safe Place in Real Estate

I feel obliged to reveal one corner of this beleaguered market that might actually make sense. By 2050 the population of California will soar from 37 million to 50 million, and that of the US from 300 million to 400 million, according to data released by the US Census Bureau and the CIA fact Book (check out the population pyramid below). That means enormous demand for the … [Read more...]

June 5, 2013

Global Market Comments June 5, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JULY 2 NEW YORK STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (WELCOME TO THE SACK OF ROME), (TLT), (TBT), (LQD), (MUB), (VNQ), (KMP), (BREAKFAST WITH FED GOVERNOR BOB McTEER) iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond (TLT) ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) iShares iBoxx $ Invest Grade Corp Bond (LQD) iShares S&P National … [Read more...]

July 2 New York Strategy Luncheon

empire

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Seminar, which I will be conducting in New York, NY on Tuesday, July 2, 2013. An excellent three-course lunch will be provided. A PowerPoint presentation will be followed by an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, … [Read more...]

Welcome to the Sack of Rome

Statue

Let’s face it, the carnage in the bond markets in May outdid the sack of Rome. Not only did the Treasury bonds (TLT) get hit. The entire high yield space was slaughtered, including corporates (LQD), junk bonds (JNK), REITS (VNQ), master limited partnerships (KMP), municipal bonds (MUB), and high dividend equities. Anything that looked and smelled like a bond got … [Read more...]

June 4, 2013

Global Market Comments June 4, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (AUGUST 9 ZERMATT STRATEGY SEMINAR), (BREAKFAST WITH PIMCO’S MOHAMED EL-ERIAN), (TAKE A RIDE IN THE NEW SHORT JUNK ETF), (JNK), (SJB), (CORN), (TBT) SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond (JNK) ProShares Short High Yield (SJB) Teucrium Corn (CORN) ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) … [Read more...]

August 9 Zermatt Global Strategy Seminar

matterhorn-Copy2-1

Come join me for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Seminar, which I will be conducting high in the Alps in Zermatt, Switzerland at 2:00 PM on Friday, August 9, 2012. A PowerPoint presentation will be followed by an open discussion on the crucial issues facing investors today. Coffee, tea, and schnapps will be made available, along with light snacks. You are welcome … [Read more...]

Breakfast with PIMCO’s Mohamed El-Erian

US GDP Growh Rate

On the way back from a funeral in Los Angeles last weekend, I thought I would take a walk down Nostalgia Lane and have breakfast at the historic Langham Huntington Hotel, the venue for my 1970 senior prom. I was half way through my eggs benedict in the Terrace Room when, who sits at the next table, but bond giant PIMCO’s brilliant CEO and co-CIO, Mohamed El-Erian. That’s the … [Read more...]

Take a Ride in the New Short Junk ETF

Car-Junk

When you look at the profusion of new ETF’s being launched today, you find that they almost always correspond with market tops. The higher the market, the greater the demand for the underlying, and the more leverage traders bay for it. The resulting returns for investors are disastrous. But occasionally a blind squirrel finds an acorn, if you fire buckshot long enough, you … [Read more...]

June 3, 2013

Global Market Comments June 3, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (HARRY S. DENT, JR. ON HEDGE FUND RADIO), (SPY), (IWM), (UUP), (GLD), (SLV), (USO), (XLE), (TLT) (A RELIGIOUS EXPERIENCE) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM) PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) iShares Silver Trust (SLV) United States Oil (USO) Energy … [Read more...]

Harry S. Dent, Jr. on Hedge Fund Radio

Harry S. Dent, Jr.

Your stock portfolio will get decimated by a stock market crash that could take the Dow average down 60% to 6,000 or lower. There will be no place to hide, as gold, silver, oil, real estate will see declines of similar magnitude. Given the fresh dose of uncertainty besieging the markets these days, I thought I'd touch base with my pal, co-conspiring Eagle Scout, and fellow … [Read more...]

A Religious Experience

John Thomas

A couple times a year, I feel the need to abandon civilization and contemplate the meaning of life, while accomplishing a great physical challenge. For me, this is a mandatory religious experience. That’s why I was up at Lake Tahoe last week, completing a 100 mile hike in eight days, mostly over 8,000 feet, carrying a 60 pound pack. I fast while accomplishing this, eating … [Read more...]

