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DougD

July, 2012 European Strategy Tour

Lunch

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy lunches and seminars, which I will be conducting in Europe during July, 2012. A PowerPoint presentation will be followed by an open discussion on the crucial issues facing investors today.

I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be tossing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week.

I?ll be arriving early and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one chat, or just sit around and discuss in depth the financial markets. Here are the dates and prices:

July 16 - London lunch - $299
July 17 - Paris lunch - $259
July 18 - Frankfurt - $279
July 27 - Zermatt seminar - $219

I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store at http://madhedgefundradio.com/category/luncheons/ .

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/bio.jpg 264 400 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2012-06-28 23:07:322012-06-28 23:07:32July, 2012 European Strategy Tour
DougD

I?m Heading Off to Europe

Diary

My tuxes are packed, the hotels are booked, and the limo is waiting outside. The Lear jet is fully fueled up and waiting for me at nearby Buchanan Field, the flight plan already filed. I am taking off for Europe today for a mix of business and pleasure.

Along the way I will be meeting with other hedge fund managers, senior government officials, CEO?s at major banks and Fortune 500 companies, large institutional investors, and a Nobel Prize winner or two. Getting out into the real world and soaking up new data and opinions is invaluable in shaping my own global view, and your performance benefits from it. I don?t find these people walking across my living room, so go out into the world and seek them I must.

I?ll kick off my trip with a strategy luncheon in Chicago on June 29, which is always well attended. Pit traders from the CME should note that tank tops and flip flops are not permitted by the club. With any luck, you will later find me that evening at the Windy City?s Union Station waiting for the overnight train to New York, the famed Lake Shore Limited. I always get a ton of writing done on these long train rides.

The Fourth of July will find me on a reader?s mega yacht watching the fireworks near the Brooklyn Bridge. I hope to reconnect with many old friends at my New York strategy seminar on July 5. The next day I will enjoy the view from my penthouse suite on Cunard?s Queen Mary II as we pass the Statue of Liberty outbound for Southampton, England. Hopefully, those who signed up for my Seminar at Sea are well stocked with motion sickness pills.

In London I?ll catch William Shakespeare?s The Tempest at the Globe Theater, spend an evening at the Royal Ballet, and visit the Royal Academy of Arts Summer Exhibition. At least one morning you will find me catching an old fashioned straight razor shave at the Jermyn Street Barbers, and topping up my supply of business shirts at Turnbull & Asser. The cheese trolley at the Michelin restaurant is to die for.

For accommodations, I?ll be staying at the ever reliable, if not spartan, British Navy Officers Club. You know, the place where Horatio Nelson used to hang out with his pals? After my July 16 London strategy luncheon it will be a race to St. Pancreas Station to catch the Eurostar under the English Channel to Paris.

I will spend the night at the French Army Officers Club. You know, the place where Napoleon killed time with his buddies? Last time I had dinner there, the table on my right saw a group packed with French Air Force officers planning the next NATO air strike on Libya, while the one on my left saw a group negotiating to sell an aircraft carrier to some Chinese admirals. My ears were ringing for a week.

Frankfurt is next on the agenda where I?ll be hosting a strategy lunch on July 18, intermixed with meetings with the CEO?s of major German industrial companies seeking how to navigate the global economy in the ?new normal.? After that, I am counting on my winter of polka instructions to pay off big time.

In the lead up to my July 27 strategy seminar in Zermatt, I?ll be consulting with the representatives of some Middle Eastern royal families while they vacation in the Alps. One afternoon will be devoted to taking the paddle wheel steamer on Lake Geneva to the Chateau de Chillon in Montreux where Lord Byron used to live, sipping fine Swiss white wines along the way.

The high point of my trip, both literally and figuratively, will be my annual assault on the Matterhorn, which at 14,692 feet is higher than anything we have in the continental US. With another year of arduous training under my belt, it?s now or never. I?ll spend my evenings at public steam rooms where, afterwards, I roll around in the snow with the local fr?uleins and beat myself with birch branches. It is invigorating, to say the least. Those Europeans are so open-minded.

The chalet that I have reserved has a granite boulder foundation, an outhouse, and high-speed broadband. I will be ducking out from my mountain hideout only to fly to London for the day from the nearby Swiss Air Force base at Sion on a client?s private jet to attend the opening ceremony for the Olympics.

Next, it?s on to Milan.? If a new Brioni suit and pair of Gucci shoes throw themselves upon me while I stroll through the Galleria I may be unable to resist.

