Are Junk Bonds Peaking?

Childrens Game

There is no happier corner of the fixed income universe than junk bonds (JNK), (HYG), which have been soaring like a bat out of hell for the past four years. Average yields for the bond class most sensitive to the economy have collapsed from 18% to near an all-time low of 5%, a scant 300 basis points over ten year Treasury bonds (TLT). The ETF (JNK), which I have been … [Read more...]

March 13, 2015 – Quote of the Day

gravity

“We are still in the gravitational pull of the Great Recession. I would have to put the likelihood of a double dip recession now up to 50%,” said my old UC Berkeley economics professor, Robert Reich. … [Read more...]

March 12, 2015

Global Market CommentsMarch 12, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(MAD DAY TRADER JIM PARKER IS UP 39% IN 2015),(ZIOP), (THRX), (ZTS), (DXJ), (USO), (SPY), (IWM),(FRIDAY, MAY 15 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON)(DIAMONDS ARE STILL AN INVESTOR’S BEST FRIEND) ZIOPHARM Oncology, Inc. (ZIOP)Theravance Inc. (THRX)Zoetis Inc. (ZTS)WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity ETF (DXJ)United States Oil … [Read more...]

Mad Day Trader Jim Parker is up 39% in 2015

Jim Parker

Mad Day Trader Jim Parker has been absolutely knocking the cover off the ball this year, delivering a blistering 39% profit so far for followers. He was in and out of the Apple (AAPL) melt up twice. He was early and big in the biotechnology sector, trading around ZIOPHARM Oncology (ZIOP), Therevance (THRX), and Zoetis (ZTS). He played the Japanese economic recovery through … [Read more...]

Diamonds Are Still an Investor’s Best Friend

ring

If you forgot to buy your loved one a birthday present and spent a week sleeping on the sofa, eating canned food, and cleaning out the cat box, you now have a chance to redeem yourself. A revolutionary new website exists called Mazal Diamond, which promises to turn the online jewelry business upside down. I went to the privately held company’s website at … [Read more...]

March 11, 2015

Global Market Comments March 11, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (WHAT ALMONDS SAY ABOUT THE GLOBAL ECONOMY), (BE CAREFUL WHO YOU SNITCH ON), (COULD YOU QUALIFY TO BECOME A US CITIZEN?) … [Read more...]

What Almonds Say About the Global Economy

Almond Trees

Yes, that’s right, you read it correctly, almonds. By now, many of you have figured out that I like calling my paid subscribers to find out how they find the service. I always ask for suggestion for improvements. Then I ask what they do besides trade the markets. I get an amazing array of answers. One reader flew helicopters in Alaska to inspect oil pipelines, executing … [Read more...]

Be Careful Who You Snitch On

Sherron Watkins

Buried in the recently passed Dodd-Frank financial reform bill are massive financial rewards for turning in your boss. The SEC is hoping that multimillion dollar rewards amounting to 10%-30% of sanction amounts will drive a stampede of whistleblowers to their doors with evidence of malfeasance and fraud by their employers. These rewards can be worth hundreds of millions of … [Read more...]

Could You Qualify to Become a US Citizen?

Fireworks

The coming Fourth of July celebration brings back memories of my late wife’s campaign to become an American citizen, who originally came from Japan. Part of the process required a verbal quiz about US history and government. Our family spent a year energetically prepping her, with nightly grilling’s over dinner about the most obscure details of our independent form of … [Read more...]

March 11, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Chinese Military

“If you can’t beat your Chinese competitor in China and win there, you will lose all the markets your like,” said David Cote, CEO of Honeywell.   … [Read more...]

March 10, 2015

Global Market CommentsMarch 10, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(WHY I WENT TO 100% CASH),(HEDJ), (SPY), (FXE), (GLD), (TLT)(THE SOLAR ROAD REVISTED),(AAPL), (GOOG), (TESLA), (FB), (TWTR) WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity ETF (HEDJ)SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)Apple Inc. (AAPL)Google Inc. … [Read more...]

