Global Market Comments
November 5, 2015
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHY DOCTORS MAKE TERRIBLE TRADERS)
(KEEP AMERICAN EXPRESS ON YOUR SHORT LIST),
(AXP), (V)
American Express Company (AXP)
Visa Inc. (V)
Global Market Comments
November 5, 2015
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHY DOCTORS MAKE TERRIBLE TRADERS)
(KEEP AMERICAN EXPRESS ON YOUR SHORT LIST),
(AXP), (V)
American Express Company (AXP)
Visa Inc. (V)
I remember that the highlight of my 1968 trip to Europe was always my visit to the nearest American Express (AXP) office to pick up my mail.
In those pre Internet and email days, it was the only way that a fresh faced 16 year old could stay in touch with a hand wringing family while traveling around the world.
They just wrote ?John Thomas, c/o American Express, Paris, France,? and the letters never failed to get through to me.
It was also a great place to meet other vagabonding Americans my age--of the female persuasion. At least they spoke English. Almost.
That was a very long time ago.
So I got to know well the American Express locations off the Spanish Steps in Rome, Saint Mark?s Square in Venice, Berlin?s Kurfurstendamm, and the Champs-Elysees in Paris.
I have a feeling that American Express is about to give me a warm and fuzzy feeling once again.
After being taken out to the woodshed and getting beaten senseless in the wake of getting fired by Costco, one of the biggest customers, the shares appear poised for a comeback.
We have a rare occasion where the highest quality stock in a sector with the best business model is selling cheaper than its cohorts for a series of temporary reasons.
Take a look at the charts for (AXP) and Visa (V) below, and one of the greatest pairs trades of all time may be setting up, whereby you want to buy for the former and sell short the latter against it.
At the very least, you should be taking your monster profits on Visa and rolling the money into American Express.
Since its inception in 1958, that flashy green (or platinum) piece of plastic has long been a status symbol, and owned the premium end of the credit card market.
As a result, it earns more fees and extends fewer loans than its competitors. The loans it does have enjoy a far lower default rate. There are now 107 million Amex cards in circulation, compared to only 55 million in 2001. Thank you 1%!
American Express cardholders run balances three times larger than the average Master Card holder. That?s what happens when you buy a Ferrari on your Amex card, as I once did (to get the frequent flier points).
Merchants pay very high fees, usually 5% of the purchase. That?s why many shun the card. (AXP) is currently running a credit card balance of $940 billion, versus $3.1 trillion for Visa (V).
Fees accounted for an impressive 57% of the company?s revenues, a far higher ratio than other credit card companies. Better yet, (AXP)?s fees are rising, while those of others are falling. Interest on balances brings in 15% and cardholder fees 8%.
(AXP) is expected to earn $5.8 billion in net income on $33.9 billion in revenues this year, up 9.4%. With the US economy recovering, growing by 2.6% this year and 3.0% plus in 2015, the company is in the sweet spot for capturing more profits.
Morgan Stanley estimates that cardholder spending grows at 4.5 times the US GDP growth rate. That should cause (AXP)?s earnings to double, and the stock as well. An extra tailwind will be the company?s new strategy of moving down market to expand market share.
Despite all this good news, (AXP) shares are selling at a 13.4X multiple, a discount to its industry (21X), and the main market (18X). An ambitious share buy back program should put a floor under the stock.
Part of the discount can be explained by a Justice Department suit claiming that the company overcharges merchants. Amex correctly argues that, as the smallest of the major credit card companies, it has nowhere near monopoly pricing power.
It will be interesting to see how aggressively the government pursues its action, now that attorney general Eric Holder, has moved on to retirement.
You all know by now that I think financials are the place to be for years going forward because of imminently rising interest rates. But I?ll hold back on pulling the trigger on single name long side stocks plays until the carnage in the markets abate.
When I?m ready to shoot out a Trade Alert, you?ll be the first to know.
When I do, don't even think about putting it on your credit card.
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more
As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen. Read more
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more
Global Market Comments
November 4, 2015
Fiat Lux
SPECIAL CAR ISSUE
Featured Trade:
(WHAT I HEARD AT DINNER LAST NIGHT),
(GM), (F), (TM), (TSLA)
General Motors Company (GM)
Ford Motor Co. (F)
Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)
Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA)
It was the kind of dinner invitation I couldn?t turn down. What I learned was amazing.
I usually prefer to spend my evenings at home catching up on my research, calling customers, and plotting my next great Trade Alert.
So it takes a lot to get me out of my cozy digs, especially during an evening of rare torrential downpours.
Attending would be senior executives from Tesla (TSLA), General Motors (GM), and engineering professor from the University of California at Berkeley, and the California Air Resources Board.
With US car production blasting through 18 million annual units this week, a new all time high, I thought the topic was particularly timely. That, by the way, has been my target all year.
The dinner was hosted by a retired billionaire from Microsoft at the top of the Mark Hopkins Hotel in San Francisco.
The topic for discussion would be the very long-term future of the car industry. I get invited to these things because the guests want to know how their views would fit in within a long term global geopolitical/economic context, my own particular specialty.