I will be traveling with my laptop and keeping touch with the markets. While 17th and 18th century Internet service is passable, it is unreliable. So unless I see something extraordinary, I will be issuing few new trade alerts. The remaining positions in the model portfolio are best left to ferment over a slow summer and profit from the time decay.

After grinding out more quality content than anyone else on the Internet and maintaining an average annualized 30% return, I deserve a break. The month of May alone saw me shoot out 28 trade alerts, 20 letters, 5 live webinars, and countless radio and TV interviews. I?m basically writing the equivalent of ?War and Peace? every six months. It took Tolstoy ten years to pen his, but then he didn?t have Microsoft Office. I need to spend some time alone on a mountain top, communing with the spirits, attempting to focus on long term financial trends through the smoke and dust.

While on the road, I will be re-running some of my favorite research pieces from the past, interspersed with some new pieces that I will write on the road. This is to expose my thousands of new subscribers to the golden oldies, and to remind the legacy readers who have since forgotten them. I?ll return to my desk in San Francisco full time on August 8.

In the meantime, I shall be raising a glass of vintage Champagne to all of you at dinner as we pass over the Titanic on the 100th anniversary of its sinking, the loyal readers of the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader. Salut! Prost! And Cheers! I couldn?t do all of this without you. Thank you for my great life!

 

I?ll Meet You on Top

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/mountain.jpg 217 288 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2012-06-28 23:03:262012-06-28 23:03:26I?m Heading Off to Europe
DougD

June 29, 2012 - Quote of the Day

Quote of the Day

?The Fed only knows two speeds; too fast, and too slow,? said Nobel Prize winning economist Milton Friedman to me over lunch one day.

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/man.png 158 137 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2012-06-28 23:01:492012-06-28 23:01:49June 29, 2012 - Quote of the Day
DougD

Be Careful Who You Snitch On

Diary

Buried in the recently passed Dodd-Frank financial reform bill are massive financial rewards for turning in your crooked boss. The SEC is hoping that multimillion dollar rewards amounting to 10%-30% of sanction amounts will drive a stampede of whistleblowers to their doors with evidence of malfeasance and fraud by their employers.

If such rules were in place at the time of the settlement with Goldman Sachs (GS), the bonus, in theory, could have been worth up to $500 million. Wall Street firms are bracing themselves for an onslaught of claims, legitimate and otherwise, by droves of hungry gold diggers looking for an early retirement.

Don't count on this as a get rich quick scheme. Government hurdles to meet the requirement of a true stoolie can be daunting. The standard of evidence demanded is high, and must be matched with the violation of specific federal laws. Idle chit chat at the water cooler won't do. Litigation can stretch out over five years, involve substantial legal costs, and often lead to a non-financial settlement with no reward. For those who do deliver the goods, death threats from defendants are not unheard of.

Having 'rat' on your resume doesn't exactly look inviting either. Just ask Sherron Watkins, the in-house CPA who turned in energy giant Enron's Ken Lay, Andy Fastow, and Jeffrey Skilling just before it crashed in flames. Nearly a decade later, Sherron earns a modest living on the lecture circuit warning of the risks of false accounting, and whistleblowing. There have been no job offers.

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/7499cd10acd58ad3c5e9.jpg 347 354 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2012-06-27 21:49:172012-06-27 21:49:17Be Careful Who You Snitch On
DougD

June 28, 2012 - Quote of the Day

Quote of the Day

?If there were no way to short stocks, the probability of stock market bubbles would be much greater,? said hedge fund manager, Bill Ackman, of Pershing Square.

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/woman.jpg 85 128 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2012-06-27 21:40:362012-06-27 21:40:36June 28, 2012 - Quote of the Day
DougD

Obama?s Unintended Oil Consequences

Newsletter

Back in March, oil broke the $110/barrel level and gasoline was rapidly approaching the $5/gallon level, threatening to derail Obama?s reelection campaign. The administration enlisted Europe to join it in a boycott of Iranian oil in an effort to get the Islamic republic to retreat from is program to develop a nuclear weapon. Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, responded by threatening to close the Straits of Hormuz, thus blocking exports to the west. It all had the makings of a first class crises that could have taken oil up to $125 or higher.

There was no way that the president was going to let Texas Tea to pee on his parade, so he took quick action to cut the knees out from under it. He threatened to release supplies from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in Louisiana, which was chocked full. He browbeat the CFTC into substantially raising margin requirements for oil and other commodities with his attack on ?speculators?.