Why I Went to 100% Cash

John Thomas

I am sitting here in the balcony seats at the Napa City Winery. Somehow, my peripatetic social life has dragged me down here to listen to a Hispanic rap group. That’s right, you heard it correctly. A Hispanic rap group. It is midnight. The sound is so loud that it is vibrating through my chest. So I have withdrawn into my own inner silence to contemplate what the hell … [Read more...]

March 9, 2015

Global Market CommentsMarch 9, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(WATCH OUT FOR APPLE IN THE DOW),(AAPL), (T), (MSFT), (CSCO), (INTC),(A COW BASED ECONOMICS LESSON) Apple Inc. (AAPL)AT&T, Inc. (T)Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)Intel Corporation (INTC) … [Read more...]

Watch Out for Apple in the Dow

Apple Watch

Apple holders (AAPL) were ecstatic and even apoplectic when they heard that their beloved company would be joining the Dow Average of 30 stocks on March 18. The move requires thousands of portfolio managers to add Apple to their portfolios, like the $32 billion worth of Dow index managers, whether they want to or not. From now on it will be illegal for them not to own Apple. … [Read more...]

A Cow Based Economics Lesson

HappyCow

SOCIALISM -You have 2 cows. You give one to your neighbor. COMMUNISM -You have 2 cows. The State takes both and gives you some milk. FASCISM -You have 2 cows. The State takes both and sells you some milk. NAZISM -You have 2 cows. The State takes both and shoots you. BUREAUCRATISM -You have 2 cows. The State takes both, shoots one, milks the other, and then throws the milk … [Read more...]

March 9, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Line Dancers

“No one is line dancing over the fact that the market is at 1,940. No one feels good about it. The market likes to climb a wall of worry, and the stonemason has been hard at work. So I think we continue to grind higher,” said Jason Trennert, chief investment strategist at Strategas Research Partners. … [Read more...]

March 6, 2015

Global Market Comments March 6, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER’S SEVENTH ANNIVERSARY ISSUE) (FRIDAY, APRIL 17 INCLINE VILLAGE, NEVADA STRATEGY LUNCHEON) … [Read more...]

The Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s 7th Anniversary Issue

John Thomas

Yes, it seems like it was only yesterday. But as of February 1 the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader has been going out to idea hungry investors now for seven long years. And what a seven years it has been! So I will take the opportunity to explain the murky history of this august publication, which is now visited by thousands of readers every day from 135 countries around the … [Read more...]

March 6, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Vladimir Putin

“I think this is about Russia reasserting itself on the international stage, basically saying that Russia is back and is a force to be reckoned with. I think we underestimated for a long time the extent of the humiliation that Russians felt after the collapse of the Soviet Union,” said former Secretary of Defense and CIA head Robert M. Gates. … [Read more...]

March 5, 2015

Global Market Comments March 5, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (GET READY FOR THE COMING GOLDEN AGE), (SPY), (INDU), (FXE), (FXY), (UNG), (EEM), (USO), (TLT), (NSANY), (TSLA) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) United States Natural Gas (UNG) iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) … [Read more...]

Get Ready for the Coming Golden Age

thunderbird_1

I believe that the global economy is setting up for a new golden age reminiscent of the one the United States enjoyed during the 1950’s, and which I still remember fondly. This is not some pie in the sky prediction. It simply assumes a continuation of existing trends in demographics, technology, politics, and economics. The implications for your investment portfolio will be … [Read more...]

March 5, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Stanley Druckenmiller

By historic, fundamental measures, stocks are extremely high. PE multiples are at 100 years highs. But if you look at stock prices relative to interest rates, they are exactly where they should be,” said hedge fund legend, Stanley Druckenmiller. … [Read more...]