May 31, 2013

Global Market Comments May 31, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (UPDATED 2013 STRATEGY LUNCHEON SCHEDULE), (WHY JIM CHANOS IS WRONG ON CHINA), (FXI), (CYB) (DRINKS WITH ROBERT REICH), (BECOME MY FACEBOOK FRIEND) iShares FTSE China 25 Index Fund (FXI) WisdomTree Chinese Yuan (CYB) … [Read more...]

Updated 2013 Strategy Luncheon Schedule

Europe

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Updates, which I will be conducting throughout Europe during the summer of 2013. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies commodities, precious metals, and real estate. … [Read more...]

Why Jim Chanos is Wrong on China

China

Hedge fund titan, Jim Chanos, is well known for his extremely bearish views on China. He says that the cracks are spreading on the façade, real estate sales are falling, and that the economic engine is starting to sputter. This will be bad news for the rest of us, as China imports 50%-80% of the world’s commodities. Commodity exporting countries will be especially hard hit, … [Read more...]

Become My Facebook Friend

If you would like to get a free headline service from The Diary of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader, then please join my 1,464 friends. Every day we are posting headlines along with summaries of the stories on our Facebook page. As soon as you open your own Facebook page, you will receive our latest headlines as newsfeeds. To “friend me”, please go to my home page at … [Read more...]

May 30, 2013

Global Market Comments May 30, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JULY 8 LONDON STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (THE BOTTOM IS IN FOR THE AGS), (CORN), (WEAT), (SOYB), (DBA) (THE ONE ECONOMIC INDICATOR YOU CAN RELY ON) (AN EVENING WITH MALCOLM GLADWELL) Teucrium Corn (CORN) Teucrium Wheat (WEAT) Teucrium Soybean (SOYB) PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA) … [Read more...]

July 8 London Strategy Luncheon

Big_Ben_8583a

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in London on Monday, July 8, 2013. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep … [Read more...]

The Bottom is in for the Ags

Popcorn

Take a look at the drought monitor below, and you’ll see that it looks exactly like the one we saw a year ago. Yes, that’s the one right before we saw prices double for corn (CORN) and most other agricultural products. The global warming trade may be about to return with a vengeance. If the weather so far this year is any indication, the trading pits in Chicago could break … [Read more...]

The One Economic Indicator You Can Rely On

Girls at beach

There is no end to which I am willing to go to understand the future direction of the world economy. So when I learned that the price of Brazilian bikini waxes was going through the roof, I had to sit up and take note. Last month, the price of the popular beauty treatment soared by 16.6% to 35 Reals, about $22. This is no joke. The Brazilian government includes the removal … [Read more...]

May 29, 2013

Global Market Comments May 29, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JULY 2 NEW YORK STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (RECOLLECTIONS OF A MARINE), (THE BLACK SWAN SOLUTION TO OUR ENERGY PROBLEMS)   … [Read more...]

July 2 New York Strategy Luncheon

Empire State Building

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Seminar, which I will be conducting in New York, NY on Tuesday, July 2, 2013. An excellent three-course lunch will be provided. A PowerPoint presentation will be followed by an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, … [Read more...]

Recollections of a Marine

The Pacific by Hugh Ambrose

As the son of a Marine who served on Guadalcanal in 1942, I had an unusual childhood. The memories all came flooding back to me as the HBO program, The Pacific, which aired once again over this Memorial Day weekend. Every scene in the ten-hour series I had already heard about around campfires, at veteran’s reunions, or in officers clubs around the world. At five, I learned … [Read more...]

May 28, 2013

Global Market Comments May 28, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MAY 29 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (ANNOUNCING THE RELAUNCH OF HEDGE FUND RADIO), (SKYBRIDGE CAPITAL’S ANTHONY SCARAMUCCI ON HEDGE FUND RADIO) (SPY), (EWJ), (DXJ), (TLT), (FXY),  (YCS), (IDX), (EWM), (EWS), (GLD) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) iShares MSCI Japan Index (EWJ) WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss the May 29 Global Strategy Webinar

Robin Williams

My next global strategy webinar will be held on Wednesday, May 29 at 12:00 noon EST. This one will be open to the public, so login in early to get a space. I’ll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, precious metal, and real estate. The goal is to find the cheapest assets in the world to buy, the most expensive to sell short, and the … [Read more...]