He then convinced Saudi Arabia to ramp up its production to the max, over 12 million barrels a day, to head off any ill-timed price spikes. The Saudis, believing it was time to discipline recalcitrant minor producing OPEC members, like Iran, with the threat of lower prices, happily complied.

Crude gave back $5 in the bat of an eyelash, and then launched a $33 downslide that had oil trading at the $77 handle on Monday. What Obama didn?t expect was an assist in his strategy to cripple oil prices from a flock of ?black swans?.

The next chapter in the European sovereign debt debacle pushed the continent into a more severe recession, cooling energy demand there. Libya has been bringing production on line faster than expected. Every downtick in China?s anticipated GDP growth rate shaves a few more dollars off oil. A shortage of pipeline capacity is causing oil to pile up at the massive storage facilities Cushing, Oklahoma, slowing export deliveries. It all adds up to a rare perfect storm for oil. To Obama?s delight, gasoline may be selling for the high $2 range in much of the country by the November election.

As I regularly harangue readers and attendees at my strategy luncheons, imminent America energy independence is the least understood but most important factor that will impact financial markets in the years ahead. Over the last two years, domestic production has soared from 8.5 million barrels a day to 10.5 million, thanks to the miracle of fracking technology, which I helped pioneer a decade ago. That?s more that we buy from Saudi Arabia annually.

North Dakota has just replaced Alaska as the second largest oil producing state. The boom there has been so rapid that massive RV camps of itinerate roustabouts now litter the Northern plains. In the meantime, imports have plummeted from 13 million barrels a day to only 9 million.

But I think the current crash in oil will be a temporary one. For a start, the Seaway pipeline reverses next week, breaking the Cushing bottleneck, enabling North Dakota oil to reach the Gulf ports. The current $78 oil price is already below the cost of the most important sources of supply, such as Canadian oil sands and deep offshore wells.

I think that financial markets will enjoy a ?RISK ON? rally starting from this summer as they start to discount the conclusion of the presidential election, the next European LTRO quantitative easing, and possibly a QE3 from the Federal Reserve. This could all pave the way for a rebound in oil to $90 or more.

So there is an attractive trade setting up here. You can buy the oil major ETF (DIG). Interesting single stock plays at these levels include ExxonMobile (XOM), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), and Cabot Oil & Gas (COG). You can also buy call spreads in the oil ETF (USO). A more cautious strategy might be to sell short out of the money puts on the (USO). Sure, the tracking error on this horrible ETF is huge, thanks to the contango, but at least you can take in the time premium.

My long term view on oil is that we spike one more time to $150-$200. Having spent 45 years studying the industry closely and knowing principals like Armand Hammer and Boone Pickens, I can tell you the one simple rule of thumb to observe with this industry. Doing anything costs extraordinary amounts of money and takes a really long time. The calloused men who run the oil majors don?t hesitate to spending tens of billions of dollars to finance projects in the most inhospitable parts of the world with 40 year payouts. No matter what we do today, it will be impossible to head off another severe oil shortage.

After that, we will fall to $10 as oil is removed from the global economy and is only used as a petrochemical feedstock for plastics, pharmaceuticals, asphalt, and jet fuel. This will happen because of the rise of cheap natural gas, alternative energy sources, more efficient building designs, a better power grid, the advent of low end nuclear power plants, and cars that get 100 miles per gallon or use no gasoline at all.

Of course the CEO?s of the oil majors laugh when I tell them this. I?m sure that the hay industry similarly laughed in 1900 if you told them about the coming demise of the horse as a mode of transportation. But it may take 40 year for us to get there. I hope I live to see it.

 

(

 

 

 

Time for a Punt?

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2012-06-26 23:03:032012-06-26 23:03:03Obama?s Unintended Oil Consequences
DougD

My Update on India

Diary

The great thing about running an online newsletter is that it is not only self-correcting, it is self-enhancing. Whenever I make a mistake or state a factual error, my inbox catches on fire when corrections, additional data, and chastisements. Ditto when I exclude some key points to bolster my own arguments. So I thought I would publish a letter I received from a reader from the subcontinent regarding yesterday?s piece on ?India is Catching Up With China? (click here).

?Dear Sir,
I am surprised in your comparison with China because you have missed several important points. India is a democracy. It does not have a Ponzi/mafia political party which focuses on looting the nation. Check out the number of billionaires in the Communist Party of China. Patents are relatively much safer in India. The press is free and vibrant. There is no "mad" overcapacity in anything like empty buildings/cities and the like.