March 4, 2015

Global Market CommentsMarch 4, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(CHICAGO FRIDAY, APRIL 30 GLOBAL STRAGEGY LUNCHEON),(WHY THERE IS NO BUBBLE IN STOCKS),(AAPL), (EBAY), (CSCO), (BRCM), (AMZN),(AN EVENING WITH “GOVERNMENT MOTORS”), (GM) Apple Inc. (AAPL)eBay Inc. (EBAY)Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)Broadcom Corp. (BRCM)Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)General Motors Company (GM) … [Read more...]

Why There is No Bubble in Stocks

Money Bubble

One couldn’t help but notice the outbreak of recollection, reminiscing and schadenfreude that took place yesterday when the NASDAQ briefly tipped over 5,000. I remember it like it was yesterday. I am still amazed by the frenzy that took place, witnessing the kind of bubble one only sees twice a century. And I was right in the thick of it, living in nearby Silicon Valley. … [Read more...]

An Evening with “Government Motors”

GM-CEO-Dan-Akerson-1

Yesterday, the auto industry announced blowout sales figures for February which came in at an eye popping SAAR of 17 million units. We are now within a hairs breadth of the peak last during the salad days of 2001-2002. It all provides more evidence the ultra bull scenario for the rest of 2015, which has the economy growing a 3% annualized rate during the final three quarters … [Read more...]

March 4, 2015 – Quote of the Day

War for Independence

“Our economic machine really works. It’s worked since 1776...Look at any milestone you want to pick, and over time it’s gotten so much better,” said Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett. … [Read more...]

March 3, 2015

Global Market CommentsMarch 3, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(MARCH 4 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),(THERE ARE NO GURUS),(THE COST OF CLEAN COAL),(KOL), (UNG), (PCG), (BTU), (JOY) Market Vectors Coal ETF (KOL)United States Natural Gas (UNG)PG&E Corporation (PCG)Peabody Energy Corp. (BTU)Joy Global, Inc. (JOY) … [Read more...]

There Are No Gurus

Love Guru

If there was ever an argument that you should rely on independent newsletters for guidance about financial markets, such as The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader and not traditional brokerage houses, take a look at the chart below from JP Morgan. It shows that despite all of the reforms passed after the dotcom crash, less than 3% of broker reports come with “sell” or … [Read more...]

The Price Tag for Clean Coal

Smoke Stacks

I wanted to get the low down on clean coal (KOL) to see how clean it really is, so I visited some friends at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California. The modern day descendent of the Atomic Energy Commission, where I had a student job in the early seventies, the leading researcher on laser induced nuclear fission, and the administrator of our atomic weapons … [Read more...]

March 3, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Warren Buffett

“It’s a terrible mistake to own something, just because somebody else owns it, even if that other person is Benjamin Graham, the dean of investing,” said Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett. … [Read more...]

March 2, 2015

Global Market Comments March 2, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (FRIDAY, APRIL 3 HONOLULU, HAWAII STRATEGY LUNCHEON) (THE FED GIVES THE GREEN LIGHT TO STOCKS), (AND MY PREDICTION IS...), (TESTIMONIAL) … [Read more...]

Fed Gives Green Light to Stocks

Women Flapper Dresses

The best is yet to come with regards to the US economy, says the Federal Reserve. The oncoming onslaught of positive economic data means that the bull market in stocks will have years to run. The full impact of the Fed’s aggressive five year, $4.5 trillion program of monetary easing will only start to be felt in 2015. Everything up until now has just been a warm up. … [Read more...]

And My Prediction Is…

The Beatles

Take those predictions, forecasts, and prognostications with so many grains of salt. They have a notorious track record for being completely wrong, even when made by the leading experts in their fields. In preparing for my autumn lecture series, I came across the following nuggets and thought I’d share them with you. There are some real howlers. 1876  "This 'telephone' has too … [Read more...]

Testimonial

BusinessJohnThomasProfileMap2-1

I don’t know what I would do without John Thomas’s information. It is informative and entertaining. In the past 2 years I have almost doubled my portfolio, something I couldn't have done on my own. As a military member, he has enabled me to ensure that I will not only be able to retire on time, but also help my children through college. If things keep going this well, I will … [Read more...]

