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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Party is Just Getting Started With the Japanese Yen

Diary, Free Research, Newsletter

I?m sorry, but I just don?t believe that we will see a weak dollar potentially going into the first interest rate rise in nine years.

If my friend, Janet, pulls the trigger, then the greenback will become the only currency in the world that is raising rates. Currencies just don?t decline in those circumstances.

In that case, we want to go out and sell short the weakest link in the currency milieu, and that is the Japanese yen.

Even if Janet doesn?t move in September, the prospect will hang over then yen like a Damocles sword.

In addition, the yen is bumping up key chart resistance around ?125. A decisive breakout would clear the way towards ?130, my yearend target for the beleaguered Japanese currency.

A short in the yen is a safe, low risk trade right here in a world gone crazy.

?Oh, how I despise the yen, let me count the ways.?

I?m sure Shakespeare would have come up with a line of iambic pentameter similar to this if he were a foreign exchange trader. I firmly believe that a short position in the yen should be at the core of any hedged portfolio for the next decade.

To remind you why you hate the currency of the land of the rising sun, I?ll refresh your memory with this short list:

* With the world?s structurally weakest major economy, Japan is certain to be the last country to raise interest rates. Interest rate differentials are the greatest driver of foreign exchange rates.
* This is inciting big hedge funds to borrow yen and sell it to finance longs in every other corner of the financial markets.
* Japan has the world?s worst demographic outlook that assures its problems will only get worse. They?re not making enough Japanese any more.
* The sovereign debt crisis in Europe is prompting investors to scan the horizon for the next troubled country. With gross debt well over a nosebleed 280% of GDP, or 140% when you net out inter agency crossholdings, Japan is at the top of the list.
* The Japanese long bond market, with a yield of only 0.36%, is a disaster waiting to happen.
* You have two willing co-conspirators in this trade, the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan, who will move Mount Fuji if they must to get the yen down and bail out the country?s beleaguered exporters.

When the big turn inevitably comes, we?re going to ?130 then ?150, then ?180. That works out to a price of $200 for the (YCS), which last traded at $94.93. But it might take a few years to get there.

If you think this is extreme, let me remind you that when I first went to Japan in the early seventies, the yen was trading at ?305, and had just been revalued from the Peace Treaty Dodge line rate of ?360.

To me the ?125 I see on my screen today is unbelievable. That would then give you a neat 17-year double top.

Japanese Lady-SadIt?s All Over For the Yen

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Japanese-Lady-Sad-e1400531413320.jpg 324 319 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-08-14 01:03:432015-08-14 01:03:43The Party is Just Getting Started With the Japanese Yen
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Follow Up to Trade Alert - (FXY) August 13, 2015

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Japanese-Lady-Sad-e1400531413320.jpg 324 319 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-08-13 12:54:302015-08-13 12:54:30Follow Up to Trade Alert - (FXY) August 13, 2015
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (TLT) August 13, 2015

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more

0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-08-13 12:28:272015-08-13 12:28:27Trade Alert - (TLT) August 13, 2015
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

August 13, 2015 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-08-13 09:56:072015-08-13 09:56:07August 13, 2015 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (FXY) August 13, 2015

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/slider-05-trader-alert.jpg 316 600 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-08-13 09:53:242015-08-13 09:53:24Trade Alert - (FXY) August 13, 2015
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

August 13, 2015

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
August 13, 2015
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(CHINA?S FIRECRACKER SURPRISE),
($SSEC), (FXI), (CYB), (EWH),
(ALL I WANT TO DO IS RETIRE),
(THE TWELVE DAY YEAR)

Shanghai Stock Exchange Compostite Index ($SSEC)
iShares Trust - iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI)
WisdomTree Trust - WisdomTree Chinese Yuan Strategy Fund (CYB)
iShares, Inc. - iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-08-13 01:06:282015-08-13 01:06:28August 13, 2015
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

China?s Firecracker Surprise

Diary, Newsletter, Research

Don?t waste your time trying to analyze financial markets right now.

There is only one ticker symbol you need to know about, that for the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index, the ($SSEC).

When Shanghai goes up, the rest of the world?s risk assets happily join the party. When it drops, ?RISK OFF? fever goes pandemic.