I didn?t want to cramp anyone?s style, so I kept my notebook under the table and scribbled away blindly, and illegibly. There?s no particular story line here. I?ll just give you my random thoughts.
(GM) launched its second generation Chevy Volt last month, and the customer response has been fantastic. The company is building a new $400 million battery plant on the East Coast to help meet demand.
Some 60% of the buyers are coming from other auto makers. It is fast becoming the new face of Chevy, like the Corvette Stingray and Camaro of years past.
The future is in a 200-mile range $30,000 car, and the Volt is that car. Customers want to get away from oil and will only buy the products that do that, be they hybrids or all electric.
He also mentioned that GM is launching an electric bike next year, which is already widespread in Europe. Not a big needle mover there.
The Tesla guy then proceeded to jump all over him, saying the Volt was ?green washing? as usual, since it represents only a tiny fraction of the company?s sales. GM had a vested interest in promoting the internal combustion engine, in which it had made a century long investment. Its real focus can be seen in the giant new Suburban factory it was now building in Texas.
Mr. Tesla had driven from the south Bay with his S-1 entirely on autopilot. The hardware has already been pre installed in every S-1 produced since 2014, and all that is needed to make them self driving is to execute a wireless overnight software upgrade. Currently, only Tesla executives are beta testing the revolutionary autonomous system.
What is truly amazing is that each car will have a learning program unique to the vehicle. If it misses a hard turn the first time, it will remember that turn and then make it perfectly every time from then on.
The Tesla person said that once the new Gigafactory comes online in 2016, the company will be on schedule for a tenfold ramp up in car production by 2020.
The $35,000 Tesla 3 that will make this possible will be unveiled in coming months, which will be offered in two wheel and four wheel drive variations. That will take them from 50,000 units a year to 500,000.
I asked him if this means that if your wife suspects you of cheating, will your Tesla rat you out. He answered, ?Only if she is a coder.?
Then I wondered what would stop Tesla from selling your driving habits to marketers, who would then make special offers from stores you prefer. A previous Tesla experiment landed me a pair of Seven for All Mankind designer jeans for half off.
Tesla outsold every other luxury car of its class during the first half of 2015, including the Mercedes S class, the BMW Series 7, and the Audi 8. Among the US car industry, only Ford and Tesla have never filed for bankruptcy. Tesla is the first new car manufacturer to succeed since Chrysler made its debut in 1928.
I asked about the S-1 maximum single charge range achieved by a driver. An enthusiast in Norway managed to take one 800 miles on a flat track with no wind and perfect conditions. Wow! My drive from Lake Tahoe record of 400 miles doesn?t come close.
I also enquired about the Cambridge University battery breakthrough (click here for ?Battery Breakthrough Promises Big Dividends?).
He said he was aware of it, but that its takes a long time to get a technology from the bench to the marketplace. Just with their own in-house tinkering, Tesla is boosting battery ranges by 3-5% a year. The current S-1 gets a 290-mile range, compared to my three-year-old 255-mile range.
The Berkeley professor made some interesting observations about Millennials. He said that while 75% of baby boomers got drivers licenses at 16, and 70% of Generation Xer?s did so by then, only 55% of Millennials took to the road at that age. The rule of thumb for anything regarding Millennials is that they do everything late.
The gentleman from the Air Resources Board brought out some interesting facts. More than 80% of all cancer causing chemicals entering the atmosphere come from diesel engines, so a major effort will be made to cut back emissions from commercial trucks. Look for the electric fleet coming to a neighborhood near your. Goodbye Volkswagen!
Workplace charging of employee cars will be the next big growth area for charging stations.
Half of all greenhouse gases derive from the burning of oil. The biggest savings in greenhouse gas emissions will come from a clampdown on the refining industry. Think Koch Brothers.
I was amazed at his commitment to meet California?s goal of obtaining 50% of its energy from alternative sources by 2030. The oil industry, managed to exempt gasoline from the legislation, SB 350. But Governor Jerry Brown put it back in through an executive order.
The state is paying for the initial build out of hydrogen refueling stations for the new $57,500 Toyota Mirai. A single tank that will take the fuel cell vehicle 312 miles.
The state is making major investments in biofuel, planning to obtain 10% of the 50% target from this source.
During a slow moment, I asked a bleach blond trophy girlfriend sitting next to me of her interest in electric cars, expecting the worst. To my surprise, she said that last summer, she drove an electric bike from New York to Los Angeles, towing a trailer with a solar panel cut in half to provide power.
The southern route avoided the high mountain ranges. I noticed she seemed unusually tanned, and it wasn?t from a can.
I was humbled. For once, I knew less about electric cars than anyone else in the room.
After the dinner, I went up to the Tesla executive and told him ?Job well done.? I owned one of the oldest S-1?s, number 125 off the assembly line, and the clock had just turned 40,000, with no major problems.
I even tested their safety claims after a crash with a GM Silverado driven by a texting soccer mom (click here for ?16 Facts and 6 Big Surprises I learned Tearing Apart My Tesla S-1? ).
Thank you Tesla! You saved my life!
Now, if only the stock will do the same! (click here for ?About That Tesla Recommendation? ).
As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more
As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more
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