March 2, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Otto von Bismarck

“A fool learns from experience. A wise man learns from the experience of others,” said Otto Von Bismarck, the first Chancellor of Modern Germany.   … [Read more...]

February 27, 2015

Global Market Comments February 27, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MARCH 4 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (RIGHT SIZING YOUR TRADING), (“THE OPENING BELL WITH JIM PARKER”) … [Read more...]

Right Sizing Your Trading

John Thoms - Black Swans

I can’t tell you how many times I have been woken up in the middle of the night by an investor who was sleepless over a position that was going the wrong way. Gold was down $50, the Euro was spiking two cents, or the stock market was enduring one of its periodic heart attacks. Of course, my answer is always the same. Cut your position in half. If your position is so large … [Read more...]

The Opening Bell with Jim Parker

Jim Parker

The Opening Bell with Jim Parker Well, you asked for it, and now it is here. You were looking for that extra edge in reading and trading the markets? Well, now it is here, The Opening Bell with Jim Parker. With The Opening Bell, Jim Parker will give an early read on where each day’s market action will take place. He will focus on a dozen or so names where traders are most … [Read more...]

February 27, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Rockettes

“The next leg of the bull market is going to have to be a fundamental leg, not a liquidity leg, and investors are in a little bit of a malaise trying to figure that out,” said Anthony Scaramucci of Skybridge Capital. … [Read more...]

February 26, 2015

Global Market CommentsFebruary 26, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(HOW HIGH IS HIGH?),(SPY), (QQQ), (IWM), (USO), (TLT), (VIX),(ORDER EXECUTION 101) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ)iShares Russell 2000 (IWM)United States Oil ETF (USO)iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX) … [Read more...]

How High is High?

Boulevard

Those who read my New Year predictions already know that my target for the S&P 500 at the end of 2015 is a range of 2,288-2,392, or up 10%-15%. When I made that forecast, I was heaped with abuse, derision and scorn, as usual. Perma bears and market haters never miss an opportunity to loose their slings and arrows against those who have been bullish (read accurate), … [Read more...]

Order Execution 101

Diver

Given the recent difficulty in placing orders in this tedious, illiquid market, I have been inundated with requests for how to execute orders. So I thought I’d take some time today to expound on the basics of order execution 101. There are three basic ways to intelligently get an order into the market: 1) The No Brainer Average In. Buy half at the receipt of the Trade Alert … [Read more...]

February 25, 2015

Global Market CommentsFebruary 25, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(WHY SOLAR STOCKS ARE CATCHING ON FIRE),(FSLR), (SPWR), (SCTY),(INDIA IS CATCHING UP WITH CHINA),(TESTIMONIAL) First Solar, Inc. (FSLR)SunPower Corporation (SPWR)SolarCity Corporation (SCTY) … [Read more...]

Why Solar Stocks are Catching on Fire

Solar Panels

Long time solar observers were stunned by the news that First Solar (FSLR) and Sunpower (SPWR) were teaming up to create a joint venture. The stock market certainly got the message. Sunpower rocketed by 18%, while First Solar soared by 17%. Imagine Macy’s merging with Gimbels, Coke tying up with Pepsi or the Los Angeles Dodgers teaming up with the San Francisco Giants? It’s … [Read more...]

India is Catching Up With China

Rickshaw

When I first visited Calcutta in 1976, more than 800,000 people were sleeping on the sidewalks, I was hauled everywhere by a very lean, barefoot rickshaw driver, and drinking the water out of a tap was tantamount to committing suicide. Aggressive population control measures where underway and strict quotas were in force. Everyone was taking their grandmother in to get … [Read more...]

Testimonial

Jim Parker

I bought Theravance Inc. (THRX) call options at 20 cents and sold them for 95 cents. Thank Jim Parker for the lotto win. James Sydney, Australia … [Read more...]

February 25, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Ghandi

“The last time oil stocks were this high, Gandhi was on the cover of Time Magazine and most Germans thought Hitler was clown. IT was 1930.” said Stephen Schork of the Schork Report. … [Read more...]