Announcing the Relaunch of Hedge Fund Radio

I often get asked by readers to share the industry contacts that enable me to make such timely and insightful market calls. Now you have the opportunity to do so. Hedge Fund Radio is the online radio program for the true investment professional. There, you can hear me roll out my 40-year accumulation of trading contacts from across the width and breadth of the financial … [Read more...]

SkyBridge Capital’s Anthony Scaramucci on Hedge Fund Radio

Anthony Scarmucci

Markets are overbought now, especially given that the US economy is only growing at a subpar 2% annual rate. But the S&P 500 (SPY) will close higher by yearend. Despite the fact that 30-year Treasury prices (TLT) are near all time highs, there are still huge opportunities in the fixed income space. And both the Japanese yen (FXY) (YCS) and the Tokyo stock market (EWJ) (DXJ) … [Read more...]

May 24, 2013

Global Market Comments May 24, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (UPDATED 2013 STRATEGY LUNCHEON SCHEDULE), (A TRIBUTE TO A TRUE VETERAN) (UPDATE ON THE MAD DAY TRADER), (JJG), (TBT) iPath DJ-UBS Grains TR Sub-Idx ETN (JJG) ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) … [Read more...]

Updated 2013 Strategy Luncheon Schedule

Europe

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader's Global Strategy Updates, which I will be conducting throughout Europe during the summer of 2013. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. I'll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies commodities, precious metals, and real estate. … [Read more...]

Update on The Mad Day Trader

JJG 5-23-13

I am happy to report that we are making great progress with The Mad Day Trader, rapidly evolving the service to best meet the needs of the professional trader. We have already closed huge winners in soybeans (SM), the iPath Dow Jones AIG Grains Total Return Index ETF (JJG), and short Treasury bond (TBT). It is not easy for me to translate "traderese" in plain English, but … [Read more...]

May 23, 2013

Global Market Comments May 23, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JULY 8 LONDON STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (THE AMERICAN ONSHORING TREND IS ACCELERATING), (GE), (TSLA), (HEDGE FUNDS: THE NEW DUMB MONEY) General Electric Company (GE) Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) … [Read more...]

July 8 London Strategy Luncheon

Big_Ben_8583a

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in London on Monday, July 8, 2013. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep … [Read more...]

The American Onshoring Trend is Accelerating

Leonard DiCaprio

Onshoring, the return of US manufacturing from abroad, is rapidly gathering pace. It is increasingly playing a crucial part in the unfolding American industrial renaissance. It could well develop into the most important new trend on the global economic scene during the early 21st century. It is also paving the way for a return of the roaring twenties to our home shores. Of … [Read more...]

Hedge Funds: The New Dumb Money

Carrey & Daniels - Dumb & Dumber

Much of the recent buying of stocks has been generated by hedge funds panicking to cover shorts. Convinced of the imminent collapse of Europe, the impotence of governments to do anything about it, and slow economic growth at home, many managers were running a maximum short for the umpteenth time, and were forced to cover at a loss. Meet the new dumb money: hedge funds. When … [Read more...]

July 25 Portofino, Italy Strategy Luncheon

Portofino, Italy

Come join John Thomas for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting near Portofino, Italy on the Italian Riviera, on Thursday, July 25, 2013. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, … [Read more...]

Five Stocks to Buy for the Second Half

Market Pit

Take a look at the chart below for the S&P 500, and it is clear that we are at the top, of a top, of a top. How much new stock do you want to buy here? Not much. Virtually every technical trading service I follow, including my own, is now flashing distressed warning signals. Maybe we really were supposed to “Sell in May and go away.” All RSI’s are through the roof. We … [Read more...]

May 21, 2013

Global Market Comments May 21, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JULY 2 NEW YORK STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (THE END OF THE COMMODITY SUPER CYCLE) (GLD), (SLV), (CU), (BHP), (USO), (PALL), (PPLT), (CORN), (WEAT), (SOYB), (DBA), (FXA) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) iShares Silver Trust (SLV) First Trust ISE Global Copper Index (CU) BHP Billiton Limited (BHP) United States Oil … [Read more...]

