2014 Trade Alert Review

When is the Mad Hedge Fund Trader a genius, and when is he a complete moron?

That is the question readers have to ask themselves whenever their smart phones ping, and a new Trade Alert appears on their screens.

I have to confess that I wonder myself sometimes.

So I thought I would run my 2014 numbers to find out when I was a hero, and when I was a goat.

The good news is that I was a hero most of the time, and a goat only occasionally. Here is the cumulative profit and loss for the 75 Trade Alerts that I closed during calendar 2014, listed by asset class.

Profit by Asset Class

Foreign Exchange 15.12%
Equities 12.52%
Fixed Income 7.28%
Energy 1.4%
Volatility -1.68%

Total 37.64%

Foreign exchange trading was my big winner for 2014, accounting for nearly half of my profits. My most successful trade of the year was in my short position in the Euro (FXE), (EUO).

I piled on a double position at the end of July, just as it became apparent that the beleaguered European currency was about to break out of a multi month sideway move into a pronounced new downtrend.

I then kept rolling the strikes down every month. Those who bought the short Euro 2X ETF (EUO) made even more.

The fundamentals for the Euro were bad and steadily worsening. It helped that I was there for two months during the summer and could clearly see how grotesquely overvalued the currency was. $20 for a cappuccino? Mama mia!

Nothing beats on the ground, first hand research.

Stocks generated another third of my profits last year and also accounted for my largest number of Trade Alerts.

I correctly identified technology and biotech as the lead sectors for the year, weaving in and out of Apple (AAPL) and Gilead Sciences (GILD) on many occasions. I also nailed the recovery of the US auto industry (GM), (F).

I safely stayed away from the energy sector until the very end of the year, when oil hit the $50 handle. I also prudently avoided commodities like the plague.

Unfortunately, I was wrong on the bond market for the entire year. That didn?t stop me from making money on the short side on price spikes, with fixed income chipping a healthy 7.28% into the kitty.

It was only at the end of the year, when the prices accelerated their northward trend that they started to cost me money. My saving grace was that I kept positions small throughout, doubling up on a single occasion and then coming right back out.

My one trade in the energy sector for the year was on the short side, in natural gas (UNG), selling the simple molecule at the $5.50 level. With gas now plumbing the depths at $2.90, I should have followed up with more Trade Alerts. But hey, a 1.4% gain is better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick.

In which asset class was I wrong every single time? Both of the volatility (VIX) trades I did in 2014 lost money, for a total of -1.68%. I got caught in one of many downdrafts that saw volatility hugging the floor for most of the year, giving it to me in the shorts with the (VXX).

All in all, it was a pretty good year.

What was my best trade of 2014? I made 2.75% with a short position in the S&P 500 in July, during one of the market?s periodic 5% corrections.

And my worst trade of 2014? I got hit with a 6.63% speeding ticket with a long position in the same index. But I lived to fight another day.

After a rocky start, 2015 promises to be another great year. That is, provided you ignore my advice on volatility.

FXE 12-31-14

SPY 12-31-14

TLT 12-31-14

WTIC 12-31-14

VIX 12-31-14

Here is a complete list of every trade I closed last year, sorted by asset class, from best to worse.

Date

Position

Asset Class

Long/short

?

?

?

?

?

?

7/25/14

(SPY) 8/$202.50 – $202.50 put spread

equities

long

?

?

?

?

?

2.75%

10/16/14

(GILD) 11/$80-$85 call spread

equities

long

?

?

?

?

?

2.57%

5/19/14

(TLT) 7/$116-$119 put spread

fixed income

long

?

?

?

?

?

2.48%

4/4/14

(IWM) 8/$113 puts

equities

long

?

?

?

?

?

2.38%

7/10/14

(AAPL) 8/$85-$90 call spread

equities

long

?

?

?

?

?

2.30%

2/3/14

(TLT) 6/$106 puts

equities

long

?

?

?

?

?

2.27%

9/19/14

(IWM) 11/$117-$120 put spread

equities

long

?