February 24, 2015

Global Market CommentsFebruary 24, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(DIPPING MY TOES BACK INTO GOLD),(GLD), (SLV), (GDX), (ABX), (PALL)(THE GAME CHANGER IN INDIA),(INP), (PIN), (EPI), (EEM), (CEW), (ELD),(USO), (KOL), (CU), (GLD) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)iShares Silver Trust (SLV)Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX)ETFS Physical Palladium (PALL)iPath … [Read more...]

Dipping My Toes Back Into Gold

Gold Coins

One of my best calls of 2014 was to plead with readers to avoid gold like the plague, periodically dipping in on the short side only. Gold certainly delivered disappointment in spades, falling 4%, while the US stocks, bonds and the dollar were on fire. The barbarous relic has been in a bear market since it peaked at $1,922 an ounce at the end of August, 2011. Gold shares have … [Read more...]

The Game Changer in India

India Election Results

So far in 2015 the Indian stock market has handily beaten that of the US, by 10.6% compared to 5.3%. “The India election result is the biggest development to affect emerging markets over the last 30 years.” That is what retired chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management and originator of the “BRIC” term, Jim O’Neal, told me last week. Indeed, the stunning news has sent long … [Read more...]

February 12, 2014 – Quote of the Day

Gorilla

“China is still the 800 pound gorilla. Maybe it’s no longer going to grow at 10%, but it’s still going to grow at a faster rate than Europe or the US,” said Edwin Rodriguez Jr., the biggest financial advisor in Louisiana, with $2.8 billion in assets. … [Read more...]

February 23, 2015

Global Market Comments February 23, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE SPRING IN CISCO’S SYSTEM’S STEP), (CSCO), (REPORT ON THE 6th ANNUAL SKYBRIDGE ALTERNATIVES CONFERENCE) Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) … [Read more...]

The Spring in Cisco’s System’s Step

Marty Cooper

I thought I noticed a spring in the step of Cisco Systems (CSCO) CEO John Chambers when he strutted out on TV to announce earnings last week. Revenue came in just shy of $12 billion, a 7% improvement over fiscal 2014's Q2, and earnings per share really popped -- up 70% on a GAAP basis (including one-time items) to $2.4 billion from the prior year's "paltry" $1.4 billion. … [Read more...]

Report on the 6th Annual SkyBridge Alternatives (SALT) Conference

Anthony Scaramucci

Once again, I am writing to you from the poolside cabana B-2 at the Bellagio Hotel in Las Vegas. It is a baking hot 100 degrees in the shade and the air is bone-dry, so I’m draining my third rum punch for the day. The days when I risked getting dragged out to the parking lot to get my hands broken with a hammer for card counting at blackjack have long since passed, so I am … [Read more...]

February 20, 2015

Global Market CommentsFebruary 20, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(A NOTE ON THE FRIDAY OPTIONS EXPIRATION),(FXY), (GILD), (SPY), (VIX),(TLT), (IWM), (QQQ), (SCTY), (USO), (GLD), (AN EVENING WITH TEXAS GOVERNOR RICK PERRY), (LNG), (UNG), (TSLA) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY)Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD)SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX)iShares 20+ Year … [Read more...]

A Note on the Friday Options Expiration

Pat on the back

We have several options positions that expire on Friday, and I just want to explain to the newbies how to best maximize their profits. These include: The Currency Shares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) February $84-$87 vertical bear put spread The Gilead Sciences (GILD) February $87.50-$92.50 vertical bull call spread The S&P 500 (SPY) February $199-$202 vertical bull call … [Read more...]

An Evening with Texas Governor Rick Perry

Rick Perry

As a precondition to joining a dinner with Texas governor, Rick Perry, I had to promise many things. I was not allowed to bring up the fact that he shoots coyotes while jogging. I couldn’t mention statistics proving that 70% of the jobs created in his state during his 12-year tenure as governor were government ones, not private. I was not even permitted to ask what would have … [Read more...]

