Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader's Global Strategy Updates, which I will be conducting throughout Europe during the summer of 2013. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period.
I'll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I'll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store at http://madhedgefundradio.com/ and click on "LUNCHEONS" and then the post for the city that you wish to attend.
New York City -July 2
London, England -July 8
Amsterdam, Netherlands -July 12
Berlin, Germany -July 16
Frankfurt, Germany -July 19
Portofino, Italy -July 25
Mykonos, Greece- August 1
Zermatt, Switzerland - August 9
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Europe.jpg323299Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-05-24 09:48:082013-05-24 09:48:08Updated 2013 Strategy Luncheon Schedule
I am happy to report that we are making great progress with The Mad Day Trader, rapidly evolving the service to best meet the needs of the professional trader. We have already closed huge winners in soybeans (SM), the iPath Dow Jones AIG Grains Total Return Index ETF (JJG), and short Treasury bond (TBT).
It is not easy for me to translate "traderese" in plain English, but the readers say it's worth the effort. As of today, trader Jim Parker will be posting his open positions on the website, which will be updated daily. We have temporary parked them under the Global Trading Dispatch menu tab under "POSITIONS" (just click here). Things will migrate further once we refine the product.
While the Global Trading Dispatch focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader will exploit moneymaking opportunities over a ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
Mad Day Trader uses a dozen proprietary short-term technical and momentum indicators to generate buy and sell signals. These will be sent to you by text message and email for immediate execution. During normal trading conditions, you should receive three to five alerts a day.
As with our existing service, you will receive ticker symbols, entry and exit points, targets, stop losses, and regular real time updates. At the end of each day, a separate short-term model portfolio will be sent to you and posted on the website.
The new service will generate long and short-selling signals for a range of widely traded exchange traded funds (ETF's). These include stock indexes (SPY), bonds (TLT), (TBT), foreign exchange (FXY), (FXE), (FXA), commodities (CU), (CORN), energy (USO), (UNG), and precious metals (GLD), (SLV). There is also a special focus on the leading hot stocks of the day. This will be followed up with a series of educational webinars that will be an important resource for the serious trader.
The Mad Day Trader service will be provided out of Chicago by my old friend and industry veteran, Jim Parker. Jim is a 40-year veteran of the financial markets and has long made a living as an independent trader in the pits at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. He has worked his way up from a junior floor runner, to advisor to some of the world's largest hedge funds. We are lucky to have him on our team and gain access to his experience, knowledge, and expertise.
I have been following his alerts for the past five years, and his market timing has become an important part of the "unfair advantage" that I provide readers. The time has finally come to offer Mad Day Trader as a stand-alone product.
A trading service with this degree of success and sophistication normally costs $20,000 a year. As a client of The Mad Hedge Fund Trader, you can purchase Mad Day Trader alone for $2,000 per year or $699 per quarter. Or you can buy it as a package together with Global Trading Dispatch, which we call Global Trading Dispatch Pro, for $4,000 per year, a 20% discount to the full retail price. Give yourself the unfair advantage you always wanted and buy the combined package.
As part of the initial launch, I will send out Mad Day Trader free to all current paid subscribers of Global Trading Dispatch until June 21st. That will give you the opportunity to decide if the new service can enhance your trading performance. When the free service expires, we will send you a link to purchase a full subscription. There will be no automatic billing of current subscribers.
Part of the deal is that I want to hear from you on how we can improve Mad Day Trader to make it more user friendly and coherent to better meet your needs. Sometimes, a couple of old warhorses like us forget how much our specialized language is incomprehensible to the outside world. Just send us an email with suggestions to support@madhedgefundtrader.com.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/JJG-5-23-13.jpg457574Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-05-24 09:29:252013-05-24 09:29:25Update on The Mad Day Trader
?You have to be very careful giving up analogue dollars for digital pennies,? said Jeff Zuker, CEO of NBC.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/NBC-Logo.jpg175190Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-05-24 09:22:122013-05-24 09:22:12May 24, 2013 - Quote of the Day
As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen.Read more
00Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-05-23 15:02:172013-05-23 15:02:17Trade Alert - (AAPL) May 23, 2013
Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in London on Monday, July 8, 2013. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period.
I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $249.
I?ll be arriving an hour early and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.
The lunch will be held at a private club on St. James Street, the details of which will be emailed to you with your purchase confirmation.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/Big_Ben_8583a-e1429708732816.jpg388400Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-05-23 09:26:562013-05-23 09:26:56July 8 London Strategy Luncheon
Onshoring, the return of US manufacturing from abroad, is rapidly gathering pace. It is increasingly playing a crucial part in the unfolding American industrial renaissance. It could well develop into the most important new trend on the global economic scene during the early 21st century. It is also paving the way for a return of the roaring twenties to our home shores.
