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Arthur Henry

Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or Ducking That Punch

Diary, Newsletter

When I trained for the Japan National Karate Championships, fought in Tokyo's fabled Nippon Budokan 45 years ago, there was one rule my sensei never failed to beat into me.

Ducking the punch is far more important than landing one.

Certainly stock market traders took that rule to heart last week.

Four out of five days, a weak US dollar triggered a stock selloff in Europe that led to triple digit declines at the New York opening.

Yes, humble managers are becoming aware that they are not smart enough to achieve the returns they have made in 2017, therefore they are getting nervous.

In every case shares battled back to recover the losses.

The week ended with a push, and stocks largely unchanged. It was all a lot of work for absolutely nothing.

The Volatility Index (VIX) made a rare visit to the $14 handle, whereupon the entire planet sold into it.

You can blame the advanced age of this bull market, now approaching an eye popping nine years old.

Shares have not seen more than a 2% decline for 62 weeks, the most extended since 1965.

Indeed, we have seen the second longest bull market of the past half century, defined as a pull back from the top of more than 20%.

To beat the record, stocks have to rise for six more years to match the torrid 15 year run that started with the US national railroad strike in 1946 and ended with the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962.

Looking at the chart below what is truly fascinating is how short bear markets are, usually measures in mere months.

You have to go all the way back to the Great Depression to find a bear that lasted two years and eight months.

Yes, hanging on to your stocks always IS the right thing to do.

The bigger questions is: Why aren't you leveraging 2:1 like a hedge fund does?

Much of the flip flopping this week can be traces to the violent evolution of the tax bill, which seemed to change shape by the hour, and is currently opposed by 59% of the voting population.

As if this weren't hard enough, the Republicans at the last minutes decided to also make it a health care bill, wiping out coverage for 13 million.

Here's your math.

Passing the House was the easy lift, where the Republicans hold a 56-seat majority. Still, it was only able to garner a 10-vote win.

The tax bill next has to pass the Senate, where Republicans hold a paper thin two seat majority, and five have already expressed their opposition.

My bet is that a bill will pass sometime in Q1, 2018 in highly diluted form, without the loss of deductions for mortgage interest, local and state taxes, or an estate tax repeal.

I also think the bill will fail its first vote in the Senate. That will NOT be a good day to be long the market.

Without this funding, the corporate tax rate will be cut to only 25% for the few who pay them.

This will be called a great victory.

This bill could be passed today, but it may take the GOP leadership three months to figure this out.

The net effect on the economy will be nil, and we can all go back to watching corporate earnings as the principal driver of share prices, as they should be.

I expect this will drive the indexes to new highs for at least the next one or two years.

Ironically, it will also move forward the next recession, as stimulating an already hot economy will move forward the next inverted yield curve and interest rate spike.

We could well be solidly in a bear market and recession before the next presidential election.

Certainly the global junk bond markets think so, where we saw the first signs of the smart money sitting down before the music stops playing.

The SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) managed a 2.3% swan dive to a three month low.

Certainly, prices had reached insane levels, with the spreads on some issues falling to a scant 200 basis points over US ten year Treasury bonds. In Europe junk yield are BELOW Treasury yields, if you can find any to buy.

However, these days insanity doesn't stop anyone from doing anything.

That's Why I recommended a tactical short position in junk bonds (SJB) a few weeks ago (click here for Take A Ride in the New Short Junk ETF)

The big revelation for me last week is that I finally understood WHY people were pouring money into bitcoin, which recently touched $8,000.

In one week, it crashed 20%, then soared 30%. It is almost the only place in
the world where you can find this kind of volatility.

I'm sure tulip prices saw the same price action in the early 17th century.

Trading looks to be dull, brutish, and boring in this holiday shortened week. Expect markets to remain flat ahead of the Senate vote on the bill, which I expect to fail.

Despite these hair-tearing trading conditions, I managed to push my Trade Alert performance up to new highs, adding 274.15% over the past eight years, generating an average annual return of 34.63%.

I am up 3.54% so far in November, and 56.62% over the past 12 months.

To leave you on a positive note, it's looking like your entire financial future may be determined by the 20% of eligible voters who turn out to vote for a new Senator on December 12.

On Monday, November 20, at 10:00 AM the Index of Leading Economic Indicators is published, a forward-looking basket of ten monthly data points.

On Tuesday, November 21 at 6:00 AM EST we get October Existing Home Sales. Since the data predates the Republican plan to deny mortgage interest and real estate tax deductions, the data should remain hot.

On Wednesday, November 22, most of the week's data bunch up due to the holidays. We obtain October Durable Goods at 8:30 AM. Weekly Jobless claims are out at the same time. October Consumer Sentiment comes out at 10:00 AM.