February 20, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Lake Tahoe

“…at last the lake burst upon us—a noble sheet of blue water…walled in by a rim of snow-clad mountain peaks...As it lay there with the shadows of the mountains brilliantly photographed upon its still surface I thought it must surely be the fairest picture the whole earth affords.” said the American writer, Mark Twain, on his first sight of Lake Tahoe in 1861, pictured below. … [Read more...]

February 19, 2015

Global Market CommentsFebruary 19, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(THE BEST IS YET TO COME IN CRUDE),(USO), (XOM), (COP), (OXY),(AN EVENING WITH DAVID TEPPER) United States Oil ETF (USO)Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)ConocoPhillips (COP)Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) … [Read more...]

The Best is yet to Come in Crude

Oil Storage

For the last few months, I have leapt off my biweekly global strategy webinars to check the weekly crude inventories announced minutes before. This week’s figures absolutely blew me away. The American Petroleum Institute reported that crude stocks rose a staggering 14.3 million barrels over the past week. This is the biggest weekly build that I can remember after covering the … [Read more...]

An Evening with David Tepper

David Tepper

“There is a time to make money, and a time to not lose money. This is one of those times.” That was the insightful gem I came away with after listening to David Tepper speak at the 7th annual SALT Alternative Investment Conference in Las Vegas Nevada. Tepper continued, opining that the markets are “dangerous” here, and that he was “nervous.” “It was easy to buy stocks (SPY), … [Read more...]

February 19, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Kevin Spacey

“I want staffers who are so loyal that they will kiss my ass in Macy’s front window and tell everyone it smells like roses,” said the late president, Lyndon Baines Johnson, the model for the character, Francis Underwood, in the hit cable TV series House of Cards. … [Read more...]

February 18, 2015

Global Market Comments February 18, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (AN AFTERNOON WITH GENERAL COLIN POWEL) … [Read more...]

An Afternoon with General Colin Powell

Colin Powell

I have long had enormous respect for General Colin Powell. My commanding four star general when I was flying errands for the Marine Corps. during Desert Storm, he fights my kind of war; they’re very short, three days in the case of desert storm, and we won. And topping everything else, the Kuwaitis paid for it all. It was the best training exercise I ever enjoyed. General … [Read more...]

February 17, 2015

Global Market CommentsFebruary 17, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(FRIDAY, APRIL 3 HONOLULU, HAWAII STRATEGY LUNCHEON),(HOW FAR WILL BIOTECH RUN?),(GILD), (IBB) Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD)iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) … [Read more...]

How Far Will Biotech Run?

Scientist Bio Lab

Long-term readers of this letter have prospered mightily from my addiction to biotech stocks in recent years, one of the most reliably top performing sectors in the stock market. But have we visited the well one time too many times? Is biotech turning into a bubble that will eventually deliver the same grievous outcome of other past bubbles? Not yet. Still, one has to ask … [Read more...]

February 16, 2015

Global Market CommentsFebruary 16, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(FEBRUARY 18 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),(WHY ARE BOND YIELDS SO LOW?)(TLT), (TBT), (LQD), (MUB), (LINE), (ELD),(QQQ), (UUP), (EEM), (DBA)(BRING BACK THE UPTICK RULE!) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)iShares iBoxx $ Invst Grade Crp Bond (LQD)iShares National AMT-Free … [Read more...]

Why Are Bond Yields So Low?

Orangutan

Investors around the world have been confused, befuddled and surprised by the persistent, ultra low level of long term interest rates in the United States. At today’s close, the 30 year Treasury bond yielded a parsimonious 2.01%, the ten year, 2.62%, and the five year only 1.51%. The ten-year was threatening its all time low yield of 1.37% only two weeks ago, a return as rare … [Read more...]

Bring Back the Uptick Rule!