Of course, it is hard to quantify this assumption with hard data. US government statistics are a deep lagging indicator and are unable to keep up with a rapidly changing, interconnected, fluid world. No doubt, they will tell us this epoch making sea change is underway in ten years.
However, is possible to track what a single company is accomplishing. In 1973, General Electric (GE) ran the largest home appliance manufacturing facility in the world. Its Appliance Park in Louisville, Kentucky, employed 23,000 workers packed into six gigantic buildings, each as large as a shopping mall. It was so big, it even earned its own postal zip code (40225).
After that, the offshoring mania kicked in, with the firm motivated by a single factor: hourly wages. You could hire 30 men in China for the cost of one American union worker. The savings were too compelling to pass up, and The Great Hollowing Out of US manufacturing was off to the races.
GE tried to sell the entire operation, but was too late. The 2008 financial crisis decimated the market for Midwest industrial facilities. You could only get the scrap metal value, or three cents on the dollar. By 2011 employment at Appliance Park had plunged to 1,863, and the region?s new ?Rust Belt? sobriquet was well earned.
Then, almost imperceptibly at first, the trend started to reverse. Decades of 20% a year wage increases took the cost of a skilled Chinese worker from $300 a year to $20,000. The 2011 Japanese tsunami, followed by huge floods in Thailand, caused massive disruptions to the international parts supply network. A minor strike by the Longshoreman?s Union at the Port of Oakland in California brought the distribution channel to a grinding halt. Business plans that looked great on an Excel spreadsheet turned out to be not so hot in practice.
It gets worse. When Chinese workers walked across the street to collect bigger pay packages, they often took blue prints, business plans, and proprietary software with them. Six months later, a local competitor would show up with a similar, although inferior, product at half the cost. Suddenly, globalization was not all it was cracked up to be.
In the meantime, the American labor force, reading the Chinese characters on the wall, evolved. Unions were disbanded. Antiquated work rules were tossed. The unions that were left agreed to two tier wage structures that had entry level employees coming in at $13.50 an hour, a fraction of the original rate.
Then management got smarter. By removing the assembly line from the marketplace, companies lost touch with customers. Designers lost contact with the manufacturing process, creating products that could only be built expensively, or not at all. Quality plummeted. Innovation suffered. By bringing manufacturing home, firms not only solved these problems, they were able to build better ones for less money.
China turned out to be farther away than people thought. Having middle management jet lagged up to three months a year proved to be very expensive. It takes six weeks to ship an appliance from the Middle Kingdom to the US if the shipping schedules are perfect.
An American plant can truck product to most US stores within two days. That wasn?t a problem when consumer products saw lives that ran into decades. It is a big deal when rapidly accelerating technological improvements require them to be turned over every three years, as they are today.
The energy picture is undercutting the arithmetic that used to justify offshoring. Oil prices levitating near $100 a barrel are up 400% in 14 years, elevating the cost of production in Asia and shipments to the US. In the US, the fracking boom has let lose a gusher of cheap oil. It has also freed up a few centuries worth of low carbon burning natural gas, giving American manufacturers a further cost advantage.
Better American management techniques are giving US based factories an edge. I saw this up close at the Tesla (TSLA) factory in Fremont, California, where workers have the ability to improve the assembly process daily, and are incented to do so. The place was so clean and quiet, it felt more like a hospital than a factory. By adopting similar techniques, GE, is building the same number of appliances as it did during the 1960?s peak, about 250,000 a year, with one third of the employees.
Using the new thinking, many companies are finding out that offshoring was a big mistake in the first place, and are bringing production home. Some business analysts estimate that up to a quarter of the companies that offshored lost money doing it.
The fact that GE is onshoring is important. It is considered by many to be the best-run industrial company in the United States, and when it leads, many follow. On the heels of the GE move, Whirlpool has relocated its mixer assembly from China to Ohio, and Otis has brought home elevator making from Mexico. Even Wham-O has jumped on board, the maker of Frisbees, and a company that is dear to my heart (I dated the founder?s daughter in high school), moving production from the Middle Kingdom back to Southern California.
If I am right, and onshoring speeds up into the next decade, we may get another opportunity to relive the roaring twenties. By then, a shortage of workers will lead to higher wages, greater consumer spending, and rising standards of living. The price of everything will rocket, including your stocks and homes. GDP growth will surge to 4%-5% a year. Inflation will, at long last, make its long predicted return.
It will be an economy in which Jay Gatsby will feel right at home.