July 2 New York Strategy Luncheon

Empire State Building

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Seminar, which I will be conducting in New York, NY on Tuesday, July 2, 2013. An excellent three-course lunch will be provided. A PowerPoint presentation will be followed by an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, … [Read more...]

End of the Commodity Super Cycle

Gold Coins

Traders have been watching in complete awe the rapid decent of the price of gold, which is emerging as the most despised asset class of 2013. But it is becoming increasingly apparent that the collapse of prices for the barbarous relic is part of a much larger, longer-term macro trend. It isn’t just the yellow metal that is hurting. So are the rest of the precious and semi … [Read more...]

May 20, 2013

Global Market Comments May 20, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (INTRODUCING THE MAD DAY TRADER), (A SPECIAL NOTE TO TRADE ALERT FOLLOWERS) (REVISITING THE FIRST SILVER BUBBLE), (SLV) iShares Silver Trust (SLV) … [Read more...]

Introducing the Mad Day Trader

I am pleased to announce the introduction of my first major upgrade, The Mad Day Trader. While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader will exploit money-making opportunities over a ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to … [Read more...]

A Special Note to Trade Alert Followers

Special Note

As of today, we will be sending out two types of Trader Alerts, medium term ones from the Mad Hedge Fund Trader, and short term ones from the new Mad Day Trader service. Please be careful not to confuse the two. We have done what we can to distinguish the two, using different logos, colors, fonts, and subject. However, in the heat of battle I understand that it is all too … [Read more...]

Revisiting the First Silver Bubble

Silver Dollar

With smoke still rising from the ruins of the recent silver crash, I thought I’d touch base with a wizened and grizzled old veteran who still remembers the last time a bubble popped for the white metal. That would be Mike Robertson, who runs Robertson Wealth Management, one of the largest and most successful registered investment advisors in the country. Mike is the last … [Read more...]

May 17, 2013

Global Market Comments May 17, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (HANGING OUT WITH CONGRESSMAN BARNEY FRANK), (THE MOST FUNCTIONAL WORD IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE), (AN EVENING WITH NOBEL PRIZE WINNER MICHAEL SPENCE) (EEM),(EWZ), (EWY), (EWT), (EWS), (EWH),(TF), (IDX), (EWM), (FXI), (EWJ) iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM) iShares MSCI Brazil Capped Index … [Read more...]

An Evening With Congressman Barney Frank

John Thomas and Barney Frank

One of the highlights of last week’s SkyBridge Alternatives Conference was the blowout party on Wednesday night (click here for the blow by blow description). Seeking refuge from a band that was blasting my ears out, and fleeing the nubile young bodies that kept bumping up against me and spilling my margaritas, I sought out a safe haven. There, cloistered in the quietest, … [Read more...]

The Most Functional Word in the English Language

Girl-I don't know!

Passed on by a friend with my apologies: Well, it's shit... That's right, shit! Shit may just be the most functional word in the English language. You can smoke shit, buy shit, sell shit, lose shit, find shit, forget shit, and tell others to eat shit. Some people know their shit, while others can't tell the difference between shit and Shinola. There are lucky … [Read more...]

May 16, 2013

Global Market Comments May 16, 2013 Fiat Lux SPECIAL TESLA EDITION Featured Trade: (ONE THE TESLA MELT UP), (TSLA), (F), (FIATY), (PEUGY), (SCTY), (BBRY), (HLF), (NFLX), (FSLR) Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Ford Motor Co. (F) Fiat S.p.A. (FIATY) Peugeot S.A. (PEUGY) SolarCity Corporation (SCTY) Research In Motion Limited (BBRY) Herbalife Ltd. (HLF) Netflix, Inc. … [Read more...]

On the Tesla Melt Up

JT with Tesla

This was the short squeeze that was begging to happen. Five guys owned 50% of the company, including the visionary founder, Elon Musk. Of the remaining float, 45% had been borrowed and sold short by hedge funds. All that was needed to ignite a rally was for someone to say “Boo.” That is exactly what Ben Bernanke has done with his non stop quantitative easing. A poorly … [Read more...]

May 15, 2013

Global Market Comments May 15, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JULY 19 FRANKFURT, GERMANY STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (TESTIMONIAL), (MY FAVORITE SECRET ECONOMIC INDICATOR), (RUNNING THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY TO BREAKERS) … [Read more...]