?

?

?

?

2.26%

10/7/14

(FXE) 11/$127-$129 put spread

foreign exchange

long

?

?

?

?

?

2.22%

9/26/14

(IWM) 11/$116-$119 put spread

equities

long

?

?

?

?

?

2.21%

4/17/14

(TLT) 5/$114-$117 put spread

fixed income

long

?

?

?

?

?

2.10%

8/7/14

(FXE) 9/$133-$135 put spread

foreign exchange

long

?

?

?

?

?

2.07%

10/2/14

(BAC) 11/$15-$16 call spread

equities

long

?

?

?

?

?

2.04%

4/9/14

(SPY) 5/$191-$194 put spread

equities

long

?

?

?

?

?

2.02%

10/15/14

(DAL) 11/$25-$27 call spread

equities

long

?

?

?

?

?

1.89%

9/25/14

(FXE) 11/$128-$130 put spread

foreign exchange

long

?

?

?

?

?

1.86%

6/6/14

(JPM) 7/$52.50-$55.00 call spread

equities

long

?

?

?

?

?

1.81%

4/4/14

(SPY) 5/$193-$196 put spread

equities

long

?

?

?

?

?

1.81%

3/14/14

(TLT) 4/$111-$114 put spread

fixed income

long

?

?

?

?

?

1.68%

10/17/14

(AAPL) 11/$87.50-$92.50 call spread

equities

long

?

?

?

?

?

1.56%

10/15/14

(SPY) 11/$168-$173 call spread

equities

long

?

?

?

?

?

1.51%

7/3/14

(FXE) 8/$138 put spread

foreign exchange

long

?

?

?

?

?

1.51%

10/9/14

(FXE) 11/$128-$130 put spread

foreign exchange

long

?

?

?

?

?

1.48%

9/19/14

(FXE) 10/$128-$130 put spread

foreign exchange

long

?

?

?

?

?

1.45%

10/22/14

(SPY) 11/$179-$183 call spread

equities

long

?

?

?

?

?

1.44%

5/29/14

(TLT) 7/$118-$121 put spread

fixed income

long

?

?

?

?

?

1.44%

2/24/14

(UNG) 7/$26 puts

energy

long

?

?

?

?

?

1.40%

2/24/14

(BAC) 3/$15-$16 call spread

equities

long

?

?

?

?

?

1.39%

6/23/14

(SPY) 7/$202 put spread

equities

long

?

?

?

?

?

1.37%

9/29/14

(SPY) 10/$202-$205 Put spread

equities

long

?

?

?

?

?

1.29%

5/20/14

(AAPL) 7/$540 $570 call spread

equities

long

?

?

?

?

?

1.22%

9/26/14

(SPY) 10/$202-$205 Put spread

equities

long

?

?

?

?

?

1.22%

5/22/14

(GOOGL) 7/$480-$520 call spread

equities

long

?

?

?

?

?

1.16%

5/19/14

(FXY) 7/$98-$101 put spread

foreign exchange

long

?

?

?

?

?

1.14%

1/15/14

(T) 2/$35-$37 put spread

equities

long

?

?

?

?

?

1.08%

3/3/14

(TLT) 3/$111-$114 put spread

fixed income

long

?

?

?

?

?

1.07%

1/28/14

(AAPL) 2/$460-$490 call spread

equities

long

?

?

?

?

?

1.06%

4/24/14

(SPY) 5/$192-$195 put spread

equities

long

?

?

?

?

?

1.05%

6/6/14

(CAT) 7/$97.50-$100 call spread

equities

long

?

?

?

?

?

1.04%

7/23/14

(FXE) 8/$134-$136 put spread

foreign exchange

long

?

?

?

?

?

0.99%

8/18/14

(FXE) 9/$133-$135 put spread

foreign exchange

long

?

?

?

?

?

0.94%

11/4/14

(BAC) 12/$15-$16 call spread

equities

long

?

?

?

?

?