Art work

When the Dow crashed 514 points in a single day a few years ago, the market lost a staggering $850 billion in market capitalization. High frequency traders were possibly responsible for half of this move, but generated a mere $65 million in profits, some 7/1,000’s of a percent of the total loss. Are market authorities and regulators being penny wise, but pound foolish? The … [Read more...]

February 13, 2015

Global Market CommentsFebruary 13, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(FEBRUARY 18 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),(THE CASE FOR EUROPE),(FXE), (HEDJ), (RSX), (GREK), (GLD), (TLT), (SPY)(OPTIONS FOR THE BEGINNER) CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity ETF (HEDJ)Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX)Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (GREK)SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)iShares 20+ Year … [Read more...]

The Case for Europe

Foie Gras

I have been to Greece many times over the past 45 years, and I’ll tell you that I just love the place. The beaches are perfect, the Ouzo wine enticing, and I’ll never say “No” to a good moussaka. However, I don’t let Greece dictate my investment strategy. Greece, in fact, accounts for less than 2% of Europe’s GDP. It is not a storm in a teacup that is going on there, but a … [Read more...]

Options for the Beginner

Options for the Beginner and Beyond

I strongly urge readers of this letter to log on to Amazon and by a copy of Options for the Beginner and Beyond by W. Edward Olmstead. Options contracts offer investors a wonderful instrument for minimizing risk, while maximizing the upside, and I am going to recommend many more such strategies in the future. So, if you want to have the slightest idea of what I am talking … [Read more...]

February 13, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Evolution - Homo Sapiens

“Homo Sapiens, the first truly free species, is about to decommission the natural selection, the force that made us,” said E.O. Wilson, a Harvard University biology professor. … [Read more...]

February 12, 2015

Global Market CommentsFebruary 12, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(HITTING TWO HOME RUNS IN ONE DAY),(FXY), (GILD),(THE NEW COLD WAR),(THE HISTORY OF TECHNOLOGY) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY)Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD) … [Read more...]

Hitting Two Home Runs in One Day

Sovaldi - Pills

Those of you who are paid subscribers have the good fortune of waking up to a bounty of riches this morning. Both Gilead Sciences (GILD) and the Japanese yen (FXY) have made gap moves in your favor overnight. Your long position in (GILD) saw a nice little $2 pop to the upside, and your short in the (FXY) just got whacked in the knees, down a full $1. As a result, the Trade … [Read more...]

The History of Technology

The-Victorian-Internet-Standage-Tom-9780802716040

I have just finished leisurely reading Tom Standage’s book The Victorian Internet: The Remarkable Story of the Telegraph and the Nineteenth Century On-Line Pioneers. Standage discusses the creation and development of the telegraph system and how it revolutionized communication in the nineteenth century. The book claims that Modern Internet users are in many ways the heirs of … [Read more...]

February 11, 2015

Global Market Comments February 11, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (WHO THE GRAND NICARAGUA CANAL HAS WORRIED), (SCAM OF THE MONTH) … [Read more...]

Who the Grand Nicaragua Canal Has Worried

Artists Rendition of Nicaragua Canal

Multinationals, Global development economists and armchair military strategists are all watching with great interest China’s plans to build a Grand Nicaragua Canal. The government in Managua inked a deal with a Hong Kong based consortium in 2013, led by telecommunications magnate Wang Jing, and broke ground on a minor access road on December 22. But that is a very long way … [Read more...]

Scam of the Month

Bernie Madoff

Having trouble raising capital for your new hedge fund? Just list Warren Buffet as your “Honorary Chairman.” That’s what California prison guard Ottoniel Medrano did. To help his marketing efforts, he also claimed that he had $4.8 billion in assets under management as well as massive real estate holdings somewhere in Asia. Medrano’s International Realty Holdings managed to … [Read more...]

February 11, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Winston Churchill

“A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity, and optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” said the late British Prime Minister, Winston Churchill. … [Read more...]