July 19 Frankfurt, Germany Strategy Luncheon

Frankfurt-8

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Frankfurt, Germany on Friday, July 19, 2013. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and … [Read more...]

Running the San Francisco Bay to Breakers

Medal-Bay to Breakers SF

I suffer earthquakes, forest fires, floods, dubious neighbors, high taxes, corrupt politicians, and a bankrupt state government to live in California. It is all worth it just to run the Bay to Breakers every year, a five mile run from the San Francisco Bay to the Pacific Ocean, which has evolved into the world’s most bizarre sporting event. The word from race organizers this … [Read more...]

My Favorite Secret Economic Indicator

U-Haul Ad

It was with an enormous sense of pride and relief that I watched the last of my kids graduate from the University of California at Berkeley. Clutching his hard fought degree in political economics in hand, Robert posed for photos among friends, with thousands of beaming parents looking on. His mother died ten years ago, and raising three kids alone, getting them through top … [Read more...]

Report on the SkyBridge Alternatives Conference

SALT Badge

I am writing to you from the poolside cabana number B-2 at the Bellagio Hotel in Las Vegas. It is an unseasonably cool 70 degrees in the shade and the air is bone- dry, so I’m on my third banana daiquiri for the day. The days when I risked getting my hands broken with a hammer for card counting at blackjack have long since passed, so I am able to relax. That’s how I had to work … [Read more...]

Report From Las Vegas

Slot Machines

As with all of my visits to Sin City, I made a beeline to my inside guy — a blackjack dealer at Caesar’s Palace. It’s been a slow summer and an even slower fall. With global warming delivering the hottest summer in history, the last place tourists wanted to visit was the desert. Midwesterners have been particularly hard hit, as the heat has caused crop failures on a Biblical … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss the May 15 Global Strategy Webinar

Robin Williams

My next global strategy webinar will be held on Wednesday, May 15 at 12:00 noon EDT. This one will be open to the public, so login in early to get a space. I’ll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, precious metal, and real estate. The goal is to find the cheapest assets in the world to buy, the most expensive to sell short, and the … [Read more...]

Japan is Just Getting Started

Japanese Girl

Constantly chained to my MacBook Pro at home writing this letter, it is not often that I am in the room when a major market-moving event occurs. That is what happened at the SkyBridge Alternatives Asset Conference (SALT) in Las Vegas on Thursday (click here for the link at http://www.saltconference.com/). I was listening to one of the legendary titans of the hedge fund … [Read more...]

May 10, 2013

Global Market Comments May 10, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE REAL ESTATE MARKET IN 2030) (BREAKFAST WITH FED GOVERNOR BOB MCTEER), (TAKE A RIDE IN THE NEW SHORT JUNK ETF), (SJB), (JNK), (CORN) ProShares Short High Yield (SJB) SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond (JNK) Teucrium Corn (CORN) … [Read more...]

The Real Estate Market in 2030

House on fire

Long time readers of this letter know too well that I have been hugely negative on the sector since late 2005, when I unloaded all of my holdings (click here for ‘The Hard Truth About Residential Real Estate’).  However, I believe that ‘forever’ may be on the extreme side. Personally, I believe there will be great opportunities in real estate starting in 2030. Let’s back up … [Read more...]

Breakfast With Fed Governor Bob McTeer

McTeerRobert[1]

No one can explain the most complex economic and monetary issues in a simpler, more homespun fashion than former governor of the Federal Reserve, Bob McTeer. He is known for carrying around two yardsticks, one slightly longer than the other, to demonstrate to your average guy the monthly changes in employment. Bob argues that the Fed is getting a bad rap today. Ben … [Read more...]

Take a Ride in the New Short Junk ETF

Car-Junk

When you look at the profusion of new ETF’s being launched today, you find that they almost always correspond with market tops. The higher the market, the greater the demand for the underlying, and the more leverage traders bay for it. The resulting returns for investors are disastrous. But occasionally a blind squirrel finds an acorn, and if you fire buckshot long enough, … [Read more...]

May 9, 2013

Global Market Comments May 9, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE RECEPTION THAT THE STARS FELL UPON), (NLR), (CCJ), (CORN), (WEAT), (SOYB), (DBA), (EUROPEAN STYLE HOMELAND SECURITY) Market Vectors Uranium+Nuclear Enrgy ETF (NLR) Cameco Corporation (CCJ) Teucrium Corn (CORN) Teucrium Wheat (WEAT) Teucrium Soybean (SOYB) PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA) … [Read more...]

