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DougD

April 25, 2016

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
April 25, 2016
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(WHY THE BULL MARKET HAS TWO YEARS TO RUN),
(SPY), (TLT),
(TESTIMONIAL),
(QUANTITATIVE EASING EXPLAINED TO A 12 YEAR OLD)

SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)

?

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DougD

Why the Bull Market Has Two Years to Run

Diary, Newsletter

The bull market has at least two years to run, and possibly more.

This is the prediction that I have been hammering away at listeners with at my many speaking engagements, webinars, and global strategy luncheons all year.

But don?t take my word for it.

This also happens to be the opinion of my friend, Leon Cooperman, the legendary hedge fund manager at Omega Advisors.

I ran into my aged mentor in New York where we jointly analyzed and dissected our investment future.

Leon thinks that at a 17.5X earnings multiple, valuation are OK. He expects a total return for the S&P 500 (SPY) of 7-9%, including a 2% dividend. His outlook for all fixed income investments (TLT) is extremely negative.

There are only four possible causes of a recession from here:

1) Corporate earnings fall. But they are, ex energy,? in fact increasing at a respectable pace.

2) Stocks become overvalued. However, 16.5X is in the middle of its historic earnings multiple range. Many of the largest firms are trading at big market discounts. Apple (AAPL) is the prime example. It is the most widely owned stock in the world, and sells at a very modest 11X current cash earnings.

During the 2000 dotcom bubble top, Apple sold for 34X earnings (which today would value the company at a staggering $2.3 trillion, or 14% of US GDP!).

3) A hostile Federal Reserve would certainly take the punch bowl away. With deflation running amok globally, it is unlikely that the Fed moves until later this year. When they do, the action will be modest.

4) A geopolitical crisis would certainly throw a spanner in the works. These are unforecastable, and all the current ones (ISIS, Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, and the Ukraine) are inconsequential.

Cooperman observes that bear markets don?t arise from an immaculate conception, but a visible turn in the economic data flow. Given that, of the hundreds of data points Leon tracks on a weekly or months basis, not a single one is pointing towards recession.

That said, he cautions that the market historically peaks an average of seven months before every recession. Stock markets also rise an average of 30 months after the first Fed rate hike, taking in a typical 9.5% in the first year, which brings us to his two year upside target.

Don?t get too excited. The high returns of recent past years are now firmly in the year view mirror. The years ahead are more likely to bring a couple of yards forward and a cloud of dust, much like we witnessed in 2015.

Leon is urging his clients to take the most negative stance possible regarding their bond holdings. That means shortening duration (maturities), and moving up the credit curve. Shorter and safer is the way to go.

Avoid junk bonds like the plague, which are among the most overvalued in history.

A 2% GDP growth rate and a 2% inflation rate should give us a 4% yield on ten year Treasury bonds, not the lowly 1.89% we see on our screens today.

Look out below!

Cooperman is one of the few individuals I drop everything to listen to. He spent 25 years at Goldman Sachs (GS), eventually rising to the head of research.

He took off to start his own hedge fund in 1991, Omega Advisors, the same year I did, and became an early investor in my own fund. His returns have since been stellar, and Leon is regularly ranked as one of the top ten investment strategists in the country.

Ignore Leon at your peril.

Before we parted, Leon have me his short list of favorite stocks to own, many of which you already know and love from reading the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader. They include Google (GOOG), (GM), Citibank (C), (PCLN), (AER).

As a ringer, he also threw in (GULTU:US on NASDAQ), a high yield royalty trade spun off by none other than Freeport McMoRan (FCX), one of my biggest earnings last year.

With that, I thanked Leon for his always sage and prescient advice, and promised to revisit these issues with him in New York next month.

$INDU
TLT

Leon Cooperman

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Leon-Cooperman.jpg 306 421 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-04-25 01:08:392016-04-25 01:08:39Why the Bull Market Has Two Years to Run
DougD

April 25, 2016 - Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

?If you advertise an interest in buying collies, a lot of people will call hoping to sell you their cocker spaniels,? said Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffet.

Cocker Spaniel

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Cocker-Spaniel-e1431349483917.jpg 247 300 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-04-25 01:05:552016-04-25 01:05:55April 25, 2016 - Quote of the Day
DougD

April 22, 2016 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-04-22 09:13:012016-04-22 09:13:01April 22, 2016 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
DougD

April 22, 2016

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
April 22, 2016
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(POPULATION BOMB ECHOES),
(POT), (MOS), (AGU), (WEAT), (CORN), (SOYB),
(TAKE A RIDE IN THE SHORT JUNK ETF),
(SJB), (JNK), (HYG),
(THE COOLEST TOMBSTONE CONTEST)

Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc. (POT)
The Mosaic Company (MOS)
Agrium Inc. (AGU)
Teucrium Wheat ETF (WEAT)
Teucrium Corn ETF (CORN)
Teucrium Soybean ETF (SOYB)
ProShares Short High Yield (SJB)
SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (JNK)
iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bd (HYG)

?

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Take a Ride in the Short Junk ETF

Diary, Free Research, Newsletter

When you look at the profusion of new ETF?s being launched today, you find that they almost always correspond with market tops.

The higher the market, the greater the demand for the underlying, and the more leverage traders pay for it. The resulting returns for investors are disastrous.

But occasionally a blind squirrel finds an acorn, and if you fire buckshot long enough, you hit a barn.

That?s why I am getting interested in the ProShares Short High Yield ETF (SJB). After riding the bull move in junk all the way up with (JNK), (HYG), I have recently turned negative on the sector.

Junk bonds have moved too far too fast. Current spreads for junk paper are now only 200 basis points over equivalent term Treasury bonds, and investors at these levels are in no way being compensated for their risk.

If the stock market starts to roll over this summer, then the junk bond market will follow it in the elevator going down to the ladies underwear department in the basement.

Keep in mind that when shorting the junk market, you run into the same problem you have with the (TBT), a leveraged short ETF for the Treasury bond market.

Buy the (SJB) and you are short a 6.74% coupon, which works out to a monthly costs of more than 50 basis points. That is a big nut to cover. So timing for entry into this fund will be crucial.

SJB

HYG

 

Car-JunkIs Shorting Junk Bonds the Way to Go??

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DougD

April 21, 2016 - MDT Alert (VRTX)

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-04-21 11:24:472016-04-21 11:24:47April 21, 2016 - MDT Alert (VRTX)
DougD

April 21, 2016 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-04-21 09:11:502016-04-21 09:11:50April 21, 2016 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
DougD

April 21, 2016

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
April 21, 2016
Fiat Lux

SPECIAL SPACE X ISSUE

Featured Trade:
(WILL SPACE X BE YOUR NEXT TEN BAGGER?)
? (TSLA), (SCTY), (BA), (LMT)
TESTIMONIAL

Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA)
SolarCity Corporation (SCTY)
The Boeing Company (BA)
Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-04-21 01:08:112016-04-21 01:08:11April 21, 2016
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Testimonial

Diary, Newsletter, Testimonials

John, you make me laugh. Following you has been awesome. If it weren?t for you, I'd have been a mega bear for the last three years.

Cheers

Justin
Western Australia

John Thomas

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Legal Disclaimer

There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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