0.88%

4/9/14

(SPY) 6/$193-$196 put spread

equities

long

?

?

?

?

?

0.88%

7/25/14

(SPY) 8/$202.50 -205 put spread

equities

long

?

?

?

?

?

0.88%

6/6/14

(MSFT) 7/$38-$40 call spread

equities

long

?

?

?

?

?

0.87%

10/23/14

(FXY) 11/$92-$95 puts spread

foreign exchange

long

?

?

?

?

?

0.86%

7/23/14

(TLT) 8/$117-$120 put spread

fixed income

long

?

?

?

?

?

0.81%

3/5/14

(DAL) 4/$30-$32 Call spread

equities

long

?

?

?

?

?

0.76%

4/10/14

(VXX) long volatility ETN

equities

long

?

?

?

?

?

0.76%

1/30/14

(UNG) 7/$23 puts

equities

long

?

?

?

?

?

0.66%

4/1/14

(FXY) 5/$96-$99 put spread

foreign currency

long

?

?

?

?

?

0.60%

1/15/14

(TLT) 2/$108-$111 put spread

equities

long

?

?

?

?

?

0.47%

3/6/14

(EBAY) 4/$52.50- $55 call spread

equities

long

?

?

?

?

?

0.24%

10/14/14

(TBT) short Treasury Bond ETF

fixed income

long

?

?

?

?

?

0.22%

3/28/14

(VXX) long volatility ETN

equities

long

?

?

?

?

?

0.20%

7/17/14

(TBT) short Treasury Bond ETF

fixed income

long

?

?

?

?

?

0.08%

3/26/14

(VXX) long volatility ETN

equities

long

?

?

?

?

?

0.06%

7/8/14

(TLT) 8/$115-$118 put spread

fixed income

long

?

?

?

?

?

-0.18%

4/28/14

(SPY) 5/$189-$192 put spread

equities

long

?

?

?

?

?

-0.45%

3/5/14

(GE) 4/$24-$25 call spread

equities

long

?

?

?

?

?

-0.73%

4/28/14

(VXX) long volatility ETN

volatility

long

?

?

?

?

?

-0.81%

4/24/14

(TLT) 5/$113-$116 put spread

fixed income

long

?

?

?

?

?

-0.87%

4/28/14

(VXX) long volatility ETN

volatility

long

?

?

?

?

?

-0.87%

6/6/14

(IBM) 7/$180-$185 call spread

equities

long

?

?

?

?

?

-1.27%

9/30/14

(SPY) 11/$185-$190 call spread

equities

long

?

?

?

?

?

-1.51%

10/9/14

(TLT) 11/$122-$125 put spread

fixed income

long

?

?

?

?

?

-1.55%

9/24/14

(TSLA) 11/$200 call spread

equities

long

?

?

?

?

?

-1.62%

2/27/14

(SPY) 3/$189-$192 put spread

equities

long

?

?

?

?

?

-1.67%

3/6/14

(BAC) 4/$16 calls

equities

long

?

?

?

?

?

-2.01%

10/14/14

(SPY) 10/$180-$184 call spread

equities

short

?

?

?

?

?

-2.13%

11/14/14

(BABA) 12/$100-$105 call spread

equities

short

?

?

?

?

?

-2.38%

10/20/14

(SPY) 11/$197-$202 call spread

equities

short

?

?

?

?

?

-2.72%

7/3/14

(GM) 8/$33-$35 call spread

equities

long

?

?

?

?

?

-2.91%

3/7/14

(GM) 4/$34-$36 call spread

equities

long

?

?

?

?

?

-2.96%

11/25/14

(SCTY) 12/47.50-$52.50 call spread

equities

long

?

?

?

?

?

-3.63%

10/20/14

(SPY) 11/$197-$202 call spread

equities

short

?

?

?

?

?

-4.22%

4/14/14

(SPY) 5/$188-$191 put spread

equities

long

?

?

?

?

?

-6.63%

 

John Thomas - BeachWhat a Year!