February 10, 2015

Global Market CommentsFebruary 10, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(WHY THE JANUARY NONFARM PAYROLL WAS A BIG DEAL),(IWM), (DXJ), (HEDJ), (FXE), (FXY),(THE BIPOLAR ECONOMY),(TESTIMONIAL) iShares Russell 2000 (IWM)WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity ETF (DXJ)WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity ETF (HEDJ)CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY) … [Read more...]

Why the January Nonfarm Payroll Was a Big Deal

Unemployment Line

Economists were blown away by the January nonfarm payroll numbers, announced on Friday. Some 257,000 jobs were added the previous month, holding the headline unemployment figure at 5.7%. Far more important were the revisions for earlier months, which saw December increased to a robust 329,000 and November bumped up to a breathtaking 423,000. These numbers are almost back to … [Read more...]

The Bipolar Economy

Girl-Sad

Corporate earnings are up big! Buy! No wait! The economy is going down the toilet! Sell! Buy! Sell! Buy! Sell! Help!! Anyone would be forgiven for thinking that the stock market has become bipolar. According to the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis, the answer is that corporate profits accounts for only a small part of the economy. Using the income method of … [Read more...]

Testimonial

BusinessJohnThomasProfileMap2-1

I cannot give higher marks to John's style of approaching the market. My wife has learned so much from him that we are actually having conversations about the global economy. Wow! You will learn money management, the concept of risk versus reward, and how to take advantage of trades that are worth taking. Thanks John! Robert B. New York … [Read more...]

February 10, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Ticker Tape

"Where a calculator on the Eniac is equipped with 18,000 tubes and weighs 30 tons, computers in the future may have only 1,000 vacuum tubes, and weigh 1.5 tons." said Popular Mechanics magazine in 1949. … [Read more...]

February 9, 2015

Global Market CommentsFebruary 9, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(THE 12 NEW TRADING RULES FOR 2015),(AN ENVIRONMENTAL ACTIVISTS TAKE ON THE MARKETS),(DBA), (MOO), (PHO), (FIW)(FRIDAY, APRIL 3 HONOLULU, HAWAII STRATEGY LUNCHEON) PowerShares DB Agriculture ETF (DBA)Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO)PowerShares Water Resources ETF (PHO)First Trust ISE Water ETF (FIW) … [Read more...]

The 12 New Trading Rules for 2015

John Thomas

1) Dump all hubris, pretentions and stubbornness. It will only cost you money. 2) The market is always right, even if all the prices appear wrong. 3) Only buy the puke outs and sell the euphoria. Do anything in the middle, and you will get whipsawed. 4) Outright calls and puts are offering a better risk/reward right now than bull and bear vertical call and put spreads, which … [Read more...]

An Environmental Activist’s Take on the Markets

Waterfall

I spent an evening with Lester Brown, president of the Earth Policy Institute and a winner of the coveted MacArthur Prize, for some long-term thinking about the environment and its investment implications. Global warming is causing the melting of ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, glaciers in the Himalayas and the Sierra snowpack. Water tables are falling and fossil … [Read more...]

February 9, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Surfing

“Most inventions fail because the timing is wrong. Inventing is a lot like surfing. You have to anticipate and catch the wave just at the right moment,” said computer scientist and futurologist, Ray Kurzweil. … [Read more...]

February 6, 2015

Global Market Comments February 6, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (SHOPPING FOR A NEW BROKER) … [Read more...]

Shopping for a New Broker

Female Office Worker

Many of you have figured out by now that I like to call my paid subscribers once a year, ask how the service is working for them, and how to improve it. Most of you are shocked that I take the time and trouble to do this. Many ask if, in fact, I am a robot. But the feedback I get is worth it. And many of you are downright fascinating people. After all, you did make one of the … [Read more...]

February 5, 2015

Global Market CommentsFebruary 5, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(TRADING DEVOID OF THE THOUGHT PROCESS),(SPY), (INDU), (TLT), (USO),(GOING BACK INTO GILEAD SCINECES), (GILD),(ON EXECUTING TRADE ALERTS) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU)iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)United States Oil ETF (USO)Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD) … [Read more...]