The Reception That the Stars Fell Upon

Atomic Explosion

My friend was having a hard time finding someone to attend a reception who was knowledgeable about financial markets, White House intrigue, international politics, and nuclear weapons. I asked who was coming. She said Reagan’s Treasury Secretary, George Shultz, Clinton’s Defense Secretary, William Perry, and Senate Armed Services Chairman, Sam Nunn. I said I’d be there … [Read more...]

European Style Homeland Security

CleeseJohn2

The English are feeling the pinch in relation to recent events in Libya, and have therefore raised their security level from "Miffed" to "Peeved." Soon, though, security levels may be raised yet again to "Irritated" or even "A Bit Cross." The English have not been "A Bit Cross" since the blitz in 1940, when tea supplies nearly ran out. Terrorists have been re-categorized from … [Read more...]

July 16 Berlin Strategy Luncheon

Berlin-Brandenburg Gate

Come join John Thomas for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Berlin, Germany, at 12:00 noon on Tuesday, July 16, 2013. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, … [Read more...]

Why Ben Bernanke Hates Me

220px-Ben_Bernanke_official_portrait

I don’t just think he hates me. He truly despises me. In fact, he does everything he can to put me out of business. Take last Wednesday, for example, when the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee gave me and my views a complete thrashing. Additional quantitative easing was the last thing in the world I was expecting because it was not justified by the current fundamentals. … [Read more...]

May 7, 2013

Global Market Comments May 7, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (I’M OFF TO THE SALT CONFERENCE), (JULY 12 AMSTERDAM STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (BE CAREFUL! YOUR PC IS WATCHING), (TESTIMONIAL) … [Read more...]

I’m Off to the SALT Conference

SALT Conference

I will spend the rest of the week attending the 5th annual SALT conference at the Bellagio Hotel in Las Vegas. This is the preeminent get together of the major players in the hedge fund industry. There, I will hook up with readers, consulting clients, old pals, and former staff, many of whom now run their own multi billion dollar hedge funds. I could write a letter entirely … [Read more...]

July 12 Amsterdam Strategy Luncheon

Amsterdam

Come join John Thomas for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Amsterdam, The Netherlands, on Friday, July 12, 2013. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, … [Read more...]

Be Careful! Your PC is Watching

computer

Hey! You there, staring at this monitor. This is your PC talking to you. No, not you over there standing in the background. I’m talking to the guy sitting in front of me poking at my keys. Ouch! That one hurt! So you thought no one was watching, did you? Let me straighten you out. About a month ago you clicked on a certain website, and I installed myself as a cookie on your … [Read more...]

May 6, 2013

Global Market Comments May 6, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MAY 8 LAS VEGAS STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (BEN’S NEW LEG FOR THE BULL MARKET), (SPY), (IWM), (AAPL), (GLD), (SLV), (CU), (TLT), (YCS), (FXY) (PLEASE USE MY FREE DATA BASE SEARCH) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM) Apple Inc. (AAPL) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) iShares Silver Trust (SLV) First … [Read more...]

May 8 Las Vegas Strategy Luncheon

las-vegas-welcome-sign

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Las Vegas, Nevada on Wednesday, May 8, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. I … [Read more...]

Ben’s New Leg for the Bull Market

Crystal Ball

I just returned from my round of monthly wine club pick-ups in California’s lush and fertile Napa Valley. I invested a half hour soaking up the breathtaking views at the hilltop Silverado winery. Duckhorn offered a lavish lunch event, which I ducked out on. The Wagner family is prospering as always, recently opening a tasting room for their spectacular Caymus private label. The … [Read more...]

Please Use My Free Data Base Search

Woman hitting head

The original purpose of this letter was to build a database of ideas to draw on in the management of my hedge fund. When a certain trade comes into play, I merely type in the symbol, name, currency, or commodity into the search box, and the entire fundamental argument in favor of that position pops up with a link chain to older stories. You can do the same. Just type … [Read more...]