The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report is out at 10:30 AM.

Thursday, November 23 the markets are closed for the US Thanksgiving holidays.

On Friday, November 24 at 1:00 PM, we receive the Baker-Hughes Rig Count, which lately has started to turn up again.

As for me, I will be foraging through the High Sierras, looking for the ideal Christmas Tree to take home. My USDA permit allows be to take two.

I Meet Some of the Most Interesting People

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Arthur Henry https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Arthur Henry2017-11-20 01:07:282017-11-20 01:07:28Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or Ducking That Punch
Arthur Henry

Sign Up Now for Text Messaging of Trade Alerts

Diary, Newsletter

As a large number of new subscribers just poured in, I invite them to sign up for our text messaging service.

Paid subscribers are able to receive instantaneous text messages of my proprietary Trade Alerts. This eliminates frustrating delays caused by traffic surges on the Internet itself, and by your local server.

This service is provided free to paid members of the Global Trading Dispatch or Mad Hedge Fund Trader Pro.

To activate your free service, please contact our customer support team at support@madhedgefundtrader.com. In your request, please insert "Free Trade Alerts" as the subject, include your mobile number and if you are located outside the United States then please include your country code.

Time is of the essence in the volatile markets. Individual traders need to grab every advantage they can. This is an important one.

Good luck and good trading.

John Thomas

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/john-suit-e1507749585324.jpg 201 300 Arthur Henry https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Arthur Henry2017-11-20 01:06:482017-11-20 01:06:48Sign Up Now for Text Messaging of Trade Alerts
Arthur Henry

Trade Alert - (TLT) November 17, 2017 EXPIRATION

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Alert.jpg 259 294 Arthur Henry https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Arthur Henry2017-11-17 16:49:342017-11-17 16:49:34Trade Alert - (TLT) November 17, 2017 EXPIRATION
Arthur Henry

Trade Alert - (TLT) November 17, 2017

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Alert.jpg 259 294 Arthur Henry https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Arthur Henry2017-11-17 16:49:342017-11-17 16:49:34Trade Alert - (TLT) November 17, 2017
Douglas Davenport

November 17, 2017 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Douglas Davenport https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Douglas Davenport2017-11-17 09:22:442017-11-17 09:22:44November 17, 2017 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
Arthur Henry

November 17, 2017

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 17, 2017
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(WHY ENERGY WILL MAKE YOUR 2018 PERFORMANCE),
(USO), (XOM), (CVX), (OXY), (EPD), (AMLP), (MPLX),
(WHY YOUR OTHER INVESTMENT NEWSLETTER IS SO DANGEROUS)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Arthur Henry https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Arthur Henry2017-11-17 01:08:052017-11-17 01:08:05November 17, 2017
Arthur Henry

Why Fracking Will Make Your 2018 Performance

Diary, Newsletter

I have traveled in the Middle East for 50 years.

When I first hitch hiked across North Africa in 1968, camels were everywhere, and most of the population was barefoot.

These are the things I recall when dictator Muammar Gaddafi was deporting me from Libya.

When I grew up a few years later, I covered the neighborhood wars for The Economist magazine during the 1970's.

While representing Morgan Stanley in the firm's dealings with the Saudi royal family in the 1980's, I paused to stick my finger in the crack in the Riyadh city gate left by a spear thrown by King Abdul Aziz al Saud when he captured the city in the 1920's, thus creating modern Saudi Arabia.

They only mistake I made in my Texas fracking investments is that I sold out too soon in 2005, when natural gas traded at $5 and missed the spike to $17.

By now, the only camels you ever see are tourist rides at the foot of the pyramids, the racing camels of the Gulf Emirates.

So let me tell you about the price of oil.

It's going up.

No matter how much oil there is in the world, it is tough to beat a global synchronized economic recovery.

China, Europe, and Japan all running hot at the same time. I bet you didn't know that all of these economies are currently beating America's 3% growth rate, in some cases by miles.

Giving a bow to my new long term forecasts, I don't see the end of global quantitative easing until October 2018. The current bull market in stocks should end in mid 2019, and the next recession won't hit until 2020.

So there is ample room to get one more trade here in oil.

You should do well buying majors like Exxon Mobile (XOM) or Chevron (CVX). You can probably beat those returns through investing in Occidental Petroleum (OXY).

But I'll tell you where the real money will be made:

Master Limited Partnerships, or MLP's.

I always find it a useful exercise to sift through the wreckage of past investment disasters. Not only are there valuable lessons to be learned, sometimes decent trades emerge.

I have been doing that lately in the energy sector, a hedge fund favorite these days, and guess what?

MLP's are back. And no, I'm not talking about the Maui Land and Pineapple Company (MLP) (yes, there is such a thing!).

But these are not your father's MLP's.