The Indian judiciary is slow and generally very fair. India does not have problems of one child policy. Air pollution in Indian cities is probably lower. Most importantly: the fundamentals of the Indian economy in many ways are better than the Chinese. India does not control its currency artificially. There are fewer Indians trying to run out of India than Chinese trying to run out of China. In fact, most Indians can take foreign currency outside the country up to a limit. Few do it in China.?

Regards,
Kshitij Gupta

 

 

Here?s the Better Bet

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/Northeast20India.jpg 274 400 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2012-06-26 23:02:302012-06-26 23:02:30My Update on India
DougD

June 27, 2012 - Quote of the Day

Quote of the Day

?The number one performing stock market of the past ten years in nominal terms has been Zimbabwe. But if you bought equities there you lost all your money because the ZWD$3 trillion you made now buys you three eggs,? said Kyle Bass of hedge fund, Hyman Capital.

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/zimbabwe-1.jpg 166 320 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2012-06-26 23:01:412012-06-26 23:01:41June 27, 2012 - Quote of the Day
DougD

Sold Out! Last Chance to Attend the Chicago Strategy Luncheon This Friday, June 29th!!

Lunch

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Chicago on Friday, June 29, 2012. A three course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period.

I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $260.

I?ll be arriving an hour early and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.

The lunch will be held at a downtown Chicago venue on Monroe Street that will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.

I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/chicago-2.jpg 267 400 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2012-06-26 18:08:142012-06-26 18:08:14Sold Out! Last Chance to Attend the Chicago Strategy Luncheon This Friday, June 29th!!
DougD

India is Catching Up With China

Diary

When I first visited Calcutta in 1976, more than 800,000 people were sleeping on the sidewalks, I was hauled everywhere by a very lean, barefoot rickshaw driver, and drinking the water out of a tap was tantamount to committing suicide. Some 36 years later, and the subcontinent is poised to overtake China's white hot growth rate.

My friends at the International Monetary Fund just put out a report predicting that India will grow by 8.5% this year. While the country's total GDP is only a quarter of China's $5 trillion, its growth could exceed that in the Middle Kingdom as early as 2013. Many hedge funds believe that India will be the top growing major emerging market for the next 25 years, and are positioning themselves accordingly.

India certainly has a lot of catching up to do. According to the World Bank, its per capita income is $3,275, compared to $6,800 in China and $46,400 in the US. This is with the two populations close in size, at 1.3 billion for China and 1.2 billion for India.

But India has a number of advantages that China lacks. To paraphrase hockey great, Wayne Gretzky, you want to aim not where the puck is, but where it's going to be. The massive infrastructure projects that have powered much of Chinese growth for the past three decades, such as the Three Gorges Dam, are missing in India. But financing and construction for huge transportation, power generation, water, and pollution control projects are underway.

A large network of private schools is boosting education levels, enabling the country to capitalize on its English language advantage. When planning the expansion of my own business, I was presented with the choice of hiring a website designer here for $60,000 a year, or in India for $5,000. That's why booking a ticket on United Airlines or calling technical support at Dell Computer gets you someone in Bangalore.

India is also a huge winner on the demographic front, with one of the lowest ratios of social service demanding retirees in the world. China's 30 year old 'one child' policy is going to drive it into a wall in ten years, when the number of retirees starts to outnumber their children.

There is one more issue out there that few are talking about. The reform of the Chinese electoral process at the next People's Congress in 2013 could lead to posturing and political instability which the markets could find unsettling. India is the world's largest democracy, and much of its current prosperity can be traced to wide ranging deregulation and modernization than took place 20 years ago.

I have been a big fan of India for a long time, and not just because they constantly help me fix my computers. In August, I recommended Tata Motors (TTM), and it has gone up in a straight line since, instantly making it one of my top picks of the year. On the next decent dip take a look at the Indian ETF's (INP), (PIN), and (EPI).

 

 

 

 

Better to Own This Pyramid

Than This Pyramid

Taxi! Taxi!

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/tj-HFFsOE1rl9kn-ytg_atX_AvPxCsBDaNPZL_Ns4dEDy04GIX0B2-hL7J0ja1HCzOPmu4WkU01n-UTxmZ_5NqhSanSfGE86TTXItXt3ypWAWiZ1EoU.jpg 240 320 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2012-06-25 21:04:362012-06-25 21:04:36India is Catching Up With China
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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