China upped the ante this week when it allowed its currency, the Yuan, or the renminbi as it is known locally (the people?s currency), to float freely for the first time in 25 years. That produced a two-day devaluation of 3.6%.

In the very long history of currency debasements, this one was barely a whimper.

Ancient Sumerians used to shave the edges off of gold and silver coins 5,000 years ago.

When President Nixon took the US off of the gold standard in 1973, the dollar eventually fell 75% against the European currencies.

More recently, the Euro has given up 37% against the greenback, moving from a position of grotesque over valuation to dealing with the Greek credit crisis.

So Beijing?s move this week barely tips the needle in the official history of devaluations.

What it does do is create a giant psychological effect, and therein lies the problem.

Since June, the Mandarins in China have been pulling out all the stops to halt a free fall in the country?s share prices.

It has cut interest rates and relaxed reserve requirements. It banned high frequency trading, blaming the collapse on foreign short sellers (sound familiar?). It has even made stock selling illegal in roughly 94% of the country?s free float.

Still, the bears remain emboldened by their recent success.

By cutting the value of the Yuan, the government is providing a modest boost to the economy. A cheaper currency means less expensive exports and more of them, thus, making local businesses more profitable and creating jobs.

But not by much.

There are not a lot of products that live or die on a 3.6% margin. America has not just lost a chunk of its own exports from the additional competition, contrary to the claims of the TV networks and bogus newsletters with which I compete.

But by taking the first such move to undercut the Yuan in 25 years, it is showing the world how serious a problem is the stock crash.

Will the stock collapse feed into the main economy? Is 10% of the world?s GDP going into a Great Recession? Yikes!

SELL, SELL!

There are a few other problems with the Chinese firecracker.

It violates a secret agreement with the US government, made a decade ago, to allow a steady 3-4% a year appreciation of the Yuan against the dollar.

This was designed to slowly eliminate the artificial under valuation of the Yuan that gave the Middle Kingdom an unfair export advantage. The arrangement was responsible for the 20% rise of the Yuan since 2009.

(Sorry Donald, but you?re holding the chart upside down. Yes, I know, stock charts can be pesky things).

Reneging on the deal is ruffling feathers at the US Treasury in Washington. But it won?t amount to more than that, as long as it is temporary.

Which it will be.

China still has a massive trade surplus with the United States. In 2014, it totaled a staggering $343 billion. It maintained that heady pace, totaling $171 billion during the first half of 2015.

There are an awful lot of Chinese clothes, electronics, and toys sitting on the shelves of American retailers.

Its imports are falling, thanks to the collapse of the price of oil and other bulk commodities.

The natural state of the currency of any country running such huge surpluses is for it to rise in value. That will continue in China?s case for the foreseeable future.

Once the waters settle in the stock market, you can count on the Yuan to regain its upward path.

However, this isn?t going to happen in a day. It could be weeks or months until order returns to Chinese equity markets. Until then, expect some scary days there and here as well.

Compound these problems with the uncertainty over the Federal Reserve?s decision on interest rates in September and slower than expected US growth.

It certainly leaves traders and investors alike, with a full plate of issues to consider.

As if we didn?t have enough to worry about.

For some background on my 45 year coverage of the Middle Kingdom, please click here for my 2011 SPECIAL CHINA ISSUE.

CYB 8-12-15

SSEC 8-12-15

FXI 8-12-15

EWH 8-12-15

China - FirecrackerSurprise!

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/China-Firecracker-e1439470828256.jpg 272 400 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-08-13 01:05:262015-08-13 01:05:26China?s Firecracker Surprise
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (SPY) August 12, 2015

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more

0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-08-12 09:55:082015-08-12 09:55:08Trade Alert - (SPY) August 12, 2015
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

August 12, 2015 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-08-12 09:20:232015-08-12 09:20:23August 12, 2015 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

August 12, 2015

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
August 12, 2015
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(A NOTE ON NEXT WEEK?S OPTIONS EXPIRATIONS)
(TESTIMONIAL)

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-08-12 01:05:382015-08-12 01:05:38August 12, 2015
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Legal Disclaimer

There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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