May 3, 2013

Global Market Comments May 3, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (SO I LIED), (TURKEY IS ON THE MENU), (TUR), (TKC) (THE NEW CALIFORNIA GOLD RUSH), (GLD) iShares MSCI Turkey Invest Mkt Index (TUR) Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri AS (TKC) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) … [Read more...]

So I Lied

2013 Trades

I sit here with my fingertips battered, bruised, and bleeding. My lower back aches, and my shoulders are as tight as a drum. After promising to take it easy for a while because the risk/reward in the market so badly sucks, I knocked out six Trade Alerts in one day. That is on top of conducting a one-hour strategy webinar and writing a 1,600 word daily newsletter. So I … [Read more...]

The New California Gold Rush

Panning for Gold

On my way back from Lake Tahoe last weekend I saw that every bend of the American river was dotted with hopeful miners, looking to make a windfall fortune. Weekend hobbyists were there panning away from the banks, while the hardcore pros stood in hip waders balancing portable pumps on truck inner tubes, pouring sand into sluice boxes. Welcome to the new California gold … [Read more...]

Turkey is on the Menu

Istanbul

I am building lists of emerging market ETF’s to snap up during any summer sell off, and Turkey popped up on the menu. The country is only one of two Islamic countries that I consider investment grade, (Indonesia is the other one). The 82 million people of Turkey rank 15th in the world population, and 16th with a GDP of $960 billion GDP. Some 25% of the population is under the … [Read more...]

May 2, 2013

Global Market Comments May 2, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (SELLING GOLD AGAIN), (GLD), (IS USA, INC. A “SELL”), (COLUMBIA IS POPPING UP ON MY RADAR), (GXG), (EEM) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) Global X FTSE Colombia 20 ETF (GXG) iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM) … [Read more...]

Selling Gold Again

Gold Nuggets

The real shocker today in the Fed’s announcement is that it may increase monetary easing from here. As if we haven’t had enough already, with the US and Japan throwing in a combined $170 billion a month worth of monetary stimulus! More easing means that the America’s central bank thinks the global economy is even weaker than you and I realize. Yikes! Man the lifeboats, pass … [Read more...]

Is USA Inc. a “SELL?

Gold Bars

What would happen if I recommended a stock that had no profits, was cash flow negative, and had a net worth of negative $44 trillion? Chances are, you would cancel your subscription, demand a refund, de-friend me from you Facebook account, and delete my email address from your address book. Yet that is precisely what my former colleague at Morgan Stanley did, technology guru … [Read more...]

Columbia is Popping Up on My Radar

Juan Valdez

My current scenario for global equities has them selling off over the summer, then a rebounding led by emerging markets starting sometime in the fall. In that case, you want to start building short lists of high growth countries to pile into, once the turn comes. I would be including Columbia on any such list. It enjoys that sweet spot of being an oil exporting emerging … [Read more...]

May 1, 2013

Global Market Comments May 1, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MAY 1 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (OLD TECH’S BIG COMEBACK), (AAPL), (MSFT), (INTC), (HPQ), (XLK), (AMAT), (GET READY FOR YOUR NEXT BIG TAX HIT) Apple Inc. (AAPL) Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) Intel Corporation (INTC) Hewlett-Packard Company (HPQ) Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK) Applied Materials, Inc. … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss the May 1 Global Strategy Webinar

Robin Williams

My next global strategy webinar will be held on Wednesday, May 1 at 12:00 noon EST. This one will be open to the public, so login in early to get a space. I’ll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, precious metal, and real estate. The goal is to find the cheapest assets in the world to buy, the most expensive to sell short, and the … [Read more...]

Old Tech’s Big Comeback

Dracula

Apple blew away the bears today with the issuance of $17 billion in bonds, the largest such corporate debt issue in history. Spread over two, five, ten, and 30 years, the deal was oversubscribed by more than 3:1, with $40 billion in demand left unfilled. Foreign investors took down a major part of the deal, which explains Deutsche Bank’s senior role in the syndicate. The … [Read more...]

Get Ready for Your Next Big Tax Hit

IRS Emblem plus

No matter what anyone promises you today, this week, or this year, your taxes are going up. I don’t care if you are still licking your wounds from the January 1 payroll tax rise, or the federal tax hike for millionaires, which in my case took my rate up from 35% to 39.6%. At least the capital gains tax is still a steal at 20%. At $1.3 trillion, the budget deficit is so … [Read more...]