With overnight cash yields still at a paltry 0.50%, the allure of high yielding MLP's is still there.

Let me start with my investment thesis.

It is always better to invest in an asset class that has its crash behind it (energy) than ahead of it (equities, bonds).

And lets face it, the final bottom in oil at $25 is in.

We may bounce around in a $45-$60 range for a while. But eventually, I expect a global synchronized economic recovery to take it higher.

And while I have never been a fan of OPEC, they are showing rare discipline in honoring the production quotas negotiated in late 2016.

That eliminates much of the downside from MLP's for the next 18 months and makes it one of the more attractive risk/reward trades out there.

The fact is that the energy revolution in the U.S. remains very much intact.

Keep a laser like focus on the weekly Baker Hughes rig counts, as I do, and you see that we have been on a relentless upturn for nearly two years.

Except that this time it's different.

Thanks to hyper accelerating technology (yes, there's that term again), new wells employ a fraction of the labor of the old ones, and are therefore more profitable.

That means they can function, and even prosper, with a much lower oil price.

Since everything is political these days, I would remiss in not bringing this unsavory issue up.

To say that the new administration is friendly to the oil industry would be the understatement of the century.

Look no further than the Keystone pipeline, which after languishing for eight years, saw approval from the new president during his first week in office.

That means lower taxes, more subsidies, and less regulation of the business, all profit boosting measures.

There is another angle too.

By now, you should all be experts on inflation plays, since you read my opus on the subject in my newsletter only yesterday.

Oil is a great inflation play. As prices rise, consumers can pay ever-higher prices for energy.

The great thing for MLP investors is that many revenue streams are inflation-linked according to fixed formulas, much like TIPS, (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities).

But you have to be clever by half to take advantage of these new trends.

Thanks to the crash, the surviving MLP's are now a much better quality investment.

Balance sheet quality has improved as a result of deleveraging in the last three years, and the worst of the ratings downgrade cycle is behind us.

Importantly, some $50 billion- $60 billion worth of growth opportunities for MLPs are expected during FY2017-2020.

That makes the industry one of the great secular growth stories out there today.

As an old fracker myself I can tell you that the potential of the revolutionary new technology has barely been scratched.

Thanks to technology that is improving by the day, a Saudi Arabia's worth of energy reserves remain to be exploited, and maybe two, turning the US into an energy-exporting powerhouse.

Industry experts expect MLP distributions to grow by 3%-5% annually over the coming years. Few other industries can beat this.

That means avoiding upstream Exploration and Production companies; where there is still a ton of risk, and placing your bets on midstream companies that operate pipelines.

And by midstream I don't just mean pipelines, but also processing facilities for natural gas liquids and storage and terminal facilities.

You especially want to look at companies with high barriers to entry and attractive assets in high- growth and low-cost production regions.

Companies with a sustainable cost advantage, operated by experienced management with proven geological prowess are further pluses.

MLP's also stack up nicely as a diversifier for your overall portfolio.

Over longer time periods MLP's have generated similar returns to equities, with similar to slightly higher levels of volatility.

Historically they have traded at lower yields than high yield bonds, but currently they are yielding 250 basis points more.

And now for the warning labels.

This is not a new story.

As you can see from the charts below, MLP's have been rallying hard since oil bottomed in January, 2016.

Still, with yields in the 7%-10% range, a certain amount of pain is worth it.

Still interested?

Take a look at the Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP) (6.11%), the Global X MLP Energy Infrastructure ETF (MLPX) (6.11%), and Valero Energy Partners LP (VLP) (4.72%).

By the way, can any readers tell me if my favorite restaurant in Kuwait, the ship Al Boom, is still in business? The lamb kebab there was to die for.

china-installed-electricity-capacity
us-energy-consumption
comparison-of-net-petroleum

fracking-schenario
Don't Throw Out the Baby With the Bathwater

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Fracking-Schenario-e1478662255968.jpg 359 400 Arthur Henry https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Arthur Henry2017-11-17 01:07:022017-11-17 01:07:02Why Fracking Will Make Your 2018 Performance
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 16, 2017 - MDT Alert (THC)

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2017-11-16 12:57:132017-11-16 12:57:13November 16, 2017 - MDT Alert (THC)
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 16, 2017 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2017-11-16 08:53:062017-11-16 08:53:06November 16, 2017 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
Arthur Henry

November 16, 2017

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments

November 16, 2017
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(STANDBY FOR THE COMING GOLDEN AGE OF INVESTMENT),
(SPY), (INDU), (FXE), (FXY), (UNG), (EEM), (USO),
(TLT), (NSANY), (TSLA)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Arthur Henry https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Arthur Henry2017-11-16 01:07:032017-11-16 01:07:03November 16, 2017
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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