The bull market has at least two years to run, and possibly more.
This is the prediction that I have been hammering away at listeners with at my many speaking engagements, webinars, and global strategy luncheons all year.
But don?t take my word for it.
This also happens to be the opinion of my friend, Leon Cooperman, the legendary hedge fund manager at Omega Advisors.
I ran into my aged mentor in New York where we jointly analyzed and dissected our investment future.
Leon thinks that at a 17.5X earnings multiple, valuation are OK. He expects a total return for the S&P 500 (SPY) of 7-9%, including a 2% dividend. His outlook for all fixed income investments (TLT) is extremely negative.
There are only four possible causes of a recession from here:
1) Corporate earnings fall. But they are, ex energy,? in fact increasing at a respectable pace.
2) Stocks become overvalued. However, 16.5X is in the middle of its historic earnings multiple range. Many of the largest firms are trading at big market discounts. Apple (AAPL) is the prime example. It is the most widely owned stock in the world, and sells at a very modest 11X current cash earnings.
During the 2000 dotcom bubble top, Apple sold for 34X earnings (which today would value the company at a staggering $2.3 trillion, or 14% of US GDP!).
3) A hostile Federal Reserve would certainly take the punch bowl away. With deflation running amok globally, it is unlikely that the Fed moves until later this year. When they do, the action will be modest.
4) A geopolitical crisis would certainly throw a spanner in the works. These are unforecastable, and all the current ones (ISIS, Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, and the Ukraine) are inconsequential.
Cooperman observes that bear markets don?t arise from an immaculate conception, but a visible turn in the economic data flow. Given that, of the hundreds of data points Leon tracks on a weekly or months basis, not a single one is pointing towards recession.
That said, he cautions that the market historically peaks an average of seven months before every recession. Stock markets also rise an average of 30 months after the first Fed rate hike, taking in a typical 9.5% in the first year, which brings us to his two year upside target.
Don?t get too excited. The high returns of recent past years are now firmly in the year view mirror. The years ahead are more likely to bring a couple of yards forward and a cloud of dust, much like we witnessed in 2015.
Leon is urging his clients to take the most negative stance possible regarding their bond holdings. That means shortening duration (maturities), and moving up the credit curve. Shorter and safer is the way to go.
Avoid junk bonds like the plague, which are among the most overvalued in history.
A 2% GDP growth rate and a 2% inflation rate should give us a 4% yield on ten year Treasury bonds, not the lowly 1.89% we see on our screens today.
Look out below!
Cooperman is one of the few individuals I drop everything to listen to. He spent 25 years at Goldman Sachs (GS), eventually rising to the head of research.
He took off to start his own hedge fund in 1991, Omega Advisors, the same year I did, and became an early investor in my own fund. His returns have since been stellar, and Leon is regularly ranked as one of the top ten investment strategists in the country.
Ignore Leon at your peril.
Before we parted, Leon have me his short list of favorite stocks to own, many of which you already know and love from reading the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader. They include Google (GOOG), (GM), Citibank (C), (PCLN), (AER).
As a ringer, he also threw in (GULTU:US on NASDAQ), a high yield royalty trade spun off by none other than Freeport McMoRan (FCX), one of my biggest earnings last year.
With that, I thanked Leon for his always sage and prescient advice, and promised to revisit these issues with him in New York next month.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Leon-Cooperman.jpg306421DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2016-04-25 01:08:392016-04-25 01:08:39Why the Bull Market Has Two Years to Run
?If you advertise an interest in buying collies, a lot of people will call hoping to sell you their cocker spaniels,? said Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffet.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Cocker-Spaniel-e1431349483917.jpg247300DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2016-04-25 01:05:552016-04-25 01:05:55April 25, 2016 - Quote of the Day
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png00DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2016-04-22 09:13:012016-04-22 09:13:01April 22, 2016 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
Featured Trade: (POPULATION BOMB ECHOES), (POT), (MOS), (AGU), (WEAT), (CORN), (SOYB), (TAKE A RIDE IN THE SHORT JUNK ETF), (SJB), (JNK), (HYG), (THE COOLEST TOMBSTONE CONTEST)
Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc. (POT) The Mosaic Company (MOS) Agrium Inc. (AGU) Teucrium Wheat ETF (WEAT) Teucrium Corn ETF (CORN) Teucrium Soybean ETF (SOYB) ProShares Short High Yield (SJB) SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bd (HYG)
When you look at the profusion of new ETF?s being launched today, you find that they almost always correspond with market tops.
The higher the market, the greater the demand for the underlying, and the more leverage traders pay for it. The resulting returns for investors are disastrous.
But occasionally a blind squirrel finds an acorn, and if you fire buckshot long enough, you hit a barn.
That?s why I am getting interested in the ProShares Short High Yield ETF (SJB). After riding the bull move in junk all the way up with (JNK), (HYG), I have recently turned negative on the sector.
Junk bonds have moved too far too fast. Current spreads for junk paper are now only 200 basis points over equivalent term Treasury bonds, and investors at these levels are in no way being compensated for their risk.
If the stock market starts to roll over this summer, then the junk bond market will follow it in the elevator going down to the ladies underwear department in the basement.
Keep in mind that when shorting the junk market, you run into the same problem you have with the (TBT), a leveraged short ETF for the Treasury bond market.
Buy the (SJB) and you are short a 6.74% coupon, which works out to a monthly costs of more than 50 basis points. That is a big nut to cover. So timing for entry into this fund will be crucial.
Is Shorting Junk Bonds the Way to Go??
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Car-Junk.jpg225322Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2016-04-22 01:07:422016-04-22 01:07:42Take a Ride in the Short Junk ETF
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png00DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2016-04-21 09:11:502016-04-21 09:11:50April 21, 2016 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
John, you make me laugh. Following you has been awesome. If it weren?t for you, I'd have been a mega bear for the last three years.
Cheers
Justin Western Australia
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/John-Thomas3-e1430172482180.jpg400337Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2016-04-21 01:06:172016-04-21 01:06:17Testimonial
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