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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Why I Doubled My Shorts Yesterday

Diary, Newsletter

I did not buy the rally in stocks this week for two seconds.

Once the S&P 500 (SPY) bounced off of the $190 level the first time, it was only a question of how soon to sell again. When I said ?Sell every rally in stocks this year,? I wasn?t kidding.

As it turns out, I caught the absolutely top tick in the (SPY) at $195.

That?s where I quickly bought the (SPY) February $202-$207 vertical bear put debit spread. Within hours, the index cratered an awesome $70 handles, and I was already looking at 70% of the maximum potential profit.

The great luxury of the S&P 500 SPDR?s (SPY) February, 2016 $202-$207 in-the-money vertical bear put spread is that it allows you to cash in on continued extremely elevated levels of the Volatility Index (VIX).

This is why the potential return is so high for a front month options spread already 7 handles, and now 12 handles in-the-money.

In the meantime, I continued to run big shorts in the (SPY) with my February 187 and $190 puts.

This was on the heels of cutting by half my (XIV) position at cost, and taking profits on my (SPY) January $182-$187 vertical bull call debit spread during the rally.

Since yesterday, I have cut the net exposure of my sizeable trading book from 40% to 0%. This is how you do it.

My lack of faith in this market can be measured by the bucket load.

I believe that oil (USO) hasn?t bottomed yet.

All we are seeing here is a round of natural short covering you would expect as the price bounces off the big round number of $30, something which computer driven algorithms love to do.

There are many more visits to the $20 handle for oil to come. Brent is already there.

If you have some magical insight into the price of oil, better than the entire industry combined, and are convinced that Texas tea bottomed yesterday, then you shouldn?t touch the S&P 500 SPDR?s (SPY) February, 2016 $202-$207 in-the-money vertical bear put spread. In that unlikely scenario, stocks rocket from here.

Then there?s China (FXI), whose continued turmoil will bring further US stock losses. I assure you, not even the Chinese know what?s going on in China. They are more like the unfortunate deer that is frozen in the headlights.

If the stock markets of the Middle Kingdom were either up or down 10% tomorrow, I wouldn?t be surprised.

I?m quite happy with the performance of the Trade Alert service so far in 2016.

Here we are only 8 trading days into the New Year and many traders have already blown up, including quite a few trade mentoring newsletters. We should be hauling in some big numbers in January and February.

This is how you trade a crash. Watch and learn. The opportunities are legion.

SPY 1-13-16

VIX 1-13-16

John Thomas-breakfast

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/John-Thomas-breakfast.jpg 364 490 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-01-14 01:07:352016-01-14 01:07:35Why I Doubled My Shorts Yesterday
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

How to Trade the Friday Options Expiration

Diary, Newsletter

We currently have two options positions that are deep in the money, and I just want to explain to the newbies how to best maximize their profits going into tomorrow?s January options expiration.

These comprise:

The S&P 500 SPDR?s (SPY) January $185-$190 in-the-money vertical bull call put spread with a cost of $4.58

The IShares Barclay?s 20 Year+ Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) January $125-$128 in-the-money vertical bear put spread with a cost of $2.70.

Here?s the easy part:

As long as the (SPY) closes at $190 or above at the close, the position will expire worth $5.00 and you will achieve the maximum possible profit. The nine-day gain on the trade will be 9.2%.

In addition, as long as the (TLT) closes at $125 or below at the close, the position will expire worth $3.00 and you will achieve the maximum possible profit here as well. The seven-day profit will be 11.1%.

Since the bond market closes at 3:00 PM EST on Friday, don?t expect much price movement after that.

Better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick, as they say, especially in these difficult trading conditions.

In this case, the expiration is very simple. You take your left hand, grab your right wrist, pull it behind your neck and pat yourself on the back for a job well done.

Your only problem now is to figure out how to spend your winnings.

Your broker (are they still called that?) will automatically use the long (SPY) call to cover the short (SPY) call, and the long (TLT) put to cover the short (TLT) put, entirely cancelling out the positions.

The profit will be credited to your account on the following Monday, and the margin freed up.

If doesn?t, get on the blower immediately, because broker computers sometimes make mistakes, and they will always try to blame you first.

If an unforeseen event causes the (SPY) to collapse to the downside before the Friday close, such as if oil decides to crater once more, then things start to get complicated.

If the (SPY) expires slightly out-of-the-money, like at $189.90, the position can become a headache.

On the close, your short put position expires worthless, but your long put position is converted into a large, leveraged outright naked long position in the (SPY) with a cost of $185.58.

This position you do not want on pain of death, as the potential risk is huge and unlimited, and your broker probably would not allow it unless you wired in a ton of new margin immediately. It is more likely that they will execute a forced liquidation of your account.

This is to be avoided at all cost. It is not what moneymaking is all about.

Professionals caught in this circumstance then sell short a number of shares of (SPY) on expiration day equal to the short position they inherit with the expiring $185 call to hedge out their risk.

Then the long (SPY) position in the $185 calls is cancelled out by the short (SPY) position in the shares, and on Monday both disappear from their statement.