A Trend Reversal?
The Roaring Twenties Are Headed Our Way
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Leonard-DiCaprio-e1415560921439.jpg271400Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-05-23 09:24:552013-05-23 09:24:55The American Onshoring Trend is Accelerating
Much of the recent buying of stocks has been generated by hedge funds panicking to cover shorts. Convinced of the imminent collapse of Europe, the impotence of governments to do anything about it, and slow economic growth at home, many managers were running a maximum short for the umpteenth time, and were forced to cover at a loss. Meet the new dumb money: hedge funds.
When I first started on Wall Street in the seventies, you heard a lot about the ?dumb money.? This was a referral to the low-end retail investors who bought the research, hook-line-and-sinker, loyally subscribed to every IPO, religiously bought every top, and sold every bottom.
Needless to say, such clients didn?t survive very long, and retail stock brokerage evolved into a volume business, endlessly seeking to replace outgoing suckers with new ones. When one asked ?Where are the customers? yachts,? everyone in the industry new the grim answer.
Since the popping of the dot-com boom in 2000, the individual investor has finally started to smarten up. They bailed en masse from equities, seeking to plow their fortunes into real estate, which everyone knew never went down. Since 2007, the exit from equities has accelerated.
I bet the average individual investor is outperforming the average hedge fund in 2013 by a large margin. Look no further than the chart below, which shows and average return by hedge funds, compared to and S&P 500 index gain of 16%.
This takes me back to the Golden Age of hedge funds during the 1980?s. For a start, you could count the number of active funds on your fingers and toes, and we all knew each other. The usual suspects included the owl like Soros, the bombastic Robertson, steely cool Tudor-Jones, the nefarious Bacon, the complicated Steinhart, of course, myself, and a handful of others.
The traditional Wall Street establishment viewed us as outlaws, and believed that if the trades we were doing weren?t illegal, they should be, like short selling. Investigations and audits were a daily fact of life. It wasn?t easy being green. I believe that Steinhart was under investigation during his entire 40 year career, but the Feds never brought a case.
It was all worth it, because in those days, if you did copious research and engaged in enough out of the box thinking, you could bring in enormous profits with almost no risk. I used to call these ?free money? trades. To be taken seriously as a manager by the small community of hedge fund investors you had to earn 40% a year or you weren?t worth the perceived risk. Annual gains of 100% were not unheard of.
Let me give you an example. In 1989, you could buy a leveraged warrant on a Japanese stock near parity, for $100, that gave you the right to own $500 worth of stock. You bought the warrant and sold short the underlying stock. Overnight yen yields then were at 6%, so 500% X 6% = 30% a year, your risk free return.
Most Japanese stock dividends were near zero then, so the cost of borrowing was almost nothing. The position effectively created a high yield synthetic convertible bond. If the stock then fell, you also made big money on your short stock position. This was not a bad portfolio to have in 1990, when the Nikkei stock index plunged from ?39,000 to ?20,000 in three months, and some individual shares dropped by 80%.
Trades like this were possible because only a smaller number of mathematicians and computer geeks, like me, were on the hunt, and collectively, we amounted to no more than a flea on an elephant?s back. Today, there are over 10,000 hedge funds managing $2.5 trillion, accounting for anywhere from 50% to 70% of the daily volume.
Many of the strategies now can only be executed by multimillion-dollar mainframe computers collocated next to the stock exchange floor. Winning or losing trades are often determined by the speed of light. And as the numbers have expanded exponentially from dozens to hundreds of thousands, the quality of the players has gone down dramatically, with copycats and ?wannabees? crowding the field.
The problem is that hedge funds are no longer peripheral to the market. They are the market, and therein lies the headache. How are you supposed to outperform the market when it means beating yourself? As a result, hedge fund managers have replaced the individual as the new ?dumb money?, buying tops and selling bottoms, only to cover at a loss, as we witnessed today.
When markets disintegrate into a few big hedge funds slugging it out against each other, no one makes any money. I saw this happen in Tokyo in the 1990?s, when hedge funds took over the bulk of trading. Volumes shrank to a shadow of their former selves.
How does this end? We have already seen the outcome; that investors flee markets run by hedge funds and migrate to those where they have less of an impact. That explains the meteoric rise of trading volumes of other assets classes, like bonds and foreign exchange.
How About 2% and 20%?
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Carrey-Daniels-Dumb-Dumber.jpg322431Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-05-23 09:20:302013-05-23 09:20:30Hedge Funds: The New Dumb Money
?Outsourcing is quickly becoming mostly outdated as a business model,? said GE CEO, Jeffrey Immelt.
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