April 30, 2013

Global Market Comments April 30, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (TRADE ALERT SERVICE POSTS TWO YEAR 90% PROFIT), (MAY 8 LAS VEGAS STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (IT’S OFFICIAL: THERE’S NOTHING TO DO),  (SPY), (TLT), (JNK), (DINNER WITH ELIOT SPITZER) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond (TLT) SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond (JNK) … [Read more...]

Trade Alert Service Posts Two Year 90% Profit

SPX 4-29-13

The Trade Alert Service of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader has posted a 90.6% profit since the inception of the service 30 months ago. That compares to a modest 21% return for the Dow average during the same period. This raises the average annualized return for the service to 36.2%, elevating it to the absolute apex of hedge fund ranks. My bet that the stock markets would continue … [Read more...]

May 8 Las Vegas Strategy Luncheon

las-vegas-welcome-sign

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Las Vegas, Nevada on Wednesday, May 8, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. I … [Read more...]

It’s Official: There’s Nothing To Do

Plane-Crashed

You may have noticed that I am a man who is never short of words. I also rarely am for wont of things to do. This is one of those times. Every morning, I drag myself out of bed early, throw cold water on my face, and drag my sorry ass to my computers, where I compile lists of the positives and negatives facing the markets. Here is this morning’s list: Negatives *Almost … [Read more...]

Dinner with Eliot Spitzer

Eliot Spitzer

I couldn’t for the life of me figure out why New York’s former governor and federal prosecutor, Eliot Spitzer, wanted to invite me to dinner. He wasn’t flogging a book or promoting a movie, and he certainly wasn’t running for office again. But I went anyway, thinking perhaps the notorious “Client No. 9” might let me peek at his famous black book. Eliot, who showed up wearing … [Read more...]

May 8 Las Vegas Strategy Luncheon

las-vegas-welcome-sign

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Las Vegas, Nevada on Wednesday, May 8, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. I … [Read more...]

The Hard Numbers Behind Selling in May

Beach Sun Bathers

If I had a nickel for every time that I heard the term “Sell in May and go away” this year, I could retire. Oops, I already am retired! In any case, I thought that I would dig out the hard numbers and see how true this old trading adage is. It turns out that it is far more powerful than I imagined. According to the data in the Stock Trader’s Almanac, $10,000 invested at the … [Read more...]

Only Buy Companies You Hate

Anger-Computer

Dilbert cartoonist Scott Adams argues that you should invest in companies you hate, because only the most unprincipled and rapacious firms make the greatest profits. Moral bankruptcy is a great leading indicator of success, and the best ones can get you to balance your wallet on the end of your nose and bark like a seal, as you buy products that you utterly despise. … [Read more...]

April 26, 2013

Global Market Comments April 26, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (WHY I’M COVERING MY BOND SHORTS), (TLT), (TBT) (STEVE JOBS’ LAST LAUGH), (AAPL), (GRAPES OF WRATH REDUX) iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond (TLT) ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) Apple Inc. (AAPL) … [Read more...]

Why I’m Covering My Bond Shorts

Wave - Silkscreen

I am going to bail on my (TBT) position at close to cost. For me, it is amazing that we got a 350-point rally in the Dow and ten-year Treasury bond yields only manage to eke out a gain from 1.68% to 1.72%. I scoured the bond trading pits in Chicago yesterday, and the answer came back the same everywhere. Overwhelming Japanese buying is pushing up the prices of not just … [Read more...]

Steve Jobs’ Last Laugh

Steve Jobs

Nothing beats instant gratification. Bragging rights are nice too. On Monday, when I strapped on this trade, angry readers emailed me to tell me that I was truly out of my mind. Apple was an ex-growth company, had lost its ability to innovate, shed its “cool” factor, and had fallen behind Samsung with its large screen smart phone. The shares were clearly in a free fall to … [Read more...]

Grapes of Wrath Redux

Farmers Market

It’s another sign of the times when the weekend fruit picker population is doubled by people hard hit by the economy, looking to save money on food costs. After driving through miles of undulating brown hills studded with oak trees, passing mile upon mile of horse ranches, rusted out cars, and abandoned mobile homes, you come to Brentwood, the fruit capital of Northern … [Read more...]