To minimize risk, traders attempt to sell these shares right at the close. As you have thousands of people attempting to do this at the same time, price action on expiration closes can be wild.

So for individuals, I would recommend just selling the January $185-$190 vertical call debit spread outright in the market if it looks like this situation may develop and the (SPY) is going to close very close to the $190 strike.

Keep in mind, also, that the liquidity in the options market completely disappears, and the spreads widen, when a security has only hours, or minutes until expiration. No one wants to be left holding the bag.

This is known in the trade as the ?expiration risk.?

Don?t worry if you lose money on this one position. Your loss will be more than offset by profits in your February $190 puts and February 187 puts which you independently bought last Friday and Monday. That will give you a generous overall profit.

The logic is the same if the (TLT) looks like it is going to close over $125 tomorrow.

One way or the other, I?m sure you?ll do OK, as long as I am watching my screens like a hawk, which I will be. If I think any action is required on your part, I will send out the Trade Alert in seconds.

One way or the other, you will make money on these trades.

Well done, and on to the next trade.

SPY 1-13-16

TLT 1-13-16

Pat on the back

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Pat-on-the-back-e1424375419249.jpg 259 400 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-01-14 01:06:412016-01-14 01:06:41How to Trade the Friday Options Expiration
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 14, 2016 - Quote of the day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

?This is not a good time to own stocks? said my friend and hedge fund legend, David Tepper, of hedge fund Appaloosa Management.

John Thomas - David Tepper

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/John-Thomas-David-Tepper.jpg 294 373 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-01-14 01:05:572016-01-14 01:05:57January 14, 2016 - Quote of the day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Follow Up to Trade Alert - (SPY) January 13, 2016

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Burning-Fire-e1452700892864.jpg 271 400 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-01-13 11:03:462016-01-13 11:03:46Follow Up to Trade Alert - (SPY) January 13, 2016
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (SPY) January 13, 2016

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more

0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-01-13 10:01:182016-01-13 10:01:18Trade Alert - (SPY) January 13, 2016
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 13, 2016 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-01-13 09:17:532016-01-13 09:17:53January 13, 2016 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 13, 2016

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
January 13, 2016
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THE BLACK SWAN SOLUTION TO OUR ENERGY PROBLEMS),
(USO), (TSLA), (GE),
(THE AMERICAN ONSHORING TREND IS ACCELERATING),
(GE), (TSLA),
(TESTIMONIAL)

United States Oil (USO)
Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA)
General Electric Company (GE)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-01-13 01:09:522016-01-13 01:09:52January 13, 2016
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The ?Black Swan? Solution to Our Energy Problems

Diary, Newsletter

I firmly believe that simple solutions to our energy problems are in the process of coming out of the blue, and are something no one is thinking about now.

Add up the contributions of many small improvements, and the cumulative change will alter our economic future beyond all recognition. Here are two of them.

General Electric (GE) is now mass-producing their ?Smart Energy LED Bulb,? which can screw into a conventional socket and produce the same amount of light as a 60-watt bulb, but consume only nine watts of power.

Some 22% of America?s electric power supply is used for lighting, and this bulb could cut our total consumption by 17.6%.

Other bulb manufacturers are getting into the game, like Philips, Osram, Toshiba, and Panasonic, which are already offering more efficient designs. The downside is that, while they last 25,000 hours, or ten times longer than a conventional incandescent bulb, they will initially cost $15-$25.

Economies of scale are expected to bring costs down dramatically in a few years. The Department of Energy has selected Seattle as the test bed for an all LED (light emitting diode) public lighting system.

Here is another game changer for our energy woes. If you double conventional car engine efficiency, US oil consumption drops by half. This is not so hard to do. The US government has already mandated that US car makers achieve an average fleet mileage of 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025.

They are hoping this will lower the cost of gasoline to $1 a gallon by then. They may get their wish this year instead.

One of the first things you learn in a freshman level physics class is how inefficient an internal combustion engine is, using hundreds of moving parts operating at 500 degrees to convert only 25% of the energy input into to motion.?

Tesla?s (TSLA) entire electric drive train has just 11 moving parts, operate at room temperature, and convert 80% of its energy into motion. When they go to the mass market in two years with the $35,000 Tesla 3, it will have a huge impact on our overall energy picture

Add this in with the surging supplies of American shale oil, and the utter collapse of the price of Texas tea (USO) over the past six months is suddenly starts to make incredible sense.

 

LED Lights

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/LED-Lights.jpg 425 364 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-01-13 01:08:102016-01-13 01:08:10The ?Black Swan? Solution to Our Energy Problems
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (XIV) January 12, 2016

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/slider-05-trader-alert.jpg 316 600 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-01-12 10:19:372016-01-12 10:19:37Trade Alert - (XIV) January 12, 2016
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (SPY) January 12, 2016

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more

0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-01-12 10:05:212016-01-12 10:05:21Trade Alert - (SPY) January 12, 2016
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Legal Disclaimer

There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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